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"US Equities: What Is There To Say?"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In 213 words (surprisingly this time not in the form of just one sentence from this particular Joyceian stream-of-Austrian-consciouness) Diapason's Sean Corrigan does a better summation of "the market" than can be found in any expansive weekend Op-Ed or 100-click slideshow "explaining" all that has happened, and claiming to tell you "all you need to know."

From Sean Corrigan, CIO of Diapason Commodities

US equities, what is there to say?

Successive new highs; record buybacks (Miller-Modigliani and ESOP rules, OK!); multi-year heaviest mutual fund buying; vol a whisker off its Crisis Era lows; margin debt rising as fast as in 2000 and 2007; put-call ratios depressed; cumulative A/D in the stratosphere; junk bonds near yield lows; leveraged loan prices back at Blue Sky, mid-2007 levels—and now the jobs numbers giving everyone an all over warm glow.

The only thing to argue against this is that it’s simply all too good to be true; it’s a function of the crazed, macroeconomic theorizing of a sixty year-old, wannabe-Oz sitting in an office on 20th St. and Constitution Avenue in Washington, D.C., who almost got on the congressional record exhorting his interlocutor to quite belly-aching about the income on his aged mother’s savings and to get her into stocks instead.

For all we can surmise that this is just another in a long series of bubbles, each inflated to ward off the reckoning due from the collapse of its lengthening family tree of predecessors, this all-encompassing experiment not just with our livelihoods but with the wider structure of our very society shows no signs of being called of but, if anything, intensified in scale and extended in geography.

 

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Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:29 | 3314597 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Umm....BOOYAH?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:34 | 3314605 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Ben is telling you very clearly...invest in equities and don't hold onto cash. The velocity of money is key to Ben's strategy, but this is deadly for him and it will be the sword he falls on. He has no chance of exiting the Fed's position without throwing a grenade into the ponzi. Oh.....and one more message from Ben. Gold is not money....and don't buy it.......much better off owning NFLX

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:46 | 3314629 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

  1. Paper wealth~never does everyone get out in time; are you really in the know?
  2. Nominal returns~Zimbabwe ring a bell? 
Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:05 | 3314662 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Thunder Dome - Two men enter, one man leaves.

 

In a zero sum game......never be the zero. Do you know where your 401K is?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:14 | 3314680 DOT
DOT's picture

My Broker's name is Sertatm  and he says...."Good nite's sleep garanteed"

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:32 | 3314699 SafelyGraze
Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:37 | 3314703 Stackers
Stackers's picture

In for a pound in for a penny.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:09 | 3314742 Acet
Acet's picture

Well, we were talking about Ponzies, so I reckon Bitcoin is well within the theme.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:29 | 3314775 fiftybagger
fiftybagger's picture

Good article.  Just added it to the blog.  Lotsa FUD against Bitcoin.  TPTB know what it is and have for some time.

The End of Ordinary Money

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:52 | 3314934 Pool Shark
Pool Shark's picture

 

 

Anonymity & Security?

Uh, how about physical gold?

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:14 | 3314745 Master_Blaster
Master_Blaster's picture

That's my line....

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:01 | 3314945 booboo
booboo's picture

I used to get a "warm glow" in the back seat of my 63 Impala with my gal. Now if I get a warm glow at night it means I am pissing down my leg.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 16:50 | 3315537 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

...unlike most sheeple in Amerika who AREN'T pissing down their own leg.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:46 | 3314797 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

The guys who make the markets do...

The rest?

Well, someone's got to lose.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:39 | 3314708 LG_Knight
LG_Knight's picture

NFLX was the easy call vs. cash six months ago...when I posted as such and was subsequently roasted on this site.

Now cash and gold are the right calls, even if they deliver little return for some time. It is false euphoria time, making it easy to foresee a storm on the horizon.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:53 | 3314811 yatikto
yatikto's picture

His exit strategy is to put the debt in a box and throw away the key.  Ben can exit whenever he wants to, because US is not Zimbabwe; no one is going to call US out on it.  Anyone who does will be silenced.  The value of the dollar = US military power.

The triumverate of the world is money, power, sex.  If any of those legs goes, the whole thing falls down.

We are witnessing the expression of liberal gospel:  Money for nothing, chicks for free.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:42 | 3314626 Vampyroteuthis ...
Vampyroteuthis infernalis's picture

I am now spending lots of time thinking about what will replace the US Republic. Obviously, our Republic can not survive when about half the population is unemployable, all of our production has been shipped else where and cronie-capitalism reigns surpreme. Multi-nationals have bet the farm on endless growh overseas, boy, are they going to be dissappointed. Congress is dysfunctional at best.

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:33 | 3315005 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> .... what will replace the US Republic.

 

What is martial law and foreign troops?

Mon, 03/11/2013 - 09:08 | 3318953 phalfa5
phalfa5's picture

that is correct...  and thank you for answering in question form.  Now on to Double Jepordy where the pain doubles

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:49 | 3314716 wanwer
wanwer's picture

How do you play it?  That is the question.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:25 | 3314767 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Got gold?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:29 | 3314885 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

I always recommend people to establish, manage, and make regular contributions to their their GO1(d) or SI1(v) account(s).

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:56 | 3315052 B-rock
B-rock's picture

Buy every dip -- all day long -- with a tight stop.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:09 | 3314740 gould's fisker
gould's fisker's picture

Pretty soon Cramer's new word will be "bubbliciousness."

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:38 | 3314611 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

Yea, yea, you Tyler Turbans think you know it all, but the guys on TV tell me every thing is great. Do you have a TV show? No, you don't HAVE a TV show. So I'm not listening to you. There.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:41 | 3314624 jwoop66
jwoop66's picture

You should be a motivational speaker.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:49 | 3314639 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

I work for the Dept of Justice. My mom got me the job.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:40 | 3314707 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

...and HER momma served shrimp... and her momma before served shrimp... and her momma before that served shrimp...

~~~

but NOW... you're getting the shrmp served to you ~ RIGHT?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:24 | 3314762 atm0sphere
atm0sphere's picture

the resposnse I liked most from someone was "yeah well I watch MSNBC because it aligns with my worldview, fox doesn't" to which I replied "so you're saying you'd rather take the manure on a spoon up your ass, rather than on a knife up your ass."

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:37 | 3314613 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

BUT if you had been long US equities since Jan 1, you would have made a lot of money. And if you had been long precious metals since Jan 1, you would have been bleeding. Ergo just go long stocks. That's where you can become filthy rich.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:41 | 3314623 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Great! I'll go back in time one year, sell the PMs and buy the stocks, come back to now, sell stocks and buy PMs. Just one thing. Does anybody, perhaps,  have a time machine to lend? Please.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:07 | 3314664 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I wasn't aware all life was created on Jan 1.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:41 | 3314711 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

all life is always created on the EXACT day of the chart bottom of whatever you're shilling at the moment...

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:41 | 3314787 negative rates
negative rates's picture

It's not, but it is taken by that day.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:28 | 3314774 in4mayshun
in4mayshun's picture

Yes, buy the stock market at all time highs-that has always worked out very well.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:39 | 3314786 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

And then one day the market will collapse and you will be dirt poor....  or perhaps you will be prudent enough to cash out ... but then what will you do with the cash before it turns into toilet paper.

I have never been a PM type - but I am oh so Mother Fucking Long gold I can't even see the end -  this fucker is going to blow - there is NO doubt about that.

And anyone holding stocks, bonds, property, cash is going to be eating dog food.

Enjoy your riches while you can brother. 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:03 | 3314827 OpenEyes
OpenEyes's picture

Your avatar caught my eye

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:00 | 3315058 dog breath
dog breath's picture

your jedi mind tricks don't work on me

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:34 | 3314900 AmCockerSpaniel
AmCockerSpaniel's picture

>>>>> Ergo just go long stocks. That's where you can become filthy rich.<<<<< It's also were you can loss it ALL. It's a rigged game. Know that, and keep physical GOLD. It will never be worthless! It is said; "In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king".

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:35 | 3314901 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

Robotrader, is that you?

How ya been, I must admit I miss your irrational optimism and hindsight calls.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 16:58 | 3315554 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Do you have your profits in hand or are they still just numbers in the database - a perception of money that may or may not be there next year?

If you did cash some out, have you filed your taxes yet?  What did lecherous Uncle Sam take so he could give it to foreign banks and dictators and/or rebels?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:37 | 3314614 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

There is the apple, and then, there is the gravity... will the upward momentum of this apple always be stronger than the gravity? Doubtful.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:40 | 3314621 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The higher it goes, the scarier it gets. The economy has not changed, and as every ZHer knows, this will end with massive bubbles popping or with hyperinflation. I am betting on hyperinflation, since the only hope to pay the debt is to tell everyone we have 2% inflation while prices go up 20%. When that happens, 18% of the debt goes away!

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:54 | 3314651 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

What I would like to see is a ZH stress test. With minds smarter than my own, changing variables to see what systemic fallout would come. I know it's NOT going to last, but I'm stumped to see what can crash it.

In the past few years, they amp up the printing. What's the actual limit to what they can actually do before they simply can't? Which variables can derail the stock market surge. Right now, all we are seeing is straight up. Fundamentals at any mark don't matter.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:09 | 3314670 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Put the 10yr at 4.5% and everybody fails.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:39 | 3314705 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Only the important people like the federal government or large banks steaming piles of mortgage and other debt crap.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:01 | 3314824 merizobeach
merizobeach's picture

"I'm stumped to see what can crash it."

That is the big question.  In a word: war.  Ben, Jamie, Lloyd, and the folks at the BIS have many of the macro variables in their hands already, including the US military and the bond markets among myriad others.  The only real variables not in their hands, as I imagine it, are China and Russia, and the occasional loose cannon from NK, Japan, or Israel (and Vietnam, but they've been smart enough not to show their hand yet).  What if these progressively escalating territorial disputes with China continue to escalate to where more than just water cannons are fired and fighter jets only scrambled?  The US is bound by treaty to back Japan in military conflicts, and any hint of US military intervention against China, and within their imagined sovereign territory, could escalate economic conflict such as China dumping its USD and UST holdings at auction until its liquidated.  The last time China did something like this, they suddenly dumped around US$100 billion in the spring of 2008 in response to the negative comments in the freshly published 2007 Human Rights Report; the dollar and global markets plunged.  At the time, China's USD holdings were a small fraction of what they are today.  Surely they would lose a lot of 'value' in liquidating $2 trillion in US paper, but they could diversify into every other countries monies while crashing the dollar.  Then there'd really be war.

Sun, 03/10/2013 - 01:59 | 3316395 Doña K
Doña K's picture

Sadly for Japan, that treaty does not cover the Senkaku islands. However, the US has been reaffirming that it does. Time will tell if China dares.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 15:31 | 3315349 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

The price of oil, as always.

You can't blow bubbles without making a speculative bubble there too and the economy will tank once it starts crushing business margins (to the tune of 0.5% of GDP per $10 increase).

 

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:36 | 3314782 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

If that happens the whole system will collapse... I see deflationary collapse

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:52 | 3315046 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

You see deflation, but you're long gold?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:40 | 3314622 malikai
malikai's picture

Where is RoboTrader when you need him?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:42 | 3314712 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

walking in L.A.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:52 | 3314808 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

So, that bullet train between LA and Fresno(?) ain't finished yet?  Whocoudanode?  :>D

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:26 | 3315140 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Ran out of 'bullets' don'tcha kno [among other things]...

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:42 | 3315022 resurger
resurger's picture

lol

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:45 | 3314630 Id fight Gandhi
Id fight Gandhi's picture

The MAJOR difference between this bubble and others is this is completely unnatural. There's no natural demand or boom in a business cycle.

Pure unadulterated manipulation of the markets with monetary policy. And that's all it is.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:20 | 3314681 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Indeed....but I take issue with Mr. Corrigan's characterization.

First, he describes Bernake's approach as "crazed."  I think it is far more accurate to describe his actions as criminal.  Let me ask you, and after putting $200 million per day into foreign owned banks, what will happen if a major Austrian bank collapses on Monday, and the Euro begins its final swan song?  What becomes of this money that has been pumped into the European system?  You know, all of those "swaps."

Second, while it isn't inaccurate to refer to the deteriorating effects of this policy on our "society," I think it is more pertinent to draw attention to the destructive effects this policy is having on our Republic.  A crucial part of our Republic is a free market.  Had Bernanke not intervened and begun buying 80% of Treasury issued debt, the market would have already performed its function to curtail what Mr. Corrigan describes as Bernanke's "crazed" actions.  Instead, we have these banking elements thwarting the market, and thus the weakening the Republic.  Did anyone else notice Mr. Bernanke, during his Humphrey Hawkins testimony, decrying Federal spending cuts?  This is in direct contrast to the people...who want cuts, lots of them, and now.

You see...we were never meant for Oz.  Natural checks and balances were built into our system to prevent just such a thing as is going on [as Rand Paul demonstrated very recently to our Executive branch].  Of course, a Central Bank was never in our Constitutional charter, which explains a lot about our current situation, with one man thinking that he can bail out every failed entity on the surface of the Earth...USING MY CURRENCY!  

Other than that, right on, Mr. Corrigan.   

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:58 | 3314727 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

Cdad, What do you mean ..................''Using My Currency''??????

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:15 | 3314746 Cdad
Cdad's picture

I'm speaking about the $85 billion USDs per month that the Federal Reserve is currently printing and pumping into foreign banks [that have US branches].  These USDs will ultimately dilute the purchasing power of the currency in my wallet.

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:58 | 3314818 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Your obvious problem is that your not getting free money to make MORE money faster that the eventual inflation.

You need better friends.

Sorry. That's the way it goes.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:11 | 3314849 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

great post dad.

 

+55 kajillion.

 

Criminal is too mild a word.

 

He is the Napoleon of financial crime, equal to Prof. Moriarty.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 17:36 | 3315642 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

I thought the $85 bills was for the stock game here in the US and that there was $287 billion + the $100 billion this week heading overseas no?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 19:44 | 3315871 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

Agreed with you up to "USING MY CURRENCY!" You have Federal Reserve Notes, not Cdad Notes.

+1 to dick cheneys ghost, above

As LoP vigorously states: possession is the law.

The FED possesses all FRNs. What they don't possess is your gold and silver.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:47 | 3314928 Dead Canary
Dead Canary's picture

The MAJOR difference between this bubble and others is this is completely unnatural.

Man that is SO true. I'm trying to figure out how bad the crash is gonna be. But this one is truly different. Assume crash positions. It's gonna get ugly.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 09:51 | 3314645 davhay
davhay's picture

Nobody knows the trouble I've seen. Nobody knows my story.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:54 | 3315048 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

... and a man hear's what he wants to hear

and disregards the rest

la la la la la la la la

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:04 | 3314661 WindwoodTrader
WindwoodTrader's picture

When the Bernanke Bucks slow or stop backstopping the stock market the true economy will be revealed. The Fed thought that by saving a big drop in equity prices the country's economy would be jump started and everyone would jump on board- Hurrah!. We have SOME improvements that don't mean much, like an increase in job creation. Yea! the percentage increase doesn't even match the growth in new workers on the market. The labor participation rate is still in decline.

The seniors and others on fixed incomes will get the full blast of this pathetic exercise when the USD is finally devalued and inflation clobbers the people. That's the only way illogical wars and pork barrel congressional activity gets paid for. The countries like China holding gobs of US debt won't be happy for sure. Just as when Nixon devalued the Greenback in '73 and the Saudis kicked up the price of our oil tenfold to make up for it.

Economic Armageddon coming? Maybe.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:38 | 3314704 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

China's gobs of US debt ($1.6 trillion) is strictly a function of the trade deficit between the two countries. China needs to invest its trade surplus money and it chooses to purchase US treasuries. That's why we could have a federal debt of $0 yet still have China buying up t-bills.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:12 | 3314852 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

If there were no debt there would be no T-bills for them to buy.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:58 | 3315239 Accounting101
Accounting101's picture

There will never be a scenario in the universe where your proposition will ever exist. Sovereigns sell bonds every day and will always continue to do so. Your theory would need to extend to your employer. If he didn't pay you, his profits would increase because paying you is a form of debt. It's silly and is not economic reality.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 15:03 | 3315253 akak
akak's picture

 

China needs to invest its trade surplus money and it chooses to purchase US treasuries. That's why we could have a federal debt of $0 yet still have China buying up t-bills.

Funny, then, that China has actually been DECREASING their T-bill holdings for the last three years now.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:57 | 3314723 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

Benny is like Casey Jones at the helm of a 100 car train, high on cocaine running her fast as she can and he's hoping to pull us all out of this depression. The problem is 99 of the hundred cars have detached from the engine and while his little engine that could is building steam and making good time the other 99 cars are crawling to a stop via the triple forces of inflation, negative income growth and increased taxes.  It's not going to work no matter how much coal (money) he shovels into the stoker.. it's over.  We are stranded in the middle of the desert and Casey Jones is saying "byeee yall! kiss my ass bitchezz! My .01% up here in the engine have never made better time.. we should have cut yall bitchezz loose long time ago"

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:07 | 3314666 Zen Bernanke
Zen Bernanke's picture

RIP Capital Markets!

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:08 | 3314667 I am a Man I am...
I am a Man I am Forty's picture

it's really just a guessing game of when the fed is going to cut back on the $85B, until that happens the market is moving north, the one trick pony that is the fed has been very predictable thus far and those paying attention have made a bunch of money going long the printing presses (e.g. stock market), if you want to buy something with some upside MPO is on sale, it will double within 2 years

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:13 | 3314678 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

How many people around you understand that the fed is pumping 85 billion into the banks who are not lending it and instead driving the market higher and higher, all the while knowing there is nobody to sell to? Of the ones who do understand, how many really care? The answer is he will never stop. Ever. There is no inflation and so there are no consequences. We should all just be thankful he is doing it. Or so we are told.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:50 | 3314717 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The thing is... If 2008 is any indiction... PAPER Ag & AU prices plummeted in beta & in advance of the collapse in the DOW & S&P... [but then recovered 5 months prior to the S&P bottom]...

~~~

If the same were to re-occur, there are MANY more people, this time, who would absolutely inundate the physical PM market... Theoretically ~ there is MUCH MORE risk to Bernanke of having physical PM supplies carted away... Thus, conceptually it places a PUT [on stocks] no matter how ridiculous...

I'm not sure this theory holds water, but it makes sense...

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:16 | 3314748 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I am a bit jammed up Francis but can you expand on that? When you say there is a risk to having physical PM supplies carted away, do you mean more countries pulling a Germany? If so, how does that place a put on stocks?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:13 | 3314854 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I'm going to be working outside all day so I don't have much time...

~~~

I'm just saying that, in the event that the 2008 pattern is repeated... Commodities sold off harder & bottomed way before the S&P did... Remember we're talking PAPER prices here ~ but the result is the same... People could buy Ag, for example, down at $8 plus premium for a brief window there... NOBODY knew what the fuck was going on back then [or only a very few did]... So my guess is that only a very few took advantage of the opportunity to get physical Ag & Au at those prices which were exacerbated by the rush to cash...

5 years later we have a different dynamic... There are a helluva lot more who absolutely see the writing on the wall [including countries wanting their gold back & massive buying from the East]...

So my guess is that trashing the stock market [at this point] would not have the same effect of crushing PM prices the way it did in 2008 [obviously because there would be quite a few more who would line up to take advantage of the situation]... The LAST THING central banks want to do at the moment is have people lining up to buy massive amounts of physical... The markets are simply too small...

IMO ~ this creates the possibility that the only game in town is to keep either pumping the stock market, or let it sort of plateau out for awhile [the 'Charlie Brown T-shirt' pattern]... That's the 'psychology' anyway...

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:43 | 3314917 edb5s
edb5s's picture

LOL, "the 'Charlie Brown T-shirt' pattern."  Good insight Francis, thanks.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:46 | 3314925 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Thanks for the insight. will catch up more about it later,

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:45 | 3315185 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

If we catch up with it on another thread, that's fine... It's just a theory [based on psychology]... I predicate this one on the idea that 'central planning' types [like Bernanke], are inevitably handcuffed by something very simple... That is ~ THEY MUST USE HISTORICAL PRECEDENT TO FORECAST FUTURE EVENTS...

~~~

For every:

- chart technician

- OMB planner

- historian

- eCONomist

This becomes a fatal flaw [over time]... Why? Because the only REAL thing they are adept at is having more access to data [or having studied data to a greater degree than the next guy]... That's the only 'wizardry' they possess... But HUMAN NATURE is dynamic... Oddly enough ~ it IS, QUITE ACTUALLY, DIFFERENT THIS TIME... So ~ since most of these 'central planners' fail to account for the HUMAN element, their master plan backfires...

Putting this into perspective with the current situation... It would appear to me that the 'CENTRAL PLANNING' dynamic will be DIFFERENT because of the following dynamic change...

- In 2008... ALL asset classes crashed together [even if the 'timing' on each was offset]... Largely, this was possible because everyone still believed that it was OK to hold assets in PAPER...

- In 2013... It will not be possible to crash all asset prices together [because, since 2008, there has been an awakened understanding that PAPER is the problem]...

~~~

I'll give you a simple example [not the whole case, but a minor observation]... TODAY ~ you ge someone like Soros who has been dumping his GLD for at least the past 6 months... Why?... He knows he needs physical... Oddly ~ for a WHALE holder of paper gold, this works out just swell [because as long as people actually THINK that the paper price of gold is the benchmark for the market, it is a way for him to do this at a good price... Someone like Soros doesn't want to be CHASING physical spot gold prices in a REAL market...

ekm's observations, I believe, are somewhat correct as well [with respect to crude]... But not everybody can warehouse WTI...

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 21:45 | 3316088 FreeMktFisherMN
FreeMktFisherMN's picture

More and more people are aware about what gold and silver have done in the past decade, and wouldn't miss that opportunity to stack on the cheap, especially those who missed it the first time. Most people who know the PM story are not weak hands who will be liquidating. They will rather be buying phyzz hand over fist, and the decoupling between CME/COMEX and the real thing will accelerate. The mining companies will keep taking it on the chin, too, and either shut down meaning of course less supply of PMs, or will not sell their output for fiat and instead hold onto it. As mentioned above, of course the Eastern nations love the cheap PM prices, too, and that will only increase, even more so if the prices keep getting slammed. They have plenty of fiat to unload. 

Sun, 03/10/2013 - 02:24 | 3316421 Doña K
Doña K's picture

I can call your <<<<dynamic human nature>>> as the battle of the herd mentality. Bernanke on one side trying to herd the masses into stocks and on the other side, ZH and other influential blogs are creating an informed counter to physical and real assets.

That battle however is proving to be very difficult for Bernanke. Srtictly by observation I see friends who were clueless a few years ago coming arround and they also indoctrinate others.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:21 | 3314758 RunningMan
RunningMan's picture

Even people within financial services are oblivious to this. Of those who are broadly aware, there appears to be a large segment with a desire to not think about it too deeply, lest it trouble their sleep.  Everyone else reads ZH.

I believe this can continue for a few more years, absent any trigger events. The Fed is "all in" and unless there is someone with the ability to call their bluff, they have the strong position.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:46 | 3314923 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Supposedly, Russia and China are busy paying out the rope...

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:09 | 3314966 AUELOX
AUELOX's picture

Yep, and I am and have been the dumbest moron in the family for years.  I quit trying to get ANYONE to wakeup as they quit listening! 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:32 | 3314778 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

The fact that we do not have hyperinflation in spite of 14 trillion dollars floating around at zirp is a testament to JUST HOW FUCKING BAD THIS ECONOMY REALLY IS!

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:55 | 3315232 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Now I'm really confused- do you see inflation or deflation on the horizon???

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 18:25 | 3315730 Max Hunter
Max Hunter's picture

Yes

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 20:17 | 3315927 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

Inflation of prices, deflation of currency in circulation.

Sun, 03/10/2013 - 02:32 | 3316426 Doña K
Doña K's picture

There can never be deflation with fiat money.

There can never be deflation with the FED at the helm.

Deflation is the anathema of all wellfare governments.

Gold for inflation cash for deflation. Place your bets. According to the vegas odds: Bet on an eventual inflation. The reason that you don't see inflation is that when you see it it's too late.

Sun, 03/10/2013 - 13:28 | 3317150 1C3-N1N3
1C3-N1N3's picture

I said "currency in circulation."

I expect there to be more currency in existence, but very little of it will be circulating.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:08 | 3314669 world_debt_slave
world_debt_slave's picture

Working as a part time cashier at a grocery store I marvel at the ignorance of the masses that go through my lane.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:22 | 3314686 DOT
DOT's picture

off topic:

Thanks for that '62 quarter I got fom the change giver thingy last week!

 

on topic:

It is truly wonderous how stupid is rewarded.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:25 | 3314692 Rainman
Rainman's picture

You mean the masses of  ' consumers ' ignorant enough to pay $4.29 for a 10 1/2 oz. mini-bag of Lays potato chips ?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:13 | 3315094 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

Whereas the genius in the crowd only pays $6.99 for a 1.5 quart cylinder of ice cream! I love that the cows and sugar cane harvesters have all gotten huge COLA increases....

A real world check show bales of hay that were $2-$3 are now $9-$10, a fact also impacting the meat business in Europe and a butcher counter soon, near your home on the range.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 15:38 | 3315371 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Who knew horses ate that much hay?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 15:37 | 3315369 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

You said "pay for"...what does this mean?!

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:14 | 3314675 razorthin
razorthin's picture

The best bet is always on the other side of an extreme trend, isn't it.  Smart, contrarian money is accumulating cash right now.  When the zirp rubber band breaks, interest rates will soar in bernankeasshole's face and you will hardly have time to act.  Look at the clue UUP and treasuries are giving you.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:27 | 3314694 DOT
DOT's picture

How does one un-wind a big cash position going int a (hyper) inflationary environment. Seems to me that the holding of "real" assets would be more desirable.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 10:53 | 3314706 razorthin
razorthin's picture

If you believe hyperinflation is imminent, perhaps, but I don't.  RE prices are inflated.  The best position you could put yourself in is to be able to snap it up at bargain prices with your hoard of cash while your little friends are running as fast as they can from 10%+ mortgages.  You won't need a mortgage.  If you lived through the late 70's and very early 1980's, you know what I am talking about.  Eventually, asshole or his successor will have no choice but to pull a Volker.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:20 | 3314755 spinone
spinone's picture

you might die waiting

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:52 | 3314809 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

" Eventually, asshole or his successor will have no choice but to pull a Volker."

Bullshit, I lived through that and it is impossible to do now.  Raising rates will throw the U.S. into a hard default immediately (as opposed to the soft default through stealth inflation - commodies and anything of real fucking value).  Moreover, the whole "flation" debate is stupid.  Tell me, what would the "price" be for something that you need to survive, but that is unavailable or that I refuse to sell?  Again, arguing of deflation or inflation is moronic and plays into the hands of the enemy.  Use common fucking sense when assessing value, period.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:25 | 3314995 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

  By the time the Volker was pulled out of the holster the funnybuck had already lost 50% of it's value. Those still holding that crap could only buy half as many bonds yielding, what, around 18%? Helluva gap there, at least for anyone who doesn't like leaving money lying around on tables.

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 16:54 | 3315541 geewhiz
geewhiz's picture

Hyperinflation is not assured. Nobody in pvt sector is borrowing so they only printing to finance govt largesse and bankster speculation, no fractional reserve expansion to make mainsteam prices go really wild. They won't let hyper destroy thier dollar ponzi franchise unless they can replace it with an IMF SDR franchise, or worse, see bitcoin or PM run an underground and some of the official economy to mess up thier world. They will be careful. They will pull a Volker and govt will collapse and take thier regulatory foot off the pvt sector neck. The dollar will strenghen, assets will fall as the economy crashes at first, then recovers later on. They will liquidate thier paper gold positions at a discount and keep the bullion they bought with muppet money. They'll also buy up assets at low prices and make out good when the economy recovers.
Thats my theory but I'm not sticking to it cause I'm just a dumb goy and what do I know.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:06 | 3314734 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

I think Benny knows the rubber band is going to break whether it be Italy saying fuck you or someone assassinates one of the banksta niggaz running Spain or France or what ever the triggering event is he knows it's just a matter of time before the reset hits so why not buy time and just print until the reset occurs that instantly bails him out of blame ?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:03 | 3314732 gould's fisker
gould&#039;s fisker's picture

In the word's of Jim Morison, "When the Music's Over," head for the hills.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:09 | 3314741 razorthin
razorthin's picture

I will have already made my place there, fighting off the rift raft.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 21:29 | 3316056 Placerville
Placerville's picture

Riff - Raff

Sun, 03/10/2013 - 12:36 | 3317046 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Riffraff is a derivation of the original rift raft.  Look it up.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:13 | 3315095 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

I junked ya for quoting a psyop change agent.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:21 | 3315120 gould's fisker
gould&#039;s fisker's picture

Whatever that is--and i'm pretty certain i don't want to know--it's a free world, or er, a free country, mmmmm, well Tyler runs a pretty tolerant website and i'll leave it at that.  Arrows up, arrows down, as civilization melts down i good with it all except the melting part.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:24 | 3314764 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Every bubble is just another wealth transfer to the elite. Despite the fact that the ICI mutual fund data shows that Joe Lunchbucket has moved his 401(K) fantasy funds into the "safe" allocations provided to him, does anybody really believe that his money was removed from the equity markets? The 401(K) has created institutional bagholders who will be buying all the way down the bubble's collapse, much like 2008.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:48 | 3314805 Rainman
Rainman's picture

Fact #1 : $120k is the median balance for 401(K) and IRA savings for households approaching retirement.

Fact #2: 26% of workers dipped into retirement funds to pay mortgages, credit card debt and other bills in 2012.

( source: AARP )

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 15:39 | 3315375 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Are you trying to imply my MMF isn't money good? ;)

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:37 | 3314784 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Who doesn't want 50% more cash??

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:46 | 3314801 Mike Cowan
Mike Cowan's picture

I love the e-trade baby almost as much as the silver bears. "GLD doesn't have any gold in it." Priceless. 

Ben! Print some more money. 

The end never justifies the means. 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 11:47 | 3314802 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Just what is the true value of an "equity".  This is all a distraction folks.  Look at the messages coming out of South America.  Arginatina is now saying "fuck you" to the western world and calling the export of oil under and around the Falkland Islands the "theft of natural resources" that belong to them.  Currency wars, trades wars, real wars.  Some things never change.  Everyone now will demand something fucking real (i.e. gold or a useful commodity) in exchange for anything of real value that leaves their country.  I expect the U.S. to attempt more "liberations" soon.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:08 | 3314839 Its_the_economy...
Its_the_economy_stupid's picture

I am becoming more and more a buyer of defaltionist theories. I look at Japan over the last 2 decades and I see the merit of the Bi-Flationist theories.

"Everything you own will be worth less and less (with some notable exceptions), and everything you need to survive will cost more and more."

PS: Don't try selling this view to your neighbor. Their face will go blank.

Sun, 03/10/2013 - 02:47 | 3316439 Doña K
Doña K's picture

That happens during depressions where people are trying to survive and sell everything they do not need for things they need. Food energy and shelter. 

Those who have assets to spare, will be aquiring assets like Jewlery, boats. luxury cars, real estate etc on the cheap.  

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 12:09 | 3314843 The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

That baby is really creepy.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 15:40 | 3315379 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

I feel sorry for the kid...he's got decades of people recognizing him and going into a blind rage ahead of him.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:21 | 3314989 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

So is now a good time to sign up for E-Trade?

Does holding paper count?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 15:42 | 3315383 GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Two-ply!

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 13:25 | 3314993 Bungalow
Bungalow's picture

Apparently, no end to this madness.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:02 | 3315063 MrSteve
MrSteve's picture

The FED is selling the Sunny Skies fairy tale,

"he knows how to ease down slow and everything's fine in the end".

It ties in with the FED's current legend, a sequel to the Goldilocks Stock Market story, the last cycle's tale. Sometimes a song just says it all:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6u-NKEasiQ

FED dizinformatsia and agitprop are increasingly being called out in other media outlets, etc which shows the golden-payoff end game is coming up on our fight card.

 

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:24 | 3315133 resurger
resurger's picture

what can possible go wrong?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:25 | 3315134 resurger
resurger's picture

what can possible go wrong?

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:39 | 3315189 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

So, all I have to say is: Bye! Bye! Bye!

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 14:40 | 3315190 Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

So, all I have to say is: Bye! Bye! Bye!

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 17:21 | 3315608 Freewheelin Franklin
Freewheelin Franklin's picture

from this particular Joyceian stream-of-Austrian-consciouness

 

You win all the internets.

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 19:43 | 3315865 razorthin
razorthin's picture

..

Sat, 03/09/2013 - 23:41 | 3316287 robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

I'm long Lindsey Lohan,

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