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China: Beyond The Miracle
by Larry Kantor, Head of Research, Barclays,
China has become a key locomotive for global growth, in many ways taking over the role traditionally played by the United States in business cycles. It is now the world’s second largest economy, and has grown much faster than any other major economy over the past couple of decades. China’s role as a key driver of global growth brings with it increased scrutiny by investors and economists: a significant slowdown in China – never mind a collapse - would have significant implications for economies and financial markets around the world. This was most recently seen in 2012, when slower economic growth – fostered in large part by policy tightening to alleviate inflation pressures and structural imbalances – generated fears of a “hard landing” that served as a headwind to financial market performance for much of last year.
The extremely rapid growth in China – as welcome as it has been during an otherwise disappointing recovery from the Great Recession – represents the first stage of development in the evolution of the economy from closed to open, from fully controlled to market, and from agrarian to industrial. This initial stage is already giving way to a new phase of slower, more sustainable growth, with different drivers. It is critical for the global economy and financial markets that China’s transition is managed in a way that allows the necessary adjustments to happen gradually and without de-stabilizing effects.
The Beyond the Miracle series - written by Barclays Yiping Huang, Jian Chang and Steven Lingxiu Yang and launched in September 2011 - carefully analyzes the transition that China is undergoing from various perspectives, and also discusses the economic and financial market implications. It argues that China will successfully make the transition from ‘economic miracle’ to normal development in the next decade (Chapter 1). But there is an important caveat: China must embark on a multi-pronged set of reforms if the country is to move to a slower, more sustainable growth rate that deemphasizes trade, construction and investment and instead places a greater weight on consumer spending as a source of growth.
Each chapter provides an in-depth analysis of the task at hand – from financial reform (Chapter 2), to housing reform (Chapter 3), to the pivotal role of consumption in rebalancing China’s economy (Chapter 4). For China to avoid becoming a source of inflation in the future, its monetary policy-making, too, will need to be reformed (Chapter 5). China’s ageing population will also mean an end to its surplus of cheap labor, heralding a new era of rapidly rising wages (Chapter 6). In turn, this could put additional pressure on the country’s fiscal outlook, as it seeks to meet growing pension liabilities (Chapter 8).
These challenges notwithstanding, the Beyond the Miracle series is optimistic on the outlook for China. It argues that the Chinese economy is in the middle of a major and broad-based structural transformation that will lead the country to a more sustainable growth potential of 6-8%, from a double-digit pace previously. As China continues to grow and upgrade, its outward direct investment should rise quickly (Chapter 7). And by narrowing the technological gap with the advanced economies, China should be able to avoid the “middle income trap” and graduate to the global high-income group within the next decade (Chapter 9).
China’s Beyond the Miracle series is ambitious, both in scope and depth. Given the critical role now played by China in the world economy and financial markets, I highly recommend it as essential reading for investors, as well as anyone interested in current and future economic and market trends.
Everything you wanted (and need) to know about China but were afraid to ask...
The full 316-page epic series below...
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They are running a $333 billion annual trade surplus with the USA. The miracle is that we let them.
China is being used by western based corporations to evade high labour and environmental costs, and in general avoid government oversight and regulations. They are provided with access to capital and expertise to build the factories....and unfettered access to western markets.
Don't blame China...it is the global corporations and the shady men that run them who are your enemy. My guess is that these same guys are just about ready to smack China hard - can't have them getting too cocky.
Through neo-mercantalist policies, China has effectively stolen the means of production from the Western Capitalists. What need now for decadent Western consumers? War:
http://www.secondkoreanwar.com
Open door.. no regulation to speak of, modest bribes willingly accepted to get just about anything you want.. unlimited dirt cheap labor with no benefits costs.. That’s not a miracle, it is pragmatism over ethics business nirvana.
Two quick thoughts:
1) Peru is now slowing too, it grew about the same as China in recent years.
2) My guess is that China (and Russia too) are screwed longer-term, bad emographics, pollution, even worse corruption than the USA, etc.
***
Not a single thing here at ZH I have read over the past 10 days or so is going to keep away from my BIG purchase of gold when I get back!
If we see this, TPTB sees it more. Question is what are they about to do?
The developers of the Chinese ghost cities finally realize it really is all about location.
Maybe they'll stop building empty houses and switch to making ammunition....I could use some .223 and .22 long rifle. I've got some money they borrowed us to pay for it.
What do you me "we", white man? Says the money master.
Japanese Machine Orders (Jan) M/M -13.1% vs. Exp. -1.7% (Prev. 2.8%)http://ransquawk.com/headlines/japanese-machine-orders-jan-m-m-13-1-vs-e...
Japan = Screwed
(Hope they like their new islands)
Until they re-align with China.
I know, I know, Nanking and past animosty. But consider: after the century-and-a-half humiliation of France by England (with the glorious anomaly of de Grasse's victory making the Battle of Yorktown possible), and less than two generations after Waterloo, for God's sake, the British and French were allied with the TURKS (!) in the Crimean War--not just trading partners, but military allies (It was a French general, observing aghast the "Charge of the Light Brigade", who said, "C'est magnifique, mais ne c'est pas la guerre")
Power politics and strategic reconsiderations of long-term interests do occur.
The Chinese are busy narrowing the technological gap alright. By hacking the West's computer systems.
And who would invest there knowing of the systemic fraud?
Never mind that. By moving a manufacturing plant there we give away decades worth of processes WE developed.
"gave." not so much anymore. But yeah.
Thank goodness we have the unions. Don't have a job anymore...but I still have my union card.
There is no way in hell a billion people are going to waltz merrily into blissful consumer land using their mastercards to fill their trophy homes with ever larger piles of stuff ripped from the earth and transformed in factories. No way, no how. Peak everything...peak planet, peak delusion, peak debt, peak energy, peak food, peak water etc. 6 earths would be required and last I looked we had but one.
We ought to keep in mind that this is all about trade in the end. China has been trading for millennia. We may be somewhat naive to think that they wouldn't have some advantage, and we would be outright stupid to think they don't have a plan.
china has a long history of shooting themselves in the foot when they seem to be on the cusp of being a world superpower.
Yes, that's indeed a valid point.
err, I suppose you could say so...but kinda like holding a gun to a Chinaman's head, to force(encourage) him to become a consumer of Western trade goods(opium addict)in the good ol days,(http://www.bearcanada.com/china/jewishmonopoly.html)* your thesis seems based on the ability to force a gun into the hands of the Han, and induce them to shoot downwards...
two bullet suicides...an 'Amerikan' invention brought to you by the boyz of Operation Sunrise...Heinrich Muller, the Dulles Bros., James Jesus and of course, their dogsbody Otto!...
Otto-logic...economic efficiency grows out of the barrel of my gun!
*see picture of chinese being encouraged therein!
Excellent point. And who managed the Opium trade? The Sassoons--Persian Jews who intermarried with the Rothschilds, and convinced the British government that the only way to stanch the flow of silver from England to China (the Chinese wanted real silver for their silk and tea) was to force open a market. Opium was the most valuable commodity traded in the 19th century, and the Chinese gevernment (libertarians take heed) did not want any, thanks. But the superiority of British weaponry forced the "market" open, and the rest, as they say, is history.
The Roosevelts made their fortune in the opium trade, as did many other pillars of Anglo-American society beloved of the Austrians.
Edit: thanks for your excellent link, as well. I had written my response above before reading your link, which summarizes the same information.
Flow wit it Brother...you got the floor, take it away...
or,
as they said to Roland Kirk at Newport Jazz, (when the audience went wild for his first set, and the next act out could not play because of the noise) ...."C'mon out, do an encore! Yeah, you can take it out of my time!, take it outta my time!"*....we all luv Bagdhad Sassoons!
ps. still trying to wrap my head around the 'white man' comment above...did it get misaligned in the thread?
(n.b. - Kirk was an extraordinarily gifted Black musician who creatively intersected with 'our' white culture ....Volunteered Slavery" was the name of one of his 60's albums. ...contrast his role and meme with that of the current squatter in the White House, who actually believes that his life mission is to bring "Volunteered Slavery" into 'our' lives as a constant reminder that his hebraic masters have achieved their destiny of hegemony 'uber alles' !!!)
"as did many other pillars of Anglo-American society beloved of the Austrians"
I'm willing to admit that "Austrian School" clubs in the US and Canada have a certain expectable bias towards certain "pillars of Anglo-American society"
nevertheless they don't have a stranglehold on the "School" as such - only one in the English-speaking press & internet world
as the very "Austrian School" budget deficit reduction drive of european sovereigns can attest
What the hey Ghordius??? Are you filling in for an emotionally and pyschically depleted FP after a weekend of his fruitless tilting at the windmills of the Statist mind?
"very "Austrian School" budget deficit reduction drive of european sovereigns can attest"...is not a good example of your usual acuity of judgement...
as, though I am on record as offering little luv for the Austrian faction, it's hardly their impetus which be behind the drive to 'eat Europe alive' on behalf of the bankstergangster kosher kriminal klique!
You and I both know better...the Hayekians are mere dupes in the game, which always remains the same...dialectically-driven controlled oppositions 'run wild' in a way that Falak Bey is unable to process or admit too...just like Sultan Tipoo, the bad guys bury their opposition in airless dungeons of debt and throw away the keynesian key!
Koch Bros franchise the Merikan Division of the 'loony libertarians' indeed, but in Europe it is and always has been the Synarchist "Martinists" of the Bnai-Brith controlled masonic madness that hold the puppet strings and wage their war against the Europoid peoples.
I'm willing to let you retreat under flag of truce, but you must promise to never sail under the flag of that pirate Pema again!
joyful, joyful, what are you accusing me of? of having an independent, open mind? if yes, than I'm guilty as charged
I'm not talking about the US and Canadian/Commonwealth "clubs" that follow Mises - in fact a lot of them are willing to let the megacorporations run wild
but I do share many continental european values with "Beylerbey Falak Pema", and still see your view as somewhat poisoned by old propaganda
Falak and I share the view that The People is The Sovereign of The State, for example. blame the French and 1848 Revolutions
we also share a view of "The State" that goes back to it's Greco-Roman roots, with the flavour of city-state experiences in the Renaissance
we bitterly argue on many other fields, though
I do agree with the Austrian School on many things, particularly on what exactly happens when credit is increased - and so I am strongly in favour of limiting state budgets - and disagree with your "eating Europe alive"
from a continental european perspective, Mises is not a radical, he is more or less "the old school", btw, a voice of (liberal) reason
bitterly? lol, it tastes of citron pressé!
cool drink in summer by the pool!
bitter enough when it comes to the EUR, for example. nevertheless, I admit the hyperbolic use of the term
btw: the next big thing is the Transatlantic Trade Pact. I'm even contemplating to become a ZH contributor to cover it a bit, then some parts that Britain is pushing for are seriously galling, for me
your skills in the field of finance much surpass mine. I would love to read your perception of things to come.
Yes, I never really understood the one legged Euro !
And this current north south split is very disconcerting, and shows up the EU as supporters of the Banksta conspiracy on this side of the pond; which they should have collectively squashed as of 2009! The banks have them by the short hairs!
Accusation has not entered into the discussion...it is but semaphore of friendly hailing that I sent your ship.
The telling fact that Prof Feteke has had to start his own "Hungarian" Austrian School should have alerted you to the shoals of scholastic schizophrenia that beset the Austrians in their factional folly...just like the Marxist derivative of the dialectical 'divide n rule' of the dupes recipe, they are splintered, and stained with the telling signs of being but a front behind which the real powers may conduct their affairs of affront to our survival.
Though the warnings of your perilous position may go unheeded, it can never be said that full and friendly notice was not given that, when the battle be joined, one can no longer claim neutrality whilst flying the flag of perfidious piracy...the Jolly Roger of your continental chum;s choice of folly is about to be 'shanghaied' and broadsided by the blazing guns of ol One-Eye's grandest gambit!
En garde mon frere!
+1 Fekete is really a good example of their factionalism and "scholastic schizophrenia" is imo very apt
OT: my candidate for the papacy is Peter the Hungarian, btw - fitting that a scion of Attila mounts the throne of the Roman Pontifex Maximus, and so marking the romanization of Hungary ;-)
the key issue of who commands imperial ambition and who follows is defined right here : Armed with this knowledge, he sailed back to England to make a new proposition to the Queen. And, on the advice of David Sassoon, Queen Victoria decided to export opium from the Indian Subcontinent to China where her military would enforce its importation and use....
As in the case of Crusader Kings and Charles V's universal empire there is a GRAND IMPERIAL PLAN. A great game of civilization and colonial conquest. That is what launches the thousand ships : the face of imperial, belligerant, hubristic design!
Homer said it so well and its been repeat performance since.
It was the grand plan of Rule Britannia not of the Sassoons; they like the Rothschilds were AGENTS of imperial ambition; like the Templars, like the Venetian and Genoese merchants who developed the wool n silk/spice markets of Constantinople, Holy Land and Bruges...for the Frankish kings of France and England (and the Papal See, joint rulers of Occident).
That these agents of commerce and capitalism became immensely rich is normal; they were agents of continental changes of huge economic magnitude. But the political and POWER game belonged to the royals who commandeered them, the Templars, the Conquistadors, the Spinolas and Perruzis, the Fuggers, the Rothschilds, the Sassoons and now the Jamie Dimons and Lloyd Blankfeins.
Then as today, the decadence comes not from the clever minions of power but those who wield Poseidon's three-pronged spear dressed in Caeserian purple; the face of greed and corruption dressed up as "civilization". The fish rots from head down!
Italy paid a heavy price price for its imperial hubris in Roman days : 500 years of world dominance, 1500 years of strife and purgatory; never to find political preminence again to this day!
For Greece, cradle of civilization, it was even worse; Nemesis's curse on house of Atreus!
Will history repeat once again...in Anglo dominant NWO grand design unfurled in surrogate lands of globalised world under the petrodollar economic gun?
(and... lets forget those useful scapegoats! People we burn when things don't churn! And label them as the true evil themselves; how convenient; to save the noble breed of 'auld lang syne', the 200 families of republican Rome, alike Sparta of old under Menelaus and successors etc. etc. etc.)
Although I once attributed your obstinate obfuscation of the obvious overall command of the campaign to destroy our western civilization and the peoples of the West to mere naiveity and a scholastic vanity, it becomes crystal clear at last that you be a mere hireling of the hebraic hegemonists, tasked, here, to at all costs prevent the presentation of the perfect proofs of perfidy on their part.
I shall therefore take this opportunity to formally forward to the fraternity the final nail in the coffin of thy confidence trick...
http://www.scribd.com/doc/123652605/Genome-Evolution-of-Jewish-Populatio...
In which a nice Jewish boy blows the cover on the campaign to keep the Khazarian ancestry thing 'below the radar.'
It's over bud...you're a beached whale...and no amount of wailing or gnashing of fangs will save thee from thy fate!
joyful, which western civilization? the Anglo-American or ours? let's take for example the Jews. we had quite a lot of Jew-unfriendly history, and I'm not talking only of the period between the two world wars
and yet they had a consequence: our bankers are generally not Jews, and "Jewish Influence" comes from Anglo-American "quarters", here
I also think that while our Anglo-American cousins have pioneered the extremes of liberalism (which for us contains libertarians, too), we have still strong(er) roots in our "national conservativism" (France less, btw) and in our "egalitarianism" (France more, btw)
Liberty (liberal values), Fraternity (national conservative values) and Equality (in front of the law, as citizens, as humans with the same dignity - those values are even Christian, here)
If I somehow understated the exact prescription of how the pyramid of power is constructed on your side of the pond, I apologize forthwith. It went something to the effect of Synarchic Martinists and their Bnai Brith controlled masonic dupes. That seemed clear enough at the time of writing...but perhaps there is some way I can embellish for you...I'll have to think on it. But you can take it as a given that there is no divergence in the power structure on either side of the ocean...nor the Channel. Same Kameleons, different kolours to suit the landscape.
The fact that the "American Revolution" was Mason led and inspired is commonly known to many, but the same people profess ignorance or astonishment to hear that the first "american" lodges were jewish ... parallel 'confusion' exists on your side, but there is a much longer experience on the continentals' part in fashioning a garment of guile under which to hide all the truths inconvenient to their constant wailings about perfidious Albion...the magic carpet under which all the sweepings of the failed experiment in "unity" can be swept!
Liberty Fraternity and Equality were the trumpet sounds by which the hounds of hell were unleashed upon Europe, and never since have those beasts been fully leashed. Crypto-Xhristian perhaps...but you fellows simply haven't the patience for details...and therefore do not understand just who your 'bankers' and other pillars actually are. They say ignorance is bliss, but I'll give it a miss!
joyful, perhaps it's my fault and I simply can't connect to your concepts. my world is full of masons, Jesuits and other orders of priests, anarchists of various flavours, politicians, managers and lobbyists. You'd be appalled if I would start with my family history
if I understand you right you are talking of the marrani - the "Jews that did not convert properly" - fine, but how do you tell?
for "perfid Albion" I do have, for example, evidence: after so many years of insider trolling, the UK is now building on a Transatlantic Trade deal, a kind of super-weapon against all defenses that the EU was supposed to give against the mega-corporations like the peddlers of GMO foods
Albion is but a pale reflection of it's native state now; it's been gutted of the principles upon which a fine culture once stood...
perfidy is an import which has, like the continental squirrel, gradually replaced the native breeds and sent reddy seeking refuge into the highlands.
You can't tell the conversos from the rest...that was the design from the beginning, blend in and then slowly take over. It's quite alright to excoriate the Brits for treacherous trade deals, but it needs be understood that it a'int "the Brits' anymore what run things o'er there...and hasn't been for a long, long time.
lol, you are a troll. play on macduff!
If I were a jewish troll I would never say : Zionism is a Crusader state ideal resuscitated to protect the Kingdom of Oil heaven and justify misplaced ethnic superiority; which I do; as it is regression of western values.
I would never stand side by side with those who practice apartheid.
However, if western civilization is Rule Britannia play and Gunga Din in white man's burden alliteration, then I say : lay on Lady Macbeth's son!
The sons of Enlightenment respect time's arrow and never bend to Bourbon or Valois return. Or to corpo-state fascism.
It is a long standing truism of the 'intelligence world' that the very best of agents are those who do not even know they are agents.
And in the world of intelligence, it is the achilles heel of many a scholar to be unable to discern how the purest of intent oft leads to the greatest of evils. The sons of the Enlightenment are the devil's own spawn, favorites at that, for that demon be particularly fond of the clever sophistry which precedes all sacrifice of innocent blood.
So Bulldog Drummond of you old chap! clap clap!
Really? I don't seem to remember huge trade numbers during the Mao years, prior to the Opium War years ...?
You need to familiarize yourself with "otto-speak" -
"trade" means war continued by other means.
Both Mao and Otto were big fans of Clausewitz. Otto married the niece of Hjalmar Horace Greeley Schacht. Big Guns, lot's o action.
What the leaders in China fear the most is the masses of China rising up. Sure, they could kill a whole bunch of them but if hundreds of millions would rise then there is no stopping. China as a communist country made the mistake not to create a middle class sufficient enough to boost the national consumption and standards of living. That would undermine communism where everybody is equal: equal in poverty (except for the happy few). But you can keep masses under control for only so much, at one point there is a breakingpoint. It are the middle classes that lead a country forward.
So why does Barclay's write this high-powered s**t? Whom does Mr Kantor report to and what precisely are the objectives of his department?
They should be making loans to British businesses and paying good interest on customer savings accounts and CDs.
Silly--they want to be among those who "carefully manage" the "transitions" they speak of. The same everywhere. They have been doing a bang-up job "managing" the US, which may cease to be a white-majority country within fifty years. Look at London today. Or Detroit, for that matter.
People need to acquaint themselves with the work of Kevin MacDonald. He lays out the relevant facts without hyperbole or invective of any kind, but the facts themselves, taken as a whole, are horrific enough.
For an academic social science report it is useful. Add your other inputs, then analyse.