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Peter 'Dollar Demise' Schiff Versus John 'Dollar Reprise' Mauldin
Based on the coming 'oil revolution', John Mauldin makes the point that the US can run $300-400 billion deficits and the Fed "can print trillions" and the dollar will surge (since the rest of the world demands it). Peter Schiff begins quietly adding that "we don't have that much oil" then goes on to discuss the 'ifs' in Mauldin's thesis, beginning the wildcard that "we can't suppress interest rates indefinitely" as we await this supposed oil export boom to begin - and that somehow the US is expected to generate a budget surplus when even the perpetually optimistic CBO in its most recent forecast gave up on expecting a surplus in the future of America. Ever. The ensuing 3 minutes or so is worth the price of admission as Dollar bull meets Dollar bear in a nose-dripping, face-ripping trip into the future.
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Peter is right... perhaps a decade too early, though, and not before the Third World War.
KING DORRAR, ROR!
ZH would be a bargain at ten times the price:)
Shh!
Schiff looks moronic spouting about hyperinflation; there hasn't even been inflation. And Mauldin is correct - technological advances will procure more and more oil, and oil's price will fall as supply increases.
So you're dining at Orly's 99 cents/lb all-you-can-eat chicken buffet also?
I guess you believe that all the price increases that we have been seeing and paying, on almost every basic good, in the last five or ten years are purely due to "speculation" as well?
Oil's price is not sticky because of future developments in technology. When supply meets demand, or increases while demand stays steady, oil's price will fall - thus why it is transitory.
Food prices follow energy prices.
And speculators will run like chickens from a gun once the price begins to drop because speculators chase trends.
Please do let us know when the 80 year annual trend of steadily rising prices (which just coincidentally began with the demise of the gold standard) comes to an end. I'm sure that fiat currency depreciation has absolutely nothing to do with it, though, right?
Boy, those are some very patient 'speculators'!
The rise in prices coincided with a rise in living standards and wealth creation.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eyCpidT53nY&feature=player_embedded
Grillo wants searing austerity. He is Europe's version of the tea party and Italy is the next Britain.
Felix Zulauf is far from some Max Keiser type (regardless of what one thinks of Max Keiser; no comment on that subject from me), and if anyone knows anything about him, it strikes me as a rare moment that someone of his background puts out an unequivocable statement that we'll soon experience an epic crash, which he just did 30 days ago (as I just learned).
I also find it interesting that he essentially states that the G7 has to go along with allowing the Eurozone and Japan to debase their currencies by the largest % on a relative scale (even if the ECB currently isn't acting as if this is the true end goal, when they'll ultimately concede it), as a matter of necessity, in order to keep the EU intact (i.e. keeping Germany in it) and Japan alive (if barely).
I see dire predictions all the time; I rarely see such predictions by someone luke Zulauf.
Mauldin seems tired. The verbal pauses are hard to take. Regardless, the discussion seems to be hindered by divergent interests. Mauldin wants to support the current debt-based system; Schiff sees it as a problem to be fixed. One essential point that doesn't get addressed is the multipolar nature of world affairs. The market has players with different interests. Al Korelin is a fine moderator, but it would be interesting to see how the panel responds to the idea that there is such a thing as Peak Debt. I wonder if that is where Mauldin's analysis would break down. He doesn't see commerce without encumbrance.
Note Mauldin's reluctance to acknowledge that his children may have no future. He's in denial. Big movers around the world see collapse coming and are taking steps, while he wants to argue the logic: "If this...and this...then it will be okay." BUT THOSE 'IFS' ARE NOT HAPPENING! THE POLICY IS ONE OF CAN-KICKING. Schiff is not being cynical: he's being realistic. Decisionmakers are gutless, nearsighted, self-interests, corrupt pansies. People can side with Mauldin if it comforts them for a while, but facts only point to collapse.
More footage to add to the "Peter Schiff was right" videos. Damn near a full length movie now if you string them all together.
Grab some popcorn. How many versions can you find?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw
Think about a Ponzi scheme, it works while you take in more than you have to pay out. What Maulding is saying is that while we keep deficits under GDP growth, we will be OK because we are taking in more than we have to pay out. Eventhough it still is a Ponzi. Schiff was trying to point out that it is a Ponzi, something that Mauldin didn´t deny. So in essence they were both saying the same thing.
The key is the outcome of the game they are playing, and that is where I know that it will be bad. If interested read my other post here.
Until next time,
Engineer
Hi Spine001, I read your post. "Your thoughts are large." We likewise seem to be talking about the same thing (though your perspective is probably more studied than mine): Mauldin accepts a little ponzi, like being just a little pregnant. Schiff thinks we can make a system free of the artificial oligarchic boom/bust centrifuge. Big non-aligned players seem to be siding with Schiff. They see a better way, and we are starting to see it manifest in those unreported but massive international barter agreements.
"even if the ECB currently isn't acting as if this is the true end goal, when they'll ultimately concede it"
first, the eurozone isn't the EU and so it's scope isn't to "keep the EU intact" - it's just not being trashed by the USD like a pack of rats by a terrier
second, the eurozone 17 and in major part the eu 27 are more or less going on the "austerity" path, with a goal of getting to sustainable budgets and debt - which is exactly what Austrians and Peter Schiff advise and Krugman deems absurd
third, a currency war has always two legs. the FED has an immense advantage in the "go down" direction, the ECB has an immense advantage in the "let's brake" department
fourth, as you know I'm a big fan of yours, but I do have to admit that I hate when you write things like "the G7 has to go along" - who is the G7? it's not a separate entity and it's very, very sloppy thinking/writing imho
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gdp_versus_household_income.png
You were saying Mr. Krugman?
As if there is a causal relationship. Like a guy who beats his kids and sees that they grow up then concludes beating his kids helps them grow.
Money printing just like beating children is evil. It is theft and oppression. The progress that has been made in the last 100 years is despite the money printing not because of it. Stop lying.
....and both parents having to work to make ends meet.
Schiff looks moronic spouting about hyperinflation; there hasn't even been inflation. And Mauldin is correct - technological advances will procure more and more oil, and oil's price will fall as supply increases.....
What our Dr. Krugman is talking about is correct, that is always the behavior of the economic symstem. What is important is what he is not talking about, the long term effects of accelerating the rate of monetization on the correct functining of the markets. It is a lot more complex and you have to use chaos theory to model this, but put it simply, once you start monetizing, at the rate we are now, you can not stop, without crashing the system, imagine Ponzi stopping his money taking. But as soon as the markets realize that this is your problem, they second guess you and the rally to infinity starts, since they know you can not stop. At that point the power of the FOMC decision makers becomes too big over maker functioning worlwide. That power, (or gain as youn would model it into your system) is so large that the system becomes unstable, that means, it goes into a state of apparent stability but where any event can destabilize it. In engineering we call this METASTABILITY. Once the destabilization starts, you can not stop it, all your checks and balances in the system become powerless to stop the flood.
Krugman and the FOMC theorists know they are playing with fire, the big mathematicians of the Federal Reserve system have already modeled this. I passed (it was a lot of work but we are all connected :) and I had a very credible career in my field) them the theory and they modeled it and saw what I was saying since 2007, that you can not monetize the problem and expect a stable outcome, that the probability is that you will loose control of the system (by the way that means something that terrorizes central bankers, that you move the knobs and the system doesn´t respond the way you expect).
Then, why are they doing it the way they are, sadly, the reason is pretty simple, but sad: It is that they don´t have any other plan...
If you doubt me, read the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, the part about "markets starting to not function correctly". This will only get worse...
Until next time,
Engineer
Food prices follow energy prices.
Solar energy requireminents to produce food, have been roughly the same for about 300 million years.. Solar energy is responsible for all food on this planet, in one form or another.
If you believe that then I submit you've never farmed for a living.
the whole situation is miss understood in a basic sense.
Basically the Govt has two options for systems to expand the money supply, One is the current one, where the Gov issues debt when they spend more than the tax revenue (and other revenues) they receive, They issue bonds and in extreme case can have the central bank buy the debt which basically increases the money supply (i.e. dilutes the currency) to pay the debt.
The other possible option is to have no central bank (like was done before the FED) in which case the Govt can simply increase the money supply to cover excess spending.
Historically the second options has been looked down upon because the Got will be tempted to spend excessively causing large inflation and possible currency collapse (i.e. so they destroy all the peoples wealth),
In the current situation the FED use to only target short term rates via money market operations to control rates (and expand / contract the money supply) .. By buying long term bonds they are greatly increasing the risk of chaotic interest rate spike if inflation ever gets out of hand and possible they may create hyper inflation because they have diluted the currency to much.
So the real question is has the FED increased the money supply too much and thus is the US headed for excessive inflation and possible rate rise shock, which could lead to Govt funding collapse. or
has the increase in money supply by the FED been required because 1) the contraction in money supply was so large during the 2008 crash that such a large increase in money supply was required to compensate and 2) the contraction in demand from changing demographics (i.e. aging baby boomers) is further leading to a contraction in demand and hoarding of cash for retirement (again contraction of money supply) so say a 5-10 year period of unusually excessive money supply is required until the tax receipt / pension payouts balance again .. and then the supply can be reduced as the budget balances.
I think no one knows which is correct or which way this is headed but its all about the money supply and weather FED increase is excessive or required.
ie Govt debt can always be paid by increasing the money supply its weather the required increase ends up making the currency worthless or is sustainable..
Krugman: Schiff looks moronic spouting about hyperinflation; there hasn't even been inflation. And Mauldin is correct - technological advances will procure more and more oil, and oil's price will fall as supply increases....
When you say there hasn´t been inflation, where exactly do you mean? In the USA there has been huge inflation but not accounted in the CPI. But anyway, when the rate of total paper wealth growth exceeds the rate of growth of the total amount of goods and services created, by a larger and larger amount every day, what does the CPI matter? Nothing at all, since you must use forward projections to understand the value of money, not current as you may think. Just use this simplified example, the people in a close island (the earth) have this year 100 extra coins to spend in corn and next season they produce 100 bushes extra bushes of corn, and the value of corn next season is 1 coin per bush. Lets say that the next year you create 100 more coins out of thin air (by magic or pressing a FOMC key), and therefore the people have 200 more coins this time to spend in any extra corn that is produced. Lets assume that the people work very hard to increase production (GDP growth) but it looks like despite this the people are going to produce only 100 extra bushels of corn again, how much is each extra bushel? Obviously it will be around 2 coins per bushel. And what matters is not your current CPI, but how muc.h money you created out of thin air in relationship to the increase in worldwide GDP.
As you move forward, it will matter the velocity of money creation, then its acceleration, then its 3rd derivative and so on, until the whole system crashes. Your CPI will only react after it is to late.
Your argument of no inflation would be insulting to the intelligence of a monkey.
Until next time,
Engineer
You must know that's not how price works. Oil that's cheap to produce is dwindling and being replaced by oil that's increasingly expensive to produce. Just because the oil price has flattened out for the past two years doesn't mean the long term trend of rising real oil prices is finished.
Tight oil is important but beware those who mindlessly parrot exaggerated projections without knowing the business. Tight oil might push back peak oil by a decade or two but it will not make up for Gulf megafield depletion which remains very much in front of us. The depletion rates on tight oil are much faster than conventional. In a rosy scenario, US oil production will increase significantly for some time, but global oil production, not counting hexane or biofuels etc, will remain practically flat, and Asian demand will continue to hold up prices. The notion that food prices are set to come down is just myopic. Rising food prices will continue to shake up political systems across Asia and Africa.
The dollar isn't going down without a fight (i.e. WWIII).
The monatarists have painted themselves into a corner of shit with shit paint, and it's going to be a shitstorm getting out. The only solution they are offering is to rename currency debasement from "quantitative easing" to "NGDP targeting". I just laugh because if I didn't I would slit my wrists.
Mauldin's theory has always been that when pushed into a corner the politicians will make the tough choices and make the cuts.
They wont.
Mauldin is correct until the day that Schiff is right and the whole thing spirals out of control in the blink of an eye in the form of a currency crisis and an international run on the U.S. Tresury market
Stackers sums it up admirably. I concur with his remarks -- particularly insofar as Washington has neither the intention of curtailing spending, nor curbing the rate of increase of same.
In the end, Schiff's thesis is, unfortunately, more likely to win out.
yyep, just like the asian finanial crisis. except the capital flight will go into physical gold. gold wll bbe revalued. that is diffrent then a bull markket. forget everyting yoou know about bull markets
"the capital flight [is going] into physical gold."
fify
Mauldin seemed to have an agenda to me. Politicians do not make a right choice when pushed into a corner. they make even worse choices. Mauldin looked weasely ... and what's with chewing candies?
Mauldin seemed to be on drugs to me. But what do I know.
mauldin makes me puke....he is a name dropper......"oh I had lunch with senator Sukadik and he says not to worry.....everything is under control "........
Lil bit of a runny nose there, Mauldin. And he is wiping his fingers on his pants.
Drinking that wine.
No doubt...he's either on medication or he emptied to wine bottles on the table.
John definitely has been in the " tootski "...
Did you watch the entire video? He goes out of his way to talk about all the politicians he has rubbed elbows with. The guy looks like a vampire on coke. A psuedo intillectual brown noser. And could he kiss Rick Rule's ass anymore than he did during that 30 minute conference. Fuck that guy.
'Vampire on coke', that's a good visual of him.
Bad coke diluted with baby powder, hence the running nose.
Very similar to fiat money. Only precious metal will prevent you from running tears and nose bleeding in the future.
Most politicians today do not have the knowledge to be able to get it right. They have had decades of indoctrination to the path they are pursuing.
Most politicians today do not have the knowledge to be able to get it right. They have had decades of indoctrination to the path they are pursuing.
face ripped
Mauldin looks like Vlad the Impaler... (vampire)
Mauldin is a dipshit who believes that technology will solve all of our problems and that he will live to be 125 because of advances in medical technology. He's one of those guys who found himself in the right place at the right time and now thinks he's a genius. I wouldn't trust him to balance my checkbook let alone manage my money.
People have it all wrong with fracing too. it doesnt pencil. the only reason its popular is cuz of the cheap cost of ccapital for oil companies.
Here's a great paper on shale: http://shalebubble.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/SWS-report-FINAL.pdf
oil companies have plenty of revenue, with many of the frack service companies expanding and trying figure out where to park their extra cash. I see hydrofracking will keep the glut of North American gas flowing and see an LNG boomlet. It is not complicated and doesnt require expensive equipment like offshore, so prices will certainly come down some.
Bull now that's funny. I was looking at this dude and his pale face and thought he was dead and they were moving his lips
$140 Brent might be a problem.
Deficits are $1.2 trillion a year and unfunded liabilities are increasing at $6.9 trillion a year. In just a few years, Medicare will be bankrupt, adding $1 trillion a year to the deficit. Budget deficits will only grow from here. But you can dream the American dream since reality is a nightmare. In a galaxy far, far away, you can print your way to prosperity.
Mauldin is a dreamer and maybe even batshit crazy. Simple math says he's entirely wrong.
If, if, if....
Mauldin is right....if pixie dust and fairy tales can come true........WTF is wrong with him? Did he get a lobotomy last year? Looks like he took the Yellow pill for CRAAAAAAAZY shit.
Even if we could print trillions of dollars, we should not.
OT: I miss Captial Account.
I love how Schiff always laughs right in the face of fools. You see this in practically every video where Peter is "arguing" with an opponent.
Always a good time!
How do you reason with a shit for brains lefturd shill for the markets and the FED? You don't, you can't, you are waasting your time. My dollars buy a hell of a lot less today than they did 5 years ago before QE and "Ben Bernanke saving the economy". Fuck Bernanke, that cocksucker will burn in Jewish Hell for eternity.
thats a new one; you mean hell is compartmentalised? Maybe there is apartheid in hell. No wonder they say hell hath no fury like Jezebel.
Well, to be honest my understanding of Biblical "Hell" is very different from what is taught in the organized Churches and by the Jews, but it sure feels good to say Ben will burn in the lake of fire for eternity. :~)
Assfull of hot coals for that bastard.
If anybody is racist, it would be God.
You are wrong, Hedgetard ---- Orly's 99 cents/lb chicken breasts, and JimmyJames' constant inflation-adjusted prices, both prove that there is no inflation, and that there has not been any inflation for many years. Any minor price increases which you may have seen over the years are only transitory, and are merely the result of speculation.
(/sarc)
Exactly. So why did the US gov't start using all the hedonic adjustments on the CPI data decades ago?
Hint to Orly: To hide the real inflation numbers.
One has to wonder about the honesty and intellectual ability of anyone who believes that the US government itself, in its own CPI statistics (which show a positive rate of price increases annually for more than the last half-century), actually OVERSTATES the true rate of 'inflation' --- currency depreciation. They would have us believe that the federal government itself has been lying about its OWN currency depreciation over the last several years, to the upside!
It would be funny if it were not so insulting.
I was at the gym on Friday and KRON (local) news was trumpeting the headline "Employment surges. 276,000 new jobs added" (or whatever the number was). No mention that the number of full-time jobs actually went down and hundreds of thousands of people mysteriously left the work force. The sad thing is it's really not worth the effort trying to educate most people. They see it on KRON news, so it must be the truth.
The Farce can have a strong influence on the weak-minded.
And to hide the real inflation numbers prevents grandma getting a COLA. So does that mean grandma starves and quits spending money therefore causes deflation which causes chicken breasts to be 99 cents/lb?
Miffed;-)
Grandma can certainly substitute cat food for the 99 cents/lb chicken breasts (which originally were a substitution for ribeye steaks and filet mignon), and thereby lower her cost of living. It's all about finding bargains, after all, which in other words means that inflation is as dead as grandma is about to be. As long as we can all find food bargains, inflation does not exist.
Actually akak I did buy cat food last month for the barn cats. What was $22 /lb last Dec. is now $30. I refused to pay that for the barn cats figuring they could could get most of the nutrition they need in the vermin they catch. So I bought a 30# bag of crappy supermarket brand for $15( I substituted! I was so proud of my business acumen!) . First thing I noticed was cat barf everywhere. This morning I saw momma cat has lost a lot of hair on her back and another one has a cough. They always had been very healthy. I guess the only humane thing to do is get their regular food back. So what's the substitution for cat food when grandma can no longer afford the lowest quality gut rot cat food on the market?
Miffed;-)
I guess when grandma can no longer afford to eat catfood, there are always ..... the cats.
Hey, I mean, if it's good enough for 1 billion+ Chinamen, it's good enough for grandma!
After all, it's "hedonic", dontcha know!
Good point. I read a book about the Argentinian economic collapse and the author highly recommend cat for the city dwellers ( avoid pigeon and dog tastes like crap...maybe argentinians have different culinary tastes from Chinese !)Unfortunately, as one would expect, the cat supply ran out and starvation ensued. I guess at some point one just runs out of substitutions.Perhaps Ben will enlighten us when that step comes.
Miffed:-)
Good thing you put that "sarc" sign in there akak, or else I would have suspected you went over to the dark side.
(/sarc).
Bravo for the perseverance in sticking up for that view. She missed the data being relayed by those charts but what should we expect, she probably didn't go through the links I gave her or if she did, she completely missed the explanation of the data
CC, it was almost with pain that I read your exchanges with Orly in the thread under your article --- her repeated evasions of facts and arguments which refute her unfounded assertions I find to be both infuriating and insulting, not just to those directly involved but to everyone reading those exchanges as well.
The only chart I referred to was the ECB liquidity conditions. If you think I missed the point of your own chart, perhaps you should rethink what you didn't say.
If ECB liquidity is falling off so rapidly, it is only the Fed that can keep them afloat by fronting dollars through the back-door. That won't last forever and that situation is a decidedly delfationary prospect.
If I am wrong, I would love to hear a reason. But I don't hear a reason, do I? I hear you and akak snickering about me elsewhere in these pages. I couldn't go through the data because it requires a subscription that I haven't received or had time to view.
In the meantime, I am making Chicken Kyiv with my $1.97/lb. chicken breasts (the $.99/lb. was for the split breasts...) and I don't want to waste my time listening to a couple of sniggering kids who offer nothing but insults to me or anyone who thinks like me.
Snigger on, boyz! You're all growed up now.
:/
On the contrary, Orly, I and others here have given you and JimmyJames both logical arguments and unassailable facts to counter your ridiculous deflationary thesis --- arguments and facts from which the both of you repeatedly have, if not fled seemingly in terror, like a vampire from garlic, then certainly evaded.
However, it is not so much your opinions themselves for which I find you so contemptible, as it is your blatant lack of honesty and your insultingly frivolous, shallow, anecdotal, evasive and specious arguments, which rightfully earn you the scorn and downarrows which you have rightfully earned in this forum. If somebody (like yourself) is going to attempt to pass themself off as informed and erudite as you do, and then consistently fall back into making illogical and specious arguments, and even worse, fail to address the simply-stated objections and arguments of others, then don't expect to receive much respect from others here, or elsewhere.
She is a skanky ho who will burn in Jewish Hell besides her hero, Benjamin Shalom Bernanke.
One of the reasons I come here is to get a different perspectives from different backgrounds. I don't necessarily want everybody to think like me in every aspect. I value your posts and perspectives (akak) and I find myself agreeing with Orly on many subjects. All I'm saying is say what you think, let others say what they want and fuck the Ego.
I give no quarter to obvious and egregious liars, nor will I apologize for doing so.
Dishonesty and lies do not constitute a mere "differing opinion", and I am insulted by anyone who would suggest that they do.
You're tunring out to be quite the bully boy aren't you?
Pray tell us, what kind of awful shit in your life makes you so angry with yourself that you need to harass a good contributor on an internet forum? Share this with us will you? And then get a grip.
W, it is fight club , so toughen up pussy. AKAK takes the gloves off and calls a liar a liar - that is something that is rare and is something that I appreciate and admire.
Persistent harassment is not the same as a good old punch up.
akak has got personal issues he needs to face rather than take on other people anonymously. The boy's behaving like your average angry and frustrated bully. He needs to man up.
You should know the difference.
W, at least you are consistent in being a pussy. You double downed on dumb. and solidified your rock solid position as a pussy. Akak is engaging in a reasoned argument with opponents that are bringing rubber knives to a gunfight, and when the brain dead opponents get a verbal thrashing, all the pussys can do is try to re-frame the issue into ' you are a meanie meanie and a bully ' . Like I said , toughen up.
Taunting is not reasoning.
Again, you should know the difference.
P.S. 'pussy'... you're so cooool, such a tough guy :-)
On the contrary, Orly, I and others here have given you and JimmyJames both logical arguments and unassailable facts to counter your ridiculous deflationary thesis --- arguments and facts from which the both of you repeatedly have, if not fled seemingly in terror, like a vampire from garlic, then certainly evaded.
************
LMAO--you have produced nothing but bullshit--you have "never" posted any data to back your complete assbackward claims..ever..ohhhhhh sorry--forgot your grocery receipts--those prove beyond a shadow of doubt that deflation cannot be possible--
Happy shopping fool-
Please, your "arguments" on inflation have been thoroughly discredited here @ ZH.
The fact you can sit there and say "there is no inflation" speaks volumes about your intellectual dishonesty and almost trollish attitude.
And don't forget, BoP, Orly implicitly if not explicitly agreed, more than once, with JimmyJames' sputtering nonsense that "constant inflation-adjusted prices prove that there is no inflation".
While I find it distasteful to harangue a fellow ZHer, aside from an obvious troll such as AnAnonymous (a category into which I do NOT lump Orly), it is equally distasteful to read such distorted and reality-denying tripe as Orly's "no inflation for years!" propaganda. Bernanke himself does not go to such dishonest extremes in his defenses of the monetary status quo, and I will be damned if I would sit back and let such vile and malicious lies go unchallenged.
People do not understand that there are two kinds of deflation:
- good deflation when stuff if overproduced like computers for exaple.
- bad deflation when input costs are in hyperinflation but people can't afford the finished products, hence they are sold at no profit or at a loss until the economy bankrupts and nothing is produced.
We are right now having bad deflation due to commodities hyperinflation, input costs hyperinflation.
A normally growing economy is intrinsically deflationary as good deflation, since goods get overproduced due to demand and higher wages. This is not the case now. We are having the bad deflation.
Spoken like a true politician.
If you don't like the facts just redefine them or, if necessary, even redefine for some part where you don't like the implications while at the same time leaving it for the other part.
Tell me for example:
You can still buy a new T-shirt for $12.99 on sale, just like 10 years ago.
However a decade ago you would get a thick cotton one which was virtually indestructible in normal use, then over the years they got thinner and thinner (not just one brand - all of them!), and nowadays you have to look close to find a 100% cotton one for that price anymore (as more and more are made of 50% synthetic fiber).
Now is this good or bad deflation?
What you are describing is inflation, not deflation.
Same as packaged food. Same price less food. It's inflation.
Really? In nominal terms? It's still a T-shirt, even nowadays.
There where do we actually have real deflation, good or bad type?
Good deflation is the PC's price. Computers have become so cheap. That's a natural course of a normal economy.
Bad deflation is when money supply shrinks (let's say increase in taxes so people can afford less expenses) or increase in input prices without being able to pass the charge to the customers.
I am talking about FINISHED PRODUCTS PRICE DEFLATION. Inflation of input costs is deflation for finished products if the price cannot be increased.
Computers are an example of technological progess making things cheap. That is not deflation, it is maybe disinflation.
increase in input prices without being able to pass the charge to the customers
So how do you know my T-shirt example doesn't fall in that category?
How do you determine in a general, replicable way if the price can or cannot be increased, after inflation of input costs?
Orly,
Where in hades you get .99 cent a # Chicken breasts?,that might(won't) even buy WINGS.
H.E.B. Pantry Foods. Chicken wings are $2.12/lb. I don't buy them because I am paying for bones.
And while I am here, may I remind everyone that this is a discussion forum. YOU'RE discussion forum. If you continue to allow vulgarity and name-calling to rule these boards, guess what you're going to get.
Honest and differing dialogue is what has made Zerohedge great but if you would prefer all "discussion" to devolve into an exercise in confirmation bias, please allow akak and his minions to shout down anyone with a different opinion or even <gasp!> statistics to back up what they're saying.
Pretty soon, you won't have Orly to kick around any more, much as many of the true thinkers have already left here. It's a shame enough already.
Think about it.
The loss of another insultingly arrogant and brazenly dishonest ZH poster is no loss at all.
She certainly has a high opinion of herself doesn't she?
Differing opinion? I read all that crap over at Mish's amd Ackermann's boards for 4 or 5 years (deflationist) and most their ideas and predictions have turned out to be incorrect.
As I have told her, and everyone else here, my objections against, and contempt of, Orly has little to do with her actual differing opinions (there are certainly others in the deflationary camp here), but is instead the result of her repeated lack of good faith in engaging in honest debate (most egregiously by continually evading facts and arguments demolishing her own), as well as her repeated assertions of unambiguous falsehoods regarding the ongoing currency debasement of the last five or six years, and more generally the past several decades. She goes so far as to even deny the federal government's OWN statistics (laughably lowballed as they are) on general price increases over the past several years.
When it comes to the topic of inflation and currency debasement, Orly is as glaringly and willfully dishonest as Jon Nadler is (well, was) on the subject of gold. I truly despise her, and all like her, and the overwhelming dishonesty in which she has engaged here.
Yes, Orly, please leave, you liar --- and good riddance to bad rubbish.
Ok, Mauldin either had a runny nose or looking at his complexion is a cokehead. At 7:52 and especially 8:41, I swear the guy is giving tell-tale signs he's a regular coke user... Wouldn't be a surprise considering the shit he's spewing.
He has hawked some sort of rejuvenating skin cream on his letters before. Beyond that I wish he'd stop spitting into the microphone.
"two of the best minds in the business"...now thats a gem!
If Mauldin has an IQ in correlation with his remarks I'm worried about what the worst minds in the business look like!
I love Peter,does that make me gay ?
I think so...
The 30 Year Treasury defined by Jim Grant as "return free risk". Priceless!
Mauldin comes accross like an educated fool and a shill. What an asshole.
But you repeat yourself, twice.
But he does promote the buying of gold
And then Maudlin rips off his mask and elevator shoes to reveal himself a feeble Paul Krugman.
I would assume that Mauldin is at the top of the list for a Nobel in Economics.
Ok now I;ve had a few beers but that was fucking funny,and I still love Peter Schiff
It's time to pray that gay away.
"The Fed "can print trillions" and the dollar will surge"
- "We don't have that much oil"
"The dollar will stay the world's reserve currency"
- "You don't have that much firepower"
Mauldin's a skitz
Oil revolution? What a joke.
Check for exmple 'oil equivalents':
http://news.exxonmobil.com/press-release/exxonmobil-major-projects-deliv...
Any data you hear is about OIL EQUIVALENTS, not crude oil.
I do NOT TRUST any data about crude oil, in fact I do not trust anything from the gov and further down I do not trust any data from any local federal reserve branches.
the EIA numbers don't lie. we're WELL above the 5 year average for storage for oil, oil equivalents, natural gas, refined product, etc...etc...etc. this is stuff already out of the ground. at the same time demand has completely collapsed (doubt it will ever recover actually) and the cost of Canadian crude is 30 bucks a barrel cheaper "with nowhere to go." we don't need to "imagine" a technological revolution. Nissan has already greatly improved their Leaf...can't say it's worth the $19,000 price since i don't own one...but clearly if the range keeps improving each model year i fail to see why anyone on the planet will start using anything but "chemical combustion" in the near future (3-5 years?). i do agree Maudlin needs to wear a hat or some sunglasses or something...he appears to be morphing into something "beyond human." we may in fact be witnessing an evolutionary leap in humankind. I don't know about all of you but i plan i staying tuned on this one...
EIA is an agency of the government.
If you believe EIA numbers, then you believe BLS employment numbers also, I'd conclude
The mod kinda sounds like David Letterman.
Peter is my hero. He tuned me in in 2000 and it has been quite the ride. From small money in a mutual fund ( yeah, I was that dense) to a boat filled with PMs ( that sank in the river).
Deficit has to be under nominal GDP. Well that is what they all say. Otherwise you have an implosion very quickly. Since the statistics are no longer believable let the implosion continue. Maudlin has a Texas chew in his mouth and an old school form of impressed credibility in his mind. He is tired, sick and maybe a little intoxicated.
Now here is my take. It is all bullshit because the FED has mixed the US economy with a world economy at the basis of the existing financial system. The TBTF have essentially brought the western world under one financial umbrella such that to discuss individual countries as having seperate budgets is nonsense. This financial mixing of countries budgets could not be accomplished without treasonous finacial acts. Mauldin should have known that budgets can't be reduced no matter how much he would like to think they can be. Rational thinking has long since been run out of a system that now operates on fraud and impunity to law. But he agrees that if the finances of Government aren't brought down a crash is coming. He does not want to admit reality because the alternative leaves him without a sense of reason.
He and everyone else may soon encounter a sense that they are floating. That the forces reason and those that have given rise to substance and shape have disappeared. The gravity of the financial situation will not only lessen but be blotted out in flashes of war.
The bears are back: why we are ungovernable, explained in terms even a moron, a Keynsian (or John Maudlin) could understand
http://youtu.be/0mtv25Juxlc
"Stupidity is not an uniquely American phenomenon, they just do it better."
Yep.
GDP is not a good proxy for prosperity. Mauldin is always saying he's worried about the economy suffering with govt deficit reduction, says it will decrease GDP. So what!? Mauldin, quit hobnobbing with the Keynesian economists & government 'leaders'. You won't be able to name-drop so much but they probably don't respect you anyway. You're just a useful tool to them.
When the fuck will deficit reduction ever happen unless they just do it?
Not with Obama in the White House. "Balls of marshmallow" is right. Shifty bastard.
change comes out of necessaity
necessaity comes, only by crisis....
the government debt is the money supply, base, when the system
of lending money into existence fails. they blame the government
but no one complains about the structural flaw in the money system,
the creation process, the distribution structure, the back up
fed stick saves, the imbalance that results. they are not concerned
with fixing the system or identifying it's terminal flaws, only
gaming it to further drive it into the shitter. so, good for them?
at least mauldin admitted there are great deals in greece but do you
really want to go live in greece today. if the system isn't fixed
from top to bottom greece will look like a vacation spot compared to
what the uk, the usa and etc ... will look like soon, perhaps.
purchasing power is a key element in an economy, the system destroys
that by it's very structure and function. imo
Isn’t it amazing that we let a handful of macro economists in the Fed and Wall Street dictate the monetary policy and money supply of the world, when you consider there aren’t two economists in the world who agree on everything, and there aren’t more than two economists in the world who agree on anything.
Looking at the 6 month downward gold price curve tells me the miners have bigger problems than 'acting like a small government'. If this continues the gold (physical) will all get bought up....the strong hands won't sell....then it will get really interesting.
Bumper Sticker: "I'm bullish on real people, bearish on the necks of bankers and politicians."
Nice to hear Schiff speak the truth about the U.S. FED and national debt: "We never pay our bills...we run a giant ponzi scheme."
Mauldin's full of shit, Schiff is correct as usual, and for some strange reason, the minute Rick Rule starts talking, I want to punch him in the mouth...
You mean even when he was pimping the Showtime Rotisserie Grill at the Home & Garden show?
The downfall of the American economy has rewarded Schiff very nicely. "Greed is good!"
I have followed your comments.
I have a feeling you are actually Michael Hudson.
: )
Lol homeboy moldin is drunk. He likes name droping, "when i wrote my last book", and on the topic of macro econ.... "I wont get into the equations"
I know cats like this. They are more interested in sounding profound than any thing else. How the fuck do these cats get to the level they are at i will never know
They have sheeple throw money at them to invest, and make a % on it.
Mauldin is either delusionally positive or just talking his book (remember, he has 7 kids).
His newsletters constantly are about him jet-setting about to exotic locations where money managers talk about "managing" their clients money. All that high living leaves an incentive to talk your book and tell people things can be solved.
"There's a sucker born every minute."
PT Barnum
Mauldin's stuttering his way through his bullshit. He can't even keep up with someone with an actual brain.
Mauldin is a name-dropper, schmoozer, and networker. It doesn't mean that his newsletter doesn't have some things worth reading but it is always an analysis by someone else with Mauldin saying 'look at this!'
Mauldin is afraid of getting old and dying. Tries to make himself look young. Has mentioned in his letters he wants to be frozen when he dies.
He's obviously visited a few plastic surgeons in his life. Grecian Formula on the hair and eyebrows.
What else is he trying to hide?
As a subscriber to John Mauldin's weekly newsletter, I've always been surprised at his relentless optimism. I wish I shared it!
Last spring, he indicated that time is running short, and that he expects us to hit the debt brick wall in 2013 or 2014. He said to watch Japan because it is "a bug looking for a windshield", and when Japan has its day of reckoning, that may be the next trigger for another global crisis.
I've found that predicting the future is for prophets, not profits! No one knows precisely what's coming, and that includes both Mauldin and Schiff. But I value both perspectives and read their analysis every chance I get. Thanks for posting this!
pssst...it's a ponzi scheme.
Mauldin: "...The Fed will be able to print more money than seems rational"
Do these people actually hear the words that come out of their mouth?
Actually, he is right... They already have printed more money than seems rational.
I believe in equations but I don't believe in fallacious equations lke GDP. Keynes understood the hubris of the politicians who would see themselves as saviors. Unfortunately, GDP doesn't take into account that government is a parasite that takes useful money and neuters it.
rip mauldins two face, face
Mauldin is an inside man that publishes his thoughts free as a poser to the masses. Nothing is ever free for the masses, at least nothing worth a shit. His rag flunked my sniff-O-lyzer some years back.
An apologist at best, a spin meister at worst.
Can't say I am exceptionally fond of Schiff either, not sure why he instills in me no trust. Maybe just his delivery.
Makes one wonder if there is being a slow release of information specifically to pepper the masses with the truth(Alex Jones for one, his controversial videos remain on YT and hum), so that when the SHTF, there will have been that rumor which they did not take seriously, it was that unbelievable. Then, their reaction will be mixed with regret and confusion, rather than anger and looking for a person to blame (needed badly) sendings millions to go completely bonkers. Similar to elevator music, you hear it but then you don't. Element of surprise is there but the sheeple will say "I should have paid more attention."
Would also say that some believe O-Phones are about tracking and obtaining a history on a individual through communications and not about generosity.
A set up? Well Middle class has outgrown it's use and govts have wars to fight and bribes to take. It's rather disheartening because to think like this requires a man to say, "we need to get rid of these people, so let's choke them off at the pass." Sounds horrid, dark, medieval, but the paintings in an airport, the central information center, the riot gear and arming of the US security force in preparation for engagement in battle, oh...and the SECRECY and obscuration, semantics, and complete refusal to respond/acknowledge the facts, the shows with the clear message. Someone is going down.
The olympics presentation was crazy talk of death and rebirth..Birth of what? oh...a new world...order!
I think we are in the formula that will lead to these people creating their own private bliss...the whole world will be the playground. It's a war machine that could make this possible. I sometimes wonder if all leaders are not consulting with one another about the "people problem" and what a pain in the ass it is to be a leader but can't beat the fringe benefits.
This debate about the nature of money is horeshit.
We are where we are because of government policies
Entitlements and moving manufacturing and now other jobs offshore - making our cell phones so cheap.
Dumbest comment of the week.
Mauldin got it half right. We likely won't be importing oil in 2022, because OPEC won't be selling it to us. It's reckless to believe that shale/tar sand recoveries will be able to come close to compensating for the output declines that we'll see in the Middle East.
However, his speech wasn't a complete waste, as I've realized that my punishment in Hell will consist of having phone sex with John Mauldin for the remainder of eternity.
Its official! Mauldin's a fucking idiot. I can't believe he referenced Keynes' 2nd year macro economic two-dimensional pos equation at this kind of forum. I stopped watching at precisely that moment. dGDP/dGov < 0. Has to be and always will be.
Screw Mauldin and Schiff - the greeks are not coddled children (ff to 27min for that comment). If they had refused to nationalize their banking system's debt they'd be broke, but mostly fine. I hope ALL of Europe defaults and pulls an Iceland - put the central bankers in jail and tell the ones who didn't explicitly break the law to enjoy the 100% haircut.