Kyle Bass Warns "The 'AIG' Of The World Is Back"

Tyler Durden's picture

Kyle Bass, addressing Chicago Booth's Initiative on Global Markets last week, clarified his thesis on Japan in great detail, but it was the Q&A that has roused great concern. "The AIG of the world is back - I have 27 year old kids selling me one-year jump risk on Japan for less than 1bp - $5bn at a time... and it is happening in size." As he explains, the regulatory capital hit for the bank is zero (hence as great a return on capital as one can imagine) and "if the bell tolls at the end of the year, the 27-year-old kid gets a bonus... and if he blows the bank to smithereens, ugh, he got a paycheck all year." Critically, the bank that he bought the 'cheap options' from recently called to ask if he would close the position - "that happened to me before," he warns, "in 2007 right before mortgages cracked." His single best investment idea for the next ten years is, "Sell JPY, Buy Gold, and go to sleep," as he warns of the current situation in markets, "we are right back there! The brevity of financial memory is about two years."

 

Click the image below for the full presentation (unembeddable):

The main thrust of the discussion is Bass' thesis on Japan's pending collapse - which we wrote in detail on here, here, and here - and while the details of this thesis should prepare most for the worst, it is the Q&A that provides some very clear insights into just what is going on in the world.

Starting at around 50:00...

Bass On Immigration Reform in Japan - hailed as a solution to the demographic problem - Bass says "Ain't gonna happen. They need wage inflation and this will not encourage that. It's an untenable situation." Summing up his whole view on Japan - "I just don't think it can be fixed."

Question: When you look today in the capital markets at the tactical asymmetry that exists among the various financial instruments to take advantage of cheap optionality - what is that instrument?

I'll give you guys a bit of an idea... we don't talk about exactly what
we do - we tell you how much we love coke but we're not gonna give you
the formula.

 

The AIG of the world is back - I have 27 year old kids selling me one-year jump risk on Japan for less than 1bp - $5bn at a time.

 

You know why? Because it's outside of a 95% VaR, its less than one-year to maturity, so guess what the regulatory capital hit is for the bank... I'll give you a clue - it rhymes with HERO...

 

If the bell tolls at the end of the year, the 27-year-old kid gets a bonus... and if he blows the bank to smithereens, ugh, he got a paycheck all year.

 

We are right back there! The brevity of financial memory is about two years.

 

I wouldn't sell nuclear holocaust risk in Dallas for 1bp - you should be fired for thinking about selling something for less than 50bps.. and yet - this is happening again...

 

And it's happening in huge size - huge - we bought half a trillion dollars worth of these 'options'... and interestingly enough, one of the biggest banks in the world called me the other day and asked me if I would close my position - that was an interesting day for us - that happened to me in 2007 right before the mortgages cracked.

 

They said "we ran some new risk tests," and I said "really?"

"Yeah, the new stress scenario is a little more punitive than the last one."
"What is it?"
"Well, we don't wanna share our proprietary secrets"
"Ok, then I am not closing it",
and they said "woe woe woe.. in our old model rates stressed 50bps, in the new one they stress 400bps"
"Yeah, that would really hurt wouldn't it".
"Yeah, we'd like to close that one"
"I'd like to but I am not going to do that for you"...

The point is - Why would they run a stress test like that? They are starting to realize! Who would have them run that stress test. It's happening again.

Question: Do you buy guns, gold, neither, or both?

I don't get paid to be an optimist, I don't get paid to be pessimist, I get paid to be a realist - and a prudent fiduciary of the capital, and then if i have time I care about the social issues of the world.

 

If I am right, the social issues are going to be very difficult. I don't think we devolve into anarchy and I do think the payment systems will continue to work but what they will pay with will be wumpum...

 

We will go thru a period where its a little tougher...

 

We went through a period where it was briefly tough and now there are 1400 new billionaires in the world - maybe some capital was misallocated...

Question: Which one investment would make for the next ten years

I would buy Gold in JPY and go to sleep... Sell JPY, Buy Gold, Go to sleep, and wake up ten years later and you'll be fine. Don't put all yourr money in it but that is the single best investment you can make today.

(h/t @EquityAnalystNY)

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ItsEvolutionBaby's picture

i do love me some kyle bass

i'll listen to this while i play dota 

Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Investors are always right, economists are always wrong - Zero Hedge plays on.

palmereldritch's picture

And TrillionDollarBoner_ strikes again

SafelyGraze's picture

I had to install microsoft silverspy on my machine in order to watch the video

discussion

 

nope-1004's picture

lmao!!!  Big government-backed insolvent bank phones Hayman, "uh, would ya mind not betting against us like that?  Please?  Pretty please?"

Bankers...... dumber than a sack of shit.

 

Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Funny how Tyler did not mentin Austin put the forum together.

Ignore the economists!

#sarc

TruthInSunshine's picture

http://krugmantimes.com/

Congrats on your brand new newspaper, Dr. Krugman!

Dr Paul Krugman's picture

Edit:  Austan.

I guess the scotch has gotten the best of me tonight.

Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture


"If I am right, the social issues are going to be very difficult.
 I don't think we devolve into anarchy and I do think the payment systems will continue to work but what they will pay with will be wumpum..."

 

 

Isn't it nice to know there's a payment system that will keep on going and gaining value after the TBTF start crashing?  

 

Isn't is nice to know that I'll be able to get supplies from afar?  

 

 

Bitcoin holders safe.


http://www.quickmeme.com/Bitcoin-owners-safe/?upcoming

LawsofPhysics's picture

When fraud is the status quo, possession is the law.  Get physical, sleep well.  Wake us when those bitcoin buy diesel for my tractors.  Morons will be morons and sheep will be sheep.  Let the fleecing continue.

Popo's picture

Microsoft Silverlight? FAIL.

I'd love to watch me some Kyle Bass, but I prefer a browser that doesn't run dog slow.

zaphod's picture

So how do I short JPY as a retail player? 

Any suggestions?

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

When vodka is get better of Boris, is break a few Krugman... good for economy.

TruthInSunshine's picture

There is saying in Mother Russia:

"Those who live in Duroplast state owned apartment (projects) not to throw empty Stolichnaya bottles at neighbor sleeping in Trabant or Lada."

Manthong's picture

Krugman for President.. what a concept.  :D

50:35

GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

Well....he's already got the Nobel Prize.

 

He's totally qualified.

WelfareFTW's picture

HAHAHAHA, OMFG, How the eff do you guys come up with this s**t day after day... you guys fucking rock! hilarious....

French Frog's picture

Yes, from the serious to the funny, the wit & repartee of many ZH replies are often as, if not more, enlightening than the original article

DblAjent's picture

 

 

 

I come here for the articles, but more for the comments

Boris Alatovkrap's picture

Boris is come to zero hedge because is not like shrubs, but stay for humorous intake.

youngman's picture

Why not???? It won´t hurt the car...

Alexandre Stavisky's picture

Naively many thought 2008 with the bank failures, AIG, GSEs, Primary dealer backstop, full ramp monetization, TARP, and 50% collapse in equities was the systemic shock that, regardless of gov't response, would keep the dominoes rolling to force restructuring, defaults, re-denominations of currencies and step devaluations.  I never thought that the nation would accept the financial abuse and would understand the repercussions of Fed et al showing up every day with 4 billion in thin-air money.

I was wrong.  I naively thought all the stakeholders response to open global monetization would inevitably lead toward the reset.  I was wrong.  It seems it wasn't financial armageddon.  And now, with that sour wisdom, I believe all nations that can print money, may go that next huge leap and issue currency without sterilization of buying newly issued bonds.  If the dissaving by Japanese threatens to spike bond yields and interest payments, those bonds will be further suppressed.  The central banks may be the one and only buyer and may suppress interest rates to absolute (even negative) zero yields.  They could easily make instant devaluations.

The responses show that they intend to never lose control again.  Issuance of currency irrespective of historical mechanisms can go on a long, long time.  We are past A-Ha moments.  We are past classical behaviour.  We are already deep into thin money creation and distribution.  When all the currencies are controlled, and globally large players are coordinated, outcomes will be what they dictate. The can suppress whatever they want, sponsor whatever they want, and all the stakeholders have to take it.

So even with foreign exchange risk, current account deficits, industrial contraction, lopsided demographics, retail liquidations of scale, massive debt rollover, ad infinitum, where is an investor to flee to?  If it is all arranged and coordinated and backstopped, why would anyone still be putting on trades?  Maybe 1 basis point for jump risk isn't cheap, maybe in this "new normal" it is free money for the seller.

Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

This is hilarious stuff, TiS.

 

That offer for a beer in btc stands if you want to.

TruthInSunshine's picture

Thanks. If you noticed, I didn't comment on the bitcoin article ZH published today.

As far as I'm concerned, I don't know enough about it to make comments that I'm confident are fair or informed, and I also don't like to see any rift develop between people who agree that one of the most significant root causes of our economic crisis is that fractional reserve banking alchemists are conjuring fiat literally from nothing, that enjoys monopoly status, and they are distributing it for free or nearly for free to their select best friends forever, to the proportional interference with and destruction of economic production that provides real goods & services, adding real value, productivity & utility to peoples' lives.

Until someone can convince me otherwise with concrete facts, those who endorse the use of bitcoin are on the same side as anyone calling out the fractional reserve fiat fraud for what it is and the damage it has done and is doing to the real economy and real people.

Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

Sure.  Let's see what history has in store.  

KB is talking about breaking a bank here, and a payment system under severe stress.  

Oh well, good luck to you and please keep the comments flowing.  

High-risk high-reward, right?  Let the chips fall where they may.

eatthebanksters's picture

I'll bet the banks will pay a lot more than the 1bp Kyle paid to buy those swaps back...

Sweet Chicken's picture

Truth In Sunshine for president! 

   ......and Law of Physics for VP

steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

" ... to the proportional interference with and destruction of economic production that provides real goods & services, adding real value, productivity & utility to peoples' lives."

 

 

This hardy weed never dies, even as it is demonstrably false. Everything that emerges from 'economic (presumably industrial) production is subsidized by debt and must be. If economic production paid for itself it would have already. There would be no debts as any would be resolved by simply deploying more 'productive' machines.

 

The economy provides borrowed fortunes for a handful of tycoons and plutocrats, some worthless, time-wasting junk.

 

Instead of productive 'output' the world's nations and peoples are burdened by hundreds of trillions of dollar-debts, that can never be repaid, against collateral that no longer exists. Almost every 'good' in the US-style waste-based economy costs more than any possible return.

 

Our industries are subsidized by debt: it cannot be otherwise nor has it ever been otherwise, we simply lie to ourselves about the nature of our activities as if nature herself can be persuaded by public relations campaigns.

 

Sadly for the believers, the 2d law of thermodynamics has a different view of 'economic production' and is now assigning real costs that cannot be evaded or papered over with wishful thinking or false beliefs.

 

 

Doomer's picture

So, who wants to lend me a couple billion JPY so I can buy some gold?

What rate can I get for 10 years?

Have your people call my people.

Abe, are you listening?

auric1234's picture
I loved the: 4 Killed in Paul Krugman Monetary Policy By PAUL KRUGMAN

A market correction who went on a multiple equilibria in two communities in utility function remained on the market efficiency.

 

Bendromeda Strain's picture

Sonofab...

Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, accompanied by the State Police superintendent, Joseph D’Amico, rushed to the village, where he was photographed near where the gunman was believed to be holed up. A news conference was repeatedly delayed as the gunman remained at large.

That effin' whore can't wait to dance on some bodies to make political points. If it was NYPD his ass might have got "inadvertantly" shot.

One can dream anyways.

AbbeBrel's picture

I can only wonder how Hugh Hendry is positioned - My guess is that he has also loaded up on insanely cheap "risk premium".

"That success was simply a matter of contentious macro posturing. In other words, going long very rich risk premium or buying cheap stuff. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/hugh-hendry-back-full-eclectica-letter


eatthebanksters's picture

Some guys know how to sniff out deals...Bass is one, Hendry is another (and there are plenty more)...one thing they have in common is that they tend to piss off the entrenched establishment with their brutal honesty....imagine that!

Mactheknife's picture

Sure would be nice to know which bank that is...

 

 

Lost My Shorts's picture

I hope they are too big to fail.

If risk jumps, who does Bass think will pay off his half-trillion?  The bank which is already insolvent on a MTM basis even before the event?  Or does he expect the taxpayer to cover it?  What's Texan for bleep you?

Either Bass paid for nothing on those 1-bp derivatives, just to have a funny talking point, or he is one evil bastard.  When Wall Street turns into a casino, both the player and the house are evil.

csmith's picture

"...he is one evil bastard."

Why blame Kyle? No easier money to be made than that which comes from bureacrats/taxpayers/central banks. Why look anywhere else? They NEVER learn.

Lost My Shorts's picture

AIG required a taxpayer bailout to save the under-priced bets purchased by Goldman Sachs.

Now Kyle Bass brags that he is playing the GS role, purchasing underpriced bets from a bank that will need a taxpayer bailout if the bets pay off.

How popular is GS around here?  How is Kyle bass any better?

Just askin'

eatthebanksters's picture

Soros is an evil bastard...Bass is an opportunist.  Bass will never wait to try and collect a half trillion....by the time that event happens it ill be too late to collect.  He just bought a diamond for pennies in the bargain basement of Woolworths...now he's gonna stand out in front of Tiffany's and sell it for half its real value and still make a fucking killing.  I love the way this guy thinks!

JailBank's picture

Because KB didn't create synthetic CDOs and sell/reccomend them to customers meanwhile betting against the very products he created to make money. Bass saw a product offered by the bank that the bank decided had nearly 0 risk and he bought it.

 

I recall in all the testimony from the TBTF banks after the collapse of Lehman that is was buyer beware and the banks plus ratings agencies were not at fault, the Germans should have known what they were buying. Don't compare a person that found a nitch in the market and exploited a bank selling this crap for GS or JPM.

Lost My Shorts's picture

I will compare them exactly.

Both exploited poor risk management and the greed of individual staff at TBTF institutions.  Both placed huge bets that the counterparty couldn't / can't pay.  Both knew / know the counterparty couldn't / can't pay.  Goldman later collected from US taxpayers.  Bass would do the same.

Looks identical to me in every respect that matters.

steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

IF his short-term ... < 1 year ... bet pays then the bank is gone and Bass is paid in funny money. Joke's on him.

 

Counterparty failure ... difficult to hedge must less profit from.

Bendromeda Strain's picture

Ya right, you and the genius above you have it all figured out. Let me know when Austan Goolsbee calls you... besides to have his car brought around that is. If the joke is on him, guess what is all over you.

kaiserhoff's picture

If he recovers a few pennies on the dollar, he's still way ahead.

Hell, it might be fun to own a big bank.

irishlink's picture

Considering the junk on the Books of all the banks and that includes central banks and especially British banks it will not matter which bank as anyone of them is qualified to be the first domino.

TruthInSunshine's picture

LMAO

http://krugmantimes.com/

Now THAT is some funny shit.

Someone spent a lot of time on that, and it's some of the best comedy I've encountered in a LONG time, since great comedy contains a lot of truth.