This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Swirlogram Shows Slowdown Is Here

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Despite the hopes and greed of the marginal greater fool algo lifting equity markets to highs, Goldman's business cycle 'swirlogram' has dropped notably into the 'Slowdown' phase after a brief 6-month trip into 'Expansion'. China growth risks remain the largest weight on investors' angst (Chinese IP growth and retail sales for the January/February period were sequentially weaker, and overall disappointing) as Euro and US risks have 'apparently' fallen in the last week or two.

 

 

Chart: Goldman Sachs

 

- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:27 | 3323907 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

we're swirling off the lows.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:37 | 3323933 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

Green  shoots bitchez.... o wait, slow down?

Eat your peas bitchez!!

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 18:26 | 3324094 FL_Conservative
FL_Conservative's picture

I'm down with the swirl.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 22:58 | 3324805 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

at last, it's swirled peas. 

and not a moment too soon.  thank you mr. obama.  thank you mr. bush.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:43 | 3323952 BandGap
BandGap's picture

I thought I talked to Tyler about this type of graphing.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:54 | 3323987 Ying-Yang
Ying-Yang's picture

Ben believes it is the Corriolis force which is caused by the rotation of the earth.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 18:03 | 3324023 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Actually; The global economy.

Circling the drain.

Speeding up as it gets ever closer.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 18:10 | 3324046 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"Between now and that day of reckoning, you can rest assured the purchasing power of your money will continue to erode. This, of course, means that to make a profit, you have outpace inflation."

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1363011300.php

Daddy...what was it like in a peaceful economy before the war?


Tue, 03/12/2013 - 18:18 | 3324074 akak
akak's picture

World economy:
like a post-buffet floater
circling the bowl.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 19:28 | 3324028 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

I was looking at a list of various asset class price increases earlier (and it's a short list on a relative basis, and understates the overall appreciation since it's such a short list), and it's pretty clear that The Ben BernaxBux-induced liquidity tsunami has rolled over pretty much the whole globe and driven any and every paper-denominated market to batshit levels of insanity.

I can't find the link right now, but pretty much everything that can be valued via fiat/marked-to-faith-based-toilet-paper is up 100% to 500% in the last 3 years despite the aggregate demand vortex (I'll post it when I find it).

Good luck getting out with your skin attached, Muppets. This won't be just another shearing of wool like 2008 or 2000, but a true Harvest.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 18:04 | 3324029 Relentless
Relentless's picture

economic tornado 

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:52 | 3323979 I am more equal...
I am more equal than others's picture

The toilet bowl swirl - the shit is being flushed.  Bernake stopped it up with printing but the plunger of reality will push, push that turd to the sewerage treatment plant.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 18:13 | 3324059 The Heart
The Heart's picture

"...push, push that turd to the sewerage treatment plant."

And the sheer force of the vacuum created by this implosion will suck the entire house down the drain with it.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 18:10 | 3324048 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Swirlograms, bitchez!

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 02:19 | 3325158 archon
archon's picture

It's the last swirl before it all goes down the drain.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:28 | 3323910 Rubicon
Rubicon's picture

Dynamic droop

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:31 | 3323917 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

BullSHEET!,

 

 

We are on the cusp of RECOVERY SUMMER 4!

 

 

 

 

 

Someone at ZH must be a raaaaaaaaaaaaycesssssssssssssssssssssss........

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:32 | 3323919 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Eventually it'll swirl on over to "contraction," pause for a while, then go straight off the chart — back and to the left like JFK's head.

The "oppression" area isn't included.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:35 | 3323926 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

But,             But...

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:36 | 3323928 machineh
machineh's picture

In the southern hemisphere, countries swirl counterclockwise.

Coriolis effect, bItCHeZ!

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:38 | 3323929 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

No chance of a recession because this time it really is different: We got free money as far as the eye can see.

How can GDP, measured in dollars, ever decrease in an economy where 85 billion dollars are being printed and injected into the economy EVERY MONTH?!

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:39 | 3323939 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

because GDP shrunk by 86 billion last month?

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 19:31 | 3324256 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

GDP is reported quarterly I believe.  The 4th Q 2012 that was initialy reported as -0.1 was revised to +0.1 on Feb 28th.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 07:21 | 3325290 Peterus
Peterus's picture

Well it can - if it is shrinking by more than 85 bln $ per month. Or if (when?) trust in this currency evaporates.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 10:37 | 3325814 busted by the b...
busted by the bailout's picture

OK, I should not have said "no" chance.  My point is really that is seems very, very, unlikely that a recession can occur with Ben's foot flat to the floor with ZIRP and QE. 

But if it does occur, all bets are off!  What will save us then?  Negative rates?  Even more money creation? Or would it be best to give up the game and let reality return to sort things out?  Don't count on that; they fear reality for it has become unacceptable to TPTB, imo.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:42 | 3323949 bobnoxy
bobnoxy's picture

Bullish! Isn't everything?

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:53 | 3323982 darteaus
darteaus's picture

The election is over, so "Mission Accomplished".

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 17:55 | 3323992 q99x2
q99x2's picture

F'k GS

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 19:16 | 3324221 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

This is the radar plot of the "Airship of State" in a flat spin. Turn off your portable electronic devices, return to your seats and brace for impact.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 19:27 | 3324254 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Typical treasure map:  go great distances and circle back close to where you started.

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 20:42 | 3324438 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

I see that same pattern as floaters circle around the toilet bowl.

 

Tue, 03/12/2013 - 21:11 | 3324509 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

That chart looks like my shit swirling down the toilet. (With dates and everything)

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 01:30 | 3325108 Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

Imam: Have you heard anything I've said?
Richard B. Riddick: You said it's all circling the drain, the whole universe. Right?
Imam: That's right.
Richard B. Riddick: Had to end sometime.

-from the Chronicles of Riddick

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 00:32 | 3328710 Jade_E.
Jade_E.'s picture

Interesting.  Compared to the swirlogram in November, they've significantly revised August through November's numbers to the plus side.  (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-15/goldmans-swirlogram-confirms-ec...)

Does their indicator really have a 4 month lag time?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!