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Adjusted February Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected As Actual Retail Sales Post First Decline In Three Years
In a news release that would have been blamed on delayed tax refunds and "the weather" if it was a miss, but confirms a stronger consumer if it beat, and denies everything Wal Mart was warning about regarding February sales, today's retail sales just came stronger than expected in both the headline print (+1.1%, on expectations of a +0.5% rise), the Ex-Autos (+1.0%, Exp. 0.5%), and the Ex-autos and gas (0.4%, Exp. 0.2%). All of this of course was on a seasonally-adjusted basis (more on this shortly). This was the biggest beat of expectations since October 2011, and the biggest monthly rise in five months. The number was driven by a 5.0% jump in gasoline station sales, a 1.8% increase in Miscellaneous store retailers, a 1.6% rise in non-store retailers and a 1.1% increase in the broad retail and food services category. Declines were noted in Furniture stores (-1.6%), Electronics and Appliance stores (-0.2%), and Sporting goods and music stores (-0.9%).
So on the surface all was good. The seasonally adjusted surface. because the unadjusted headline number in February actually posted the first sequential decline since 2010, as retail sales declined from $382.4 billion to $381.0 billion: this was the first sequential decline in retail sales in the month of February in three years. Yet somehow the decline actually translated into a growth of $4.4 billion on an adjusted basis, meaning the entire beat was, once more, purely in the calendar adjustment.
The chart below shows the historical pattern in January to February retail sales changes on an adjusted and unadjusted basis. 2013 was the first time since 2009 in which a drop in actual sequential sales resulted in a surge in adjusted sales.
Bottom line: when confused, apply Arima X 12 seasonal adjustments and goalseek.
Source: Census
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More great work put out by the Ministry of Truth.
Is there any rational, honest person who truly doesn't see the Main Stream Media fulfilling its role as a Proxy Propaganda Arm of the Financial-WallStreet-Bankster complex?
This really shouldn't be a surprise, given that 5 corporations own every single network, cable system, newspaper, magazine, radio station, etc. (aka "the media") in the United States.
Green Shoots, bitchez!
Hah! Even when "reporters" have decamped from on firm to another, they've told of management closely controlling the script...
How easily people forget when constantly beset upon every side with the Big Lie.
(shades of Bernays, eh... no, is Bernays...)
This is one of my favorite examples of the hiding-in-plain-sight total propaganda.
Why the fuck is there an adjusted version of everything when things are bad.
Baghdad Bob.....is that you?
According to LIESman, "this # is a game changer". I about shit myself laughing so hard.
I much preferred some CNBC blowhard telling me AAPL is forming a bottom(AAPL bottom?-not on Maria)
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=34230
otto, I think you're on to something there....
More like a couple of world class Guiness Book of Records Humongoliod Pumpkins sittin' side by side....
Why are we adjusting it when we can compare directly to the same periods from one year ago?
And if we use rolling 12 month averages, we will have a very clear directiion of the trends with no need for an adjustment ever.
if the weatherman seasonally adjusted today's temperature for me, would I feel warmer?
The goal here is to get people to think it's warmer even when it's not, because then everyone will feel better. Those who point out that it's cold are thought of as loonies.
People know things aren't getting better, but they hear so many stories of improvement that they begin to doubt themselves. Eventually they hold both ideas in their head but act on the one the State wants, precisely the kind of double-think Orwell predicted.
Dont be silly. The adjustment is the half lie that people wont catch. Leaving it with no adjustment would expose the lie so big that most people would catch on eventualy.
dissonance reduction ...
Some men see things as they are and ask why, TPTB see things as they are and say "Fuck it, just adjust the numbers."
There's more. Given that this number is *nominal* not real, any increase can theoretically be attributable to increase in prices - not in sold quantities. In fact, given record high gasoline prices and the huge increase in gas sales one can suspect that *real* retail sales are actually much lower.
Exactly. If a box of Froot Loops cost me $3 last February and then cost me $5 this February, the statistics show that I spent $2 more dollars year over year. Bullish except that I still only have 1 box of Froot Loops (with fewer loops and no fruit) to show for my "increased" spending.
didn't Dick's say overpriced Nike t-shirts and shoes were flying off the shelves?
Under Armor is a better deal...the new NIKE I think...
Dick's Sporting Goods said that their sales of camping, hunting and outdoor gear were severely and adversely impacted by some rainy days, some cool days, some warmer days, and some windy days, because people that tend to buy such goods don't like going out when it rains, is cool, is warm, or is windy.
Sounds like they're all member of the Free Shit Army who just like to sit around, mint juleps in hand on their front porches and...
Never-mind....
See, this kind of excuse shit just makes normal people like me start thinking dubious thoughts about many of my fellow man...
Cdad's proprietary BlowHorn [CNBC] Unwatchable Indicator is now +100%. Prolonged exposure to BlowHorn programming with the indicator at this level is certain to impair judgement, and the possibility of permanent brain damage rises considerably. The only known near term remedy for this situation is aggressive muting, and equally aggressive ZH article consumption. A more permanent remedy is market plunging....
as much as CNBC cheerleads this shitshow-the only ratings increase they would get is from a major selloff(2-3% range LOL)
hmmm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=dAkxR9T01pw
TruthInSunshine asked:
They're the LIBORal media.
Just like "Home sales Booming across the board." meme....
And BofA laying off real estate appraisers for lack of work
Booming my ass.
And mtg applications fell on the week. 76% were refi's?! Lotta home-buying not going on:
The total number of mortgage applications filed in the U.S. last week slipped 4.3% as interest rates increased, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
The refinance index fell 5.2% for the week ended March 8 from the previous week, according to MBA's weekly survey, which covers more than three-quarters of all U.S. residential-mortgage applications. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the purchasing index was down 2.5% from the prior week, MBA said.
Low interest rates have attracted new buyers and persuaded many homeowners to refinance their existing mortgages. However, tightened credit restrictions still bar many borrowers from filing loan applications.
The share of applications filed to refinance an existing mortgage was 76%, while adjustable-rate mortgages, or ARMS, made up 4.5% of total activity.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-mortgage-applications-off-43-last-week-mba-2013-03-13?dist=beforebell
There has never been a better time to buy a house.
Magic box told me so!
pods
Lest anyone forget, The 'It's Always The Best Time To Buy A House' National Association of Realtors did a mild revision to their 2007 through 2010 housing sales data recently, adjusting the number of home sales it previously reported downward by 3 million transactions.
Uh, yeeeeah, about those NAR reported sales...
Missed it by > < much.
Or for Major League fans, the first offering was just a bit outside.
pods
Chearleading big time to keep the mis-information game going.
In general the boost was from cars (lowered lending standards) and clothes (much colder weather, later) , in short. Nothing here that tells one of housing that was booming.
The weather isn't colder!!! People are buying warmer clothing because they can't afford to heat their homes!!!
Hi, im in the UK, ive just signed up after months of just reading, first question is
what was the point of lying about retail sales data if they didnt buy the futures at the same time creating a spike up?
were quite heavily down in UK on ftse, have been all morning, so are you going to ramp up in last hour of trade due to retails sales which were 7 hours earlier? lol
;-)
Welcome to Fight Club!
As to your question, I think that it can be explained in that all of these efforts are not orchestrated. There is a general "good initial, fix later" to economic data.
As to futures, IMHO that is not a concerted everyday effort. Maybe hold certain key levels, but they (NY FED) does not need Kevin to hit buy all the time. Remember there is a gajillion bucks in funny money chasing yield all over. All that liquidity is like water in a wide flat pan. You are carrying that pan from place to place and as it tilts, that water goes sloshing around all over. Each time you try to correct it, there is a chance you can do further damage and reinforce the waves. Imagine four people trying to carry that pan in a race.
That is where we are now.
pods
Welcome to ZH. You just received your first down vote.
Welcome to fight club,from an expat in Florida.
The Footsie is adjusted for cold/wet/warm weather.The Dow according to Ben's
itching haemorroids.
Makes as much sense as anything else in the 'markets' today.
I did my share for retail; I bought a woolen (blend) winter cap for $2.00...list price used to be $35.00.
You guys need to chipin...bunch of Deadbeats here.....
Animal spirits to the rescue. If you don't get the numbers you want in the real data ... why just change them. After all in MMT terms it's all about confidence.
What a crock of oderiferous material.
Maybe Walmart et al should start adjusting their numbers, too. Afterall ... it isn't really lying when the government has your back.
But the government will make them pay taxes on all of the "adjusted" revenue.
Nah ... companies don't pay taxes -- only suckers who can't afford to pay for lobbysts pay taxes.
"After all in MMT terms it's all about confidence."
Indeed, Angie. Indeed.
They're pulling out the desperate tricks to pull as many Muppets into the food processor as quickly as they can. The "Great Rotation" will come from the sound of the "liquify" button being pushed.
a little fibbin goes a long way.
Notice how they include gasoline in retail sales, but exclude it from inflation data.
Comical.
+98.9
220....221...hey whatever works!
I'll either be at the gym or the gun club.
Wanna beer?
-It's 7 o'clock in the morning!
Scotch?
Damned straight. Best comment of the thread.
Brilliant.
When it gets bad you've got to lie.
My tow truck operator friend reported an increase in people stranded out of gas on the LA freeways last week and more AA shares about being layed off in the meetings.
In SoCal we've driven off a bridge to nowhere.
Test tonight in college. Got to get it anyway you can around here.
I'm doing my damndest to not spend a penny on anything. Fuck TPTB. I will not participate. The more they fudge it all, the more I try to separate myself from the system. Screw you and your Orwellian manipulation. The real world sucks. It's only the financiers that are making out with Bernanke's free money. The rest of us are crushed under the real inflation.
Exactly! If I could have one thing happen it would be people get teir heads out of their asses and wake up to the 2 party scam in DC.
By the way this is disgusting. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gXOV_XWJck
Yeah baby...nothing like getting bent over at the pump to send "sales" skyrocketing. Love the year over year comps, too.
BUY STOCKS ON THE CATALYST THAT THE MARKET IS SOON TO BE OPEN!
Must.....At Least.....Not Open......Red...
It's all in how you conduct the 'sample.'
My guess is this time the sample was mainly concentrated on Neiman-Marcus and Ferrari dealerships.
You know, because what really matters is the """"core"""" which is now defined as ex-food-fuel-staples-diapers-insurance-tuition-medicine-healthcare-heat-warmth&love.
My Time....it is coming
sorry, it was me that made retail sales rise! I bought my 3 month supply of toilet paper, cigs, and beer early.
Unleash the algos!
And all the people will see on MSM is the adjusted numbers. Keep smiling, all is better. What a crock of shit.
Well at this point I'm just hoping 'all the people on the MSM' finally are convinced and throw all their money into the markets so they can unplug the algos and dump it already.
Sadly, we have about 1-2 more years of this shit before the bondacopolypse arrives.
Seems like US has embraced a new motto: "Just adjust it".
Hogwash...
(too soon?)
Is that some clever term for Chinese rivers of pig?
and yet stocks rallied! The Pollyanna Party continues!
Bernanke and Co. are ratcheting themselves into a corner now. The markets would have probably wanted lousy numbers to insure the punch bowl isn't confiscated before the party is over. The f/x markets and bonds yawned over the news. These oxymoronic markets are a joke. Bad news is good news>good news is bad news. What a house of mirrors...
Brilliant. Any idea of an estimated value for Zerohedge.com?
This is becoming an even bigger farce day after day. All fake.
My family loves to spend more on Gazoline so some FED funded speculator can rake in a $100 Million bonus. Saw where the government is going buy a BILLION DOLLARS worth of sugar and turn it into ethanol... Inflating our way to a better world...that most can't afford!
that would be ok as sugar contains alot more energy for ethanol than shitty corn-but they won't get rid of the corn ethanol subsidy. sugar industry had alot to do with boycott of Cuba-which could produce a huge quantity of high quality sugar ethanol if allowed to develop it.
I know something in the White House I'd like to adjust.
Mainstream response: but! but! but! but! but! but!
Judging by the number of "sell into good news" events that we have had lately, almost daily really, it would seem that the TBTF must have owned most of the market. I guess when your only buyer of size is the Federal Reserve you need to be patient with your dumping.
Hopium is now the national drug of choice for the sheeple; we need a 12 step program.
Cramer is advising caution. Thats scary.
Cramer advising anything is scary.
Are gun purchases powering retail sales? Sporting goods stores sales up up 17.5% in Feb. vs. a year ago.
Don't know how to interpret the data, because we can't verify the integrity of the data. I can confirm that mass media has either (1) bought into the booming economy meme (wild optimism or fatigue of pessimism) or (2) is pretending that is the case by virtue of some outside influence (tinfoil hat conspiracy idea).
I have revised my analogy of the US economy and the Fed influence. I first thought it was a full on depression, but that is just my own lens - others are doing fine. The current US situation is more like an engine that keeps periodically stalling, so the ride is bumpy, inefficient, and far from "normal". The Fed and massive liquidity is like stepping on the gas to keep it from stalling completely, and hoping it "warms up" and just gets going eventually. That's been the plan for basically 4-5 years now. Sadly, the engine needs an overhaul, and you can't do that unless you pull over and fix it, otherwise it will just stop working completely.
Actually...this is one of those times that the adjustments aren't completely hogwash (though they often are)...
There were 29 days in Feb of 2012. Look at the chart above for the reponse in in 2009 after the 2008 Leap Year, it is consistent. If it is BS atleast it is consistent BS.
Having said that...I don't see how retail sales did as well as they did given the softness in Goldman ICSC and Redbook weekly numbers coupled with the tax increase. Maybe there is a little more underlying strength than we have estimated. Looking at a chart of wholesale gasoline prices we can see some of the 'strength' was due to higher prices, but given the jobs numbers (which I know also have big adjustments) for the last three months, maybe we're seeing some growth.
FYI, I went into this year predicting GDP no greater than 1% and Q1 '13 as flat...but, maybe there is a little more going on than I thought.
Is that koolaid you have been drinking taste good?
Yeah...koolaid...look at the freaking chart or does the insanity get in the way of analysis. I also pointed out the reasons to doubt the size off the adjustment from theb ICSC and Redbook numbers.
My point was that there is a reason for a retail sales drop month over month in the unadjusted numbers just like there was in 2009 - the year after a leap year and the return to a 28 day sales months vs a 29 day sales month.
My own view is that we are at our second consecutive year of virtually ZERO real growth. But, if there is a shift in the data, even the govt massaged data you have to take it into your analysis. if you fail to question to your own hypothesis when data becomes available your no different the the MSM cheerleaders you despise.
The only growth is in the length of Pinoccio's nose.
I wish there was growth. I produce and sell products, but can tell you for FACT that true sales are below 2009. I talk to buyers at evry major retailer and get sales reports from Walmart, Dick's, Target, and Best Buy.
Buyers watch CNBC and wonder where the reported sales came from. They say, "Well I didn't buy the product that sold."
Macy's is way down, JC Penney is scraping the bottom, Best Buy is moving cell phones at no profit and nothing else, Walmart has no working capital but can probably float a trilion dollars worth of debt.
There has never been a wider gap between reality and reported fantasy. The media is all in wth Obama and Bernanke in supporting the wealth of the .1% at all cost.
There is no trickle down because the wealth never required anything other than a Fed printing press to produce.
Whomever is down arrowing every post, please change your home page to MSNBC.
And how much does the hidden inflation account for the rise?
Big fukking deal and big fukking surprise. A few more sheep walk into the credit trap. Maybe.
Japan will soon blow up. Surprise!! CNBS isn't covering it.
One Japanese finance minister killed himself over being impossible to fix.
Rather than lose face..you will see many more Japanese do this....to keep the honor of their family....the canary in the coal mine is when 20 a week are offing themselves I think
Americans for the most part are stupid here is the proof. I tried to snope it I cannot believe it is true.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gXOV_XWJck
Link spam your shit elsewhere.
Ex-inflation...sales down 1%
If anyone thinks gas prices are going down like some of the MSM village idiots are claiming, think again.
16:30 USD API Weekly Crude Stock -1.38M 2.34M 5.60M
16:30 USD API Weekly Gasoline Stock -3.12M -1.16M -0.91M
I wish I could be there to call every single commentator that says "retail sales rose" a fucking liar right to thier face. They know they are lying, but their job is to report the lie as fact and that is what they are going to do.
They can't defend the lie. The real data is readily available and anyone can get it.
236k jobs, lie
Retail sales increase, lie
Cuts in government spending, bullshit
Tax increase on the wealthy, yeah right
It's people seeing inflation coming and spending their fiat toilet paper before it's just toilet paper.
I think it is all the sales of juicers and health club memberships in NYC in a groundswell of support for Bloomberg's anti-obesity crusade.
Dear IRS - attached us my seasonally adjusted income tax return - just ignore those non-seasonally adjusted W-2 forms.
This year they turned negative real results into positive. Note that in 2008 they turned positive real results into negative. It makes you wonder if seasonal adjustments include consideration of which political party is in the White House? Or which direction Wall Street wants to move the market? Then again, maybe Bush was just unlucky in 2008...