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Has the European Spring Started?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Lucas Jackson,

Has the European Spring Started?

 

“So it is the human condition that to wish for the greatness of one's fatherland is to wish evil to one's neighbors. The citizen of the universe would be the man who wishes his country never to be either greater or smaller, richer or poorer.”

- Voltaire

 

With Angela Merkel and her vassal at the ECB Mario Draghi seemingly in control of markets on the European continent, there is a temptation to pull a George W. Bush and unfurl the “Mission Accomplished” banner.  However, that was a PR blunder for Bush the Younger and it would a be blunder for Merghi as well.

There are a couple of items that have hit the tape recently that seem to indicate the ground upon which the Euro is based is shaking.  The most recent was out of Germany where according to a Reuters article, “One in four Germans would be ready to vote in September's federal election for a party that wants to quit the euro, according to an opinion poll published on Monday that highlights German unease over the costs of the euro zone crisis.”  Link here.

Germany’s population is around 80mm people and right now about 20mm of those would actively vote against the Euro.  As the article highlights, this number is even more significant because there is a national taboo in Germany against nationalistic tendencies, a hangover from the nationalism of WWII.  Despite this taboo, a major portion of the country is actively wishing for the return of the Deutsche Mark.  One wonders how much higher the number would be absent the taboo on nationalism?

Grillo the Clown?

The Economist ran an article on the Italian elections recently entitled, “Send in the Clowns” where they attempt to paint Silvio Berlusconi and rising political star Beppe Grillo as nothing more than clowns, not to be taken seriously unless it is to discuss how they threaten the status quo.  As it regards Berlusconi, Mr. Bunga Bunga deserves all the negative press he gets.  At this point in his life, he is simply trying to keep getting elected to national office in order to maintain amnesty from prosecution and stay out of jail.  As a billionaire in Italy, it seems to me that his chances of ever seeing the inside of a jail cell are quite low.

But what about Grillo?  In his former life he was a clown, a real life entertaining clown.  So I suppose I am meant to assume that means he knows nothing about the big picture of global or even European politics or economics?  He is usually described as a quaint Italian anachronism with no real chance of accomplishing anything.  If you read about him in the major non-Italian media at least, that is how he is portrayed.

Truthfully, I had never listened to a word Mr. Grillo said.  But it’s hard to comment knowledgably about someone when all you’ve done is read what the major non-Italian news publications have said about them.  So I took the time to watch the short clip (major props to Mike Krieger and his Liberty Blitzkrieg Blog for highlighting this) below to gain a better understanding of why 25% of the Italian electorate voted for him.  For any of you who haven’t seen or heard Mr. Grillo speak, I recommend you watch the short five minute clip below:

What emerged in my mind after watching this clip was a few thoughts:

 

1.       Grillo is hardly a clown.  He is smart, well-read and has a thorough understanding of the how the current status quo works.

2.       He is an extremely good public speaker.  He is engaging, lively and does an amazing job of connecting with his audience.  No wonder he crushed the technocrat Mario Monti in the polls!  Watch how he works this sizeable audience like a rock star.  Very few politicians of any country can do this – especially without a teleprompter!

3.       He speaks truth to power and could very well be a force to be reckoned with in Italian politics for many years going forward.  Dismiss him as a clown at your own risk...

 

The Wave is Building

Perhaps you believe Draghi’s open-ended commitment to do, “...whatever it takes,” to bail out Europe’s broken banking system will be enough to stabilize things for good.  Could be.

On the other hand, the Merghi doctrine of open-ended support depends upon the sovereigns of Europe voting more or less along traditional lines.  I feel pretty confident saying this will not happen.  Over 25% of the people in two of Europe’s largest, best educated, richest, most populous countries are already saying they reject the status quo.  More tellingly, the number of people sharing this view has been growing rapidly in recent years, not shrinking.

With Italy the number 4 holder of gold in the world with over 2.4 tonnes and Germany the number 2 with over 3.4 tonnes, the shifting of the political winds will have major effects on the world’s economic and banking systems.

Keep your eyes on the changing sentiment of European politics.  What is certain today will be uncertain tomorrow.  Massive youth unemployment ensures the next generation of voters do not see eye-to-eye with the previous.  The old politicians just want to avoid change while the new politicians want nothing but.  The wheels are in motion for major transition and upheaval on the old continent.  Given the nature of the political structured in Europe, it’s unlikely the European Spring will take on the same dynamic as the Arab Spring, but massive change is afoot nonetheless.

And even though the man leading the charge in Italy is a former entertainer, one would be mistaken to dismiss the man as a simple clown.  Very mistaken.

 


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Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment observer007
observer007's picture

 

This European Video explains it all: 

Fraud. Why the great recession

 

docu about banks and goldman sachs.

Free markets are not to be blamed for the Great Recession. On the contrary, its origins rest upon the deep government and central bank intervention in the economy. Through fraudulent mechanisms, this causes recurrent boom and bust cycles: bad policies create phases of irrational exuberance, which are then followed by economic recessions, a result that every citizen ends up suffering from.

http://homment.com/Fraud-recession

 

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

tonnes of gold? the article's author means kilotonnes, or better, thousands of tons

Draghi a vassal of Merkel? where does this come from? another "projection" of US affairs on europe?

 

>>> the fundamental question that everybody should be asking is this: if in Italy one blog can move one quarter of the electorate towards an anti-corruption campaign, why isn't this possible everywhere? <<<

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:45 | Link to Comment MiguelitoRaton
MiguelitoRaton's picture

Beppo Grillo is a combination of John Stewart (satirist) and Peter Schiff (understanding of banking system). He is a force to be reckoned with. 

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 14:06 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Occam's razor of euro skepticism; he is badly placed when it comes to his own beard.

That razor has two edges and one of them is that exit costs could be more than belt tightening.

What eurozone needs like all countries is BANK NATIONALISATION and then cleaning those stables from top to bottom.

Avanti ! Then we talk with all the facts on the floor like exposed cadavers.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Svendblaaskaeg
Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"This European Video explains it all"

Time well spend - Thank You Sir!

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Writing down bum mortgages will only occur as a harbinger to inflation descending from the great shadow above.  "We wrote down your blown up mortgage by $100,000, but guess what, in 8 months that basket of groceries will cost $1,000."  Those addicted to debt will become more so.  Those addicted to equity will know this trap when they see it.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Inflation?  Do you mean the increase in prices that is caused by evil speculators, not by benevolent bankers and helpful governments?

...will know this trap when they see it.

I'm not so sure.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:31 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Does your dog bite?
That's not my dog....

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Of course, the greedy middle-men and evil speculators.

Yes, most people believe that debt is wealth and cash is value.  There are few who don't, and they will profit as they did before.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:38 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I submit that the problem was caused by a lack of Checks & Balances in the system (these having been systematically eroded and removed in the 1980-2000 era), which opened the door for all "opportunists" -- good or bad.

With a level playing field and decent rules of the game in place and actually enforced, the housing bubble and all debt-money bubbles since then could have been avoided.

IMHO, the fair and sound solution is for Bad Debtors (opportunists who could not afford the houses) and Bad Creditors (banks who knowingly partook in the CDS game) both suffer equally.  The banks take the fiat/imaginary loss on the fiat/imaginary debt:  Boo hoo Kitty... No FRB fiat gain or exec bonuses for you!  The bad debtors have to suffer also, insofar they have to refinance the debt at some TBD value that is above market price but below purchase price. 

That way, both parties get punished, but stay alive.  And the rest of "responsible" mortgage debtors feel justified in their debt, and that justice was done.  But, as long as the banks & Fed run the politicians, fat chance of any fair & equitable solution being reached. 

The President could use his executive authority (IEEA?), but ours lacks the brains and balls to do this; there's no way his cast of economic & financial advisers will ever allow him to think -- much less act -- in disfavor of GS, JPM, etc.  Love him or hate him -- it matters naught -- Obama is their 'bitch'.  Sad to say.  And he's not gonna "pull a JFK" (the US Treasury issuing silver coins)... his health & safety considerations aside, pulling a JFK would not cover the overblown fiat-debt balloon, w/o revaluing PM to several multiplies of present value.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

Fuck the Status Quo, the Spring will come naturally when no one can no longer afford anything anymore.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment achmachat
achmachat's picture

Every time I go and buy rice, it's 0,1€ more expensive per kilo and still nobody seems to notice!!

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:21 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Yeah, the Arab Spring was a celebration of military dictatorship and high food costs.  The pinatas self-immolated.  A great time was had by all, including the gang-rapists.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:46 | Link to Comment dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

you  are shopping inthe wrong places.  go to the chinese markets because at least here 40lb bags are as cheap as ever.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:59 | Link to Comment ParkAveFlasher
ParkAveFlasher's picture

Is it pork-flavored?

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:46 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"...the Spring will come naturally when..."

the proverbial "Winter of our discontent" has run its full course.  What does the Groundhog say?  6 more years of fiscal Winter, or an early Spring?  For me, there isn't a shadow of a doubt (pun intended), that we'll have 6 more years of Winter, because I will not let hope dash my knowledge of their Nature and Power.  To me, "hope" is not an actionable strategy.    :-(   [sob, sob]

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

don't count your gold until you get it out of the clutches of JP Morgan

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:44 | Link to Comment max2205
max2205's picture

let them eat pizzels

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:21 | Link to Comment medium giraffe
medium giraffe's picture

Grillo might spark the EuroSpring, but can he make the trains run on time?

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment John Bull
John Bull's picture

Tyler,

 

That is about 2400 and 3400 ton of gold for both countries...

 

JB

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

it's not Tyler, it's Lucas Jackson. I trust the Tylers to know very well the difference between 1 ton and 1'000 tons of gold

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment tawse57
tawse57's picture

“Mission Accomplished”?

Europeans would not be so crass. They are not Americans for goodness sake.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment uno
uno's picture

Italy the number 4 holder of gold in the world with over 2.4 tonnes and Germany the number 2 with over 3.4 tonnes

US has the most virtural gold in the universe

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 22:28 | Link to Comment Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

gold vaporware

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:17 | Link to Comment unplugged
unplugged's picture

In other news, about 75% of the people in two of Europe’s largest, best educated, richest, most populous countries SUPPORT the status quo.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Joe A
Joe A's picture

They are just ignorant.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 14:34 | Link to Comment Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

I believe this. Many would be nothing without the status quo. Herd mentality and all that.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

The citizen of the universe would be the man who wishes his country never to be either greater or smaller, richer or poorer.

Sounds like a terrrrrrrist to me.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Scro
Scro's picture

With Italy the number 4 holder of gold in the world with over 2.4 tonnes and Germany the number 2 with over 3.4 tonnes, the shifting of the political winds will have major effects on the world’s economic and banking systems.

Somebody needs to check their facts.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:13 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

The Guest Poster left off the word thousand for both those numbers.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment madcows
madcows's picture

Did the Brotherhood of Crazy Muslims take over Europa?

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:37 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Vatican:  Pappa Grillo!

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

They're too pussy to revolt. So are Americans. Your revolt lies here in the comment pages of the online intelligentsia.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 12:44 | Link to Comment PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

you are fully right: angela and mario (merghi) are the new/old dream team, at least since she "killed" weidmann the last year, giving carte blanche to MD. election year, steinbrück completely lost, what can/could go wrong? Italy? forget about it, who cares, they will fix it. as long ECB & FED are moving ahead in sinchronicity, business as usual, which means: algos @ work, socialist politics all over the place, financial and fiscal repression.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:04 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

The Fed (in public):  "We're doing everything we can for the Euro.  We come not to bury it, but to (p)raise it."

The Fed (in secret):  "The Euro is dead.  Long live the dollar, long live the Fed!  We come not to (p)raise the Euro, but to bury it."

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:16 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

The upcoming US-EU trade negociations and the use of Canada-Eu negociations currently occurring as trojan horse for USA; aka thanks to its existing Alena links to USa; which could allow the USA to export via Canada its OGMs to EU !

As nobody is concentrating on the fine print being negotiated currently by HYPERLIBERAL EU trade commissioner Karel de Gucht, an ardent supporter of the Multinational clique, to cede to Canada concessions; precisely those which will be strongly contested by recalcitrant members of EU parliament prior to the USA trade Blitzkrieg. 

But if the Canada precedence is created behind the curtain, where nobody pays attention, it'll make it so easy for USA to say : Hey game over! 

The devil is always niched in the detail ! 

Libre-échange : et si les Etats-Unis cachaient le Canada ? | Chez Corinne Lepage | Rue89 Les blogs

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:20 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Bring back the bird face masks.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:33 | Link to Comment DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

Oo a whopping 25%. Irrelevant. This means 75% support the status quo. 75%!!!! Long live the Euro, Long live the political elites, Long live European integration. 75%!!!! This is a massive victory for Europe, for Bryssels, for European federalism and for the European people.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:36 | Link to Comment MrNude
MrNude's picture

>''This means 75% support the status quo.''

 

Yes until the money runs out.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:38 | Link to Comment DeliciousSteak
DeliciousSteak's picture

Well yeah that's the whole point. Why oppose something that brings bread to your table. If it goes down it goes down anyway, doesn't matter what they do at this point. Now is the time to see how deep the rabbit hole goes, and the peoples of Europe understand this.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:37 | Link to Comment Nels
Nels's picture

Grillo is a clown the same was George Carlin was a clown.  The Danes have it right, "Take jokes only as jokes and serious things only seriously, and you have them both wrong."

Comedians might be making a serious point with their humor, clowns never are seen that way.  Thus TPTB describe Grillo as a clown rather than a comedian.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:52 | Link to Comment MrNude
MrNude's picture

“The truth is always an insult or a joke, lies are generally tastier. We love them. The nature of lies is to please. Truth has no concern for anyones comfort"

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 14:01 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

It's 'Mind over matter':  Both sides are using tools of communication & human perception to frame their argument, and are not afraid to 'cast' their opponent into a different role that they cast themselves.  All else is semantics, to confuse and convince the feeble-minded consumers of their message.

Brillo(pad)-Grillo seeks to "out the truth" to the increasingly informed and fed-up masses, whereas TPTB seek to "spin the truth" -- as they always have and always will.  We'll see if 'Brillo' can keep 'rubbing' TPTB the wrong way and help bring about an Italian Spring, or if he'll get rubbed out while it's still Winter. 

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment JOYFUL
JOYFUL's picture

Given the nature of the political structured in Europe, it’s unlikely the European Spring will take on the same dynamic as the Arab Spring, but massive change is afoot nonetheless.

 

A "European Spring," modelled upon or derivative to an "Arab Spring" has star status as a soundbite, but it bites off more than it can shew as a reasonable concept. Why? In the light of what we already know about the "Arab Spring" phenomena...itself a media meme and soundbite, designed from the beginning to mislead...and cover the tracks of the usual propagandist suspects whose great mission in the East is exactly the same as that in the West...to corral sovereign nations into the umbrella groups which the bankster cartel needs to have operational for their new style Jesuitical plantatiions to work efficiently.

Post WW2 we had the 'culture wars' of the OSS\NSA\CIA McCloy-Dulles transition period...when the phoney ColdWar commanded the atttentions and budgets of western society, and the insertion of agents of influence into the emergent political and culture elites of Western European countries gave them a trial run for the set up of pseudo-reality...by the time of the Shah\Iran putsch, and postSuez Sionist control of the ME, the path was clear for a whole wave of false front 'revolutions' and remakes of reality....Hollowwood style. Arab Springs turned out to be no more than the 'coming out of the closet' of the ZATOIST agents of influence calling themselves Muslim Brothers...just like pedophilic white merikan sionists can get away with calling themselves "Christians" - these total inversions of the real will keep cropping up until either everybody gets rounded up and caged in the Sionazi "Eurozones & "New Caliphates" of their choice\geographical location....OR

these punk Sionazis and the bankster\political\judical tools get rounded up and sent to reform school...preferably somewhere like MARS! Since none of the current crop of Euromerikan youth really has the balls to make a move on the oppressors operating the disinformation orchestra, it's time to cut to the chase, and bring in the Gurkhas...a week or two of close in knife work and we won't have to worry about any more phony springs...just move right along to an Endless Summer!

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 13:56 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

To maintain the suppoprt of the 75%....the CBs just have to buy bonds (MBS) to keeop interest rates down and give the banks (or surreptiously to hedge funds) liquidity to park in equities.

Keep the stock market up and interest rates low...and the vulgar status quotients will be maintained. When it does go wrong however...... there will be no Main Stream Media.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 14:20 | Link to Comment Father Lucifer
Father Lucifer's picture

 

 

Clown, entertainer or GOVERNATOR it's a California tradition.

Wed, 03/13/2013 - 14:27 | Link to Comment Die Weiße Rose
Die Weiße Rose's picture

"unabashed champagne Socialism"  

seems to have become a world-wide sociopathic - economic problem ever since Napoleon

rose through the corrupt bureaucratic ranks of the bloody "French Revolution" -

only to crown himself the new "omni-potent holy roman Emperor"

after raping and pillaging the whole of Europe to ruin -

in a show of more "unabashed champagne Socialism" ....

Valérie Trierweiler 'succumbs to Marie-Antoinette syndrome of life of luxury' Valérie Trierweiler has become the latest French first lady to succumb to the Marie-Antoinette syndrome of frivolity and luxury as France toils, a leading magazine has claimed.

President François Hollande's 47-year old partner was slammed for eschewing her Left-wing principles in favour of unabashed champagne Socialism despite the threat of "thousands of job losses in the coming weeks" in companies ranging from Renault to Air France. VSD, the weekly magazine, trained its ire on the 47-year-old divorcee's decision to attend the haute couture shows of Paris fashion week.

It described photos of the first lady beaming alongside France's richest man Bernard Arnault at the Dior catwalk show as a "political fault"."While thousands of French are fighting to avoid redundancy … (she) attended the fashion shows," it wrote. "Valérie Trierweiler, who often claims to be 'Socialist to her soul' … ultimately prefers supporting the one industry that has no particular need of her help – the luxury fashion world.

By , Paris

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/france/9855477/Valerie-...

 

Disapproval Has Roots in Economy

Meanwhile, Hollande is struggling to find convicing counterarguments as unemployment has risen to 11 percent,

  economic data looks more dismal by the week, industrial output is taking a nosedive and a recovery is nowhere to be seen. As long as the economy doesn't improve, no trip to connect with the people will be able to boost Hollande's popularity. http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/popularity-of-french-presiden... seems like nothing much ever really changes. same as it ever was. wr;)
Thu, 03/14/2013 - 03:27 | Link to Comment Ar-Pharazôn
Ar-Pharazôn's picture

is this article serious? really????

 

Germany’s population is around 80mm people and right now about 20mm of those would actively vote against the Euro

 

so Germany now has 80 milions people that can vote? MO.

 

not 20 milions against the Euro BUT 1/4 of the voters! and the voters are not 80 milions

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