• Steve H. Hanke
    05/04/2016 - 08:00
    Authored by Steve H. Hanke of The Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. A few weeks ago, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) sprang a surprise. It announced that a...

10-In-A-Row For Dow As VIX Plunges To New Cycle Low

Tyler Durden's picture




 

If it's a day of the week ending in 'y' then sure enough the Dow is green - 10 days in a row - best run since Nov 1996. The cash S&P's all-time high remains a day or two away at 1576.1 but today's late-day ubiquitous idiocy (first via VIX and then via HYG) took it within a point of the all-time closing high of 1565.15. Volume - take a guess! Trannies outperformed as 4 different stocks were short-squeezed this time to drive half the index's performance (CNW, R, KSU, and UNP). VIX daggered lower to new cycle lows ending at 11.05% at its lows. Away from that tom-foolery, stocks were 'supported' by USD weakness as GBP ramped higher on pre-budget excitement and EUR just because why not; Treasury yields ended the day near the lows of the week - entirely in keeping with the highs of the week in stocks... USD weakness helped WTI rise on the day - now best performer on the week among the commodities with Silver lagging on the week (while gold limps higher). Just another day in dystopia... ahead of the CCAR Part 2.

 

Trannies won but the S&P made a decent run at it into the close before dumping back towards VWAP...

 

Treasury Yields at the lows of the week, stocks at the highs and gold flip-flopping between the two...

 

S&P 500 futures remain in trend as volume drips away...

 

There was one thing that was different today... shorts worked.. for the first day in a while, the Russell 3000's 'Most Shorted' index sold off AND the Russell 3000 rallied... is the squeeze starting to end?

 

 

and while VIX is at cycle lows - it is not 'cheap' per se relative to realized vol which has the hand of bernanke (or Henry) wrapped around it as we inch higher. Implied and Realized Vol have followed a 'typical' pattern of dropping together, anxiety kicking in and protection bid, a scramble back as the rally proceeds and now the real test as we typically see protection bid once again...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

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Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:10 | 3330558 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

i was just listening to the daily roundtable  on cnbc after the closing bell, and this has got to be one of the more nauseating ones i have yet witnessed.

 

these ppl are actually saying the market has been moving on great fundementals, we r only going higher from here, and any sell off would be bought so we wont have a sell off.

 

i really want to punch someone.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:14 | 3330567 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

BUY A HOME NOW OR BE PRICED OUT FOREVER

It's fucking ludicrious. Earlier today on Marketwatch, the front page story was about stocks being priced "modestly". I mean FFS.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:21 | 3330591 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

This truly should scare the shit out of you. What is so bad out there that they are in full bore assault mode for.......hmmmmm

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:56 | 3330702 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Exactly how I see it...they're so scared they won't even allow 1 flat/down day anymore? 

People say this just goes on forever, I'm leaning more towards 'counting down the hours left' at this point. I mean, 1%^ daily? DAILY??

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:59 | 3330715 James_Cole
James_Cole's picture

GBP ramped higher on pre-budget excitement and EUR just because why not

Lol

There was one thing that was different today... shorts worked.. for the first day in a while, the Russell 3000's 'Most Shorted' index sold off AND the Russell 3000 rallied... is the squeeze starting to end?

Anyone dare to take that bet?

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:02 | 3330896 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

All you morons out there, still trying to short this juggernaut  ... Nanananana Give up you fools. Here comes the Economic Boom. LOL

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:37 | 3331030 CH1
CH1's picture

I've become accustomed to the stench of insanity in the afternoon.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 19:38 | 3331143 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

Indeed.

http://spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro

No fear, eh?

http://www.secondkoreanwar.com

Note that today the DJ Composite capped the 5000 mark:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EDJA

It tapped the 1000 mark right before the 1987 stock market crash.

http://thespiritoftruth.blogspot.com/2011/01/thousand-mark-reversals-in-...

 

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:41 | 3331047 akak
akak's picture

"Stock prices have reached a permanently high plateau."

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:02 | 3330897 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

All you morons out there, still trying to short this juggernaut  ... Nanananana Give up you fools. Here comes the Economic Boom. LOL

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 06:49 | 3331868 overmedicatedun...
overmedicatedundersexed's picture

stopped out short position..am on the sidelines now..was a small position, so not hurting, but maybe since I threw in the towel this is the TOP..can't go long, can't go short..can't go bonds..a very weird markets have we.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:08 | 3330935 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

Exactly. Short ANYTHING means you've been slaughtered. And as the police are fond of pointing out "you never break one law." in others words "he wasn't just going 40 mph over the speed limit." in this case "you don't just Big Short the banks." you're short the Government as well...meaning treasuries of course. To say this has been the "biggest squeeze in history" would be an understatement. "they're playing a game of which I am unfamiliar with" as Bobby Jones famously said. Since when you are long the most you can lose is what you put in (no conspiracy there folks...just truth) whereas "you can lose infinity compounded" when shorting you indeed play that game "at great personal risk." so go ahead..."start by saying you're smarter than everyone else."

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:18 | 3330574 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I watched that too.

Those fund managers and stock junkies talking their book are barf inspiring, and punchable.

At least it ended with Santelli saying that an "Arch Duke Fredinand moment" could be just around the corner, and the attractive young Woman commentator calling Ben Bernanke "Mighty Mouse".

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 17:37 | 3330815 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture
Friday, March 15, 2013 Monday, March 18, 2013 Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases 12/31/2017 - 11/30/2018 $4.75 - $5.75 billion

In the event anyone wants to know whether the market will be up or down tomorrow.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:16 | 3330575 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I get the same way.  Positive euphoric MSM spew at major tops.  Always seems to occur this way.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:18 | 3330585 adr
adr's picture

My new business will be to make punching clowns of all the CNBS anchors. I'm thinking the Jim Cramer model will be the hottest seller. The only drawback would be the license fees I'd have to pay for the likeness rights.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:20 | 3330588 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

how about paper targets?

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 17:15 | 3330754 Leto II
Leto II's picture

to shoot at, or shit on?

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:27 | 3330593 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Please.... Easy on the clown bashing. I am a clown

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:25 | 3330610 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Spewing Bear Stearns is an all time buy

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:29 | 3330624 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Better yet....open a shooting range with pictures of these clowns on the paper targets.  You will make a fotune.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 17:14 | 3330750 spiral galaxy
spiral galaxy's picture

Likeness rights?! Just substitute the ass of the animal that has the closest resemblance!  Liesman and a pig's butt seem to fit ....as does the squeal but you can save the sound effects for your premium mode.  Ross-Sorkin and a poodle butt? Mmmm.  Seriously, you may be on to something here with your punching clowns.  By why focus on CNBC when you have the whole universe of TV and cable bullshit artists. :-)

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:19 | 3330586 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I wish a trannie(Michelle Ca-Ca?) would outperform on Maria B

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:12 | 3330560 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

...a 10-15% increase over a 3 month period, no noteworthy reversals or corrections, and a 10-day continuous upwards move.

Ridiculous. This is supposed to be a free market? Is anyone actually stupid enough to buy this?

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:13 | 3330561 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

If this doesn't worry you, it should.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:13 | 3330564 CClarity
CClarity's picture

Blah blah blah  and the pope is still Catholic.  

Until the Fed stops its disruption and gasoline, step away from the madness of equities and bonds.  You're gambling, not investing.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:06 | 3330917 rajat_bhatia
rajat_bhatia's picture

Exactly. Lol. I escaped this madness a year ago. 

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:13 | 3330565 adr
adr's picture

mmm straight diagonal lines. I once tried to be creative by coloring outside the lines, but the teacher slapped my hand and said the lines were there for a reason.

Don't try to trade outside the trendline. Bernanke's got a ruler spiked with nails waiting to swing in your direction.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:14 | 3330566 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

I think we are seeing the Superior Mother of all bubbles.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:24 | 3330577 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

... on that vein, I'd say it's the bond bubble spilling into equities.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:23 | 3330594 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

I doubt the bubble is in stocks, the public are not really involved in this market to any degree. Cab drivers are not telling you how great stocks are. The Dow in on around 13 times. Plus there is enormous skepticsim of the rally. None of these would be true in a bubble, in fact quite the opposite. The rally is over extended but it's not a bubble. In fact plenty of investors are still overweight bonds, which is probably where the real bubble is.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:27 | 3330620 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Of course its not a bubble....a bubble implies everyone is involved.  This is just primary dealers and shady hedge funds sanctioned by the banks swwapping financial instruments amongst each other at ever increasing $ values.

 

So, it is worse than a bubble....it is a mirage created by unlimited credit from our lovely central banks (and their elected and paid-for officials).  They are just hoping it causes another bubble.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:44 | 3330671 machineh
machineh's picture

Maybe it's the first megarich, TBTF bubble.

If the one-percenters own 80 percent of the wealth, why shouldn't they sponsor their own exclusive bubble?

Cab drivers and shoeshine boys' nickels are invisible compared to Ben Shalom's $85 billion a month. The bubble doesn't need their loose change.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 17:45 | 3330845 Archetype
Archetype's picture

Well, sooner or later people cant afford to buy anything from the companies the 1% owns. Does it really matter then how much money they throw between each other?

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:14 | 3330568 mdtrader
mdtrader's picture

Dow 15,000 before the end of the month!

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:22 | 3330600 adr
adr's picture

Apple was going up $100 a month tis time last year on a hopium binge. Why shouldn't the Dow add 1000 points a month on the same?

Maybe Bernanke has a massive coronary and drops dead. The stock market has it's Steve Jobs moment and collapses 50%.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:27 | 3330617 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

You kidding...if Bernanke dies, Yellen is in...and it's only Ben's moderation and prudence holding us back from "bubble" territory.  Give Janet or Krugers the reins and then, POW, right to the moon!!!

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:30 | 3330625 machineh
machineh's picture

You got it, bro ... YELLEN AIN'T SELLIN' ... and neither should you.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:46 | 3331064 akak
akak's picture

Is Yellin jellin'?

There's no tellin' how much she's jellin'!

Yellin's jellin' like a felon!

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:28 | 3330622 machineh
machineh's picture

If Bernanke is smart, he's programmed the Fed Funds computer to 'ZIRP forever,' with or without him.

Bernanke is leaving next January, by the way.

Watch the S&P hit 2000 on rumors that the Bernank will be replaced by ... KURGMAN.

Hey ... Nobel prize winnahs gotta stick together.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 17:09 | 3330735 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

If that happens, you'll know that the "Fall Guy" is in place. Otherwise, he is simply too risky for them (way too many obvious negatives to detract from the role of "serious monetary manager").

One thing is for sure, it'll be the greatest clown-show on Earth!

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 18:37 | 3331029 riphowardkatz
Thu, 03/14/2013 - 17:02 | 3330724 Nid
Nid's picture

More like 15,300 at this rate....party on...

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:17 | 3330580 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It has been so long since I shorted any stock I am going to need a refresher course on how to short. But of course, the whole fucking phony market will blow up so fast I will miss the first 20% down. 

People believe this market is real?

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 21:21 | 3331399 kujo
kujo's picture

Don't fight the Fed, the Dow has been positive every day since the sequestration kicked in. This is effen absurd.  

 

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:18 | 3330581 yogibear
yogibear's picture

Get used to it.

Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau!

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:24 | 3330598 Ham-bone
Ham-bone's picture

Correction - Permanently higher incline.

BTW - anybody know what the longest win streak is for the Dow? 

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:35 | 3330642 machineh
machineh's picture

'The record is 13 up days in a row, which came in 1987.'

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2013/03/14/dows-winning-streak-has-that-...

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:43 | 3330667 Key-Rick
Key-Rick's picture

Ah, yes, I remember 1987 well.  As a young 22 year old college grad, I started my first job, receiving my series 7 license in September.  Six weeks later, sayonarra, market.  It was a good time to be young and stupid.

Thu, 03/14/2013 - 16:53 | 3330694 machineh
machineh's picture

The Dow's record 13-day run began on 2 Jan 1987 and continued through 20 Jan 1987.

Up 11% in 13 trading days.

That was so far back in the mists of history that Paul Volcker was still Fed chairman.

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