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What Does China Know (Again) That The Rest Of The World Doesn't?
Yesterday we noted the fact that China's Shanghai Composite was now red for 2013 as inflationary fears once again raise the odd specter of a central bank suggesting less than orgasmic expansion of its free money. While the 'Pisani's of the world see the relative outperformance as some 'rotation' in the smart money, we humbly suggest he take a trip down memory lane and note how rapidly the so-called 'smart money' reverted to China's lead in the last few years as the lack of an inflation shock absorber led the PBoC to pull back and implicitly drag on the world's equity market-based linearly-extrapolated economic growth hopes. As a reminder, it's never different this time.
China's Shanghai Composite vs the S&P 500... Deja Deja Vu
And while we won't be seeing inflation showing up in any government data in the US, the inflation genie is starting to creep out of its bottle here too (how are those margin expansion expectations going to cope?)
Chart: Bloomberg
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that looks like the a "river of dead pigs" formation
Me Chinese, me play joke. Me put dead pigs in the fucking river.
Until uncle ben stops printing there will be no plunge. So stop the obvious.
Look guys, the technicals on the four-year chart of the S&P 500 are some of the best I've seen in years. This chart is a screaming buy. No matter how many doomer articles claim that we are due for a correction, the fact remains that the chart continues to make new highs. Pay attention shorts - THIS IS TELLING YOU SOMETHING.
Just what are the technicals telling my shorts?
The Bernanke Bank has the tools to prevent a recurrence of that nasty capitalist market action.
deja vu all over again!
Im so glad i finally have my ZH account, so i can vote down milliondollarbonus and his stupid comments
Has China finally got a domesticated economy???
metal/sarc..? no?
I joined so I could vote him up.
Hey Million$FuckTard - I'm short both US Steel and Redhat and both are deeply profitable. So you & your info tell me nothing.
When I clicked MDBoner's red arrow the number when up by two. That's fun. Need to create new personas to do that again and again.
+1 :D lol!
now i know it's time to short.
Once people lose con-fidence in the con Uncle Ben can press the zero button on his FED keyboard as many times as he likes. Hamster in the wheel.
What have 'people' got to do with this market?
And this is why the pumpers are saying the market rise has nothing to do with that cocksucker Bernanke. Can't lose the CONfidence of the sheeple.
So wait, you guys are saying printing fiat is bad? What if I am holding the paper in my hand?
Only printing up the US markets isn't working...
Uncle Ben: "Note to self, get more helicopters"
Unless! ... he isn't printing fast enough to prevent a plunge. You want to gamble with that one, be my guest, friend.
Here's what i know..
I know that when the jobless rate drops...
WTI goes up..
And the morning commute traffic goes up.
I heard you can make pork soup by boiling the drinking water.
I thought my cheap bottled water tasted funny.
Those were GMO pigs, Lemming DNA spliced into the pigs genome. The pigs had an insane urge to jump into the river, but they just couldn't explain it!
Let's see, 2007 was year of the pig, and pigs are floating down the river in 2013 (unlucky year?). That means next year rats will be floating down the same river, and the year after that cows.
See, it's all very predictable.
Not sure I buy it. Can you chart it for me?
Sounds like a chart WB7 could concoct. Banzai?
I was just using the order of the Chinese calendar. Usually (not always), the unlucky year is 6-7 years after the lucky year.
By that reckoning, look forward to dragons in 2018...
+1 - The Romans head a pig's head formation, but it wasn't a technical indicator.
Don't panic, this time is different!!!
It is different. The global fiat monetary ponzi that has been expanding for the last 100+ years is reaching its end. This will be the first time that the entire world will go through fiat / credit collapse simaltaneously.
What ZeroHedge and many others calling for a drastic dive in equities are failing to consider is that price is a ratio, and the denominator is the value of FRNs. This is not to say that equities won't dive in the very short term, but in the medium term, very few things will be plummeting faster than FRNs, meaning prices across the board will soar.
I'm just saying be very careful betting that anything will fall faster than FRNs.
please dont tell me we suddenly trust china
I trust China about as much as I trust leadership in the U.S....I think we have an edge on them in the corruption category.
Look guys, the technicals on the four-year chart of the S&P 500 are some of the best I've seen in years. This chart is a screaming buy. No matter how many doomer articles claim that we are due for a correction, the fact remains that the chart continues to make new highs. Pay attention shorts - THIS IS TELLING YOU SOMETHING.
Your the best! While your here, did you write "DOW 36000"? Will you sign my copy?
mmm charts. Don't need to produce anything, don't need to buy anything other than stocks. The charts shall show us the way. Don't need anything on the X or Y, just a squiggly line going from bottom left to top right.
Damn this economics thing is easy.
Reckon these charts show that they are avid readers of ZH.
The only person I've ever met who was a genuine genius was a mainland Chinese girl studying in London. She could absorb a year's worth of reading list in a week then recite vast sections of it with references, then write a cutting analysis in less than an hour. Would have begged her to date me if I had been 10yrs younger
Clever chaps those Chinese, though obviously not clever enough to dispose of livestock discretely if someone wanted to corner the pork market.
Nice job on the 1936 redux post.
Shorts? There are no shorts left in this market...the only shorts I see are on the SNORGTEES blond on the left of my screen.
The only blond on the left side of my screen is that cute little number on the one ounce Gold Eagle. :)
Are you shorting? There's no shorting in investing! I shorted a trade one day and lost money on it. Did I cry? No, my manager(I think his name was Jamie Blankturd) told me to never short again and to go back in there, and GO LONG!!!! BTFD!!! There's no shorting in investing...
Doc the higher we go, all it takes is a whiff of bad news and a bunch of shorts come in thinking they nailed the top perfectly, only to get their balls squeezed again. It is fascinating how many times people are willing to get their balls shocked but it seems to be never ending.
My favorite contradiction fwiw is watching some msm guest talk for 5 minutes about how the market is a "forward looking mechanism" and that is why it is up so high...because it is pricing in the future economic growth a year from now.
Then they are asked about the fed exiting QE and they say "yeah but that is not for another year so the market won't price that in yet".
The interviewer nods their head like the dumb fucking assclown they are and says "that makes a lot of sense, sounds like equities are the best place to be based on that".
I hear you Fonz. This ten day rise on the DOW and the low yeild in junk in awfully reminiscent of 07. My guess is that when the time comes to short this market it will be too late...it will be all over but the crying.
I completely agree. The only thing I wonder about, which may differentiate 07 from today is the Bernak. Specifically that he is in proactive mode now as opposed to reactive back then. European bank may blow up? Bernak was there early with swaps. Spain about to blow up? Swaps. High yield bubble? POMO almost daily buys anything and everything to keep something from cracking.
It seems to me that can drive this market to insane heights. People are thinking triple top, so we top out right here. But I think the numbers may be substantially higher, especially if people give up and start chasing.
We all know how it ends though.
You can short this bullshit by buying 2015 calls in silver or gold. I'd say jan 2014 but there's a lot of accumulation going on there already and it pays to take a contrarian viewpoint sometime. They might know something, but they might also be getting set up to get fleeced, so look beyond all them by buying an insurance premium (time) with the jan 2015 calls. The crescendo of media calls for gold to fall is a clear indicator by itself that one should expect it to go up.
Before all this counterfeit money central bank business model bullshit crashes the notes they've printed are going to attempt a flight to safety. They may be chasing yield right now, but when they shift to a flight to safety things are going to happen quickly.
Buy gold, buy silver. They are your short position here.
edit: miners and junior miners are beaten down hard here too. It might be a good time to accumulate. Anyway, I'm gambling on them here a little bit and intend to keep accumulating until and unless my outlook changes for any reason, but I don't think that is likely now.
Ever rewind a tape deck with no takeup reel? That's what's gonna happen to The Bernank!
please dont tell me we suddenly trust anything that comes out of DC or New York.
China knows one thing for certain about the United States:
We're F*cked.
why does ZH subcontract its charts to the wrong people?
ALL you have to do is call Citi bank or Morgan Stanley to get the Bull lowdown that sings "HOPIUM" IS BACK!
"What bubble inflation? There is no bubble inflation." - Uncle Ben
"I have one of the best records of inflation of any Fed Chair" (SIC) Sic as in sick arrogent bearded man.. yet poor guy, in his defence, he's got a tough job.
What, lying to people? "It's not a lie if you believe it."
But Ben is so close to pushing us to an all time high on the S&P...Damn you China don't ruin this for the Bernank.
Money is definitely flowing into the US despite every indicator pointing downward. WTF is all I can say.
Currency, not money ; ) Money is going the other way.
You know how far we've entered the Twilight Zone when the Chinese seem to be frontrunning reality.
China's started doing some fracking right?
hmm...
(this should have been in with the dead pig comment above)
They know we are trying to counterfeit our way to prosperity and it isn't going to work. That's about all you really need to know.
"...Indeed thus much may undoubtedly be asserted, that in artifice, falsehood, and an attachment to all kinds of lucre, many of the Chinese are difficult to be paralleled by other people...I may not be thought too severe in ascribing to this nation a fraudulent and selfish turn of temper, so contradictory to the character given of them in the legendary accounts of the Romish Missionaires..."
Admiral George Anson, "A Voyage around the world in the years MDCCXL, I, II, III, IV" (published in 1780)
Bond bubble? What bond bubble?
Yield-to-worst in junk bond market hits record lowhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/13/us-corp-bonds-high-yield-idUSL...
The world says, "We don't need commerce when we've got central banks."
The Fortune 500 could shut every building and close every store and their stocks would soar. Think of the cost savings.
When a P/E of 700 becomes normal and a singal that the stock is underbought, real business no longer matters.
amercia trying to create inflation, china trying to stop inflation.
isnt this the way the market is meant to look?
Correct!(YAY) It ends with War(BOO)
Pisanti reminds me so much of nervous BARNEY FIFE,,,who the hell would listen to him???
"The Shakiest Gun in the West"
To MDB: You depend on charts? In the most rigged and manipulated market in the world?
Ignore what MDB says, follow his actions.
He already admitted that he is a stacker.
This is getting scary, without a dip to buy, who is going to jump in now?
the idea is everyone jumps in once they realize there is no dip to buy and then we go exponentally higher.
What this shows is that the LEADING market setting up the direction of trade for ALL other markets is becoming the SHCOMP. This used to be the S&P500/ DOW for a very long time. DOWNFALL.
Spooz was tracking Shanghai in 2009 already
Another view tossing in some basic industrial metals for comparison and just pretending that Benny and his banksta niggas arn't relevering paper with the peoples money to enrich their little club and in fact things really are better how do you explain this ?
http://fiatflaws.blogspot.com/
Telling. Thanks for the link...
I think that some Supply Chain analysis helps. Whenever the orders are falling back, China (the factory of the world) is the first to get wind of it. They are the canary in the coal mine. While they and their execs are adjusting, our execs and 'stock pushers' are still skimming profits and bonuses as long as possible.
Their execs are far more rooted in reality than ours. 80% of ours are rooted in being self-serving snake oil salesmen: IPO's, stock options, bonuses, golf. Our execs and the useless board of governors have a "happy ending", while the average shareholders get screwed. /Ask me if I'm holding any of their miscreant stock. /sarc.
I put my FRN cashflow into rental property and PM -- the former to generate FRN/fiat cashflow that's independent of me punching a clock, and the latter to preserve the buying power of the FRN/fiat. And neither has many middle-men trying to screw me. Eventually I'd also like to have a few acres and have a mini/hobby farm for more food self-sufficiency. In the US if possible, elsewhere if need be.
So, fuck you Wall St, you den of vipers, crooks and thieves! /Now ask me how I really feel./ sarc
Inflation in the US is already starting to show with a .7 increase last month.
Bernanke and the Fed will just keep buying and printing to handle the debt. Double digit inflation
is finally showing up whil the Fed trashes the US dollar.
It's deja vu 2007: Jimmy Rodgers is screaming to buy China and says if the market goes down he is going to buy some more; Peter Schiff is screaming about decoupling on CNBC every day which leads to shortage of workers in coastal China as more Chinese quit jobs to trade stocks. It was hillarious!
china's real estate fueled ponzi finance could be as bad as the subprime crisis.
a lot 10% per num guaranteed investment trusts are funnelled into real estate projects or govt-sponsored infrastructure projects.
given the murky nature of govt finance, who knows whether any of the proceeds of the investment trust are used to pay off earlier expired trust holders.
i'm sure govt projects can't return 10% an average.
tianjin's ambitious manhattan project is destined to become another ghost. the size of project is as big as the entire shanghai financial district, with facade of the building imitating manhattan's.
man, china's good at copying anything, including real estate bubbles.
Seems to me that China's central planners only protect the SCI at the 2,000 level while the US central planners are ready to blaze guns up to a 20 pe level. So based on the all-important unfundamentals, the S&P/NYSE is the better buy.
Welcome to bizarro investing... The new abnormal.