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Consumer Sentiment Misses By Most Ever, Slumps To 15 Month Lows

Tyler Durden's picture


It appears paying more for gasoline and higher taxes trumps the exuberance of the equity markets as UMich Consumer Sentiment crashed in February. Printing at 71.8 on expectations of 78.0 this is the biggest miss on record based on Bloomberg data. The 71.8 level is the lowest since December 2011 as it appears that the Fed's only remaining policy tool is just not sparking that animal spirit in the real economy's anchor - the US consumer - as while current conditions did drop, it is future expectations that plunged.



Chart: Bloomberg


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Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:06 | 3332177 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

And what is with the net long term TICS flows

dropped from 64.2 to 25,7  !!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 12:51 | 3332777 Doomer
Doomer's picture


Do I get a prize for having the highest "Bullish!" call on the comments?  Every story needs one, because somebody needs to make sure that all the ZH'ers know that the rally is still on, no matter what.

(This concludes my public service announcement for today).

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:06 | 3332179 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Kilroy was here.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:20 | 3332263 aint no fortuna...
aint no fortunate son's picture

and wait for it... markets rally on the news!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:29 | 3332308 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

Greenspan does not think stocks are overvalued. What does he know ?

Should the consumer buy some stocks? Maybe that will make 'em feel better.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:19 | 3332493 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Greenspan does not know what he believes.


He once that free markets were the best until he was the chosen one that was able to meddle with them.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:07 | 3332182 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Push gold above 1600 already

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:11 | 3332202 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

No longer. They got that puppy back under control.

<Whew! That was close. Can't have a Friday Gold close above $1,600.>

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:05 | 3332441 Vashta Nerada
Vashta Nerada's picture

I'm moving into base metals now.

Generally, brass and lead.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 13:54 | 3333009 BeerBrewer09
BeerBrewer09's picture

I want to own my weight in silver. Roughly 2552.08333367 troy ounces.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 17:57 | 3333627 mkhs
mkhs's picture

You might want to consider weight watchers.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:08 | 3332183 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

impossible. dow is at all time high, s&p closing in on one, i feel so rich, lol.


the market should be down like 500 pts today, this is a joke. we better get a fucking monster prolonged sell off starting today lasting for a very long time.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:07 | 3332184 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Say it ain't so Bernanke, say it ain't so. (I love my stawks, I love my stawks, I love my stawks.)

<Greenspan says there is no irrational exuberance in the stock markets. Run for the hills.>

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:11 | 3332199 duo
duo's picture

As long as the helicopters play Wagner during the money drop (Ride of the Valkyries, preferably)

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:58 | 3332417 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

charlie don't surf

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:25 | 3332290 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

There don't appear to be any humans still trading, so Greenspan may be correct. Can HFT computers feel irrational exuberance? Or do the algos simply rationalize their decisions? 


Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:08 | 3332185 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Head and shoulders formation between early 2012 and now

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:08 | 3332186 Racer
Racer's picture

They must be VERY bad indeed if the fiddled figures are that bad!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:09 | 3332187 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Wish they would poll us here in Taxachussets if you want a jaw dropper.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:03 | 3332435 DblAjent
DblAjent's picture

I used to be a Masshole

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:21 | 3332500 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin&#039;'s picture

MassiveTwoShits............Don't miss it at all

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:47 | 3332578 madcows
madcows's picture

They're fleeing to NH.  Get the Fuck out of my state.  You frigged up your own state.  Leave mine alone.  Although its really too late.  The Governor is a wacko liberal woman.  Our congressional reps are all women...3 of which are Wacko Liberals.  NH is now no different than MA/NY/CA/CT/WA... there's nowhere left to hide.  The Fucking loonies have infiltrated every state.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 12:08 | 3332652 ceilidh_trail
ceilidh_trail's picture

Got that right! Look at what they did to Florida- doing to Colorado, etc. They create all this stupidity and then flee what they voted for and then move to a clean state and start to vote for (and eventually outvote the locals) the same stupidity that wrecked their original state.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 12:13 | 3332665 machineh
machineh's picture

So much for the Free State project, huh?

There's just no substitute for secession to escape Usgov's reverse Midas touch.

You can move to NH, but you still have to sign up for ObamaCare next year. Meet the new state, just like the old state.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:10 | 3332193 GraveyardSpiral
GraveyardSpiral's picture

Everything is Sunshine & Lollipops....the drone circling over my house reasured me so.

Well, actually, its a Cessna 172 with real humans on board but it climbs to station at exactly 5:45Am 3-5 days a week and loiters for 2.5hrs.  Based on the engine noise it is unmistakably a Lyc O-360 and THAT is what I hear that is telling me everything is A-O.K.  A sort of comforting, constant reminder that Ben is looking out for us littlle serfs.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:28 | 3332302 GeezerGeek
GeezerGeek's picture

Perhaps it is a drone disguised as a Cessna trying to lull you into a sense of well-being.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:10 | 3332194 tuttisaluti
tuttisaluti's picture

We are sinking, we are sinking.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:10 | 3332195 ilovemilken
ilovemilken's picture

Stocks will still close higher today.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:11 | 3332197 Cursive
Cursive's picture

I call bullshit on this.  Never believed this number, but the release is a sign that the TPTB are ready to send this bitch of a market to her knees.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:06 | 3332442 DblAjent
DblAjent's picture

Plunge it, Bitchez!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:11 | 3332198 vote_libertaria...
vote_libertarian_party's picture

Maybe Jamie D will crash the markets to bury the senate committe hearings about JPM.



I'm just sayin'....

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:14 | 3332222 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Do it ...punk ass bankster

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:11 | 3332200 Confundido
Confundido's picture

The infallible 10am smack down on gold. You can bet on it. Thou. shallt. not. cross. $1,600/oz.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:12 | 3332211 _ConanTheLibert...
_ConanTheLibertarian_'s picture

Well, in 2005 and 2006 there were big misses but in 2008/2009 they were not that big.

So ZH, please, don't get so sensational with this. You don't need it really.


Disclaimer: still think SHTF will occur possibly this year

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:16 | 3332224 Smegley Wanxalot
Smegley Wanxalot's picture

What the consumer needs to boost confidence is more info about the sex life of the Kardassians, more worship of Frau Chewbacca, and more news about justin bieber's upcoming sex change operation.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:17 | 3332236 tickertapeguide
tickertapeguide's picture

Good start, now lets see a 3% drop.... come on sellers

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:20 | 3332266 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

once the iPhone loses that NEW SHINE... it turns out to be a cheap piece of plastic... and your sentiment goes down... untill you buy a new one...

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:22 | 3332269 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture


Because wealth compounds over long periods of time — a dollar saved 10 years ago is worth much more than a dollar saved today — young adults probably face less secure futures for decades down the road, and even shakier retirements.

“In this country, the expectation is that every generation does better than the previous generation,” said Signe-Mary McKernan, an author of the study. “This is no longer the case. This generation might have less.” The authors said the situation facing young Americans might be unprecedented.

Strong and sustained job and wage growth would cure many of the ills facing younger workers, experts said. But their delayed or diminished wealth accumulation might still have a lasting impact on their finances.

“It’s a little bit of a tipping-point moment,” said Ms. McKernan of the Urban Institute, a nonprofit Washington research institution. “If we don’t address it today, they might never catch up.”

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:57 | 3332414 adr
adr's picture

Let's see, one dollar saved in 2003 had a compounding interest rate of 3.8%. I think it dropped to the low threes over the next fer years. By 2009 the savings rate dropped below 1%.

SO the saved dollar made about $.25 in interest over ten years. Almost everything you need costs double what it did in 2003, some things much more.

On paper your $1 from 2003 is worth about $1.25, but the purchasing power of that dollar declined by half, so it is really worth about $.60.


Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:01 | 3332427 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

that's a funny Times article-I like the fatty that looks like she's not exactly starving who ran up a bunch of debt in school, got a masters degree and works for a union, and lives in expensive NYC-wow-can you make a bunch of dumber choices? the sad part is she wants to reproduce to raise kids even fatter and more worthless than she is.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:21 | 3332270 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:22 | 3332277 El Hosel
El Hosel's picture

Studdering bbbbb Banksters


Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:39 | 3332357 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture


Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:37 | 3332350 Everybodys All ...
Everybodys All American's picture

This is a central planning reset. One month you have the historic miss then the next several months that follow you have better than expected beats. Meanwhile the underlying economy continues to stagnate.

Right out of the playbook.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:47 | 3332382 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Earlier this morning we heard 'optimism' is at all time highs, followed an hour later by 'sentiment' at all time lows....what a bunch of straight-up BULLSHIT...bread and circuses smokescreen while the entire country is imploded!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:52 | 3332592 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Psst the Fed is getting ready to take away the punch-bowl and the first thing they do is start handing out non-alcoholic beers. They also put a lot of POMO into the market. It may be that this party can fly on its own, we'll see, but this is why several analysts are calling for a bad end. Meanwhile they're hoping that individual investors get sucked into this market. Someone noted that the last many years the S&P has performed BEST when it was down around 15%. That is the Fed steps in and brings it back up, but at the top, only suckers buy at the top. Care for an O'Douls??

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 12:17 | 3332682 machineh
machineh's picture

Put them POMOs in a barrel to ferment, and they turn into cider. 

The orchard is angry, Ben.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 12:46 | 3332778 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

and according the chained CPI measures, if you can't afford beer, you'll make cider in your basement, and the net is the same economic activity

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 10:54 | 3332407 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Trying to decide if today is the day to rotate half my portfolio back into TZA and SPXU.  I have a hunch that a correction is just around the corner but thought that at the end of January and got burned...

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:04 | 3332437 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

are you a masochist?

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:16 | 3332474 Caracalla
Caracalla's picture

Lol no, just trying to make some money.  This thing can't keep going up forever.  14 days straight is the all time record and what are on, 11?  Plus, sell in May and go away will be here soon, especially if it comes in April like last year

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:00 | 3332422 DblAjent
DblAjent's picture

They must have only measured in my area where the mall and plaza parking lots are always full.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:02 | 3332432 razorthin
razorthin's picture

Consumer no longer needed in the matrix.  Moar QE please.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:06 | 3332443 adr
adr's picture

Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that's wonderful is what I feel when Bens a printin,
Brighter than the top of Cramer's head,
When you're near the red disappears, dear,
And I feel so fine just to know that you are handin me a dime.

My life is sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
That's how this refrain goes, so come on, join in everybody!

Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that's wonderful is sure to come your way
When the record Dow days are here to stay.

Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that's wonderful is what I feel when Bens a printin,
Brighter than the top of Cramer's head,
When you're near the red disappears, dear,
And I feel so fine just to know that you are handin me a dime.

My life is sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
That's how this refrain goes, so come on, join in everybody!

Sunshine, lollipops and rainbows,
Everything that's wonderful is sure to come your way
'Cause Bens a printin, the Dow rises above,
And record days are here to stay!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:47 | 3332581 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

Leslie Gore. she also sang "It's My Party and I'll Cry if I Want To.."

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:07 | 3332448 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

how the fuck is the dow and s&p only down slightly today, when u take into account how fucking bad of a miss the michigan consumer confidence missed, inflation rose, and 10 days win streak, this should all lead to a major fucking sell off.


u can bet ur house, that if the number was a slight beat even, we would be up triple digits. yet a terrible miss, and a perfect time to sell, we fucking r flat pretty much in terms of pct pts. what a scam.


fuck u bernanke , i hate ur fucking guts

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:08 | 3332450 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

J.P. Morgan chief equity analyst prick on CNBC just compared people's fear of Tomatoes 200 years ago to people being afraid to buy stocks today (and of course he was pumping equities).

God damned fucking parasites!!!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 14:06 | 3333038 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

As we become more cyber-connected, we've all become less connected to the real world and each other.

As we've abandoned the land for the toil of city jobs, we have exchanged the uncertainty of self-sufficiency for the certainty of servitude. 

Rather than having Nature as our master, we have opted for greedy, corrupt, self-serving men to be our masters. But we get to call it "progress", in that you spend time in iGadgets, rather than with living beings or the splendor of Nature.

There's the bed we lie in, the hive-cocoon we exist in.  Do you feel 'connected' now?  Welcome to the Matrix, bitchez! 

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:16 | 3332473 realtick
Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:19 | 3332495 TrustWho
TrustWho's picture

...maybe consumers' attitude is bleak, however daddy Bernanke has his equity index completely under control.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:20 | 3332498 pragmatic hobo
pragmatic hobo's picture

consumers? you mean the brain-dead zombies who can be squeezed at will by the corporate amerika? At least the walmart thinks they are;

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:32 | 3332538 breakyoself
breakyoself's picture

CNBS has no shame. That was just a failure on all levels in that segment with the 5th grader. David had his head down like he was reading his notes and Simon says nothing. Simon look like he was about to burst into laughter. We are going to get you 'no money having' embiciles last dollar by getting you into stocks and will do every shameful thing in the process.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:43 | 3332572 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

every night, on the msm and i mean every night, the housing market is recovering, and the jobless rate is going down. then there's a winter storm somewhere. and then someone helped a little old lady across the street. that is journalism. (one more article in the bill of rights you won't miss)

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:35 | 3332548 venturen
venturen's picture

We Love paying more for Gasoline...what are you talking about!

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:40 | 3332564 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

its like wine, the more it costs the better it tastes

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 22:11 | 3334283 mkhs
mkhs's picture

The more you whine, the more it costs?

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:40 | 3332562 the grateful un...
the grateful unemployed's picture

i get the feeling that money is coming out of consumers pockets to pay for stocks, and they don't own the stocks? is that right?

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 11:58 | 3332620 smartstrike
smartstrike's picture

UMCS of 71% means we're already in the recession, 75% is the borderline between GDP growth and contraction. A sharp decrease in the sentiment index also means that stock prices will decline.


This is a significant change of opinion for me: I was bullish on the stock market, and maintained since 2009 bottom that we were not going into recession. Further it is my belief that stocks peak in 2013.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 12:17 | 3332675 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Let me know when it hits 35.  The public believe the propaganda so far.  There is nothing more seductive to a dependent urban population than socialism and its propaganda of economic fairness.  We are all victims or we openly sympathize with them at cocktail parties.  We will never run out of money in the new central bank utopia.

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 13:29 | 3332907 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture
France mulls law to let strikers ransack offices

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 13:54 | 3333004 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I'm bearish on this so-called "Recovery".  My real feet-on-the-street intel (from Sales and Business Development people) in the high-tech sector (aerospace & defense, consumer electronics) is not nearly as rosy as the "official" stats and picture.  The Chairman Obama and his Kremlin Apparatchik gang are lying!  As are their Wall St Oligarchs, whom they serve.

I know tons of people who'd be happy to buy a home -- IF they had more confidence that their Middle-Class jobs would not evaporate tomorrow.  As it is, they feel vulnerable, because their execs (and the investment whores they serve) are likely to downsize again, just so they could reap their effin bonuses.  It's no longer about people, but about 27 y.o. wet-behind-their-ear assholes with bullshit degrees, working on Wall St, bullying CEO's and demanding better corporate stats (downsizing) from the CEOs. 

It's a Global Potemkin Village:  It's all about paper stats for paper money, paid with real sweat and pain by real people. 

Fri, 03/15/2013 - 16:16 | 3333397 Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

Better hope for some change. The Drone Messiah's still got your back, right, plebs? Right? Right?

PS: Your rent's going up cause the local Education Mafia, err, School District, basically unilaterally, decided to raise taxes again.

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