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Cyprus: The World’s Biggest "Poker Game"
While this kind of 'wealth tax' has been predicted, as we noted yesterday, this stunning move in Cyprus is likely only the beginning of this process (which seems only stoppable by social unrest now). To get a sense of both what just happened and what its implications are, RBS has put toegther an excellent summary of everything you need to know about what the Europeans did, why they did it, what the short- and medium-term market reaction is likely to be, and the big picture of this "toxic policy error." As RBS summarizes, "the deal to effectively haircut Cypriot deposits is an unprecedented move in the Euro crisis and highlights the limits of solidarity and the raw economics that somebody has to pay. It is also the most dangerous gambit that EMU leaders have made to date." And so we await Europe's open and what to expect as the rest of the PIIGSy Banks get plundered.
Authored by Harvinder Sian and Michael Michaelides of RBS,
Cyprus: the world’s biggest “poker game”
The deal to effectively haircut Cypriot deposits is an unprecedented move in the Euro crisis and highlights the limits of solidarity and the raw economics that somebody has to pay. It is also the most dangerous gambit that EMU leaders have made to date.
- What did they do? Hit depositors.
- Why did they do it? Politics, economics, and because they think they can get away with it.
- Cyprus needs to vote on this and any delay of opening the banks on Tuesday is more risk-off.
- Short term market reaction: Risk-off. The situation is fluid but watch politics, Cyprus bank runs risk, weak periphery banks impact and rating agencies. Worst case scenario? EMU exit talk. The Best case scenario? Germany is correct and the ECB bridges the time to when this is clear.
- Big picture: This is toxic and a policy error.
- Long bunds, sell the euro, sell periphery, Spain could underperform Italy, but nobody in the periphery wins.
1. What did they do?
In the early hours of this weekend, the Troika decided to impose an effective haircut to both uninsured and even more interestingly insured (<€100k) Cypriot bank deposits. More precisely, the €10bn bank rescue in Cyprus will end up with a bail-in on junior bondholders and a one-time tax on depositors. Deposits below €100k will be taxed 6.75%, and those above at 9.9%, for a total contribution of €5.8bn. Depositors will receive bank equity as compensation and the Cypriot President has offered Gas-linked notes if deposits are kept in the country for two years.
In addition, the Eurogroup expects the Russian government to come to an agreement with Cyprus soon to make a contribution to the rescue.
The Eurogroup head, Dutchman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, has refused to rule out that Cyprus will be the last instance where deposit holders get hit. Olli Rehn however has ruled this out by saying Cyprus is unique. The difference is that Mr Dijsselbloem represents the views of national finance ministers and leaders.
2. Why did they do it?
There is an excess debt problem and somebody has to pay. The division of costs is a policy choice.
The typical choices beyond growth and inflation, are via (a) getting friendly foreigners to pay such as Germany/EFSF/ESM etc; (b) getting wealthy domestics to pay (c) forcing the debtor nation to make good the loans over time through austerity; and (d) force losses on creditors such as the expropriation of SNS Reaal subordinated bonds, losses on Anglo Irish senior bonds, OSI, and of course PSI.
The signal is on the limits of core solidarity
The haircut on the deposit base in Cyprus is unique in hitting the most secure ladder in bank capital, when Cypriot government bonds and senior bank paper are still planned to be made whole. That policy choice was unexpected. One key message is that the decision represents visible evidence of the limits of core EMU solidarity. In truth, this was already evident via the ESM’s seniority and the CACs in 1y+ new government bonds.
...and the limits of the economics
According to media reports (FT) the Cypriot leaders were felt to be left with little choice. We discuss this below but why should Germany, other core countries and even the ECB threaten to take down the Cyprus’ largest banks or threaten full bail-in of depositors? The answer is that resources are limited. Core EMU is not large enough to bailout the periphery risk and so default has to be part of the solution.
Politicians are taking on the prospect that Cyprus is not systemic
Behind this political and economic backdrop is also another crucial factor: The implicit gambit here from the Troika is that the actions in Cyprus will not have systemic consequences. For instance, UK Sky television sources reported that this was indeed the message to the Cypriots over the weekend.
Is that true? Yes, on a myopic level this is correct. Cyprus has special features which include the size of the banking sector with assets of €126.4bn, or over 7-times GDP. The deposit base is €68bn, of with over €20bn is by non residents, mostly Russian. Moreover, there was little else in the banking sector to haircut with around €2bn in senior and sub, and PSI in Cypriot government bonds is was always problematic given that a large share of the debt is under English law where the CACs mean 25% holdings can provide a block while 55% domestic debt ownership implies PSI would necessitate further bank recapitalisation.
- In other words, breaking the taboo on hitting depositors, was a deliberate policy on politics, economics and a ‘bet’ from the Trokia that Cyprus’ problems will not radiate into more widespread Euro risk concerns.
- Very clearly, the OMT announcement effect coupled with the moderate reaction to SNS Reaal, Anglo Irish, and Italian elections have helped to embolden political ‘poker-like’ tactics with the markets.
3. Cyprus needs to vote on this and any delay of opening the banks on Tuesday is even more risk-off
The decision to hit depositors is a surprise to the markets but also Cypriot leaders, some of which had very recently described the idea of hitting depositors as ‘stupid’. So what happened? According to the FT and other media, a creditor group led by Germany & Finland and supported by the IMF, had been pushing for depositor haircuts to limit the overall size of the rescue loan. There was seemingly no appetite to recreate the fudges in the Greek debt sustainability analysis. The Cypriot leadership were stunned by this move but were cornered by news the ECB would otherwise pull the plug on Cyprus’ Laiki bank, which rather fortuitously, apparently no longer qualified for ELA. This in turn would have meant the sovereign would be on the hook for all insured deposits, which according to the FT would be some €30bn or 175% of GDP, as well as ushering in social upheaval.
This explains the fact that Cyprus – which had planned to vote for deal on Sunday 17th March – has had to delay the vote to Monday 18th March.
- The reason is that Cypriot President Anastasiades did not have a mandate a move to haircut deposits.
Moreover, Anastasiades’ calls for all political parties to support the Eurogroup decision in parliament, to avoid an uncontrolled collapse of financial system; job losses and Euro exit, is a signal that a Yes vote is not assured.
As for the vote count in Parliament, the main governing party will likely say Yes but the junior coalition partner has set three conditions for support, (i) written confirmation this is a one-off, (ii) the ECB must provide unlimited liquidity to make up for any deposit run and (iii) no new austerity measures beyond those already agreed. We do not know whether these conditions can be met. Note all opposition parties are against. It is possible that the vote could be with abstentions. In addition, note the initial read of popular opinion is overwhelming against the deal with 71% of respondents to an early survey saying Parliament should reject the deal.
Bank runs and bank holidays
The local Cypriot media report that bank ATM machines have run dry and that there is general anger about a freeze in electronic transfers
The move by the Eurogroup is unprecedented but the fear is rather obviously that a bank run may be in the offing. This is behind the rationale of President Anastasiades’ statement that depositors keeping their money in Cyprus for 2-years will receive securities linked to future profits from natural gas revenues. It remains to be seen whether the confidence trick of paying Cypriot taxpayers with their own resources works.
- The situation is rather fluid and there is enough concern on the political backlash in Cyprus that it has been mooted that Cypriot banks will stay closed beyond the Monday bank holiday. If this is the outcome (probably from political paralysis) then risk markets are likely to take even greater fright.
4. Short term market reaction
a) This is risk-off but how far it goes is too fluid to pin down with markets initially focused on bank risk, and related political risk, but also be watchful for ratings risk.
b) Worst case scenario: EMU exit debate.
c) Best case scenario: Cyprus swallows the medicine and this looks like a policy error at the next crisis... But even here we have a period of darkness to get through first.
The OMT announcement effect has been very powerful in reducing investor sensitivity to event risks in the European periphery. The fact the ECB can stand conditionally behind a sovereign is important in helping markets to differentiate between tail risks and this reduces contagion. This is part of the explanation behind the muted reaction to Anglo Irish Seniors, SNS Reaal subs and the Italian election. Nonetheless, wiping out depositors is at another level of concern.
What we are watching near term
- Cypriot politics will dictate the most immediate reaction and obviously the local bank runs. A delay to the vote for the deal (which means extending the bank holiday) or a ‘No’, will heighten market concerns. Conversely, a ‘Yes’ vote could materially reduce near term risk as the ECB can stand behind the Cypriot financial system with ELA to compensate for lost deposits. The hope here will be that confidence and deposits eventually return as they have done in other countries such as Greece.
- Cross border bank contagion - most likely to weaker periphery banks. The Cypriot banking system is sufficiently unique to mean that we are not looking at wholesale cross border contagion.
- Ratings agencies: The sheer guile in taking haircuts to deposits means there is less EMU solidarity than initially thought and one could also make the argument that Loss-Given-Default is materially higher now. This combination means in our view that there is downside rating risk to the periphery.
How bad could it get? If Cyprus rejects the deal, there is a political vacuum, and uncertain funding vacuum in who will fill the gap when the Cypriot banks eventually do open, and net this means speculation on EMU exit.
The best scenario? The Parliament swallows the medicine fearing financial collapse and/or EMU exit, and in time the one-off promise of the deposit tax is seen as more credible, meaning that deposits flow back into Cyprus. In the meantime, the ECB ELA keeps the banks alive.
5. Big picture, this is toxic and policy error
Our view has been that debt restructuring is a necessary albeit painful component of the crisis resolution. This stems from the fact that creditor nations are simply too small to absorb debtor risk and because sovereign EMU states will still exist for many years. That means a line has to be drawn under the available cross-border assistance and in practical terms this means (a) sovereign debt restructuring risk is higher than the consensus believes and (b) private sector and intra-country wealth transfers would have to be forced.
The decision to hit depositors was however much bolder than we expected – and we think this has two major influences.
Firstly, game theory the future where a country such as Italy is reaching the limits of debt sustainability. The analogue here is to get wealthy Italians to finally pay tax via perhaps a one-time solidarity tax on sovereign bond coupons/principal, given that domestic residents and the ECB own 71% of the market. Alternatively, getting the locals to make a sacrifice by extending the debt maturity is also feasible under the concept of ‘you broke it – you pay for it’.
- In a sense, the more domestic financial architecture, including ownership of government bonds, makes such local burden-sharing solutions more politically viable. One could even say that the ownership moves in markets aids some type of Paris Club and London Club workout.
Secondly, even if the Eurogroup wins on the idea that Cyprus wants the Euro so much that it takes the medicine, and Cyprus’ banks are unique enough to mean limited contagion effects, then that would only be phase one of the impact.
- We think the very fact that deposit haircuts have been put on the table means the cost of future bailouts will be higher as banks (at a minimum the weak banks) will be destabilised.
6. Markets
This is risk-off, and we think that the most likely scenarios involve more political wrangling where Cyprus tries to fight for a better deal – and waits to see if there is contagion to force the hands of core EMU. That means, the odds are on the banks remaining closed for a few more days and more local political wrangling. We are also attentive to any deal with Russia. Moreover, once the banks do open, markets will be attentive to the scale of deposit flight. As we mentioned above, we are also alert to ratings risks and that even in a best case scenario, there is a period of turmoil to pass through.
This is a recipe for long bunds, sell the Euro FX, selling periphery risk in general. The focus on banks and deposits could see Spain underperform Italy.
(h/t Steve)
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Royal flush - take that bitches!
It can't be a real crisis. Just look at gold and especially silver - unchanged. Move along. Nothing see here.
What the Eurozone has done to Cyprus is so stupid that even Euro area banks are saying that?!
I agree with a proposal I saw elsewhere today at ZH: guarantee all accounts to 100,000 euros, and take bigger haircuts from larger accounts.
I also saw (but cannot confirm) that Russian Mob money does not typically stay long in Cyprus (except beach houses I suppose) before being sent on to Liechtenstein, etc.
There are a LOT of apparently contradictory things going here. Yes, Risk Off!
People never learn
So, how much will the DOW be up tomorrow from pre-market emergency double-time QE pumping?
The widespread effects of the global financial crisis began to truly take off in late 2007, when...
http://i46.tinypic.com/30ni0ev.jpg
Wont change anything, the Dow winning streak was marginally broken last friday. This is the start of a new streak. The futures action indicates that its negative now but by the time we wake up, the ES will be flat or green. how much you wanna bet that is going to happen. Nothing phases me anymore. Until the Cypriots starts acting desperately and by that, i dont mean taking buldozers to banks, I mean having the heads of bankers rolling, nothing will change.
No-one wants to be last in line if everyone else is pulling out their cash. This panic will spread to other countries. If people think that their money might be at risk, it's entirely rational for them to take it out.
The big money can't simply pull it out as Euro notes. The money has to go somewhere, and has to stay in a banking system somewhere. Me thinks the flight capital comes to the USA and Germany.
Cyprus bailout: 'people are panicking, they're afraid of losing their money'
Cypriots tell of shock finding government had seized up to 10% of savings – despite promise deposits would be safe
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/17/cyprus-bailout-seize-savings-deposits
All the times in world history that folks could have reacted to obvious warning signs and got out but stayed put.
You're witnessing one of those times right now.
Talking about the warning signs... as Merkel lying repeatedly last Thursday and Friday...
"Merkel said repeatedly on Thursday that a potential Cyprus bailout was not on the schedule" http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/brussels-focuses-on-constitutional-changes-in-hungary-and-cypriot-debt-a-889067.html
“When it becomes serious, you have to lie." -Juncker
They aren't bailing out Cyprus. They are robbing them.
http://www.funnyordie.com/videos/dfc0b6f0bb/mr-panos-financial-crisis-in...
"You can rip-off all the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can sure as hell rip-off all the middle-class all the time."
Abe Lincoln Jr. IV
More like "Porker Game"
As "The Honey Bucket" Septic Tank Pump Service always reminds us:
"A Flush beats a Full House"
This obviously has Ben's blessing ...testing the waters?
Of course. Scaring people out of peripheral regions (nice to customers) to core region (banks nice to Central Bank) is good for Fed. And a fear of Euro is great news for the Fed's shareholders and the Dollar. "It's all good" says Uncle Ben.
Oh, and as I predicted 12 hrs ago (before markets opened), as much as I share the disappointment, no gold price of significance has occurred or will occur.
Gold just broke the $1600 resistance.
...testing the waters?
Yes.
6% to 10% taxes on our IRA's and 401k's
No wonder NO ONE in Wash. DC is at all concerned about the $16Tril (soon to be $20Tril) debt.
Cyprus has no central bank to call its own, so they get 10% 'taxed' off their purchasing power. The UK does have its own, so they 10% QE'd off theirs. So what's the difference?
.......So what's the difference?
Visibility.
This is why my version of the IRA/401k consists of little round golden and silver bits of metal that aren't far from that other precious metal, lead. Confiscate THIS, bitchez!
Precisely...
there is only one 'team' - sovereign powers of putative 'nation states' is now a legacy concept...indulged in only by fantasists and antiquarians.
the steps in the road...MFG for clearing the path to seizure of investor assests; Cyprus for taking to the depositor level; next round - safety deposit boxes; afterthat - pension funds and 401ks; end game - metals confiscation. Royal flush.
This is pretty funny...
Drunk With Debt - St. Patrick's Day SpecialEverything's bullish for DOW 36,000. Buy it if it's not nailed down muppets!
Could be. If there is a total capital flight from Europe, the DOW could hit 50,000 and T-bill rates could go to -2%.
Cyprus woes spark Asia selloff, Nikkei flls 1.7%
Contagion works in mysterious ways...
Just who runs these banks, or who owns these banks (get paid by the bank, or got money during the good times)? It's their bank, but not their money in their bank. The people with money in the bank don't own those banks, any more than the German people do. Who ever was driving the thing when it broke has to be responsible. We are adults, and adults stand for what ever they did, or let happen. The depositors are the victims. It's Iceland time, now suck it up.
Or we they could try something different, follow the rule of law, and wipe out owners and bondholders first. That whole "Russian mob money" thing, true or not, is just a way to sell a criminal act to a frightened and distracted population--in Cyprus, in Europe, and around the world.
Next time it's to punish evil real estate speculators, and eventually they get to evil ball bearing speculators.
"Just look at gold and especially silver - unchanged. " Don't just Look at the PM prices, buy more now, prices had already bottomed regardless of the recent thefts. Now add some emotional attachment to the recent news and things are looking very good for gold and silver.
Rumors are already floating that banks may not open in Southern Europe or close early if it gets to bad...
"The hope here will be that confidence and deposits eventually return as they have done in other countries such as Greece."
Bullshit much??
They are confident that confidence will return. What a bullshit monetary system this world had - "faith-based money". Years from now nobody will ever believe that the world was stupid enough to go along with it for so long.
I worry the ECB will just "Fed-up" and become the "indirect bad bank" and do the excess reserves (oh wait, there aren't any) trick that the Fed has done to the tune of $2 trillion. Extend and pretend.
I don't really think this is the TILT moment, but maybe it is, ala Sarajevo in WWI. It is usually in the backwaters and hardly noticed places that the straw breaks the camels back. Seatbelts folks.
Closed? Good, fuck em. Sheeple need to wake up.
If any do close, they are all going under. ECB has to print Euros or let he banks write unfunded cashiers checks.
Not to mention, the longer they stay closed, the angrier the depositors become and its Game Over for the banks.
And if they allow depositors to withdraw their money unrestrained, its Game Over for the banks since they've certainly will have lost any remaining confidence in the banks,
If they want to steal their money now, the only thing they can do at this point is print and inflate the euro out from under them.
Being cut off from your money is like being financially waterboarded.
Depositors are not going to leave themselves open to a second round of financial suffocation.
"Being cut off from your money is like being financially waterboarded."
Excellent metaphor. To not have access to your money is like being suffocated. You know the air/cash is there, you just can't get to it, and you don't know when you will get to it again.
Sheer panic.
+ 6 - 9% haircut. Haircuts are torture too.
Look what it did for Sampson. Merkel: the German Delilah.
Look, all this talk of containment flies out the window if you are banking in say, Ireland, Spain or Italy, because if the Cypriots don't riot in the streets over this then this little scenario will be played out in those countries as well. Do you really think the ECB won't do this again if they can get Cyprus to swallow its medicine, (regardless of the "this is special and this won't happen elsewhere" line of utter caca)? If the Cypriots go for this then it is license to do it everywhere else, including America. And if it does go down then it won't be the only time, because there is still a "spending problem" in these countries. Until they get spending under control, the "beatings will continue until morale improves", as the old saying goes.
"Depositors are not going to leave themselves open to a second round of financial suffocation."
No. And those of us watching from afar are not going to leave ourselves open to the first round.
We need to starve the banks of deposits. It's the only way. I am going to put a world of hurt on my bank tomorrow when I request all my funds in cash. At 100:1 leverage, they are going to feel it.
And when I fill out the FBI paperwork for a >10k+ plus withdrawal, I am specifically going to cite the failure of central bankers to protect savers over all the speculators. Fuck this.
Well done mate. Be sure to replace the funny paper with real money afterwards.
Yes, conveniently, the coin store is about 10 blocks from the main office.
If u r in the ussa, it will take a while to get your fiat.
u have time to wlk to the coin shop and make up a list of pretties.
Watch out for those DHS drones circling overhead.
I hear them buzzing overhead, but evidently they are not yet armed, or they choose not to shoot at me. So far.
This is exactly my plan. I will be first in line at the bank this morning to withdraw the paltry <5k sum I trusted the bank with and it will be converted to hard assets by the time the second customer finishes his transaction. Gold, silver, lead, and food FTW!
Holy crap! You have somewhere you can still find ammo? I was in Turner's Sporting Goods in San Bernadino on Saturday and it was picked clean. All that was left was some 20ga. That's it. Their selection of firearms was also very thin and ridiculously overpriced. Boy, I tell ya', that Obama fella' can sure sell guns.
And when I fill out the FBI paperwork for a >10k+ plus withdrawal,
For a meazly ten grand?........Holy shit; what sort of country do you live in????????
so called IRA's 401K's safe as a cyprus savings account. sleep well sheep, sleep well.
to all you illegal savers out there, JPM and Jamie Dee, have set up a dept to help .gov manage the transfer of funds from the criminal savers who hide over $100,000 IN IRA's and 401k's , billions to be made in that massive money grab. sleep well sheep sleep well.
This could be the prelude to the emergency imposition of an EU Banking Union, in the dead of night over the next weekend. Eurocrats are not stupid. They have a plan B and a plan C.
There are more phases to this dance left I think. We are not going over the waterfall just yet. But I will stay tuned and mix metaphors...
All bankers and politicians are GREEDY! This lust for greed is a means to an end, which is power over the masses. Debt slaves is what they want us to be, so they can be our masters. Their weakness is they can't control their own destructive interests which greed breeds. Greed means they are cannibals by their very nature. They will consume the masses first by any means possible to steal their wealth. Lies beget bubbles, which beget crisis, which begets bailouts, which begets theft of citizens assets to pay the bankers. When the citizens have no assets left to loot, the bankers will turn on each other, just like they did with Bear and Lehman. It is survival of the fittest. For the banks, it is kill or be killed.
The politicians are just one step behind. They understand they exist because of the banks. They know that as the banks go, so they go. For the politician it is survival of the fittest as well. The only thing that will stop the politician is a greater fear of the people, then fear of the banks. That's why the banks have to neutralize the masses. The masses can't be a threat to the politicians or the banks have no leverage. That's why the banks are targeting the wealth of the citizens. Debt slaves have no power. It's all about control. Plan B is confiscate wealth to neutralize the citizenry by making them debt slaves, dependent on both banks and government. Plan C is bank consolidation/cannibalization. Plan D is New World Order courtesy of the New Oligarchy.
Plan B only happens if the people let it. If the EU bankers have over reached in Cyprus, then the people will revolt against Plan B. But with almost 50% of the US on the government dole in some way (and much of Europe similar), Plan B is almost ready to be approved by majority rule. All it will take is one more crisis to corral the sheep for good. How does Democracy die? With thunderous applause.
Why this may not be the big one.
I'd venture a guess the Central Banks of the world have had plenty of time to stock warehouses of currency for just such an occasion. Years, in fact. It just takes a 3 day weekend to get it transported.
When they open, every branch will have 20 video cams focused on the faces of happy customers counting cash wads as they exit the bank. These feeds will be instantly wired into all media outlets in Europe.
Bet there was a lot of overtime this weekend logged by brinks drivers and crews. Helicopters? Fed Ex Jets?
Electronic transfers can be timed out with the excuse being overloaded servers or, being digital, can be massaged as needed.
Really, only the first couple hours of customers need be paid. The lines will see folks are having no problem, and many will go home, satisfied it will be OK.
If they bungle it, yeah, I'll concede chaos, but these shysters are pretty well versed.
So.......................... who has exposure to the CDS lines on all of this? Who gets the donkey dick if there is a default event? Is this just a power play to steal the gas deposits they found? I think they will not shave everyone with the tax, but the europeans will liberate the gas finds to reduce their dependance on Russia. Press release - "No haircuts, we're going to lease/sell our gas instead."
This market has been primed for weeks to roll, we just needed a spark to ignite the correction. Thank you Cyprus!
www.tickertapeguide.com
This was an announcement of open and blatant corruption to the people of the world for all to see in plain site.
I think at this point many of us are waiting for the rest of them to realize all the shit going down, the very "crazy" talk we have spoken of is reality but more bizarre. Critical mass is approaching like a runaway train. We outnumber them.
I love it. A bank telling us the best case scenario is Cyprus eats a dick sets a precedent for future dicks to be eaten.
yep. Now they only need to default and the Russians might step in and make them whole.
Any Russian with half a brain will pull all their money out the moment the banks open.
Russian Roulette
Russian Roublette ?
Russian Ratatouille it would appear.
Actually, if Russia really wanted to stir up a shitstorm, they'd offer Cyprus the Faustian deal: Help Cyprus exit the EU and use a gold-backed Ruble, and use the protection of their upcoming Cypriot naval base, while they help Cyprus develop the huge gas reserves offshore.
Yup. It's what's called a policy over-step. They went too far, their true intentions are now laid bare for all to see.
If you're going to steal from people you can't make it this obvious you're going to steal from them. Even sheep are not so stupid they don't know they're next for slaughter when they see their brother's throat slit right next to them.
OK, some are that stupid, but not all. Maybe not even most.
good to see they can manage a gold knockdown in the midst of all this right now.
Yes it is.
Hopefully it won't blow up before I can get a bunch of fiat out of the bank and into gold in the morning.
i think policy makers from outside the EZ are very much watching to see if there is an outright deflation. the euro is a commodity currency...unemployment is quite high outside of "core." you have to "print natural gas" that much we know. also you cannot rule out "imperial overtones." France, Britain, the United States...you could get a "scramble for Africa" effect if it appears this is the send off to the whole "thinkermadohickey."
The vast majority of sheeple will accept this without even a complaint.
Humans are finished.
That's because the numbers of Real Men is dwindling. While I'm too old to storm any barricades, I don't see today's gameboy whimps doing it outside the VR world of their fantasies.
And TPTB know this (based on very, very extensive and prolonged market studies).
No storming of barricades will occur until food & hope are gone. So TPTB plan and act accordingly.
Fonz,
Dont know if you check back, sent you a request, dont know what we do from there. Take care out there mate.
This is unpresedented mate, this could be the one that sparks the fuse.
I am not sure how many banks in Cypres will be open tuesday,but suspect some of them will be open with buldoser power,not with door key.
They're getting poked alright.
We're all getting poked.......at least the Europeans are aware that it's a poking.....Americans are just getting date-raped.
Yes. Sovereign date-rape drugs aren't cheap. They cost $85 Billion/Mo. in the US. Less elsewhere, as with all Rx drugs.
fuck you pay me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ydqjqZ_3oc
And to think Greece has yet to banish 150,000 more civil servants through the Troika austerity measures. Should be an interesting mediterranean spring.
http://www.globaltrendanalytics.com/2013/03/potential-cyprus-repercussio...
If you are going to link to ZH, please provide something of actual value.
New paradigm, bitchez.
Time for those in the countries to identify the banksters and utilize mob justice!!!
You really want to steal money from the Russian mob?
I'm seeing a spike in kidnappings of EU officials.
Much larger than that. One needs to familiarize themselves with Gladio A, which was replaced with Gladio B.
Is Cyprus the spark that lit the wick for potential military provocation?
We'll see.
Ex Gladio Equitas Cyprus - Find the nearest banker and do God's work.
That would turn the tables. Go after their families. Are they that greedy to sacrifice their families?
Probably.
Gotta downgrade that probably to a probably not.
i expect the russians dont even want any ransom money..would settle for inflicting pain and degradation by turning them into pre-op lederhosen clad barstaff
Is there an ETF for this?
From Crap, Nothing But Crap..Cyprus Bailout Threatens Market Rally
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cyprus-bailout-threatens-market-rally-1619...
hotubs, windows and motorcycle hit men
This is one of many policy errors going forward worldwide, not just in Cyprus. This is not a one-off. She who panics first, panics best.
The theater is burning. What to do....
Never go to fiat paper theaters in the first place!
"She who panics first, panics best."
LOL, I was going to write that.
"The theater is burning. What to do...."
Get OUT!!!
I see that a part of the rationalization of the theft in Cyprus is that about 50% of the deposits in the banks is Russian mafia money.
Don't know about you but they're not the first people I think of when planning on whom to rob.
There will be dead politicians/banksters over this.
I know where my sympathies lie.
It is a sad thing when we are looking to the Russians to extract some justice for us all. My have times changed.
Not over the long term; remember, the Tsars were the enemies of the Red Shield.
I only meant we do not look to ourselves. That is sad. "Help us, help us, someone, there is no justice, no sherrif in town."
I love it when one crook steals from the other crook. Who is the victim? Just the people caught in the crossfire between the banking wars. I mean currency wars. Where will the Russian "capitalists" put their "money"? Perhaps they should invest in Chinese hog farming. Heard there is a shortage there now.
cyprus is pretty bone dry..average temp is 90 degrees F, has loads of mosquitoes, citrus fruit, goats, ancient ruins and half the country was taken over by turks about twenty or so years ago
oh..and it also blew up its power supply for the whole country when it parked (russsian?) explosives next to its power station a few years ago
Currency Wars just went nuclear
Bingo. And potentially, militarily.
Collapse is like a slow moving train wreck. Is there a bridge out ahead?
Silver down on money confiscation. It seems to have become toxic. Maybe, we get paid to take silver next week. 1.2% decline in 30 minutes.
Gold negative now too. Platinum down $18 an ounce.
How are those free markets working for you?
shut up!!!!! heh
(polishes the ingots again, in case a genie with an army bigger than the pentagon pops out)
niggas may be dumping their pm's while prices are still good knowing they're about to get their greedy little fingers cleaved off at the nubs with their levered lulu and amzn holdings when the giant air pocket holding things up pops this week. Hopefully stocks get slammed enough that margin calls roll through the system in a chain reaction and finally please finally I can buy some more gold dirt cheap during the epic panicked puke fest... knock on wood.
Wow, that was quick! Obviously the manipulators are anxious to get and stay well ahead of the situation if they can, which so far they have. Lots of Chinese will be loading up on physical gold today!
Markets no longer exist, only manipulations.
Time to load up on Platinum, that's for freaking sure.
Do they really think that anyone with interest in gold will consider the events in Cyprus to be a sign of strenght for fiat, fake, fraud, fiction, fantasy, fractional-reserve debt-note toilet paper? We'll just buy physical until we drop.
I'll be loading up (physical Au) on Monday, the fiat is ready to go now. Any of the PMs are a great buy when things are like this.
Platinum is more speculative, but I agree, I own some. And Pt has industrial uses, so if the optimists are right about everything, Pt will do very well in the coming years.
Having followed your musings over time, I also loaded up on Au yesterday before the markets opened, but, alas, the delivery van fell off a bridge into a deep ravine. *sigh*
The point of the beatdown was not to intimidate the metals holders, it was to dissuade anyone else from wanting to shift from currency to metal. By making it unappealing also, they convince most people to remain in Fiat. Yes, most people know nothing but paper. Too bad.
Yes, all Exactly as I predicted on ZH 12 hrs ago. You and I cannot move it, but we can benefit by buying it at subsidized prices while we can.
Only the BRIC+ Central Banks can force the issue, by buying up ALL the bullion on the market at just the right tipping-point moment. E.g., when there are signs of a bank run in a couple of core countries.
I think your are right and wrong at he same time:
"Only the BRIC+ Central Banks can force the issue, by buying up ALL the bullion on the market" it's almost true.
Everything depends on human brains, if they decide that they feel endangered by new moves by ECB then it will change the whole landscape. If only 10 mln out of 7 bln people of this world decided to buy 1 0z of gold tomorrow it would be 300 tons. I bet that at least 300 mln people can afford it without any thoughts about it. And many of them would buy multiple of it so it would be 9000 tons at the minimum. What do you think would happen to paper market then?
Gold is priced in USD's, but right now the price is up. Everything else priced in USD's is down. What is the best investment?
www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
What is more important - nominal change in price or price relative to strengh of the dollar?
Right now silver is negative in nominal terms but is more expensive outside of US than before.
This is simply Negative Nominal Interest Rates (NNIR). I suggested this over a year ago on a much larger scale than a small country. They are on the right track, now.
Ha ha ha!
You are funny.
Nobody would mind putting and losing money in a bank deposit through negative interest. Right?
They could make the lost interest tax deductible and make it really hard to fill out the tax forms to get the deduction. This would create GOOD jobs. It would help the banks increase capital so that the banks could lend more money. If the tax deduction rate is set at 10% and the NNIR is also 10%, most Americans would think this is a wash. We are on the 10 year budget plan where all the pain gets multiplied 10 anyway. This would also increase real estate values.
Now what, Fed (Ex) planes loaded with dollar bundles heading to Europe? Anything is possible!!!
Now what, Fed (Ex) planes loaded with dollar bundles heading to Europe? Anything is possible!!!
How many people in cyprus have guns? I hope you caught on to that. In case you didnt..Obama wants your guns, so he can take your money.
More to the point, how many pissed-off Russians have (or soon will have) a gun at the poker table?
I'm just speculating here, but I'd bet that if they vote in favor of this illegal confiscation, the average lifespan of the typical Cypriot politician is going to decrease substantially.
Russian bailout and military base installation I think is likely.
If they pass the depositor haircut, that place is going ICE-9.
Heh, the Russian mafia doesn't need any stinkin' guns. Google "russian mafia white death". They can kill banksters with anything.
He already took your money via the payroll tax increase in the fiscal cliff. He just didn't grab enough of it to satisfy his keynesian hunger. As for your guns, he'll grab them too, incrementally, like your money. Good luck trying to find ammo at WM, its all gone except the 12's and 20's.
Ah, they still get ammo in. It's the same lesson the Cypriots will learn when their banks eventually open...be the first in line, and you get what you came for. I snagged 200 rounds of .45 ACP and 2 bricks of .22 last week. The fifth guy in line? Not so lucky.
.
Deposits below €100k will be taxed 6.75%, and those above at 9.9%
Due to a "system error" all accounts were shown to have exactly 100k at the time of assessment and so nothing happened.
Devious plan. It cannot fail.
Getting caught on a busted flush draw and a really bad raise, leaves one to wonder if folding was not a option...?
ugh
this is a puerile analyis from a banking only "numbers game" perspective
a) the reason the loans on the two shitty cypriot banks balance sheets are bad is because they were fraudulently made
b) the solution being proposed is akin to a judge sentecing a rape victim to "being guilty by "virtue" of being there at the time"
c) as with the greeks, it is the germans and the french banks who are guilty of vendor financing unaffordable infrastructure and military projects in greece and then bankrupting greece; cyrpus lent money to greece and got buried by the german and french banks via the troika
d) the europeans are putting up zero funds to bail out cyprus; they are asking for money up front from cyprus in order to lend it right back to them..this is illegal, stupid and immoral
e) if cyprus cannot prosecute the perpetrators of the laon fraud then it should not be in europe; if europe is going to proscute cypriot depositors then it should go after the corruption and stench emanating from the activities of german and french banks in greece AND the money laundering activities of the cyrpiot banks
f) just because bond holders have CAC's, what makes europe think that depositors (first ranking secured depositors) of the good banks should be liable for the activites of the shitty banks? this beggars belief and thank you very fucking much henry paulson and gordon brown for creating the precendent
the solution
fail the two shitty banks that have been "guilty" of money laundering russian funds; penalise the depositors of the shitty banks and leave the others alone
OR
if this is not possible, convert the depositors into "at risk" market investments (like gold) with a new liability equal to the value of the amount that needs to be written down to make the books look like they balance
you cannot prosecute ALL cyrpiot bank depositors en masse because some idiot civil servants in europe think thye are smart, and the whole of a country needs ot be taught a lesson
this smacks of laziness and arrogance "we can't be bothered to get to the truth via audit trails and criminal prosecutions, because we only need them for their bath towels and beaches"
bunch of pricks...
That about sums it up. It's fucked up.
Very well done sir . I have been pointing to this as well . This is a legal problem that they are trying to fix by financial means . Brain surgery using carpentry tools - excellent choice if one is trying to save money and time .
Haha. Maybe the EU bankers needed some Fast Cash to cover a Margin Call.
What it does is it completely destroys trust and confidence. Once those are lost, there's no going back.
"My reputation, I've lost my precious reputation." -- Iago, Othelllo
Baby steps. You float something outrageous, like a shoe bomb. Now everyone takes their shoes off. Now underwear. Now a toner cartridge. Meanwhile, most people say, "at least this makes us safer." Obama is our savior, so I'm sure he was correct in robo-signing the Patriot Act extension. Of course you should be able to search people at the border, even without suspicion because we don't want another 9/11. I guess it's OK if it is within 200 miles of our border.
If you're not doing anything wrong, you have nothin to fear.
nothing wrong; unless that is you're a cypriot who just lost 6.75% of a 25,000 euro deposit that took fifteen years to save to send their kid to the european mainland or the UK
Government is good. Private money is bad. We believe.
in an unintended stroke of genius nato will prevent one euro nation from attacking another but in the age of globalized criminal enterprise masquerading as free enterprise there are a number of real russian mobsters who may have a say in the future of the euro through the cyprus back door. putin may bail them out with a windfall from an increase in gas prices after they exact some revenge upon the eurozone with time honored russian mob protocol aided by the kgb fomenting euro wide bank runs and populist violence. fragmenting euroland and the euro would make russia the tsar of europe as the region's natgas bitch.
I can see the revival of the Baader-Meinhof gang in Germany and the Red Army Faction in Italy
financed by the KGB to attack EU assets and officials.
Awesome. And, believable.
Disagree. Expand your horizon from the regional to the global. The local and regional battles (hot or cold, overt or clandestine) are always waged with a Global strategic intent.
The global feudal war is between the Big 3. Actually, between the NWO-driven US and Russia & China. The EU and the Euro are means to an end for both sides.
gold silver
going to get spanked today..
the peasants must be shown
the error of thei "physical holding" ways..
And I will be waiting with loads of dry powder for the inevitable smackdown...even if it happens at 3:42 am.
...and it just keeps getting more interesting-
France's 'Most Powerful Lawyer' Found Dead Near His Private Island Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com#ixzz2NqvCZ47K don't know if this has anything to do with anything else but it wouldn't surprise me if it did.His body was found ... floating near the island.
What, no cement slippers? Could it really be he offed himself?
Oopsie-doodle. Might see more of this when mobsters and Mr. Putin decide to settle a few scores.
Or, it could have been a tragic accident.
Was he midnight body surfing in a business suit?
roarrrrrrrrr (by someone who has just had enough of the corruption?)