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FX Market Opens, EUR Hammered, CHF Bid; S&P To Open -30pts
As Citi's Steven Englander suggested earlier, the developments in Cyprus will lead to EUR selling and USD, CHF, GBP, NOK and SEK buying (in that order). He adds, the issue is whether to believe that the Cyprus levy on depositors is one-off, but depositors and investors elsewhere could easily see this as another in a string of ‘one-offs’ and react badly. The risk-return to depositors in countries with weak banking systems may not favor taking the risk that Cypriot banking system was so unique that such a levy would never be considered elsewhere. The levy on deposits ostensibly covered by deposit insurance may also undermine confidence in weak banks. The question is whether this becomes a full-blown crisis or a mini-crisis. For now, as FX markets open, it appears EURJPY is getting hammered (from 124.47 close to 121.6) implying S&P futures will open down around 30 points. We are sure Abe is watching closely...
Given the element of surprise, it is probably the case that euro zone policymakers will not have concrete measures prepared to convince depositors elsewhere that this will never happen again. So it seems likely in the first instance some resurgence of tail risk will re-appear and that there is a risk that we could see a downward spike in the euro and significant backing up of spreads.
EURUSD has opened and is -140 pips for now...
and CHF is bid...
and all that good jawboning by Carney gone dow the drain... as GBP bid too...
the question is will the Swissie bid on Europe's risk flare recouple the S&P 500 with reality once again... as it did after theItalian election...
and of course everyone's favorite USDJPY...
Leaving us asking 'Is This It?' as a terrible case of deja vu comes over the market once again...
or this?
or perhaps more appropriately this?
Charts: Bloomberg
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If Cypriots spoke Spanish, they could call their deposit freeze a 'corralito.'
The EU has gone Argentine on us. Just like the Vatican.
Chew on that, bItCHeZ.
Quick, someone dress up Dick Bove's cadaver, so he can tell us it's all peachy, swell, keen.
when did he die?
Sh. Don't tell him.
Every little ting, gonna be all right.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJd21z7T99g
I am very curious how gold will react. It's either going to get hammered down to $1,560 again or it's going to $1,619. .... I am just afraid of an excuse to hit it down big time.
gold will be up tomorrow. I don't care if the dollar skyrockets. they will both be up. GLD may have to issue more shares to keep up with the demand for pieces of paper...
I plan on donating 100 oz. of silver Wood Bisons to my farm's lake bottom upon delivery.
Ya Gatta Love These Fecking BankSters ...
They Have All Our Paper Fiats On Their HARD-DRIVES, And Can Do Whatever The Fuck They Want With It ...
And The FEDi Has Most Of The Worlds CB's GOLD Burried Under an NYC Street (Just TRY And Get It Back...) ...
All Will Soon Learn That GOLD $50K Is Not That Far Off ...
Expect negative interest rates...like take 10% of your deposits. Everyone expecting bond rates to skyrocket can forget it. Getting zero% is a great return in a deflation...
didn't Goldman recommend buying EURGBP a few days ago?
muppet slaughter continues
After Kevin sobers up from the St. Paddy’s all-nighter, he’ll be buying EUR to bring it back up.
S&P down 30??? I think you mean Dow down 30...PPT now working over the weekends too. This market doesnt look like it wants to fall over anything.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-12/goldmans-stolper-says-go-long-e...
TRIPLE LINDY HEADFAKE...
~~~
Those fucking jews prolly engineered this whole shebang...
1. ISSUE 'GO LONG' reco [to muppets]
2. Haircut Cyprus 'savers'
3. All Hilarity ensues
4. Cover PUTS & go long Euro during panic
5. Hire the PRICEY clown act for Solomon's bar mitzvah [& lavish LasVegasDave a BONUS for cleaning the pool]...
er...duh.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/03/16/forced-loans-they-can-take-you-money-giving-govt-bonds/
Gold popped at the opening -- $1600+
it will do the opposite of what you expect
So expect the opposite, Bitchez !!!
Limit down!!! Followed by bank runs!! Well played EU!! Well Played!!
We demand the deer in headlights!!!
Sorry, the homeless people ate venison last night.
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/drag...
I can't think of a clearer confirmation that this is the time to convert any cash you might have in ANY bank and convert it into metals. So given that, if the best form of insurance against the oligarchical thievery that just occurred in Cyprus goes DOWN in price, I'll take that as a gigantic gift.
Only if it is HEAVY METAL
National Socialist Black Metal?
Hah, anyone else singing along ... ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2_gOpU0eWU
Regards,
Cooter
Long swastika rounds.
Only if it is HEAVY METAL
What happens to the "cash" I have stashed in a Paypal account? It normally goes to pick up a few PM trinkets now and then. Their lack of a bank charter could come in handy? ...or not?
I wanna rape your gold after this all collapses.
It doesn't matter what gold does.
There is no doubt in my mind that I should keep buying.
If it drops, I'll buy more. I bought recently at about the current price so for now I'm done with shopping unless the price becomes significantly cheaper - then I'd go out of my way to buy more.
Today I expect it to jump to at least $1,610.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100023412/tomorrow-cypr...
Heh..
Right this very second would be a good time to put your hands on your current fiat currency, as it's physical value is about to quadruple.
This is the ONLY time fiat currency has any fungible value, and it DOES NOT last very long.
US will feel this big time.
Lotso fiat gonna move in a fuckin hurry..
thing of it iz yah niggers gonna pay us bankstas come hell or high water.. don't git it fucked up
Every little ting, gonna be all right.
~~~
Turn dat frown upside down, Mon...
Will this be seen as gold positive???
Time to Cyp-RIOT.
He who sells first....
Ben will protect us...sure
When you get zero interest, why leave it in the bank when this could happen. Deposit Insur or not.
From a game theory perspective, don't the banks hold the upper hand to the ECB? The ECB is threatening to cut liquidity lines to Cypriot banks. Personally, I'd call the ECB out on their bluff -- no way they'd allow the contagion that would come from that.
I agree, but you know behind the curtain someone has a gun to their head.
"I play chicken, with the train"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUPK9z59yUc
I wouldn't be surprised if the "politicians" come out randomly with "positive spin" headlines to cause spikes in these markets to burn any shorts. That's what usually happens.
Cue Europe-wide "Short selling bans" tomorrow.......
Never short positive rhetoric.
that's what they usually do
+1
It's pretty hard to spin "We chose to screw depositors rather than the politically connected debt risktakers."
The level of understanding will permeate the next stubborn layer, even if decision makers pull back from the plan by Wednesday. They've revealed the next in line to lose after all state-owned collateral has been pledged.
It is also revealing that this drastic action came before meaningful budget and public spending cuts.
Air pocket, Bitches.
Don't worry Kevin Bacon is on crowd control:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro
Thank you sir, may I have another?
"Assume the position"
youtube.com/watch?v=qdFLPn30dvQ
Assume the postion folks, it's coming.
Here ya go... Fraternity Paddle
I was in that fuckin fraternity until Douglas C Neidermeyer blackballed me. His father was in the infantry.
Don't feel bad. He was killed by his own troops in Vietnam ;-)
Beat me to it :-)
"Nobody could have seen this coming."
I bought TVIX on Friday .... soon CNBC will be offering me Cramer's slot.
In the words of Viggo Mortesen's character in Eastern Promises, "Stay away from people like me."
My condolences.
Does that mean you will have to wear a penis head mask?
I sold my tvix position Wednesday. Good luck it should double in a week if not tomorrow.
My Big Fat Greek Wedding has given way to
My Big Fat Cypriot Assfucking
Singaporean and Swiss bankers must have chuckled to themselves over the weekend, perhaps UAE bankers as well.
Next week is going to be a busy one for them.
Zorba the Greek(ed)
"All your asset are belong to us."
Reminds me of an article written by Cullen Roche (of Pragmatic Capitalism), in which he suggested using private sector funds to pay for public sector debts, but (annoyingly), I can't seem to find it at the moment. I originally saw it over on BusinessInsider, but their search function is as bad as their journalism... and integrity.
"make your time"
Cry havoc and let slip the algos of war...
Welcome back vol.
Wow - we are getting more an more naive here.... Cue "Just kidding" from Bubba in 4.3.2.1........
Germans will roll over in the next few hours, and restore the bank deposits. As with all wars, this was a feint to test the enemy.....
Dont worry Benny and inkjets got the markets back tomorrow...
It doesn't matter, the cow is out of the barn and heading to a neighbor's house and the barn burned down. It'll (trust) have to be rebuilt, which will take years, if ever.
Just remember the 10% luxury tax that congress impossed on yacht builders under Clinton. Every yachtmaker left the country. It's a lot harder to move a company than cash.
Exactly. It doesn't matter whether their Parliament approves the measure or not; the damage is done. In fact, capital flight might be even more severe if they vote to reject...
I doubt it. This is essentially nonevent. They could easily bail out Cyprus but they simply did not want to maintain money laundering mechanism for Russian mafia (and that is what de facto Cyprus banking system is). You will see Russian mafia money flying out of Cyprus and that will be it. I would use a short term dive of Euro as a buying opportunity. When you, people, finally wake up to the reality that this miserable Blog has an agenda. Do not you realize that the so-called "authors" post their garbage here precisely because that nobody else will ever publish it? Not mention that majority of them live on Obama hand outs?
ladies and gentleman Ron Insana...
LOL- poor Ron, I had forgotten about him- Did Cramer finally fire him after he blew EVERY call in his fund? CNBC doesn't even throw him those $325 "Guest Commentator" gigs anymore.....
Yeah, let's not get so jaded that we think NOTHING can make the markets go down. That's just not true. In the last 5 years I have see events in ONE CATEGORY that have the capacity to move markets down big digits in a hurry: a credible threat to the existance of the status-quo TBTF banking system.
Lehman was one. The US debt ceiling debacle was another. This one doesn't rise to that level, at least not yet. But if something like a REAL bank run starts to develop in southern Europe, it WILL rise to that level. TBTF banks know better than anyone how interconnected their existance is. Take down one big one (or even a semi-big one) and they all go down.
That they would do this to the citizens of their own country speaks volumes.
How well armed are Cypriots? You'd think they'd want to call a convention between copper-jacketed lead and banksters' brains after this. We shall see...
Americans have been getting reamed for the last five years, and have not done a thing, what makes you think the Cypriots will? The majority of the sheep don't have a clue.
Most of them are all wallowing in the announcement of the new pope. Wait until tommorrow when their brokers call to tell them all everything is going to shit- again! It won't gel with the euphoria and thus will be ignored and abunch of transfers will be started. "I want to do biz with someone who is optimistic!".
Here is a live link to currency rates. http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/currency-rates/
Sweet drop, 280 pips in under 1 minute. :)
MORE TO COME, BITCHEZ & HOES.
Bill Gross, who runs the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. in Newport Beach, California, said on Twitter that the concern in Cyprus “moves risk-on trade to backseat.”
“Sell euro as well,” he wrote.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-17/europe-braces-for-renewed-turmo...
NOW he tells us ...
as ZH posted, Goldman closed out their spanish long bond position last week. There is going to be a lot of money shoved all over the place now, and you can bet your ass the banks in the big club have already been tipped off. the rest of us will get decapitated trying to follow the puck.
Don't play.
I like ekm's game to pass the time. "which pd got stuck with the hot potato piigs bonds?"
And of less importance dont forget Stolpers call last week : at the absolute high of Euro/GBP to load up!! - must be at least 200 pips offside already.
Fuck, I'd completely forgotten about the Stolper call! That should have been a clear tipoff that this whole Cyprus thing was pending.
Your avitar was made for that comment of yours:)
http://richcash8tradeblog.blogspot.com/2013/03/this-is-high-riskhigh-rew...
It's Waddell & Reed's fault.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-15/vw-preferred-shares-valued-at-1...
Expect *mystery bidders* to put in bids on all assets types, despite investor outflows increasing.
How early can they get Cramer on CNBS tomorrow to reassure his minions?
"Cypriot Banks: Bye Bye Bye!"
"Bartiromo: Friday's Drop Is 'Victory for Bulls'"
In other news, the Party has announced that the weekly chocolate ration is being increased from 25 grams to 20 grams.
chocolate covered
walrus flippers..
It's actually brownish wax...
Time to get the fuck out of Dodge when you read:
"We don't need a bailout"
"Problems are exaggerated"
"Everything is FIXED!" (This applies to BOEING to)
"One time event"
"You are protected"
" We are not considering filing bankruptcy".
you forgot to italicize "not"
1000 Euro limit on withdrawls in Italy now. Soon it will be reduced to 500 Euros. And then the ATMs run out.
Should have kept your money in gold and silver - like the Vatican.
It was EUR 3,500 in Cyprus before this bailout incident. :)
Won't disclose the bank, but they're decent.
Actually, it's down to 300 Euros now in Milan.....CIAO BITCHEZ
E300 per what? Day? Each time?
Daily limit probably.
Such is the life of peasants. :)
I'm really torn about whether the Runinn' Debt Rebels of Cyprus deserve an at large bid, even though their Russian front line has stood tall for them all year with lots of hard board work and plenty of steals. :)
Financial "Battle of Chosin Resevoir." Chesty Puller famously blurted out when US Army Artillery saved his entire division from annihilation "i don't you guys are but i won't bother thanking you later." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chesty_Puller
Also
"We've been looking for the enemy for some time now. We've finally found him. We're surrounded. That simplifies things."
Japanese central bank : print MOAR!!!!!!!!
Someone kidnap Dimon and Fedex his worthless ass to Cyprus.
Meanwhile, if I were Angie 'Forty Percent' Merkel, I'd lay on a few extra night watchmen at the Deutschland embassy in Cyprus ...
USPS "Priority" would probably be more appropriate.
That's an even better idea. +1
Nope; UPS ground.
(No weekend delivery...)
lulz Slow boat to Cyprus<
Put him on a NorthKo missile. We can test our defenses.
Remember, toxic packages cost more to ship !
BTFD
The spin... all money will now flow to US and higher highs are coming.
the dollar will rip
Maybe, but fundamentally the dollar is the worst of all.
The truth:
Overpropped markets correct at least -15%...
Hang the bankers. All of em.
I agree!!
oh wait.. please do not hang me
Cyprus banks now closed till Thursday. Can we get April?
Good chance that Spanish, Italian and Greek banks closed tomorrow. The ATMs will have run out in any case. Welcome to fraudulent fiat finances.
Looks like most of the money is heading to Singapore & Hong Kong right now. Euro has lost about 1% to these currencies.
Lots of wierd price bouncing going on with the Euro and South African currency.
Are our rulers this arrogant and stupid? Hubris then madness?
Yes and Yes.
Just a few more hours until market open here ... my guess is the whole system is going to chuck a fairly impressive wobbly this week.
Abe needs to Cypriot the savers in Japan, or he will fall behind
What is the appropriate verb-ification of 'Cyprus' anyway? 'Cyprify' maybe? eg 'Abe needs to Cyprify Japanese savers', or 'it's only a matter of time before the govt Cyprifies US bank deposits'.
Perhaps the verb should be "to Cyp" . See similar "to Zip" to reduce in size .
Corzine
/?korzeen/
Verb
Take or seize (someone's property) without authority.
Take (a possession, esp. cash funds )as a penalty and give it to the private treasury.
Synonyms
seize - impound - sequestrate - sequester - condemn - screw
They were Corzined! An Entire country!
The central planners think they have every 'contingency' covered, and it's always some seemingly small Black Swan event like this that blows everything up.
I'm not buying it Yen. A black swan happens on a tuesday morning when Melissa Lee gets trampled by a bunch of traders mad dashing it off the trading floor before the screen goes black and the emergency broadcast system kicks in.
This was calculated, planned and manufactured. they want a certain result and are going to make sure they get it.
I'm not sure the $ gets the boost that people think. I think gold and the metals will get a nice pop up. The dollar has been strong on the back of equity market strength. It's going to to be interesting to see how this thing unfolds.
I'm sure you are correct about the the planning, and calculation parts to some degree. Based on what I've learned from Greece, Spain, Italy, these things can get out of hand in a hurry. When you add the all of the factors together it's pretty scary.
YC, I just popped over to a site and got some Au; I think you may be right.
It's still cheaper than a while back.
Now I'll wait for the markets to open.
***********
Update:
Bad news, the shipment crashed into the ocean. All is lost.
You have it exactly backwards. The dollar will get a boost from the run into Treasuries. If the S&P falls, gold will fall with it as large investors either move to raise cash to cover short debts, or to prep to buy the dip.
Either way, the explosive move for gold you see in the offing is just so much wishful thinking.
This said, if contagion begins to spread, and if the ATM stories in Italy are accurate, then get some powder dry, when gold dips, there will be a chance to get in.
The ECB/IMF types knew this would happen, that's why they agreed to close the banks Monday during the Friday meeting. It may be odiuos by design: let litle sh*t Cyprus go Iceland. The Cypriot dongleberry opens @ 1000 to One Euro and the Russians have the run of the place, gas and all. But, the Russians have to fund themselves. If you were Putin would you pay Brussels 10B Euros for Cyprus?
If you were Putin would you pay Brussels 10B Euros for Cyprus?
Hmm...when you are about t lose a strategically important base for naval affairs in the Med (Syria going tits up) Cyprus might be cheap at €10b....
but that little Jewess Mila Kunis told me to get into stawcks
I had to wikipedia that one, another amazing coincidence
The miserable bigot with a Nazi name is back...
But it's easier to bear as markets are crashing. Otherwise on an up day it'd slightly bother me.
that's why i love CNBC
http://www.businessinsider.com/mila-kunis-just-moved-from-cash-into-stocks-2013-3?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheMoneyGame+(The+Money+Game)
The Onion, right?
I mean, whoin their right mind...
S&P open down 30? Nah, they will just get the PPT in early for work instead
They can't effect much after the huge loss from sequester.... 2%? Right ?
S&P futures down 1.1% already and still dropping.
I just went to the ATM to show my support! Going to invest in tequilla... liquid Gold!
i buy 2 cases of Bourbon every month......and i always hear the guys in the back laugh when i walk out the door
Now, that is a superb way to invest for the apocalypse. Though I recommend you get the best Scotch you can find for yourself. Think of it as gold vs silver.