FX Market Opens, EUR Hammered, CHF Bid; S&P To Open -30pts

Tyler Durden's picture




 

As Citi's Steven Englander suggested earlier, the developments in Cyprus will lead to EUR selling and USD, CHF, GBP, NOK and SEK  buying (in that order). He adds, the issue is whether to believe that the Cyprus levy on depositors is one-off, but depositors and investors elsewhere could easily see this as another in a string of ‘one-offs’ and react badly. The risk-return to depositors in countries with weak banking systems may not favor taking the risk that Cypriot banking system was so unique that such a levy would never be considered elsewhere. The levy on deposits ostensibly covered by deposit insurance may also undermine confidence in weak banks. The question is whether this becomes a full-blown crisis or a mini-crisis. For now, as FX markets open, it appears EURJPY is getting hammered (from 124.47 close to 121.6) implying S&P futures will open down around 30 points. We are sure Abe is watching closely...

 

 

Given the element of surprise, it is probably the case that euro zone policymakers will not have concrete measures prepared to convince depositors elsewhere that this will never happen again. So it seems likely in the first instance some resurgence of tail risk will re-appear and that there is a risk that we could see a downward spike in the euro and significant backing up of spreads.

 

EURUSD has opened and is -140 pips for now...

 

and CHF is bid...

 

and all that good jawboning by Carney gone dow the drain... as GBP bid too...

 

the question is will the Swissie bid on Europe's risk flare recouple the S&P 500 with reality once again... as it did after theItalian election...

 

and of course everyone's favorite USDJPY...

 

Leaving us asking 'Is This It?' as a terrible case of deja vu comes over the market once again...

 

or this?

 

or perhaps more appropriately this?

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:12 | 3338902 machineh
machineh's picture

If Cypriots spoke Spanish, they could call their deposit freeze a 'corralito.'

The EU has gone Argentine on us. Just like the Vatican.

Chew on that, bItCHeZ.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:12 | 3338917 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Quick, someone dress up Dick Bove's cadaver, so he can tell us it's all peachy, swell, keen.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:14 | 3338934 csmith
csmith's picture

when did he die?

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:18 | 3338952 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Sh.  Don't tell him.

Every little ting, gonna be all right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FJd21z7T99g

 

 

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:36 | 3339030 flacon
flacon's picture

I am very curious how gold will react. It's either going to get hammered down to $1,560 again or it's going to $1,619. .... I am just afraid of an excuse to hit it down big time. 

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:44 | 3339062 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

gold will be up tomorrow. I don't care if the dollar skyrockets. they will both be up. GLD may have to issue more shares to keep up with the demand for pieces of paper...

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:21 | 3339234 bonderøven-farm ass
bonderøven-farm ass's picture

I plan on donating 100 oz. of silver Wood Bisons to my farm's lake bottom upon delivery.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:27 | 3339262 BaBaBouy
BaBaBouy's picture

Ya Gatta Love These Fecking BankSters ...

They Have All Our Paper Fiats On Their HARD-DRIVES, And Can Do Whatever The Fuck They Want With It ...

And The FEDi Has Most Of The Worlds CB's GOLD Burried Under an NYC Street (Just TRY And Get It Back...) ...

All Will Soon Learn That GOLD $50K Is Not That Far Off ...

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:57 | 3339401 cocoablini
cocoablini's picture

Expect negative interest rates...like take 10% of your deposits. Everyone expecting bond rates to skyrocket can forget it. Getting zero% is a great return in a deflation...

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:08 | 3339454 Comay Mierda
Comay Mierda's picture

didn't Goldman recommend buying EURGBP a few days ago?

muppet slaughter continues

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:12 | 3339474 Manthong
Manthong's picture

After Kevin sobers up from the St. Paddy’s all-nighter, he’ll be buying EUR to bring it back up.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 18:05 | 3339927 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

S&P down 30??? I think you mean Dow down 30...PPT now working over the weekends too. This market doesnt look like it wants to fall over anything.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:34 | 3339549 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

TRIPLE LINDY HEADFAKE...

~~~

Those fucking jews prolly engineered this whole shebang...

1. ISSUE 'GO LONG' reco [to muppets]

2. Haircut Cyprus 'savers'

3. All Hilarity ensues

4. Cover PUTS & go long Euro during panic

5. Hire the PRICEY clown act for Solomon's bar mitzvah [& lavish LasVegasDave a BONUS for cleaning the pool]...

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 17:03 | 3339700 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

er...duh.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 21:30 | 3339971 Ignatius
Ignatius's picture

Gold popped at the opening -- $1600+

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:53 | 3339111 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

it will do the opposite of what you expect

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:56 | 3339132 Hulk
Hulk's picture

So expect the opposite, Bitchez !!!

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:12 | 3339211 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Limit down!!!  Followed by bank runs!!  Well played EU!!  Well Played!!

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:27 | 3339286 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

We demand the deer in headlights!!!

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:41 | 3339593 machineh
machineh's picture

Sorry, the homeless people ate venison last night.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:10 | 3339202 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

I can't think of a clearer confirmation that this is the time to convert any cash you might have in ANY bank and convert it into metals.  So given that, if the best form of insurance against the oligarchical thievery that just occurred in Cyprus goes DOWN in price, I'll take that as a gigantic gift.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:18 | 3339235 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Only if it is HEAVY METAL

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:51 | 3339637 GOSPLAN HERO
GOSPLAN HERO's picture

National Socialist Black Metal?

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 17:15 | 3339735 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Hah, anyone else singing along ... ?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2_gOpU0eWU

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 20:07 | 3340356 Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Long swastika rounds.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:18 | 3339236 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

Only if it is HEAVY METAL

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 17:07 | 3339715 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

What happens to the "cash" I have stashed in a Paypal account?  It normally goes to pick up a few PM trinkets now and then.  Their lack of a bank charter could come in handy?  ...or not?

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 17:50 | 3339870 Jugdish
Jugdish's picture

I wanna rape your gold after this all collapses.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:01 | 3339411 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

It doesn't matter what gold does.  

There is no doubt in my mind that I should keep buying.

If it drops, I'll buy more. I bought recently at about the current price so for now I'm done with shopping unless the price becomes significantly cheaper - then I'd go out of my way to buy more.

Today I expect it to jump to at least $1,610.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:46 | 3339365 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/matspersson/100023412/tomorrow-cypr...

 

Heh..

 

Right this very second would be a good time to put your hands on your current fiat currency, as it's physical value is about to quadruple.

This is the ONLY time fiat currency has any fungible value, and it DOES NOT last very long.

US will feel this big time.

Lotso fiat gonna move in a fuckin hurry..

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:22 | 3339503 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

thing of it iz  yah niggers gonna pay us bankstas come hell or high water.. don't git it fucked up

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:27 | 3339533 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Every little ting, gonna be all right.

~~~

Turn dat frown upside down, Mon...

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:39 | 3339336 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Will this be seen as gold positive???

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:12 | 3338921 SHEEPFUKKER
SHEEPFUKKER's picture

Time to Cyp-RIOT. 

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:49 | 3339088 max2205
max2205's picture

He who sells first....

Ben will protect us...sure

When you get zero interest, why leave it in the bank when this could happen. Deposit Insur or not.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:46 | 3339074 ar01
ar01's picture

From a game theory perspective, don't the banks hold the upper hand to the ECB? The ECB is threatening to cut liquidity lines to Cypriot banks. Personally, I'd call the ECB out on their bluff -- no way they'd allow the contagion that would come from that. 

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:09 | 3339198 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

I agree, but you know behind the curtain someone has a gun to their head.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 15:33 | 3339309 Matt
Matt's picture

"I play chicken, with the train"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NUPK9z59yUc

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:08 | 3338905 Howdan
Howdan's picture

I wouldn't be surprised if the "politicians" come out randomly with "positive spin" headlines to cause spikes in these markets to burn any shorts. That's what usually happens.

Cue Europe-wide "Short selling bans" tomorrow.......

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:43 | 3339054 EscapeKey
EscapeKey's picture

Never short positive rhetoric.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:23 | 3339518 resurger
resurger's picture

that's what they usually do

+1

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 17:55 | 3339888 grid-b-gone
grid-b-gone's picture

It's pretty hard to spin "We chose to screw depositors rather than the politically connected debt risktakers."

The level of understanding will permeate the next stubborn layer, even if decision makers pull back from the plan by Wednesday. They've revealed the next in line to lose after all state-owned collateral has been pledged.

It is also revealing that this drastic action came before meaningful budget and public spending cuts.     

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:10 | 3338907 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Air pocket, Bitches.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:11 | 3338916 gimli
gimli's picture

Don't worry Kevin Bacon is on crowd control:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDAmPIq29ro

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 14:59 | 3339148 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Thank you sir, may I have another?

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:58 | 3339575 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

"Assume the position"

youtube.com/watch?v=qdFLPn30dvQ

Assume the postion folks, it's coming.

Sun, 03/17/2013 - 16:59 | 3339681 geekgrrl
geekgrrl's picture

Here ya go...  Fraternity Paddle

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