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Things That Make You Go Hmmm... Such As Not Understanding The Bull Case Right Now
The relativity relationship that Grant Williams discusses in his latest 'Things That Make You Go Hmmm' newsletter is far simpler to understand than that proposed by Einstein (and far, far less likely to win him any prizes of a scientific nature, but we can live with that). Ladies and gentlemen, we are proud to unveil to you, for the first time:
'Williams's Theory of Disconnectivity'
After long and painstaking research, I have distilled my theory down to the following equation:
OS+ps2?R
where OS is 'official statistics', ps2 is 'political spin' (squared) and R is 'reality'.
We must be missing something because, try as we might, we are having a hard time understanding the bull case right now. It seems to be predicated largely on the thesis that we should buy things 'because they are going up'. (Japan is the poster child for this curious strategy, as those terrible results from Sony demonstrated a few weeks ago. Despite them, Sony stock is back to where it was before the company laid out, in no uncertain terms, just how poorly it was doing. In every single division.)
Yes, we understand that, in nominal terms, money printing is good for stocks 'just because'; but sooner or later, reality is going to reassert itself (painfully, we might add). The projected growth in profits that is being forecast for 2013 doesn't tally with the projected growth (or lack of it) in GDP over the same period, and so something has got to give — a fact pointed out beautifully by Rick Santelli and his guest this past week in this video.
Although the examples we could use to illustrate this discrepancy are approximately infinite right now, we will confine my selections to a few areas where the evidence is just too overwhelming to really leave anybody in any doubt...
Let's finish by applying some real-world values to our variables, with Cyprus as the example:
OS: €5.8bn will be stolen (yes, stolen) from savers in Cypriot banks.
+
ps2: (WSJ, March 1, 2013): Cyprus' newly appointed Finance Minister Michalis Sarris Friday rejected talk of depositors taking losses as part of the country's bailout as he took control of the country's purse strings following Sunday's presidential elections.
"There is nothing more foolish than talking about a deposits haircut," Mr. Sarris told journalists
(Bloomberg): When asked if a deposit assessment could be ruled out for future rescues, [Olli] Rehn said in an interview: “It can and there is no concrete case where it should be considered.”
?
R: This will not be the last time depositors are screwed, and it will lead to additional capital flight elsewhere in the EU. The Europeans have not only not solved their problems, they are well along in the process of painting themselves into a corner where 'whatever it takes' and 'everything we are capable of' are at last proven to be two completely different things.
But that's an equation for another day...
Full Things That Make You Go Hmmm note below...
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Things that make you say...
Bullshit!
I'm no Einstein but one think is very clear to me .... nothing makes me go hmmmmm anymore ...
Breaking - It's gettin' real in the Chase bank parking lot...
NBC Southern California - 33 minutes ago
my credit card balance aint showing zero
I thought Einstein stole that E=mc2 shit too: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/1999/nov/11/rorycarroll
But I guess maybe he didn't see it? Either way, fairy tales or not, I smell witches.
(Reuters) - JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) has won the dismissal of a nationwide investors' lawsuit accusing the largest U.S. bank of conspiring to drive down silver prices.
Wow, I'm really shocked-not!!!
This is a simple distortion in space/time caused the extreme concentration of dark energy in the JPM central offices. The machines were sending out the balances the customers will have next year after JPM steals everything everywhere. Once the machines are moved to more distant locations the errors should stop.
Grants's equation is incorrect since political spin is now coming from traditional politicians, the MSM, and the central bankers. The PS variable should be cubed, not squared. No need to thank me for the scientific clarifications.
“We must be missing something”
To my way of looking at it, the only thing left to complete that formula as a transform into a multidimensional Bernankezoid is divide the whole thing by zero.
Hummmmm... It only gets BITTER from here...
Hmmmmmmm? ... I love Zero Hedge because the only way I can cope with the social realities dominated by the banksters' frauds is to cultivate or hone my macabre sense of humour, and Zero Hedge provides me with ample material or whetstones with which to do that!
80085.
yes fairy tales, it seems "reality" these days has made fairy tales look downright...well....realistic.......................
The suggestion in the article to watch the Jeremy Grantham interview was a good one. It was an eye-opener at what such a respected individual really thinks about what's going on. The viewer will have to endure the insufferable Charlie Rose, but that's the admission fee.
We'll all be rich, hooray. Wait a minute, now that I'm rich why does everything cost so much more than when I was poor?
Chase bank customers complaining of finding zero balance in their accounts on twitter right now.
That's making me go 'hmmm...'.
interesting...
http://news.cnet.com/8301-1009_3-57575024-83/chase-denies-hack-behind-su...
the twitter feed shows it's up and running now
hey fonz i thought you were going to bed.................too much cash under the mattress eh?????
.
The bull case, in a nutshell: The wheels are coming off everywhere, except the U.S. economy is growing a little.
Yes, the wheels are still on but the cart is, unfortunately, picking up downhill speed and heading for a Wiley Coyote Grand Canyon leap...
This should make you go hmmmmolyshit..........
http://shadesofthomaspaine.blogexec.com/index.php/entry/complete-post-of...
uh-oh- according to the FBI I'm a terrorist because I buy "guns and ammo out of season"- give me a fucking break. also "paying with cash" for anything puts you on their shit list. and it looks like watching snuff videos at internet cafes is off my to-do list.
$60 billion is the budget for Homeland Security and $27 billion for the war on drugs. They need lots of terrorists to justify that level of spending.
Of course, everyone on Zero Hedge is a terrorist for not getting their news from CNBS.
cold war on the american citizen. gota give them something to do
The Watchlist looked legit to me. Reasonable IMHO. People should watch & respond to meth-lab and bomb-making dudes. I don't see overreaching Gov't here. Just saying.
Using cash for large transactions?
Wait a minute. Ben gives us all lots of cash, but if we use it we're suspects.
Makes perfect sense.
Meh...PT Barnum said it best...
There's a sucker born every minute.
Meanwhile as the battle for the Med basin continues, Syria has struck positions inside Lebanon and threatened Jordan after the training camp revelations leaked over past week or so. The US is dropping resistance to arming the rebels.And the Syrian Opposition picks a new leader...from Dallas TX. Israel planes are dropping flares over Lebanon as they ramp up for escalation.
Syrian opposition group the Syrian National Coalition has chosen an interim prime minister today, after an hours-long meeting in Istanbul. Ghassan Hitto has been elected as the interim prime minister of the Syrian National Coalition, officials told the Hürriyet Daily News in a phone interview. Hitto, who has lived in the U.S. state of Dallas for decades where he has worked as an IT executive, was chosen as prime minister from 12 candidates.
Syrian conflict spread in earnest Monday, March 18, when the Syrian Air Force conducted bombing runs over Syrian rebel jumping-off bases inside Lebanon and border valleys used for smuggling men and arms into Syria. Syrian jets and helicopters fired four rockets at targets inside Lebanon Monday, sparking the condemnation of the international community, who called the violation an “attack on Lebanon’s sovereignty.
U.S. drops opposition to others arming Syria rebels.
Lebanon’s state-run news agency says Israeli warplanes have violated Lebanese airspace
Russia sees 'no concession' in US missile defense move
As US drone monopoly frays, Obama seeks global rules
What could possibly go wrong...
Ghassan Hitto - aka "CIA/Mossad's Bitch-In-Waiting"
Just for good measure:
US flies B-52 bombers over S. Korea
Why shouldn't the B-52 BUFF fly over S. Korea? It started flying during the original war - seems like old times sake to have it still around - "Bombed ya once, ready to do it again."
...US State of Dallas...
Whole damn state - no wonder they have such bitchin' cheerleaders...
Create the problem ... provide the 'solution' ... did the same thing with nukes ... oh, you don't want to join our NPT? ... well, we'll sanction your ass into the 17th century... you ... you rotten ... terrists!!!
Can see it all coming a mile off. Cuntries operating UCAVs will have to be deemed responsible global mass-murderers to be allowed to murder as they please ... no terrists allowed!!! The whole basis of such an agreement is crap, murderers setting up their allotted spy and kill zone. The US just doesn't want the competition to murder the most people, nor to give up its global kill-zones to other up and coming arbitrary State killers. They did the same thing with nukes, made rules between the approved mass killers, and no one else was allowed to become a nuclear power, ... or we'll nuke you ... to prevent a nuclear attack. And all the kiss-arse 'Allies' go along, and is the very excuse used for why Iraq was invaded for no reason ... and all the 'Allies' still went along with that too.
And now with the drones we're entering into a new cycle of utter hypocracy and lick-spittle behaviors, and listening to that murdering little piece of crap in the white house eloquently calling for globalist rules for his drone attack addiction.
Rules the US will flout in 1 nano-second btw, and for which there is no verification or punishment for the USSA.
But the global rules are now necessary because Iran and North Korea have drones. Terrists!!! And of course these rules need teeth, sanctions must follow any global UN decision! And if need be, pre-emptive drone strikes to prevent the possibility of drone strikes by terrists.
And this sort of fucked up logic plays really well on a 20 min PBS Newshour segment, where they'll dissect it and tell you all about why this new global regime for moderating the use of drones makes so much sense. How and why it's overdue, and now is so vitally needed to maintain stability and security in sensitive parts of the world. And how the US has learned so much from the occasional regrettable mistakes it has made, and now it also so needs to rein itself in, for its own good if nothing else. And how it's a no-brainer to have such an overdue global rules-based approach, that can avoid all the past pitfalls, and how we really need to get this accepted at the global level and enacted.
blah blah blah blah blaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhh!!! ...........................
I could write the stupid fucking script myself.
I don't like your model, Reality is at a disadvantage here with PoliticalSpin^2 variable.
Thats what I thought, you'd have to square reality to catch up to political spin.
mr grant, youve given up your independence to work under a name dropping clown who cant see past his nose......................mauldin "economics".....too funny..........
Why would anyone include "Reality" in an economic equation? What kind of man is this Williams? Some kind of lunatic?
?= Lies and or BS
Tyler you'll enjoy this one:
AFP: Crippled Japan nuclear plant hit by power cut http://t.co/kWizyOJlth
Yup, again
I understand Grant.
Just outright saying "the Fed and the people behind it are evil and must be put down with prejudice " won't exactly do wonders for your career. So you crouch your prose, pull your punches. After all, no doubt you have bills to pay: ex wives, kids, IRS, mortgages, bookies, girlfriends/boyfriends etc.
Who wants to disrupt an income stream in this economy.... (certainly no one in Cyprus).
It's important not to seriously threaten the powers that be, else you could find yourself an outcast. John Mauldin, Bill Bonner and Doug Casey (hmmm... all older guys) seem to fall into this category also (appear cutting edge, but not so much as to alienate any potential 'mainstream' clients with $$$ as they pay the bills ...regardless of how they came about their money).
Just nibble around the edges and you too can be an honorary radical & get some zerohedge street credibility while continuing being part of the status quo. I understand, have your cake and eat it too ... it's the american way.
Only your posts are getting stale. If the system sucks then call it out more directly, but please spare us this " jeez, i don't understand how the powers-that-be can think 2 + 2 =5."
Spit it out soldier.
Dear essense, as an honorary radical, whose ability to function as a soldier has been broken by too much time spent worrying about weapons of mass destruction, I will spit out that "EVIL IS ECOLOGICAL."
The problem that the powers-that-be have with repeating their big lies often enough is that they too start to believe them!
Repeating "2 + 2 =5" enough times drives those repeating it insane also.
The fancy name for the study of "evil" is ponerology. I think that too many people get STUCK with superficial psychology, rather than moving on to attempt to understand the evolutionary ecology which selected for that "evil," which applies especially to the psychology in ponerology.
Almost all of us are drowning in pop culture (since one has to work hard to avoid it otherwise.) So ... sorry to indulge in the fizzy pop culture, but there was a Disney Movie, that was a kind of remake of "Sorcerer's Apprentice" http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0963966/ which had what is typical to our times, namely awesome special effects used to tell the same stupid stories.
When watching its script writing formula work themselves through in that movie, one KNEW, the moment one saw the famous BULL statue in New York, that that movie was going to animate that, and sure enough, it did, in the last scene!
I bring that up only because this article above was playing around with the notions of "The Bull Case" being bizarre, and therefore, I feel that a Disney Movie that animates the New York BULL was kind of appropriate, in the "2 + 2 =5" world, namely, that social reality where banksters' frauds DOMINATE!!!
For anyone who has more time than good sense, I recommend the following discussion, to put some of what I commented above into another overall context:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBkB48zONto
Wash Your Brain - Hollywood Mind Control
That is a two hour conversation with a really good slide show ... That discussion uses typically ironic, and still way too moronic, false fundamental dichotomy notions to discuss more UNITY? Of course, there is no doubt that there is "mind control." And, there is no doubt there is a "war on consciousness." However, this discussion is based on the same old-fashioned false dichotomy ways of understanding things, (and literally lots of wishful thinking interpretation of modern physics.)
My perpetual problem with analysis of psychology is that there tends to never be enough ECOLOGY. Therefore, why "EVIL IS ECOLOGICAL" appears to almost never be understood. Since the psychological analyses have too little ECOLOGY, therefore, all the proposed "solutions" are too superficial! That video was accompanied by interesting images, which make it worthwhile to watch, however, it was yet basically done by reactionary revolutionaries. Within the context of its own analyses, that presentation was quite worthwhile. However, since it does NOT bother understanding why the ecology created problematic psychology, it can not go beyond, to propose actual solutions which address the chronic ecological problems.
In closing, to repeat a classic cliche, while economics is a dismal science, ecology is dismal science squared!
Whats to understand.....It's an entirely manipulated, manufactured, synthetic existence....
One the Wachowski brothers tried to warn us about.
as manufactured as "lana" wachowski's new va-jay-jay?
Well, you know those creative artists...
They're pretty interesting people for sure..
In your equation, the "?" is equal to each individual's IQ--Need I say more!
Well, that equation is way OFF, there is NOT an "=" sign in there anywhere. And, my goodness, I had to solve a math problem to be able to post here. I guess the males didn't. Grrr!
Anyway, here is a better equation based on the above concept:
Assume "R" is "reality", as in reality-based investing, and "PR" is "perceived reality, and IPE is "implied price/earnings
then, where:
R/PR = PE/IPE
one may conclude:
R = PR - (OS + PSsquared)
This allows one to calculate the (OS + PSsquared) inflator.
Squeeky Fromm, Girl Reporter
The bull case : the US is already running a $665 billion deficit for fiscal year 2013, which would mean a $1.46 trillion deficit for the whole year, which would make it the worst deficit in US history YET... and guess what, the ``best case scenario`` for the budgets proposals? Republicans : $4.6 trillion cuts over 10 years Democrats : $700 billion cuts over 10 years... comparing it with $13-14 trillion deficits over 10 years... the republican plan is a joke and I won't even mention the democrats ``plan``.
And yet they keep telling us there's no debt crisis nor there will ever be in the future. LUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUULZ
Attempting to download the above referenced report from Scribd, I was accosted with "Login with Facebook", and then it dawned...
Someday, will even zh set up the conveniences of "Login with Facebook"?
That day, I will look off into the distance...my "rosebud"....FUCK YOU BERNANKE
Reality being that the economy sucks, and the banks are still stealing our money - only outright from depositors now.
Where is that clearing in the forest?
Where is the forest?
How bout some green shoots?
No. The FED has been lying all along.
Check this FinMin clown guy out,
"German FinMin Schaeuble says alternative to the Cyprus deposits levy was bondholders and bank owners paying."
Yeah, no shit, FUCKFACE - that's EXACTLY what should've happened.
Just found an interesting article regarding the lies leading to Cyprus. One paragraph:
There is nothing wrong in principle with depositors bearing risk. However, the modern-day banking system is based on a fiction of bank solvency: depositors are generally led to believe that they are not exposed to any risk. The fact that the banks do actually not have the money to repay all, or even a significant portion of their demand deposit liabilities, is systematically suppressed (this is to say, it is never once mentioned in the mainstream media). Government 'deposit insurance' schemes and the central bank backstop are widely held to guarantee that deposits are indeed safe. Similar to the 'impossibility of a Greek default', this is only true until it isn't anymore.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1284901-the-empire-of-lies-confiscatory-...
Working for an IFA, have been tearing my hair out in frustration at hearing our MD proclaim 'everything is sorted because EZ yields are down', and 'stock markets are incredibly cheap because of P/E's'.
Even when you attempt to argue on these simplistic grounds, the blind refusal to accept evidence that contradicts the bullish case is incredibly annoying. the most difficult bit is disassociating myself with any output....
E=MC2
By using simple algebra we can also restate it as follows:
C (Criminality or Corruption) is equal to the square root of ENERGY (of the stock market) times MANIPULATION (by fed, big banks, specialists)
I am thinking that the main assumptions should be:
1. There are those who are in power
2. Those in power will work solely for their benefit at the expense of everyone and everything else
3. Automation and human control systems have advanced a long way and allows total control of pricing and mainstream opinion
Using the above assumptions, one can put oneself in the position of those in power and then plan out your own actions and see if they match theirs. The problem with us proles is that we:
1. Assume the above assumptions are incorrect because they are anathema to us
2. We have trouble conceiving large numbers
If the market goes up, it is not because it does not make sense. It is because it is the logical thing to do for those who have the power to do it.
The bull case very succintly put is as follows:
1) Printing has worked for 4 years plus, why wont it work now?
2) In the event of any show of equity weakness print more
3) Sell the great rotation to the sheeple get all of them outta bonds and into stocks... milk that last little bit outta 401ks....
The party is winding down, but the fat lady is no where in site yet.....
Can Kicker Academy, R101: Anyone who actually gets robbed by these criminals will take a tax write off for the full amount plus alleged loses, in at least 1 country. To the moon, mAlice! BOHICA dramatic manipulation.