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Guest Post: What's Supposed To Happen, And What Might Happen: 3 Baseline Scenarios

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

What might happen: printing money and issuing propaganda lose their effectiveness.

 
We all know what's supposed to happen in the global economy: we get more of everything: more stuff manufactured, more coal dug up and burned, more "aggregate demand" i.e. insatiable desire for more of everything, more innovation, more wealth, more money printed, more debt taken on to buy more stuff and more education, more tourists occupying more beaches sipping more drinks, more strip malls built, more airports expanded, more jobs created, more taxes collected-- more "growth" of everything, in every way and every day.
 
Beneath this expansive more-of-everything splendor, the power structure is supposed to remain unchanged: a small political-financial Elite holds all the reins of power, a manufacturing-consent propaganda machine (a.k.a. mainstream media) persuades the masses all is well, wealth continues to accumulate in the top 1/10th of 1%, money is printed/created and distributed to the State-financial partnership's fiefdoms and cartels, moderate inflation eats away at the value of wages but makes debt cheaper to service, and the Upper Caste of technocrats continue their well-paid enabling of the Aristocracy's dominance.
 
The dream of tens of millions of young people is to join the Upper Caste of lackeys, factotums, toadies and apparatchiks serving the Aristocracy's cartels and fiefdoms.
 
In sum, the pie of wealth is supposed to expand so fast that the 10% left for the bottom 90% will be enough to satisfy their high expectations of endlessly rising prosperity.
 
That is Baseline Scenario #1: the Status Quo remains as it is, unchanged. This is what's supposed to happen as a result of central bank money-printing and central government borrowing and spending: the Status Quo of endless growth ruled by an Elite will continue on the same trendline it has traced since 1946: more growth, more financialization, more concentration of wealth and political power, more technological innovation, and so on.
 
Baseline Scenario #2 is the center cannot hold, and the Status Quo devolves.Those living through Scenario #2 will not notice any sudden changes; financial, political and geopolitical crises become the background noise to daily life.
 
The changes will be gradual and incremental: things will stop working as well, the homeless population will increase, stores will close, government offices will shorten their hours of operation, streets will remain unrepaired, hours will be cut, benefits will be trimmed, stadiums will no longer be filled during sporting events or musical extravaganzas.
 
There will be less of everything, not more, and a gradual but steady erosion of all "growth" baselines: fewer jobs, lower wages, fewer taxes collected, less profits, fewer retail outlets.
 
Faced with a shrinking pie to plunder and skim, the Aristocracy and its Upper Caste of technocrats will be forced to increase their share of the dwindling national surplus. Taxes and junk fees will rise, squeezing legitimate small enterprises into the informal economy, and the gulf between the Aristocracy/technocrat Upper Caste and the bottom 90% will widen: this can be characterized as the "third-worldization" of developed economies.
 
The disposable income of the top 10% will continue to rise, enabling them to retreat to the security of gated communities and luxury urban highrises, just like in Third-World megalopolises, while the gradual impoverishment of the bottom 90% erodes life outside the protected circles of the Elites and their well-paid worker-bees.
 
Anger and frustration rise, but food stamps, unemployment and transfer payments privatize the social mood: people are paid to stay home and watch TV or otherwise amuse themselves in political isolation. Nothing is sharp enough or drastic enough to spark a politically meaningful response. As long as the bread and circuses are ample, the masses are content to "get the best of what's still around" and go about their business without threatening the top 10%'s dominance of the national surplus.
 
Baseline Scenario #3 is something breaks: perhaps the trigger is a global credit event or a war, or perhaps it is the price of oil spiking on some disruption. The basic dynamic is this: increasingly fragile systems are increasingly vulnerable to sudden disruption and breakdown. On the surface, everything looks secure, until some event unleashes a cascade of unintended consequences.
 
The ultimate driver of Baseline Scenario #3 is diminishing returns: the political-financial Elite will respond as it did in 2008, by printing money to bail out banks and private cartels, by reassuring the masses via the propaganda mills, and so on, but these responses will have lost their initial effectiveness: the saturation of debt and propaganda will have reached 100%.
 
Printing more money and spewing more reassuring propaganda will no longer tamp down the crisis. Rather, the failure of these Status Quo responses will unleash an even more destabilizing crisis.
Baseline Scenario #3 will result when one of a network of highly interconnected systems breaks down, and all the other systems fall in a domino-like cascade of instability.
 
The key dynamic in Baseline Scenario #3 is the standard-issue official responses (print more money and issue more reassuring propaganda) will fail to stem the destabilization, and this failure will unleash an even larger wave of instability and breakdown.
 
Order will eventually be restored, but at a much lower level of wealth and prosperity. Baseline Scenario #3 will be replaced by Baseline Scenario #2--another period of erosion--until structural changes are allowed to reshape the political and financial landscape of power and wealth.
 


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Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

supposed... sounds like a plan...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjILBtXQEKQ&sns=em

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment nasdaq99
nasdaq99's picture

scroll back a few pages on DailyJobCuts.com

 

baseline breakdown in the making.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:32 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

that a pretty depressing site :)
who the fuck makes sites like this?

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment Landotfree
Landotfree's picture

It's a stupid article.  

The system is credit, the system must expanding at an exponential rate or start to collapse.   Eventually, the system will be unable to exponentially growth and the collapse will resume.   After hitting it's peak the system will have to hit it's max potential on the downside, the walking unfunded liabilities will have to be liquidated... eventually rinse and repeat.  

My guess 1-2 billion walking unfunded liabilities will have to go.  

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:20 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

<Trumpets blare>

Here comes Hilsenrath, Here comes Hilsenrath, right down Fed Dove "Jawbone" Lane (or is it Maiden Lane?)...

03-19 17:42: Fed watcher Hilsenrath says I think Fed will be waving the green flag to markets at FOMC Meeting tomorrow

News Headline Summary Fed watcher Hilsenrath says I think Fed will be waving the green flag to markets at FOMC meeting tomorrow, Fed wont try to tamp things down, havn't seen enough positive data yet

 

Buy Zynga, Buy LULU, Buy Facebook & Groupon...

But did you know, the most famous Bernank'd stock of all?

CRM the dot.com v2.0 "stawk" had a very high P/E

And if you ever saw it, you'd note the irrationality

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:37 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The answer to EVERY conundrum is... as always...

~~~

PRINT MORE JOOBUX

[junk away ~ & as you do, kindly drop a comment as to why that assessment isn't 100% true]...

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:32 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Stereotypes don't arise from nothing.  Just ask the Goldbergs, Goldsmiths, Silversteins, and Blankfeins.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 20:56 | Link to Comment strannick
strannick's picture

More shadow banking (repos, reverse repos), more derivatives (CDSs, interest rate swaps), more mark to fantasy bank assets, more bank bailouts, more quantative easing.

More captured regulatory agencies, more talking head regulators and more MSM rationalizations.

More depository confiscations, more curtailment of Constitutions and the rule of law, and more misery.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 20:16 | Link to Comment Esso
Esso's picture

Well, I like you Francis. You seem to always tell it like it is. Doubtful you'll ever get a junk out of me.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:23 | Link to Comment Say What Again
Say What Again's picture

Baseline 4:  The EU Zone blows up

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment stinkhammer
stinkhammer's picture

fuck it dude, let's go bowling

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

no such thing - EU, 27 - eurozone, 17
Like NAFTA, 3 - dollarzone, 87

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:25 | Link to Comment It is a bargin ...
Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Krugman's Scenario: Aliens invade Earth, humanity unites to defeat them, peace in our time, blah blah blah...

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

aliens like in the movies aliens?
or aliens like in Martians attack?

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Mexican astronauts.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:58 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Mexican Austrianauts?

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 20:23 | Link to Comment Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

I, for one, welcome our new alien overlords.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:18 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

aliens that would like to invest in some BONDS...Be nice to them...Smile when they look at you!

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:26 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

guys....
the older we get...
There will be less of everything, not more, and a gradual but steady erosion of all "growth"

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment squid virtuous
squid virtuous's picture

Don't worry, my uncle Shalom has this ultimate set of tools , he'll fix it...

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:30 | Link to Comment Sudden Debt
Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:27 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Baseline 4 : black swan destroys everything.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

Pecking and flapping is that dangerous huh?

I always thought kangaroos were more dangerous than swans

http://m.youtube.com/index?&desktop_uri=%2F#/watch?v=eKf6d0SDv7k

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

All that stuff doesnt happen in high tax environments.

High Tax Environment = More than 12% net taxation per individual.

 

Because anything over 12~13% does not allow for the creation of savings.

 

Right now, In New York atleast , the average worker is taxed over 80% of their income if you count things like sales tax.

How can anyone save anything if they are taxed 80%? 

 

If you earn 65$ an hour and you are in a union.

51% ends up "taxed" or taken from you and shoved into vaporizing "investment funds".

 

someone earning  65$ an hour in the working class (the class that actually produces things, not govt), will only see about 28~ 32$ dollars an hour.

Factor in that they comute to work, pay tolls, have to eat.

Really that only saves them about 10~ 12$ a day in "disposable income".

Thats about enough for a working man to take his wife out to dinner twice a month at a medium class resteraunt.

NOW

Throw in 2 kids, school.

 

Now the worker has to borrow just to live.

 

TAXES ARE TOO HIGH AND SOCIETY IS COLLAPSING.

THE GOVT NEEDS TO MAKE BUSINESS INVESTMENTS AND ACTUALLY PRODUCE WEALTH (NOT JUST ROADS) so that the "losses" from running society (keeping bridges painted, roads paved street lights working) can be covered.

Govt needs to promote industry and take a portion of large industry profits.

Things Govt should participate in.

Mining, and Extraction of resources

Energy Production.

 

Too much govt is involved with the not only NON PRODUCTIVE FINANCIAL SECTOR, but the COUNTER PRODUCTIVE FINANCIAL SECTOR (THE SECTOR OF FINANCE RESPONSIBLE FOR MISS-ALLOCATING RESOURCES).

 

 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

yes, BUT you forgot the Inflation Tax

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

they know this fucker is going down so they are making sure that they and their buddies are taken care of and are implementing draconian measures and laws  to delay the inevitable

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Things the government is participating in;

Bailouts for the central banking cartel and endless wars.

By the way, who's choice was it to have those two kids?  I really hate it when people bring that up.  Wah, wah, life is hard, I can't support my children.  Gee, don't have them you ignorant fucking shit.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:27 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

While you're dispensing simple-minded advice that no one asked for, why not suggest that the person disown or even elminate his expensive children...There problem solved.

I am childless btw...

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment Darksky
Darksky's picture

+1000. So forking tired of listening to people say "we gotta do this or that for the children". Just got back from a Colorado ski trip with four buddies from high school. All are federal govt employees bitching about not having enough money to raise their kids, and how with the sequester furlough this was going to be the last vaction they would ever be able to afford. I just sat back with my blount in my left hand and Woodford in my right, smiling. Zero kids, happy as shit, and have enough fiat to do whatever i want BITCHEZ!

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 20:22 | Link to Comment Whiner
Whiner's picture

You are the kind of self seeking creep that signal the end of a society. Keep on partying and accumulating. Die an empty death to launch youself into eternity. What you are you will be forever. Very lonely and totally isolated. Go for the gusto, Bitchez.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 20:32 | Link to Comment Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

The point is not about the kids though, its about the fact that if taxes and such were lower, having those kids would be no problem.

Also these things sneak up on people, you have kids, for say the first 5~8 years its affordable, then all of the sudden taxes go up, wages go down , inflation keeps up and wala your looking at taking on debt to pay for your dinner table.

 

 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 22:25 | Link to Comment Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

... and wala your ...

WTF - ignorance abounds !

Oh, right - Voila' - sounds nearly the same - but from the French, not a back alley in the Battery.

Idiot 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:11 | Link to Comment Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

"Things Govt should participate in.

Mining, and Extraction of resources

Energy Production."

This is a deliriously bad suggestion. Even the oil & gas majors hit a clunker sometimes - look up "Mukluk", a project north of Alaska, for info. See "http://www.rogtecmagazine.com/blog/tag/siberia/" (way down page), for a more modern analysis of what can go wrong:

"Debate persists over the reasons for failure of the Mukluk wildcat well. At the time of drilling, the Mukluk prospect was estimated to contain 1.5 billion bbl of recoverable oil in a Prudhoe Bay look-alike structural-stratigraphic trap, although subsurface imaging was uncertain due to difficulty in assessing seismic velocities through permafrost. Drill cuttings and core data showed extensive oil stain in the target formation. It was referred to at the time as the most expensive dry hole in the world. The Mukluk rocks indicated that oil had once been in the structure, but had migrated away. A crucial element or process of the petroleum system was missing. The 3D model shows that initially petroleum accumulated, but later spilled to the southeast toward the Kuparuk River field through a thin sandstone overlying the break-up unconformity during Tertiary tilting."

Billions spent for zero return, and the government wasn't even actively involved, Want to hextuple that loss, at least? Put the Feds on the case, they can waste, lose and destroy much faster than people who have to make a payroll.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 20:38 | Link to Comment Dre4dwolf
Dre4dwolf's picture

No matter what you do, the public services are going to cost more than the tax revenue coming in, its just the way it works.... when you have 20 million people demanding public services (busses, trains, water, mail delivery, health care) the govt right now only has two ways to fun all that.

Taxes & Debt

If govt had a business to run, IE: FOR PROFIT OF THE PUBLIC TO FUND PUBLIC SERVICES.... IE: Extract OIL sell it abroad -> Fund your public services................ you IMPROVE SOCIETY AND WEALTH LOCALLY.

 

If you dont fund it with a business, you endup either in debt, raising taxes to where everyone but the mega rich move out, and eventually the material wealth of the society you are governing will decline (roads will collapse, bridges will rust, trains will break down, busses will be cut) etc.

Im talking about a fusion of the public and private sector, without the socialism and despotism bit.

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:38 | Link to Comment Encroaching Darkness
Encroaching Darkness's picture

The government has TRIED to run businesses before: several variants

(1) Nationalized industries - PEMEX, Soviet steel mills, Chinese steel mills, various British industries - Thatcher did not privatise (sell off) the British industries because they were making money. The Soviets did not shutter or sell their national industries because they were such roaring successes. The Chinese are watching a tremendous drain on their economy right now, in the form of nationalized industries -

(2) Solyndra, First Solar, LightSquared, etc. here in the U.S. - our bureaucrats TRIED to pick winners to subsidize with our tax money, they lost their asses -

(3) AmTrak - how NOT to run a railroad, losing money since it started - every state that has no AMTRAK service pays for it, and those which have it are poorly served

>> Im talking about a fusion of the public and private sector, without the socialism and despotism bit.<<

(A) We have that now, it's called "crony capitalism", and steals from all of us for campaign contributions

(B) I don't think you can have a fusion of public & private sectors WITHOUT either / both socialism and / or despotism.

Thanks for playing!

(The answer is for the government to shrink and do less, no matter what is DEMANDED of it; some statesmen used to do this, see "Crockett's speech".

 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment rsnoble
rsnoble's picture

It might have all worked if it wasn't rushed thru and expected to be fully funtional in 3.5 seconds and have wars etc mixed in with it on top of everything.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:28 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

#4-"The Road"

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:29 | Link to Comment ShrNfr
ShrNfr's picture

Demographics that are in place in Europe (especially eastern Europe), the US, Japan and a lot of other places state that the population ponzi is over. Jeremy Grantham talks about it in some of his recent stuff. I have to concur with his conclusion that we are not going to grow our way out of things any more. Our politicians are of a different opinion, but they are just trying to ride it out till they can retire. The EU goes first, but the US and a lot of other places are on the same trajectory into the crap heap.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

"we are not going to grow our way out of things any more"

-------------------

From an eCONomic perspective, this may be true.  The reality is humanity is still growing.  The only outcome now being a diminised quality of life as everyone watches all paper promises burn and a global/local power shift as everyone demands something of real value in exchange for their labor or resources.  Some will do better than others, although being near a crowded city with numerous EBT recipients might not be such a good idea.  Look at history, supply lines always break and civilizations go extinct or go to war.  All kinds of good innovations typically come out the other side, to be enjoyed by those who survive.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:01 | Link to Comment slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Growth? What growth? All our growth is due to price hikes. We produce less and less as time goes on. If we ever got back to full production prices would drop as fast as my peter in front of Merkel.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The human population is still very much growing (it's called read comprehension by the way).  As far as producing things goes, that requires real inputs like energy and materials.  So let's say that the earth decides to start producing again.  Who is the earth selling to and what are they providing of real value in exchange?  See the problem yet?

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:42 | Link to Comment slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

It is actually reading comprehension.

As far as oil & gas, the earth is constantly renewing. We burn off more nat gas than we use.  Lumber is also renewable - we just have to replant. Same with food, etc. What is not renewable is the metals which we use to make machines, but we could be using idle human energy instead.

 

 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 22:54 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

......rolling eyes and shaking head..........

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:35 | Link to Comment Tinky
Tinky's picture

I'll choose door number three, Chuck.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:36 | Link to Comment Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

burn, baby, burn! that's what i'm hoping for. i dont care if i have to eat snow. iwant the rule of law to come back. but, most of all, i want to round up the fucking bankers and their families and hang them. if i can do that, i'll eat rats for dinner

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:45 | Link to Comment Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Let's send their puppets (i mean politicians) to the gallows with them. Rope is cheap.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Brokenarrow
Brokenarrow's picture

btw: i know the pigs read this site.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Ourrulersknowbest
Ourrulersknowbest's picture

If I was a piece of shit banker I would read this site and laugh like a loon.zh is a very small corner of the world.most people here are AWARE.the majority don't want to be.simples.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

Clearly they would get thier day in court with 12 taxpayers as jurors. One day should be sufficient.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:37 | Link to Comment Ourrulersknowbest
Ourrulersknowbest's picture

At any other time in history the spectre of war between western nations would rear its ugly head.this cannot happen now because of a generation of young men raised on Montessori principles who couldn't survive without positive reinforcement and Facebook.
No one will object.no one will fight.as long as there is xfactor on a Saturday and cat on a surfboard on YouTube,our young men will be subdued and ready to accept whatever scraps come their way.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:41 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Interesting hypothesis.  Now remind us, how many veterans are out there?  How many active service members?  How many NRA members who actively hunt?  How many reservists?  Some will do better than others.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:48 | Link to Comment Ourrulersknowbest
Ourrulersknowbest's picture

Sorry.to clarify I am in Ireland.we don't have a lot of self sufficient young men.a lot of young guys I deal with have vague memories of their fathers owning tools.We make and produce less and less with the exception of our farmers.our politicians wanted a "smart" economy.what they got was something a bit different..

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:49 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

you still make damn good beer, so there's that.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:53 | Link to Comment Ourrulersknowbest
Ourrulersknowbest's picture

Guinness is owned by diagio. A British multinational mega corp.....

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:05 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

many choices other than guinness.  Don't you support the local brewer?

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Ourrulersknowbest
Ourrulersknowbest's picture

This country has rapidly caught up with the USA in terms of consumerism and buying into the bullshit dream.the brands that dominate here are the same as dominate most of the western world.we like to promote the old Irish land of the shamrockcrap to hook tourists,but really we are the same as any modern(developed) country.as for supporting local,I try when and where I can but swimming against the tide gets exhausting.
Nonetheless I will continue to try.
We can only work on our own little corner of the world.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

You need to take a look at the list of local mom and pop brewers in the US, some of these places make some mightily fine brew...  there is also a similar list of distilleries, great to do a little road trip and sample the product!

http://www.brewersassociation.org/pages/directories/find-us-brewery

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:19 | Link to Comment Binko
Binko's picture

My dad owned a ton of tools, a whole garage workshop of bench saws and drill presses and what not. I own a big toolbox full of tools and can do a fair amount of handyman type jobs because I grew up in a tool heavy environment.

But my son owns no tools and probably never will. But he has a computer and a smartphone and a playstation. He's very skilled at sending text messages quickly or working his way through a virtual dungeon.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:53 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

AS that american writer said after the sexual revolution; the young americans learned how to fuck but forgot how to learn.

Norman Mailer was an intellectual, harvard grad not in the mould, who wrote like he missed not having known the life of a Henry Miller, having spent his youth in WW2. It came too late for him that revolution; and he seemed unconsolable to have missed that train as he had known many broken marriages and no peace n love like a loose buck; from the naked and the dead to The big Empty.

Now we have smart sex kids but dumb when it comes to understanding economics let alone physics. 

Upstairs, downstairs; never both stares at same time, what a shame for man, unclogged drain pipes but empty dream vibes in suburban jungles! 

 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:39 | Link to Comment ramacers
ramacers's picture

we all know "viserally" - there'll be blood.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 22:35 | Link to Comment Proofreder
Proofreder's picture

viscera, as in guts.

 

fixed

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:40 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

We are coming to the point where the flutter of a butterfly wings in the Philippines...can ultimately start a typhoon in Khartoum.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

It has always been so.

The world is interconnected, regardless of telegraph cables, fiber optics or lack thereof.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:30 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

Regardless?

Ah yes,  in the good old days they had divine telepathy; now I remember.

The old internet.

God's message travelled so fast amongst the wise. 

As the guy said : I used to write to my father and he would get it three days later if the postmen were not on strike; now I msm him or email him and bingo!

It took what, six months, for Spain to find out that CC had found America?

Those old butterflies were never magpies! 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:38 | Link to Comment magpie
magpie's picture

Why that's only lag or ping

Physiologically the "telepathic" rats in a recent experiment are strictly speaking predicting each others reactions. It's quite godless, devoid of any freewill and most randomness but synchronistic avant la lettre.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:42 | Link to Comment Alex Kintner
Alex Kintner's picture

In the classic lab Petri dish experiment, bacteria population always grows uncontrolled to the point that it dies out from drowning in its own excrement. This is how humans will end.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:45 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

I seem to remember something about humanity's inability to fully understand the impact of exponential functions.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:34 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

they went from 3 billin to 7 billion in 40 years; and from 1 million to 3 billion in 10000 years. 

THey took that recent trend for granted as normal evolution. 

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment apberusdisvet
apberusdisvet's picture

Just steal the hollow point that has your name on it.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:46 | Link to Comment bunnyswanson
bunnyswanson's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TX-QAhbXnXo

Here you have a drone, recording a team of people putting IEDs into place along a road side in some battle torn and most probably oil rich land...this US owned drone is in place for 24 hours when the recording video shows a US military truck with soldiers on board, drive over the road and over the IED, destroying them and the truck with it.

The drone operator had the option of stopping this from happen and choose not to.  Chilling clip what how this game is being played.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:54 | Link to Comment hidingfromhelis
hidingfromhelis's picture

Need to know...and whatnot...

Actually, it does illustrate the amazing extent of our capabilities and our shortsigtedness and lack of coordination in not being able to utilize them.  Who knows if the drone operators were simply looking at the IED construction as an opportunity to identify targets, but couldn't see things through to the consequence of dead Americans and destroyed equipment, or if the communications channels were so hodgepodge that information gets lost in its multiple steps?  Maybe the drone program is so secret that nobody is allowed to share or use the information.

Wonder if the Roman rulers dealt with these sorts of issues in trying to control from afar. /.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 17:51 | Link to Comment gmak
gmak's picture

If robot technoogy gets to where it can take care of Agriculture and manufacturing - at greatly reduced volumes, do the 1% really need the rest of us?

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:14 | Link to Comment dhengineer
dhengineer's picture

If the 99 percent are cold and hungry and the one percent have it all, will they live till morning?  Do we really need them?  They are the ultimate in the "useless eater" category, adding absolutely nothing to the quality of life on the planet.  I don't care how many hollow-point bullets they have, they will not survive a real uprising, which will happen long before the automated agriculture and manufacturing robots are fully operational.  Their drivers, tailors, cooks, flunkies, lackies, butt-boys, drug dealers, gofers, caddies, yacht crewmen, nurses, doctors, masseusses, hookers, car detailers, electricians, plumbers, carpenters, security guys, maids, dishwashers, and hairdressers are all part of the 99 percent.  To the one percent, getting their hands dirty is the same as the wicked witch in "The Wizard of Oz" getting a bucket of water dumped on her.

I have seen it myself.  I was a private chef for Ivy-league point-one percenters who couldn't even change their own freaking light bulbs or take out their own garbage.  And they had atrocious table manners.

Soup ala spittle, sir.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 21:19 | Link to Comment WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

Kizzie? Dat you? LOL

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:14 | Link to Comment Binko
Binko's picture

Scenario 2 has pretty much been the norm through all of human history. The 1% aristocracy, 10% soldiers and bureaucrats and then the 90% or so serfs or peasants.

The bright shining hope of the last 70 years in developed countries was that technology would allow the majority of the serf class to live like the favored 10%.

But globalization killed that idea. We are now living through the death throes of the extended middle class. In the past the 1% in each country hated each other and competed ruthlessly. Now the 1% is global; they hobnob and plan together at places like Davos and in the boardrooms of multinational corporations.

And globalization has made the rest of us into one big world wide serf class. Resource depletion and world population growth ensure that this won't change.

I'd say this article is spot on. We'll either move directly through scenario 2. Or we'll go through a period of scenario 3 chaos and then revert to scenario 2.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:40 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

"...until some event unleashes a cascade of unintended consequences."

Until some purposely caused bankster sponsored EVENT unleashes a cascade of unintended consequences.

Fixed.

There could be a fourth outcome.

The world plainly sees who and what is responsible for the corruption run rampant and just says, NO MORE!

The world sees who starts endless wars for the profits of a few, while whole countries are drained of their vital financial fluids by the parasitic bankly-beast.

The answer is coming into clarity out of the fog of illusions and bankster hocus pocus. The world's good peoples are all uniting to embrace the take down of the banks, and all are doing an "Iceland" on the whole darn evil octo-squid thing. Say yay!

It seems to be happening and if America says NO to the babylonians BEFORE they get the chance to pull a "Cyprus" on the USA, then there is a chance that true double edged justice might finds it way from the darkness it has long been kept in.

http://intellihub.com/2013/03/19/shock-globalist-plan-for-imf-failing-in...

Here is the kindling of the next battle to be won. Maybe for once the good guys that are left in places of power, if there are any at all, will do the right thing and just say NO to the babylonian banksters that are taking the whole world down with them. Well, they are trying to. If they do not succeed in turning Cyprus into riots and mayhem, then this will be a sign that mankind is advancing, and there is a fourth way out of all this. It's called the world's People win, and not the banksters that want to kill everyone off.

Standard: If it is not love, then what is it?

Please promote peace and calm in Cyprus.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:41 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Scenario 4:

A gate with a sign that reads:

Arbeit macht frei
Tue, 03/19/2013 - 18:44 | Link to Comment gdogus erectus
gdogus erectus's picture

The elite think they know how it's going to go down. But my prediction is that they are making a grave error on their predictive models. While most Americans are happy with their bread and circus, most also still think they are free. Unlike us awake and aware who realize our liberties are at risk, most Americans don't think that way. When Marshall law comes, you wait. The response will be NOTHING like their dumb-ass models predict. Ever see what people do during massive earthquakes or large disasters? They magically pull together. Humans didn't evolve and survive millions (yes, millions) of years by not trusting and constantly killing each other. They pull together when they need to. Just add stimulus.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:02 | Link to Comment MSimon
MSimon's picture

There are more endocannabinoid receptors in the body than any other receptor type.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:44 | Link to Comment MayIMommaDogFac...
MayIMommaDogFace2theBananaPatch's picture

so you're advocating a GREEN recovery?

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:29 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Unless you unplug from the matrix and its collapse is meaningless to you.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:30 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

i like this scenario.

a group of 100 highly trained men are part of a totally decentralized operation who are given orders to carry out a rolling operation to assassinate the most powerful people on earth politically and economically. each guy has a list of targets in his head. no one knows the guy in front of him or behind him. all he knows is the list of targets. the first guy starts taking out targets until he is caught or is killed. the next guy continues to take out targets on the list from where the first guy stops and so on until all the targets are taken out. the remaining men(if there are any left) start at the top of the list again.

that should reorder the world into a more benevolent model.

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 19:46 | Link to Comment thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Current economic system: not capitalism, not socialism; exponentialism: moar moars of everythings - forevers!

Tue, 03/19/2013 - 21:09 | Link to Comment MeBizarro
MeBizarro's picture

Another oped writer who tends to write some really weak stuff and this was no exception. Rather read Bruce Keating ranting about SSI or Simon Black telling/bragging what new locale he is in.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 07:01 | Link to Comment SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

The post was spot on IMO...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:34 | Link to Comment monad
monad's picture

Whats supposed to happen is happening. Don't you know better than to believe the propaganda, excuses and lies? Follow the money.

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