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Sprott: Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left? Part II
By: Eric Sprott & Shree Kargutkar of Sprott Asset Management
Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left? Part II (part 1 here)
The past few months have been difficult for the gold investor as selling pressure in the gold futures market has set a decidedly negative direction for the price of the yellow metal. As fundamental investors, we always pay special attention to the supply and demand dynamics of gold and, recently, we have found it very difficult to reconcile lower prices with continued strong demand for physical gold.
While the supply of gold has remained largely static, we have seen a steady increase in demand for the yellow metal. India and China have emerged as strong buyers, consuming over half of the mine supply in recent years. Central banks have switched from being sellers of gold to being net buyers, with their gold purchases in 2012 increasing by 17% to almost 535 tonnes. Exchange traded products (ETPs) around the world have continued to add to their gold hoards, as have institutions and private investors. Furthermore, central banks, such as South Korea and Russia, have added to their bullion reserves early in 2013, which points to sustained strength in demand. These facts are important because, over the past decade, the annual supply of gold has stayed flat at approximately 4,000 tonnes.
Much ado has been made about the recent sell-off in the yellow metal forcing certain ETPs to liquidate, adding a supply of gold into the market in the process. Our work reveals that the previous ETP sell-offs, (which occurred in January 2011, December 2011, May 2012 and July 2012) have all coincided with gold finding strong price support and rallying higher.
In our September 2012 MAAG, titled, “Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left???”, we reconciled the annual change in demand for gold between 2000 and 2012 to be almost 2,300 tonnes. We went on to hypothesize that given the massive change in demand, the only suppliers large enough to fill the gap between supply and demand were the Central Banks. Now, our long search for the “smoking gun” to prove our hypothesis appears to have finally materialized.
Every month, the US Census Bureau releases the FT900 document, which outlines US International Trade Data. Going through this document, we were intrigued to see that in December 2012 the US exported over $4B worth of gold and imported around $1.5B worth of gold, representing a net export of $2.5B or almost 50 tonnes1. This surprising number led us to look at the previous releases of US International Trade Data which go as far back as 1991 – what we found was truly shocking. Not only has the US been consistently exporting large quantities of gold on a net basis, the amount of gold the US has been exporting is above and beyond what the US should be capable of exporting.
The gold market is fairly simple to understand from a supply and demand perspective. Since you cannot fabricate gold out of thin air, supply comes from new mine production, scrap gold recycling and investor disposition of bullion. Demand comes from many sources including investment demand, electronics, dental and industrial uses to name a few. There can be short-term aberrations between supply and demand where the market can be oversupplied, or demand can outstrip supply, however, over a longer period, supply should equal demand with the price acting as the equalizer. Under this assumption, the amount of gold that the US is exporting should equate to the amount of gold that the US is not consuming over a long enough time frame.
Table 1 lays out our framework for analyzing the US gold supply and demand.
Table 1
For our analysis of supply and demand, we have very robust statistics as far as mine production, import-export data, coin sales and ETP demand from GFMS2, the US Census Bureau3, the US Mint4 and Bloomberg5, respectively. We have good data on gold recycling, jewelry sales and gold use in electronics and industrial applications from the CPM Group6.
Table 2 lays out our analysis for 2012 using the supply and demand framework.
Table 2
We used this framework to analyze supply and demand in the US going all the way back to 1991, which is as far back as the FT900 documents go. Over the span of 22 years, the total amount of gold that the US has exported – above and beyond its supply capability – is almost 4,500 tonnes! A truly stunning figure. (See Table 3).
TABLE 3: US GOLD MARKET, CUMULATIVE SUPPLY DEMAND 1991-2012 (IN TONNES)

Admittedly there is an unknown in our analysis, that being gold bullion acquisition and disposition by private investors. However, strong demand in ETPs such as GLD and PHYS and demand for gold coins provide strong evidence that the private investor has been a net buyer over the years. The inclusion of the private investor on the demand side would in fact skew the ‘gap’ of 4,500 tonnes higher to a figure that would lie somewhere between 4,500 tonnes and 11,200 tonnes, which represents the gross exports out of the US. The only US seller that would be capable of supplying such an astonishing amount of gold is the US Government, with a reported gold holding of 8,300 tonnes. The US Government gold holdings have not been audited or verified in more than four decades. The US trade data defines the export of nonmonetary gold as a sale of gold from a private seller within the US to an official agency. In September 2012, we espoused that the Western Central Banks have been surreptitiously selling/ leasing their gold through private channels in an effort to increase the available supply and in turn suppress prices. This new analysis using official US agency numbers seems to provide the strongest validation of our hypothesis to date. It is worth noting that our data only covers two decades and that the export ‘gap’ could in fact be significantly larger if earlier numbers were included or the real private investor demand for gold was known.
We are currently in an environment where policy makers are intent on devaluing their currencies in an effort to create growth. Real rates continue to stay negative in most of the developed world. Every marginal dollar of debt that is created is producing lower and lower amounts of growth. In a world overwhelmed by mountains of debt and economic growth which is sub-par at best, precious metals and real assets can act as insurance against the stupidity of policy makers. The evidence pointing towards the suppression of the gold price is becoming increasingly apparent. Don’t be the last person to figure this out! The current sell-off in gold should be viewed not with extreme trepidation but as an unbelievable opportunity to buy the metal at an artificially low value.
| 1 | Import Export Stats – US Census Foreign trade: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html |
| 2 | GFMS – http://www.gfms.co.uk/ |
| 3 | Import Export Stats – US Census Foreign trade: http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/index.html |
| 4 | Coin sales from US Mint: http://www.usmint.gov/ |
| 5 | Bloomberg |
| 6 | Jewelry, recycling, dental, electronics and industrial from CPM Gold Yearbook |
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Figures don't lie, but liars figure.
Just wait 'till the SHTF.
The only thing keeping prices down is plummeting money velocity...Yes, everything BUT velocity has recovered.
Strange times?
http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/03/is-money-velocity-recovery-achille...
We have this huge pile of dry leaves in our backyard. It just take a fool with a match and it all goes up in flames.
screw eric sprott,,,,,,i'm so tired of all these experts opinions its civil war in the west without any gold left
that's cool, I hear war makes economies recover...
Its possible that the Krug-Man has hit a record for the most UP or DOWN arrows
>>>>>
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-19/nigel-farage-message-europeans-...
OMG. Take a look at his demand figures for 2012. GLD inventory is included. LOOOLLLLLLLL GLD is loco London.
FYI see here
http://twitter.com/VictorCleaner/status/314137843108827136
Victor
So who is receiving the gold?
Asians? Swiss castles?
No, I have seen upward of 350 down arrows, but I don't remember which troll. It was a year or so ago and the trolls flush faster than turds at a frat party.
The U.S. gvt has an amusingly low amt of physcial gold holdings, but the BIS could fill the bill, if there truly was a need.
We'd love to show you our gold in Fort Knox but the sequester of 1953 has made it economically unfeasible.
http://www.silverdoctors.com/fomc-minutes-answer-eric-sprotts-questions-...
Like you've ever told the truth on anything? LOL. Get Fucked.
REspct mah GLDs 'n' ETFs, they're like totally legit 'n' backed up!
Eric Sprott's opinion is backed up with numbers, in this very article. I find those numbers very compelling, relevant and thought provoking. Your opinion, on the other hand, I find is backed by your emotions only and very much irrelevant. I think I will stick with Eric on this one.
JPMorgan And The Andrew Maguire Hit & Run Mystery
This certainly has the appearance of a professional hit on Andrew Maguire and his wife. It occurred just days after Maguire's name was revealed in congressional testimony, and the identity of the assailant still has not been released by London police.
Maguire now believes the accident was an attempt on his life.
Whistleblower In JPM Silver Scandal Injured In Mysterious Hit & RunI see Spain is now talking about taxing certain deposits. Is that enough of fool with a match?
its obviously all planned at this point, at least their gold is marked to market and the united states is not
Bank runs have a way of increasing money velocity right quick.
A bank runuually results in banks staying closed or limiting withdrawls in which case people jealously guard whatever physical cash they may have. The result is in fact reduced velocity.
Yes you are right; and that, for example Argentina in the early 90s, is followed by velocity going up. That is at least in part what makes it so destructive, that the sheep run to hide their precious only to be flushed out in the opposite direction. The issue is whether the hole in oligarch balance sheets is filled by confiscation, printing or some combination.
When in doubt, step back...Let's step way back...to look at the "universal" view...
(1) water deposit gold in volcanic regions
http://zen-haven.com/earthquakes-turn-water-into-gold/
and,
(2) Gigantic flood carved up Mars forming channels underneath volcanic rocks.
http://www.businessinsider.com/underground-flood-channels-on-mars-2013-3
Put one-and-two together...we humans should go gold-digging(really?) in Marte Vallis.
b...b...but what will the Martians say? Well, if we are'nt allowed to land there,
perhaps they (Martians) can come to the rescue (ha!)
Strange time (we find these out) indeed!
Velocity is easily explained. It's called a liquidity trap. Much of the money being creaated is simply serving to pay interest. The real question is, "who is all that interest going to?"
His unknown is the private individual and a big percentage of this gold undoubtedly lives there.
Which is why outlawing and confiscation will be the order of the day.
.
Fixed it for you.
imho this is looking at it from the wrong perspective.
the gold hasn't left. it's still in vaults in NYC, London.
what this means is that gold has shifted from public reserves into private hands.
If Mr Sprott sees a drone flying over Toronto, he better run for cover.
we all know the answer to that, more than zero but much less than admitted too otherwise it would not take Germany 7 years to get back what is relatively a small amount of gold. That alone answers the question. All the miners need do is withhold delivery into COMEX and LBMA and holdout for higher prices and the rigged game ends on the spot. Why Execs at these companies can't see this is mindblowing, unless they're so incompetent not to see the market rigging or they're in on it. .
SWF must be going directly to the miners and paying up if delivery is what they are after. A transparent market does not seem to be in anyone's interest, China, Russia, Arab countries want to secretly accumulate without skyrocketing prices, Western countries want to delay and paper over the real price while going after Mali, Libya, Iran gold and energy.
why do the miners seem to help in the suppression of their own stock prices? just how corrupt is this system? pretty dang it would seem.
Fear of nationalization
Naw. They are intimidated by the CBs. It's historical and cultural. Tread carefully around those who fix the price of your product.
Mining company execs are all craven cowards, Quislings and/or active collaborators in the gold price suppression, as I know of not ONE who will publicly speak out against it, much less take any action against it. The conspicuous silence on this topic at the PDAC and other major mining conventions, and in the major mining journals such as the Northern Miner, is in and of itself very telling.
Give Keith some credit.
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1321980348.php
Yes, I have read Mr. Neumeyer's interview before, and while he does mention overleverage in the silver market, and the fact that the price of silver is set more by financial machinations rather than supply and demand, he repeatedly and skillfully skirts the whole issue of the purposeful and government-orchestrated suppression of the price of silver (and gold) --- as does every other North American mining executive.
I do not include Jim Sinclair here, as he is not the executive of an operating, producing mining company (Tanzanian Royalty being a 'junior miner', i.e., an exploration company), nor one which is active in North America, which was my initial working assumption.
Jim Sinclair. Now you know one.
Hey, it takes awhile to dip all those bars of Tungsten into the gold....
Stuart... You bet some of the biggest gold producers cough,barrick,cough...is in on the gold price supression...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=CCLu5hpYYWI
This deserves an article on itself.
China buys 15 to 18 tons of gold per week, from three bullion banks. Ignore this at your own risk.
that's a lot of tungsten.
it is said that the apple doesn't fall far from the tree. this i would say parallels the action of it's ancestors, where it is so very,... very hard to change old genealogical, hereditary and inherent habits? straight from the Torah, and validated by the Tulmud!?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solomon#Building_and_other_works
Now,... who's really hoarding all the Gold?
can anyone say... 'manipulation for dummies'
This is why gold confiscation is coming back. Those vaults will be made whole again, and on the backs of coin and bullion owners.
It would be a good idea to diversify into other metals as well.
are the lines out the door at the jewelry store? nein. is it because there is a lack of gold? nein. so what explains peoples lack of interest in gold? "cuz their paying me 100,000 grand to start to work the jack up rigs in North Dakota." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NwzaxUF0k18
Gold confiscation??? Less than 1% of the people I know have any gold other than some minor amounts of 14k jewelry. So the Gov is gonna come confiscate PM's from 1in 100? I highly doubt they'll waste their time.
Besides, if the USGov wants their gold back, they're looking on the wrong continent.
They'll have to confiscate all the lead first and I have a feeling certain folk will give that to em at a high rate of speed. Just sayin. Personally, I am quite afraid of heavy metals and seek to avoid them as per EPA guidelines.
The safest metals to own may well be palladium and rare earths
There is not a lot of surplus supply in platinum and palladium and mining is not cost effective at current price levels.
I think there is value to be had here.
You have a point.
If the Fed gets close to running out of physical to sell/lease into the market, then trust in the entire financial system would be at risk of collapsing.
Would that be enough of a reason to declare an emergency and issue several executive orders....with the aim of converting the fFed's paper gold receivables back into physical?
I think so.
But miners would be an easier, more concentrated target. See Hugh Hendry and his thesis on this (if the POG were to surge, miners could get nationalized).
At the same time, why not make physical gold (bullion, not jewelry) illegal too? It's happened before and with today's tracking systems, the government would have very little difficulty identifying anyone who's BOUGHT gold, from dealers (in person or via the internet), over the last say 20 years. Sure, it would be difficult for the Feds to get their hands on all of it, but I wouldn't be surprised if they tried.....all in the name of national security.
PS. For the record, I've SOLD all my gold to private investors, via the internet, in exchange for cash. Unfortunately, I don't have any record of these SALES.
I wonder what the figures are from the start of the crisis onwards. Has the discrepancy increased dramatically? I would guess is hasn't otherwise he would have mentioned it. If the US Gov't were supressing the price of gold by selling their holdings, you would expect the amount they've had to sell to have gone through the roof since 2007/08.
Over 22 years the avg discrepancy is 204 tons, so last years 278 isn't the large increase I would have expected.
Still, it's puzzling. And I'm stacking regardless, don't get me wrong. Just bought a shit load over the weekend with the Cyprus news.
PS - Sprott's hedge fund is down > 40% over the last 12 months... again.
I wonder what the conclusion would be if Sprott all of a sudden figure out that there is really approximately 100X the so called reported amount of above ground and refined gold. Or, maybe he is just an agent of the same power... It would make sense. I would not leave someone such as Sprott out as a wild card, if it was not part of the plan. Would you?
Pure fantasy. You need to provide at least a possible way 100x more gold supply exists than has been reported by world gold miners over the centuries. Do that, and then you could reasonably float such an absurd scenario.
Eh, probably a lot closer to 100X less. Why do you think no cameras are allowed inside Fort Knox anymore?
How much gold is in the USA Exchange Stabilization Fund.....?
That is the question also.
Ps....
I got more gold than Ben Bernanke....and it's "tradition" too.
Ben...?
Is that you down voting me.....?
Now you know you why it's taking Uncle Sam 7 years to return only part of Germanys Gold.
1: Germany is nuts to only ask for a tiny fraction.
2: The feds will need to drain the last dregs.
3: Or enter the physical market.
Watch for the predators-that-be to offer nominally attractive paper gold vehicles to suck up demand for physical gold. At worst, this might make banks open savings accounts denominated in gold, but backed up by nothing. This would almost certainly happen if Germany demanded return of all their gold.
It takes only 3 Lufhtansa flights to return that gold. It can be easily done in a day. Why is it taking 7 years?
what's the average duration of swaps & loans?
forever and a day or until hell freezes over - which ever comes first.
Tempting to post something flippant or clever... time to get the Queen down for a photo op comes to mind... wrong country... well, how about we could do a special on the Federal Reseve... but that has been done...
Problem is, I am feeling neither flippant nor clever. The past three weeks I have seen more major events than I can remember in any prior three week period... at least in several years... From North Korea to Cyprus... and let's not forget the Iran/Israel standoff has not gone away. The world moves slowly towards major crisis until near the end... then things happen quickly.
It seems the pot is about to boil...
Sorry for the mixed metaphors but it has been a long day...
It stands to reason that if big banks are short of cash, central banks will lend them their gold for them to sell to raise cash. The CBs will never get that gold back, but they figure anything is better than letting the first domino fall.
So the fuckeahd Douglas Yearley - CEO of Toll Brothers - saying that housing is recovering.
Of course, he is talking about the "luxury end". You mean, the elites, who are going to lose their heads like you, asswipe?
Gold is a barbarous relic - compared to the new age fiat of the Bernanke and other central bankers. Of course, the tangibles such as Gold and Silver win in the end, but go ahead and invest in illusory wood, pulp, and paper promises.
Toll Brothers housing LUXURY?
Toll Brothers caters to the sort of person that thinks that The Olive Garden is good authentic Italian Food, or thinks that Macy's sells high end clothing, or that a Whole Foods sells the best quality food.
If you scratch any one of those and look under the surface you will see a pretty standard product. Toll Brothers makes cheap townhomes and houses with facades of brick and mortar. They are hardly for the "elites" nor are they "luxury". They have great marketing because we have a lot of stupid people in the United States - that's all.
yes, if you include figures from the heyday of the london gold pool, you will most likely find the remaining 3800 tons of gold....and there is no telling what the us government removed by stealth, some of which is probably sitting in jamie dimon's basement....
and when you consider all of the property the rockefeller nazis own in nyc, it is quite conceivable that the fed's underground vault connects not just to jpm but to certain private residences....i would start looking for mazes underneath nyc....
as jim willie has said, based upon security contacts he has, the only thing in ft knox is nerve gas....the clintons probably left a few gold plated tungsten bars behind as souvenirs from their massive hoaxes of the mid 90s.....
If they have less than I do, I'd panic.
I don’t think it’s a question of whether the central banks have any gold left; I believe the answer to that is yes. The real question is: do the CB’s have any gold left that they’re willing to part with? It’s a complicated game, and they’re trying to stretch it out for as long as they can, before the transition to a new monetary system can’t be postponed any longer (i.e. physical demand for PM’s overpowers the paper games, and the big con is over).
I’m thinking that the CB’s must ensure they have sufficient physical to back their respective nations’ currencies when the crash hits. They need to ensure that their lower-level subcomponents (i.e., citizens) have sufficient value to effectively conduct trade with and to morph through the energy consumption reduction period that’s coming down the pipe. Otherwise, the higher-level “powers that be” will lose control and subsequently cease to exist. It’s fundamentally about the interaction of different system levels of life, and the difficulty to achieve balanced growth.
It’s probably a safe bet that the US has convinced weaker hands (i.e., some other countries) to sell their physical gold into the market by providing them with strong fiat incentives, while at the same time the US has held onto the bulk of its physical holdings in order to increase the odds of the US surviving the great reboot that’s coming. I’m wondering if that’s the ugly truth. I’m not proud of the leadership that’s been steering the US ship – we could have achieved better balances. The US preaches ethics in so many ways to its citizens, and yet our leadership does otherwise to its peer countries. In my opinion, the US should revalue its gold holdings significantly higher in a manner that allows the US to pay off its treasury debt 100% by trading gold for treasury securities (while also ensuring that the price of gold is high enough to allow all of it's currency in circulation to be fully backed by physical gold). It’s fair. In addition, the USA shouldn’t consider utilizing any clauses that allow it to default on its custodial agreements for gold that it’s holding for foreign entities. In other words, the US shouldn’t attempt to pay other countries with newly created FRN’s instead of returning their physical gold. Let’s come clean as a nation and treat the rest of the world like we’d like to be treated. The global financial system is going to reboot, so let’s do that on good terms with other countries and work together to build a better system.
***US has convinced weaker hands (i.e., some other countries) to sell their physical gold into the market by providing them with strong fiat incentive***
Exactly right. Canada at one time had 600 tons of gold. Most of it has been sold off (or Corzined off). The Canadian dollar is now backed by the U.S. dollar LOL
Check the vault on the island Jamie Dimon purchased. I believe the bars will have US Treasury stamped on them.
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Several years ago, I joked with my investment advisor, as we sat there looking at the gold wafers, sealed in plastic that I just bought at Scotia Mocatta, "Wouldn't that be a great scam, if they simply just coated lead with gold, and sealed them in plastic, because who would check?"
I'm thinking maybe we should cut one of those babies in half, eh?
I guess it would show up in the jewellery world, first, wouldn't it?
Wouldn't it?
Please, it's not a rhetorical question!?
•J•
V-V
Most jewelry is only =/< 58% gold to begin with, so if something is bogus, my money is on your bars...
...sorry
Just apply a little heat to your golden wafer. If any chocolate drips out, you've been screwed.
I interpet that refiners would be a first place to look for corroborative reporting
You mean...
Gold Bars Filled With "Tungsten" Discovered In New York City!
Fake Gold Bars
The Bullion Corner-- Episode Two-- All PAMP Bars are not the Same -- The "Ugly Sister"
Tungsten Filled Gold Bars?
20 troy ounce fake Gold Bar Part 2: Melting
Evidence of gold bars counterfeited
Same goes for silver, btw.
Two words: "Plausible Denial"
My wife has asked me to validate that our holdings are real. I told her that I believe they are because we bought them years ago before much of the "rush".
However, at this point, it is not worth me knowing since there is nothing I can do about it. If it ever comes to be used for barter, well, I'll have a clean conscience.
1oz pamp suisse bars have serial numbers. I don't think it would be cost effective to have dies made to counterfeit 1oz bars. 10oz and up though.... the swindle would pay for the custom die and some.
Gold:Dow 1:1 @ 5,000
It is coming.
As for central bank assets and devaluation, well see they are trying for the Trilateral solution, in which 'Europe' AKA Germany/UK (sorry France pat pat) goes into a sort of suicide/world domination pact with Japan and the USA. If they all play nice, and if they are the only powers that matter economically, then they can devalue to their hearts' content--as long as no one says 'stand and deliver'. Hamburger sir? That'll be $125.00....oh for the good old days of the $20 burger, eh? Ho ho ho how jolly.
Gold of course will be worth a .... sorry....ton.
But, letting Russia and China into the game makes things much more complicated. Maybe. Eventually. But not yet.
Meanwhile all this chaos is simply the result of corruption and greed on a Roman level. Think Caligula....plutocracy gone mad.
All self-inflicted disasters because our societies allow the madness of psychopathic elites to continue.
If so ... they will surely confiscate our gold in the national interest, clamp capital controls upon us, militarize the borders (to keep people in), hunt down hoarders (gold owners), make it impossible and illegal to trade gold or leave the country. If the US Government has no gold ... we are very screwed.
What's the point of confiscating gold?
When they did it in 1933, people actually believed that the government was doing it for their own benefit. About 1/3rd of it was turned in, and it was the "patriotic thing to do". Nearly everybody with any wealth had some gold coins here and there, as it was legal tender.
Today, anybody that owns gold is thinking "f the f'ing government, what a bunch of f'ing criminal lying FUCKS". None of it will be turned in unless there's a gun pointed at them. And hardly anybody owns any gold except for wedding bands, and the ocassional watch.
We don't live in 1933. Congress has an approval rating around 10%. It's not uncommon for people to think the elections are rigged. People hate the government. You really expect compliance if there was an order for confiscation? I'd sooner throw every bit of my wealth into the sea, than turn it into the government, and you can bet your ass that's what I'd literally do, before I'd turn it into this government.
+1,000...THANK YOU.
I don't see confiscation as likely. Possible, but not likely. Why? 1. Because there aren't enough gold owners in the U.S. to matter. As another poster aptly noted, if they're looking for gold, they're looking on the wrong continent. 2. Gold owners tend to be exactly the type of individuals that would make any confiscation scheme very difficult to implement and 3. The big reason: there are far more juicy targets out there that are easier to pluck. Specifically IRA's and 401(k)s.
The idea of taxation or confiscation is to get the maximum return for the minimum amount of effort. Chasing down a small and unruly bunch of gold owners isn't worth the effort.
Confiscate it HOW? LOL...
sprott's assumption
does not account for the ability of usa to invade any country and free its oppressed gold. what happened to iraq's gold? libya's? etc.
Well a net drain of gold out of the country in those volumes is not sustainable, obviously, so sooner or later whatever we are upholding with "our" discreet gold donations is not going to be getting it's allowance. "ANOTHER" (FOFOA.com) indicated the price of oil was being bought down with gold as a favor of sorts to the world economy. Consequently, me thinks the Saudis have been the recipients of our largess for a long, long time now, and Ft Knox and the NYFED vaults might be approaching the empty line. If I am correct, the day will soon come when we cannot buy down the price of oil and it will skyrocket, as will the price of gold, and that will be the end, to the day, of the buck as the "petrodollar standard." That would explain the resistance to auditing and the continued relative stability of the price of oil...and the covert pressure to keep gold prices down, and the 7 year payback schedule to the Bundesbank, and the continued military objectives of the US which appear to target nations with substantial gold reserves. What I cannot grasp is the elite's plan that has allowed India's citizens to accumulate 20,000 tonnes of gold without confiscation...yet.
It's not an elite plan in India. Indians have collected gold for centuries. It's part of their culture like credit is part of US culture.
The inclusion of the private investor on the demand side would in fact skew the ‘gap’ of 4,500 tonnes higher to a figure that would lie somewhere between 4,500 tonnes and 11,200 tonnes, which represents the gross exports out of the US. The only US seller that would be capable of supplying such an astonishing amount of gold is the US Government
********
Typical Sprott hype--what's so astonishing about those tiny "anual" amounts?
8000 tons of gold trades weekly on just the LMBA every week-
Paper/physical doesn't matter-- 170,000 physical tradable tons "exist"
The "only" thing driving the price of gold-is the demand for safe money..nothing else-
If the gold price had to depend on industrial/jewelery demand or if the price could be controlled by government/central bank manipulation-it would still be at $300-
170,000 physical tradable tons "exist".
I think that works out to about 1/2 ounce per person on earth. Sure sounds like a glut to me.
I think that works out to about 1/2 ounce per person on earth. Sure sounds like a glut to me.
***********
Don't assume--
Who said anything about a glut?
If you actually understood what i said..you would understand that "inspite" of such a large amount of tonnage available--the price is rising--doesn't matter one bit if 5 million people own it all or if there's only 1/2 oz./per person on earth--
kinda like you assumed the 170,000 tonnes number
kinda like you assumed the 170,000 tonnes number
****************
Fuck off grasshopper--
That number has been touted by ZH and a hundred other sites--i could post a link showing total recovered/on surface gold--but don't think you could comprehend it-
Jimmy, that 170,000 tonnes is an estimate of all the gold ever mined in history. Think. How much is licked in jewelery, electronics, lost or buried, plated, inserted in teeth and window glass, sitting in churches or buried with the dead. Yes, it's an ancient custom to bury gold with the dead.
Then take away coins, hoarding, official holdings, unnoficial holdings and you don't have an awful lot left. Yet all those "tonnes" get traded every week? Where are the trucks that move it?
Figures don't lie, but liars figure.
I think less and less of you every time time you post now. Get your head out of your ass.
I think less and less of you every time time you post now. Get your head out of your ass.
*************
Fair enough Bay--
We've known each other for a lot of years--enough for you to know i happen to have a different "opinion" than you- of why gold is important and why the price is or isn"t going up-
I'll bet I've been long physical gold as long or likely longer than you have-
I just don't buy the bullshit..sorry-
"Constant inflation-adjusted prices prove that there is no inflation".
You should have that engraved on your tombstone.
Or on the tombstone of your financial portfolio.
8000 tons of gold trades weekly on just the LMBA every week-
Oh yes. And we have tons of stock traded, as long as the computer algorithms don't break down.
There's no gold traded there. It's just a bunch of computers trading contracts amongst themselves. If there were only 1 ounce of gold in all of existence, you can expect that "2 million ounces" would be traded per day. The LBMA will continue trading even if they have to stop delivery entirely. It's a joke.
And don't forget, the Shanghai gold exchange is nothing more than an arbitrage system to suck all the gold out of the LBMA and COMEX. They'll pay a premium for the metal, giving every trader who actually takes delivery (all 3 of them now that Jon Corzine walked away scott free) to take delivery and then sell on the exchange until there is only 1 ounce trading back and forth on the LBMA. Traders can make $10 to $20 per ounce just delivering it.
Woo hoo.
China figured out all they had to do was give a LITTLE incentive, to get traders to send them every ounce of gold and that's exactly what they are doing. Once all that gold is in China, they'll just take physical delivery of all of it, pay it all off in US Treasury bonds, and that's that. That's why there is no fractional reserve.
Everybody thinks they are stupid, but it's just nobody can see the obvious. This is exactly what they are doing.
There's no gold traded there. It's just a bunch of computers trading contracts amongst themselves. If there were only 1 ounce of gold in all of existence, you can expect that "2 million ounces" would be traded per day. The LBMA will continue trading even if they have to stop delivery entirely. It's a joke.
****************
Prove it--prove what's paper and what's physical--prove what's delivered physically or rolled over paper trades-
I can't--
Are you that fucking stupid?
No, more so.
Here is how to cheaply refine your scrap gold jewlry etc. It is best not to sell your scrap gold for pennies to a street hustler.
Get a small carbon crucible (google it), go to your grocery store to buy ordinary borax, and sodium bicarbonate, mix about 20% by weight with the scrap gold in the crucible, heat slowly with an aceteline torch borrowed or rented until it melts. scrape off the borax slag containing impurities with a screwdriver. It will be nearly 24 carrot carrot gold. pour into either a cast iron mold or into small cast iron skillit. protect your face and body from metal splatter with reasonable shielding. keeping the crucible in a cast iron skillit as a spill barrier is wise for safety. Also do not drink, or be rushed. Rotate your torch flame rather than keeping it fixed in one focus. Give your full attention and common sense and you have pure refined yellow gold for barter.
A propane torch will work even better and it's easier for most people to get than acetylene. Propane actually produces more BTUs than acetylene it's just a more diffuse flame.
I'm sure Eric is probably right. Metals traders have been saying for a long time huge amounts of physical gold are being bought up and all going East.
But for now, the real prize is still on the table. Ultimately, it's all about the geographical resources for food production, fisheries, timber, minerals, energy, and all the other things developing countries need to keep a billion people content. Gold is still just the store of value and medium of exchange for all those things.
Curiously, our resources have been put in regulatory lock boxes under current Western regimes. But those resources all belong to the people, it's all ours. It's our national wealth and heritage. What is really disturbing is that the UN Agenda 21 thing would change that, and it has been creeping into the statists' policies under the radar. I sure don't see where the Chinese or Russians are going along with that shit. Why is Agenda-21 only for the West?
If a gold backed currency comes out of Asia, like it looks like it is going to, and we take a 50% devaluation, they will have a strong currency and everything will be cheap for them. But things like a doubling of gas prices at the pump for Westerners will halve our standard of living. That'll leave a mark.
But we will truly be impoverished if we do not fully control our own natural resources and are able to prosper from it. If TPTB have already shipped off manufacturing, stolen our gold, and are now merely running on paper fiat fumes, then the natural resources are the only real true great prize left for them to steal.
From here on out it's got to be Molon Labe, MFs.
Along the same lines... yesterday's article below for your consideration. Seems to me that all of this should have an asterisk (*) at the end of the article to note the disclaimer... * This article on gold is based on estimates in U. S. dollars. Readers should be advised that gold is only temporarily measured in dollars because dollars are permanently measured in gold.
http://tradewithdave.com/?p=15937
I have a really stupid question: What event(s) will have to materialize in order for the "manipulation" to end allowing higher $U.S. "Prices" to unfold? I submit that only when the USS Nimitz has its $US credit card rejected during a refueling stop in Gibraltar will that occur. Anyone have any idea when THAT will happen?
Redemptions are hurting Sprottie REAL BAD as well as Paulson and the rest of the tinfoil hat crowd. Ya think?
"Anyone have any idea when THAT will happen?"
Never. The United States of America--that bright and shining beacon of goodness for all of humanity--will live forever and ever, no matter what happens anywhere else in the world, at any time. Now go back to sleep...
Banking cartel most probably have looked at it from every angle, taken into consideration when to move forward and pull back, pulse on public opinion, so their favorite politicians remain in place (while elections still occur).
Re: US debt ...assets get seized. Ships, military force, land, gold, minerals. This is probably going to happen and that is why the DHS is armed; they work for "them." That's my view from here right now.
Would all Americans give their private wealth to pay the Federal Reserve and the other nations off and become a soverieign nation again? Hand it over To save your country?
The sociopaths who have destroyed this country are not going to save it.
Any one experience this? Chase Customers See Bank Balance Reduced to Zero
http://www.infowars.com/chase-customers-see-bank-balance-reduced-to-zero/
I wonder whether redemptions might be affecting Sprottie's opinion.
South Korean banks and media report computer network crash
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/03/20/south-korean-banks-and-media-rep...
Dear Mr. Sprott:
They may not own it, but they do have it, and they are selling it.
http://www.deepblacklies.co.uk/secret_gold_treaty.htm
http://www.scribd.com/Free_Nations
"The current sell-off in gold should be viewed not with extreme trepidation but as an unbelievable opportunity to buy the metal at an artificially low value".
I've argued for three years with many on ZH regarding this fallacy. First, I'm a physical PM's investor/holder. But, this doesn't make me a believer that ownership somehow excludes "ME" from being a victim of the guys who make up the rules. In other words, just because I own Gold and Silver DOES NOT mean I don't get a hot iron stuck up my ass when the lords of policy decide to confiscate, de-value, impose tax or arrest me due to that ownership. We all see these corrupt policies, the in-your-face manipulation and suppression - What kind of dumb ass would think for a moment that these crooks are just gonna throw up their hands and say: Oh well, we gave it a good college try at keeping PM assets from becoming a relevant investment option, therefore, we can now let them run like wild ponies...NOT! These people in charge will break every rule, move the goal post, lie and continue to manipulate PM's until the last song is sung, the last bullet is fired...They will never stop trying to keep the masses from realizing, profiting or holding an alternative (currency). Fiat is the heart of the vampire. It is to integral to the whole scam, it is the lifeblood of the entire ponzi - Therefore, NOTHING can be ALLOWED to stand against it. Want proof? Look at the value of today's physical gold. $1600.00 is a tenth of its actual value less the 60 trillion fiat dilusion worldwide in just the last 36 months. The elites will never allow true price discovery - They'll die protecting the paper lie.theres no gold at ft knox clinton and rubin spent most of it on women and booze. the rest they just pissed away
There's gold in Fort Knox and the Fed, we just don't own it.
Theres no bitcoin in Ft. Knox. It's even more scarce than gold. Molon Labe doesn't apply to BTC.....
At todays price it will cost 2oz of silver to buy.
It's like gold without all the central abnk involvement plus it can be spent.
I thought this was a decent analysis... But I'm not looking just to preserve wealth. I'm looking to also starve the beast.
BTC... The currency of choice for discerning libertarians.
Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left?
Assuming they did, I’m having trouble ascertaining a definitive answer to the following question:
As implied by Wikipedia, which is it?
In the case of the United States, the Central Bank is a legal entity clearly distinct and separate from the national government. Apart from the government granting the central bank a monopoly-charter to serve/control its people, the central bank of the US operates without jurisdiction, and in large part, above the law.
Short of the power held by government to revoke such charters, the central bank is by law, accountable to no one but its private shareholders.
Posed another way:
I suspect that the central banks in possession would claim ownership however, I could well be wrong hence, the question to those of you (Tyler’s) with far more knowledge than myself.
Well, they SAY it's ours. Why would you doubt them?