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ECB Re-Bluffs To Cyprus Bluff, Is "Prepared To Let Cyprus Go"

Tyler Durden's picture




 

When the market briefly surged yesterday, following the cryptic note from the ECB that it would "provide liquidity within existing rules" we urged to ignore the kneejerk algorithmic exuberance (although with only algos left trading that was obviously self-defeating) which interpreted this as an indication the ECB would provide unconditional liquidity now and forever, and that this was hardly a bullish sign because "the last thing the ECB wants is to appear weak, and fold letting every other broke deadbeat country to demand the same equitable treatment and diluting Germany's political might." Today, Reuters has picked up on this coming out with its own analysis that the "The European Central Bank is prepared to cut off funding to Cyprus and let the Mediterranean island succumb to financial meltdown if it has to, confident it has unlimited firepower to protect the rest of the euro zone."

It is unclear how much of the article is actual analysis, and how much interest-driven propaganda to put the ball back in Cyprus court with the imputed knowledge that the ECB will not fold and thus cave to Troika deposit haircut demands, but fundamentally the logic is there as, once more, the ECB will hardly want to appear weak and cave in to a "recalcitrant" and unyielding Cyprus. Of course, what happens if indeed Cyprus decides to pull the € plug, should Russia provide an unlimited backstop and in the process subjugate a part of European territory without firing a shot, and the precedent that Europe can and will let members go, nobody knows but one thing is certain: stocks will go, as always, up.

From Reuters:

Cyprus propelled the 17-nation bloc into uncharted waters on Tuesday by rejecting a proposed levy on bank deposits as a condition of a 10 billion euro ($12.9 billion) EU bailout.

 

Without the aid, much of it to recapitalize Cypriot banks, the ECB says they will be insolvent, and it requires banks to be solvent for them to receive central bank support.

 

Denied these funds, Cyprus would be left staring into a financial abyss.

 

For the rest of the euro zone, the ECB has a suite of policy tools at its disposal to prevent contagion - with bond purchases and unlimited liquidity offers to the fore.

"Tools" such as the unlimited, open-ended and very much non-existent OMT, which only "works" as long as it never has to work, because the Deus Ex qualities attributed to it by Draghi would actually have to be formalized, with the legal conditionality precedents put in writing should it truly start buying up bonds, something which would immediately destroy its image as the "end all, be all" bazooka that can fix any ailment. Which is why the second the OMT must be used, is when the entire European house of cards implodes. The catch is that a country must first agree to an aid plan of reforms and austerity measures. The Cyprus case has highlighted just how difficult agreeing such a program can be. "Even if the principle of OMT is still there and valid, all the drama about Cyprus may remind people that the bar to get OMT is actually higher than they probably think," Deutsche's Gilles Moec summarized.

As for the ECB's hard line:

By stressing that it stands ready to provide liquidity "within the existing rules", the ECB is standing firm.

 

The central bank is not ready to bend for Cyprus.

 

As its governing council gathered for a mid-month meeting on Wednesday, Asmussen pressed Cyprus to agree to an aid plan:

 

"We can provide emergency liquidity only to solvent banks and ... the solvency of Cypriot banks cannot be assumed if an aid program is not agreed on soon, which would allow for a quick recapitalization of the banking sector.

 

With Cyprus sovereign bonds ineligible for use as collateral for ECB refinancing operations due to their low credit ratings, the Cypriot central bank is providing banks with Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA).

 

These emergency loans are more easily available, but the ECB's Governing Council must approve provision of ELA. It reviews banks' eligibility every two weeks and needs a two thirds majority to stop these funds.

 

"If really need be, the euro zone would likely choose to let small Cyprus go and focus on containing the damage instead of softening the conditions to such an extent that much bigger countries than Cyprus could be encouraged to reject their own current bailout terms," said Berenberg Bank's Holger Schmieding.

And to think: so much pain and confusion over what CNBC can't stop repeating is nothing but a tiny, little country.

Tiny... maybe. But the precedent it will set may well be of Archduke Ferdinandian size.

 

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Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:35 | 3352889 chunga
chunga's picture

What is CNBC?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:36 | 3352896 MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

My Autobiography - Part 3

A Virtuous Life - A story of courage, integrity and bravery

My college years were when things stated to go wrong.
After a rigorous education in politics and the classics, I was accepted into Dartmouth to perfect and build on what I had learned. The excitement in the air at Dartmouth was overwhelming. Beautiful liberal women paraded the campus, and the students carried themselves with an air of importance and status. One night, immersed in the euphoria of a college party, I found myself sharing a range of drugs with a ragged group of hippy students. This became a frequent pastime, and by my third year of college I was on a combination of marujuana, cocaine and heroin. I'm not proud if those days. Today however, I am fully reformed. I now fully support the ban on dangerous drugs and I would introduce even harsher penalties on those who choose to make these destructive choices.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352917 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Do you get AIDS, cancer and MS in Part 4? That would be awesome...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:41 | 3352943 Pladizow
Pladizow's picture

So starting Tuesday the Cypriots will use Rubels!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:44 | 3352946 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

How this a bluff?!  Cyprus would be better off a sovergn creditor country.  Who dey fool'n?  Ain't nobady got tame fo dat!

 

@ MillionDollarBonus_: You are an idiot.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:48 | 3352992 flacon
flacon's picture

Lagarde cuts off her huge nose to spite her face. Lovely. Now she's bleeding from two nostril orifices in her skull. Blood dribbling down. 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:56 | 3353054 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I'm sure they would like to let Cypress, Italy, Greece, and Spain go.

That's not the problem.

It's the avalanche of hundreds of trillions of dollars in derivatives that will follow.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:04 | 3353105 BullsNBeers
BullsNBeers's picture

Well they can bundle up all those derivatives trades and sell them to the US FRB. I hear those guys will buy anything at face value.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:23 | 3353187 whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

In my experience, when two people are bluffing, one of them still doesn't lose.  ECB holding Jack high while Cyprus holds a pair of deuces.  Let's go all in!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:33 | 3354164 negative rates
negative rates's picture

I'll take the low hand, you take the high.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 22:50 | 3355431 msamour
msamour's picture

It's not the cards that Cyprus is holding that is important, it's the well armed, and well connected (read Russian Mafia) that is way more important. Why do you think there was not a single vote for the conditions? None of the politicians in Cyprus are dumb enough to piss off the Russians.

 

As far as the rest of Europe, I have a feeling they will freeze next winter. They all deserve it too, morons!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:24 | 3353192 tmosley
tmosley's picture

I see the ECB has failed to learn from Lehman.

I think I'll make some popcorn.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:07 | 3354027 Element
Element's picture

One wee refinement Tyler; it's not a European territory its Cypriot, and Russia gets a client-state and strategic alliance partner, not territory, though maybe some basing rights. The real significance of it is the strategic relationship with Greece that it will surely open, and which NATO will be frantic to avoid. (and which Greece will be glad to use as a lever :D ... or a battering-ram)

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:56 | 3354287 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I disagree. "there was no insurance for Lehman." and they do have a legitimate point if the "Lehman contingent" were to ask "why did Goldman and Morgan get the Good Government treatment?" I take one look ay Cyprus and see "Lehman.gov." in other words "we the Eurogroup deem" and blah-blee-blah. So I put it to all you Animal Spirits types "is the Fed chairman right when he says he sees no risk of contagion?" my personal view is that "he has no way knowing this"...indeed does anyone? Hence..."stay tuned." I see no problem with logic of this story...and look forward "only on Zero Hedge do you have any hope of rising above your own bullshit." needless to say "the bulldozer thing was REALLY cool!" still...you got nothing on New York Cyprus...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:24 | 3354119 Things that go bump
Things that go bump's picture

After the bubble from the tulip mania in Holland in the 1630s popped, there were, of course, massive lawsuits flying all over the place. The courts decreed that these were gambling debts and thus legally unenforceable and uncollectable.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:53 | 3352996 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

 

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Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:54 | 3353042 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Can I defer the payment of the machine until it is up and running?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:57 | 3353064 hedgeless_horseman
hedgeless_horseman's picture

 

 

Do you have gas or oil fields for collateral?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:50 | 3353363 Taint Boil
Taint Boil's picture

 

 

I worked on a Heidelberg press as a young man. Even back then I realized the incredible German quality and craftsmanship that seems to be missing in America today. I wonder if we’ll ever get that back.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:00 | 3353082 cifo
cifo's picture

Part 4 is how you got into Herbalife. Makes sense now.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:57 | 3353031 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

"So starting Tuesday the Cypriots will use Rubels!"

They either go to gold/petro-Rubels or to Petro-Pounds (reverting to their old currency), backed by their huge gas reserves. 

The ECB, meanwhile, is back by other kind of 'gas':  Bankster Biogas.  That also "goes Bang!"

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:09 | 3353782 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

Rebels + Rubles = European Rubble.  

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:43 | 3352964 chunga
chunga's picture

you just made me spit my drink lol!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:52 | 3353032 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Me too...

Dartmouth? I think MDB is Tim Geithner!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:41 | 3352918 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

A-K beats 7-deuce

Russian AKs also beat 7-deuce

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:43 | 3352963 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

Next card has to be a deuce, doesn't it?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:23 | 3353188 NotApplicable
NotApplicable's picture

It's a pretty good start for a low-ball hand, though.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352923 Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

Beautiful liberal women paraded the campus

eh

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:59 | 3353078 Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture
#1 Hit on Cyprus radio: Please release me -- by Engelbert Humperdinck

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6S9ecXWCBCc

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:23 | 3353189 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

I do love the voice of Engelbert Humperdinck in Please Release Me, as well as the other hit: Born Free

 

"Our race is the Master Race. We are divine gods on this planet. We are as different from the inferior races as they are from insects. In fact, compared to our race, other races are beasts and animals, cattle at best. Other races are considered as human excrement. Our destiny is to rule over the inferior races. Our earthly kingdom will be ruled by our leader with a rod of iron. The masses will lick our feet and serve us as our slaves."

Israeli Prime Minister Menechem Begin

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:48 | 3353356 Miffed Microbio...
Miffed Microbiologist's picture

That was the funniest part. The few I still know from my college days still have the hairy armpits (grey now) and their boobs are like pencils pointing groundward. I'm thankful I didn't burn my bra.

Miffed;-)

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:40 | 3352926 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

cool story bro, you should tell it again

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:47 | 3352991 Ethics Gradient
Ethics Gradient's picture

MDB is just trying to be (Mr) Nice.

Or Howard Marks - if you haven't seen the film.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:52 | 3353025 Global Hunter
Global Hunter's picture

Thnx for the clarification, I had no idea what he was on about I was hung up on the Dartmouth bit, in the film its Oxford.  Good film liked David Thewlis acting abilities in that one.  good reference from MDB I'll have to give that guy a thumbs up :)

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:30 | 3353230 jughead
jughead's picture

cool story bro, you should tell live it again

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:45 | 3352938 Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

Small penis! That's probably what's this all about. It's always the same. Self-grandeur resulting from a tiny pee-pee syndrome.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:19 | 3353828 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

I just pissed my pants laughing out so loud!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:42 | 3352954 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

My Conclusion - Part 1

You're a still a moron.

Part 2

You used to be funny, but that's gone now.

Part 3

You're really trying too hard...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:56 | 3353053 camaro68ss
camaro68ss's picture

It’s the psychotropic drugs is what did him in

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:03 | 3353094 Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Thanks for the Cliff Notes (i.e., the correct answers), angel.

 

+1

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:53 | 3353022 Doomer
Doomer's picture

A Virtuous Life - A story of courage, integrity and bravery?

"A Depraved Life - A story of arrogance, delusion, and hypocrisy"

There, fixed it for ya.

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:54 | 3353041 bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

So, in order to retain some credible level of intellectual consistency, you will be submitting yourself for retroactive prison time, when?

Because what you did deserves prison time, by your professed standard. So you'd need to do time to be consistent.

But you're a fucking hypocritical tool, like all the other drug warriors.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:03 | 3353096 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Glad you took care of your drug issues.

When do you plan to address your failed economic beliefs?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:29 | 3353221 machineh
machineh's picture

Treating his syphilis-induced dementia is a higher priority for now.

When you can't think straight, nothing else matters!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:42 | 3353304 Killer the Buzzard
Killer the Buzzard's picture

Who are the humor/irony impaired people junking MDB?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:23 | 3353446 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

@ MillionDollarBonus_,

do you come out of the closet in part 4 or 5?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352898 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

It's that station that once had the late, great, surly missed Mark Haines

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:46 | 3352962 HD
HD's picture

I miss Mr. Haines. Unfortunately eating Cheetos with ketchup for breakfast every morning will catch up with you.

The fact they replaced Mark with Cramer speaks volumes about the current state of "journalism" at CNBC.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:35 | 3354171 negative rates
negative rates's picture

And his bottom!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:41 | 3352951 lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

toilet paper ?

Just dust in eye of US market.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:49 | 3353004 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Crap. Nothing. But. Crap

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:54 | 3353045 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

banking holiday until a new currency is formed and and has been diluted 50%, then you can get your money back, all of it.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:55 | 3353047 Doomer
Doomer's picture

CNBC - Criminal/Negligent Banker Confederacy?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:49 | 3354248 Element
Element's picture

 

 

"What is CNBC?"

It's really tiny.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 18:00 | 3354313 akak
akak's picture

Cocksucking, Nobjerking Bernanke Chimps.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 18:53 | 3354534 Element
Element's picture

ah, there's my red down-arrow ... was wondering how long that would take to arrive lol

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:35 | 3352890 HD
HD's picture

You're Putin me on....

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:45 | 3352975 bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

Yes, go Vlad Putin !

Go Cyprus !

Pull the damn plug on the EU ... Tell 'em to take their threats and shove 'em

Show all of Europe how it's done

Even sweeter, if with a terrific Cypriot deal with Russia ... new Russian military base and offshore gas and oil and Cyprus permanently free of EU diktat

Greece will follow quickly, and then Italy and the other Mediterranean countries out of the euro

Call the bluff, crash it, do it !

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:49 | 3353007 HD
HD's picture

Sadly ECB will cave - they have to with trillions on the line. They just need to sound "tough" so every deadbeat country doesn't want a better deal. The last thing the EU wants is Russia even further up its ass.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:03 | 3353095 youngman
youngman's picture

I bet Russia comes out on this...a new safe haven with a port......they will buy Cyprus...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:33 | 3353244 waterwitch
waterwitch's picture

Maybe they'll name it Cyprussia

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:04 | 3353103 Never One Roach
Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:20 | 3353168 walküre
walküre's picture

Don't cheer for Vlad. Russia is NOT your friend, trust me.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:15 | 3353504 MarsInScorpio
MarsInScorpio's picture

Choosing between the EU and Russia, expecting one to be clean, is like choosing between the Bloods and the Crips . . .

 

It's only a matter of what colors you want to wear.

 

So if Russia floats your banks, and the EU doesn't, then screw the EU.

 

Forcing those people to keep their banks shut down when Bro. Ben is doling out $85-billion a month shows just how insane the Banking Cartel has become. In one week of flushing money into the world banking system, the FED could float the entire package and never miss it. It's chump change that these fools at the Trioka are risking their entire power upon.

 

The damage the EU is doing is uncomprehensible to 99.9% of the Western world. The hate they are creating will never go away - you are talking about cultures that are still fighting wars fought thousands of years ago. This will seal forever the loathing the Cypriots will hold against anything having to do with Western Europe.

 

It also shows the complete disconnect between the Banking Cartel and the political/military class. This is a disaster for both of those cultures. Allowing Russia a naval base in the warm Med waters, is insane for their interests. Yet nobody in either of those two classes has the power to pull the plug on the cartel's insanity.

 

Watch how long it takes the islanders to toss every relic of NATO into the sea, and line up at the port with flowers and Russian flags waving to welcome their "liberators."

 

Before you question that, answer this in your own life: Would you still suport the EU after they shut you down economically, made commerce impossible, deprived you of food, medicine, housing, a paycheck, and every other aspect of your life that banking allows to occur in a modern society?

 

Unless you are spineless beyond comprehension, you would forever want revenge agaisnt the EU and its Banking Cartel.

 

As I said, it's the Bloods or the Crips . . . you'll side with whichever group feeds you.

 

And do all you can to kill those who took your life away from you. 

-30-

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:56 | 3353700 Almost Solvent
Almost Solvent's picture

Your cut & paste over the last few days is growing stale.

Real Fucking Stale.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:20 | 3354093 walküre
walküre's picture

Cypriots can piss off the EU and will live. Cypriots pissing off the Russians and they will die. Russians don't take prisoners. Ask any European who survived the war and escaped the Russians.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:24 | 3354116 Five8Charlie
Five8Charlie's picture

"So if Russia floats your banks, and the EU doesn't, then screw the EU."

Go ahead and screw the EU. But don't get in bed with Russia after that.  That'll be a night you'll regret....

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:44 | 3354211 Element
Element's picture

Well what do you propose, strategic backing by Chad?

They have to do what they have to do.

It's ALWAYS this sort of limited choice (or no choice) when it comes to sudden strategic changes.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 18:55 | 3354545 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Men are from mars, and women are from intravenus.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:20 | 3353537 shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Spain Italy Greece Cyprus

The new Nicosia Pact countries?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:47 | 3352988 blu
blu's picture

... said the CIA.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:58 | 3353075 shutdown
shutdown's picture

The ECB seems to be Stal(l)in'.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:30 | 3353586 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

 thats   rasPutin    and   its   not   the   euro     its   the   zeuro

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:37 | 3352901 DavidC
DavidC's picture

As I said yesterday, go Cyprus! The ECB KNOWS that if they let Cyprus fold then it's the start of the dominoes. They're pathetic.

DavidC

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:43 | 3352959 a growing concern
a growing concern's picture

It's like the cancer tumor trying to convince the patient that he can't survive if he has the tumor removed.

Either take your medicine now and endure a painful but short medical procedure, coming out cancer free like Iceland, or leave the cancer and surely die a slow and painful death.

I say bring on the fuckin scalpel.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:46 | 3353335 ATM
ATM's picture

The problem in Europe is that their banks cannot afford to let even tiny Cyprus walk away and stick them with any losses because the Euro banks are so poorly capitalized. They are held together with only hopium. Any reality will bring the hwole fucking place crashing down around them.

That's a great opportunity for the bureaucrats to scare the fuck out of everyone into assigning their rights to the technocrats who will purportedly save them. However, all they will do is subjugate them and steal what is left of their phantom wealth. 

It isn't Vlad they need to fear. It is their own saviours.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:48 | 3352998 squid virtuous
squid virtuous's picture

Shouldn't the big O be involved somehow here? It is a strategic location, kind of like Iwo and Okinawa at the end of WW2... if the Russians want an airstrip and naval base vs. collapse of the Euro, this could get interesting

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:56 | 3353056 machineh
machineh's picture

He already is -- NATO is trying to take over the British bases on Cyprus.

The U.S. ambassador to Cyprus formerly was ambassador to NATO HQ in Brussels.

He was planning the ribbon-cutting ceremony for the handover, until this regretable little banking kerfuffle interrupted his well-greased plans.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:37 | 3352902 DrDinkus
DrDinkus's picture

today has been bizarrely slow. need the bearded clam aka the big dove to kick the tires

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:43 | 3352903 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The key to bluffing is to always be ready to carry out your bluff if it comes down to it. Failure to do so removes all remaining credibility you might have. 

<So never bluff with what you can't afford or are willing to lose.....or in this case the EU itself.>

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:46 | 3352980 mumcard
mumcard's picture

I thought the key to a good bluff was having an escape plan?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:58 | 3353070 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

The calm confidence of a Christian..., with four aces.

                                   Mark Twain

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:26 | 3353198 i_fly_me
i_fly_me's picture

Sometimes four aces aren't enough: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XunAlp2azhA

When you think you are holding the nuts, take care that the other guy doesn't actually have you by *yours*.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:33 | 3353602 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

  i   tot   a  good   bluff  was  one with  a   soft   landing

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:50 | 3353012 pods
pods's picture

The ECB requires banks to be solvent in order to receive aid.

ROFLMAO!

pods

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:54 | 3353026 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

The ECB never actually declares them insolvent, thus the ECB is able to (legally) render them 'assistance" to remove the insolvency "threat".

It's a CONfidence word game. :)

<You may be a whore....but if I never declare you as one.....well, you ain't.>

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:57 | 3353062 Piranhanoia
Piranhanoia's picture

Betting on a Nixon (7,2) is always a bluff.  Unless you have picked up on a tell.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:37 | 3352906 Vooter
Vooter's picture

Can we keep a list of bankers who kill themselves in the coming years? I want to send balloons and clowns to their families...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:40 | 3352931 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

I was thinking more along the lines of commenrative IED's myself.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:52 | 3353024 pods
pods's picture

Mail them a Euro and a note that said this is what they died for.

pods

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:58 | 3353071 machineh
machineh's picture

WOW -- your cynicism is more biting than muriatic acid.

MOAR plz kind sir ...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:38 | 3352909 Debugas
Debugas's picture

a pensioner depositor in Cyprus manages to avoid the levy and here is how - she was afraid of weekend holidays and was taking her money out every friday and putting back every monday

lenta.ru/news/2013/03/20/cyprus2/

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:46 | 3352984 xtop23
xtop23's picture

Well she's halfway there. If she were truly smart she'd be out of fiat altogether.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:21 | 3353175 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

You don't need to be the first person out of fiat, just the second last.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352912 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Let them go, according to Ghordius, all the budgets are balanced in the EZ.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:42 | 3352952 ekm
ekm's picture

LOL

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:42 | 3352953 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

Just as the CDS net out, and other fairy tales.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:35 | 3354150 Element
Element's picture

 

 

A bit naive, ... ok, ... a fair bit naive, but he means well. It must be wearing, knowing the sovereign collapse is amplifying through Europe first and throttling the cherrished EURO-peon unification dream (i.e. Mini-Me NWO).

EURO-peon

Definition of peonage: A system in which a debtor must work for his creditor until the debt is paid off.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/peonage

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352913 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Cyprus - The new Hong Kong.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:43 | 3352965 walküre
walküre's picture

I like the idea but the confidence in their financial sector has been completely destroyed. Try and rebuild from that and attract customers away from other tax free jurisdictions. Not likely going to happen.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:58 | 3353069 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

I don't think they ever had confidence in their financial sector.

http://www.testosteronepit.com/storage/2011-10-30_EU-Poll_Corruption-CY.pdf

Go read the early stuff Wolf wrote a couple of years ago.

http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2011/10/31/update-another-eurozone-country-bites-the-dust.html

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:36 | 3353902 Sabibaby
Sabibaby's picture

Looks like they did a good job of tricking the Russians!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352915 marco1324
marco1324's picture

Have the ECB and IMF have been very foolish here in thinking they can steal Russian Mafia/Government/Putins money as well as ours? 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:43 | 3352961 Confundido
Confundido's picture

Marco, the ECB/IMF are Goldman. Goldman did their part to push Cyprus off the cliff and hand them to the Russians. Now the Russians will play theirs. I would not be surprised if Gazprom offers a EUR5.8BN loan to cyprus, governed by a borrowing base, led arranged by Goldman. The big loser here will be Israel. I would not like to be Israel and have the Russian navy next to my exploration zone in the Mediterranean. If so, the israelis will have no choice but to bend over to America to ask for protection.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:46 | 3352981 walküre
walküre's picture

Goldman and Russian oligarchs don't play nice. There is no conspiracy between Wall Street Jews and Russian oligarchs led by KGB.

Forget it.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:48 | 3352995 Confundido
Confundido's picture

Really? Why? Money is not a good reason?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:51 | 3353006 walküre
walküre's picture

control and power

Goldman doesn't need Gazprom to explore the NG fields there. They have better connections than that and Gazprom is not a GS preferred customer.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:53 | 3353038 Canucklehead
Canucklehead's picture

You read too many comics...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:57 | 3353058 marco1324
marco1324's picture

So who benefits from an isolated Israel? Maybe this will allow the Obama administration to further distance itself from Netanyahu and Co?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:01 | 3353090 machineh
machineh's picture

the israelis will have no choice but to bend over to America to ask for protection

Good analysis, but the power relationship runs in the opposite direction.

Obama's in Israel now to receive his marching orders.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352919 Confundido
Confundido's picture

This reminds me of the situation in Crimea, in 1854, which set the stage for WWI. Same thing, except that back then the UK/USA banksters were not in collusion with Gazprom to force a tiny country to cede nat gas reserves to Russia.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:40 | 3352921 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

You already have the banks shut for a few weeks hurry up and corzine that shit and go long hard money with double barrels then tell those banksta niggas to fuck off and float a new gold backed currency done deal.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352922 monad
monad's picture

They aren't going for it Dick. Release the hounds!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:39 | 3352924 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

Cyprus, dump the fucking Euro!! Scare the crap out of the ECB no matter what they say.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:40 | 3352925 q99x2
q99x2's picture

If only the FED would let the states go.

Hey Putin make us an offer.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:40 | 3352927 OMG
OMG's picture

Generals gathered in their masses just like witches at black masses

Evil minds that plot destruction...

Oh shit wrong thread oops!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:50 | 3352979 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Black Sabbath attorney on line 1

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:40 | 3352929 Debugas
Debugas's picture

Cyprus banks will stay closed till March 26th

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:57 | 3353065 mumcard
mumcard's picture

Is the next vote on the 25th?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:41 | 3352947 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

well cnbc tells me that I should want the bernak to have a 3rd term because his amazing abilities are the only thing keeping the earth from spinning off it's axis. 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:59 | 3353079 pods
pods's picture

Well it was his fiat cannon that stopped that asteroid.  Or so I am told.

pods

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:53 | 3353679 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

he   missed  the   meteor  though

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:41 | 3352948 walküre
walküre's picture

Cyprus DEFAULT is being downplayed and promoted as the best possible outcome for the nation. Wondering what the worst case would be then? Anyway the media is already prepping the plebs to accept the inevitable and shrug it off as the best thing that could have ever happened to Cyprus. The ECB money slated for Cyprus will be diverted to fund the shortfall across the other EU banks. The Russians will get shafted and not made whole at any cost. This is the difference between Russian and American oligarchs. If you paid any attention over the last hundred years you can spot the oddity and explain it.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:53 | 3353028 angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

No !

Default means somebody else take over for pennies on a dollar.

Most probably, some Russians acting for the Russian state. They seem to control the money flow over there anyway.

Then, if they really want to stick it to Merkel and the morons in the EU, they could let Cyprus drop the euro and transform the island into the biggest tax heaven IN THE FREAKING WORLD ! All af this, of course, under the supervision of both active and retired (read Mobsters) KGB operatives.

Cypruss will be protected by any future "liberation" wars by the full might of the Russian forces. Didn't Putin just say that he's looking into make his Black Sea fleet a permanent presence in the Mediteranean ?

Bitches...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:44 | 3352969 blu
blu's picture

The US State Department is not amused.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:45 | 3352973 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Liars Poker...being played by some serious psychopaths

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:02 | 3353735 vamoose1
vamoose1's picture

   so   lagarde is  on  the   take    quel   surprix      they   tore   out  her   apartment   today   so   this    imf   cunt   had   a   rather   challenging   24   hours    like  her   hair  tho    i   admit   it

 

   surreal  is  a   cornball  word   so   sorry   peeps     but  every   time   i say   this   cannot   possibly   get   more   excessive  sure   enough  it   merrily   does   waiter    !!!!!!!!!!!!drop   four    save  three trips     who   could    begin   to    conjure  it  

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:45 | 3352976 Jason T
Jason T's picture

ECB will drop Cyrprus like Arnold dropped Sallie?  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vd1kzNBt4f4

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:45 | 3352977 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

As long as the banks remain closed all options including theft of deposits remain in play.  I would be furious if it were my money being locked up like this.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:52 | 3353030 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Bingo!!!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:46 | 3352985 ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

But ... but ... Little Cypriot children are going hungry cause mommy and daddy can't buy any food because the banks are closed

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:47 | 3352989 JLee2027
JLee2027's picture

If you cannot protect tiny Cyprus, you cannot protect the EuroZone.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:00 | 3353066 walküre
walküre's picture

Are you sure they really care to "protect" Cyprus though? They had more than enough time to divert the attention and come up with a real tangible solution. Instead they waited until the last minute and started a wild fire.

Remember, who it is they would "protect" in Cyprus or rather whose money it is they're potentially protecting. The ECB which is Goldman which is the Jewish money elite is NOT protecting Russian "black" money and Russian oligarchs. That's the bottom line.

Maybe this is a game of chess where they're pushing the Russians to give up Syria or allow for a Jewish controlled CB in Russia.

The whole thing is so painfully obvious. This is about Russia, about Russian money and Russian interests.

The Jews want to control Russia like they're controlling the ECB and the FED which by extension is the NWO.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:04 | 3353106 mumcard
mumcard's picture

Those poor jews must really be kicking themselves for letting Russia slip out of their grasp.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:37 | 3353271 walküre
walküre's picture

Could be if you're referring to the failed attempt at controlling Russia via the Bolsheviks.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:47 | 3352993 ivars
ivars's picture

You will find this interesting:

Here I have overlaid global public debt from 1999-Q3 2012 from this site (it was at about 50 trillion USD in Q3 2012) :

Global public debt World Bank database

Over the price of gold for the same period.

http://saposjoint.net/Forum/viewtopic.php?f=14&t=3214&p=41391#p41391

But global public debt= net world wide savings in fiat currencies ( all). One can see from the chart that initially, the raise in Japanese public debt did not cause movement in the gold prices, but when the USA debt started to grow due to Iraq war in the end of 2003 and decisively exceeded that of Japan by Q3 2005, gold price started to catch up. 

Also, its possible to see that gold price reaction to QE2 was fictitious, as QE2 did not increase global public debt, and gold prices returned to debt line, and now they probably have undershot below ( there are no data yet available for global public debt for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013). Gold prices can over and undershoot pretty much (+30%/-22%) , as I have explained before, and as visible from the picture.

There is also no reaction to QE3, as QE3 does not increase USG debt relative to what it would have been without QE3; QE3 only suppresses interest rates.

Question remains is USG debt=net savings in USD driving the gold prices in USD, or is it the global debt=net savings in all fiat that impacts price of gold in USD. Correlation in 2001-2007 is better with USG debt, while after 2007 total fiat savings=global public debt - fits very well and explains the pullback after QE2. 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:07 | 3353125 machineh
machineh's picture

Good work!

But I wonder whether it would work in the 1980s, when gold in USD was falling, but U.S. public debt was rising rapidly.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:48 | 3352997 tony bonn
tony bonn's picture

this financial crisis is not about cyprus - it is about russia vs imf / eurozone...cyprus is the pawn! if russia assists with cyrpus remaining in eu, it is totally fucked and outwitted.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:48 | 3353000 ruffian
ruffian's picture

this is an easy one....at 2:15 the FED will announce it is providing unlimited financial support to Cyprus so let's move on.............

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:51 | 3353002 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

TU Tyler for your excellent coverage of Cypriot issue. The longer they go on without letting a credit event happen the bigger it will eventually be.. we appear to be at that point now.

vc 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:49 | 3353009 f16hoser
f16hoser's picture

Use the Icelandic Model of "Fuck You!" I don't need your stinking Euro!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:50 | 3353013 the 300000000th...
the 300000000th percent's picture

I can only hope Cyprus will play hardball to the end. But you know that the powers that be will try do what they did in Greece, they will try and force a puppet leader out who does play ball and replace with their own puppet. 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:50 | 3353014 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

I think there must be a typo in this article Tyler.

"the last thing the ECB wants is to appear weak"

should read "the last thing the ECB wants is to appear unnecessary"

Thanks,

EC

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:50 | 3353015 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

...can we just get it over with already.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:51 | 3353018 aleph0
aleph0's picture

...."confident it has unlimited firepower to protect the rest of the euro zone."....  from leaving ?

 

A bit louder please .... the countries at the end of the queue can't hear you !

;-)

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:54 | 3353020 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

It is a no win situation for the EBC. They either throw bond holders under the bus or KGB connected Russian billionaires. Personally, I would think that throwing the bond holders under the bus is the safer play. While they do apparently arrange the creations of wars and the murders of heads of state, they will not go after their own. The KGB billionaires most likely do not think of the pastey Europeans as "their own".

Actually, wait a minute, there is a third alternative. They could kick the can down the road by simply lending the Cypriot banks a measely 7.4 billion Euros. That would hardly work up a sweat on the printing press. Makes one wonder, eh? Maybe the real goal is to create conflict ... small at first and then make the conflict so horrible that other pastey faces in other enslaved countries fold without a fight.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:52 | 3353021 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

I don't think those banks have any money left at this time.  They either get a full recap in printed Euros or whatever the next money is.  Basicly, they are exactly like every other bank, but they are in the wrong country for the Germans to consider honoring treaties with.

After watching the Germans purposely torture the Greek people, and now the people of Cyprus, I have decided they are acting like a superior race again.  It is kind of weird how they hate the Greeks, go somewhat easy on the Italians and Spanish, and find the Russians countering their moves.  Meanwhile Japan and China are going to war.  The Brits want nothing to do with Germany's EU.  North Africa has been colonized.  And the US is trying to do business with everyone.  It is a lot like WW2.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 14:47 | 3353346 walküre
walküre's picture

Germany is OWED over a trillion Euros from trade within the EU that has never been settled and paid to Germany for products and services rendered to other EU nations.

Germans have been FUCKED ROYALLY by the same cabal as always. Payback maybe? What am I supposed to feel about that? Symphathy for the money changers who fucked the world several times already with their paper games? I don't give a rat's ass what happens next and if Merkel keeps bending over backwards to the cabal, she is going down.

It's time the Germans started riots and being outraged about the THEFT that's being done to them in the name of the EU and the EUR.

Germany should pull the plug but they can't. Not when they're owed over a trillion by the rest of Europe.

Fuck that "superior race" bullshit.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:52 | 3353023 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     I'm writing a bankster 'bucket list' for the Cypriots. If they decide to expat from the Euro, it'll come in handy.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 13:56 | 3353033 Conax
Conax's picture

There's more than one way to get the money out of the bank.

Kelly's Heroes :

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=Csv1wXOr5tY#t=2...

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