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Japanese Exports Drop More Than Expected Smashing Adj. Trade Balance To New Record Low

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It appears Abe and his henchmen had better stop doing things and say something as the huge devaluation of the JPY so far is NOT having the effect he had hoped for. Exports dropped 2.9% - more than expected - and while imports rose less than expected, the currency drop still meant an 11.9% surge in imports. All this means is that on a seasonally-adjusted basis, the Japanese Trade Balance just hit a new all-time record low (negative). USDJPY is strengthening on the news... it seems that well-placed non-news headline at 2am Japan time is well worth it now to cover this debacle... We assume the lesson is - just wait, "if we devalue, they will come."

 

 

and the reaction...

 


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Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment WayBehind
WayBehind's picture

No surprise here ... and it will get worse ... much worse. Even I dont need any Japanese products. Gold & Ammo for me :)

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:22 | Link to Comment Half_A_Billion_...
Half_A_Billion_Hollow_Points's picture

 

Even the fucking FT is telling it now:  http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/502b369e-8c85-11e2-8ee0-00144feabdc0.html...

 

japan will teach us about what happens when you let keynesians out of the zoo

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:59 | Link to Comment ihedgemyhedges
ihedgemyhedges's picture

I just love that avatar. Cheetah in Atlanta comes to mind......

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 22:09 | Link to Comment stocktivity
stocktivity's picture

Japan market up over 150 points tonight (10 pm)...It's all Bullshit!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:06 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

So, Dow 15k this week for sure

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:14 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

You see...it is ripe, I tells ya, for a reversion to the mean.  It is nothing more than a stawk chart, and this chart reveals that a BOOM in global growth, I tells ya, is now at hand.

It's just like the stawk chart of X, CLF, and VALE...or FDX [for which the global air shipping boom will probably kill half of us]...or Dr. Copper...pinging the nurses to prep for BOOM surgery.

Since the global Bernanke Cash Cannon started firin'...we are all just seconds away from bein' run over by a booooooyah global growth train!

Bottoms are "V" shaped...but tops...they are "a process" and this baby is set to leave the station.  Do you have your ticket yet?

I'm not at all sure why Ben Bernanke's voice was quivering yet again today...with charts like this one just waiting in the wings to be born!

So come on, all you Japanese folk...shake off that radioactive dust on your coat, and get behind the almost, just barely, almost waiting for you global growth train!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:09 | Link to Comment goldenbuddha454
goldenbuddha454's picture

Print moar yen

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 23:46 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

Don't underestimate the power of printing money ... well, until it no longer works.

That looks a bit like a bug hitting a windshield.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:55 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

OT-Oracle blamed their "lazy sales force" for their shitty #s-you can't make this shit up. I heard Larry the Jew is going to turn salesman that don't produce into rowers on his mega-yacht.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:56 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I see Larry's CIA handler down voted me.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 23:14 | Link to Comment MSimon
MSimon's picture

So the Jews are just the front men i.e. targets. Pay no attention to the men behind the targets.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:14 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

The Japanese economy is structurally flawed.  Even if Abenomics is little more than the Japanese version of Bernanke's US model, the domestic economy is simply too large for the exporters to save with a weak yen which, in turn, in killing consumption.  Japan could impose a wealth tax like was proposed in Cyprus, but the government already has all of the deposits tied up in bonds.  The Year of the Snake is eating itself tail first.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:43 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

When the Yen went to 78 per dollar every corporation in Japan was looking to outsource production to save their skin. It simply wasn't profitable to export almost anywhere. If you tried to use Japanese components, you priced yourself out of every American retailer. The past three years have killed the labor market in Japan. The strengthening of the Yen was absurd considering the true economics of the country.

At 100 yen per dollar, there is almost parity and it makes sense to produce in Japan and outsource some of the more expensive items. Where we were earlier in the decade it was great for Japan with 120 yen per dollar. Production in Japan for export was very lucrative.

Abe is trying to get back to 100-110 Yen per dollar to save Japanese exports and keep Japanese citizens working.

In the end though the entire global monetary system is fucked. Nothing represents true value anymore. Commodities are vastly overvalued. Products that shoudl cost $20 are priced at $50. Fucking homes are built for $35 per sq ft but sold for $150-200 per sq ft.

It has gone too far past the breaking point to fix. Only a complete reset can fix the planet now.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:05 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

The Japanese labor market has been a government manipulated failure-waiting-to-happen for decades.  Still, the majority of jobs in Japan are found in the service sectors, domestic manufacturing and retail (which depend in large measure on imports), fishing, and agriculture.  You can only prop up Toyota and Panasonic for so long before it exposes the poor management of these mature companies who depend too much on government largess and of the overall economy by the government.  Getting the yen back to par with the USD is putting a band-aid on a heart attack.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 08:16 | Link to Comment Punch Bag
Punch Bag's picture

Japan will not be allowed to fail anytime soon. You can guarantee it.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:17 | Link to Comment VonManstein
VonManstein's picture

So Tylers will hopefully stop the EUR bias now then.. and stop suggesting strong EUR hurts German exports. This is a populist line used by the planners themselves.. You really think they tell you what they are planning to do?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

They don't have to tell me. They are trying to fuck us ALL over. 0.1% of sociopaths trying to controll 99.9% of sheeple. There's no doubt in my mind. And the worst is that they are winning so far.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:30 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

There is the pesky problem of "will the plan work" Von Manstein. Obviously Japan merely need "look at zee Americans for the past 40 years" to make a determination that "one cannot devalue your way to prosperity." so I put it to you, Mein Sturmviger...is the euro over valued...undervalued...or is the...is it a market or a legal code?..."properly valuing this worthless piece of paper"? (pick whatever currency you wish to value said "euro" against...or of course gold or even oil or natural gas. No you are not allowed to actually have the latter three when making this determination. You will have to do this "all in your head" as they say.) We will ignore the obvious fact that this "worthless piece of paper" has been a catastrophe for Southern Europe...for now. But I reserve the right to claim "revolutionary fervor" if you are wrong.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:21 | Link to Comment The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

I thought seasonally-adjusted hid the truth? Guess not.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:23 | Link to Comment FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

Seasoning only goes so far in making a turd taste like hamburger.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:55 | Link to Comment Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

McDonald's would like to disagree with you. Ikea can make a turd cake that you would love to eat, and turd cut with horsemeat is a European standard.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:23 | Link to Comment suteibu
suteibu's picture

Sadly, it did.  You don't want to know the real state of affairs.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:34 | Link to Comment adr
adr's picture

SO the world economy is what $70 trillion or so? Is this year going to see 99% of that made up of financial services and the trading of paper certificates.

We are one quarter through 2013 and economic activity is been almost nill. Most of what is on store shelves was bought in 2012. Homes are being "started" but not completed. Demand for physical goods, other than PMs, guns, and ammo, is cratering everywhere. Yet the stock market keeps going higher.

Have we completely transformed into the Keynesian utopia where nothing physical needs to change hands for there to be economic growth? We have at least transitioned to the world where economic growth can be conjured out of thin air to appear on paper.

I mean, my salary hasn't increased, my business isn't doing any better, but they all tell me the economy is doing better and everything is increasing in value. Massive growth is priced into stocks, and the created by ludicrous bulls forward looking indicators say the growth will materialize, somehow. Just like 2009, the next quarter is supposed to be the one where the mega growth appears. When it doesn't they just say, sorry NEXT quarter we will see the growth.

Been waiting three years for this growth spurt, haven't seen it yet.

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:56 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Don't hold your breath.

True growth is history absent a major breakthrough like the internet or nuclear fusion.

what business are you in?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:09 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

you forgot war

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:47 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

How strong is US support for Japan?

Will China be appeased?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:49 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Well SHIIIIIIIIIIIT...

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2013/03/21/12/0200000000AEN20130321...

(URGENT) N. Korea issues air raid alert, orders military to take immediate actions

It's hitting the fan or what???

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 22:06 | Link to Comment zdk45
zdk45's picture

bullish

 

(trying to be ultra cognizant of when use of that term jumps over to being overused and low brow. imho it still works in this forevabull shit-market)

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:02 | Link to Comment Mine Is Bigger
Mine Is Bigger's picture

Results!!!  It must be good for the economy.  Nikkei is up sharply.  Idiots!

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:17 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Funny how the yen gets stronger as more bad news come in...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 22:02 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Yen stronger? What are you smoking? Against what?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 22:54 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Lawn dart.

There isn't a single trader on Wall St. that doesn't have his twitchy finger on the "abort" button right now.  Everyone knows it's coming sometime.  They're just waiting for a trigger big enough to justify pressing that button.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 05:44 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

See... Greed'll get you every time.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 22:58 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

 

Japan has a petroleum problem not a credit/money problem.

 

So do all the other industrialized countries to different degrees.

 

Times and circumstances are changing under the Japanese' feet. They need to replace their economy with a different model and quit trying to flog the one that isn't working any more.

 

The question is now: who falls apart first, Japan or Europe? For awhile it looked all Japan but Cyprus has put Europe back in the lead heading down the back stretch ...

 

... this race taking place in an elevator shaft!

 

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

Race in an elevator shaft?

That makes me think of that Omen II scene where the counterweight becomes detached and the cable slices the elevator in half.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 00:34 | Link to Comment Element
Element's picture

In May to Aug 2008 AUD was ranging about 93 cents to USD and we had the sharp ramp up to petrol peak at at $1.59 AUD (i.e. equivalent to ~$6.50 USD per US Gallon). That hurt but not much happened and then it plunged, so all good, that was a huge stimulus, plus AUD went from ~93c to ~65c. No recession occurred.

But for a looonng time now AUD has been ~$1.035 to USD and petrol ~$1.50 AUD /liter (i.e. equivalent to ~$5.50 USD per US Gallon). And this combination has hurt plenty. We do in fact have a combined debt, currency and fuel price problem, and we aren't anywhere near as stressed as most.

So I don't think it is at all accurate to say countries have a fuel problem. We have all of them, and debt-load and currency effects are painful. Any push higher in AUD really hurts businesses engaged in exports. And it means that China gets an inflation increase transmitted every time the AUD rises. They don't like it, and we don't like it.

And a high AUD is not much help with imported goods either, as our major retailers are steadily going broke, no due to the cheap prices, but due to a lack of sales. This is due to high debt first, as people are maxed-out mostly, and sustained high-fuels second, and rising unemployment for many months (and anyone who thinks rising house prices is going to be a good thing, in this situation, has rocks in their head).

Fuel is only a part of the story of affordability, and economic activity fluxes, and I think you're over-rating it as an economic factor in everyday terms.

Maybe to pad-out further your view that cars are a net capital blackhole on economies. What alternative model are the Japanese supposed to run? If there is no demand, there are no sales, so what model?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 03:25 | Link to Comment banz
banz's picture

One that does not include a billion internal combustion engines burning what was once a

cheap finite resource. As for Autralia, the retailers are going broke because we the people are going

broke. My wife and I are very middle class, discretionary spending is watched

like a hawk in our household, it just rarely happens. How many pairs of jeans do I need?

How many t-shirts? Pay the watch a garbabe film at the movies? How about a nice

meal and a bottle of wine for a $120? How about our health premiums increasing?

Insurance? Electricity? There is no fucking middle class, only home owners(if they are

lucky, to fuckin bad if you have 300k+ mortgage, that will leave a mark) that pay

farkin bills and taxes.

Of course there is a fuel problem, peak cheap oil arrived and so did all the shit

that comes with it. Frack or shale all the fark you want, the NROEI slides big time.

Hey, why the fuck do you think they are even fucking around with shale and

fracking and deep sea, that is EXPENSIVE oil pal, you are burning a loot of energy

to get energy, its not farkin Cantarell, oops, sorry, Oh my has that field declined or what!

 

Then again, what the fark would I know, I just work and seem to pay a never ending

list of farkin bills.

 

Lucky for us in Australia, inflation is only 3%, see we have kool aid drinkers as well.

 

 

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 03:30 | Link to Comment banz
banz's picture

And yer, this news arrives and the Nik goes up 1.34%.

 

What is normal, I just dont know anymore.

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