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Source: Doubleline Capital
I thought this rally was real?!?!?
hahaha, i spot a half life pattern. Would not be suprised is QE is extended to 120 billion a month soon
Real versus nominal returns, bitchezzz!!!
Gold Price is Dead Flat since 2011, don't trust graphs from gold website.
The entire financial systemis probably levered to the gills......maybe 50 to 1 now...thus we dont see any 2% or more down days in the stock markets anymore because if that happened...all hells gonna break lose.
Drives me crazy that this prick stands up there and says there's no inflation as he deliberately inflates an asset bubble.
His lies are inflating even faster than prices.
Remember, for politicians, there are no penalties for lying. The math is the only real truth. The math always catches up with these cocksuckers.
gold rise in burst mode.
Reality sucks as a guide to investing.
Gold Price is Dead Flat since 2011, don't trust graphs from gold website.
Gold Price is Dead Flat since 2011, don't trust graphs from gold website.
So, one could argue, was silver between March of 2008 and August of 2010.
Good luck finding any $18/oz. silver today.
PS: Remind us all again how stocks are not only flat but actually DOWN, in REAL terms, over the last 13 years, while gold has risen multiple times over the same period, again in REAL terms.
Correct. Now look at the chart. Dow has rallied.. duh!
And if you booked those gains, paid taxes, and bought gold?
You would have a lot less gold than the person who just bought gold.
Of course the .gov doesn't make anything on your s&p that you didnt buy.
I'm just tired of buying boats only to watch them sink all the way to the bottom of the lake every time I return from the coin shop.......
Maybe I should just buy s&p..... Stubborn and penniless?
Look for my new, critically acclaimed non-fiction novel, Dow 360,000, at a Border's...I mean Barnes & Nobles....eh...it will be available on Amazon, soon.
Why is it everytime LongBalls posts I have this uncontrollable itch ...?
Stop talking and buy the S&P.
Between these half-lives and inflation, yeah $120 Billion should do the trick.
Loading up on Facebook shares. Great value! Or maybe it was silver I was buying...can't quite remember
Both are highly manipulated by the GOVT, so who cares which you bought?
Dow vs. US Monetary Base
Bubbles bernanke will get that inflation damn it.
Because we all know the monetary base is marked to market and not fraudulent accounting these days.
so 10% in the dow is approximately equal to $200 billion of q/e...good to know...well until it isnt anyway
Hey you, standing in the aisles with itching feet and fading smiles....can you BTFD?
The primary cause of the stock rally has long been known to bulls and bears alike. Bernanke has always maintained that his policies are to aid asset prices. So why does ZH keep denying the rally? Why not get on board? Even those of us who hate the ZIRP and bailout policies of the FED and Treasury should at least try to profit from the current situation.
"So why does ZH keep denying the rally? Why not get on board? Even those of us who hate the ZIRP and bailout policies of the FED and Treasury should at least try to profit from the current situation."
Personally, I give a shit about more than money. Like, sleeping well at night, knowing I'm not participating in satanism.
So why do the wary passengers of the Titanic keep denying the opulence and luxury of the ship? Why not get on board? Even those of us who can see the recklessness of the captain, and the iceberg looming ahead, and the lack of sufficient lifeboats, should at least try to have fun during the voyage.
Waiting for ascending triangle to break down. It's a coming, but man they are good magicians.
Well, they also can afford the very best props, which helps a lot.
Doyle Lonnegan: "Your boss is quite a card player, Mr. Kelly; how does he do it?"
No sense being a thief if it's the same as being a citizen.
These are the colors I learned in kindergarten.
I've been looking for a new desk top background. I think I found it!
It's not even a mystery. Blownanke himself has repeatedly said that QE "pushes" (his word) capital into stocks.
But the coxxukker would never concede that it does the same into gold. Neither would the paper PM markets, for that matter.
More like it's "pushed" into the wallets of his jew bankster friends.
Buzz Bernanke - "To infinity and beyond."...
Ben is Easerhead. http://www.flickr.com/photos/79201873@N08/8560530708/ Ben, how about you get on reducing the halflife of Plutonium next...There is a Nobel Price in it for you, i know you want one.
FUCK YOU BERNANKE
You mean to tell me the stock market is all phony? But Buffett is telling me to buy.
Tyler, how dare you.
Because the cause of a phenomenon is well know, it doesn't mean that the phenomenon is phony. If you would have taken Buffet's advice, you would have made some dough over the last 4 years.
Buffet can do this because has no reason to fear a downside. If the market turns, he will again benefit from taxpayer bailouts as he did in 2008.
I just saw the same black cat 5 times.
Its only time to panic when you see the same black swan 5 times.
No, the same black swan repeatedly means they have changed the rulez in the Matrix. Again.
Everyone knows that's BULLISH (until it's not.)
Those are swans...black swans!
FUCK YOU BEN BERNANKE! AND FUCK YOU JON CORZINE!
Ben: "What's your analysis of our ongoing liquidity program, everyone?"
Dallas Dick: "Looks like we're getting less and less bang for the Bennybuck---oh. sorry Ben."
Narayana: "I think it's clear we need to expand the program drastically--"
Janet: "--and EXTEND IT THROUGH 2017!"
Jeffrey: "I vote NO."
Ben: "Well, since we're all agreed, It's FULL STEAM AHEAD!"
I want to see the market going downward with the stimulus still in place and silver and gold going to new highs.
Eventually you get to the top of those stairs.
"Y'know...someday this war's gonna end.". Kilgore
..and the door is an empty elevator shaft..
its so obivious...
but try explaining it to the masses of morons vested who think their getting rich off their great trading abilities....
then try explaining to them the difference between notional and real gains based on whats happening to the debt coupon dollar that their peice of shit stocks r denominated in.....
and dont even bother asking them what the Fed is and have they every heard of Permanent Open Market Operations...........
and then note the look on there face when u ask them "why does a 1964 Kennedy fifty cent coin have 12 times the purchasing power of that $1 dollar Federal Reserve Note the think is money"????
The one I bang my head against the wall with is explaining interest bearing money creation. People cannot grasp that if you "create" say $1,000,000 @ 1% in order to pay the interest you have to "create" more money with more interest since the million you "created" is only the principle that must also be repaid.
People simply refuse to believe it.
Then tell them that a federal reserve note is not money, but an IOU, which at one time was backed by something of tangible value not easily produced or faked (namely gold), but now by nothing. It's value is an illusion that could disappear at any time.
Ahh,...perhaps they should just be told to read Ecclesiastes
The Gov should bulldoze Ft Knox........... There is nothing there and it just cost the taxpayers more money to keep up apperances........
Kaiser, you know exactly how it works, yet fail to take advantage of your knowledge? Who is the moron here?
tyler - we need to add the chart of the notional amount injected each time?
I dont think there is anyone left in denial, they are even getting angry about it over at Yahoo.
As it has been said before, welcome to the new normal!
Place your bets.
Get your money down.
No guess? No gets.
Here we go - round and round...
Markets? We don need no steekin markets.
The most compelling part of this data is the grey lines. Unfortunately, there will be no more grey lines to compare to future colors.
Sorry to bother you Ben, but it appears your rally is sputtering.
'The important thing is'...all they've got now is desperate in-everyones-face blatant market ramps.
They don't even care anymore...when this Shitcastle crumbles one of these mornings the devastation will be spectacular.
being a former tech chart junkie, this has been painful, i describe it as a series of busted bear market signals. someone noted that the SP has done best when it is down 15% from its highs, which is when the tire pump comes out.
Nuttin' like a little moral hazard ... (nothing like a LOT of moral hazard!)
don't forget the regulatory forebearance.
I hear Jon Corzine is sleeping on the sofa @ Bernanke's house.
People have no idea whats coming. NO IDEA.
wow, i thought this rally was for real. cnbc, bloomberg tv, etc, marketwatch, wsj, etc, all told me that the economy has been recovering since 09, housing is starting to boom again, europe is not as bad, china is not going to have a hard landing that everyone thought, and all and all, everything is going good, and only going to get better.
u mean to tell me that cnbc, bloomberg, marketwatch, wsj, goldman sachs, etc, are lying to me?
come on tyler, these ppl r very honest ppl, they would never do such a thing.
And the market thinks Bernanke can exit lol.
When Benny pulls the rug out from under QE, we'll see how well the markets stay propped up. At the slightest whisper of a clue that QE is being dismantled, the DOW will whip off 1,000 points and take the rest of the ponzirilla with it.
Benny is "All in Forever". Saying when Benny pulls the rug...is like saying when the herion junky voluntarily stops....
The next QE is Infinity times a Googleplex...that should do the trick!
this isn't much different than the chart before 2008?. just looking at this i want to send a shout out to BOB PRECHTER. hey BOB the markets have changed, and this chart bears no resemblence to the ones in your book. [unless you want to call this a decade long corrective wave]
This market is obviously on life support.
Pull the plug already.
+1, you beat me to that.
For four years, ZH has been deriding Fed policy, predicting failure and calamity. Then, they present a chart showing four years of success, highlighting those periods in which the Fed easing policies were in place. And, they follow that up with the Orwellian spin, "Ha, we were RIGHT!". WTF?
The only good troll is a late troll, otherwise you would have double-digit down arrows.
Federal Reserve has sent this nation in a great depression through the same tactics it is using today.
The secrecy behind their manipulation to transfer wealth, and those who stand behind this entity, seen and not seen, the people who operate it is globally are criminals.
I see is chaos and destruction other than a handful of wealthy individuals and corporations as monopolization takes over capitalism. Fed only stays in place because it murders anyone who has enough power to dismantle it.
Centralized Banks are the bane of modern society. Reenacting Glass-Steagall is the obvious answer to what we have before us and yet, no one suggests it. Does that not tell you something?
It would be refreshing if someone at the press conference had a set of balls to call the man a liar so the accusation could be heard by all on the record. Just saying.
Better put some more lead in that pencil, this last Squirt appears to be below "Market " expectations.
They won't let me have press credentials...
LOL, crunchtime is coming....
agreed (stuart) that proper questions should be asked like " what would prompt you to conclude that the monetary policy experiment has failed" or "wouldn't zero interest rates for borrowers have been better complemented by paying smaller household savers (those with less than $100,000) 3 trillon dollars in extra interest, rather propping up TBTF banks with QE" or "how much do you think food and energy prices have increased as a result of QE?"
also, it would be helful to me to reconcile the change in market cap during these discrete periods and the size of qe; if only to get some idea of the degree of leverage employed by TBTF banks to the US stock market.
Or questions about Fed's activities causing destruction of American's purchasing power and how its activities in ballooning money supply and "printing" for QE directly undermines US Treasury's official "strong dollar" policy. Questions never seem to include much that's legitimately critical.
here you go ..from a poster wayyyy down below
Easy Like Sunday Morning = fucked currency.
When asked directly if the ECB confiscating depositor money was wrong or unfair Bernanke did not answer the question.
He did not say he would not do it in the U.S., he did not say it was unfair to depositors, he condoned it!!!!
He actually mentioned someone else, as in once he steps down, being able to withdrawl QE.
That, to me, was a quite a statement.
1) He will step down
2) His successor will end easing.
That chart also clearly shows the diminishing benefits QE is having over time.
Ben has a nice beard
You will find this interesting:
Here I have overlaid global public debt from 1999-Q3 2012 from this site (it was at about 50 trillion USD in Q3 2012) :
Global public debt World Bank database
Over the price of gold for the same period.
But global public debt= net world wide savings in fiat currencies ( all). One can see from the chart that initially, the raise in Japanese public debt did not cause movement in the gold prices, but when the USA debt started to grow due to Iraq war in the end of 2003 and decisively exceeded that of Japan by Q3 2005, gold price started to catch up.
Also, its possible to see that gold price reaction to QE2 was fictitious, as QE2 did not increase global public debt, and gold prices returned to debt line, and now they probably have undershot below ( there are no data yet available for global public debt for Q4 2012 and Q1 2013). Gold prices can over and undershoot pretty much (+30%/-22%) , as I have explained before, and as visible from
There is also no reaction to QE3, as QE3 does not increase USG debt relative to what it would have been without QE3; QE3 only suppresses interest rates.
Question remains is USG debt=net savings in USD driving the gold prices in USD, or is it the global debt=net savings in all fiat that impacts price of gold in USD. Correlation in 2001-2007 is better with USG debt, while after 2007 total fiat savings=global public debt - fits very well and explains the pullback after QE2.
i find the tying of savings to equal government debt invalid
"in a perfect world" savings would be well in excess of government debt because there would be assets generating cash flows that rendered the government sector a very small proportion of ecoomic activity
don't get sucked into accounting identities sponsored by communists like krugman and cnbc shills
What's the real inflation numbers, 8-9%?
depends if you smoke, drink, eat, drive, pay insurance in which case its closer to 15%
if on the other hand you trade ipads, plasma screens, copper wiring used in houses, clunkers, jc penney clothes and pink slime...then it hasn't...
My assumption of their game plan since it looks good on paper: Target interest rates will be raised from .0-25% to .50% starting in 2015; QE purchases will cease considerably before higher rates commence (iow, 2014 - or possibly at last meeting chaired by Bernanke -- December 2013? -- in order to leave cleaner slate for successor). QE will not stop cold turkey but rather be phased out so next meeting could see $15 bil cut on agency purchases (QE lowered to $45bil treasuries $25bil agencies). If so, then meeting after that could see agencies lowered to $5 bil per month and treasuries maybe cut to $40 bil. At some point the stock market will see this liquidity withdrawal on the horizon and correct...or better yet, use Euro politician gaffs as excuse. At present, they've propped, cajoled and ramped the indices so that favored baby RUT will merely return to previous all time highs (~850) on a 10% sell-off and 20% hit would still be higher level than the 2012 summer low. A nasty sell-off in stocks should see a safe haven flight into treasuries. Such a bond rally would accommodate a small amount of treasury selling by the Fed without stalling it plus lower mortgage rates at a time more foreclosures are again coming onto the market. (Rest of Fed's exit of excess treasuries will simply be through roll off at maturity.) If all works out as planned, Fed will then appear a hero, having steered economy through difficult times. (Never mind the banks looted bank and CD cash savers for 6 years, and many homeowners lost their home equity savings to banks and hedge funds/private equity groups, etc.)
What could go wrong? Well, lots. Dif subject for dif time.
The real focker about this is between QE1 and 2... QE2 and 3..... Bernanke at least took a pause to see what was really going on. It said "SUCK!", but at least he looked.
Now with no breaks, and no brakes, there is no way to have the slightest idea what is really happening.
If this thing goes to shit,.. just on a plain, normal cyclical schedule (as opposed to one of the recent history mega-Bubble pumps)...
The Fed doesn't have nothing, it has way less than nothing.
We can no longer afford even the slightest pullback.
I'm getting tired of wearing this impact helmet.
Let's get it over with.
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