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Stocks Close Below Open (and FOMC) As Market Fades After-Hours

Tyler Durden's picture




 

It was a dream come true new normal FOMC day - green all around as the overnight pump on Russian hope provided the anchor. US equities (except Transports which were hammered by FDX) wiggled sideways around unchanged from pre-Cyprus, ignored the Fed, jumped on the BoJ non-news, ran some stops into the close, and then gave back all the open-to-close gains as JBL and ORCL missed and reality sunk in. Post-Cyprus, Morgan Stanley remains -4% (and BofA +2%) but homebuilders led the way. Volume was average; average trade size was low (and has been falling). For most of the day Treasury yields (+5bps on the day), S&P 500 futures (+6pts), and EURJPY were inseparable as algos ruled the VWAP waves. The S&P 500 ends below pre-FOMC levels but Oil was among the biggest post-FOMC gainer.

 

Saw this pattern earlier in the week - low volume ramp from deep under VWAP to unch from Cyprus and then dump...

 

but today was a success for a few gleaming moments as the S&P made it back to unch on the week...

 

and Financials seem less convinced (with MS down 4% post-Cyprus)...

 

Even though trade size is slumping (suggesting algos and small retail are playing now) after volume peaked yesterday into the highs...

 

But EURJPY, Treasury Yields, and the S&P 500 were inseparable today - guess which is which...

 

 

Cross-asset-class correlations reached extremes during today's US session (as seen in Capital Context's model below - lower right) but in ETF-land, the recoupling into the FOMC was decoupled as Vol, rates, and credit were each tried to ramp stocks and failed...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:25 | 3353856 HD
Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:26 | 3353862 flacon
flacon's picture

Market? We have a market? Where?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:27 | 3353870 HD
HD's picture

Broke down - wrong fuel...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:29 | 3353878 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

they use diesel for more torque and in case the alternator or battery brakes down, the motor will continue to run, due to self ignition of diesel motors.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:32 | 3353891 flacon
flacon's picture

Silver Wheaton earnings from Q4 tomorrow after hours. Be there or be square. 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:28 | 3353871 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

If retail investors are dipping their toes back into the cesspool, then we now have a market of bull-shit holders.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:35 | 3353898 flacon
flacon's picture

Or just a market of BULL iSht holders. 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:50 | 3353959 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Anyone else noting that this is a nearly exact repeat of 2012?  

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:12 | 3354788 Mr. Saxby
Mr. Saxby's picture

Joe Lunchbucket never got out, even if he thought he did. Joe's got a 401(k).

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:29 | 3353880 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

what do you expect from a fucking Cadillac. Did Nety-yo-yo got his nut off in the backseat before the breakdown?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:25 | 3353857 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

Tyler, when will you give us the solution to the two other countries pop quiz?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:27 | 3353865 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

MS will be the next one to have their necks slit and left for dead in a ditch by GS just like they did to Lehman Bros

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:28 | 3353873 Cursive
Cursive's picture

Not much longer for this "rally".

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:30 | 3353883 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I thought that at S&P 800 in 09

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:38 | 3353909 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@otto skorzeny

Yeah, I know, but even that is a function of BennyBux.  BernanQE even admitted today that, on an inflation-adjusted basis the markets are not back to all-time highs.  Then he denied the existence of inflation.  Regardless, the underlying economy is too weak to maintain this level much longer.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:11 | 3354041 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Sad isn't it.  Soon that 85 billion per month will be doing nothing but servicing debt as tax revenues crash (just look at velocity).  Nothing changes until the supply lines break, same as it ever was.  As strange as it sounds, physical fiat may start to become rare.  I know an old coot with pallets of $100 bills, crazy.  Got physical?

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:31 | 3353886 squid virtuous
squid virtuous's picture

the fade after hours trick will be dwarfed by the overnight pixie dust ramp ... for a flat to up open

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:33 | 3353889 Anonymouse
Anonymouse's picture

Tyler, just wanted to point out a typo in the headline.  You said that stocks closed below the open.  That can't happen.  Please correct the error right away

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:49 | 3354254 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

The article's headline is right out of the Maria Fartaroma playbook, "stocks closed up off of their lows".  Great spin, Tyler.  The audience eats it up.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:36 | 3353903 Investor-1
Investor-1's picture

Irrational rallies can go on longer than anyone could have imagined! But this one is already long overdue. My short cfd's are ready for action!!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:36 | 3353906 Barry McBear
Barry McBear's picture

What a fucking horseshit close.  Fuck this market.  

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:00 | 3353907 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Huh.  On the issue of "Russian hope"...How exactly is Russia extending a bond maturity and decreasing its interest rate...going to help Russia get 100 billion out of Cyprus?  For that matter, how does Russia putting up the €5.6 billion that the Eurocrats want...going to help them get €100 billion out of Cyprus?

And how, no matter what Russia does, is any of this going to put the ECB -deposit-grabber-genie back into the bottle?  

Once again, a bunch of ego maniacal pimps on Wall Street reveal just how challenged they are in math, matters of law, geopolitics, and human psychology.  What exactly are the wunderkind of Wall Street actually good at, anyway?  Sales?  Nope...as they sure didn't sell today's load of crap to anyone...save for maybe back and forth to themselves once again.   

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:50 | 3353957 Number 156
Number 156's picture

 

 

What makes me sad and angry are two things:

  1. The ultimate crash will be many magnitudes worse than the crisis of 2007.
  2. The markets are being pumped up by money that will one way of the other, come out of me.
Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:54 | 3353975 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

Short the market then and load up on gold & silver.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:58 | 3353982 Number 156
Number 156's picture

"Short the market then and load up on gold & silver."

Sounds like a plan, if they dont use my own money against me.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:06 | 3354759 EclecticParrot
EclecticParrot's picture

Don't confuse economic morality with investment strategy.  It's not logical to suggest they completely control everything and want markets up, so you're going short because you admire their goal but abhor their methods.  Shorting before a peak isn't analogous to clubbing a lettuce grower for worker maltreatment -- it's similar to tossing doubloons in front of a steamroller.  The markets crawl higher daily as bankers use ben's liquidity to fuck small-time shorts who can't afford higher stops, and the way to stop them isn't to hand them your checkbook.  Use your time and money to lobby against ZIRP, or even better, rather than castigate the Bearded One for acting desperately from a fear of gov't dysfunction, a fear you both share, lobby for the very budgetary solutions that will convince Benjamin to back off.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:50 | 3354905 Number 156
Number 156's picture

' The markets crawl higher daily as bankers use Ben's liquidity to fuck small-time shorts who can't afford higher stops..'

Of course. they're using my money against me.

They tax it from me, they 'fee' it from me, they inflate it out from under me.

Then they kill the shorts with it. 

 What will happen is the fake bubble based economy will completely collapse under its own weight, and that's when they discover that trying to pull revenue out of a very angry populace is expensive and fruitless. (even if you can make much of your population 'dissapear' ala Stalin and Mao instead of jailing dissenters, you've just removed part of your economic engine to pull costs forward, why else would they want to see high birth rates?)

Cyprus and the European union is a great example of what will happen. If they go extreme, they can shoot and arrest rioters, they can impose harsh taxes, but no matter what they do at that point, it will not bring back the economy. At that point, we wont worry much about ZIRP. 

 

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 21:45 | 3355152 Jackagain
Jackagain's picture

There's nothing you can do about that since they ae the ones who invented the money. They also created the money....they control every game too....all you can do is short their money game and buy hard assets.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 16:52 | 3353967 The Heart
The Heart's picture

Speaking of closed. It looks like there is the possibility that because of massive bank run fears, the banksters worst nightmare, these banks may not ever open again. Maybe not real soon anyways. It all depends on yet another meeting that is being held to find the clarity in this insane picture.

How long can these people be held up from doing their normal day to day business? How long are they going to freeze the funds of legitimate and illegitimate Russian business people? They are getting pretty hot under the collar about now. Putting them off for much longer might not be the right thing to do.

It's going to be a long weekend if there is not some kind of major breakthrough soon. Lots of jabberwokie talking going on. Using the people's angst to stir emoptional reactions, and making them suffer is NOT the way to solve this problem. On the other hand, the Cypriot people have a great opportunity to turn this potential for big confrontations into a peaceful transition into the next economic system.

Pray for Cyprus and her people.

”The ECB (European Central Bank) has made it clear that without a reform programme for Cyprus the aid can't continue. Someone has to explain this to the Cypriots and I think there's a danger that they won't be able to open the banks again at all,“ he said.:

http://en.mercopress.com/2013/03/20/germany-warns-cyprus-banks-might-nev...

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:33 | 3354162 Sandy15
Sandy15's picture

Already starting to withdraw money from my accounts..........

Don't trust this government ONE BIT!!!!!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:07 | 3354028 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

FedEx and Oracle both miss big time - both -7%+ after hours.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:07 | 3354030 Meremortal
Meremortal's picture

Well, I made money. If you still call that stuff money.

 

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:22 | 3354103 Mark123
Mark123's picture

Your comment pretty much sums up the entire financial "industry"!!!!!!!!

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:47 | 3354192 Awakened Sheeple
Awakened Sheeple's picture

Cat's earnings and forward outlook was grim also. It's significant we didn't make new highs.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 17:42 | 3354208 Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

Beyond stupidity; the markets hanging on every word from the FMOC (Fake Money Only Counts) as if they are going to say anything different.  Benny has promised us the moon and like all good little socialists he will deliver until the end of time or whenever the moneys runs out, whichever comes first.

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 18:32 | 3354433 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

its the same thing every day.

 

open up morning, fade away a bit in afternoon, ramp up into close, sell off in futures overnight, than around 3-4 am, ramp up the futures to bring them green or as close to green as possible before open. repeat daily.

 

i cant fucking wait for this crash to happen, its going to be so fun watching it happen. hopefully its the entire global markets that crash along with us.

 

 

Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:16 | 3354798 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

SP500 hourly rides along channel support.

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/sp500-hourly-turns-fed-continues-pourin...

 

Looks like Fedex's revised earnings that were in the tank are bullish.  Get the Orville Redenbacher - Q1 results are going to be a peach.

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