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WTF Chart Of The Day: China PMI Vs Electricity Production
HSBC's China Flash PMI just printed above expectations at 51.7, disappointing those hoping for more stimulus but just Goldilocks enough to satisfy the world that China is firing on all cylinders... But, and there's always a but, the following chart suggests that the diffusion-driven survey-based PMI data may be just a little different from the hard data on the ground. Of course, everything could have magically turned around in the last 3 weeks (aside from Copper demand and PBoC repo/rev. repo that is). For now, we tip our hat to the well planned PMI print as indicative that all is well in the smog-ridden pig-barren nation but scratch our chin at just what is powering all this growthiness...
HSBC's Flash PMI upticked more than expected but remains in that neverland zone...
and here are the stunning sub-indices showing the 'surges' - hhmm - employment? pricing? even New Export Orders are in 'fence-sitting' mode...
But when judged against the history of a relatively tight relationship to Electricity production... is it any wonder we call it the WTF Chart of the Day...
It seems we are about to witness a jump from -13% YoY decline (as we discussed here the largest ever) to a +10% YoY rise in the span of just one month...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Repeat after me (or lose your head) Those numbers are totally not cooked...
We do know that it was us that scorched the sky. And a billion serfs evidently make good batteries. All your electricity is belong to us.
Let's call in the C.S.I. to study their difference in MO !
If they cooked them, electricity consumption would be higher....
unless...
they did it on a gas stove....
hot air convection.
witness the new 300kw / 500 chinese exercise bike generation brigade.
Nothing to see here, move along.
You can only use indicative economic indicators once, then from there on in they are molested. That poor bastard who compiled the energy consumption chart last month is now a organ donar.
All those efficiency upgrades -- they kicked in all at once!
+1000 - That's funny!
Those Chinese numbers all look alike to me.
<Serious sarcasm>
Larry FREAKING FINK is buying China, PMI and all, the arrogant turd
Is there anything a Fink won't buy though?
+1 lol.
They all my look alike, but they certainly sound alike ... except for the tone
Solar? Wind? Candles?
I just dropped my power bill by buying a whole boatload of LED lights bulbs. Maybe ALL of China did the same thing last month. It would explain the drop in power usage and where do you think those bulbs were manufactured? Nah, go for the simplest explaination, they're lying.
In a fit of irony, they're offshoring jobs to Detroit because of fuel cost inflation.
The Chinese hooked up the mysterium generators just in time.
Don't stare at the roots, just pick the fruit.
- the bernak
Allow me to rant.
How could a human being with right fucking mind, believe any kind of numbers coming from a bank called HSBC which is the central bank of money laundering for all criminal in the world?
they call them sheep for a reason ekm.
Fonz, I am enraged. I have no problem reading data from chinese gov because we know the elite has to survive, they have a reason, it's a topic for humor.
But, data from criminals like HSBC? Are we serious? What the fuck is this?
ekm we are gone baby...gone. This is so far off the charts it's not even funny. No pun intended (alright it was kinda intended.
Seriously man, this stuff can wear on you mentally.
Just came back from the gym. 40 minutes of cardio.
I needed the rant. I'm good now.
"Here be sea monsters..."
HSBC are pirates matey. It's three sheets to the wind. Where's the buried treasure?
Ekm
I see a lot of things these days where I ask the same question. I have come to the conclusion that the whole fucking world is out of its mind and people will just grab onto anything.
have u been relatively quiet or am i becoming paranoid?
Because it's called propaganda.
All media says exactly the same things over and over and over.
That's why I quit watching TV since 2001.
We are almost there, it's almost over. They are just trying to lure as many as they can, same as in the runup to 2008.
nobody's falling for it this time.
People would love to be suckers, but they have no money. At DOW 15k, it's just too expensive.
When dow drops to 6k, you'll see all suckers coming in to play.
Wonder who buys lottery tickets? All broke people buy them.
In a world of totalitarianism, my friend, you do not get to choose to play. You have to play - ask some North Koreans. They are so far gone, they'll either kill you for suggesting such a thing, or, not understand what you are talking about (can you imagine the insanity?) Meanwhile, where are we? You don't want to use your money? Well, we'll just take it. You are going to hide it? We'll just inflate it away. You complain? We'll lean on you and take your land. You don't cheer when Dear Leader addresses us? Well, we have camps for that kind of mental retardation.
Do yourself a favor. Throw your TV set out. You'll have plenty of time to think straight thereafter.
If you want to watch a sport game, go to a pub. That's what I do.
excellent advice.
pulled the plug on the tube in 2008, look at me now
All oozed out? :-)
I think that that might have been the same year as me. Ah, twas a good year! Since then I have gotten a new wife/partner, a farm (reduced risk of boating accidents!) and am much happier! My teeth might even be whiter!
Just say NO to TV!
Left home when I was 18, didn't have a TV... missed it for about two weeks... Then I realized that had been wasting hours every day... have hated it since. That was 42 years ago.
I raised kids on no TV. Later, as adults, when they had a choice, they opted out voluntarily.
The disadvantage has been that I have found the world around me changing in bizarre and unsettling ways. I realize the common cultural thread is that damn box, but as I am seriously out of touch it has been much like watching some macabre play.
If only I could unplug from the world. Hmmm... Perhaps there is something in this prescription drug craze after all...
Don't overdose on Corruptol™! :>D
Slightly off topic, but should be of interest:
I don't have the link but do a search for manufactures of "Exit Bags". These are specifically made for somewhat painless assisted suicide. You get in the bag, release this special gas and your gone in very short order, as the gas tricks the body into thinking your breathing normal oxygen.
Who would think up and market something like this? It like leaving a loaded revolver on the nightstand next to someone with major depression.
"..Do yourself a favor. Throw your TV set out.."
did that 15 years ago - push-info, never again, books, the web, without places like zerohedge I would lose my sanity - I always knew something was so very wrong
Many folks get confused about electricity. Changing what generates it STILL doesn't make it NOT electricity, and thus not show up in the charts.
They're not using electricity (doesn't matter how it would be produced). The ONLY way to explain this drop would be one of (or both?):
A) They've decentralized their power grid (ha ha, "decentralization" in China!);
B) Horses! Laugh all you want, but if you really want horse-power WTF do you think? OK, if you're not buying this then I'll have to change the provider of power to... humans! Lots of humans in China, yes? And the employment numbers look pretty good!
On a serious note... I really appreciate articles such as these. Watching energy use is, IMO, the ONLY real way to cut through all the BS.
I've heard of people who wanted good investment data on China and started getting their own numbers. It turns out that economic data in China is often classified and trying to get it is espionage (a capital offense). How good are the electrical numbers I wonder. Are they also subject to government control? My info is from a friend who does the data for a major agricultural commodity who says no one should try it with "no official cover". If you work for the USDA the Chinese may lie to you but they won't shoot you. Is electrical usage different than an ag commodity?
Chinese New Year, everything shuts down for a week and it is not the same month each year (lunar calendar), so you have to match up CNY months. January last year, February this year. Got to compare apples with apples, or maybe durian with durian
If they're shut down then how did all the other numbers INCREASE? Inventory turns? (again, if they're shut down then that would mean that shipping wouldn't really happen, yes?)
Maybe the generation number is a hard "meter" grid total and the other numbers are "Franken Numbers"..... have to go back to the original article (if there is no pay wall) and see what they cited for the sources... good question
Chinese New Year in February - 10th to 25th - one week off work may explain low February number.
Sorry, almost duplicate from another
If this is the case (which I'm not doubting) then WHY are all the other numbers UP? Can SOMEONE please explain this to me? My brain just doesn't seem to be able to drum up a reason.
When everything was turned off for a week, someone forgot about the electric abacus and left it running the whole time.
So, it was the abacus that was racking up all the production numbers?
Precisely.....ummmm, I mean yes.
Phew! And for a minute I was worried things were being made up!
Remember, "it's not a lie if YOU believe it." (George Costanza)
Old George would have made millions on Wall St. Millions. A drone perfectly adapted to his environment.
That's a priceless line/quote!
Really, a down-arrow?
Psst! It's FUCKING HUMOR!
Seer you are getting a lot of negs these days and your comments don't seem that offensive to me... wtf?
Who ever you pissed off should come out call you on it.
Stealth Junking is for wimps...... unless of course you are junking Robo...
China is mining bitcoins, that's why!
With abaci.
e-lectricity production has to increase due to the drain on the electrical grid from all the people burning on the power lines. No training, no safety, no oe gives a shit about being electrocuted.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiiiight, um, I was thinking the same thing.
<page over Wal-Mart PA> security isle 2
When I was in Manila I got mesmerized by all the electrical wiring (took lots of pictures!). Gets to be downright scary looking! Recall seeing this huge (plywood?) panel that must have had a 100 meters on it held way aloft on a power pole. And plenty of folks' electrical apprenticeships don't last...
I'll be gone, you'll be grounded.
I have actually done that myself when I was about 18 years old, right after communism collapsed.
Feb was Chinese new year, of course the electrical demand was down significantly. China just avoided a hard landing (in theory anyway) and had 2 weeks off for New Year, I am surprised electrical production was not lower. And the whole adding Jan + Feb and dividing by 2 is only moderately effective in this case. To see power production spike following Chinese New Year should not be a conspiracy theory. Yelling about realistic numbers just makes us seem more out of touch when we yell about valid discrepancy's .
With that said, remember that HSBC analysts just admitted to being overweight the entire Asian region about 3 days ago on CNBC and Marketwatch. You have to be a cheerleader when you are heavily invested in a specific sector. Everyone does it, so no surprise there.
hmmm...what were the readings o the other chinese new years'?
more likely to be the Xi leadership hand-over?
And what about the other stats, which tend to show increases?
Maybe someone can show what it was the previous YoY reporting (2012 vs. 2011)? And, yes, better would be apples to apples... Still don't know how the other stats show an increase (perhaps I'm not reading them as necessarily correlating with the months? If so I figured someone would have been kind enough to point that out to me.)
Good comment.
Cheney is a serious traitor and his actions were necessary for the banksters to take over the Federal Government of the United States of America.
Looks like noise. Isn't the PMI a composite of manufacturer sentiment? It looks like most of these are neutral.
And do the power numbers include residential?
YoY changes in power consumption looks fairly weak for any conclusions.
Chinese new year. Everything stops.
Plus seasonally adjusted data.
HTH.
No container ships slipping by the East Lamma channel. Never seen so little traffic in the past few years.
Apocrypha to be sure. But damn my lying eyes.
Seems more like the WTF ZH article of the day.