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Global Slowdown Accelerates Driven By Confidence / New Orders Plunge

Tyler Durden's picture


Goldman's 'Swirlogram' places the global industrial cycle squarely in the 'Slowdown' phase as growth momentum fades rapidly. Driven by plunges in aggregate confidence levels and New Orders (less inventories) - as well as CAD and AUD data - this reinforces last month's preliminary view of a slowdown beginning. Goldman notes we could potentially see weaker global activity over the coming months. Is it any wonder we are seeing bellweather names missing in a big (un-unique) way.



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Thu, 03/21/2013 - 19:55 | 3359874 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Leave it to Goldman Sachs to state the obvious.........but I wonder, will the opposite of their forecast be true, or does that only apply to the advice they give paying clients?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 19:58 | 3359883 localsavage
localsavage's picture

From what I am seeing on my end and with talking to vendors, orders are down and the best anyone can say is that they hope it will pick up soon.  Hope in my opinion is the key word.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:01 | 3359893 Fukushima Sam
Fukushima Sam's picture

That whooshing sound you hear is the economy being flushed down Goldman's swirlogram.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:08 | 3359915 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The plot does resemble the path of a floater in the toilet bowl during a flush.


Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:14 | 3361055 icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture


Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:14 | 3359927 knukles
knukles's picture

You know, it's ever so disconcerting when south of the equator where water swirls the other way to watch your poops flush backwards.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:28 | 3359962 Gromit
Gromit's picture

Off to Buenos Aires in a couple of weeks....I'll check it out.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:49 | 3360014 machineh
machineh's picture

Bring fresh hundred-dollar bills ... get 8.5 pesos per dollar on the grey market (vs official rate 5.1).

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:53 | 3360022 Gromit
Gromit's picture

May take my coin collection also....

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 10:49 | 3365425 thewhitelion
thewhitelion's picture

Say hi to Simon for me.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:11 | 3359916 knukles
knukles's picture

Lemme get this in perspective.
All the "normal" (as in irrational) forecasters are looking for 3% growth.
The reality versus those forecasts is 1.5% growth.
So if the Swirl-o-Gram's predictive powers are anything as in suggesting the 3% goes to 1.5% then the reality of it is the 1.5% goes to 0%
Emboldened with the continual cuts in taxes, huge real returns on savings, no inflation, plentiful jobs, ebullient consumer confidence, manifest political leadership at all levels, significant curtailment of waste, theft and fraud by all governmental entities guaranteeing the delivery of double the level of services at half the costs and the reallocation of financial resources away from non productive financial means, separation of commercial and investment banking and serious legal actions taken against the bankers and their friends, we can be sure that the animal spirits of the American Consumer will rise above all elde, leading thje world to a new and bountiful awakening.

Fuckin' Awesome.
Hand-jobs all around, boys!


Why the fuck even pretend anymore?
It sucks and is gonna get worse because nobody is doing a damned thing to make it better.
Perhaps the homeless mole people savages in the NYC underworld might start by eating a certain economist....

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:19 | 3359945 Raynja
Raynja's picture

will she at least spit on it so i can pretend its a blowjob?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:45 | 3360003 monopoly
monopoly's picture

That was perfect knukles, just perfect. +1

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:28 | 3360127 Seer
Seer's picture

For years I've been saying that growth is dead.  This is all based on the core/fundamental fact that we cannot have perpetual growth on a finite planet.  This last bubble IS the last wad.

The only thing left to do is what we HAVE to do, and that's to reassess how we live.  LESS will be the direction.  It was always going to be.  And NO money printing or set of "policies" is going to alter our projection.  This is the slinky down the staircase, it's what I refer to as "economies of scale in reverse" (the good news is that a lot of materialistic crap is going to go away; the bad news is that most people that are "employed" today are making that crap)

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:05 | 3360319 Tijuana Donkey Show
Tijuana Donkey Show's picture

Here in America, waistlines grow every day, so growth isn't dead, it just has high blood pressure, diabetes, and a Rascal runabout.  

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:19 | 3359946 MrTouchdown
MrTouchdown's picture

"Hope", in my opinion, is a four letter word. So is "Fair".

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:31 | 3361270 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

And "hope" is not a plan.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 19:56 | 3359879 Motorhead
Motorhead's picture

Swirlogram, bitchez!

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:43 | 3359992 Renewable Life
Renewable Life's picture

There must be some real sweet smelling shit, buried in the fine print at these Cyprus banks, Because they are setting this up as the "end of the world" scenerio!!!!

These motherfuckers are going to steal 40% of the wealth in uninsured accounts and then freeze everyones money across the board for weeks if not months, with the exception being you can withdraw 160 Euro a day!! Holy shit, things MUST be soooooooo much worse then we can imagine, or these guys are suicidal! if you had 90,000 euro in a insured savings account, it would take you a fucking year to withdraw half of it, with these capital controls!!!!

I'm Bullish riots and dead bankers and police in Europe!

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:31 | 3360145 Seer
Seer's picture

"Holy shit, things MUST be soooooooo much worse then we can imagine"

That's what I figure.  These aren't, contrary to what many would like to believe, stupid people: what they say might sound stupid; but, remember that it is THEY who have been in power and have controlled things (who is the bitches?).  If the answers only come down to one of being stupid or desperate I'd suggest the later.

We've peaked.  That's All Folks!  This thing was never programmed to handle reverse, especially in high speed.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:31 | 3360641 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

I personally think there are many multiples of stated shares of stock long, offset by many multiples of shares short just waiting for this occasion. There is going to be some serious carnage, i'll Cede you that.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:00 | 3359887 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

It looks like the Fed's QEx.x "Liquidator" missile has reversed course and is headed back our way. Women and children to the life boats.

<To the Batcave Robin.>


Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:01 | 3359895 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture


You're right.  That is one of the Apollo test rockets.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:40 | 3359990 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture


The curve represents another batch of faulty Chinese bottle rockets. ;>)

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:01 | 3359892 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

I think it's going to spend a lot of time down in the lower half of that swirlygram....

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:01 | 3359897 BlueCheeseBandit
BlueCheeseBandit's picture

Time for daddy to get some ass.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:04 | 3359905 ronaldawg
ronaldawg's picture

"Don't do me like my daddy did me." - Polly Klaas

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:29 | 3359963 Cangaroo.TNT
Cangaroo.TNT's picture

Boy, what a class act you are.  Pure trash.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:56 | 3360033 Cangaroo.TNT
Cangaroo.TNT's picture

Boo hoo... I was junked by a pedophile. 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:46 | 3361450 HF Critic
HF Critic's picture

Agreed. Polly was 12 when she was abducted and later murdered. Keep this sick shit in your own deranged head, mofo! 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:03 | 3359900 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Nothings been fixed since S&P 666, in fact far worse, while markets have been artificially pumped to disguise the scam. This time when it implodes it's for reelz.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:32 | 3360147 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

That's what I refer to as my "nightmare scenario".  I've mentioned it a few times here.  What if the Fed has the throttle wide open and we go into recession anyway?  We've FORCED a business cycle recovery every time for the last 30 years by lowering rates and increasing liquidity.  Now we're at the floor on that tactic- ZIRP and QE4EVA.  What's left?

That's when what SHOULD have happened starting in '08 may just happen anyway, with everyone powerless to stop it.  It's when even infinite liquidity is insufficent to cover up insolvency.

What happens then is anyone's guess.  Might be deflationary death (less likely), might be hyperinflationary death (more likely), but in either case the nominal changes will no longer be able to disguise the real, as they have for several years now.  I also agreed that whatever happens will likely be more extreme than what would have happened starting in '08 if we had not undertaken the last 5 years of monetary insanity.

In short, up arrow.  Surprised nobody else has jumped in on your comment.


Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:18 | 3360593 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Serious defaltion when it all blows. There will be no money left, only debts.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:54 | 3361738 sandiegoman
sandiegoman's picture

There are great arguments for both the inflation camp and the deflation camp. I just can't get my head around which one it will be!

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:35 | 3360162 Seer
Seer's picture

Thanks for reminding people of the reality.

Yes, not a fucking damn thing to alter any of this has changed.  The reason?  The System cannot DO "reverse."  Forgot to ask the algos what happens when growth is no longer possible.  The severely stretched rubber band is going to be snapping back, 666 here we come... and there it gods, as we wiz by it.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:06 | 3359913 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Ask yourselves, What is the diminishing returns from each $1 of new debt in US economy?


Time capsule article:

Guest Post: Debt Saturation And Money Illusion

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/04/2011 15:55 -0400

Run the present-day numbers. Is Uncle Ben really creating recovery? I think not!

Bernank’s QE in action.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:10 | 3359922 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

they do not call it a death spiral for nothing

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:17 | 3359942 ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Goldmans swirlogram looks like their daily pump and dump client suggestion trading graph...

Just say'n

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:18 | 3359943 stant
stant's picture

dr copper has spoken

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:39 | 3359988 They Tried to S...
They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

Amen Brother...

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:45 | 3360002 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

That is a scary looking chart.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:52 | 3360018 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

It reminds me a little of what NYT looked like back in 2004 before I started trading long put positions on it.  Check this chart:

But, it is the new normal.  Who knows what will happen.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:59 | 3360045 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

'Long on the puts, that is.  Not, the underlying.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:38 | 3360174 Seer
Seer's picture

Hey!  Just BTFD and all will be fine!  Dips are good, and there are dips EVERYWHERE!   BULLISH!

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:21 | 3359949 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Don't worry about goldman, they got plenty.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:42 | 3359998 Dareconomics
Dareconomics's picture

The Markit Eurozone Flash PMIs were released, and they confirm GS' view as far as Europe is concerned.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 20:54 | 3360025 monopoly
monopoly's picture

And the above and what will occur going forward is all due to our corrupt, scum Bankers and CEOs, now and past. They will haunt us till we die. Had we never given in and kept the:

GlassSteagall Act 

Then maybe a lot of the carnage would never have happened. For then banks loaned money at reasonable rates, with good collateral, and they made a small profit between bid and ask. But no. They had to rule Washington, Wall Street and turn into the scum of the earth. Well, they have their cars, houses, boats, clothes and jets. And it bothers none of them what they have destroyed. Because scum have no heart, no conscious and could care less about other people. May they all rot in Hell.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:08 | 3360071 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

'Good question.

I have been wondering this same thing for almost a decade.

'Bill Clinton to blame (as much as any one other politician?  'Signed Glass-Steagall's quasi-reform-repeal into law -- with a buch of other dems and repubs.)

But, it still seems a little hard to be sure, at least to me.  It's a little hard to tell exactly what to blame the most given the huge number of inter-related causes, it seems.
I hugely attribute this to fannie, freddy, HUD, Et. Al. due to attempts to "subsidize" various market sectors.

When ever the govt' trys to make something more affordable in a formerly more-free market, the opposite always seems to occur, historically.

Did Glass-Steagall’s reform/repeal make it worse, or was it more like pouring gasoline on an already burning fire, thus making more intense in the short run, but causing the fire to otherwise burnout more quickly if no more wood is added?

If there is pain to be endured, I would much prefer getting it over with immediately to minimize the suffering, but the politicians always seem to do the opposite.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:12 | 3360083 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

And the, of course, they added even more wet wood to the fire, and it seems it is just starting to start smoking hard again in the prelude to . . .


Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:27 | 3360125 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

'Also, first enforcement of the CRA . . . Bill Clinton and others dems and repubs, right?  Or, were there no repubs on this one?  'Can't recall.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:28 | 3360419 Seer
Seer's picture

There are ALL but potholes on the road to the edge/end of the perpetual-growth-on-a-finite-planet-meme.

Sure, all the combustibles helped speed up the fire, but the match was struck a LONG, LONG time ago, so long ago that it's absurd to try and hang the source of all this on anyone of recent years (silly).

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:36 | 3360165 notquantumdum
notquantumdum's picture

Otherwise, 'Sorry, if your tone is a little extreme for me.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:41 | 3360194 Seer
Seer's picture

It was NEVER a matter of IF, but WHEN.  The underlying premise of it ALL is still THE source of the problem: a system predicated on perpetual growth on a finite planet.  If people are going to believe in this then they'll suck down any shit...

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:23 | 3360110 tahoebumsmith
tahoebumsmith's picture

It's Oct 2007 all over again. Euphoria everywhere, no bubbles, total denial. Dow sitting at 14,357 and everyone living the American Dream. Then it started to slow down and reality set in... First Bear Stearns, Then Lehman,GM.GS,BOA,USPS,FANNIE,FREDDIE,AIG,CITI ,Chase, Wa Mo, Wells,ect,ect..who was next? Well in came the FED on their white horse and decided to hoodwink all the fools and play lets pretend to prop up the disaster. Instead of letting the chips fall where they may , they decided to inject some 15 TRILLION into the economy. Now remember this injection was not real money, it was only money they printed and handed out. All was better, Wall St. celebrated , Central Banks across the globe had money to burn and interest rates fell to a low .25%. Free money everywhere, things were on the rebound thanks to the printing press, nothing more. Here we are 5 years later and the economy is finally on the mend, or is it? GDP is lower then it was in Oct 2007, Unemployment is about 26% higher, inflation is up nearly 15%, total household debt is up nearly 7%, Our National debt then was 8.6 Trillion and today we are at 16.8 trillion, the FED'S balance sheet was 800 billion and today it's reaching the 3 TRILLION dollar mark. So as you europhia bitchez stroke yourself just remember Oct 2007. We are 20T more in the hole then we were then and when this shitstorm Bernanke and Geithner brought on falls apart there will be no bailouts..There will be no easy fix, it will be the end. You motherfuckers have built a global casino touching the Quadrillion mark when you add in the Derivitive clusterfuck. You motherfuckers have preety much put the nails in my children's future. And you know what? When this shit starts rolling down hill none of you son of bitchez will be able to be found. Go fricken figure?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:42 | 3360203 Seer
Seer's picture

Killjoy! </sarc>

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:48 | 3360235 Savyindallas
Savyindallas's picture

Let's take their money, their mansions and kill them and their families. Actually their families can go work in sweat shops in Indonesia  or Beijing. Spare their dogs  - I'm sure they have very expensive, fine dogs. 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:31 | 3360431 Seer
Seer's picture

We'd still left with a system that's not going to be able to provide for greater extraction rates from the planet.

IF you had all "their" "money" what would YOU do?  And how would this be different than what TPTB have been doing?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:24 | 3360619 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Thats a good one. How many houses do these guys have? Doesn't Mr. Green Gore spend like 40k a month on energy? There is plenty to go around if these guys quit hogging it.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:23 | 3360610 CustomersMan
CustomersMan's picture


They will be able to be found, that is their worry. Whether its Paraguay or somewhere else, the world is too small to hide out, and they will be discovered, as they will be the only ones living well, with stolen money. It doesn't matter if they go underground, there will be ways to find them in their holes, and the masses will take back what was stolen and exact a price for the effort in finding them. There will be NO ESCAPE.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 12:57 | 3362665 LooseLee
LooseLee's picture

Oh, they WILL be found; one bullseye at a time....

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 23:42 | 3364923 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

Curious in a positive way - where/how did you get to $15 trillion pumped in ?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 21:57 | 3360268 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

So what's the trade? 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:51 | 3360682 CustomersMan
CustomersMan's picture

RE: Glass-Stegal's Repeal, The FED, and their roles in the unfolding disaster:

If you want to blame someone, an excellent target is Sandy Weill. He was born on the day Glass-Stegal was passed and made it his life-long quest to have it repealed. His company's fucked investors royally (really hard in their asses) over many, many years, at a multitude of firms, consistently, I saw it first hand. He was the one who created the TBTF behemoths (ie Travelers and then Citi Group). He had the blessings of the FED, worked hand in hand with them, had unlimited credit  through them to accomplish the "Tribe's" goal of financial hegemony worldwide.

He was a vehicle for what they wanted to do but couldn't officially undertake. His philanthropy (if there truly is any) in NO WAY makes up for his unbridled greed, quest for power, loyalty to the "Tribe" at the taxpayer's expense, and intentional harm to America and the world. So if you hate the FED, he was an integral part of the grand scheme to fuck us over the last 40+ years.


And look what the repeal of Glass-Stegal has wrought on America and the world. A crime too big to go unpunished.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:33 | 3361275 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

I'm gonna' hold my breath until I get my next swirl-o-gram.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:07 | 3361536 HF Critic
HF Critic's picture

Does anyone have the exact data points for the GLI? I'm looking at the Swirlogram from the link above, which was published in May 2012, and would like to combine the two charts.

In comparing that one ( with the one in this article it does indeed look a lot like turds circling the bowl, and we all know where that leads.

Perhaps our only hope is for an overflow situation, which leads to a reset?

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