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Initial Claims Continue Grind Lower, Prior Revised Higher
With record numbers of people out of the labor force, and hundreds of thousands falling off each month, it is no surprise that the grind lower in initial claims continues - after all there is only so long one can request insurance benefits, now that extended claims are limited. In the week ended March 16, initial claims rose from an upward revised 334K (was 332K and merely the latest in an infinite series of prior upward revisions) to 336K, just below the expected 340K, even as NSA claims declined more to 299K. It would not be surprising that with the current of labor force exodus we get a 100K-handle unadjusted print soon as the pool of eligible workers who collect benefits shrinks to record levels. A tad defensive BLS was quick to note that unlike prior weeks, no states number were estimated. Continuing claims rose also, from an upward revised 3048K to 3053K, above the expected 3050K. Overall a snoozer of a report. The biggest surprise, however, was in the emergency extended benefits, which has continued it abnormally erratic weekly pattern, with this time 136K people falling off, following last week's weekly surge. A tiny 1.8 million Americans are now on extended claims, nearly 1.1 million below the 2.9 million last year. Curious who the people applying for SS disability are? Now you know.
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Prior Revised Higher
Didn't see that coming.
HAHA.........The economy is ALWAYS improving, right?
All I can say is economy is doing great. The stock market is booming.
Broken fundamentals are simply superb news for Wall Street because it is just an excuse for the Feds to keep printing money and melting up the market.
The new paradigm is "Worse off we are, better off we will be" or put in other words "Fed pays us to stay fucked".
DOW above 11k lost any meaning of being a market. It is simply owned by primary dealers.
Fundamentally there is absolutely no difference between DOW at 12k or Dow at 20k.
there's pollution visible in the initial-claims data
http://oi49.tinypic.com/ir2e54.jpg
must be because of those headwinds
YES! Improving for the best, improving for the worst, but ALWAYS improving, THAT'S THE SPIRIT!
Where did that spike in xag come from? I like it!
That looks like a pretty cyclical perturbation dying out?
Maybe we are in the Matrix?
pods
Fed's signal processors helping to "stabilize" these figures.
meanwhile underneath the surface the annual rate of initial claims is trending higher
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-XSqCcyU7y-k/UUsBW8OoYsI/AAAAAAAAjns/SghfqXVLmJ...
we need to eliminate min wage.. there's crap loads of work to do out there ..
Like shinin' the masta's shoes!
All hail MATH...
This is how you know were getting closer.
When that number drops to 200K chaos will begin in the streets.
It's ehm... something? Right?
Quit your dead end job go back to school and find a coed to live with. Buy silver and live the life of Garfeild. So far the revolution is not doing too bad.
The level of 'mis'reporting &/or 'non'reporting about 'Claims' is astounding. Any one of us would properly be fired from our jobs if month after month we mechanically, idiotically or 'purposefully' delivered information from a national government organization without adequate coverage of what was in this information. Case in point, the growing 'non-participation' levels.
I pay serious money to a variety of 'research services' (including one that is very popular & highly touted right now ... I will not name them here so as not to publicly embarass them) that continues to selectively report what is going on. Somewhere soon I am going to cancel these. It is not a function that I want or need to see information that conforms to my 'bias' ... it is about objectively getting information that is actionable or possesses sufficient information to make one pause, reconsider or examine an issue more closely. Yet 'serivce' after 'bureau' after 'pay-for'blog' after 'professional firm' continues to do this ... especially something as relevant to economic 'context' as the non-participation rate trend & implication.
A doctor, lawyer, engineer, accountant or any 'professional' would get sued for professional malpractive if they did this with their clients but the 'news media' including the financial media, continue to engage in 'shape-shifting, narrative framing' "news reporting ..... they get away with it with absolutely no accountability .....
"ny 'professional' would get sued for professional malpractive if they did this with their clients but the 'news media' including the financial media, continue to engage in 'shape-shifting, narrative framing' "news reporting ..... they get away with it with absolutely no accountability"
Exactly, don't forget about the realtors, the commercials lately have been saying its a great time to buy (rates never lower, things have picked up briskly and won't last at these prices, blah fucking blah). The realtors have been guilty as anyone else in the financial markets especially those having worked in real estate more than 12-15 years, I'm frankly a little surprise some of them haven't been beaten to death by someone who just got screwed over by a massive drop in the value of their homes. Who else could screw someone in a loss of 50k to several hundred thousand and get away with it?
After you cancel them, let us know which ones you kept ... ;-)
I'm a firm believer that businesses learned this lesson the last time around, and instead of having their uninsurance premiums skyrocket as they let employees go, hired fewer employees going forward AND are reducing headcount via atrritition rather than direct firing.
Weekly claims are not made of the same stuff they were four or five years ago. And it is certainly not a leading indicator. It is a trailing indicator.
Real employment growth, year over year, continues to trend downward. But even that is a lagging indicator.
The leading indicator? Year over year corporate profit growth. And that is well below the level needed to expand the employment ranks over the next 12 months.
fUNEMPLOYMENT bitchez!