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UBS' George Magnus Asks "Why Are The European Streets Relatively Quiet?"

Tyler Durden's picture





 

The wave of social unrest that rumbled across Europe between 2008 and 2011 has become less intense. This has come as a cause for relief in financial markets, as it has helped to underpin the marginalization of ‘tail risk’ already addressed by the ECB and the Greek debt restructuring. And yet the latest crisis over the Cyprus bail-out/bail-in not only shoots an arrow into the heart of the principles of an acceptable banking union arrangement, if it could ever be agreed, but also signifies the deep malaise in the complex and fragile trust relationships between European citizens and their governments and institutions. Some people argue that protest, nationalist and separatist movements are just ‘noise’, that the business of ‘fixing Europe’ is proceeding regardless, and that citizens are resigned to the pain of keeping the Euro system together. UBS' George Magnus is not convinced, even if public anger is less acute now than in the past, it is far from dormant, and its expression is mostly unpredictable. So is the current lull in social unrest a signal that the social fabric of Europe is more robust than we thought, or (as we suggested 14 months ago) is the calm deceptive?

Another systemic problem

Social unrest is a systemic phenomenon, which, according to an OECD report, meets two principal criteria. It is highly uncertain, complex and ambiguous; and it is highly likely to generate ripple effects into other sectors of the economy and society, possibly leading to the toppling of governments, or even political systems. Although European social unrest since the crisis in Greece began has claimed a small number of fatalities and considerable damage to property, it has been notable more for the public expression of lack of trust in the institutions of government, including in Brussels. If a rising number of people give up on the willingness and ability of their institutions to address grievances, then the lull is most likely deceptive.

We have been here before. The economic and political context of the 1930s was, of course, different. Then there was much historical and unresolved geo-political baggage, and a rupture of the political centre as two radically different ideological veins erupted from the backlash against free trade and the gold standard. One championed radical social reform, the other what may be euphemistically called ‘nation-building’ 5 . And there was no EU. But the problem today, as then, is the same, namely the inadequacy of mainstream, political channels to address rising public concern about the loss of economic security, social stability and, yes, cultural identity6. How else to explain both the rise of Spain’s indignados, and other similar national protest movements in Europe, and the increase in nationalist, populist and separatist sentiment, and representation in national parliaments from Greece, France, and Spain to Finland and the Netherlands, and now Italy?

Via George Magnus, UBS:

...

 

Still an austerity zone

 

Even though the financial crisis in Europe has faded, for the time being at least, the economic stress nurturing protest movements hasn’t. The best that can be said is that the incidence of austerity may not be as significant as it was in 2010-11

 

...

 

Backlash link to austerity

 

Let’s assume nothing changes, and that while European elites debate how – or if – they can build strong European banking, fiscal and economic institutions, with the required transfer mechanisms between creditors and debtors, the economic lot of European citizens, an unhappy one for five years now, shows no improvement. This seems a decent assumption.

 

...

 

The principal economic lesson is that an austerity regime with recurring reductions in public outlays won’t work a) when the private sector is trying to delever and shrink liabilities at the same time b) when it is a generic phenomenon and c) when its principal impact is to depress the level of money GDP and sustain the economy in a liquidity trap. But thanks to some interesting empirical work, another lesson concerns the corrosive and dangerous effects of large and sustained austerity in creating a social backlash that results in greater uncertainty, and therefore inertia, when it comes to corporate hiring and capital spending. As a result, output and public sector tax revenues suffer, reinforcing the negative dynamic between debt and the economy.

 

...

 

when expenditure cuts, specifically, rise to more than 2% of GDP, and particularly when they rise towards or over 5% of GDP, the number and the severity of incidents of unrest rise sharply.

 

...

 

Self-evidently, there have been heightened levels of social unrest and shocks to the political system in Greece, Spain, Portugal and Italy, but not in the UK or Ireland, or in the US, for that matter, though neither the US nor the UK, for example, have been immune to social unrest, sometimes requiring the force of the state to suppress it.12. But the main difference between many incidents of social unrest and the ones that damage the social fabric and the economic environment is the impact (sometimes more perceived than real, perhaps) of highly restrictive budgetary measures. Some governments may be better able to implement and absorb them, and sustain the trust or belief in citizens in perseverance. Mostly, this comes down to the robustness of local institutions, and the performance of leaders, as well as culture and history.

 

The most fundamental manifestation of this damage is, of course, unemployment. But this is only the most visible sign of the upheaval in Europe’s famed social model, and overlooks other important social and economic fault lines, including stagnant or declining real wages, rising income inequality, levels of youth unemployment of between 25% and 50%, and the rise in the numbers of long-term unemployed.

 

These phenomena didn’t begin with the financial and Euro crises, of course, but they have certainly been exacerbated by it and by the response of governments, and citizens are certainly making the connection, regardless.

So why are the streets relatively quiet?

The short answer is we don’t know. None of the reasons we can think of add up to much, but judge for yourself. It could have something to do with Europe’s rapid ageing demographic transition. The proportion of young adults, aged 15-24 has already been falling from peak levels seen in the mid 1980s, and is on track to decline further in the next 20 years. The proportion of 15-59 year olds, or what we might imagine as the part of the population most likely to express non-voting anger, is peaking now, but a significant decline is predicted. Perhaps the baby boomers have expended their protest energy!

 

Rapid growth in, and a rising proportion of, the numbers of young people, say aged 15-29, certainly feed the potential for social protest and upheaval. But they also need a catalyst, which could be the emergence of high inflation.

Empirically, there is an unequivocal association, but this is best applied, in contemporary times at least, to the experience of emerging and developing countries, for example, as in the Arab Spring. Although the European upheavals in the 1960s and 1970s were set against a backdrop of rising inflation, those in the 1930s and today are the product of depression and awkward questions of self-determination, not inflation.

Perhaps the relative calm in Europe has something to do with European family structures. The Bank Credit Analyst recently published a chart, emphasizing the role of the family as a shock absorber. The authors suggest that the countries with the highest youth unemployment rates are also those with the highest proportion of young adults living with their parents, who fulfill the role of effecting transfers and economic and social support.

We are not sure about this one either, although having an extended family structure on which to rely is clearly a mitigating factor against poverty and social exclusion. But the two variables may simply be spuriously correlated since both represent symptoms of a depressed economy. In any event, those countries with the highest youth unemployment and numbers living at home have already claimed the bragging rights for anti-austerity protest, while six of the other eight countries have been characterized by fallen or weakened governments, and the rise of nationalist and anti-immigrant political parties and policies.

A conclusion to this discussion is not possible.

 

In a benign outcome, the potential for social disorder will be defused by a new approach to economic burden-sharing, a re-sequencing of the pursuit of austerity and growth objectives, and steady progress towards the establishment of credible and trusted European banking, economic and political institutions, including financial transfer mechanisms. Motherhood, to be sure, and this has at least two vital caveats, namely the willingness of Germany and other northern European countries to accept significant sovereignty compromises, and the implications for the EU project, if this level of integration proves a bridge too far for UK voters in the promised 2017 referendum.

Social and political upheavals would doubtless haunt the worst-case outcome, where muddling through leads nevertheless to a fragmentation of the Eurozone, or, in extremis, a collapse, in spite of OMTs and the like. The possible consequences, including for the social fabric of Europe, have been well aired in the last couple of years.

The middle way, so to speak, is a muddling through that never scales the successful outcome hurdles, but carries on regardless. Political bonds, maybe fear, sustain the Euro system, but European leaders are unable to reach an agreed and acceptable framework for durable economic recovery and full integration. This outcome describes the status quo, and is the base case for most people. But it is also about stagnant, low growth, persistent high unemployment, retreating targets for debt sustainability, more bail-outs and bail-ins, latent financial instability, and likely sovereign default. The current Eurozone news could not be more apt, and doesn’t seem like the ideal scenario in which to expect European social unrest and political turbulence to fade away.

 


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Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:25 | Link to Comment icanhasbailout
icanhasbailout's picture

It takes time to boil rope properly.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:47 | Link to Comment Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Fiat currency still adequately conceals the truth and the magnitude of the danger.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:50 | Link to Comment THX 1178
THX 1178's picture

When you say rope you mean frogs right?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:54 | Link to Comment BoNeSxxx
BoNeSxxx's picture

aerosolized diazepam?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:07 | Link to Comment markmotive
markmotive's picture

The one-percent isn't just a US phenom.

Europe's aristocracy is holding their breath hoping the masses don't revolt.

http://www.planbeconomics.com/2013/03/documentary-one-percent.html

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:50 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Orwell was ahead of his time.

Malcolm X was ahead of his time.

The time is now.

We the people have been 'had', 'cheated', 'looted', 'bombed' raped and robbed by the two faced lying politicial elite and their gangster banksters.

Even now, it is not enough to satiate the blood lust of the money brokers.

$16 trillion to pay for Iraq, and now Syria and Iran are the next targets.

All wrong.

How many more people must die for the freak zionist CONgress to get paid its money while it hates the Constitution, Bill of Rights and Declaration of Independence...and its idiot wage slave fans do nothing to stop these freaks.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:10 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The elites are boiling themselves, they just don't realize it.

Sooner or later the house of cards will come down on their heads; just like through all history.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 05:43 | Link to Comment Rip van Wrinkle
Rip van Wrinkle's picture

Correction. It will come down on our heads. Have you learned nothing?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:34 | Link to Comment Silenus
Silenus's picture

It will come down on everyone's head and the mad scramble will begin. Though it will be terrifying and many will die and suffer, including many of our loved ones, I welcome the downfall of the system. There comes a point when the present way of things is intolerable and must end, damn the consequences. 

Witnessing those who were previously complacent and smug shake with terror at the calamity unfolding all around them, and which will swallow them up, is worth any cost to oneself and to others. 

If you fear this eventuality, just give it time. The truth will dawn upon you as it has for so many others: that death is better than a life of slavery, for yourself and for others. So in witnessing others perish and in facing death yourself, you need not feel bad.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 10:05 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

Through out history people have willingly been ruled, willingly committed atrocities, willingly marched of to give their lives in meaningless wars that only enriched those who ruled them and allowed themselves to become desensitized to slavery and poverty.

Even in the formation of our own "free" country we were only willing to grant freedom to a privileged few, i.e. white men. Most in our own formation wanted nothing to do with going against the King.

High crimes and treason listed in the Declaration of Independence continue to occur, only now at a faster pace. During the last depression the ruled stood in lines for soup and bread while banksters and government continued to plan on how manipulate the system in such a manner as to insure their continued to rule.

America's history has been one of theft and oppression. Ask the indians. Ask the slaves. Ask women. Ask chinese workers crippled by the age of thirty by repetitive injury incurred making Iphones for the I U.S.

During a talk at an Occupy rally I posited that if you are going to be true to your movement you may have to give up your Iphones as they are the perfect symbol of profit over people. Well you can imagine how that was received. And I walked away.

Because it is as it has always been.  

 

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:11 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

whoops

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:15 | Link to Comment Silenus
Silenus's picture

I say the elites not only need to be killed, but their families as well. Here's how I think of it. These crooks loot and pillage their own countrymen and the rest of the world for the sake of their legacy - so they can pass their ill-gotten wealth and status to their offspring and so construct feudal dynasties. 

By wiping out their offspring, their legacy is cancelled, all their effort is for naught, and the meaning of their lives is negated. It's the ultimate punishment, rendering their existence a total waste. 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 15:10 | Link to Comment TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

Baby Killer.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:22 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

A revolt has never been won on an empty stomach.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:58 | Link to Comment Silenus
Silenus's picture

A hungry man is an angry man.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:48 | Link to Comment Strut
Strut's picture

Tyler,

It's no different than Occupy... Its too damn cold to protest in most of Europe. Give it another 4-6 weeks and we'll see the White-boy spring.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:13 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

Fortunately Wasington used the cold to his advantage

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:50 | Link to Comment Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

I remember reading an article once (Rolling Stone) how Italian young men can't afford their own place so they fuck in their Fiats.

Pathetic as it sounds, humans will only change when they feel too much pain to stay the same. That is when change happens.

Obviously, living at home at 32 with Mom and Pop and sneaking to the hills to get a piece of ass in a small compact isn't enough pain for them to psychologically bear.

 

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:04 | Link to Comment Strut
Strut's picture

I own a 3000' home with 60 acres, and still like to fuck in my car. I don't see your point.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I'm married XX years so I don't fuck anymore, ever, anywhere.  I have vague recollections of fucking.  I'm pretty sure I enjoyed it a long time ago.  Quite certain I did, actually. 

Well, off to the kid's soccer practice.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:16 | Link to Comment Strut
Strut's picture

Well played sir. I feel for you, and will make her say your name.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:18 | Link to Comment Strut
Strut's picture

xoxo

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 02:45 | Link to Comment StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Yer avatar never fails to get a smirk outa me! :>D

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:19 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

You've got it all wrong... time to screw your brains out WHEN they're at practice   got to take advantage of empty house time    side benefit is that when they're teenagers they tend to hold off irresponsible sex when their parents are doing it

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 05:43 | Link to Comment Lost My Shorts
Lost My Shorts's picture

That's brilliant -- I will remember that last part.  Nothing takes the allure out of sex quite like picturing your 50ish parents doing 69.  But if you only screw while they are out, how do you make sure the teenager knows you are doing it, and has the image vividly in mind?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:30 | Link to Comment MSimon
MSimon's picture

The smell.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:25 | Link to Comment ATM
ATM's picture

yikes!

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:26 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Next time you drive her in the Subaru, play her Beyonce's Bow down bitches song.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:32 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

Fuck under the stands.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:38 | Link to Comment Harbanger
Harbanger's picture

Who?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:28 | Link to Comment MSimon
MSimon's picture

I'm lucky. My great grandfater was making kids into his late 60s. Evidently his genes got passed on to me.

 

I'm thinking of getting a 20 something for a little extra fun if the first mate approves. Well she han't said no yet. I have asked. Hope springs eternal.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:15 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

Im married 20 years and if I wanna fuck I still have to sneak off. Just wish I had a Fiat. Getting a little old to keep falling off the motorcycle

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:24 | Link to Comment cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

Re; Italian 20 somethings.....   good friend goes back regularly.   The 'men' ARE  spoiled children pampered by their mothers so htey don't want to leave home unless they get a wife who replaces their mother.  BUT the women have NO interst in marrying the mother spoiled Italian males and are more than happy to work instead of playing housewife.  Most of the working women are NOT going to settle for sex in a FIat.     so... plumeting marriage and birth rates 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 02:13 | Link to Comment babylon15
babylon15's picture

If by working you women, you're referring to the ones that go and have sex with Berlusconi and other Italian mafia, then yes, they aren't going to settle for anyone with honest money.

 

Unfortunately that's all women I guess, so the non-mafia men have simply given up and don't care anymore.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:12 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

lol...the Women on here may hate me for it but you have a point.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 05:27 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Why do you think soccer is so popular?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 12:34 | Link to Comment L G Butz PhD
L G Butz PhD's picture

there be women here?

seriously?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:58 | Link to Comment JimmyCDN
JimmyCDN's picture

Someone once told me that marrying an Italian woman was the same as pulling a rip cord on an inflatable life raft.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

European streets are relatively quiet...

for the same reason the US stock market is making new all-time highs... reality disconnect!

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:28 | Link to Comment ATM
ATM's picture

It's the printing. It covers up so many sins until it doesn't.

It's a cloaking device that eventually disengages to reveal the horrible truth. The telltale event is always the pick up in velocty of money. That will tell you the people are figuring it out. Once that reaches critical mass it's over.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:45 | Link to Comment Silenus
Silenus's picture

You can hang them without boiling the rope properly. It just takes longer for them to strangle - wholesome entertainment for the whole family!

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 10:39 | Link to Comment Paul Bogdanich
Paul Bogdanich's picture

It is hard gauge whether the questions the author posts are rhectorical or if he is really that blind to others thinking.  The objective answer is obvious.  Eurpoeans do not accept that neo-liberal capitalist ideas or ways are an infalable system or even the best system in the world.  Americans blindy accept that assumption and have been trained to express violent emotion when the assumption is even questioned.  Germany has learned how to game that ideology through the inherent inefficiencies and the Russians vote their pocketbook.  That said the people don't believe it and have not since at least 1940.  Hitler used to rail against capitalist ineffeciencies and how they could not be tolerated by anyone who supported the "volk" (common people - of Germanic blood in that circumstance) under the tag line "International Jewery" which is how he chaged the German system in 1934 through 1939.  Then of course his inherent evil glimpsed what he saw as his own divinity and the predictable consequences followed.  For everyone I might add.  That said when the researchers asked ordinary Germans in 1936, 1937, 1938 and 1939 why the German people put up with the loss of freedoms incurred under the National Socialists (Nazi's) they used to uniformly respond that the restricted frredoms in Germany did not include the freedom to starve to death as under capitalism.  Recognition of this fact is what kept Roosevelt and others from acting  against the early Nazi provocations particularly in Spain.  By 1939 it was too late.  Anyway the story is the same this time.  The leader over there that will ultimately take control is the one who raises the banner "First give us bread and then ask for virtue."  Over here I believe the tag line was "two chickens in every pot."  Being ignorant of basic history is a tragic individual failing when if enough people share the defect it often leads to tragic results on a grand scale.  The current wealth disparity and the allocation of all productivity gains to the top 1% (the stockholders) is the root problem.  Everyone of any education knosw it and its going to cause massive unrest if it is allowed to continue unchecked.            

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 10:55 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

As bad as Europe is - at least they do not have the Chicago Indonesian muslim.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:28 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

The chemtrails are finally kicking in... Soon you'll feel nothing but a mellow buzz [except for that slight 'trigger' that goes off every morning signaling you you to dress up and go get on the treadmill]...

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:29 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

Fluoride too..

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:09 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

You saw?

"Why in the World are They Spraying?" Documentary

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mEfJO0-cTis

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:29 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Act like a Bitchass, get treated like a Bitchass.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:32 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Europeans love being slaves.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:36 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

It is their tradition, and why they hate the USA.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:43 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

They hate us for our 'fifedoms'

~~~

A few centuries back, European peasants, seeking to escape persecution & oppression of fifedoms, built ships & sailed across the ocean blue... and created... A NEW FIFEDOM...

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:51 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Bull$hit, pet. Game on. Your sort lose.

You may think that the world is terrible, and that your pain is unique.

It is not. Choose what to believe in, and defend it. Your position is not unique. It is universal.

I choose the 1620 and all that, and I respect Putin for being a patriot to his country regardless of the thieves in the oligarchy. The oligarch thieves in the USA are YOUR problem. Not mine, pet.

Mind your tone if you wish to communicate.

When hippies were rolling in mud, plain poor boys fought in Vietnam. When oligarchs were robbing Russia, Putin and his men were trying to save their beloved homeland.

Politicians talk. Soldiers do. Voters whine. Pet.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:36 | Link to Comment MSimon
MSimon's picture

Well, I fought in Vietnam AND rolled in the mud with the hippies. Great therapy rolling in the mud. And lo and behold I learn it was medicine too. Will wonders never cease?

There are more endocannabinoid receptors in the body than any other receptor type.

The endocannabinoid system is a major regulator in the body implicated in almost all diseases including cancer.

Medical Marijuana prohibition is a crime against humanity and a violation of the religious precept - heal the sick.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:18 | Link to Comment akarc
akarc's picture

Europeans love being slaves.

And Ameicans don't?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment mkhs
mkhs's picture

It is the nature of the beast. For 18 years, you are taken care of and told what to do/how to act.  You are well trained.  Nuture is preparation for slavery.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Europe collaborated with Nazis, AshkeNazis, and does so now with the Zionist central bankster gangsters who funded socialism, communism, fascism.

Europe is an old feeble weak place, chucking its kids into endless debt servitude, as per usual. hey ho. The Vatican has its new jew corporatist as pontiff. His German jew father would be proud. Or was it his mother. Hard to keep track of all the lies told by the old countries.

 Keep calm, and bull$hit on seems to be the feeble excuse.

Hey ho. Frankly, my dears, fck off and die....the sooner the better for your sort.

Gold, silver, land, agriculture: same as it ever was will protect my family.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:43 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Europe is an old feeble weak place, chucking its kids into endless debt servitude"

note that the article is about how many european families don't chuck their kids into debt servidude

particularly southern european families where the kids are staying in the fully-paid, non-mortgaged homes of their parents, eat from their tables and are not sent into the world to first load up endless debt for their education

you are describing an American phenomenon and projecting it to europe - you might want to switch to the "socialism" basking of moaning how most european countries have state-paid universities and universal health-care (and note how the costs of those differ from the US)

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:59 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"The Vatican has its new jew corporatist as pontiff. His German jew father would be proud. Or was it his mother. Hard to keep track of all the lies told by the old countries"

perhaps it is indeed too hard for you to keep track or make a difference between a "jew corporatist" and a "leftist jesuit catholic priest"

after all, in your country you have this propaganda going on since some 70 years that corporativism, fascism and socialism are the same

funny that your country is the only one in the whole world that thinks so - it sure makes makes your politics quite... simple

perhaps you should start with your home-grown lies before you start to keep track of the old world's ones

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:07 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Europeans can be just as simplistic as Americans (but at least they understand the difference between xenophobia and racism).

Cypress is a good example.  If the banking sector is over 15x times the size of the local economy, then the local deposits are negligible, and the people standing in line at the ATMs don't amount to shit in terms of the scale of the actual problem.  If the Russians account for about half of the banking sector's assets then where do the other half originate from?

Cypress in the EU is analogous to Delaware in the US, in that the low cost of incorporation and relatively low regulatory burden made it haven for Bank incorporation.  The growth of electronic banking over the past 15 years has made Cypress a leading jurisdiction for low-cost electronic banking start-ups... EU citizens who don't have enough savings to justify the carrying costs of full service local bank/brokerage have taken advantage of the lower cost alternatives in "convenient" Eurozone-member Cypress, and now the thieves in Brussels and Berlin demonstrate their utter madness by stealing from the little guys who can't afford to buy financial services in fellow Eurozone-member Luxembourg, and thinking that this is not going to have repercussions on their local streets...

As long as we are being simplistic- the powerful stealing from the poor to give to the rich is a trait endemic to (at least) both Europe and North America.

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 07:30 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

hey redneck, good to see you back. funny that you mention that - did you notice how many things are hidden about the Cyprus Question?

"If the Russians account for about half of the banking sector's assets then where do the other half originate from?" Excellent question. I was of the same opinion like you, but a friend told me something that let me gape and smack my head

Let me see, is there another country full of vibrant, successful SMEs that generate cash to be stashed in Cyprus, an hour flight away? One that was just visited by the US President, perhaps? ;-) Hint: it's not in the EU

Thieves? Don't know, I still see that the Finns, the Dutch and the Germans offering 10bn for a bail-in of Cypriot banks - though only if Cyprus finds another 7bn. "Stealing from the Cypriots" is something that only the Cypriot parliament can do or not do

If this suggestion really came from the "thieves in Brussels and Berlin" then indeed it's an indecent proposal - but offering you a million bucks for a night with your wife is not stealing, in my book

I have to note that the necessary data for such a proposal is anyway something that I would expect the Governor of the Cypriot National Bank to provide

Meanwhile the same governor has found a way to really, really piss off two thirds of his collegues in the ECB council - I suspect by guzzling ELA funds way beyond what they are meant for

And yet, I won't forget that those two banks got in trouble because of Greece - and the real root cause of this chain of events is the sterling advisory work of Goldman Sachs when they Enronized the Greek books with derivative off-balance sheet scams

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:20 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Thanks, the alternating late winter snow and warm days have made me feel under the weather, so I have some free time... 

I think Eurozone leadership are thieves because they proposed to invert the normal liability structure of an impaired bank to the benefit of the bank's owners (equity and debt holders) at the expense of its depositors, and in the process up-end the entire post-Bretton Woods (fiat-era) practice of law and tradition.  It's both irresponsible and inexcusable, unless they were actually trying to bring down the system they claim to want to protect.

Given that Cypress is one of the "cheapest" entry points to the Eurozone banking system I would suspect that it is home to the offshore banking of a lot of worldwide SME's wanting EUR access, especially after Ireland became "problematic".  Hard data is hard to come by since none of the parties involved in negotiations has offered up a proper accounting of "who pays" and "who benefits" under any solution discussed, and this leads to a simplistic of not deceitful public discourse.

But on the bright side- I haven't received any solicitations from bankers in Cyprus asking me to move money there this week...

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:52 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

yes, but again whoever made this indecent proposal only proposed something - it's up to the Cypriot parliament to decide

meanwhile nobody is culpable for levying the great Inflation Tax, eh?

btw, do you write Cypress instead of Cyprus in order to make a point? I find it confusing

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 09:41 | Link to Comment Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

damn spell check, not that I can actually type in any language...

I think you're splitting hairs on the "proposal" - If the FN "proposed" to fix Hollande's mess by seizing the property of any ex-colonials resident in France and returning them to the former colonies empty-handed, would you be as "forgiving"?

Bank liquidations and recaps aren't rocket science, and not even a bottom-tier branch manager in Cyprus would have "proposed" this.  The Germans have issued a non-denial denial pertaining only to their "proposal(s)" for deposits under EUR100K.  Again, the lack of transparency and disclosure coupled with a simplistic and conspiring media leads to a mess of public discourse, or lack thereof.

We are all paying the inflation tax (some more than others), since the the bankers created and mis-priced debt to finance the elected politicians promises without proper valuations.   Negative real interest rates and consequent or subsequent mis-pricing of risk created this whole mess to begin with eventually there will be mean reversion...  

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:54 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Hey ho. Frankly, my dears, fck off and die....the sooner the better for your sort."

this one is so good that I'm tempted to think you are just trolling

the classic answer to that is the one I've seen on endless slogans around the world: "Yankee, go home"

you wrap yourself in a flag for which I - among others - have bled. as an ally. and which still flies over some 700 military bases on the world

but perhaps those protesters have made the colossal mistake of using the wrong vocabulary? should they have jelled "Pets, go home"? Or "Our dears, fuck off and die"?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:24 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

He obviously is just now starting to freak out.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:34 | Link to Comment Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

That question will be long forgotten a week or two from now......or maybe a day or two.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:42 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Please, be careful.

Wit and wisdom are better than weapons.

I for one am fed up with seeing children, women and young men die for the failure of hateful money grubbing slut old men and their hubris, their vanity, and their sick puppets like the Clintons, O'bomba and Bush freaks.

All slap happy tools of the Trilateral Commission, Bilderberg Group, and other crypto-Nazis: the freaks.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:02 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Damn, son, you're all kinds of pissed off, aren't you?  Hold that thought.  You're a bit early with it.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:12 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Dear,

I am a wealthy white woman of the North, and sick of seeing young men die for old men's failures.

It is useful for freak old men to provoke valiant young men in to war.

Wrong. All wrong. Every mother knows this.

IF Michelle had a son, she might be less willing to indulge O'bomba, and wear the fine trinkets and clothes of a well paid warmonger, killing other mother's children while pretending to care about the military on her grand stage.

It is now overdue for Michelle Robinson to live up to her family's name, and stop indulging her failed husband.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:16 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Oh, boy.  Have a nice day.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:38 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Every day is a new day, brother. Believe it, and make it so. Michelle Robinson has an obligation to the North, by her family's name and tradition. C'mon now. Ante up.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:15 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Wealthy White Woman of the North, eh?

Have a soft spot somewhere for a White Man of the Northeast, South, and West?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:29 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Where have you been?> WE send women to war to war these days, they go willing and hand in hand with the administrations goals. Stop your crying old women, and join the new party, yours is over.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:36 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

You must not have any pre-draft age sons. I'm not giving mine up for petro-fodder and hand jobs for rich fucks.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:25 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Were fed up wit being fed up.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:39 | Link to Comment Fix It Again Timmy
Fix It Again Timmy's picture

They will try to keep the SomaPlasma Generators [TVs] going at full blast...

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:40 | Link to Comment Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

Most Europeans are brainwashed drones who accept authority without question - much like Americans have become.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:42 | Link to Comment Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

The loose marijuana laws are keeping the youth quiet,

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:44 | Link to Comment Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Better than vodka.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:47 | Link to Comment MSimon
MSimon's picture

There are more endocannabinoid receptors in the body than any other receptor type.

The endocannabinoid system is a major regulator in the body implicated in almost all diseases including cancer.

Medical Marijuana prohibition is a crime against humanity and a violation of the religious precept - heal the sick.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:44 | Link to Comment olto
olto's picture

I feel so privileged to be here and allowed to know the future, but cannot understand how the brilliant Tyler feels so insecure that he/she has to remind we peons how prescient he/she was.

" So is the current lull in social unrest a signal that the social fabric of Europe is more robust than we thought, or (as we suggested 14 months ago) is the calm deceptive?"

We love you Tyler

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

"I'm gonna toot the horns & ring the bells

'cause I am the man with the clientele

& if you ask me why, I rhyme so well

I'm BIG BANK [HANK], I got clientele"

~Sugarhill Gang

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:45 | Link to Comment The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

The derivative collapse will be the beginning of the social unrest around the globe.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:49 | Link to Comment Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

People are unemployed, or underemployed, but not starving.  Who do you throw a rock at to get a job? An arrest doesn't look good on one's resume, either.

People are fed up, but with ambiguous villians.  Is it politicians (nothing new here), bankers (who, the local clerk, or some unnamed guy in Singapore?) the northern Europeans? (Some of their best friends are probably northern Europeans.) Is it America? yes, for some, just on general principle.  So who's car get's torched at the next protest?

The ZH audience seems to be cheering for violent protest, to be the catalyst for a major economic reset. Our own occupy Wall Street movement fizzled, so why would we expect the Europeans to carry the water, when we went back to drinking the kool aid?

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:00 | Link to Comment Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

Frankly I think it's more likely that we'll see Europeans rise up than the Americans. America is turning into a third world country with half the population on the take from their masters and the rest brainwashed by mass media. Europeans are used to obeying authority but they have a history of rising violently against their masters. I think that may possibly happen eventually but Americans are probably too far gone for that except maybe in a handful of flyover states. I also think that the US government is more likely to crush dissent by any means than European governments. I don't see the US Government quitting in the face of massive unrest whereas Euro governments have done so in the past.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:05 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I also think that the US government is more ABLE to crush dissent by any means than European governments.

Fixed it for ya.  Now it makes more sense.

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:06 | Link to Comment Coke and Hookers
Coke and Hookers's picture

Good point.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:43 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

More willing to, that's for sure.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:19 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

The sleeping giants takes a lot to be awakened.

If they all wake up at the same time it won't matter how many police or military they try to muster; GAME OVER.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:35 | Link to Comment MrNude
MrNude's picture

Chris Dorner regardless whether he was right or wrong showed it ultimately doesn't take that much to put these jokers, the media and law enforcement on the backfoot. Take the control of fear away from them and it's a turkey shoot as they start panicking. 

Now that was just one man with some military experience going crazy in LA, now think of all the battle tested veterans from two recent wars walking about the country that could go John Rambo if shit hits the fan.

Why do you think Feinstein and the others where shitting themselves about Veterans having access to guns recently?

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:38 | Link to Comment olto
olto's picture

@$bags

You don't have to worry about us ZH zombies---we are just here for the adrenalin rushes---just 'looki-loos' kicking tires.

OWS failed as we applauded-----we are just ranting cunts, but

We love you, Tyler

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:20 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Ben?  Timmy?  Holder?  or maybe...Jack Lew?

"Buy Stawks!  Everything is great!"

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:46 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

> Is it politicians (nothing new here), bankers (who, the local clerk, or some unnamed guy in Singapore?) the northern Europeans?

It's that fucking bank clerk with the name "Herman v R." on his name tag!

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:55 | Link to Comment Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

I'm not advocating violence, but people around the world are being run over by criminals in theIr government, and at some point it has to be stopped or we are all going to be enslaved.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment imbtween
imbtween's picture

no doubt they're busily emptying the wine bottles they will turn into molotovs after the hangover has subsided.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment sangell
sangell's picture

As Mark Grant points out, other than possibly Greece, how much real 'austerity' has taken place? Reducing the child tax credit in England or France for middle class families may not be popular but it isn't a make or break event. Cutting off benefits for lager louts in Sink Estates or third world immigrants might be a horse of a different color.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 22:59 | Link to Comment Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Pussy.  It's man's ultimate "downer".

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

So on one hand if the peasants arent rioting in the streets they wonder why not....on the other hand if the peasants ARE rioting in the streets they call it an outrage and label them terrorists and direct police to open fire on the insolent subjects.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:33 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Yep.

Who pays for ZH?

One thing is true: snivelling coward big money always wants to incite braver bodies to fight, compete.

Confuse and conquer.

Ain't that right, bitchez.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:11 | Link to Comment steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

I suspect many Europeans are busy, opening new bank accounts in Norway, UK, Miami, Panama City and even Switzerland ... good ol' Switzerland.

 

It takes time to set up yr bank run ... you have to have a place to run to.

 

As far as it goes, there is not much of any reason to riot ... the cops are opening accounts as well ... those who have money.

 

Cypriots are trying to figure out how to evade the capital controls sure to come. Russians are trying to figure out how to remove their funds ... Greeks are figuring out how to emulate the Cypriots who in turn are reading about the Icelanders. There is a lot of thinking going on right now.

 

Nobody wants a Greater Depression, everyone knows the score, this is the 'Big One' and people have their game face on. If a crisis can be avoided with a small payment most people will make the payment and not complain. It is the analysts who are upset about the consequences of the past few days. Most of the analysts are wrong about which consequences matter the most. They are wrong b/c they ignore the big energy story right under their noses.

 

The public isn't libertarians and they don't take ideological positions, they are flexible. Right now the system does not appear to be ruined, that it is has to be proven by events.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:01 | Link to Comment sadmamapatriot
sadmamapatriot's picture

+ 16 Trillion, sir!

 

P.S. I am quoting this.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 03:44 | Link to Comment Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

"Right now the system does not appear to be ruined, that it is has to be proven by events."

To the point, you have to be able to think abstractly, to connect dots, to figure out what is happening at this moment.  Most of your neighbors cannot do this. 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:19 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

I can explain this to Mr Magnus. Hopefully he reads ZH.

 

I remember communism. We did not protest. All over eastern europe and russia the govs said that.....there is no food. We have to ration food. People did not protest, because food was kind of distributed evenly.

 

PEOPLE PROTEST WHEN SOMETHING VITAL IS VISIBLE BUT WITHHELD FROM THEM. People do not protest if there's nothing to gain by protesting. It is the concept of the forbidden apple. The problem is, there's no apple.

Remember Greeks? They protested to their gov. And the gov said: We have no money. We have no industry. We have no commodities. You can protest, but if there's nothing to gain, there's nothing to gain.


 

That's why europeans are not protesting. They saw the greeks and they saw that if they protested, they'd get nothing. The govs are broke. Europe is broke.

 

That's why AUSTERITY is not imposed by Germans. Austerity is self imposed. They do not want to work. They grew up being told they don't need to work. They won't protest, there's nothing to protest for.

 

Same as in USA now, Europe has been on food stamps for a very long time, quite long. The abundance is shrinking. It's over. It's death by a thousand cuts, because europeans chose to die like this........UNTIL ............LIKE IN COMMUNISM.........FOOD GETS SCARCE.

A hungry person has nothing to lose, north korea being the notable exception.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:11 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

True.

But Magnus is talking to his own rootless cosmopolitans. They wonder how much they can steal before the masses rise up and want to kill them.

That is why they have dual passports, so they can run away from the countries they ruin when their bank balances are at optimum level.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:34 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Are you sure you couldn't have been wrong about anything their Mr.  jones. I can prove you are/were WRONG, yesterday, today, and tomorrow.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:57 | Link to Comment Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

I'll go with that. Except to say that when well fed people go hungry abruptly, they get angry. When they are slowly deprived to the point of hunger, they become docile. Slum dwellers and poor in India and environs out number the elite by orders of magnitude, yet they don't rebel. How many in Zimbabwe didn't crush their oppressors because the small minority in the ruling class continued to make them feel a little bit better off with each paper torrent?

And my guess is, with the majority receiving some sort of subsistence from the States of the western world today, they are reluctant to gnaw off the hand of their benefactor. Instead, they'll just do the hope and change gig. Subjectivity vs objectivity, kinda. Might even be how the political order got like this.

Ping pong balls, batted between red and blue paddles, always slightly favoring the best offer of a free lunch.

Farm subsidy to food stamps, disability to defense contracts, social security to public employee unions, mortgage interest deduction to depreciation allowance. Doesn't seem there are many left whose bread isn't buttered at least a little bit by the State. Or a perceptual bone being thrown to them.

Yup, a thousand cuts. Slow boil.

And as Steve says, it's not in the best interest of recipients of the spoils of redistribution to tank the whole illusion. Au contraire, when sitting at the curb, hand out, they might gladly accept a last tidbit from power. The promise of a cheaper gallon of gas, even?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 08:23 | Link to Comment AurorusBorealus
AurorusBorealus's picture

In general, I agree with you.  History teaches (and my firsthand experience) that there is always a great calm before a mighty storm.  When people realize that the situation is beyond serious, grave, they stop protesting for more pay for their do-nothing government jobs.  They stop shouting in the streets, and they get scared... really scared.  At this point, they sit quiet and hope that someone in power, some expert, someone will solve the problems.

And you are right, this calm lasts until the government handouts (and the food these handouts buy) stop.  Then comes the storm.  And this will be the storm of our lives... perhaps the greatest storm in all of human history.

May God have mercy on all of us.

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:19 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

If Europeans are expending their protest energy, the lapse did not envelope the Italian elections.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:21 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Beppe Grillo is simply gathering people behind him asking for "fairer distribution" of what's left.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:21 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

Deep Breaths.

Close your little eyes Yakie-Doodle, you don't want to see what ol Chopper is going to do.

"A Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) “urgent bulletin” being sent to Embassies around the world today is advising both Russian citizens and companies to begin divesting their assets from Western banking and financial institutions “immediately” as Kremlin fears grow that both the European Union and United States are preparing for the largest theft of private wealth in modern history."

Breath. Is this why the streets are quiet?

Russian Leader Warns, "Get All Money Out Of Western Banks Now!"

http://www.eutimes.net/2013/03/russian-leader-warns-get-all-money-out-of...

Wowie-Kapowie! Breath.

Ze Pyramid doth take a wild turn in the rolly-coaster quickly, eh?

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:55 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Russian oligarchs raped and robbed the former Soviet Union and made Cyprus their money laundering bank. Russian oligarchs are fat ugly whores who pay for sex, and just got lucky when the Bolsheviks killed the Czars, thereby ending all gentlemanly behaviour in the cesspit of the former Soviet Union.

Now. Do you want to dance? Let's dance. Enough of this propaganda, comrade.

You will blink first.

Game on, pet.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:14 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

You mean Russians oligarchs who are investing in Cyprus such as businessman Dmitry Rybolovlev who bought a 10% stake in Bank of Cyprus, which is getting bailed out?

“A grandson of one of Russia's original Bolsheviks, Dmitry Rybolovlev is a Jewish Russian, who attended the Perm Medical Institute, studying medicine, but after graduating in 1990, he entered the fertilizer business. In 1994, named chairman of the board of Uralkali, Russia's largest producer of potassium fertilizers, founded by the Soviets in 1930. Cancelled a planned 2006 listing of the company's shares in London, but 2007 brought vindication. The listing, the first by a Russian chemicals company, raised $1 billion. He owns 66% of the Uralkali.

“Basically he is one of 50 Zionists that stole Russia in 1993.” Article

http://servv89pn0aj.sn.sourcedns.com/~gbpprorg/judicial-inc/811russian_oligarch_palm_beach.htm

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:46 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Sick, isn't it? 

Zionists are the most hateful, wealthy, killers ever known on the face of the earth, yet they are protected by nice words as liked by idiots, eg socialism, communism, fascism, central banks, otc derivatives, the U.N., the Council for Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, the Bilderberg Group.

Blah, blah, blah.

Zionism is bad for jews and everyone else.

The Constitution is flawed, but better.

Most people are poor and stupid. They don't want to see facts: protestants 1620 in MA and jews 1700s in RI made the U.S.A.

Zionism is a very new failed thing. Modern CONgress is even worse. Eejits.

 

PS

I gave you an elegant exit. Be grateful.

Stop trying to confuse Michelle et al. 

My patience is limited.

She is beloved. O'bomba is not.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:37 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

You are on your last nerve, and i'm gonna get on it.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:36 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Time for all to jump into the cess pool of denile.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:04 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

Did you notice the reference to Zero Hedge in this additional excerpt from the article?

Excerpt:

Until a few years ago, Cyprus – which is really the ethnically Greek section of Cyprus, the Turkish section being a de facto protectorate of Turkey – had a fiscal surplus, but its close relationship to Greece resulted in a downturn when Greece fell into a severe recession. The government’s debt in itself is still manageable, but Cypriot banks have become shaky because of their loans to Greece.”

In the face of massive popular outrage, however, Cypriot MPs spectacularly voted earlier this week against the EU plan to steal their bank depositors money, thus leaving the Euro Zone reeling, a situation that was, in fact, created by European banksters who had forced Cyprus banks to lend money to nearly bankrupt Greece in the first place.

Even worse may be what is in store for the Americans, who on 31 January lost an unlimited US government guarantee that was granted on over $1.5 trillion of their bank deposits during the 2008 financial crisis to assure skittish customers that their cash was safe.

According to Kremlin sources, though, President Obama’s sudden visit to Israel this week, the first he has made since being elected in 2008, was to personally warn top Israelis of his regimes “plan” to begin confiscating his citizen’s bank deposits too.

Interesting to note is that the Obama regimes “master plan” to steal their citizen’s wealth that is no longer protected was detailed by the global management consulting giant, and the world’s leading advisor on business strategy, The Boston Consulting Group (BCG) who in their 2011 September report titled Collateral Damage: Back to Mesopotamia? The Threat of Debt Restructuring warned of the US governments plan to confiscate up to 30% of not just the American peoples bank accounts, but also of their other wealth.

The highly respected Zero Hedge financial newsletter in commenting on this dire BCG report grimly stated:

 

“Denial. Denial is safe. Comforting. Religiously and relentlessly abused by politicians who don’t want nor can face reality. A word synonymous with 'muddle through.'

"Ah yes, that 'muddle through' which so many C-grade economists and pundits believe is the long-term status quo for the US and the world just because it worked for Japan for the past three decades, or, said otherwise, 'just because.'

"Well, too bad. As the following absolutely must read report, which comes not from some trader of dubious credibility interviewed by BBC, nor even from an impassioned executive from a doomed Italian bank, but from consultancy powerhouse Boston Consulting Group confirms, the 'muddle through' is dead. And now it is time to face the facts..." and more...

 

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:25 | Link to Comment SIOP
SIOP's picture

Reading this makes me want to pull out my old Pink Floyd "Animals" cd and listen to it.

 

 

"Harmlessly passing your time in the grassland away;
Only dimly aware of a certain unease in the air."

--Roger Waters, "Sheep"

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:11 | Link to Comment AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

I was just listening to a live version of Pink Floyd's "Comfortably Numb" as I was reading your comment. I find Pink Floyd to be an excellent musical compliment as I peruse ZH.

The child is grown
The dream is gone
I have become comfortably numb...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:37 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

1980 "The Wall" Concert at the L.A. Coliseum Ditto's to both of you.

People doing lines and passing joints, drinking beer, inside the arena - most peaceful and fantastic concert ever.

Ten years later stormtroopers in the parking lots on horseback and figths from people getting drunk in their cars; flashlight Nazi's inside the arena putting out anything lit and more fights.  DUH.

*sigh*

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:51 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture


Orwell was ahead of his time.

Malcolm X was ahead of his time.

The time is now.

We the people have been 'had', 'cheated', 'looted', 'bombed' raped and robbed by the two faced lying politicial elite and their gangster banksters.

Even now, it is not enough to satiate the blood lust of the money brokers.

$16 trillion to pay for Iraq, and now Syria and Iran are the next targets.

All wrong.

How many more people must die for the freak zionist CONgress to get paid its money while it hates the Constitution, Bill of Rights and Declaration of Independence...and its idiot wage slave fans do nothing to stop these freaks.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:53 | Link to Comment maskone909
maskone909's picture

Because they are fuckin pussies

Rock flag and eagle bitches

-mack, always sunny philly

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:59 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Russian oligarchs run a world trade in child gang banging. They fuck babies. You are sick, like them.

Putin is NOT  a hateful useless flacid paedophile money whore of the oligarch sort.

And that is why Putin is a patriot for his country.

I don't agree with everything he does, but I do admire his patriotism.

You, pet, are an idiot.

'Useful idiot' or perhaps an 'educated fool'. 

Either way, a jerk.

Thu, 03/21/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Eahudimac
Eahudimac's picture

People will never revolt. I'm disgusted every day at how fucking stupid people are. 95% of the dumbasses out there still think in republican vs democrat. The blame game goes on stronger than ever. The libs are lined up behind Barry and will support him no matter how fucked up he is while the republicans are off shitting in a bucket somewhere. I'm pissed that I have to live in such a fucked up world. Why the fuck do I even get up and go to work for anymore? I've work my ass of 11 - 12 hours/day and weekends and any day now the whole fucking house of shit is going to be flushed away and what will I have to show for it? Not a gad damned thing after these fucktards (bankers & politicians) are through. When the thought of death > life, only then will people revolt. These fuckers know this and they will continue to manipulate the sheeple but throw them a bone, or should I say Obamaphone, to keep them from going off the mental cliff. 

Those of us that are awake and onto this bullshit, we can either sit back, watch it collapse and take it up the ass like the europeans, or get really fucked off and handle this like our forefathers did and send these cocksuckers to hell.

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:53 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Only 3% of new englanders fought in the war of independence, and others assisted or stood aside.

most modern democrap repugnant eurofilth are collaborators with their own slavery because they are lazy state slaves who only complain when they personally might lose something. They don't care if their neighbor suffers.

They are whores, not proper citizens. And the politicians they elect are also money whores.

Politicians talk. Soldiers do. Voters whine. Bankers and their fans fuck anything which is why most gangster bankster fans are fat and ugly.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:40 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Sounds as if you are having a lost liquidy nightmare.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:05 | Link to Comment WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

What we should be asking is why the people let the banks get bailed out and then continue or expand the same behavior that got them into trouble in the first place.  

We should have stopped it in 2008 - if you are a bank, you do banking only.  If you want to be a hedge fund - fine but then you are not a bank and cannot have customer accounts nor can you use customer collateral for margin to gamble.

Instead we do the opposite - we let brokers become banks and banks become brokers - both expanding in scope.  And no one does anything about it.  Now they are deemed too big to fail, to big to jail.  The "next time" is going to be very, very ugly.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:46 | Link to Comment Mike in GA
Mike in GA's picture

Yeah, that's what gets me, too.  Why are the banks allowed to get bigger and bigger and their commercial/investment sides commingled without restraint?

Whatever happened to the Sherman Antitrust Act?

Maybe the proper question should be, "Where are the elected representatives of the people who should be calling for application of the Sherman Antitrust Act?".

These banking behemoths seem to get closer each year to a spectacular blowup.  Like someone said way upthread, the house of cards always falls on us, the people, not the perpetrators of the collapse. 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:06 | Link to Comment lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The new tax bill is coming due in Greece anytime soon. Cyprus will collapse as soon as the banks open. Spain will continue to have protests. Italy's political mess is nowhere near fixed. The anti-EU party in Germany could surprise many people. The streets should be full of protesters soon enough.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 10:49 | Link to Comment swiss chick
swiss chick's picture

I think we need to wait until it gets warmer here...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:30 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

When the base of complexity in which events take place exceeds the limit of time necessary to calculate their outcomes the future becomes unpredictable.

May God help us all.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Chart 3 is a bit of a tautology, which the writer (who borrowed it) does point out, calling it "spuriously correlated".  The Bank Credit Analyst---no doubt surprising to some here---used to be a pretty good read.  Then again, banking used to provide (primarily) a useful economic service, aggregating spare capital and making it available to those with ideas but no wealth.  Somewhere along the road to trying to corner CDX IG9, banking lost its way.

As for social unrest, it's a light switch.  One day, one second, one instant it's just there, and then it feeds off itself.  A certain amount of energy must dissipate before it stops.  Sometimes it is sated merely by giving the emotion an outlet, while other times it can only be sated by major stuctural change.  The '68 riots are an example of the first, while France 1789 or Russia 1917 are examples of the second.  Which will it be this time?  If this time is of the latter variety, can change lead directly to something better, or must the pendulum swing to another kind of negative first, as it did in both France and Russia?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:40 | Link to Comment Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

I like to think that when the eventual revolution finally works itself out, the victor will have no choice but to have at least a brief look at the founding documented principals that once made the USA a beacon of hope for the family of man. As NE stated, it's flawed, but better than most else ever presented as acceptable means of self governance.

And maybe next time, the 10th can simply read "Congress Shall Make no Laws."

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 03:34 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

There is nothing finer than a good educator, but unfortunately, there are too few of those, and too many tenured indoctrinators paid by the State with taxpayer money, and endless war is the result at home and abroad.

Only 3% made the first American revolution against the tyrannical monarchy and tax thieving corporatist Britain - the same force that exists since the Fed was formed in 1913. These Nazis never went away. They hold sway now.

This is no debate for the fine feathered friends of fancy colleges who have done their utmost to legitimise the killing machine of the modern political class and its bureaucrats.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:41 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Face it, the world (at least yours) is coming to an end, and quickly.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 10:33 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Dbl Post.

Pip squeaks like negative will be stomped under the "change" that is coming. These stoopid mental midgets do not realize that their whining and puerile bullshiite is actually protected under p[resent conditions. When the rubber meets the road with "change" the pencil necked petulant negative one...gets squished like the sift grape that the sounds like.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 10:31 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

perhaps negative - but the weak ankle biters like yourself, will be wiped out. So thats one good thing for the change.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:53 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

I'm bored with Europe.

"Shigeru Iwasaki, head of the Japanese Self-Defence Forces’ joint staff, and Samuel Locklear, commander of U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific, are expected to agree that the allies will accelerate the drafting of the plans when they meet in Hawaii on Thursday and Friday, Kyodo news agency said."

"U.S. defense officials noted that the Pentagon routinely updates its military plans for a variety of potential conflicts. The official declined to give details of the plan, or say how it was being changed. But such plans generally include a variety of scenarios, from trying to repel an enemy force from taking an island to retaking islands after a conflict.“It shouldn’t be a surprise we have a plan to defend our ally against aggression in a tense situation,” said a U.S. defense official."

http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2013/03/china-concerned-by-japan-us-diaoyu-...

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 00:55 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Fair point. Europe is a dead man walking, unimportant in the affairs of international finance, politics or ethics.

It is a corpse, and its people made it so. I have no sympathy for their gluttony.

They wasted the riches and beauty created by their ancestors.

Would be sad if other countries did the same.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:06 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

Europe has choices, get played by the IMF (I have no words to describe that organization), ECB (f*cking smug evil bank funded by Bernanke) or ditch the whole thing.  Cyprus, I have no sympathy for at all, nor Greece.  Great life they have, they are peasants.  Nothing wrong with that, problem is they played in the big leads as a tax-haven for Russians whilst running a socialist style system to govern.  Now they are stuffed.  They haven't got the balls to leave the EU, nor Greece.  So...freewill and all that.

Problem is that they are causing the above cartel (IMF, ECB, EU) to start hunting down safe havens.  Which has the Fed now frisky i.e BitCoin etc

But, China and Japan tensions make me nervous.  Both countries are desperate for a distraction.  Doesn't look good

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/21/us-china-japan-usa-idUSBRE92K0...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:31 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Always enjoy your analysis. 

Must admit my obvious bias. You know what I'm going to say: U.S.A.

Life is a team effort and it is a very sick fact that hateful greedy gangster banksters want to own all, and destroy all. It is horrid that gangsta bankstas use every country for their sick cynicism.

Resist, you and we will. 1776 and all that. No surrender. Long live the Republic. Every color, creed and religion that believes and upholds the Constitution, for the people, by the people, of the people.

F'orf O'bomba, you despicable hateful rootless cosmopolitan along with your Bush brothers, Trilateral Commission and Bilderberg Group of internationalist anti-USA freaks.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 02:53 | Link to Comment chump666
chump666's picture

America has a beautiful history of rebellion.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 03:11 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

The Constitution, Declaration of Independence and Bill of Rights.

Thank you, 'chump666' for being so, wherever you live. Upsets me that so few Americans understand legitimate questions; speak truth to power.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:43 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I gettin totally exhausted just listening to you die here.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:08 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"Europe is a dead man walking, unimportant in the affairs of international finance, politics or ethics"

interesting. on what do you base this theory? I had the impression that european affairs are becoming increasingly more important for US finance, politics and ethics

meanwhile you seem to have this old Yankee double-standard: whenever the US does something in the world, it's "them" - and you have nothing to do with it - meanwhile if consequences of those US actions come back to you it's again "them", only this time it's the "them, the damn foreigners"

since you are so jingoistic I'd like to remind you that a lot of those peoples you dismiss so lightly are from allied countries - and their kids bleed too, when wounded in wars led by your country

your mindset is part of the US problem, imho, and borders to the petulant childish entitled

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:16 | Link to Comment Ghordius
Ghordius's picture

"It is a corpse, and its people made it so. I have no sympathy for their gluttony"

this is rich, too. gluttony? do you really want to compare europe and the USA on the theme of gluttony?

it's a consumeristic sin, after all. the glutton is an over-consumer. have a look how much oil and food is consumed around the world and come back to tell

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 04:51 | Link to Comment NuYawkFrankie
NuYawkFrankie's picture

re I have no sympathy for their (Europe's) gluttony...

Spoken by a representative of the fattest f*cks on the planet - bar none. LOL!

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:08 | Link to Comment Ineverslice
Ineverslice's picture

 

Concerning Japanese militarism...I believe they are pumped, chompin' at the bit, just waiting for orders.  Lots of planning going on, including answers to the question, How long will it take to assemble a missile delivery system.

Back to the Samurai...there is no other option.  (you don't need to be a K. Bass to figure it all out, just an open mind willing to accept fear.)

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 02:06 | Link to Comment Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

War. It's what arrogant, egotistical, ignorant psychopaths do. Turn it all to chaos, then rally 'round the flag and point at "them, over there." 

 

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:51 | Link to Comment newengland
newengland's picture

Everyone is bored with Europe, apart from the EUSSR and its silly fans.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 06:44 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

I love boring.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 01:46 | Link to Comment Paracelsus
Paracelsus's picture

There is time to change the system peacefully,but time certainly is running out fast.Ban all,repeat all derivatives,repo systems,swaps and such.Reset the system somehow with a return to the gold/silver peg ($5000 Au,$150 Ag  ?).Get rid of the Ponzi stuff.The student loan thing in America is about to explode,as are muni bonds.Things have to be revalued.Cost of labor,Risk,real estate.The fraud has to stop and the criminals prosecuted and jailed.If the SHTF I don't see where the 1% are going to wander in their mega-yachts. Bodyguards for your family 24/7 and bulletproof Humvees in convoy? When the tide goes out you see who is swimming naked .Actually I think a few fellows predicted this last year.

Anyhow,nothing useful will happen until the CB's stop printing.

It is really weird.The individual European countries need to print,but the Germans are paranoid about hyperinflation.

America is headed towards hyperinflation with Bernanke printing up a storm,and as there is no historical sensitivity to inflation (ask some HS kid about Weimar fiscal policy),there will be no social protests until too late. The most interesting thing will be the circular firing squad in Congress,everyone blaming each-other,a bit like rearranging the deck furniture on the Titanic... 

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