The End Of The Central Bank Put: From Mugabenomics To MadMaxnomics

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Authored by Joel Guglietta, originally posted at Steen Jacobsen's blog at TradingFloor.com,

There exists a super-Bernanke who proved also a super-Hollande, a gentleman who Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cannot compete with: his name is Robert Mugabe, the president of Zimbabwe. When he took power, he seized the farmlands of one social group to give them to another social group. Afterwards, in part because the new social group did not manage the farms that well, the economy took a turn for the worse. Therefore, the state issued some bonds to finance its spending and asked the central bank to issue some money to buy this government debt. But they printed big time and turned the printing press into something of a cosmic proportion. According to Professor Steve Hanke from John Hopkins, monthly inflation was 80 billion percent, so per year it is a 65 followed by 107 zeros. This is what I call Mugabenomics, the conjunction of (i) state-forced wealth transfer between two social groups along with (ii) the monetisation of the debt. As we shall see below, Mugabenomics, or at least its mild version implemented now in the Western hemisphere, has drastic consequences on the final episode of the global financial crisis.

Let’s start with the obvious: the Western world is completely bankrupt

The average total debt of the 18 OECD countries is now well above the 330 percent of GDP computed by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in 2011 (Figure 1). Government debt ranges from 80 percent to 100 percent of GDP, non-financial corporate debt is higher than 90 percent of GDP and private household debt is higher than 85 percent of GDP. What is less known is that real household debt tripled between 1995 and 2010 (Figure 1; right-hand graphic). “We” (more on this “we” below) are collectively completely broke. What to expect then? History gives an answer.

Figure 1: Non-Financial Debt

Non-financial debt chart

Source: BIS Paper, “The Real Effect of Debt”, Stephen G Cechetti, MS Mohanty and Fabrizio Zampolli

 

During the Middle Ages, lenders used to apply an interest rate to the loans they granted to their kings to make up for the risk they incurred. Back then, what we now call risk premium was death. Indeed, when the kings could not pay back their debt, they sometimes simply slaughtered their creditors. In today’s civilised world, we kill the creditors with two weapons of choice: inflation and “debt restructuration”. For instance, a haircut (debt cancellation is a 100 percent haircut and happened many times during the Bronze Age in Mesopotamia). In the face of the magnitude of the above numbers, the fact that GPP can grow at 2 percent to 3 percent in the US and zero percent to 1 percent in Euroland is totally irrelevant. Monetisation of the debt, ongoing erosion of the value of currencies and a looming 10 percent to 30 percent haircut are inevitable. This is bad news for undercapitalised European banks.

Therefore, even half-smart creditors know for sure that they are going to be obliterated one way or the other. So let’s spend some time on the haircut solution. A very good old paper from the Boston Consulting Group (“Back to Mesopotamia”, Sept. 2011) suggested that politicians would tax wealth to finance controlled debt restructuring and implement an additional tax on real estate. The BCG scenario has not happened yet, but tax has been increasing everywhere for sure. Please do not raise the Cyprus “guinea pig”: the island is the black hole of the black economy where illicit activity makes almost 30 percent of total GDP! Do not say the ECB and IMF opened Pandora's box. They just asked Cypriots to pay what should have been paid in the first instance. It is an insult to common decency to ask European taxpayers to pay the bill for the national sport in Cyprus: the non-payment of VAT, social contributions and income tax, and recycling of criminal money that has lifted the real estate, hospitality and tourism industries.

Still, taxes are rising everywhere. For example, France has a wealth tax called ISF.  Moreover, in this country, known as the big sick man of Europe after the fiscal law amendments implemented by former president Nicolas Sarkozy, total taxes due for property capital gain are 54 percent (33.33 percent + 15.5 percent CSG/CRDS + 6 percent others). On top of that, French pay a tax called the ISF on the total value of their property.

However, why has the BCG’s prediction of a much more aggressive wealth tax not materialised yet? Actually, something way smarter than a simple tax on wealth seems to be at work. Before explaining what could it be, let’s go back to the second key point of our story: who is “we” and how did we get there?

When I say that “we” are all broke collectively, this is not exactly true. We need a little bit of granularity. Let’s take the case of the US. The left-hand graphic in figure 2 shows three developments of paramount importance.

  • The share of wages in the GDP has been constantly falling since the 1950s;
  • The share of profit in the GDP has been steadily rising since the 1980s;
  • There is clear evidence of shorter-term profit-wage cycles: when the wage share rises (falls), the profit share falls (rises), shedding light on an ongoing fight between two social groups to capture the highest share of the value added.

What this chart does not show, but what is evident regarding what has been discussed above, is that this steady fall in wages as a share of GDP has been accompanied by a steady rise in private debt.

Figure 2: The Galapagos and the others

 The Galapagos and others chart

Source: FED Saint Louis

 

How the ecosystem has auto-organised is mind blowing. Wage earners have structurally received a lower share of the value-added and at the same time, because the ecosystem needs to grow constantly to survive. They have sold their future work to the banks to fulfill their social utility: consuming. And all this has happened without any other violence save a salary contract and the compulsory need to fulfill the much-advertised dream of consuming what the other Joneses consume (whatever it is: a house or a USD 200 pair of shoes).

In the same time, the inequality in earnings is back to what it was at the beginning of the 20th century: the top 1 percent gets 25 percent of all incomes. For those living in emerging markets like Russia, China, Mexico, Indonesia, or Brazil, such a polar social structure is the norm. So, I have news for you: the emerging and Western economies have finally converged, but not precisely how we thought they would. On the one hand, we find the top 1 percent living in the Galapagos, a very unique and exclusive ecosystem protected from the harsh conditions of the world. In this ecosystem, they are all kings - they are the Kings of the Galapagos. On the other hand, you have the 99 percent for whom weather conditions are not that stable. They live in the Land of the Others.

Some of the Kings of the Galapagos are creditors (what a difference compared with the Middle Age!) and some are not. But all share a common feature: they have equity shares. That is to say, a property right on the means of production. As we shall soon see, this property right is what really matters; way much more than its price that depends upon the social conventions on what value is and that change time to time.

So where do we go from here? Stifle your yawn, the story ends soon

I have previously described Mugabenomics as a “stylised fact” of what’s going on in the G10. For sure, this is not exactly applicable as G10 countries have institutions that protect both the Kings of the Galapagos and those living in the Land of the Others. More precisely, what they protect are the property rights. And now, all the pieces are in place.

As Donald Trump said, what the FED (ECB, BoJ…) is doing “is good for people like us”. Let’s assume that “us” are the Kings of the Galapagos. It is not that good for those living in the Land of the Others because the “monetary helicopter” never existed. It is the most stupid thing never invented in economics (among many others, agreed): there is no helicopter, there is a queue, and some are at the beginning of the queue and others at the end.

So, back to our Kings of the Galapagos. They perfectly know that if they hold some debt, they will lose a lot, as the BCG hinted. They also know that maybe they will have to endure some wealth tax as French citizens happily pay every year with no other social disorder than the recurrent demonstrations that define our art de vivre. But here, the beauty of the extreme monetisation we are going through now is twofold.

On the one hand, assuming that inflation does not shoot up in Zimbabwean cosmic proportions, current inflation in asset prices – lifted thanks to central bank monetisation - will pay for the risk of a wealthm tax tomorrow. Moreover, should we go back to Mesopotamian times with a write-off of debt and a big celebration, banks would have rebuilt some of their balance sheets in the meantime, too.

On the other hand, if indeed inflation explodes and if the value of money vanished with the complete obliteration of the creditors, the Kings of the Galapagos will end up with the one and only thing that has a real value: an equity share, such as a  property right on the means of production. Let me quote what Harold Demsetz writes in Toward a Theory of Property Rights: “[…] an owner of property rights possesses the consent of fellowmen to allow him to act in particular ways. […] Property rights convey the right to benefit or harm oneself or others. [They] specify how persons may be benefited and harmed and, therefore, who must pay whom to modify actions taken by persons." This goes without saying that this holds true in the first scenario too: property power is social power, and social power is all what matters.

This is why the Kings of the Galapagos are long equity under (mild) Mugabenomics. This goes way beyond the so-called put of the central banks, which are there to support asset prices. Yesterday, the multibillion hedge fund Brevan Howard said on Reuters:  "Having faith in policymakers' ability to provide a perpetual put may yet prove to be a serious error.

"Tail riskswhich have haunted the markets for the last five years, appear to have receded for the time being, but have by no means disappeared."

Yes indeed, I agree with Brevan Howard: the risks have not disappeared. But if so, why assume an end of the central banks’ put?

Well, the central banks could turn their backs on Keynes, become Austrian and raise interest rates in a world of sub-par growth and massive debt. Really? Would they? Having a constant faith in the put of the central banks proved a mistake when the system was within boundaries.  But as figure 3 suggests, boundaries have been broken and policymakers are in uncharted territories, or rather territories rarely revisited since Mesopotamian times. 

Figure 3: How a complex system evolves during a crisis

 complexity during a crisis

Source: Journal of Futures Studies, Feb. 2007, 11(3),:29-46. BestFutures©, Duncan & Graeme Taylor

 

Indeed, with 46 million US citizens on food stamps and the unemployment rate in some European countries equal to what was seen during the Great Depression, boundaries have clearly been broken. This is not a put, this is a blatant admission that we are at the end of the road,. For example, a major bifurcation. Calling an end to the put of the central banks is moving from (mild) Mugabenomics to MadMaxnomics. This is what figure 3 shows: we are smack in the middle of this bifurcation, If (mild) Mugabenomics goes along with structural reforms, we can hope to move to a world of greater complexity and evolve. If not, there is still the fragmented scenario, which, unfortunately, has not a zero-probability.

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Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:07 | 3364598 maxmad
maxmad's picture

Hey I made the Headlines!!

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:15 | 3364623 Western
Western's picture

Sorry only Forbes, NYT, Atlantic, and The Economist count.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:31 | 3364662 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

Link to BCG's "Back to Mesopotamia".
http://www.bcg.com/documents/file87307.pdf

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:45 | 3364694 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Figure 3: How a complex system evolves during a crisis

~~~

It looks like a goddamned SPERM!...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:51 | 3364716 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

would be nice if we could actaully read the text on the image

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:58 | 3364730 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

It's written in some kind of ancient Aramaic pig latin... It says "umanityHEY ihZAY verpricedOYEH ~ ibonnachiFEY raceTRAY innentIMEY"...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:59 | 3364737 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Figure 3. It's still small but you can blow it up.

http://www.tradingfloor.com/images/blog/medium/6fb2342a-d60b-470a-9205-4...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 22:05 | 3364754 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Oh thanks ~ I can see it better now... It says "kito ~ THERE'S A SALE AT PENNYS!"

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 22:46 | 3364836 knukles
knukles's picture

Thank God for sane people. 
I thought it said "There's a sale at Penis."

Silly me...

 

help

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 23:35 | 3364914 flacon
flacon's picture

Did you hear about Bernankie's mission to the sun?

How you ask?

He plans to go at night.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 22:08 | 3364757 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

See page 13 of this link from the original in the Journal of Future Studies. Clear as day.

http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/11-3/A02.pdf

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 15:21 | 3366328 He_Who Carried ...
He_Who Carried The Sun's picture

"The Western World" is not bancrupt.

Governments and a few states are, but not the populace...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 22:15 | 3364769 Better_late_tha...
Better_late_than_never's picture

It looks like a sperm, because we all got fucked.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:13 | 3364617 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

Can I eat the crops from my old farmville account yet?  Or at least trade them for some sweet bitcoins?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:15 | 3364621 knukles
knukles's picture

Goddamn it Tyler!
I was hoping for no bedtime Ativan and Thorazine enema tonight...

 

 

drool

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:15 | 3364622 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

Fucking moolies. You can take them out of the fucking jungle but you can't take the jungle out of them.

 

Fucking Jews. You can take them out of Egypt and the fucking wilderness, but you can't take the fucking money grubbing out of them.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:18 | 3364631 knukles
knukles's picture

So I take it you're not a follower of Rousseau's construct of the Nobel Savage?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:52 | 3364720 Fedaykinx
Fedaykinx's picture

i see what you did there.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 23:00 | 3364838 knukles
knukles's picture

Some sneaky shit, huh?
Yeah, yeah it's cultural.

 

Look, I didn't name the fucking theory, some sensitive Frenchie didn't do that himself.
Cunts

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:18 | 3364632 kito
kito's picture

@hedgetard---youre an embarrassment to humanity...............

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:22 | 3364644 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

kito,

 

     Thank you, brother.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 22:11 | 3364761 pods
pods's picture

If you really think about "humanity" it really is quite a compliment.

pods

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 11:16 | 3365468 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Spock tells me that he finds the Up/Down arrows to Kito quite telling: strong response, split community.

So, long 'lively debate'? Kirk out.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 12:01 | 3365574 akarc
akarc's picture

And therein lies the real reason I own guns.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:21 | 3364639 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

My Viking ancestors were right. Kill them all and let Odin sort them out.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 11:20 | 3365478 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

And what happened to these ancestors/Vikings? How enduring was their world view and business model? Oh, I forgot... they were the ultimate socialists, but with weapons.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 12:28 | 3365654 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Viking is a verb not a noun. You "go viking"; you are not a viking. A bunch of priests going against God hoard gold in their abbeys oppressing the people around them. Yeah, those men that went viking weren't the nicest but it is a clear lesson that hoarding wealth, especially stolen wealth, without the means to defend it leads to bad things. How did the men that went viking turn out? Well, the Danes that migrated to eastern Britain and settled down to farms contributed to the local culture and had a part in two of the biggest empries since, the British and the American. Not bad.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 01:43 | 3365004 mean divergent
mean divergent's picture

yep

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 01:40 | 3365006 mean divergent
mean divergent's picture

Fucking white guys.  You can take the togas off them, but you can't get them to quit fucking everybody in the ass.  (-1 for me from all you white ass-fuckers out there)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 12:04 | 3365581 akarc
akarc's picture

Proof that the enemy is not evidenced on skin color but on ignorance

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 14:32 | 3365566 akarc
akarc's picture

So Hedgetard. Just where did you get your ligthting bolt tattoos? And please don't tell me you work in a bakery! 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:16 | 3364628 kito
kito's picture

 we can hope to move to a world of greater complexity and evolve........

 

speak for yourself son.........greater complexity is EXACTLY why the world is in this mess.....................ONLY when this complexity (ie--derivatives that nobody understands, health care and tax laws that nobody understands......etc, etc) ENDs, will we all move forward and evolve...................................


Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:20 | 3364641 knukles
knukles's picture

A repost but none the less; do you realize that the Second Law of Thermodynamics suggests that evolution as professed by modern scientists (sic) suggesting greater order and advancement is in error?
The Second Law suggests that the universe tends toward decreasing order as opposed to the statist, socialist dream.... so there really should be no surprise as to the trends becomingly increasingly irrelevant with respect to man's survival. 

 

Just thought I might cheer up everybody's day a bit.

Disintermediation Bitchez!

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:24 | 3364648 Hedgetard55
Hedgetard55's picture

+55 million.

 

Only the arrogant scientist can possibly believe in Darwinism, which defies all common sense, logic, and science.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:36 | 3364677 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Not to dumb down Darwin too much, but evolution (survival of the fittest) is no longer applicable to a species once it starts employing technology to prolong life and increases the reproduction of "inferior" specimens, i.e. the explicit revocation of survival of the "fittest".

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:47 | 3364703 knukles
knukles's picture

Ex-fucking-zactlie!

Like spectacles!
Everybody who's blind as a bat without glasses would have been eaten by the bankers or whomever, run over by the proverbial bus, starved as unable to either work or scavenge in garbage bins, humongoliod gatherings such as conventions or political entities would not be able to exist as everybody'd get lost on their way to or from, and the guy with only one eye would be King.

Seriously. 
The advent, the introduction of technology defeats the entire premise of the original "theory".

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:55 | 3364721 prains
prains's picture

"Think of all the peaches and mangos you could sell for me" _ Frank Ocean

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 08:29 | 3365196 new game
new game's picture

the laws never changed, just the time horizon

s.t. yea(fooled again)ha, but longer, ha, you gonna tell jamama is the supperior outcome-lmfao.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 08:33 | 3365202 prains
prains's picture

it's "supper"ior rhetorironical my friend

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 07:24 | 3365153 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

Watch "Ideocracy" to see where it goes.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 08:47 | 3365213 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

People misspell that movie more than they butchered old Gadaffy's name, rest his soul

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 12:17 | 3365617 akarc
akarc's picture

"It is not the strongest of species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change" Charlse Darwin.

Somebody made alot of money making glasses.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:53 | 3364705 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I always thought the next 'quantum leap', you know, evolutionary 'monolith' [2001: A Space Odyssey] moment would occur when we stopped buying khakis from Jos A Bank...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 21:54 | 3364726 kito
kito's picture

what about those cashmere v necks from BANANA REPUBLIC?????

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 22:02 | 3364747 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

'High Fashion Douchebag' is out of my budget... I'm scaling back to military duds...

~~~

But chicks in New York are paying top dollar for this garbage...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 22:31 | 3364797 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

$35 bucks to look like the fucking black Marlin Perkins?

~~~

I'd rather join the Army & get to shoot all the ammo I want at live targets for free...

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 01:09 | 3364983 GoinFawr
GoinFawr's picture

"Dressed up like a million dollar trooper; trying hard to look like Gary Cooper...SuperDuper!"

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 05:15 | 3365110 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The point A Clarke was trying to make was that Humanity has to leave the cradle (Earth).

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 07:29 | 3365155 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Leave Earth? go forth into the universe taking our corruption and fucking over who ever we meet out there......better we stay here and wipe ourselves out.....

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