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Guest Post: Fed's Economic Projections - Myth Vs Reality

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of StreetTalkLive blog,

 

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Fri, 03/22/2013 - 12:57 | 3362666 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Well done; the Keynesian fantasy is just that.

The ECB and IMF proposing the confiscation of savings, and the FED Chairman endorsing it, is for me the biggest tell that they have utterly failed at their stated goals, and have to resort to theft as a measure of desperation (or their intended goal all along).

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 14:58 | 3363202 Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Planned desperation

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 15:22 | 3363316 daveO
daveO's picture

Outright theft, since 'inflation theft' isn't working.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:04 | 3362696 miker
miker's picture

I don't see the US economy improving for years/decades.  No impetus for such and plenty of deflationary pressure.  Same across developed world. 

Central Banks will keep printing until something goes haywire.  Don't know what that will be but when it occurs, the bubbles will burst.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:08 | 3362714 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yes.  Stealing the savings of the middle class is deflationary as hell, as is inviting more fools into the real estate bubble, where they will swiftly go tits up.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:24 | 3362777 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

The US economy isn't going to "improve" ever.  The new "growth" will be the implementation of a contraction economy, or at best, zero-growth economy and the use of innovation try and maintain some kind of standard of living as globalization fractures back into localized economies.  At that point, the "US" will have become something quite different.

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 15:25 | 3363333 daveO
daveO's picture

The FED's zero rate is helping the gov., and a few conneted Corp's. like GE, take over the whole darn country. End the FED.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 14:18 | 3363042 CheapBastard
CheapBastard's picture
Chicago closing 54 schools; union leader blasts ‘outrageous’ plan

 

Chicago officials finally announced what was widely rumored: They will close 54 under-enrolled schools this year in the country’s third largest district to help close a $1 billion budget deficit. It is the largest mass district closing of schools ever in the United States, and it is fiercely opposed by many teachers, parents and education activists.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/answer-sheet/wp/2013/03/21/chicago-c...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 15:01 | 3363209 Frozen IcQb
Frozen IcQb's picture

The students are all qualified to work at the CME.

I don't see a problem here.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 15:29 | 3363366 eaglerock
eaglerock's picture

In not too many years, the sole purpose of local governments will be to funnel money from taxpayers to municipal retirees.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:06 | 3362704 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Yada, yada.

The question of the day is:  Why hasn't Ben bailed Cyprus?

Answer:  Because a disorderly collapse of the Euro suits his purposes, i.e. it's the only thing that might make him look like less of a traitor and fool.

Or maybe not;)

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:09 | 3362720 dick cheneys ghost
dick cheneys ghost's picture

I agree, as Silver and Gold are threats to the DOLLAR, so is the EURO........

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:21 | 3362759 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Not only that, but... the Ponzi of all Ponzis (the Fed) needs the Euro to be the 'sacrificial lamb' (Passover is near) for its sins and the toxic MBS/CDS sludge GS was offloading to the EU. And thus save itself.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 15:27 | 3363352 daveO
daveO's picture

Scared Euro investors will help him buy all those Obama Bonds.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:11 | 3362725 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Financial analyst gold price forecast failure 2007-2012:

http://www.pmbug.com/forum/f2/%5Bchart%5D-financial-analyst-gold-price-f...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 15:27 | 3363355 optimator
optimator's picture

Years ago, when gold was 300 an oz, I would listen to the expert radio guy, Blinker, who absolutley said don't touch gold.  I was in and out of gold from then to 1150 when I got out thinking it just couldn't go on any higher.  That said, there is no other option to keeping your buying power wealth.  Bernak's answer to the possible raiding of bank accounts was telling the sheeple it's not safe there, put it in the market and make money on it.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:13 | 3362728 Quinvarius
Quinvarius's picture

Now that the ECB has gone from printing to looting, this whole torrid mess of misplaced trust is going to spill out of the closet and into the streets.  The words have been spoken.  You cannot uncross the Rubicon. People know their money is one person's decision from becoming someone elses money.  There is no law.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:25 | 3362782 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

Agreed but....... did you just say RuBitCoin?

Sorry, somebody had to say BitCoin to wake up this sleepy thread.

BitCoin BitCoin BitCoin!

Now watch what happens.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:23 | 3362776 maskone909
maskone909's picture

Question:

 

assuming that the fed brings unemployment down to their targetet goal of 6.5% (U3 rates not projected untill 2017?), keping in mind the continual asset purchases @ 85billion PER MONTH.  where does that place the following.......

REAL unemployment: in terms of U7 rates??

REAL inflation??

ACTUAL sovereign debt?

M1/M2?

 


Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:26 | 3362785 q99x2
q99x2's picture

Time for a little Gold inflation. I just typed in ebay 1/4 oz canadian maple leaf.


GOLD CANADA MAPLE LEAF 1/4 OZ .999 PURE GOLD BULLION R...
    Buy it nowor Best offer $949.99

Free shipping

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:30 | 3362804 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Greatest fool theory?

Not surprising.  Look at the "gold clad" junk they sell on home shopping network.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:32 | 3362817 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

So... You're selling at 4*$950 per ounce? Ah, but at $3800/oz, the shipping is free. Good luck with that biz model.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 14:55 | 3363193 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

And still a better investment than ten year T bonds.  What a sick world we live in. 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:27 | 3362791 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I can see how some are down-arrowing the trash & potty talk, but I don't see why the valid criticisms/critiques are also targeted. Strange.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:32 | 3362802 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Post a line on the unemployment/smployment chart with the Fed Funds Rate and you will see just how little powder the Fed has left in their bag.

The last time we approached a recession the FFR was in the 5.24% range.  Today we are at 0-0.25%.

The number of jobs created the first two months of 2007?  324k.

The first two months of 2013? 355k.

 

THe rate of year over year profit growth is about the same today as it was in 2007---in the single digits.

The Fed has had their foot all the way down on the accelerator and we simply not improving.

Something's gonna give...and soon.

 

 

 

 

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:37 | 3362836 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

MDB is on down voting everyone ha.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 13:48 | 3362902 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

One would think that they would slap down oil prices while they are slamming gold and silver prices.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 14:41 | 3363139 natronic
natronic's picture

The Fed's predict everything badly???   WHAT??  Obamacare is going to cost 5X or more than expected WHAT??   They are jester's in our court and it's time to kick em out.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 16:05 | 3363556 MisterA
MisterA's picture

Fuck you, Bernanke!

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 16:16 | 3363588 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

A study was done about economic ``superstars/experts`` and their predictions. Guess what. The bigger the ``expert`` was, the more wrong he was compared to the average no-fame economist.

That explains Krugman and Bernanke being totally wrong all the time. They are too full of themselves.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 18:56 | 3364215 honestann
honestann's picture

I know the following is a bit of an oversimplification, but nonetheless, it is true.  For practical purposes, the actions taken by the federal reserve help huge banks and corporations substantially, help large banks and corporations significantly, have little effect on medium size corporations, and royally SCREW small corporations and individuals.

Since the health of an economy is mostly due to a continuous churn of startups, small companies, and individuals planning and implementing small startups or businesses with their own savings, the Greenspasm, Bernanke, NWO, central-bankster perverto-Keynsian approach destroys the only source of long term economic health.

The kind of analysis in this article is useful enough, but the fundamental point is always that tyranny of the powerful and huge/large is unhealthy, and individualism is healthy.  End of story.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 20:12 | 3364454 mumbo_jumbo
mumbo_jumbo's picture

LOL...Greenspasm was always one of my favorite ways to spell his name too!!! great minds think alike!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 04:42 | 3365098 Failure to Comm...
Failure to Communicate's picture

Well now, if your in prison or, on disability; your not unemployed. Am I right ?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!