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The Harder They Come, The Harder They'll Fall...

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Markets are remarkably schizophrenic about where risk is flowing... and where it isn’t.  For example, ConvergEx's Nick Colas notes, the CBOE VIX Index is up from 12.3 a month ago to a close of 14.0 yesterday. And other risk assets such as Emerging Markets, U.S. Small Caps, Energy names, and developed economy international stocks all show higher 'VIXs' over the same 30 day period.  But... and it’s a big 'But'... just as many sectors/asset classes in our tracking universe show declines in their 'VIXs'.  The most pronounced are domestic Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, and Tech names as well as precious metals and High Yield Corporate bonds, where Implied Vols are 6-17% lower this month and in most cases are at/near 52 week lows.  If you are looking for spots where volatility might make a comeback, these are good places to start.

This market reminds us of an old joke:

Question: What do you call a person who is both ignorant and apathetic?

Answer: I don’t know and I don’t care.

 

 

 

Via Nick Colas, ConvergEx:

That little joke could easily describe the state of both cash equities and listed options at the moment.  Just look at the last few trading days.  You have a Eurozone country – tiny Cyprus, rich with supposedly illicit Russian cash, evidently – threaten to tax depositors as part of a financial system bailout package.  Only the most plugged in market observers even had a whiff this was coming just a week ago.  It is a monumentally bad idea, if only because the safety of deposits is a cornerstone concept in modern banking.  It reminds me of an old Woody Allen line from Love and Death: “If it turns out that there is a God, I don’t think that he’s evil.  I think the worst you can say about him is that basically he’s an underachiever.”

And yet despite this unexpected and unsound policy step, global markets have not taken the bait into a fresh round of panicky selling, as they have so many times over the past four years. The CBOE VIX Index can’t seem to hold 15, quite a distance from its long run average of 20.  Stocks sold off early in the trading day, only to catch a bid at levels above yesterday’s lows.  The Dow actually closed up on the day.  Yes, it might be that investors will regret not taking the easy out in coming days.  The old trading floor aphorism, “Instead of yelling, you should be selling” may yet prove correct.

But peel back the volatility “Onion” a few layers, and you’ll find that markets aren’t quite as sleepy as the last few days might indicate.  Every month we borrow a page from the options pricing world and look at the changes in Implied Volatility for a host of asset classes and industry sectors.  Those measurements are essentially the “VIX of” everything from gold and silver to tech stocks and emerging market equities.  By looking at the listed options pricing for a range of Exchange Traded Funds which track these investments, we can watch the ebbs and flows of risk perceptions across disparate asset types and sectors.  There are a few graphs immediately after this note, but here is a summary of our findings:

  • Several asset types have followed the CBOE VIX Index higher over the past month.  Emerging Markets “VIX” is up 17% over the same period.  The Implied Volatility of domestic Small Cap Stocks is up 7%.  The “VIX” for developed economy foreign stocks, as measured by the Europe/Asia/Far East (EAFE) index, is likewise 6% higher over the past 30 days. Among industry sectors, the “VIX” for Energy names is up the most (+7%), followed by U.S. Material stocks (+5%) and Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Health Care equity “VIX” (+1-3%).
  • Just as many of the asset types/sectors where we follow monthly changes in Implied Volatility have shown a decline in their “VIX” as those where that measure has increased.  The score is 9 down, 9 up, and one essentially unchanged.  That is an odd setup, given that 16 of these investment types saw positive returns over the last month.  In general, Implied Volatility and returns are supposed to be inversely correlated.  This month, not so much…
  • The “Biggest Losers” in terms of Implied Volatility this month were U.S. High Yield Corporate bonds (down 17%), gold/silver (down 11-12%), and then U.S. Consumer Discretionary, Utilities, and Tech stocks (down 6-9%).  The only two that broke significantly from the usual Implied Vol/return relationship were the precious metals, with gold essentially unchanged on the month and silver down 3%.

The rhyme and reason behind these moves is hard to tease out, so let’s conclude by focusing on the true anomalies – the new lows for the “VIX of” our sample universe.  Three assets pop out based on that parameter:

  • High Yield Bonds.  The “VIX of” this asset class is stumbling along at/near new lows despite worries about “Junk” bonds as a dangerous parking lot for yield-hungry cash.  Historical volatility is clearly the anchor here, with this asset class virtually somnambulant over the past 10/20/30 days.  Look deeper into the history of this asset class, however, and you’ll see that it more often trades like equity than it does a reliable payer of coupons.  The sleepy Implied Vols here are a clear – and dangerous – anomaly.
  • Gold and Silver: The biggest “Tell” (at least to my eye) that no one is truly worried about Cyprus is the fact that gold and silver haven’t ripped higher.  Now maybe we’ve entered a new phase in social history where gold is no longer valued during periods of social duress and questions over fiat currency.  I doubt it, however, since it would be the first such event since the advent of writing.  About 5,000 years ago.  The “VIX of” gold hovers at one year lows, and the historical volatility is pretty dead as well.  As of Monday, 10 day volatility was 7% and down from the 30 day volatility of 13%.  Silver’s story is much the same.

I think the only logical conclusion to the data here, full of oddball inconsistencies, is that we are simply treading water in both stock and equity markets.  My bias is to believe that the strength of the tape over the last few days indicates we are going to have a pretty positive close to month.  The lack of real interest on the part of the options market to bid up the cost of insurance (Implied Volatility) may not fit neatly into a bullish argument, but this is (for the moment) the hand we’ve been dealt.  Shaking the market of its complacency – that sub-15 VIX, for example – isn’t going to be easy.  And over the near term, the path to the upside is both easier and increasingly contrarian.  And how often do you get that combination?

Enjoy it while you can.

 

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Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:33 | 3363913 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

EBT macht frei.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:39 | 3363953 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Soup kitchens were much more um, up close and personal.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:48 | 3363994 whatsinaname
whatsinaname's picture

How is the S hee P le index doing today ?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 18:01 | 3364047 slaughterer
slaughterer's picture

I AM GOING 400% SHORT ON THE LAST DAY OF THIS MONTH (MARCH) AFTER EOQ WINDOW DRESSING.

I ADVICE ALL ZHers TO DO THE SAME.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 23:33 | 3364911 MythicalFish
MythicalFish's picture

"And over the near term, the path to the upside is both easier and increasingly contrarian.  And how often do you get that combination?"

 

Not sure he meant four days? So you don't concur.

 

Well. Goodbye, maundy thursday, who could hang a name on you?

 

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:34 | 3363914 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Question: What do you call a person who is both ignorant and apathetic?

Answer: Paul Krugman [alternately: MDB, derek vineyard]

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:44 | 3363975 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

They're paid for their "troubles" ......its all part of the game.......

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:44 | 3363976 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

ok derek ~ we've 'triangulated' your JUNK timestamps to between 17:34 & 17:39... So you're still under suspicion of the murder of Col. Mustard with the candle stick in the library at 17:37...

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:35 | 3363918 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

The harder they come... the more pregnant you get...

In other news...Lebanon has no government... and tensions are rising fast.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732341910457837665311084147...

Lebanon's Prime Minister Najib Mikati resigned on Friday effectively dissolving the government and thrusting the country into political uncertainty at a time when the conflict in Syria is sparking sectarian tensions here.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:33 | 3363922 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Love this one...

 

  “If you’re going to try, go all the way. Otherwise, don’t even start. This could mean losing girlfriends, wives, relatives and maybe even your mind. It could mean not eating for three or four days. It could mean freezing on a park bench. It could mean jail. It could mean derision. It could mean mockery–isolation. Isolation is the gift. All the others are a test of your endurance, of how much you really want to do it. And, you’ll do it, despite rejection and the worst odds. And it will be better than anything else you can imagine. If you’re going to try, go all the way. There is no other feeling like that. You will be alone with the gods, and the nights will flame with fire. You will ride life straight to perfect laughter. It’s the only good fight there is.”

 

— Charles Bukowski (Factotum)

 

 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:35 | 3363935 LetThemEatRand
LetThemEatRand's picture

"I'd rather be a free man in my grave, than living as a puppet or a slave".  -- Jimmy Cliff  

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:56 | 3364030 Silenus
Silenus's picture

And as sure as the sun will shine, I'm gonna get my share, what's mine.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:58 | 3364033 climber
climber's picture

"Your Head & Shoulders is in the glovebox."-- Princess Diana's Driver

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:36 | 3363943 HD
HD's picture

I wish the Fed would just put out a statement:

  We are above the law. We are pumping billions into the market every week, banging every close and selling vix and metals until the wheels come off.

         That is all.

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:39 | 3363954 Itch
Itch's picture

Those who cant do, teach... and those who cant teach, teach QE. 

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 17:45 | 3363982 EmmittFitzhume
EmmittFitzhume's picture

The information age has forced the insiders to re-evaluate their methods.  They can no longer stay one step ahead.  Gold cannot rip higher because there are too many "regular guy" buyers.  They have to force PM values down to depress the morale of the "regular guy." Then when all the regular guys give up, they come in an buy as they always intended to do.  

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 18:01 | 3364050 climber
climber's picture

"Actively make an effort to spread the cause of liberty. Don't come onto a blog and give cool quotes about liberty." -- Ben Franklin

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 18:15 | 3364090 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

What? You mean like about heads, shoulders, & gloveboxes?

Fri, 03/22/2013 - 19:04 | 3364235 MSimon
MSimon's picture

Climber,

Following your suggestion:

<a href="http://classicalvalues.com/2013/03/endocannabinoids-a-video/">Endocannabinoids A Video</a>
 
There are more endocannabinoid receptors in the body than any other receptor type.

The endocannabinoid system is a major regulator in the body implicated in almost all diseases including cancer.

Medical Marijuana prohibition is a crime against humanity and a violation of the religious precept - heal the sick.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:58 | 3366829 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

I know that QE to infinity is "legal" according to Bernank, but when does it become immoral ?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 01:43 | 3367705 mkhs
mkhs's picture

When was it not immoral?

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!