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Cyprus Debate Cancelled, "Not Within Touching Distance" Of A Deal

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The situation in Europe remains fluid. 'Rumors' circulate from 'anonymous' sources but seemingly confirming what 'news' we do have from Olli Rehn that there is no deal; Xinhua reports that the Cypriot Parliament has cancelled the debate over the deposit levy for today (following daylong negotiations with the Troika). Further to the 'no deal' meme, ekathimerini is reporting, via another senior Cypriot official,

  • *CYPRUS, TROIKA NOT CLOSE TO DEAL, CYPRUS NEWS AGENCY REPORTS

“We are not in touching distance of an agreement,” the official, who preferred to remain anonymous, commented adding that the impasse was a result of the “inflexible” stance of the IMF - "Every half hour, new demands are made." Further comments indicate the 'low levy' on the rest of Cyprus-based bank deposits has been abandoned - implying a potential 25% haircut for Bank of Cyprus deposits. 

  • *CYPRIOT GOVERNMENT, TROIKA END MEETING IN NICOSIA :CYBC

The IMF insists that the bank be split in a good bank to take over guaranteed deposits of under 100,000 euros and good loans and the bad section to be left with deposits of over 100,000 euros and the bad loans be liquidated after some years. The same official said the IMF also insists that the good sections of the two banks be merged.

 

Via Xinhua (from Bloomberg),

The same sources said Saturday's negotiations centered on a levy to be imposed on deposits in the Bank of Cyprus, the island's largest lender.

 

An alternative option to impose a low levy on deposits in about 26 foreign banks operating in Cyprus was abandoned as potentially wrought with problems, including legal ones.

 

The state broadcaster said that abandoning the option to tax all deposits would possibly mean increasing the levy to up to 25 percent on Bank of Cyprus deposits over 100,000 euros (about 129,000 U.S. dollars), so as to generate about 2.8 billion euros.

 

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Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:13 | 3366655 Anglo Hondo
Anglo Hondo's picture

If this doesn't say that the EU wants Cyprus out of the club, nothing does.

Prepare for the fall of the EU Empire (of idiots).

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:14 | 3366664 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

That is a bit Kamikaze even for the EU. Probably the Commission snorted to much cocaine.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:17 | 3366676 CH1
CH1's picture

Cue the Russians!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:30 | 3366722 caconhma
caconhma's picture

The Russian oligarchy money-laundering model is not working anymore. For more than20 years, Russian oligarchy plundered Russian people, and now their money was confiscated by the Zionist Banking Mafia. Well, there is no honor left amongst thieves and gangsters anymore. It is just awful.

PS

Who is next after Berezovsky. I could not be just a one-man show.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:38 | 3366741 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Well, this clears up a couple of things:

 

1. The Cypriot banks have not just lost their capital.  They have lost a multiple of their capital.

2. The Jew Bankers running this show would rather drive all of Europe into the ground than imperil their lousy 2 billion of "senior preferred."

    Stupid is as stupid does.  The Russians are thugs, but they are not idiots.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 09:38 | 3368094 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

One of the functions of cental banks is to 'save' banks when they need to be recapitalized for the exact scenario that is occuring in Cyprus. The amount of money that would be required to recapitalize the banks in Cyprus would not be seriously inflationary because of the amount of money vaporized by all the defaulting sovereign debt.  The amount of money that they would print would not only save the depositors, but would also save all the cascading chain of secondary and tertiary  counterparties that are going to get shit - hammered when these banks fail.

      Stealing depositors savings ( or just even the threat of stealing the deposits ), and the resulting effect of the banks no longer being a safe place for anyones money - will result in disasterous long term consequences for the entire banking system in Europe. They have already let the cat out of the bag, and there is no undoing what they have done.  Money will go where it is treated best, that is under a mattress or in a home safe.  

     The only reason that TPTB could be doing this is because they must want a complete collapse of the economy. They want money to go into hiding.  The last depression (where no one trusted the entire banking system) lasted 25 years. 

                                                                                                                   

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:45 | 3366777 morning
morning's picture

If I were a cypriot MP I'd be living inside a steel box under the arctic for the next twenty eons.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:13 | 3366871 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Abusers are never satisfied. Their demands will continue to escalate.  

Hopefully, this is starting to dawn on the Cyprus MP's and they will let the bad banks go bankrupt. Fuck equity and the bondholders.

Assuming the banks have zero, the ECB should still be liable for all <100k euro accounts and Cyprus could cram bonds guaranteed by natgas down on the account holders that they would've otherwise defaulted on.  The bonds would obviously be traded at less than par.

Who thinks Blackrock has CDS exposure if the banks fail?  

Larry Fink admitted that he was a consultant to the Cypriot government.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 21:56 | 3367442 Buck Johnson
Buck Johnson's picture

You think this is about Money Laundering operations, it's not.  Look at the Cayman Islands, Isle of Mann, Switzerland, Luxembourg etc..  Those places launder money and to be honest with you they are having serious problems financially also (it was in the news a few years ago that Luxembourg banks are financially insolvent).  I read an article on ZH a few days ago talking about how black accounts aka dark money is used around the planet and I'll add another.  If your a oligarch or a ruler of a country that is hiding your money lets say an easy 1 billion dollars (I know there are people who have a few million but the more money you have the better the concierge).  That money is put into banks in said countries, what do you think the bank is doing with that money besides charging a fee?  The are using that money just like any other bank in leveraged operations and "secure" loans.  And in their minds they most likely did the derivative thing and also pay for insurance just in case it doesn't work out it pays the full amount on the derivatives.  You have to look at it from the point of view of the banks, there hasn't ever been a failure of the derivative system, ever (but now it's come to pass). 

That money and other hot money and oligarch money and such is tied up in much of these banks along all the lines I described.  So if the Derivative system goes down or Cyprus goes into default it means it's bonds and other financial instruments that are associated with the country are in trouble.  Of course the investors would say this credit event would be call for the insurance to come into effect (where the insurance pays the full amount on the bonds and the derivative contracts on thos bonds and on and on).  Since we know the derivatives around the planets if in the quadtrillion, lets say that all the contracts on just Cyprus is a 200 billion.  The banks or AIG (the insurance company that insured most of the derivative contracts) don't have 200 billion (and that is the contracts that is known, remember the derivative market isn't regulated it could be alot more and most likely is) to pay out.  And if they don't pay out then the banks and the insurance company are bust and then not only is the minimum 200 billion dollars they contracted on is not collectable it makes the rest of the bonds and derivatives that was put out there and insured to be suspect (really outright fraudulent).  It's starts a cascade of people trying to redeem billions and trillions that isn't possible.  That is the reason why Cyprus isn't important, it's not their economy it's the fact that who have been insuring there derivatives and bonds can't make good and in so being can't make good on the rest of the planet.

I think the reason why Germany and a few others pushed Cyprus was one big reason, I think Germany wants out o the EU (they are essentially the bank of the EU anymore) but everytime they hint and haw about leaving and such they get shamed via the Hitler and WWII and Germany destroying europe again that they back off.  By pushing Cyprus they can make it seem that Cyprus is the one to blame for the destruction of the EU and euro.  This sounds foolish but in Germany's mind they think that they can weather the storm.  I don't think so but who knows.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:44 | 3366774 TraderTimm
TraderTimm's picture

What amazes me about this situation is Russia hasn't parked a destroyer out in the water with its mighty guns trained on the parliment building.

Or maybe they have a sub waiting for an order, who knows.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:04 | 3366846 AlaricBalth
AlaricBalth's picture

There are dozens of Russian banks which are domiciled outside of Cypress that were set up specifically to funnel money into Cyprus banks, specifically The Bank Of Cyprus. If and when this bank goes, so do these Russian Banks. Here is one of many:

Russian Commercial Bank Ltd
Company Description: RCB provides its Clients with a banking environment that is securely based in the European Union, has the advantages of the Cyprus flexible tax legislation, is in touch with the realities of doing business in the former Soviet Union, and understands the ever-increasing service needs of the Russian businesses. Our strategyReliable and trustworthy expertise provided to the clients, complete confidentiality of client information, reputable and untarnished reputation within Russian business circles and Cyprus community. Shareholders and managementPossessing a Vneshtorgbank's guarantee on all its obligations, Russian Commercial Bank is supported by the biggest Russian banking institution.
http://www.zoominfo.com/#!search/profile/company?companyId=160989449&targetid=profile

The General Director of this Russian Bank is Nikolai A. Anoschko. Nikolai also has another currency algorithm trading operation registered in Cyprus through the Central Bank of Cyprus ICIS registry.
http://www.centralbank.gov.cy/media//pdf/CLSE_LIST_20_03_13.pdf

There are many more. Cyprus could not only cause contagion in Europe but will likely spread to the Russian banking system.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:37 | 3366951 machineh
machineh's picture

Eh. Wasn't there some nastiness back in 1998? They called it the 'Russia/LTCM crisis.'

Russia's back in the tank, you say.

And this time, the Federal Reserve's PhD morons are playing LTCM, with huge leveraged bets that couldn't go wrong.

Bernanke's biography will have to be titled, When Genius Failed (Part Deux).

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:44 | 3367665 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Man, and Russia with all them tanks, aircraft and gasp, Nukulure weaponz!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:04 | 3366847 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Today's Ruskies are not the Soviet Union.  They have plenty of nukes and polonium.  Other than that, not much.

They start showing subs about 2 minutes into this.  Most of them were scuttled in the harbor.  Latvia?

http://video.search.yahoo.com/video/play;_ylt=A2KLqIMTJU5RYSAANVn7w8QF;_...

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:07 | 3366853 tbd108
tbd108's picture

It has been pointed out elsewhere that all the flights from Moscow to Cyprus all full these days (even though it is not tourist season). I suspect this is enough to get the Cypriot "leaders" attention.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:48 | 3366988 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

What amazes me about this situation is Russia hasn't parked a destroyer out in the water with its mighty guns trained on the parliment building.

Or maybe they have a sub waiting for an order, who knows.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-17/russia-sending-permanent-warshi...

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:02 | 3366841 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I doubt the Russians could offer that dyke Lagarde any more muff than the Cypriots. It's an IMF issue now and if I were Cyprus, I would say "we have oil, go fuck yourself."

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:52 | 3367005 TomGa
TomGa's picture

John - you should do a special ed. of JMR about all of this.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:18 | 3366682 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

*Commission [ers]

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:23 | 3366698 Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

They want Cyprus out but think they can stop contagion. 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 22:58 | 3367531 glenlloyd
glenlloyd's picture

When have they ever been right about anything....never. The risk of contagion increased 10x the day they first announced their (blundered) plan to 'tax' Cypriot bank accounts...even those under 100k. Every day since that time that Cypriot banks were first closed has likely increased the anxiety in other peripheral countries in the EU. The implication of what the troika / IMF is doing to account holders in Cyprus will become relevant to all other peripheral country citizens and beyond I would think.

This is so bad, the troika is just flailing all over the place...and the IMF, they're never there to help, just making more trouble. The IMF should be closed down IMO.

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:18 | 3366882 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

Smell that??

 

Smell like, global rebellion.

I think this is gonna get real ugly, real fast.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:17 | 3366674 Silver Bug
Silver Bug's picture

Kick the banksters OUT Cyprus!

 

http://ericsprott.blogspot.ca/

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:49 | 3366994 Mentaliusanything
Mentaliusanything's picture

The interpreter got it a little wrong. what was actually said was " Not a snowballs chance in Hell"

 but its all greek to me.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:13 | 3366656 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Forward :)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:14 | 3366659 Legolas
Legolas's picture

I'm not sure TPTB want a deal.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:33 | 3366728 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Seems like the IMF is really blocking any progress ("inflexble position"). They also came up with the deposit tax idea in the first place. Assuming the IMF represents the US, then the US wants to open up another front in the covert war with Russia:

1.) Fight a proxy military conflict in Syria (and Iran).

Now

2.) Confiscate Russian deposits in Cyprus, amoung them massive amounts of Russian intelligencia money.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:14 | 3366660 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

So who is handing out the Molotovs there? Lets get this party started!

{CUE HEAVY METAL MUSIC}

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:56 | 3366661 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Fifth grade math students in Cyprus cheer!  

As EU technocrats and CY politicians continue to struggle with the concept of simple math, Ms. Whocouldanodios commented, "My students have worked really hard on ratios this year, and I'm so proud that their work was received by the IMF in time."

In France, a group of 3rd grade math students are gathering to protest how unfair ratios really are.  It is unknown if 2nd grade Irish math students will join in the demonstration.

In Iceland, the Math-out-Loud event scheduled for tomorrow just picked up the endorsement of the American based group The Little Urban Achiever's Conclave...whose spokesman was laughing too hard to provide comment.  However, an unnamed source with close ties to the organization has said that the founder's comment was, "Careful man, there's a beverage here!"  

Will they are won't they?  Can they...or can they not?  Just how 10+7=100 is yet to be determined...as the IMF, the ECB, the EU and math fans everywhere struggle with the problem. 

More as news becomes available to us...

 

NEWS FLASH...2nd grade Irish math students showed up at the Protest Against Unfair Ratios demonstration in France.  But it wasn't their support they came to offer.  Instead, the scene became violent, as Irish 2nd graders beat the crap out of their 3rd grade French counterparts.  It was pandemonios!  When the teacher of the Irish 2nd grade contingency was asked for comment, she said, "It was an unfortunate and misplaced expression of a lesson she had recently covered with her students on 'principle.'"  

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:16 | 3366663 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Anyone trying to do a deal with those Troika slave traders should have their teeth kicked in then be arrested and put in prison.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:14 | 3366665 Brit_Abroad
Brit_Abroad's picture

Oh boy. Bring it on already.

Light the fuse and jump ship.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:14 | 3366668 Its Only Rock N Roll
Its Only Rock N Roll's picture

Now that the " Berezovsky message" from The Russian Billionaires Club has circulated a deal will be hard to forge that imposes deep haircuts on their money.  Jut sayin'

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:24 | 3366704 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Letters from Moscow coming in by the minute.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:16 | 3366672 Lost Word
Lost Word's picture

Maybe they are waiting until Obummer gets back from vacation.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:16 | 3366673 mjorden
mjorden's picture

Cyprus should exit the Euro, and open up shop to compete with Gitmo.  They are literally right 'there', it will save the US a lot of transportation (and P.R.) costs. marginal benefit = AMAZING, marginal cost = leaving Europe .. hmmm, choices.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:58 | 3366819 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Gitmo... Cuban Missle Crisis... Cyprus has... "extra" Tupolev Tu-95 capable landing strips on that side of the island, a pre-built military base that the existing NATO lease could be revoked on, and relatively easy construction of a pier to resupply an SSBN... Something tells me the west's first string team isn't so good at poker if things moved in that direction, and the US could actually cave into foreign expansion demands rather than send a few hours worth of .gov spending that Ben can effortlessly whip up in a matter of minutes to prevent such a humiliation and strategic defeat.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:56 | 3367024 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"and the US could actually cave into foreign expansion demands rather than send a few hours worth of .gov spending that Ben can effortlessly whip up in a matter of minutes"

<FONT/SARC/ON>

Uhhhm dude, have you forgotten? - SEQUESTER, hellooooo...............

<FONT/SARC/OFF>

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:24 | 3367231 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

Both Barry's Golf allotment and CIA petty cash have more than enough (not that Benny & the Inkjets need Congress's permission anyway).

The ever-widening Schauble gap is chump change compared to what these spend regularyly, but it just isn't practical/possible for a tiny island like Cyprus, which is why the while thing is so sick.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:18 | 3366679 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

"Fuck it, lets go bowling."

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:35 | 3366736 lolmao500
lolmao500's picture

Nihilists! Fuck me. I mean, say what you like about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it's an ethos.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:50 | 3366798 freeasabee1
freeasabee1's picture

there is no truth, and everything is permitted!?  let's ride!!!!!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:23 | 3366899 EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

I once dabbled in pacifism, not in Nam of course

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:36 | 3367117 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

I'm here to fix your cable.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:18 | 3366683 yrad
yrad's picture

Like playing poker with my sister's kids...

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:21 | 3366693 HD
HD's picture

There will be a "deal" - bankers always get what they want.  Love to be wrong, but when push comes to shove the politicians always cave.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:23 | 3366696 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

HD, let's say there is a deal. Whatever it is.

Who cares?

They open thedoors to those banks after that deal is struck and those banks are emptied immediately, and they know it.

So hoe does a "deal" solve anything?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:26 | 3366710 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

Knowing that wouldnt you prefer a no deal? Someone to take the blame? There will be no deal, banks will not open, capital controls are against the EU Treaty.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:29 | 3366719 ekm
ekm's picture

I like your logic

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:30 | 3366723 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

ekm are we going to hear that a European PD is heavily exposed to Cyprus credit this week?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:37 | 3366743 ekm
ekm's picture

There are too many moving parts. It's like a russian doll. People are committing suicide.

 

I can tell you one thing  though, the news that IMF is making new demands by the hour means only thing:

They are waiting for orders from the White House, whether Obama (or whomever is behind him) will give the order to Benny to bailout Cyprus.

 

The situation reminds me of AIG. After Lehman bankrupted, 72 hrs later the Fed found money to bailout AIG. The reason: As per Art Cashin's interview to Kingworldnews few months ago, european leaders called the White House and begged for AIG bailout.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:42 | 3366768 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

In all fairness, AIG was multiple times more important to the real economy than Lehman. An insurance company of the size of AIG is interconnected with everything. If they'd failed, the whole global insurance system would have collapsed. Reinsurers would have gone bust etc.

----

Regarding the CDS exposure:

Goldman and Morgan Stanley stocks were hardest hit last week, both down 6.5%. That might be an indicator.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:44 | 3366776 ekm
ekm's picture

Absolutely agree.

What is really, really news that is not paid attention to is that the DOJ "revealed" a criminal investigation on JPM's whale only a couple of hours after JPM board decided that Dimon will remain a semi-god.

It's civil war within wall street, I'd say. Survival of the fittest.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:41 | 3366762 ekm
ekm's picture

You americans have to understand something:

 

Whenever europeans have a problem or create a problem, they call the White House to fix the problem. 

It's been like this, it is like this and it will be like this.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:52 | 3366802 Irelevant
Irelevant's picture

I guess Obama is high as a kite, sees no problems.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:07 | 3366856 ekm
ekm's picture

The problem with Obama is that he is totally clueless about anything. It just happened by accident he became president because his goal was to become president 8 years later.

 

Since he's a constitutional lawyer by profession, he understands nothing about economics, hence the only thing that matters is JOB APPROVAL.

 

George Bush, at least, when he understood it was all over, released the crude oil from storage and off shore to revive the energy starved economy.

 

There seems to be a change. He was in Israel and basically told Bibi that he doesn't really mind what Bibi does.

 

Let's see what he decides for this one. Legally, it all depends on him.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:17 | 3366881 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I think he is smart enough to understand that a crisis will only increase his power, especially if he can blame wall street.

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:21 | 3366895 ekm
ekm's picture

His approval ratings are collapsing. That's what matters.

I remind you of your commitment to come and visit me in Toronto if my conjecture plays out. I'm saying, be prepared to rent a car :)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:36 | 3366948 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I should have made a flip side to that commitment. If it is not a PD and is actually an insurer (AXA, Commerzbank etc.) and asked you to join me for a beverage in NYC.

I am supposed to head up to Niagara falls in the Summer. I may end up jumping over to Toronto. As a matter of fact I am pretty sure I will be.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:38 | 3366955 ekm
ekm's picture

:)

Don't worry. I relieve you of that commitment.

Done. :)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:43 | 3366978 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

let's see what happens. I don't see how they put this horse back in the barn. 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:43 | 3367141 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

I agree with you completely.  The Troika fucked up by attacking depositors and giving banks a holiday.  It's now a double error. 

People that have starved in the past, when finally having access to food will stash bits everywhere, just in case.  This shit won't soon be forgotten as everyone in Europe will ask themselves what they would do if banks closed for a week and a half.

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:24 | 3366903 ekm
Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:31 | 3366919 EINSILVERGUY
EINSILVERGUY's picture

He is not a constitutional lawyer.  Barack Obama was merely an 'instructor' at Chicago Law School, not a professor. Commonly, instructors are non-tenure-track teachers hired by colleges and universities to teach certain courses for a salary that is well below that of Associate Professors or full Professors

He is nothing more than a affirmative action recipient who hustled his way around Chicago as a community organizer and attorney for Acorn. He got in with the Hyde Park crowd and using dubious tactics got elected to the Illinois stae house.

The guy is the biggest over achiever in political history who redefines the term incompetant on a daily basis

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:32 | 3366931 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx a lot. I had no nerves of researching about a clueless president.

He drives me nuts, so clueless.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:53 | 3366810 HD
HD's picture

Hence the capital controls. As I said the other day, I think there will be a slow bank bleed not a run in the PIIGS from here on out.  I just wonder if much of that money will end up in the US and allow the TBTF banks even more fire power to push equities higher. It never ends.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:15 | 3366874 ekm
ekm's picture

There's no need for foreign money to push US equities higher.

primary dealers, US based or foreign based have been doing that since DOW 11k by selling the same batch of stocks to each-other continuously.

Any point of DOW above 11k has no meaning, none whatsoever. It can be 11k, 15k, 20k.

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:27 | 3366910 HD
Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:31 | 3366921 ekm
ekm's picture

Ah, we're in violent agreement :)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:21 | 3367230 reload
reload's picture

Your earlier thoughts on Russians holding derivatives.....Dresdner/ Commerz had a big Russian securitization group,run from London ( with the children of some high up Russian bankers /Putin cronies working as grad trainees - they were hooked in and writing BIG tickets) part of the profit was generated when the Russian business who had just cashed an asset via securitization would buy some protection on the destination of the money. I know dresdnrr did not write much protection, they acted as broker. I think Alianz probably was a significant originator.

That was a couple of years ago, the contracts could still be in place' but they could have expired.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:31 | 3367255 ekm
ekm's picture

Thx a lot. Information like this is precious.

How many of those kinds of protection could have been written and purchased all over europe and usa?

Notionally it is in hundreds of trillions.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:31 | 3366726 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

Of course, you're absolutely right.  There is always a magic in exremis deal. Tomorrow afternoon approximately, we'll get a first rumor that something is underway after all and then, lo and behold: late Sunday night or early Monday morning... ta-da! Phew... banksters saved again.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:34 | 3366733 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

and then what? Play the hand out. Banks open on Tuesday in Cyprus and  Russians pull up in Ferrari's to deposit more money now that all is well?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:19 | 3366889 ekm
ekm's picture

I remember Rolls Royce's boss last year's interview on Bloomberg.

He said that business was booming and in order to lure buyers they had come up with a CHEAPER version of the car, about $300k.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:41 | 3367134 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

Good point, fonzannoon.  No Russian deposits in Cyprus on Tuesday for sure, but then no withdrawals will be allowed either. Perhaps this "deal" will result in a stalemate until the Bernanke machine comes up with another devious plan to ensure that the banksters once again emerge unscathed from this new crisis... until the next one, and the next one, ad infinitum. You just can't kill the beast, so it would seem.   

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:35 | 3366739 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Who says that bankers don't want another banking crisis? GS, JPM et al. profited massively from the 2008/09 meltdown.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:45 | 3366780 ekm
ekm's picture

Bingo

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:23 | 3366697 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

It's a Schroedinger Deal.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:10 | 3366866 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

That is so warped and so true.

(Failed thought experiment.  The cat was just fine.)

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 02:01 | 3367712 Nobody For President
Nobody For President's picture

Except instead of a cat in a box, it is a deposit in a Cyprus bank.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:24 | 3366701 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Who preferred to remain anonymous

Someone will expose this closed door democracy process.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:25 | 3366705 B2u
B2u's picture

Deal or No Deal?  They could make a game show about this.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:27 | 3366711 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Not within "touching distance"? If they were, it would likely be inappropriate touching.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:26 | 3366712 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Just end that misery, there is no solution at all. Default is only resonable outcome.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:27 | 3366713 Cheshire
Cheshire's picture

I remember when they did this with the Greeks and it backfired cause the Greeks will take a bad deal.  

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:28 | 3366716 Stuck on Zero
Stuck on Zero's picture

Can someone set me straight ...  Cyprus banks are empty so the government needs to take 5-10% of nothing to fund a bailout.  Afraid that people will run away from the country with the moeny that doesn't exist they will put in Capital controls to prevent people leaving with nothing.  Is this what I'm hearing?

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:38 | 3366748 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

The Cypriot banking system and the overall economy is dead no matter what they come up with.

Capital flights will happen even if there's no deposit tax.

Foreign investment will never come back.

Future retirees will think twice before spending their golden years over there.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:39 | 3366753 zhandax
zhandax's picture

I sense a perception issue here.  If Cyprus went Iceland and liquidated the banks, the >100,000 depositors would stand in line with general creditors and possibly get 30% of their money back.  Cloud the issue with a bailout, and suddenly everyone on ZH is wailing about the 'poor Russians' loosing 70% of their money.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:45 | 3366778 swissaustrian
swissaustrian's picture

Not paying off foreign depositors to save your own country (Iceland) is something totally different than killing your own economy to save foreign banks and a failed supranational currency project (Cyprus). Cyprus is in trouble because of it's exposure to Greece, not because of the Russian black money.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:59 | 3366832 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

Print the Lira needed and make Greece pay back the debt in Lira. If they can take depositor money ahead of bondholders, then they should be able to force this upon the Greeks. Cyprus and all the troubled EU countries need to get the hell out of the EU now or they may as well forget about keeping their national identities.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:41 | 3366969 zhandax
zhandax's picture

Cyprus is in trouble

This is more correct than not, but demonstrates how this gets really complicated fast.  Strictly speaking, it is Cyprus' banks which are in trouble.  The country is only in trouble to the extent that the majority of their economic model is centered around those banks.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:39 | 3366752 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

Dell, company which assembles Chinese parts and uses US Post to deliver goods is worth around 25 Bln$ and Cyprus wants to get into slave position for 7 bln. What the fuck is wrong with this world?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:45 | 3366775 zhandax
zhandax's picture

That $25B is market cap, which is the number of shares outstanding times the dollars suckers are currently willing to pay for them.  Perceptions change and sometimes suddenly; deposits in Cyprus were worth 100% two weeks ago.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:28 | 3366821 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

So perceptions are so important? Still they can default, start custom free zone, assembly Dell computers + Apple things, charge them only 5% tax. Use their resources as they like, copper + gas. Manufacture ciggs, booze whatever, you'll be rough country but living nice. They have to use their status as the country on the border of 3 worlds, Russia, EU and Turkey as representative of Islamic world. It will be difficult for 1 or 2 years but in comparison what they want from them is nothing.

If they decide to do that probably there will be hundreds of hedge and other funds to help them to survive tough times.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:53 | 3367019 zhandax
zhandax's picture

At this point, the politicians need to be thinking of personal safety.  It is beginning to appear inevitable the Russian depositors take it up the ass under any scenario available.  UBS isn't stupid enough to take over one of those banks and that is probably what would be required to prevent a run as soon as they are opened which those banks don't have the cash to cover.  They may need an ally after giving a group of pissed-off Russian mobsters a hard on.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:42 | 3366766 debtor of last ...
debtor of last resort's picture

When things get serious, you have to die.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:44 | 3366980 machineh
machineh's picture

Print freely or die.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:46 | 3366782 deebee
deebee's picture

The saga continues with same shit different country.

Didnt Slovakia kick up a fight before deciding to bend over and take it?

So will the Cypriots choose vaseline or gasoline?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:49 | 3366789 jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

holy sh@T

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:52 | 3366809 slightlyskeptical
slightlyskeptical's picture

I think Cyprus should just start up the Lira printing presses. Pass a law that all Euro deposits and liabilities are to be converted to Lira's on a one for one basis. Over time those Lira would end up being taken out of circulation as the whole debt/deposit works itself out.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:18 | 3366883 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

You keep saying Lira.

Thats Turkish currency.The Cypriots had the cypriot pound.

If they exit the euro as they should,no way in hell will their new currency

be a lira.Turkish coffeee is Greek coffee in Greece/Cyprus.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:28 | 3366913 Getting Old Sucks
Getting Old Sucks's picture

Doesn't matter, if no one accepts whatever currency they print, they're fucked.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:15 | 3367074 Iam_Silverman
Iam_Silverman's picture

"Doesn't matter, if no one accepts whatever currency they print, they're fucked."

Well, hell, then why not print USD?  I am sure that Uncle Ben has a recipe they can use......

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:50 | 3367159 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

People will accept it because it'll be backed by the assests of the Cyprus church, gas fields, and gold, to name three.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:00 | 3367036 Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

It also was the Italian currency. Who will have the lira back earlier, Cyprus or Italy?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 17:56 | 3366826 Croesus
Croesus's picture

Bernanke to Europe: SAVE THE PAPER!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:00 | 3366830 exartizo
exartizo's picture

Everything is proceeding according to plan...they are determined to make Cyprus a "test case" to see what "contagion" to the rest of the EU might look like on a relatively small scale with minimal to nonexistent counterparty derivative risk involved.

Make no mistake, Cyprus is deliberately being "hung out to dry".

Watch out Greece et al.

You're next.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:23 | 3366898 Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

They are not even waiting.

John Ward's blog is reporting Schnauble is already proposing a 15% haircut for

Italian depositors,and they already have capital controls in force there.

1000 euros per day wthdrawl max.

This is moving fast .Get out of any bank or paper NOW.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:51 | 3367006 Gunga
Gunga's picture

Maybe the US will make it to Easter weekend before our banks seize up.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 21:49 | 3367429 Esso
Esso's picture

I'm wondering about that myself.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:04 | 3367044 ekm
ekm's picture

Pissing off russians and chinese is one issue. Pissing off italian mafia is another issue.

Schauble better stay with bodyguards all this life.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:18 | 3367077 Day_Of_The_Tentacle
Day_Of_The_Tentacle's picture

Those withdrawal limits exist in Northern Europe as well. It is nothing new. Not right - but not new. The official reason id to limit the damage, when plastic cards are lifted and abused. 

Other capital controls, I believe, was introduced earlier this year in Spain when cash transactions above a certain amount (2500 or 5000 if I remember correctly) was banned. Legal tender - but only "up" to a certain degree ay? After that only electrons in a bank account will work... oh wait....

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:31 | 3367651 Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Only transactions in cash were banned. That's not capital controls.
Although it is BS.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:36 | 3366947 Spectre
Spectre's picture

No doubt, Cyprus is the EU's Lehmann Bros.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:10 | 3366867 Debugas
Debugas's picture

they should simply declare the two banks bankrupt and proceed with ordinary bankruptcy procedure

 

as to the new demands "option to impose a low levy on deposits in about 26 foreign banks operating in Cyprus was abandoned"

the very fact they considered this indicates every depositor to RUN

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:16 | 3366877 gatorengineer
gatorengineer's picture

 

Yawn, Merkel pulls a boenner in 5,4,3,2,1..........

 

Any Benny gets involved via the IMF.........

 

No brainer, nothing to see here....................................  S&P all time high monday....

 

Can kicked down the road.....

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:18 | 3366884 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Queen - I Want To Break Free
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bRdo7WXTVoM (4:28)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:26 | 3366906 Poor Grogman
Poor Grogman's picture

As winter approached and the food supply dwindled the weakest antelopes were forced away from the protection of the herd to live or die in the wilderness.

No remorse was shown by other members of the herd and the sad plight of the weaker members was soon forgotten...

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:32 | 3366927 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

But, but... I thought...

ICELAND, bitchez & hoes.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 18:32 | 3366934 Spectre
Spectre's picture

I'm enjoying this Cyprus action moreso than all of the previous EU soap operas with their down to the wire activity.

In other news, friends of mine this morning in Grand Cayman said there is a somber mood along with outright fear by some that there are parts of this Cypriot story that havent surfaced that will start a time bomb on a few derivative positions that could start a real live Dominoes chain reaction.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 04:59 | 3367792 Debugas
Debugas's picture

Lebanon is collapssing as a result because they operated through Cyprus banks

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:08 | 3367051 ozzz169
ozzz169's picture

Here is how stupid and gutless these politicians are...

There are no good options out there, so instead of just telling the people the truth, we are screwed, there is going to be some pain but we will come back stronger. We will leave the euro, restructure, stabilize the economy, get government spending under control and then we will be set for gang buster growth and we have some nice natural resources that will help up in the future to grow and recover.

Instead they are going to beg hat in hand to the russians/troika and sell the soul of the country, and ensure a very long painful period, that will last for god knows how long. Most likely will give away most the profits from future revenue of natural gas and screw the country even more.

In this world of elitists you would expect nothing less, would just be nice to see some politician/country somewhere set a shining example and buck the system and tell the elitists that they are full of it and do what is best for the people they are suppose to represent, but then they would not get the millions of kick backs on the back end, and live like kings on the backs of the people they claim to be looking out for.

 

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:13 | 3367066 Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

I like you, you did not even try to insert your idea in first row like all those loser do to get attention and green arrows.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:29 | 3367102 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

the original ecb deal was fund the banks, take 15 % from the over 100k crowd.

that morphed into a 9.9 over 100k and 6+% on the under 100k crowd at the insistance of the pres of cyp.

either he made a mistake of immense proportion, thinking he could deliver the votes, or the game afoot is so complex that it can never be solved.

the simpler of the two is my view. he thought he could deliver the deal to save his cronies money. but was way wrong.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 22:11 | 3367469 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

The Banks in Cyprus won't open again.. count on it.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:14 | 3367551 dojufitz
dojufitz's picture

Just devalue the paper against Gold you fuckers....all debts paid......anyone with Gold will sell it.....

move on.....

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