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What If Cyprus Left The Euro

Tyler Durden's picture





 

As we recently discussed, many euroskeptics are pushing Cypriot lawmakers to default, devalue, and decouple from the Euro - understanding that the short-term pain of such a move will lead to much more sustainable gains afterwards. But BofAML raises the question of what damage (and required response) would occur in the remainder of the European Union should Cyprus leave (or be pushed ). Unlike some EU leaders suggestions, BofAML suggests the contagion and growth impacts could last a decade; but it is the policy reaction of the ECB that is most crucial to understand and how it may rapidly lead to a German decision on debt mutualization (or not) that should be most concerning.

 

Via BofAML,

alternative scenario: Cyprus defaults, exits, confidence is shaken

 

In this scenario, the possibility of a country exiting the Eurozone could revive contagion risks, only to be mitigated by much more forceful policy reactions. We would see such a scenario materialising if negotiations failed, leading to a default on private and then public debt in Cyprus. In that scenario, when banks reopened, deposit flights would kill bank solvency and the ECB would veto ELA.

 

As a result, banks would default and since the sovereign is not in a position to nationalise the banks and cover the deposit insurance, it would be likely to default as well. This would probably be followed by a strong policy response from the ECB. In that case, to contain a potential run on the peripheral banks, the ECB would have to use more of its unconventional tools: first, more LTRO, together with rate cuts and possibly further collateral loosening to cheapen the price of liquidity as much as possible; second, possibly bond buying if there was a sell-off of periphery bond countries.

 

To contain the run on sovereigns, the ECB would have to proceed with extensive bond buying. OMT is a tool designed for countries with temporary liquidity, which might not be perfectly suited for a rapid deterioration of several countries’ bond markets that would reflect contagion. Against that backdrop, the ECB could be forced to intervene directly, though we believe such purchases could not take place (for more than a couple of days and by a limited amount such as the SMP) without the implicit support of core countries. Given the contentious nature of sovereign bond purchases and fiscal transfers in the eurozone, for markets to be fully convinced, in our view, the agreement by core countries would then have to be followed by a political process endorsing the debt mutualisation by the ECB together with a transfer of sovereignty at the euro level.

 

What does this mean for economic performance?

 

In a Cypriot exit scenario, we would expect a significant uncertainty shock but not as severe as that caused by the Lehman collapse, given that the economic cycle and leverage has changed markedly. First, given economies’ positions in the cycle, the current level of inventories is much lower (Chart 2).

 

 

Second, financial integration and leverage has diminished. Overall, the shock would be more contained geographically and in magnitude, in our view, but would still be sizeable and only contained thanks to large policy response. In our view, consumption and investment would be particularly affected, albeit much less than in the Lehman episode, as investment is far from fully recovered across most euro-area countries (Chart 3).

 

 

However, we would expect a similar contraction in exports – because roughly half of Eurozone countries’ exports are directed to their euro partners.

 

Although putting a number to such an uncertain outcome is complicated, we use recent research (see Box 1.3 of the World Economic Outlook of October 2012) to provide some guidance. According to this research, a one standard deviation increase in uncertainty is associated with a decline in output growth of between 0.4ppt and 1.25ppt. Assuming the uncertainty shock resembles that of Q4 2011 this would imply a headwind to our 2013 forecast of -0.5% of between -1% and -2.5%. In other words, we would expect a GDP contraction of between 1.5% and 3%, that is, a middle point below 2%.

 

What about the long run under this scenario? The special treatment of deposits and the imposition of semi-capital control has the implicit effect of underlining the fragmentation between the North and the South. Once again, the lack of respect for capital structure when designing programmes leads to the perception that restructuring in the Eurozone rests on arbitrary decisions, which clearly damages investment cases in the euro area, particularly in countries with pending deleveraging.

 

Conclusion: endangering Eurozone trend growth

 

The eurozone crisis has permanently damaged the euro area’s growth potential, unless economic reforms can boost investment and productivity again. In the absence of a considerable boost to economic policy, but assuming a standard recovery, Europe’s large countries trend growth would be lower at c.1.3% in 2015-20. But in our previous work we had assumed as a central scenario that the investment growth rate returns to its pre-crisis level by 2020.

 

In other words, the underlining of fragmentation that would come with a Cypriot exit would bring us closer to our scenario of much slower investment growth in 2015-20. In this situation trend growth in the four main economies in the Eurozone would be cut by an average of 1%, bringing France and Spain to a growth rate of 0.4%, Germany to 0.0%, and Italy to -0.6% on average during 2015-20.

 


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Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:22 | Link to Comment Gunga
Gunga's picture

Whistling past the graveyard.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:24 | Link to Comment BC6
Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

I just read that now the Troika is demanding that the south free all its slaves.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:41 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

Here's my email to my "dyed-in-the-wool intellectual Keynesian" brother who is a graduate from Princeton Univeristy. What do you think? Will he ever talk to me again? 

 

------------------

 

From: ====
Sent: Saturday, March 23, 2013 19:20
To: '=====
Subject: RE: Why Austrians believe in hyperinflation.

 

 

As much as the establishment pseudo-intellectual economists despise bit-coin, (and I don’t trust it as much as I do my gold coins, but I respect it entirely as a free-market entity that is beyond the control (for the moment) of menacing “do-gooders”), it is however very real and very much in use as a mechanism of the free market to counter the fascist/communist/totalitarian nature of the end goal of pompous, arrogant, anti-human and pro fake-science (with their self-congratulatory awards and meaningless paper certificates from so-called “accredited academic institutions” which should be teaching higher science but which (in the field of economics anyway) have reverted to entirely discredited “witch-doctor economics”) Keynesianism – and that alone is reason enough to pay some respect to it.

 

How The Only Market That Is Open Reacted To Today's News & Rumors

 

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-23/how-only-market-open-reacted-todays-news-rumors

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

I'm trying to think of some topic that you didn't cover in that incredibly long opening sentence.

Nope, I think you got it all.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:55 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

If you've been reading ZeroHedge for any amount of time then I'm sure you are used to the verbose and insulting-to-the-establishment use of opening sentences which some times do run on but which contain more truth than a dozen dissertations from most accredited university Ph. D. graduates in the field of pseudo-economics.

 

If not then I'm pretty sure it's shocking to you. :)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:56 | Link to Comment knukles
knukles's picture

Huh?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:59 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

It's my verbose way of saying: "Hi-five" to Joe moneybags

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:47 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Dude - your brother is a Princeton grad and a Keynesian stooge?    You could have just sent him a short and concise email that would have delivered the message.  It would have been very ZH too.

F**k Paul Krugman!  

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:07 | Link to Comment flacon
flacon's picture

I already tried that. And I already tried the Krugman is Keynes reincarnated. Nothing seems to work. 

 

Maybe I should bleed his ankles and rid him of the bad juu-juu... 

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 01:07 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Keynes would roll over in his grave with the mere suggestion as such.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment Bendromeda Strain
Bendromeda Strain's picture

They buried him on top of a little boy to prevent that...

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 22:40 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Aspiring to the style of Tyler.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I gave him a +1 for a nice run-on sentence.

What do you think, Mr Spock. Spock, Spock!? Where's that bloody Vulcan?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:33 | Link to Comment Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

"As much as the establishment pseudo-intellectual economists despise bit-coin, (and I don’t trust it as much as I do my gold coins, but I respect it entirely as a free-market entity that is beyond the control (for the moment) of menacing “do-gooders”), it is however very real and very much in use as a mechanism of the free market to counter the fascist/communist/totalitarian nature of the end goal of pompous, arrogant, anti-human and pro fake-science (with their self-congratulatory awards and meaningless paper certificates from so-called “accredited academic institutions” which should be teaching higher science but which (in the field of economics anyway) have reverted to entirely discredited “witch-doctor economics”) Keynesianism – and that alone is reason enough to pay some respect to it."

 

I want to read this but this is only one sentence. No man can be expected to take this in from the beginning to the end. I will have forgotten the beginning when I reach the end. So I will reread the first half to remember it. Then I will just be annoyed and not remember any of it then write what I have just written.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 01:07 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

Whut?

Will you dub that in Japanese?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:52 | Link to Comment Rogue Trooper
Rogue Trooper's picture

Yes he will speak to you again.  It will be around the time that the riots start getting worse and their is a crowd of folks now gathering 'on his street' waving their, now useless, SNAP cards and holding various colorful placards, chains, baseball bats and wearing bike helmets.  "Bro" subsequently calls you in absolute panic demanding you come around to his place right now to rescue him and family with those evil assault weapons.

... at the time you will need to make that choice yourself.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 07:58 | Link to Comment ATM
ATM's picture

Lament of the psuedo-intellectual leftist:

"I didn't think it would get this bad."

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 07:28 | Link to Comment Roandavid
Roandavid's picture

I think I might have just simply gone with, "I love you because you're my brother, even though you're also a moron,"

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

Wow, this isn't good:

"...70 per cent of the island's account holders have applied to withdraw all their money if, and when, the banks ever open their doors again..."

 

[from BC6's link (above)]

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:46 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

And this new addition to the lexicon..."debt mutualization."

What the hell does that even mean?

Is Germany gonna take a credit down grade to "equalize" EU debt across the individual countries comprising the euro spectrum?

The socialized emperor is as naked as a jay bird...lol.

///////////////////

Ahhh, here it is...debt mutualization.

http://www.ceskapozice.cz/en/news/economy/why-eurozone-needs-debt-mutualization

It is as I thought...more central planning by people only concerned with managing debt.

Wonderful.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:57 | Link to Comment formadesika3
formadesika3's picture

Debt Mutualization.

Here's a simple example that should help to clarify things (I like to teach by example :-)

You cosign for a loan to get MDB's Herbalife distributorship offf to a good start :-\

When he can't make the payments and skips town in the middle of the night, you start getting phone calls...

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 21:09 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

That would be about right...lol.

I mean look at what we're talking about here. All these euro-countries (culturally) have been around for centuries. We're not talking about Burma suddenly discovering the light bulb exists.

I say either quit lending them debts they will never pay back or just give it to them as charity for the basket cases they are and quit extorting interest from them under the guise of statist compassion.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 04:55 | Link to Comment lewy14
lewy14's picture

Option three: encumber their sovereignty. Basically take them over, without firing a shot.

Look, when the "bond market" pukes up a trillion or so in Club Med bonds and the ECB buys them, then the ECB will effectively become the bond market.

The Treasuries and legislatures of all the supposedly "sovereign nations" of the southern EU will become completely subservient to the troika. They will not be able to formulate their own policy - or even really elect their own (unscreened) leaders.

See, e.g. what the ECB did to Berlusconi a while back by not intervening in the Italian bond market for a couple weeks. Gonzo. Aaand they get Monti.

A crisis which requires large scale OMT will result in devolved sovereignty instantly, de-factor, without any messy treaties, referenda, votes, or other democratic bullshit. The troika will be free to do what it likes.

I think they're begging to be thrown in that briar patch.

They just need a good crisis. They won't let it go to waste.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 07:55 | Link to Comment nmewn
nmewn's picture

Quite so.

But I would say they have willingly given over their sovereignty already. Thats what bonds are. Governments (properly run) shouldn't be in the habit of indebtedness as a device to run its day to day affairs.

It should be taxing to fund its operations or cutting back its operations to match the taxes collected. The function of how much to tax is in the process of elections. Tax too much and the people open black markets or rebel.

They believe they have gotten around certain laws of finance & governance by cozying up to creditors but they have not. Historically, the people wake up one day (in a country they no longer recognize) and look for retribution...even if they themselves allowed it or begged for it.  

So, I wouldn't want to be a foreigner, government worker, politician or banker in one of those nations when the day arrives.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:25 | Link to Comment Gordon Freeman
Gordon Freeman's picture

There is no money...

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 11:40 | Link to Comment lostintheflood
lostintheflood's picture

...70 per cent of the island's account holders have applied to withdraw all their money if, and when, the banks ever open their doors again...

 

gotta wonder why it's not 100%

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 16:58 | Link to Comment Tango in the Blight
Tango in the Blight's picture

The other 30% already took their money out.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment notbot
notbot's picture

Should be titled "When Cyprus leaves the euro"

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:37 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

"When Merkeljackals attack"

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:40 | Link to Comment freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

Friday?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 04:10 | Link to Comment Lore
Lore's picture

That article about the situation on the ground in Cyprus is telling.  Everybody is filling their boots with gold. I would bet that a lot of agencies are doing the same covertly.  

Breakup seems to be baked into the cake.  Big banks have turned subject nations into gardens for harvesting debt, and seem genuinely surprised that the citizenry objects. JUST WAIT.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:23 | Link to Comment bank guy in Brussels
bank guy in Brussels's picture

They are missing that if Cyprus blows out all the Southern countries start to blow out

Greece shortly after, then Italy, then Spain and Portugal and France

Bring it on

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:35 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

Probably Argentina is going to default first, next month, when a U.S. court in New York rules that it must pay holdouts.

Cyprus is the new Argentina: the first euro-corralito!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:12 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

I think someone commented on this before, but why didn't Iceland have to pony up? No assets worth coveting?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:56 | Link to Comment Freddie
Freddie's picture

Argentina is sort of a special case. I hate the banksters but the leftist PEronist scum and their unions have been looting and driving Argentina into the dirt for 60+ years.   The politicians are scum and the populace sort of get the govt they deserve. 

Argentina is a lot like Greece except Argentina has loads of resources especially lots of food production.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:59 | Link to Comment tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

Fook BofAML! Who gives a flying fook what these BofAML muthafuchas think that were up to their eyeballs in the U.S. finnacial crisis and should be in prison doing 40 years to life!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:01 | Link to Comment Telemakhos
Telemakhos's picture

I think you missed the third paragraph in BoA/ML's hariolation: the ECB freaks, goes Bernanke on the PIIGS bond markets buying everything in sight on Germany's dime, and then the Euro area ratifies a full-on political union to justify this to the "taxpayers" or "voters" or whatever you call the equipment of manufacturing consensus over there, becoming in effect the USofE, comprising a number of provinces/states that once were called "Germany" or "France," back in the barbaric times of nation-state democracy, henceforth to be known as "nationalist bigotry."

In other words, they throw Cyprus overboard to keep all the other rats from jumping ship long enough to make sure that they all stay in the same boat for good.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:52 | Link to Comment morning
morning's picture

Good luck with that. In Portugal even salary cuts are deemed unconstitutional. It would take 40 years or the Wehrmacht to enforce otherwise.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 21:29 | Link to Comment Telemakhos
Telemakhos's picture

I'm tempted to reply that local constitutions will be worthless scraps of paper, once the EU achieves true political union (supremacy/sovereignty) and becomes a true nation state (all while decrying the evils of nationalism). But, really, I'm not sure it matters. The Portuguese might well not see any nominal salary cuts under total Unification; without borders and competing sovereign/banking interests, there isn't any obstacle to the EU being able to achieve a steady pay for Portugal. It's just paper fiat; a unified EU would be sufficiently too-big-to-fail that they could keep shuffling around accounts to make magic promises like no-(nominal)-salary-cuts work for a few years, until the can needs to get kicked a bit further.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:37 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Yeah, first the Germans would need to have some kids to man a wehrmacht, and the lack thereof is also the source of their economic decline.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:49 | Link to Comment morning
morning's picture

Portugal first, please. I have a 42 year old bet to collect.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:25 | Link to Comment chubbyjjfong
chubbyjjfong's picture

Who takes the hit for the derivatives? 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:33 | Link to Comment toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

Probably some other EZ country just like Cyprus took the hit for Greek bonds.

Dominoes anyone?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:48 | Link to Comment butchee
butchee's picture

Maybe the ISDA just deletes a few spreadsheets with a wink and a nod from the BIS?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:14 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Their purveyor: GS. /sarc

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:25 | Link to Comment CunnyFunt
CunnyFunt's picture

For all this talk of "growth", the black market will take the lion's share.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:26 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

sleeping beauty europe; wake me up in twenty years! 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 22:35 | Link to Comment WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

Rip slept for 20.  Beauty for 100.  Europe may not ever awake again.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:40 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

It may not look real European, as they've chosen demographic disappearance.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 08:15 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTxDNIHeks4

"Delusional, I believe I can cure it all for you..."

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:28 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

The Prisoner's Dilemma

 

Question? How much is really at stake. What's the value of the diamond? Winks..

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:32 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Cyprus needs to do an Iceland.

The Western World needs to do an Iceland and hang the Bankers out to dry.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:52 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

that's what the gun people are supposed to be doing. they just talk shit. molon labe. right. bullshit. they just keep drawing lines in the sand and will jump off the cliff when they are told to.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:09 | Link to Comment ozzz169
ozzz169's picture

Then how would the politicians get all there "campain contributions" and post office "speaking fees" and "consulting fees"?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:05 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

I assume you are aware what "doing an Iceland" means, and are not caught up in the myth that Iceland did something noble.  Iceland drew in foreign deposits by promising above market rates, then tried to earn above market returns.  For a time it worked, because it encouraged, among other things, wild speculation in Icelandic property, and "proved" to all Icelanders that they really were a race of financial geniuses who had spent the last thousand years or so masquerading as fishermen.

Then the property bubble in Iceland burst, and the foreign depositors' money (which by then amounted to 10x Iceland's GDP) was gone.  Iceland told the Scottish widows and orphans---NOT bankers---to F-off.  That they projected they own sins onto domestic Icelandic bankers deserves no praise.  Yes, the Icelandic bankers screwed up, but the entire population was a willing participant, and fully prepared to gloat over their RE speculative profits and pat themselves on the back for their financial acumen.  When it turned out they were just greater fools, they told the Scottish widows and orphans to go die, then they said it was all the bankers' fault.

In the case of Cyprus, the Scottish widows and orphans are replaced by British pensioners and Russian oligarchs.  At least one of those two is less impotent than the proverbial Scots.  There are no bankers to tell "F-off".  There are only depositors.  This is not Greece, whose government borrowed to create the EU lifestyle its people could not create for themselves.  There are no bankers to be hurt, there are only depositors to be hurt.  The only negotiation taking place now is what depositors get hurt and how much.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 01:53 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

If you want to lie to yourself with omissions and half-truths, do you think it's wise to ask on ZH for confirmation?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 02:52 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Please point out the "half truths" so I understand the genesis of your delusion. Sorry I don't buy the "doughty heroes" meme so many members here project onto to Iceland.  Is suspect you were completely unaware of the blossoming disaster that was Iceland until it made the news.

Icelanders were like a neighbor who borrows your lawnmower, then tries to use it to cut down trees.  He returns it with a shattered blade and a seized engine, then tells you he didn't use all the gas he put in, so you owe him.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 09:37 | Link to Comment Bullionaire
Bullionaire's picture

+1 quadrillion for the most clueless post evah on ZH. Unless you are actually an Icelandic citizen,

STFU

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 09:55 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

Beserkers going viking is an old tradition.

Modern technology allowed them to go further afield.

The stay at home farmers refused to give their crops as restitution but chose to send the wolfskin clad adventurers to Vahalla.

Odin was pleased.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 23:31 | Link to Comment malek
malek's picture

How much did you loose in Icesave, that made you so angry to now only post black and white one-sided propagandist bullshit here?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 02:38 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

You don't call the ECB a bank?

You can tell any bondholder and any equity holder in the Cypriot banking system to "F-off" in favor of protecting depositors... as long as you are willing to live with the conseqences.

The EU is doing what they are doing for some very self-serving reasons.  And the key involves who actually owns those bonds that could go belly up any minute.

What might be more accurate is to say that the EU is only negotiating with Cyprus on the extent on which depositors get hurt-- because that's their condition for the next bailout.

The relevant discussion, however, is Cyprus deciding default or hurting its depositors at the expense of the ECB and EU banking system, as well as Cypriot sovereignity.  If Cyprus chooses the latter, there's no reason to believe that the EU won't go to that well again in the future.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 03:05 | Link to Comment chindit13
chindit13's picture

Sure, take the equity, and any bond that isn't already encumbered, but owing to the capital structure of the banks (liabilities are mostly deposits with little long term funding in the form of bonds), there is still a gaping hole, and Cyprus lacks the funds to fill it.  If no funds are forthcoming from the EU, every Cypriot bank is wiped out.  I am not arguing the ECB is positive in any way, and the mere publicly stated intent to take from depositors opens a can of worms, but Cyprus can say "No" to everyone and still the depositors lose.

I don't know where people have gotten the idea that there are sufficient bonds to fill the gap between asset value and deposit liability.  If I were to try to guess the intent behind the fact the EU didn't even bother to try to capture the bonds (those unencumbered), I would guess that it is a kind of message telling other large deposit holders in other EU banks that their funds will be safer as part of a bank's capital structure than as a mere deposit holder.  That is a wrong thing to do, but a desperate EU might actually try it.  In any event, even if they wipe out all the bondholders, the depositors are still looking at losses.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 05:25 | Link to Comment jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

what's the situation in the caymans, etc. look like?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 11:00 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

I would guess they have been a lot more careful on the asset side.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 10:41 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

A hot money bank doesn't need any other liabilities LOL.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 13:45 | Link to Comment Assetman
Assetman's picture

No doubt the depositors lose in every scenario... but the real choice from Cyprus is one of political sovereignity and restructuring its own banking system, not necessarily one of protecting depositors at all cost (though that SHOULD be the process in an orderly liquidation).  What the EU is essentially doing is issuing an ultimatum to a country that most knew would be would be in this position after Greek debt started going bad (well over a year ago).  In exchange for a temporary finanical lifeline, the EU is essentially wanting to cut in the front of the line in the liquidation process and essentially strip Cyprus of its tax haven status.  As with Greece, this would most likely NOT be a one-time deal.

If I'm a depositor and faced with the prospect that I'm going to lose my money anyway, I tell the EU to go pound sand and get to the back of the line.  Given the nature of its assets, the Cypriot banks really have no business being in business and will need to go into receivership, much like what was done in Iceland.  This really should have been done more than a year ago... and the EU knows this.

As for Iceland, I generally agree with most of your points though what I will say is that the goverment generally took the right steps in liquidating its bad banks.  You can certainly make the point that foreign depositors were on the short end of the stick, but both foreign and domestic investors in the capital strcture were totally wiped out.  The 'fault' of the Icelandic government was protecting domestic depositors in favor of foreign depositors -- a logical political move, a bad foreign policy gaffe, though.

One lesson to be learned: if you are a Brit and your deposits are under the jurisdiction of a foreign central bank, you better know more about the structure of that banking system before you invest.  Icelanic banks at the time were offering 10%+ in interest because the Icelandic Central Bank's going funds rate was in the double digits, as they were also fighting double digit inflation.  Unfortunately, Iceland's banking system was about 5 times the size of the rest of Iceland's GDP and very highly levered... how a British pension fund can overlook those risk factors is well beyond most realms of rational thought..

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 20:22 | Link to Comment theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

there are no unencumbered bonds.

Cyprus nationalises these banks, defaults on their foreign liabilities, prints a new currency, and honours their government guarantee to depositors up the the E100,000 in pristine notes.

They then spend 2 or 3 years out in the cold with a totally devalued currency while it finds a new level against the fragile Euro.

If the Cypriot government do a deal behind the people's backs, they'll never make it stick.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 07:51 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

Icelanders just behaved the 'american' way. From an 'american' perspective, their behaviour might be noble.
Icelanders added one feature though: usually, 'americans' enjoy this type of behaviour at the expense of the usual suspects. And this time, Icelanders performed the trick at the expense of well-groomed 'americans', most of indo-european descent. It signaled that, following the shortage of Indians to steal off, the only way to keep up the necessary 'american' stealth spree, the only solution isfor 'americans' than to steal other 'americans'.

In addition, one must remind that icelanders prepared their evac. During their wild 'american' speculative run, they also emitted tons of krona to be converted in dollars, euros and some others and deposited on foreign accounts. When the crisis unfolded, they tapped in those accounts to pay back some of the debt holders in their own money.

Nothing the Icelanders did was new actually. But what was new is that the other 'americans' were forced to eat the bullet. 'Americans' had no other options. Usually, when a country tried that on 'americans', that country is literrally destroyed in retaliation as the 'american' world organization join up to wipe the floor with the offender.
But this time, 'americans' were left totally powerless. They could not go after 'americans' located in Iceland.

A very promising situation as what hangs in the future.

The 'american' dream running off since 1776, July, 4th, is revealing itself more and more for what it is.

The future will be 'american'.

Hedge accordingly.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 10:09 | Link to Comment Straw Dog
Straw Dog's picture

"Iceland drew in foreign deposits by promising above market rates"

If Scottish Widows and orphans accept the offer of "above market rates" then they must accept the inherent risks. The subsequent losses are not the fault of Iceland - caveat emptor. And yes I do have sympathy for Scottish Widows and Orphans.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 14:09 | Link to Comment Poofter Priest
Poofter Priest's picture

'Icelander's did not draw in anything.

Their private banking geeks did.

And now the geeks are getting sentencing as it should be.

That is the noble thing Icelanders are doing now.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:32 | Link to Comment machineh
machineh's picture

2013: War of the Euro Jetsam.

'My kingdom for an ELA!'

Only OMT (Outright Moonbat Theatrics) can save us now, comrades!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:36 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Live and Let Die Opening Title Sequence HD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sn8alMYSu44 (2:48)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:39 | Link to Comment The Heart
The Heart's picture

The way these folks report this story is more close to truth, than the spittle of the lamest stream media in the world...and American free press where you have the right to free speech...as long as the censors and interceptors allow it.

"Within a week, Cyprus has gone from a banking haven to a credit prison."

Yeah, that should make for good advertising for the banks: Come on down and join the Credit Prison! Yayyyyyyyy! Hurry hurry now.

Moar:

"So far the German gamble has depended on Cyprus being scared into doing what it is told because it thinks it could be forced out of the euro, meaning economic annihilation."

Scared? Wow, this sounds like terrorism to the average reader who knows that according to the US govt, there is a war on terror and it is terrorism to even jaywalk across the street, so how is it these things can get away with this kind of terrorization of the people of Cyprus? Who profits?

Merkel flirts with euro ruin:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/9950089/Merkel-flirts-with-euro-ruin....

 

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment tom a taxpayer
tom a taxpayer's picture

The Rubicon flows through Cyprus. The ECB and Troika have now crossed the Rubicon.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:46 | Link to Comment Eally Ucked
Eally Ucked's picture

What a total bullshit! There is no growth at all exept financial assets valuation. They can dream that in Western world that imginative valuation will hold.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:47 | Link to Comment valkir
valkir's picture

I think it is time to introduce you my new avatar,bitchez.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:49 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

the con has been outed. if cyprus defaults the end comes fast. if cyprus goes ahead with some sort of theft of deposits then the russian mafia will exert it's diplomatic skills and the con last a while longer in a really messy ending compared to plain chaos. it is a real lose, lose win, win situation. the can finally gets kicked into the wall at the end of the dead end street so the reset can begin. that is the win. millions of people will likely die of starvation or lead poisoning. that is the lose.

japan is looking more prescient every day. they are ready to front run the collapse by trying to keep their looming chaos in order. europe will explode. the usa will take some antidepressants and shoot their neighbors and anyone else in their sight. china and russia emerge as the winners congratulating themselves for a job well done..

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:50 | Link to Comment stant
stant's picture

cant unring a bell, solong western civilization

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:19 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Paging General Yodl, General Yodl. Red courtesy phone.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Balvan
Balvan's picture

In order to widen the horizons you people have to read more than Zerohedge. According to them system is about to collapse any minute. Has anyone read 7dif?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:15 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Sure we watch other media outlets. That’s why we come here to share the important things. For your sake, let’s take assclown Crammer for example. This is your confident ZH link massage..

Cramer: Bernanke Understands This History, Do You? 

Booyah bitch. Do you feel better now?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 21:09 | Link to Comment formadesika3
formadesika3's picture

I've been hearing about this Cramer fucker for a long time. Now I see what all the fuss is about.

I call bullshit on his ass. It's clear he got all his best ideas from PeeWee's Playhouse.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 19:53 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    What are Cyprus' greatest atributes?  Tax heaven, and new found energy reserves. Assuming Cyprus leaves the EU and is able to secure/colateralize it's mid-term future from inflation, (long term inflation will kill everyone) they can do pretty well.

    Cyprus is prized for being a tax haven. Why destroy that heritage? (there will always be tax havens) If Cyprus plays it's cards right, and shows solidarity for 'depositors', I suspect Cyprus will be richly rewarded after they are expelled from the EU.

     Watch Closely.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:27 | Link to Comment besnook
besnook's picture

cyprus has an interesting choice. they can be whacked by russians or whacked by germans. gasprom just signed a deal with the israelis to buy gas from the gas field israel claims to own(but doesn't?). gasprom would not need israel if they had cyprus. the eurozone needs cyprus to hedge russian gas they are dependent upon. cyprus is really in a position of strength but both sides are willing to end human lives to get their way, the weakest link.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:42 | Link to Comment Grimbert
Grimbert's picture

Remember Cyprus is half occupied by Turkey and there is land that the British never gave up in 1960. The Turks dispute Cyprus digging up the sea, and no-one wants a fight so it'll be status quo foreign soldiers on a jolly , no-one on either side threatening anyone else. Nothing will happen.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 08:25 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

It will be a decade minimum before they can export gas from their find there...that and their already stellar fiscal record make a tough sell.

I think DIP financing from Putin or China is more likely.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:00 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Tyler,

 

How many days or weeks will it take for all CB’s inflow sequestration to disrupt? WB7, get your visual ready! :)

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:01 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

I found if i replaced various key words in this paper with the word "sex" it was far easier to understand. Quite enjoyable actually. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-mUCLHzWiJo&feature=endscreen&NR=1

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:10 | Link to Comment yogibear
yogibear's picture

Time to default and make the banksters eat their turd sandwiches!!!

Iceland defaulted and look how quickly they recovered. 

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:09 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

What the EU and ECB is Really Scared of - is that Cyprus leaves the EU and is Better Off for doing so than those countries that caved into austerity.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 04:37 | Link to Comment flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Indeed, and if Cyprus leaves the Euro and introduces RUB (rubles), they will scare the shit out of the Eurocrats. Cyprus should build upon strenghts and intoduce a gold bank as safe-haven for the Oligarchs to covert rubles into gold. Gazprom should take over the oil and gas exploration. Daily Aeroflot flights from Moscow to Cyprus to allow "tourists" to convert their fiat into assets. Fixed!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:12 | Link to Comment JR
JR's picture

The end of the Eurozone has started ticking.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:20 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     J.R. you have posted several fantastic pieces today. It wouldn't do you justice to analyze them in real time. Thanks for your tenacious insights, and rest assured they are read.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:12 | Link to Comment They Tried to S...
They Tried to Steal My Gold's picture

The only tool that the ECB EU and IMF have is FEAR.

 

Dont be a tool Cyprus go ICELAND on these mother furckers ! 

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:03 | Link to Comment RebelDevil
RebelDevil's picture

The real issue at hand here is how does one "go ICELAND on these mother fuckers!" without crashing the Euro and the entire world economy?

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:17 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

The capital control that Cyprus 'should' put in place is to let people take their money out next week with a 50% haircut on any withdraw over 10,000 Euros. Or Cyprus will let you withdraw 100% if you keep it in their banks for one year.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:37 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Apparently, your opinions don’t coincide with  No Taxation Without Representation’.

Just try to bring your washed up beliefs to the United States of America. Tell your rhetoric to a taxpayer, your chances of living are 50%.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 21:43 | Link to Comment Matt
Matt's picture

I don't think you understand how fractional reserve banking works.

I bet the money is not there.

I bet if everything were sunshine and rainbows, under the best circumstances, the bank would only have 2 percent of the deposits in actual cash, and only another 8 percent in purely electronic deposits. The other 90 percent is tied up in assets.

Now, since these are not sunshine and rainbow times, there is a good chance that their assets are worth less than their liabilities. That is to say, they lost a good chunk of the depositors money.

There is no 50%, and there is no way to get to 100% in a year. No matter what, somebody loses money. By default, the loser is the depositors.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:07 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

They be broke.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:25 | Link to Comment Rustysilver
Rustysilver's picture

The ongoing crisis in Europe and Cyprus dictates that spring and summer are postponed until 2016.

Signed

ECB and IMF

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:44 | Link to Comment CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

Does Dave Matthews know about this? He booked shows for April and May of this year. No joke

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:29 | Link to Comment epi_tis_thalassis
epi_tis_thalassis's picture

It seems Cyprus is actually pushed to the exit. All day negotiations just ended in what seems as an impass amid constantly changing requests from the troika.

http://www.24h.com.cy/epikairotira/22725-lepto-pros-lepto-oi-exelixeis.html (in greek)

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 01:21 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      Free for all.  I fucked up/

 To the A-Hole that junked me because I like J.R. ( Go £ / € )    I was being facitious, using currency symbols. (go /pound sand)

 

    For fucks sake/  gbp/usd has major resistence at 1.5267.  I'm short the pound sterling/     The APPL loing hedge funds are trying to chase the sterling. I'm laughing my ass off, It's hedged you idiots!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:36 | Link to Comment Cabreado
Cabreado's picture

What is good...

false leadership is being exposed... everywhere...

a reason to celebrate, but the party's gonna suck.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:39 | Link to Comment Debeachesand Je...
Debeachesand Jerseyshores's picture

Let's see,the EU-IMF and the ECB are a bunch of unelected dickheads who are telling the duly elected government of Cyprus to commit financial suicide.

The Government of Cyprus should tell those unelected basterds too shove their EURO etc up their unelected ASSHOLES.

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:45 | Link to Comment jonjon831983
jonjon831983's picture

Sooo you're saying invest in: "EU emergency plan drawn up as banknote company prepares for return of drachma (replace with Cypriot pound)" 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/320965/EU-emergency-plan-drawn-up-as-ba...

 

Bank Note printers:

De La Roue (http://www.delarue.com/ProductsSolutions/BanknoteProduction/)

Fortress Paper (http://www.fortresspaper.com/company/bankers-and-security-papers)

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 20:46 | Link to Comment q99x2
q99x2's picture

Don't you like automatically get ejected if the amount that you owe is more than you can ever pay back.

Now if the banksters control the US politicians and the NSA have all the conversations, emails basically all the communications between the banksters and the politicians then we now have two groups that control the US politicians. Then you have all the other agencies that have the supporting evidence of their crimes of treason.

Bad time to be a politician or bankster.

What we've had so far I like to refer to as Hillary lite.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 22:52 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 When a security is purchased, it's priced at 'fair market'. (discounted for future value)

  When markets for said securities are manipulated (priced to perfection via Fed.85mm <per month<injections), It "as John Wayne says".  Really Chaps My Hide...

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:44 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Chafes my hide ? Next time use your Chafestick and wear your "chaps" (leather leg coverings "chaparreras" for horseback riding in the chaparral .... thorny thickets and scrub oak vegetation) !    Example:  Los Charros chaparros se ponen sus chaparreras para montar caballo en los chaparrales !  Short Mexican cowboys wear chaps when riding horseback through the chapparal ! Chaparro is a short person or short "scrub" oak ! If you were from Texas .... you would know this already !

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:49 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I'm not sure what my IQ is Modenas.  'Have fun "deciphering" this.'

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:07 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

OK, you win, it's even in my Webster's New World Dictionary .... chap: cracked, roughened, split skin caused by exposure to cold !

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:15 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

  "TOO COLD" , Just like a 100 shot of nitrus?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:27 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

100 cc of liquid nitrogen ? Nitrous oxide anesthetic ?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:33 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    Monedas, lets be clear/  Death will come from natural causes. The primary(eu) players will be discredited within 48 hours.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 08:29 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

Angela Merkel, in the study, with the candlestick!

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 21:55 | Link to Comment thewayitis
thewayitis's picture

 

 

      They just voted on measures a little while ago which will seize portion of everyone’s savings .....from:

   Armstrongs blog at:    http://armstrongeconomics.com/armstrong_economics_blog/

 

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 22:07 | Link to Comment Pandorable
Pandorable's picture

When the government can take whatever it wants from the people...it's time to find John Galt.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 08:30 | Link to Comment GMadScientist
GMadScientist's picture

When the government can take whatever it wants from the people...it's time to be John Galt.

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 22:57 | Link to Comment YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

Let's see. Those that advocate Cyprus emulate Iceland deserve merit. This being zerohedge, resetting every debt to zero and hanging out the bankers/financiers to dry must have many proponents. It's been done before and the world still survived.

But let's not also kid ourselves. The cascade effect of multiple countries defaulting/devolving, triggering the CDS that in turn trigger the trillions of dollars in derivatives related to the risks will bring down the mentally incompetent finance houses that issued them, as well as incur massive losses for those that bought them when the counterparties collapse under the weight of their lies and bullshit. These aren't some shady gangsters working out of a social club. These are the biggest financial institutions in the US. The foundations of the Federal Reserve whose alumni are placed at the top echelons of several nations' central banks, if not most of the G8. 

Perhaps it is inevitable anyway, but when they collapse, the reserve currency will collapse with them and the ensuing panic will bring out such horrors of desperation from those who rely on the government to live, that you might even wish it never happened. Some of us who have made provisions for the worst might feel smug and may even want to see these freeloading bankers suffer, but it will be the ordinary person who entrusted everything to the government who will suffer the most. And if you have ever been hungry in your life,  you would never wish other people to experience the hopelessness of poverty.

So, yes. By all means cheer the downfall of others, demand justice for the crimes of theft committed by the bankers and the politicians who believe they are above the law. But save some compassion for those who were too stupid/trusting to see it coming. We are all going to be tested beyond endurance in the coming years, the hatemongers and extremists will demand our attention to put them in power, blame foreigners for the very acts we committed against them and ourselves, and even be forced to kill to protect our families from rampaging mobs. These things always happen during a breakdown,  and believe me, there is no romance in violence. Only blood, shit, piss and gore.

After awhile, people will go back to work, children will be schooled, and something else will replace the system that destroyed itself. If you can help build a better community by opposing greed, hate and violence every time they rear their ugly heads, we might be lucky enough to leave a lasting legacy for the future, and maybe, just maybe get to live in a world where money isn't worshipped, paranoia doesn't run rampant, partisanship isn't a bar sport, and selfishness isn't a virtue. 

 

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 05:36 | Link to Comment WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

Maybe, maybe not your professing is doom and gloom. Will it be worse than WW3 started by these same criminals? Maybe, Maybe not. The planet has been run like a twilight episode for too long. NO one can predict what will happen when its not. Just guesses,everything is a guess when discussing anything in the future.

Sometime they are right, but usually they are very very wrong.

We all know this ain't working and if it turns out as bad as they say, so be it.

My prediction is yes there will be mass suffering but the ones who will suffer the most are the ones who deserve to suffer the most. The ones at the top of that pyramid because they do not know how to be a human being. They have no marketable skills other than owning all they have procured with a CON job. That's why they are fighting so hard for its survival. Once they are stripped of their illegal wealth and power what will they have? The same as the people they stole it from. They do not want to live like us. Will there still be people with wealth? Of course, will they be in control who the fuck can say? Will we be stupid enough to let the current criminals do it to us all over again?More than likely after two Wwars  both sides still did not fight the real enemy. I am placing bets that the 3rd ww will be fought the same and the CON will still go on after its finished.

Poor people know how to help each other. The top only knows how to help themselves. Cypress is not stealing from the wealthy for socialism its stealing from everybody to feed the owners. If the owners know sovereigns cant pay why do they keep loaning? If banking was a legal business and the banks make you a loan you could not pay. WHY,WHY would you loan more?

I love it when these dumb fucks blame the countries and the people and call it socialism. Stealing from everyone especially the wealthy to keep other wealthy wealthy is NOT socialism its theft.

"The issue which has swept down the centuries and which will have to be fought sooner or later is the people versus the banks."
John Dalberg Lord Acton

It still has NOT been faught just delayed.

Let the crash come. Lets see what happens. If we all are still  here and ZH is still on line just think of the fights we will have then?

 

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 06:05 | Link to Comment YHC-FTSE
YHC-FTSE's picture

+1

Yep. Given a choice between collapsing the system or watching these fat fucks slowly start wwiii, I know which one we would all prefer. If it came to the latter, I doubt there would be anyone left whole. Call me a retarded busybody,  but I can't help worrying about Mrs.x, the elderly pensioner down the road, Mr.y, the friendly father of 3 who always has a kind word, and hundreds of millions of people like them who just aren't equipped to deal with the chaos of a breakdown. Like most things in life these days, the choices seem to range from worse to superlatives of bad. But yes. Let it come, it's way overdue.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 10:46 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Be careful what you ask for.....

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:10 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Disclaimer:  I am not qualified to opine one these matters .... so here we go !    Debt Mutualization:  We owe the money to ourselves ?        I went to a Taliban stoning .... and a Bitcoin discussion broke out !

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:37 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

   Monedas, stop with the stupid act/  It's apparent your welcome on Z/H.

 

Sat, 03/23/2013 - 23:58 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Yen, Baby, some of the technical stuff is over my head .... but I'm learning !  "Ya buya for one an' ya sella for two .... who needsa dis education !" .... Italian Immigrant cerca 1950 

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:04 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Have fun playing stupid Monedas. Think about your 'baby girl'? What would she want daddy to say?

  I know a diamond in the rough.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:13 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

I'm just killing time .... waiting for this whole mess .... to blow up in our faces .... meanwhile, it is nice to have some company !

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:23 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

       Your in 'RUT' Monedas. This mess is going to blow up.  I enjoy your company as well. 

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:31 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

Cheers ! This calls for a drink .... I have everything from Absinthe to Cane alcohol !

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:35 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 I'm Jealous.  8.5% beer and a few Cubans.  You win/

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:43 | Link to Comment Monedas
Monedas's picture

A recent houseguest .... who has to smoke weed .... to lower his inter-ocular pressure .... to inhibit retinal detachment .... left me a tuna can half full of roaches .... he buys it in Mendocino for $2,500 a pound .... this little treasure will last me .... several months .... and he left about 10 joints, too ?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 00:58 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

 Get some rest my friend/   I slept through the after>noon.  The  new cartoon is coming. Just around the corner>...

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 02:13 | Link to Comment Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

That's why I love Zerohedge. I was just about to hit my return key to activate my drone contract on both of you. Then you fucking kiss and make up. All kidding aside, nice discussion. Glad you worked thru it. Both of you have outstanding contributions to this community. 

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 04:57 | Link to Comment WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

I was wondering if they were going to get a room.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 09:52 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

I didn't need that visual....

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 10:30 | Link to Comment shovelhead
shovelhead's picture

$2,500 / lb.?

Ah, the beauty of a free market. Remove the govt. imposed risk premium and prices drop big time.

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 09:58 | Link to Comment hardcleareye
hardcleareye's picture

Let me see if I can sum this up,

Well it's not going to be that bad because it is bad to begin will, and this is because we are currently at the bottom of the "economic cycle " and it is just on the verge of getting better so it won't get much worse if this happens..

I just wasted five minutes of my life I will never have back reading this drivel....

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 10:45 | Link to Comment Gromit
Gromit's picture

Why not take the $10 Billion offered and then default?

Sun, 03/24/2013 - 20:24 | Link to Comment theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

I suspect the smartest guys in the ML room don't really want to look behind the curtain.

Multiply the numbers by 10, and you might be a little closer to the true prospects.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!