A week of closed banks, depositor angst, and economic malaise is creating an increasingly vicious circle for Cyprus (and implicitly the European Union). As Die Welt notes, because the economic data of the tiny 'irrelevant' island could be considerably worse than previously thought (or forecast by Troika) thanks to the distortions created this week by bank closings, several people around the Troika said the exact amount of the bailout remains uncertain and could amount to EUR2bn more than expected. With the Troika capping their handout at EUR10bn of the current EUR17bn needed (and the deposit levy reportedly filling EUR6bn of that EUR7bn hole), the need for a bigger bailout - which seems increasingly likely - will fall on Cyprus banks' depositors (or taxpayers) leading to a hard-to-beat downward spiral. Simply put, the more deposits are pulled, the more deposits need to be confiscated; and with retailer stocks running low ("will last another 2-3 days") and cash-on-delivery demanded, the real economy will "have a problem if this is not resolved by next week."
Retailers, facing cash-on-delivery demands from suppliers, warned stocks were running low. "At the moment, supplies will last another two or three days," said Adamos Hadijadamou, head of Cyprus's Association of Supermarkets. "We'll have a problem if this is not resolved by next week."
Cyprus needs a lot more money than expected
A few hours before the emergency meeting of the situation seems to capture from bankruptcy Cyprus to deteriorate: From Troika says that money could not exceed the estimated range.
Cyprus needs for information of the "world" more money to bail out its banks and the stabilization of its national budget. Not initially agreed 17 billion euros were enough states in the field of negotiations. The exact amount is not certain. Several people around the troika said the "world" that the increased demand would amount to around two billion euros.
Because the economic data of the island nation could be worse than previously thought, additional billions are needed. One reason for the expansion of the bailout, the distortions caused by the closing of the banks, which has been going on for a week. The financial institutions will not open until next week again.
The troika of EU, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) had agreed originally with Cyprus on a rescue package amounting to 17 billion euros. Ten billion would provide the troika, the remaining seven will apply even Cyprus.
Almost six billion would achieve the Cypriot government by the proposed compulsory levy on savings. More money to flush tax increases, such as the increase of the corporate tax in the state coffers.