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Keep A Close Eye On This FX Pair

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Wondering why the Euro is losing steam so quickly this morning after the Eurogroup 'saved' Cyprus? Perhaps this FX cross is the reason...

 

Perhaps this is why Italian and Spanish financials and bonds are weaker...

 

 

Chart: Bloomberg

 

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Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:29 | 3372081 Calidreaming
Calidreaming's picture

Bullish!

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:32 | 3372096 Capitalist
Capitalist's picture

In Soviet-deposit Cyprus, bank robs you!

(h/t ZH)

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:35 | 3372112 Stackers
Stackers's picture

Ivan, move all our money out of European banks today.

Da, comrade

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:48 | 3372154 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Locusts are a good omen, right?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:01 | 3372209 RichardENixon
RichardENixon's picture

Yes, but I wouldn't get too optimistic until millions of frogs start dropping from the sky.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 13:04 | 3372905 DutchR
DutchR's picture

Lots of protein of the none horse kind, que www.youtube.com/watch?v=NzlG28B-R8Y

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:48 | 3372159 Stackers
Stackers's picture

There goes 1.29 on the EURUSD ..... I thought things were fixed ?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:36 | 3372115 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

It's a perfect crime!

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:33 | 3372099 redpill
redpill's picture

If you were Russian, why would you put a penny of savings in the Euro or an EU country after this?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:38 | 3372117 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Russian? Why would any sane person put a penny of savings into any Eu country after they've shown that they won't hesitate to steal it.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:45 | 3372145 redpill
redpill's picture

Absolutely, but people are stupid and succumb to the normalcy bias. However if you are Russian and now have personal experience with it, it can shake people out of the fog.

In the long run, the EU has made it clear they will destroy anything and anyone to save their little Frankenstein economic experiment, which to any rational outside observer should make the Euro a toxic currency.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:51 | 3372156 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

"In the long run, the EU has made it clear they will destroy anything and anyone to save their little Frankenstein economic experiment,"

 

The funny thing is they have  at the same time shown they willl do anything they can to destroy it.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:57 | 3372171 redpill
redpill's picture

Like a deadly virus, in its efforts to propagate, success ultimately only brings the death of its host and its own demise with it.

If there ever were true noble intentions behind the European Union, they have long vanished and this supposedly sophisticated modern economic experiment has been transformed into nothing more than crude fascism.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 13:48 | 3373164 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Even if that implies destroying itself. What they're doing is tantamount to fueling the fireplace with the cabin walls - what could go wrong with that?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:57 | 3372192 gjp
gjp's picture

Why would anyone keep their savings in US dollars after Ben has shown he won't hesitate to dilute at an obscene and accelerating rate?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:01 | 3372208 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Agreed...maybe 5% of us are sane...the rest....well they keep believing the lie.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 12:29 | 3372703 Stock Tips Inve...
Stock Tips Investment's picture

Totally agree. The Europeans are acting with panic within this crisis. European authorities are becoming aware that their problems are too big. In the coming weeks and months the European crisis worsened.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 14:46 | 3373583 ImReady
ImReady's picture

I hear the State of IL has a bond offering this week. Generous yields! 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:46 | 3372149 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Because the Russians did something similar 15(?) years ago. Expropriation of foreign capital is neither new nor unique.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:55 | 3372497 defencev
defencev's picture

Is your "Tyler" is a total ifdiot or what? Ruble (by definition) is traded within narrow band with center linked to the basket US Dollar-Euro (in proportion 0.6:0.4).

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 12:34 | 3372736 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

How do you know whether this will continue?  What, you think regulatory definitions or even soveriegn law are impediments to CB's doing whatever the fuck they want at this point?  

 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:30 | 3372083 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's going to be mighty cold in Europe next winter. They better hope for some global warming.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:32 | 3372097 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

Oh please. Only the peasantry is going to suffer.  No one cares. 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:42 | 3372135 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

But as you know, global warming can mean colder. If you want research grants, any change in the climate must be attributable to unregulated economic activity.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:57 | 3372186 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Yes.  Let's worship at the god of global warming.

It might be colder, or it might be warmer.

There might be more tornadoes or fewer.

There might be more hurricanes or fewer.

it might rain more, or it might rain less.

Asteroids and meteors might hit the planet.

It's obviously ALL due to global fucking warming, right?  It causes anything and everything, right?  No, it's just another fucking scam to raise taxes and steal money.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:00 | 3372207 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Bingo!  AGW is a HOAX...

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:17 | 3372306 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

That may be true, but Al Gore invented the internet.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:46 | 3372150 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

i'm bullish on wood !

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:04 | 3372230 s2man
s2man's picture

Long Osage Orange and Oak.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:02 | 3372220 schatzi
schatzi's picture

I know it's a running gag and I'm a humourless cunt, but that simply is not going to happen. Anybody using their natural resources for political leverage will lose out on the market long term unless they have a monopolistic position. Tinfoil hat stuff.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:11 | 3372268 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Because it's never happened before.....do you remember the 70s?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:29 | 3372363 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Vaguely, wasn't even a teenager then, but I also remember vaguely we were at the height of the cold war, global markets were a novelty and OPEC lost its grip on the oil price as consumption sank and demand looked for alternate supply. Ultimately backfired.

In any event, those that think of OPEC, underestimate how closely tied the Russian economy is into Europe and how central money has become to the political elite. Europe is their largest market. You don't fuck with your largest market - unless you want to catapult your economy back 20 years for a few oligarch bank accounts on a shitty little island.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:52 | 3372482 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

There is always China and India. If you think Russia will not retaliate by any means at their disposal then you are delusional

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 12:43 | 3372792 schatzi
schatzi's picture

Ultimately time will tell. I firmly believe they will do nothing. We could set a point in time and make a bet. I'd buy you a virtual beer.

 

I also believe this place tends to attract a shitload of conspirationalists and doom dayers. Too many see the world ending sooner than later. Not saying it is sustainable, because we all know it isn't. But building a bunker, buying guns&ammo, cans of tuna and sterilised water and digging your silver into the garden is tin-foil hat league.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:29 | 3372085 Colombian Gringo
Colombian Gringo's picture

It seems that the Russians can fight back with more than just Kalashnikovs.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:30 | 3372086 monopoly
monopoly's picture

But, but, on the idiot channel they said everything was fixed. I, I don't understand.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:31 | 3372088 101 years and c...
101 years and counting's picture

just out of curiousity, how much oil and NG does Russia ship to Europe?  Which is in pipelines that can be shut down in a matter of minutes???

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:34 | 3372107 akarc
akarc's picture

They won't shut em down. Not when they can charge em up the yin yang.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:45 | 3372147 CrimsonAvenger
CrimsonAvenger's picture

Actually, Putin just made an energy deal with Xi, so Yin and Yang will be fine. Hans and Guido, on the other hand...

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:49 | 3372161 Manthong
Manthong's picture

Maybe they should stop accepting unreliable Euros from unethical Europeans in exchange for gas.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 12:13 | 3372609 Debugas
Debugas's picture

they will accept euros but immediately will sell those euros for gold

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:01 | 3372213 Boeing Boy
Boeing Boy's picture

38% gas to germany alone......................

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:31 | 3372090 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Bevare ze Russische bear trap...

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:32 | 3372092 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

WTF?  Oil's got major wood this morning...

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:35 | 3372108 Long-John-Silver
Long-John-Silver's picture

Germany will need a lot of wood next winter to replace all that Russian Natural Gas.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:51 | 3372169 Nothing To See Here
Nothing To See Here's picture

But by buying oil futures with electronic printed money, you can accumulate a bunch of paper claims on oil to use as combustible!

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 12:41 | 3372773 Panafrican Funk...
Panafrican Funktron Robot's picture

Think it through.

1.  USD gets most of it's strength from the "petrodollar" effect.

2.  Petro is getting ramped.

Pretty easy way to manipulate either the USD or /CL.  Works in either direction.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:34 | 3372105 Haus-Targaryen
Haus-Targaryen's picture

I am sure there was a comminque from the Kremlin to all the wealth in Russia -- If you have €€€ in European banks at the moment --- get them out. 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:36 | 3372114 akarc
akarc's picture

yepper, always consider blowback and unintended consequences 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:34 | 3372110 lotusblue
lotusblue's picture

Ok,so cyprus has pusshed Russian Oligarcs to sell Euros for rubbles.Hmmm, Dark day for EU when Russians feel thier money safer in rubles ! Quite telling

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:35 | 3372111 monopoly
monopoly's picture

It is just mind boggling to me that they sell gold and buy the dollar at this time. Just insanity. You believe in obama, reid, pelosi, boner and the bernank, you believe in the Euro? just beyond words.

Just goes to show that emotions override reality....often.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:39 | 3372126 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Just shows how much fucking money they have to pump the system and keep up the illusion of sound dollar and sound paper bullshit...

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:47 | 3372152 Racer
Racer's picture

and how much of that is stolen from people by bail out!

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:54 | 3372164 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

gold might be looking ahead and trying to figure out if real dollars seized from bank accounts across the globe is deflationary enough to offset the digital pixy dust BB is shooting to his banksta thug bro's.  Maybe gold sees real savings getting corzined, tripping capital control measures world wide and saying piece out niggas catch ya'll  after the crash.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:36 | 3372116 Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

In Mother Russia, ruble trade you!

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:42 | 3372131 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

i wouldn't, as a european, put my money in a russian bank right now ;-)

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:42 | 3372136 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Dow is now RED, WTF happened?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:56 | 3372163 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

S&P 1565 is proving to be a bitch...The Bernank needs to crank up the printers and push this pig over that hump.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:06 | 3372187 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Oil with a major boner.

Dow boner went completely limp and into the red.

Gold smack down.

Weird action all around.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:00 | 3372197 akarc
akarc's picture

Well Im sure this is just specualtion. But could it be the Russians were not the only ones stashing illegal gains in Cyprus?Could  one or two American dollars have gotten caught up in the mix? Where does it all go now? American banks that launder drug money?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:44 | 3372141 monopoly
monopoly's picture

I wouldn't as a European, put my money in a European bank right now. No way.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:47 | 3372148 Byte Me
Byte Me's picture

Mine was out of that theatre 30 months ago

(sorryish - couldn't resist)

edit - impressive daily candles building for EUR/USD and cable

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:48 | 3372155 Racer
Racer's picture

Take your money and run Russia

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:03 | 3372222 akarc
akarc's picture

They ain't running. They are attacking.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:51 | 3372168 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"The Russians are going! The Russians are going!"

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:51 | 3372170 Alex Lionson
Alex Lionson's picture

This is just wonderful! 

Luke.Baker @LukeReuters #Eurogroup's Dijsselbloem says #Cyprus deal is now a template for rest of euro zone. Uninsured depositors can be bailed-in if needed

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:53 | 3372173 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

just have ONE question : why don't i see any of those damn reporters in Cyprus ???? Jeez this island might be burning and nobody would even know about it !!!!!

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:00 | 3372205 clawsthatscratch
clawsthatscratch's picture

Just as in Greece, the government suppresses any real news; occasionally the newsies in Greece will even say, "we would tell you more but, we can't", LOL.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:54 | 3372176 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Reality starting to hit the markets.  When EU bureaucrats can steal your bank deposits, nothing is safe anymore.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:29 | 3372369 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

Hate to be the one to pop your rose colored bubble, but nothing was ever safe. The .gov can steal anything you own. And, with the NDAA in place they can now steal your soul and disappear you, leaving nary a trace.

Words on paper are just that. We now live in times where specific words on a specific piece of paper no longer hold the meaning they used to hold.

When people like Obama or the EU talk about the re-distribution of wealth, what they really mean is they want to redistribute your wealth to the state.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:33 | 3372383 Hulk
Hulk's picture

Ultimately, we are just dust in the wind anyway, so why worry about this shit at all ???

I say we all put a bullet in our own heads and find out whats next real fast !!!

-Ziggy Stardust

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 19:34 | 3374682 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Hmm, I notice that "Ziggy" is still "jamming good!"

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:54 | 3372178 gball
gball's picture

Isn't that what Germany wants though?  Downward pressure on the EUR?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 12:20 | 3372662 Bobportlandor
Bobportlandor's picture

May be, but watch as money starts to freez up as people look around and can't find shelter.

 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:54 | 3372179 goldbear1974
goldbear1974's picture

I just got the same strong sell signal in es that I got in October 2007.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 10:54 | 3372180 bonzo112358
bonzo112358's picture

Any big Euro bank depositor is calmly walking into whatever bank he/she has their money and quietly taking out as much as they can.  You don't get that kind of money by not keeping an eye on it.  Less money held by a bank means they will slowly become more levered.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:05 | 3372229 franzpick
franzpick's picture

Euro down 140 ticks in 3 hours...

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6E&p=h1

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 11:08 | 3372253 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

Cyprus is the new normal...

FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) -- The rescue program for Cyprus reached on Monday is a new template for addressing banking problems in the euro zone, said Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, the chair of the Eurogroup of euro-zone finance ministers, according to Reuters. "If there is a risk in a bank, our first question should be 'Okay, what are you in the bank going to do about that? What can you do to recapitalize yourself?' If the bank can't do it, then we'll talk to shareholders and the bondholders, we'll ask them to contribute in recapitalizing the bank, and if necessary the uninsured deposit holders," he said, according to the report.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 12:20 | 3372659 steve from virginia
steve from virginia's picture

 

 

I'm guessing here that Russia is going to stop accepting euros as payment for its fuels. Why not? Euros are only worth half today ... of what they were last week!

 

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2013/03/24/default-in-europe/

 

Dollars only, thank you!

 

BTW: Russia just signed a big crude + gas pipline deal with China:

 

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/russia-cuts-china-into-arctic-oil-rush-as-energy-giants-embrace.html

 

Russia don't need no steenkin' euros.

 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 13:51 | 3373184 besnook
besnook's picture

dollars only? why should they? rubles only!

russia and china are ridding themselves of dollars as fast as they get them. they want the petroyuarub.

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