This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.

Key Events And Issues In The Week Ahead

Tyler Durden's picture





 

Via Goldman and SocGen

While the news flow is dominated by Cyprus, it will be important to not lose sight of the developments in Italy, where we will watch the steps taken towards forming a government.

The key release this week is likely to be US consumer confidence. Keep a watchful eye on the health of the consumer in the US after the tax rises in January. So far, household optimism and demand has held up better than expected. The IP data from Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, Thailand, Japan will provide a useful gauge on activity in the region and what it reflects about global activity, however Chinese New Year effects will need to be accounted for in the process.

Monday 25 March

  • Singapore CPI (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: +4.1% yoy. Last: +3.6% yoy.
  • Taiwan Industrial Production (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus:-9.2% yoy. Last: +19.2% yoy.
  • Also of interest: Fed Chairman Bernanke, NY Fed President Dudley speak.

Tuesday 26 March

  • New Zealand Trade Balance (Feb): Bloomberg Consensus:-NZD12mn. Last: -NZD305mn.
  • Singapore Industrial Production (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: -7.0% yoy. Last: -0.4% yoy.
  • US Durable Goods Orders (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: 3.9%. Last: -4.9%.
  • US Consumer Confidence (Mar). Bloomberg Consensus: 67.5. Last: 69.6.
  • Also of interest: Philippines Trade Balance (Jan).

Wednesday 27 March

  • Korea Consumer Confidence Index (Mar). Last: 102.
  • Thailand Manufacturing Production Index (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: 3.0%. Last: 10.1.
  • Germany GKF Consumer confidence (Apr). Bloomberg Consensus: 5.9. Last: 5.9.
  • Sweden NIER Business and Consumer Survey (Mar). Bloomberg Consensus: 97.0. Previous 94.7.
  • Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator (Mar). Bloomberg Consensus: 1.04. Previous 1.03.
  • Euro area Harmonised CPI Mar (Flash): Bloomberg Consensus: Previous: +1.8%.
  • Euro area Consumer Confidence Mar (Final). Bloomberg Consensus: -23.5 Previous: -23.5 (Flash).
  • Canada CPI (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: +0.7%mom. Last: 0.1%mom.

Thursday 28 March

  • Korea Current Account (Feb). Last: USD2253.6mn.
  • China Industrial Profits Jan-Feb. Last: +5.3% yoy.
  • Taiwan Central Bank Policy Meeting. Bloomberg Consensus 1.875%. Last: 1.875%.
  • India Current Account Balance 4Q. Last: -US$22.3 bn.
  • UK GFK Consumer Confidence (Mar): Bloomberg Consensus: -27.0. Previous: -26.0.
  • Germany Unemployment (Change) (Mar). Bloomberg Consensus:-2k. Previous: -3k.
  • Italy Business Confidence (Mar). Bloomberg Consensus: 88.0. Previous: 88.5.
  • US GDP Q4 - third release. Bloomberg Consensus +0.5%qoqann.  Last:+0.1%qoqann.
  • US Chicago PMI (Mar). Bloomberg Consensus: 56.5. Last: 56.8.
  • Also of interest: Japanese retail trade (Mar), Australia Private sector credit, India fiscal deficit.

Friday 29 March

  • Japan CPI (Feb): Bloomberg Consensus: -0.7%yoy. Last: -0.3%yoy.
  • Japan Industrial production (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: 2.5%mom. Last: 0.3%mom.
  • Korea Industrial Production (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: -5.3% yoy. Last: +7.3% yoy.
  • Thailand Exports (Feb). Last: +15.6% yoy.
  • US Personal Income (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: +0.9%. Last: -3.6%.
  • US Personal Spending (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: +0.6%. Last: +0.2%.
  • US Core PCE Price Index (Feb). Bloomberg Consensus: +0.5%. Last: Flat.
  • US Reuters/U. Mich Consumer Sentiment—Final (Mar). Bloomberg Consensus: 72.7. Last: 71.8

TOP ISSUES FOR THE WEEK AHEAD

WAITING FOR A NEW ITALIAN GOVERNMENT

President Napolitano last week officially asked Mr Bersani to attempt to form a government following the fragmented election outcome on 24 and 25 February. It is no easy task and weekend press reports are not encouraging. We expect Mr Bersani to inform President Napolitano at the end of this week of whether he believes he can be successful. The best case is that some form of compromise can be reached that will allow Italy to move ahead with a minimalist reform programme, potentially including electoral reform (although electoral reform will not be easy as each party wants something different).

Should Bersani fail, which remains a very real possibility, President Napolitano is likely to put in pace a caretaker government until new elections can then be held (September seems the most likely timing). New elections, however, could very well see further fragmentation. Moreover, even if Bersani manages to form a government, the risk is that it will have a very short lifespan.

MARKET ISSUES: Italy on “policy auto-pilot” seems to be the base case currently discounted by markets. As also highlighted by our Fixed Income strategists, risks to this scenario are clearly biased to the downside.

NO US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN

The risk of a US government shutdown was taken off the table with both the House and the Senate approving legislation to fund the government to the end of the fiscal year (30 September). Negotiations over the FY14 budget continue and the next key date now is 18 May when the debt ceiling is reinstated.

MARKET ISSUES: Fiscal policy is likely to be off the market radar screens for now. As the debt ceiling approaches, lots of headlines can be expected but we see the risk of the US going to a technical default as very low.

CROSS ATLANTIC DIVIDE TO CONTINUE

Our US data guru Brian Jones has a number of above-consensus calls in what promises to be another week in the sweet spot for the US. Full details of previews can be found in our Week Ahead Calendar, but highlights include February durable goods orders at +6.0 mom, January Case-Shiller home prices at 1.29% mom and Q4 GDP at +0.7%. March sentiment surveys are expected to ease lower, but remain firmly in expansion territory. Consumer confidence is the one negative where we look for a drop to 63.5 in the Conference Board reading.

Turning to the euro area, the disappointing PMI readings last week should be echoed in the EU Commission’s March Economic Sentiment Index. February M3 data, moreover, are expected to show still weak bank lending data. The next bank lending survey on 24 April will further insight on credit supply conditions. Not all is gloom and doom, however, as we expect French households to have increased spending by 0.3% mom in February, after a slump of -0.8% in January.

MARKET ISSUES: Although the FOMC statement and press conference offered some further input on when asset purchases will stop, clarifying the condition of “significant improvement in the outlook for the labour market”, overall guidance remains vague. For now, the US is in the sweet spot. Hope is that US recovery will suffice to pull the euro area out of the doldrums. In our opinion, much more is  required and we expect the cross Atlantic gap to remain wide in 2013.

MIXED DATA FROM ASIA

Some better data out of Japan, and notably better industrial production (we look for +4.0% mom in
February) should help underpin hopes that the Japanese economy is finally bottoming out. Looking over to Korea, however, we expect to see further confirmation of a soft patch in both the February industrial production data and the March sentiment indicators.

MARKET ISSUES: Our forecasts suggest that the recent picture of mixed data from Asia will continue this week. Overall, however, the picture remains one of recovery albeit modest.

 


- advertisements -

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Mon, 03/25/2013 - 08:30 | Link to Comment AnAnonymous
AnAnonymous's picture

The world is collapsing.

Publicize it, make money out of it.

Signed: an American.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 08:40 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

The precedent that was just set that sez they can steal money from your bank account at anytime would seem to be a pretty big event.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 08:44 | Link to Comment TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

Yes, but....nah.  Go back to sleep.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 09:21 | Link to Comment King_Julian
King_Julian's picture

An, When you are permitted to leave your cubicle in Beijing, look around. Things are indeed not well. The average American doesn't understand why. Hell they aren't even aware there is a collapse going on. After seeing your fellow "citizen-isms" in your smog enshrouded capital, they don't seem so happy either. Although you might say otherwise, most Chinese or Americans can't afford the Audis or Ferraris you guys love so much. There is no profit in depression for 99.9% of the population. You are barking up the wrong tree here. Hey, but I guess you need to show something to the bosses. Got it!

Signed,
An American

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 08:34 | Link to Comment The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

BTFD....

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 08:36 | Link to Comment Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

italy still hasn't a government ???? what's taking them so long ? i mean what are they talking about in those endless meetings and discussions ? sounds so much like EU meetings on Greece, Spain or Cyprus ! 

Can someone explain what the hell they are talking about ? 

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 08:45 | Link to Comment ChanceIs
ChanceIs's picture

Are Max Keiser and Stacy Herbert in GITMO?  Their site has been down for more than 12 hours, and was down for an extended period a few days before that.

I think that it was the characterization of Jamie Dimon as a tapeworm which pushed it over the top.  God bless them both.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 08:46 | Link to Comment NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

Don't leave out the bank runs in the EU this week. Most people smart enough to have saved more than 100,000 Euros are smart enough to take it out before it gets taken from them. I would especially watch Spain.

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 09:29 | Link to Comment Never One Roach
Never One Roach's picture

I am worried about "the consumer." Telltale signs of woe are showing as retailers discount 'stuff' 60-90% to get it moving. Even Ebay is offering all sorts of deals to get buyers and sellers moving in this sluggish market.

I wonder what effect Cyprus will actually have on 'consumers' here and abroad?

Mon, 03/25/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

Banker= Someone else pays for your bad decisions

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!