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Visualizing The 'All-In' Hope That QE3 Will Save The US Economy
Presented with little comment but to note the somewhat exponential exuberance in US cyclical stocks (relative to defensives) that has gradually accelerated since the Fed launched QE3. If ever there was a chart of 'hope' or 'faith', this is it.
Chart: Credit Suisse
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The unstoppable glorious Hindenberg is lifting off.
Oh, the huge manatee!
What iscyclical to defensive ratio?
It's the Lusitania.
You mean it was secretly carrying munitions like the Germans had claimed all along?...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1098904/Secret-Lusitania-Arms-challenges-Allied-claims-solely-passenger-ship.html
[brings a whole new meaning to guns 'n (in?) butter...]
Divide 10 by 3. You get 3.3333333etc.
Now multiply that by 3: you get 9.9999999etc.
Proof that 10 = 9.999999etc.
On a long enough timeline the difference drops to zero...
Holy shit, that just blew my mind. Is that missing 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000 . . . . . . . 1 what the algos are skimming every 0.0000000000000000000000000000 . . . . . . . . .1 seconds.
It all adds up now.
Another metric which probably means exactly jack shit in the glorious era of Big Ben printing $85 billion a month out his ass. The Europeons need to have more faith that Ben can save the day.
Exactly, if you trade against this you are killed.
+1 Everytime I tried to play the fundamentals in this market by shorting it I have been gang raped by Benny and the boys. The only shorts I place now are on PM's. I take the profits and buy the physical. If it's not in your hands, you don't own it. Remember that.
Ownership of cyclical stocks to defensive stocks, aka how doped up we are on Bernanke bucks.
Lift off. We have lift off of the US Space Ship QE3, Ponzinomics last great tribute to Too Big Too Fail.
Doing God's work....
Rockets continue to climb for a short while after they explode too. Eventually, they end up in the ocean.
Hopefully this stock bubble compensates for what the beleaguered consumers now face in awe:
Moar toll roads, higher property taxes, higher school "security" taxes, the new internet sales tax, higher postal rates, higher gas prices, and on and on.
BTW, I'm surprised no one has asked me how my New Life is going with my recently acquired Japanese Love Doll, Miko:
http://loneleeplanet.com/2009/03/japanese-love-dolls-taboo/
It's no wonder these Japanese exports are holding their economy afloat. I wonder what percentage of sales of these goes to the PRC?
The ride down the other side should be thrilling ..........
Remember to jump at the last second. I hear you can survive if you do that.
Express elevator to hell...
+1 nice analogy. Reckon most people here would rather take the golden emergency stairs.
Michael Jackson - Thriller
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOnqjkJTMaA (13:43)
I'm investing in Attends because it's going to scare the sh&t out of me.
I am to young to know, but I thought the were called Depends.
It depends on where you buy them.
PS: I was in a Costco yesterday, and I swear they had a third of an entire aisle devoted to these adult diapers. Who ARE all these people who are apparently continually shitting their pants? (Now, if I were shopping at the Washington DC or Brussels or Nicosia Costcos, I could understand it ...)
And you will have full control of your bowels when Bernanke looks right into the camera and says, "We are f&cked"?
As always!
Besides, I don't need B.S. Bernanke's official pronouncement to tell me that.
PS: Appropriate handle, given the discussion.
Okay, you are in your backyard barbecuing when several drones buzz you. You run inside and look out your front window. There are dozens of DHS tanks rolling around and about 50 'roidgoons who speak no english getting ready to kick your door in. You will be cool as a cucumber, right?
I will invite them in for tea.
You have passed the test, Grasshopper. Well done!
This has gotta be the zaniest repartee I've ever seen on this site, and that's really saying something! :>D
Akak, tks for another good laugh.
It is Kimberly-Clark you seek. Yes, they also make toilet paper. We have been all in for years and it's a feeling of security that money can't buy.
Actually Kimberly-Clark hasn't made anything in years. They sold off all of their paper mills several years ago and just contract out to those mills what they want produced. Seems that they took the attitude that the only thing that they needed to make was money.
The dividend checks keep coming so we ask no questions.
All those stupid Krugmanites and Obamabots praising Bernanke for his ``glorious saving`` of their 401k will have a nasty surprise when reality hits.
"We need your 401k to keep moving foward but don't worry! We will instead send you a check every month. Until we don't".
Watch this video as Rothschild expresses his concern for the pensioners (401k holders) in late 2008
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUyfCI5WVtU
And for all the rest, artificially suppressed and undervalued gold could be finally recognized as by far the best investment ever. Once it bursts one will be barely able to afford more than few ounces.
As God is my witness , I thought turkeys could fly .
Baby if you ever wondered - wondered whatever became of me...
Turkeys can fly, and some day in the not too distant future, shit will fly too.
Okay, just buzz the house once, and we should win that bet.
Bill D. Cat, I can still remember how much that made laugh the first time I saw it. About a year ago was flipping through the channels and landed on the channel showing that episode and ended up laughing so hard it hurt. Thanks for the laugh..
The sharks are just waiting until enough retail 401K, IRA, and Pension money comes back in the water before the next bloodbath.
Ben gave them all the FED gravy (taxpayer flesh) necessary to ramp things up on low volume rotating in and out of sectors and names within sectors.
Just when the average retiree and retail investor think it's safe to go back in the water the next feeding frenzy will commence.
Welcome To East Liberty - The Hotel Never-Go
http://chartistfriendfrompittsburgh.blogspot.com/2013/03/welcome-to-east...
As a resident of the Pittsburgh area and a frequent frequenter of East Liberty, I think this is a horrid idea.
But, this being Pittsburgh, and Pittsburgh being in the FSofA, I am not surprised at all.
Well it makes sense - the stock market has never declined during massive QE...
*cough*
"We've never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis."
I love to turn promissory notes to pay nothing into gold, ya know the FRN,,,these idiots are so fucked that they think I would save FRN'S in the form of stocks,,,IRA'S 401 KFUCKS.... And I do it with bank of America's line of credit, fucking extreme irony.... QE ME..
the kill switch
No bubble here.
American Exceptionalism
American EXPRESSionalism...........
RAMMING SPEED!!!!!!!!!!
There will be blood!
it isn't in the thread yet so....
FUCK YOU BERNANKE!!!!!!!!!!!
Hey, hey, hey. I was going to say that.
Here's hoping that whoever is on the top of this curve is wearing a helmet cam...you know, so we can look back and see what happened.
Say what you want about them, but CS guys do the best charts.
That baby is going to burn so bright, just thinking about it makes my eyes water. Then, phut! All gone until QE whateverthefuckthenumberisnow.
You have to know Big Ben's motto. When he talked to one U.S. Senator during testimony before the Senate, Bernanke said, "Don't forget Senator we want to make a profit."And trust me,because the Government is allowed to intervene and trade at will in any market means that they can make money going down,not just up.I wouldn't put it past a bunch of gangsters.These guys in Washington are no different than the Russians for being crooks.
C'mon, there's no reason to disparage Russians.
The history books will read:
"It worked until it didn't. What seemed like ingenious policy and a near miracle combined with the resiliency of the American people turned out to be just another debt bubble.
The rule-of-law was replaced with expediency, and sound money relegated as a relic of the past. As with crises from history, prudence and common sense were abandoned for the sake of a crisis, then more-so for the next crisis, and so on.
The brightest minds of the time denied the immorality and recklessness of their actions, stating that they must act - even if it meant stealing depositor money - to prevent a 'collapse'; thus ensuring an even more spectacular collapse with each equivocation, lie, and self-lie.
With each micro-managed crisis the reassurances became louder as the lies became larger; until there was no faith left in the leaders and institutions of the nation and chaos had it's hour.
As history teaches, hubris or pride is ever the downfall of the great."
You've summed it up beautifully. Now, just inscribe it on a stone tablet, cause pixels won't stand the test of time.
I don't see a head and shoulders formation but I do see a bent penis.
As long as the money flows to pay off politicians countries will not stop massive demonstrations against Gay marriage. But once the banksters don't have money to bribe the politicians of the world its back to the real issues like jailing banksters and traitors.
You have to admit. I DOES make one sick .....
"Exponential", isn't that another word for "irrational"?
Change you can believe in./sarc
Bernanke will burn in Hell for eternity for taking a house with termite eaten foundations and putting a new coat of paint on it, new wallpaper, and getting the inspectors to lie about it's condition, then selling it to the American taxpayer.
sorry no hell to burn in
though he may fill a position in the slime pits of calcutta which by inference is not a walk in park
Why do you say no hell?
Because hell is a childish human construct invented by man, to subdue and control man.
Once you're dead and have no body, no nervous system, no brain, no eyes, no ears, no sense of touch, no sense of smell or taste HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU BURN IN HELL, IT DOESN"T MAKE ANY FUCKING SENSE. THERE'S NOTHING LEFT TO BURN. THE FUCKING CREMATORIUM ALREADY DID THAT. YOU'RE GONE, FOREVER, NEVER TO EXPERIENCE CONSCIOUSNESS AGAIN. IMAGINE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR GREEN HOUSE GASES AND GLOBAL WARMING IF HELL REALLY DID EXIST
If you have no brain with which to sense your place in time and space then if you continue to live once you're actually dead HOW THE FUCK DO YOU KNOW WHERE YOU ARE OR HOW BIG YOU ARE. IF YOU THINK YOU CAN GET DISORIENTATED ON THE ZIPPER or SPACE MOUNTAIN, IMAGINE BEING CONSCIOUS WITHOUT A BODY, YOU COULD BE AS BIG AS THE UNIVERSE ONE SECOND OR AS SMALL AS AN ATOM THE NEXT.
There is no god <beating head against the wall>, there is no devil <stamping feet in exhausted temper tantrum>, it's all a construct of our minds.
Now that we've finally dispensed with that silly notion of gods and devils, FOREVER, NEVER TO BE SPOKEN OF AGAIN, let's get back on topic.
FUCK YOU BERNANKE.
Since I have abandoned any hope of seeing justice in this world, you are cruel to crush the last bit of faith of an old woman.
graham summer ..... i do not believe we will see q3
q3 graham summers is a dope
paint the debt..
with a nice shade
of asset valued
epoxy enamel
Sustainability is one of those concepts (such as the exponential function) that economists regard as 'voodoo science'.
According to Wells Fargo Securities:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/132384016/Fed-Put-May-Diminish-in-H2-2013-Wells-Fargo-Securities
H2 2013 - Time To Fade The Fed?
Fed Put May Diminish In H2
• As confirmed by the FOMC last week, the uncertain impact of fiscal policy in the U.S. and ongoing turmoil in Europe are together likely to keep the Fed in the game for the near term. However, as the calendar turns to the second half, we suspect stocks may start to sniff out the beginnings of a balance sheet unwind and rate tightening in 2014. Beware H2, as the Fed put may start to fade, resulting in a rocky climate for U.S. stocks. On average, stocks have lost 8% in the six months prior to the first Fed tightening, and posted a 12.9% decline prior to tightening when earnings growth was weak, as today. Portfolio positioning should favor defensives over commodity-sensitives and cyclicals as tightening nears.
• In the very short run, we expect the combination of fiscal policy constraints and renewed turmoil in Europe will result in another growth scare, keeping the Fed firmly supportive. However, by suggesting the Fed may alter purchase patterns in his comments after the meeting last week, Chairman Bernanke cracked open the door of monetary policy uncertainty. Moving into the second half of this year, continuous improvement in the unemployment rate and slow growth may be enough to get markets thinking about a shift in Fed policy in 2014.
• Stocks usually sniff out the coming change to Fed policy before the policy change occurs, and the initial reaction is negative. Indeed, the bulk of market weakness surrounding Fed policy changes in the pre-QE period occurred in the six months prior to the first target rate change. The average decline in the six months preceding tightening was 8.0%. Recently, stocks have suffered more when Fed bond buying programs ended, with stocks recording an average sell-off of 14.4%.
• Timing of Fed tightening could be particularly difficult for stocks to absorb this cycle because earnings growth is in a weak state at this time. Indeed, recent S&P 500 EPS growth is just 6.6% YoY. Similarly, EPS growth was -3.1% YoY when the Fed started tightening in the late 1980s and merely 3.2% YoY when the Fed started tightening in the late 1990s. Perhaps due in part to the weak earnings environment, stocks suffered more than usual during these two tightening phases. The peak to trough decline surrounding the late 1980s tightening was 33.5% and the peak to trough decline surrounding the late 1990s tightening was 19.1%.
• With this backdrop in mind, we continue to suggest defensive positioning remains the best alternative for portfolios benchmarked to the S&P 500. Should the Fed indeed approach tightening in 2014, we suspect the dollar will continue to rally, weighing on the relative performance of commodity sensitive segments of the index, and rising rates should affect cyclicals more than defensives. Sector performance has tended to follow a generally consistent pattern during tightening, and this pattern supports our view that commodity sensitive and cyclical sectors are at risk. Indeed, in the six months prior to the late 1980s tightening tech and energy suffered most, while in the mid-1990s tightening tech and materials led declines. In the late 1990s cycle tech and materials again recorded the largest declines. Finally, energy and industrials led declines prior to the 2004 tightening phase.
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Now that's funny!