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Another Dow All-Time High But Bonds/Credit/Banks Ain't Buying It

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Wealth levies and a European banking system collapsing; dismal capital goods new orders; a miss for new home sales and Richmond Fed; almost the lowest volume of the year in stocks, and Treasury bonds trading at their lowest yield since the Cyprus debacle started - a perfect recipe to try a run to all-time closing highs in the S&P 500. The previous high close (not intraday) was 1565.17 on 10/09/07 and we missed it by less than 2 points today. What has taken us to these new post-Cyprus highs, safety - Staples, Healthcare, and Utilities (up 1-3% since 3/15 Cyprus). Banks remain battered with C, GS, and MS all down 5-6%. Treasuries and corporate bonds reflected a considerably different perspective on risk-appetite to stocks today. While the USD largely flatlined, with JPY weakening, EURJPY (and WTI it seems) led stocks higher on dismal volume. Gold, silver, and copper flatlined (following the USD's lead) but the disconnect between VIX/Stocks and Bonds/Credit was extreme by the close. VIX remains 1.5 vols higher than it was when stocks were last here and the protection bid in credit markets (and low volume in stocks) suggests equity algos simply forgot that Europe opens again in 8 hours.

Bonds and Stocks are incredibly disconnected post Cyprus...

VIX remains well bid to where stocks are (compared to last time)...

 

Credit entirely disconnected this afternoon...

 

and market breadth was decidedly weak as we soared this afternoon...

 

'Safety' has led us higher post Cyprus...

But financials remain under pressure...

 

Gold and Silver flatlined in general but WTI surged to 5-week highs...

 

Equity markets entirely disconnected from risk-assets today as correlation disappeared in a low volume meltup range trade...

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Capital Context

 

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Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:13 | 3378692 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

And we can build this dream together, standing strong forever, nothing's gonna stop us now.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:18 | 3378715 JenkinsLane
JenkinsLane's picture

"Don't stop believing....."

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:26 | 3378753 Race Car Driver
Race Car Driver's picture

> Another Dow All-Time High

Man ... what would Orwell say?

We all know these markets are beyond rigged - rigged was the PPT back in the late 90's/early 00's. But to have headlines like this is just complete suspension of reality.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:32 | 3378773 machineh
machineh's picture

Second highest S&P close EVAH.

Prolly blow right past the record (1565.10) tomorrow (that's the way they work).

85 billlion here, 85 billion there, and pretty soon you're talkin' some serious fiat levitation.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:39 | 3378815 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

"Alright, don't worry even if things end up a bit too heavy, we'll all float on..."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTAud5O7Qqk

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:42 | 3378820 flacon
flacon's picture

...and then it hit me like a ton of bricks. All of my money is actually somebody else's LIABILITY. This Note is legal tender for all debts public and private. 

...and then it hit me like a ton of bricks. All that glistens isn't dollars, it's gold and silver.

 

Who am I? I am Tylder Durden. 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:15 | 3378975 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

It's getting worse by the minute.

 

3/26/2013 4:10:54 PM (CY) Cyprus Fin Min Sarris: Uninsured Laiki Bank depositors could face 80% haircut - financial press- Uninsured depositors may have to wait 6-7 years for a payout. **Earler: the Cyprus Central Bank's Demetriades confirmed Bank of Cyprus uninsured deposit losses will reach 40% (as earlier indicated).

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 03:53 | 3380345 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

I am Jim's complete lack of surprise.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:29 | 3378761 max2205
max2205's picture

I am getting filthy rich buying tna on the last 30 min.  Thanks ben

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:51 | 3378867 Cdad
Cdad's picture

There's an open...and a close.  And the hours between are entirely meaningless.  I'm sure this insures fabulous capital allocation.

Thanks Ben Bernanke...for this wasteland you have made for us.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:20 | 3378717 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Believe it or not,
I'm walking on air.
I never thought I could feel so free.
Flying away on a wing and a prayer.
Who could it be?
Believe it or not it's just Ben.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:47 | 3378857 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Nice grinding riff.........

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:23 | 3378733 Charles Nelson ...
Charles Nelson Reilly's picture

I'm walking on sunshine , wooah
I'm walking on sunshine, woooah
I'm walking on sunshine, woooah
and don't it feel good!!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:34 | 3378788 eclectic syncretist
Wed, 03/27/2013 - 03:54 | 3380346 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

"Eight miles high (and falling fast!)..."

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:27 | 3378757 Banksters
Banksters's picture

The US has finally decoupled, from reality.

 

In other news, hot money is flowing into oil. That oughta stimulate the economy.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:39 | 3378810 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

What's so fucking evil about a bunch of tiny bubbles? - Ozzy Osbourne

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEuNk4JMsUM

 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:30 | 3378766 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Can I see your license for that?
Did you pay taxes on that?
You didn't come up with that quote alone! Others made it for ya!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:14 | 3378696 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

So when will there be a convergance between the S&P and the 10Yr?  I can hardly wait.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:19 | 3378720 Frank N. Beans
Frank N. Beans's picture

when you hear the KA-BOOM

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:24 | 3378739 darkhorse007
darkhorse007's picture

More like Kapoooya-Kapoooya!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YO5WJBlfpg

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:47 | 3378855 AnonymousCitizen
AnonymousCitizen's picture

No, DEISEL BOOM.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:32 | 3378775 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

WHEN s. JOBS RETURNs from the death...

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:46 | 3378845 Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

Awesome.  So it is soon then......much thanks.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:17 | 3378706 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

"vix is high" and you wonder why ????

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:17 | 3378707 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Tyler you forgot, ' Outright Treasury Coupon Purchases'  3-26-2013 ( $2.75-$3.5 billion)...

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:18 | 3378985 Ned Zeppelin
Ned Zeppelin's picture

Exactly  - it is a POMO day, as is tomorrow, and the next day, and. . . . .

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:19 | 3378722 thismarketisrigged
thismarketisrigged's picture

has there been 1 fucking time where we were down 1 day and did not fucking gain it all back and then some following day? disgusting how criminal this shit is.

 

look at this BS article from cnbc, i almost puked.http://www.cnbc.com/id/100592002

 

r they fucking serious? improving economy? what fucking data shows that, please show me bc i certainly missed it then. horrible richmond fed, new home sales, durable goods, but the data showed an ''improving'' economy? wtf

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:25 | 3378744 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Back in 2000/2001 I think, but not sure.

 

Sure the economy is improving.  48M Americans on food stamps can't be all that bad.  Add in the free cell phones and the student loan defaults - it's all bullish.

 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:35 | 3378789 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

It's improving so much they've adopted stealing depositor accounts as a business model.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:37 | 3378800 One of We
One of We's picture

...said the burnt short....me too.....

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:44 | 3378837 LuckoftheIrish
LuckoftheIrish's picture

I have made a hobby of going back and forth between ZH and Yahoo! Finance all day.

 

It's bloody ridiculous the way Yahoo! is nothing but bullshit about the "recovery" and non-stop Cramer.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:52 | 3378874 Lore
Lore's picture

Tiger Woods won today and got a natural blonde gf.  Bullish.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:25 | 3378735 jtz5
jtz5's picture

I am a burned short like many others, but the higher this market is ramped, the more concerned I get for "society."  This shit is just crazy.  I can feel the desperation across the globe.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:37 | 3378802 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

They never let any economy actually crash and cleanse itself.  Only out of such a crash is a sustainable recovery possible.  If the price of food, oil and commodities matched the global economies, we would see gasoline at just over $2.00 a gallon and consumers would have enough money to 'stimulate' real growth.  Instead, we have a handful of speculating banks and hedge funds driving up leveraged positions in commodities, and as a result, they are hurting employment and consumer spending, while holding down any hope of a global recovery.  And the Fed doesn't see this?  How many more years of failed QE will it take before they do?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:52 | 3378878 Cdad
Cdad's picture

Oh...the Fed sees it.  Those guys know exactly what they are doing...and exactly what is lurching towards all of us.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:05 | 3378924 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

sooner or later, the market is going to get a good douching.  and bernake is the nozzle.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:54 | 3378884 akarc
akarc's picture

Amen.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:28 | 3378760 DavidC
DavidC's picture

Pathetic volumes today as well.

DavidC

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:29 | 3378763 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

"equity algos simply forgot that Europe opens again in 8 hours".  But actually the most troublesome 'opening' is when an EU finance person 'opens' their mouth -- much more dangerous than any European stock opening.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:33 | 3378778 gjp
gjp's picture

So much the better for the Americans, who can point and laugh and pretend like they are so much better, when they are in reality far worse, living far more beyond their means, and much more guilty of living off of financial scams

Europe has been paying off for the U.S. for three years running now.  The fraudsters in D.C. and NYC are loving every minute of it.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 20:11 | 3379574 daveO
daveO's picture

If Benny Bucks weren't being sent to Europe, they'd already be broke.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:33 | 3378784 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

When there's a will there's a way. I would be very surprised though if we're not lower in a couple of weeks.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:33 | 3378786 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

I would imagine that many indicators overlayed with an index will show MASSIVE divergence.

 

Had a look at the SPX (SP500) and the XVG (Value Line Geometric Index) for divergence.

 

And the result was that this gap is wider than Lady Gaga's rotten crotch.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:36 | 3378798 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

What a fucking clown act.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:38 | 3378806 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

It is downright criminal to jack the market this high.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:45 | 3378840 Golden_Rule
Golden_Rule's picture

Risk [redacted].

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:48 | 3378848 The Invisible Foot
The Invisible Foot's picture

Just wait, in 1-5 years we will all be millionaires. Inflation baby!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:49 | 3378862 stant
stant's picture

really sucks being the working poor in america .watching the dow and sp go up,with his gas. and the smart ones know they will have to make it happen at 28 hr next year or find a snd job

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:12 | 3378868 Village Smithy
Village Smithy's picture

I really feel that some dumb money is coming off the sidelines here. These are the people who think that the market is going to send everyone a memo telling them it's time to sell. They think that their e-trade or TOS account means they have "access". Here's a memo that may help you save your family some money; google "limit down on the open..".

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:57 | 3378886 20-20 Hindsight
20-20 Hindsight's picture

A few weeks ago, if I remember correctly, iLene (whatever happened to her?) was tarred and feathered by a majority of posters here because she was predicting that Dow was headed for the stratosphere.  

At that time, I must admit that I was tempted to jump on the bandwagon too, but a little voice inside me was telling me that she might be right.  Not because it made sense, but because nothing makes sense any more.  

 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:56 | 3378893 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

One things for sure... the CNBC pundits are LOVIN' this low volume melt-up.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:05 | 3378927 Not Dutch not much
Not Dutch not much's picture

The longer we are wrong,the more right we will be!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 18:53 | 3379292 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

I should be a frickin' genius by now, ND.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:17 | 3378951 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

fulcrum [ a OK?]

distance [proportional if bounded?]

leverage [# Qe'to infinity?] 

balance [unsustainable weighted debt?]

collapse [counterweight of ez... the final last straw?] 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:12 | 3378963 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

the local economy is so cash starved, i can actually tell when a new wave of people get income tax refunds.   on those days my business goes crazy, people standing in line,  all the phone lines ringing, a mad-house.

 

next day will be dead as a hammer.  like today.

 

i had a high-end used car dealer tell me last week that he has yet to see anyone with a refund, and good credit come in yet.  those must be being held even longer.

 

i believe they are sending them out in small waves to simulate a normal economy. 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:40 | 3379050 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

Just got mine yesterday, took almost one month to the day. Instantly withdrew the maximum from my ATM and bought a stack of Morgan dollars from my local guy. Will be doing the same again tomorrow, and the next day, and the next day.

 

Fucking withdrawal limits can suck my balls.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:14 | 3378972 exartizo
exartizo's picture

ummmm.. when does the Equity Insanity stop?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:38 | 3379029 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

string and wave theory... both the same in physics?

currently the market is in the *[false hyper-stimulated] elevated linear string theory matrix-- but, rest assure, the cyclicality of wave theory is and can't simultaneously function  as one without the other making for radical recalibration--- thus, the two always bring equilibrium

yes, the laws of physics do apply to the velocity of money and delta where the timing is always redundant and rather mediocre-- yet this bernak thinks of himself as an einstein...

pathetic is he!?

jmo 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 17:18 | 3378984 fancyfree
fancyfree's picture

Dear Friend Tyler,

There may be something which the 1% of the market that controls 40 percent of total wealth and 60 percent of global revenue http://arxiv.org/PS_cache/arxiv/pdf/1107/1107.5728v2.pdf knows that you don't, which is not just sleight of hands and mirrors.  What about improved governance, societal cohesion, and peace in the Middle East?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 18:20 | 3379152 chump666
chump666's picture

Looks like panic meltup ups.  Commodities: iron ore, copper all down, gold down, oil up caused havoc with proxy risk FX trades like the AUD, CAD (sent HFTs to bid stocks) all bid after outflows from Cyprus (safe-havens).  Total disconnect, but risk on trades no matter how wonky this market is, which drives the HFTs hunt stops.  The whole thing is out of sync and whack. 

It is in the lap of Nemesis.  I think she is ready to strike

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 18:46 | 3379264 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

WTF?  85 billion per month, indefinitely.  Bonds and credit will be forced to "buy" it.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 20:29 | 3379637 IMA5U
IMA5U's picture

HYG JNK LQD all bought it

and HYCDX bought it

IG was 1/2 bp tighter

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