This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Bob Janjuah Tactical Short But "We Are Not There Yet" For The Big One
Following Nomura's Bob Janjuah's 'wine into water... are we there yet?' note in February, the market has followed his script almost perfectly with a continued push to new highs and a small sell-off that was bought excitedly. While he remains convinced that "in terms of positioning and sentiment, we are 'not there yet'," for his 50% S&P 500 plunge; he does believe Q2 will see a 5-10% dip to 1450 as the shambolic policy responses to Cyprus and the 'cat' that #DieselBoom 'let out the bag' add to increasingly weak global growth data. While this dip will also likely be bought, the bearded bear expects the market's comeuppance to arrive late 2013.
Via Bob Janjuah, Nomura,
1 - The 5% February sell-off I was looking for materialised in part. The expected dip in the S&P from 1515 to 1440ish ended up instead being a 3% dip from 1530 to 1485. Markets have, as I expected, subsequently bounced – the dip was ‘bought’ – taking the S&P well above my minimum 1515 target.
2 – As per my February note I think we are now beginning or very soon about to begin the next (slightly bigger) dip lower, of 5% to 10% over Q2, taking the S&P from the 1575/1550s down to the 1450/1475 zone that I have discussed at length in my last few notes. The shambolic policy responses to Cyprus, the weakness of the ‘post-Cyprus’ bounce, and the ‘cat’ that Dutch Finance Minister Dijsselbloem has ‘let out of the bag’ all add to my conviction, as does the poor global (esp. EM) growth data.
3 – Again, however, I remain convinced that, in terms of positioning and sentiment, we are ‘not there yet.’ Which means that I think this coming dip will also be bought and celebrated – another reason for positioning, sentiment and leverage to get to even more extremes. Also per my last note, I am fully expecting new all-time nominal highs in, for example, the S&P, into the 1600s, once it has its first weekly close above 1575. I think this should occur in Q3.
4 – Lastly, as per my last note, I remain as convinced as ever that the bullishness that will likely prevail at that time will come under extreme scrutiny and pressure over late 2013 and 2014. Global (esp. EM) growth will likely continue to disappoint, as we are faced with a possible (probable, in my view) transition from Ben Bernanke to someone else at the helm of the Fed, as the Japan story develops, and as the eurozone crisis continues to play out.
More on that in future notes. For now, on a tactical basis, I recommend getting short ‘risk’ at a (proxy) S&P level of 1550/1575, looking for a move down to 1450/1475, over late March and Q2. A consecutive weekly close above 1575 on the S&P is my stop loss.
»
- 20861 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -
whatever.
The last thing that TPTB would want is to have zero hour occur in the middle of the Summer (people being much more restless, willing and able). This dynasty would fight tooth and nail to prevent that. If they can control it (a big IF), this winter looks like the perfect time to explode this fraud bubble, an all-out attempt to seize as much power and money as possible. At that point, if Juanjah is correct, the "exuberance" and muppet belief (or compulsion to be in the markets) should be nearly vertical.
Economically, it seems like this makes a lot of sense, though I am not as studied in economics as I am in defense/security (of course they will be correlated). In this realm, I also see a good confluence of indicators for this winter.
Tactical short? Some folks prefer tactical long ..
.338
You mean long .308 Winchester, I presume.
No; Not 308, but .338-378 Weatherby Mag. Check it out for long long range shooting.
You are speculating about how and where the deck chairs will be shuffled. I own no stocks so I see the "markets" as a thermometer with a match being held at the bulb. Pretty soon the thing will burst. I hope to be far enough away not to be spattered with the feces that rises and falls to mark the "sentiment" of the massaged equities.
One thing I've started seeing is mutual funds that are risk tolerance based i.e. Growth, Balanced, Moderate etc are nearing the max on their equity/bonds range. One I looked at in particular (Balanced) was 55/45 at end of 2012. It's now back up to 70/30. New mutual fund flows aren't necessary yet to keep driving this sucker higher. Throw in "International" mutual funds that may be selling off European cos and adding US cos and you got a bubble that keeps on growing...
Way to leave yourself an "out" Bob
~~~
Huge brass cojones there...
Dow 26,000 as Bernanke trys to thwart the revolution. Well it won't work. The citizens are already having victorious battles. We're coming for you banksters Gonna have your asses hauled off to jail.
Buy gold Bob..you won't be sorry.
Clueless. It only goes up forever.
Translation:
~~~
"If joo bankers keep counterfeitting joobux out of thin air in a timely way to forestall the absolute breakdown of trust when the "100th monkey" threshhold is reached [which means a worldwide bank run]... We're cool... If not, the 'market', according to out panel of EXPERTS, is at risk of doing a fibonacci retracement...
I'll keep you informed along the way as long as you keep your funds safe with me...
yawn...
Is that a fucking 'ball & chain' avatar there [or what TF is that]?... If it is ~ it would completely explain your fatigue...
yawn .................. 'out panel of experts' ............... you have a panel of gay experts, or you just spell like the blockhead you appear to be.
Ass this is KY Jelly. KY Jelly meet Mr. Ass
You forgot Mr. Penis in that holy trilogy.
Oh when it's all said and done you will wish it was just Mr. Penis. It will probably more then likely be the fist if not the whole damn forearm.
Ever see Caligula and his "gift for the groom"...
Keep pushing out those dates.
What does SELL mean?
SELL are "Shit Eating Luck Losers" who BUY BUY BUY all the way down. At somepoint, EVERYBODY is going to sell to SOMEBODY. Should get interesting. SHEEPLESHEARING is inevitable - the timing (being based on human psychology) is the hard thing to call. Who can predict the actions of several billion deranged "investors"?
Hey Bob does that consecutive weekly close above 1575 s/l have a number on it?
Oh, how silly of me. It's a reverse buy order @1601 right?
We are almost 9% above the 200 DMA, which is just ridiculous. That's never been a time buy.
Long foodstamps
How many times does this guy get to swing and miss?
LOL. The same question should be asked of ZH, of course. It's been remorselessly, relentlessy wrong about the markets for as long as my dick. Which is long indeed.
Use it wisely then. Humour requires intelligence mate.
Use it wisely then. Humour requires intelligence mate.
I say ole bean, have you gotten all of your money back from the 08-09 crash? ;-)
hmm, put $ into price suppresed PM's or into price inflated equities... Tough one there
According to his commentary, he has been right all the time. What a joke.
Long peas, lead and gold.
So it's settled, then. S&P 1750 here we come!
Yes. Unless I jump in. Which I won't. So, yes.
How's the bombshelter coming along ?????
CHIMP
I predict the market will at some point in time go down some and then go back up. Then at some point go sideways.
But timing is everything, remember that. I like to buy when the market is down and sell when the market is at its peak.
During sideways movements I go on vacation from my winings. I have this market stuff all figured out.
Did I get the just of the article about right?
/sarc off
Europe will be the catalyst of failure.
Kyle Bass says Japan is the likely catalyst, and he's smarter (and richer) than the average bear.
I'll confuse you sufficiently with my "sophisticated" speak, while attempting to show authority with throwing in some numbers. I'll make it short enough not to lose your attention and ensure that you are left thoroughly confused and in awe of how figured out I must have it.....the unsaid is that you will need to send me your money to show you the path to enlightenment.
Oh and after you've been sending me money for some time and are confused that you're been losing I'll be able to blame you for not "understanding" by pointing out my numerous retractments of anything I've ever said. I simply am never wrong and can prove it...either way.
I am not a professional investor, but I am very wary of shorting anything in a central-banker led inflationary period. Any "paper" financial instrument is going to be pushed nominally higher by central bankers. Seems like a good way to lose a whole lot of fiat.
I am not a professional investor, but I am very wary of shorting anything in a central-banker led inflationary period. Any "paper" financial instrument is going to be pushed nominally higher by central bankers. Shorting seems like a good way to lose a whole lot of fiat.
The bubble has not started yet, look for the signs. A true equity bubble will have emerging markets leading the way, so far EM has underperformed domestic markets. In fact, EM are negativve for the year which means that true RISK ON has not developed yet. Remember during 06-07 EM was up between 200-600% in some cases!
The crash will come out of Asia, more so China. Like 1987, HK blew up first and then so on...
Also, looking at a war, major 3-6mths from here. That being China/Japan, or Argentina/UK, followed by the middle east. EM markets are getting slaughtered by the oil price, should set the world on fire very soon.
Yes, the crash will start in Asia when earnings and growth flatline or go negative. We are still a long way away from that, we still need a huge Asia equity bubble. The propery bubble does not count because asians have 87% equity in these properties, a true property bubble starts with 110% financing. The Chinese only borrow 17-18% on average per home!
No you don't. You need a commodity crash, which looks likely, equities are already indicating that out of Asia. If EM markets slowdown hard or crash, they get stripped of their creditor status (Asian bonds collapse). Will blow Western markets apart. Also you have inflation issues from oil/energy inflation. Another negative is the loan/USD black markets, they collapse should flatten a lot of Asian/South American businesses.
Now, as we stand in these interconnected and manipulated markets. There will be no where to hide.
We all have it coming.