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Capital Spending Renaissance Deferred Once More As Nondefense Cap Orders Ex-Aircraft Tumble In February

Tyler Durden's picture





 

While last month's durable goods was a huge headline miss of -5.2% due to a collapse in Boeing aircraft orders (just 2), the internals were strong with the core capex spending for nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft soaring 6.3%. Today, the situation is flipped with the headline number soaring by 5.7%, trouncing expectations of a 3.9% print. However, this was due entirely to the unbearably volatile transportation series, which in February saw a 95% surge in Nondefense aircraft and parts and a just as massive 68% surge in defense capital good new orders, driven once again by Boeing which reported nearly 200 airplane orders. As a result durables ex-transportation dipped by 0.5%, on expectations of a 0.6% increase, while the true core capex: non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft tumbled by -2.7% on expectations of a modest -1.1% decline. And with that last month's rise in Year-over-Year core Capex is over and the trendline continues into negative comps territory once more. So much for the great capex renaissance.

Finally, just in case there was any confusion that all that piled up inventory is finally being sold, it isn't: "Inventories of manufactured durable goods in February, up sixteen of the last seventeen months, increased $1.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $376.9 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.3 percent January increase."

True core CapEx: Nondefense Capital Goods New Orders Ex-Aircraft Year over Year

Headline Durables:

Durable Goods ex-Transportation:

 


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Tue, 03/26/2013 - 08:56 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

The BRICs really don't care anymore with regard to the charade in the west.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/brics-nations-plan-new-bank-to-...

 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:02 | Link to Comment GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

No one wants to fly when the TSA  wants to fondle your preteen daughters and military heros.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:09 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Something is going to snap, i'm just glad it's not me.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

if they back a new currancy with gold, the us goverment is fucked

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:02 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:07 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Some new information.  Backing the currency with a common basket of commodities and the discussion of what that basket is and how it should be balanced is the final hurdle.  The end of the Federal Reserve Note is coming exponentially faster.  Freedom is moving east with gold while tyranny moves west.  All I see in the west is true prices discovery moving underground.  Long black markets and sharecropping for those in the west.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:17 | Link to Comment holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

Someone here posted an Alex Jones interview of Smashingpumpkins' Corgan yesterday. Corgan said that many in the US have the mentality of just trying to survive and thus the vote for free stuff via Obama.

Add that mentality to the fact that they likely have no idea what's happening to a dollar decline and these people will have lost everything. And as Celente says, when people lose everything, they lose it.

In that context, the government preparations that are labelled conspiracy theories start making a lot of sense.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:32 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

Good interview with BC even though the LSM tries to marginalize BC as talking to a "kook" like AJ- BC talked about  how tv sucks as far as the family unit is treated and men are emasculated. also-I see DHS is procuring another 400k rounds of HP ammo-beacause everybody knows that it's good "range ammo"

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:34 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Nothing but the best and most expensive ammo for target practice on no hesitation targets.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

That's why I'm off to Chile this week, to do my own research on site. Am treating it like the ideal hub for S.Am. investments, and maybe even relocation -- till the EU and US pile of dung, house of fiat cards collapse and (hopefully) something better emerges. 

There are lots of places to wait out the big RESET, than my back yard or the Back 40.  Places, where joy and interesting life goes on.  Same dream as the immigrants had before they came to the US many decades ago.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Another thing that the BRICS don't care about anymore either is the astronomic price of their weapons and planes. 

Last year, I saw a presentation at one of the defense subcontractors, that showed the rise in the number of competitors from BRIC countries.  It wasn't surprising, it was shocking.  No wonder they are trying to expand their 'footprint' overseas.  If I were a young engineer or tech, I'd seriously consider checking them out as an alternative to work here, where the Gov-style over-regulation is SO extreme, that you literally cannot issue a document w/o having it peer-reviewed via a formal and traceable process.  And each iteration is stored and traceable.  I kid you not.

And you frikkin wonder why the JSF (Joint Strike Fighter) costs $400,000,000 a pop?  And, BTW, you can bet your farm that IDF and their industries are participating in its development.  Not the EU, UK or Canada, but IDF.  Go figure.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 08:57 | Link to Comment the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

Get to work mister chairman

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 08:58 | Link to Comment Haager
Haager's picture

I would have agreed wasn't it because of a statstical glitch that moved some orders into the book of the last month. But why?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

CNBC last month- The aircraft orders are notoriously unreliable

CNBC this month- Aircraft orders lead the expansion- Go team

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:26 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

I saw where Boeing is going to lay off 3000- GREEN SHOOTZ BITCHEZ!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 12:20 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Yeah, and their subcontractors too.  But they are being sneaky about it, to avoid bad press afftecting their stock prices.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:57 | Link to Comment WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

That is exactly right - when the numbers do not match the expected/desired outcome it is downplayed.  When the numbers fall in line with what the media is told to cheer for they put on the pom-pom's.

They will do the same thing they did in 2007/08 - cheerlead all the way down, downplay anything negative.  Only when things get really bad will they shift the tone to negative and tell people to sell - by then its likely the time to start buying. 

Bunch of moronic idiots.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 08:59 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Month to month data is as useful as a goldfish fart.

 

We need rolling sums of the last 12 months, unadjusted, and then have that compared to the previous 12 months, with seasonal adjustments not involved whatsoever.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:04 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

They are not looking to provide an accurate picture of the health of things.

They are there to maintain confidence in the system, nothing more.

So we will keep beating expectations all the way down.

pods

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:16 | Link to Comment ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

You are correct.  

But the reason they want the false confidence is not that the economy will collapse forever.  It's that the will A) lose their jobs and B) have their life's beliefs left in the ditch with other worthless myths.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:56 | Link to Comment pods
pods's picture

Everyone's got to play their part I guess?

Actually if they can maintain confidence, since consumer spending used to be like 70% of the economy, it does tend to support it.  Crazy as that is. But now consumers are tapped out and it is a long slow grind down to eventual misery.

pods

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:11 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

+1 for using goldfish fart in the same sentence with Data.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:08 | Link to Comment Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

When you walk into stores on a Friday night and there are very few people shuffling about while the cashiers are standing in front of their registers waiting for somebody to check out you know things are bad.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:10 | Link to Comment negative rates
negative rates's picture

Gets even worse sat morn. You got one cashier and 30 people standing in line.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:14 | Link to Comment Vince Clortho
Vince Clortho's picture

and most of the people shuffling around are shoplifters.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:27 | Link to Comment otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

most guys in walmart are shuffling around looking for non-existent ammo

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Jason T
Jason T's picture

cap ex is the only REAL investment spending.  this is how we go into a dark age.. our net assets depreciate faster than we  are reinvesting and in due time, the shit starts to rust, crumble, break down and rot to uselessness. forget banking, there goes all the collateral.  we go into a dark age.  what has been will be again, there is nothing new under the sun.  

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:00 | Link to Comment Cursive
Cursive's picture

Just now reading that BRK plans to plough back earnings on GS investment into more shares.  This is not wealth creation, it's the snake eating its own tail.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:04 | Link to Comment nantucket
nantucket's picture

so somebody ordered a whole bunch o' aircraft.  wadn't me.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:37 | Link to Comment MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

This is absolutely insane.  Does anyone believe anything that they report because I do not!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 09:53 | Link to Comment WTF_247
WTF_247's picture

No cap-ex + record inventories that are not decreasing = massively bullish for the economy.  ES should plow through 1600.  After all - who needs to sell anything when Uncle Ben is handing out money like candy.  Any "miss" of expectations is not really a miss, its an invitation to jump on the bandwagon gravy train of the free money express.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 10:11 | Link to Comment orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

It really doesn't matter what the news is.

 

The headline goes something like this. 

 

"The Dow Jones closed up 40 points.....again and for the last 30 days in a row".

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Q:  Why exactly do we need Star Wars planes to fight "turban heads"?  What, our ground forces are too 'pussy' to go into the mountains?  Or is it because there is more money to be made in big-ticket items?  And more votes to be had in one's district -- when few/no other jobs are to be had?

Take the JSF (Joint Strike Fighter) at $400,000,000 a pop.  This is nothing short of obscene!  Who cares if the pilot can target things with his eyes (looks at image projected on the inside of his visor)!?  Against who are they fighting?  Aliens or "urban fighters"?

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