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Guest Post: Reality Vs Belief

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Lance Roberts of StreetTalkLive blog,

 

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Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:17 | 3378004 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Deerstew.... HHHMMMMM....

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:21 | 3378018 Divided States ...
Divided States of America's picture

This markets levitation act puts David Blaine's to shame....

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:27 | 3378045 ACP
ACP's picture

That's why it can be best characterized as an "illusion."

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:12 | 3378297 Ness.
Ness.'s picture

"They're not tricks Michael, they're illusions"

-GOB Bluth

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:31 | 3378774 Spirit Of Truth
Spirit Of Truth's picture

It's collective manic-depressive insanity:

http://www.spiritoftruth.org/Thesis/Intro

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:47 | 3378143 Crash Overide
Crash Overide's picture

Most would say it's hard to kick a crack habit when all the lights in the casino are flashing dollar dollar bills yall...

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:18 | 3378007 astoriajoe
astoriajoe's picture

Can't we just regulate and tax deer traffic?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:29 | 3378428 SunRise
SunRise's picture

We do!  The deer paid his tax!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:19 | 3378014 Groundhog Day
Groundhog Day's picture

But this time is different

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:21 | 3378019 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

This time IS different. Berstinkie has the back of the stock market and will buy all stocks at higher prices. Trust in Bertwinkie!!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:37 | 3378068 kahunabear
kahunabear's picture

I wouldn't count on him turning off the spigots anytime soon and that chart doesn't begin to show the change in the real value of a dollar or the shitty rates for savers. Party on! But, one wrong word from the Bernanke and it all comes tumbling down. Like you, I can't see it anytime soon.

 

One day Bertwinkie becomes BurntWanker.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:47 | 3378140 akarc
akarc's picture

If it doesn't end soon then the Government/Corproate alliance will have a major (more major) stake in the means of production. And that leaves us where?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:27 | 3378044 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     One thing will be different this time. Bernanke won't be able to print his way out of the coming shit storm. Inflation will consume everything that isn't nailed down. ( it's already starting to)

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:28 | 3378050 Joe moneybags
Joe moneybags's picture

For the past 2 years, gold has been down, and the U.S. market up.  That's a reality.  The predominate ZH belief during this period was that gold would be the superior investment.  How many here can man up and admit that?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:37 | 3378081 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'Up' in what, Bernank ClownBux? So what?

What are you going to do when the stawks can't possibly keep pace with rising prices? Or, when tissue paper markets crumble one of these days when it's 'our turn' once again?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:35 | 3378093 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     The market has been POMOed and QEed up. The market doesn't reflect reality in any way. Why don't you man up and admit that? Look at bond yields, unemployment, food and oil prices.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:04 | 3378257 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Re "The market has been POMOed and QEed up. The market doesn't reflect reality in any way. Why don't you man up and admit that?"

On the contrary, the market reflects exactly that.  What it doesn't reflect are the conditions inthe underlying economy, but at the moment the forces created by POMO and QE appear to be in control of the market.

How long that will continue to be the case is anyone's guess, of course.  I'm surprised that it's gone on this long, but then again, I thought 1987 was the end of the road for us, and that was a quarter of a century ago.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:36 | 3378096 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

I'm still up >100% on a cost-averaged basis - with much less risk than I would've had in the markets.  If you want to try and time that shit and put all of your hard-earned wealth into a musical chairs game rigged for the chosen - knock yourself out.  On my time horizon and risk tolerance, I'll just keep on stacking, thank you.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:36 | 3378097 Not My Real Name
Not My Real Name's picture

Anybody buying gold as an investment gets what they deserve. The smart people buying Au and Ag do so to preserve wealth. If the price goes up -- and it will over the long haul -- that's a bonus.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:51 | 3378155 akarc
akarc's picture

For the past 2 years, gold has been down, and the U.S. market up.  That's a reality.  The predominate ZH belief during this period was that gold would be the superior investment.  How many here can man up and admit that?

you knew when you posted that, that you were being situationaly politically incorrect and going to receive down votes didn't you? 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:52 | 3378174 ironymonger
ironymonger's picture

Are you seriously suggesting that attention whores crave attention?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:35 | 3378469 akarc
akarc's picture

Actually I was suggesting it is a brave man that goes against the heard

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:38 | 3378493 akak
akak's picture

I bet you herd that somewhere else.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:00 | 3378624 Citxmech
Citxmech's picture

Pimping the markets is contrarian now?

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:07 | 3378273 Steve in Greensboro
Steve in Greensboro's picture

And for the past 5 years (since the last collapse), GLD is up 78% (12% annually) and SPX is up 19% (4% annually).

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:08 | 3378277 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

How's my Solyndra Stock doing? I was going to trade it for silver a couple years ago, but my full fee retail broker suggested I stay green. It would make me feel better about myself.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:27 | 3378398 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Joe moneybags said:  "How many here can man up and admit that?"

Let's see, tangibles that hold their value or paper profits that can be vaporized overnight?

Hmmm...

Considering the people running the economy, I'll man up and go with tangibles I can personally defend.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:29 | 3378057 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Same old shit....I'm off to believe myself up a steak sandwich for lunch. Oh wait...that only works in the world of finance and economics.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:30 | 3378060 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Just move the deer crossing zone signs.  Problem fixed.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:46 | 3378142 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

That won't work, stupid. Deer can't read.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:49 | 3378861 Darksky
Darksky's picture

Donna the Deer Lady thinks they can.

http://mashable.com/2012/10/18/donna-the-deer-lady/

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:30 | 3378062 adr
adr's picture

The entire stock market since about 1985 hasn't reflected reality, it it ever has in history. Which is a pretty good point to make.

When has the stock market actually reflected the true underlying economic reality?

Stocks shot up in the 20s, it was all because of credit expansion, not because people used real earned money to pay for the economic growth. The same can be said for the past thirty years.

The stagflation of the 70s wasn't actually that bad for most middle class people. Sure there weren't a ton of opportunities to get rich quick, but people did work and small business actually did quite well. The 1980s rolled around and the best place to be was on the board of a company that might get bought out, perhaps at a valuation two or three times what the company was worth a few days before. If you were a common employee, you were screwed.

It seems the times the stock market shot up rapidly, people employed in the productive sector suffer the most. If you were lucky to get a job in the new "growth" sector, you probably had three or four real good years of employment, and then poof it was gone and you were dead ass broke because most of your wealth was probably tied up in the stock of the company you worked for. When homes were doubling in value every couple years, people didn't care about their jobs because they could make more money flipping their home than working for ten years.

People flocked to areas like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Florida because the property markets were so hot. In doing so hey completely destabilized the entire economic matrix of the country. Plus they destroyed the environmental balance of the southwest trying to turn deserts into posh tropical paradises with one golf course for every 100 people.

 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:32 | 3378069 mjorden
mjorden's picture

please listen ... BTFD ...

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:33 | 3378075 Not Dutch not much
Not Dutch not much's picture

The longer we are wrong,the more right we will be!!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:35 | 3378094 casaananda
casaananda's picture

Yeah, well look at NUGT. It's risky, but here at 5 bucks and change? It WAS over 30 18 mos ago. I don't have the balls to buy much of it, but 1000 shares looks like a reasonable bet. Meanwhile, fuck Bernanke and all the rest of the banking thieves.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:40 | 3378095 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Is it me or is it funny listening to the desperation "It's a stock pickers market!!!" ranting by every asset manager that is underperformig their benchmark.

If this market goes up another 10-20% uninterrupted the financial advisory business will be a wasteland. All hail Vanguard.

Then we tank.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:43 | 3378099 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

Not to mention the ever present "experts" who counsel people to "not try to time the market" and "to buy good companies and hold their stock for the long term". So, even though many of the sheeple do make paper profits during the bull phase, they "hold for the long term" during bear market declines and wind up getting nowhere. This effect can be clearly seen in the zigzag pattern of that chart.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:20 | 3378355 SmallerGovNow2
SmallerGovNow2's picture

And there is a huge zag on the way...

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:22 | 3378366 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Re: "Not to mention the ever present "experts" who counsel people to "not try to time the market" and "to buy good companies and hold their stock for the long term"

On the contrary, timing the market is everything.  You don't have to get the exact tops and bottoms, but somewhere in the bottom half is where you want to enter a position, and somewhere in the top half is where you want to exit.  Thus the popular sayings, "the best time to buy is when blood is running in the streets", and "the best time to sell is when there's irrational exuberance".

This is exactly the opposite of what your many investors do, which is to sell in a panic (I've done this myself) and buy in euphoria (I'm never euphoric).  It's true that dollar-cost averaging is far better than this, which is why buy-and-hold might not be a bad strategy for the average person.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:28 | 3378418 Helix6
Helix6's picture

Oh yes, and one more saying:  "Sell in May and go away."  Or invest in an inverse ETF.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:38 | 3378104 H E D G E H O G
H E D G E H O G's picture

YOU can bet your sweet ass that when the time comes for the fat lady to quit dancing, JPM, GS, and the rest of the demonic HFT owners will will have sold out, placing their short bets, counting their profits, and the hapless & hairless sheeple will be left standing on all fours wondering what the fuck happened to them, AGAIN.  Until next shearing season, good luck............................

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:45 | 3378137 sgorem
sgorem's picture

The last "Fat Lady" that I danced with was unfortunetly drunk, and fell on me. Now I depend on my disability check every month to buy a few grams of au. I guess theres a parable in there, somewhere.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:37 | 3378108 kurt
kurt's picture

Gold Mining Stocks

Northrup Grumman

Make a note of this note, date and time.

Get back to me in 8 months,

There, some of us are able to do this.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:45 | 3378131 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

I just know I'm going to hit the progressive on that triple 777's machine in Vegas next trip; I can feel it!

Oh, I'm buying stocks too, Apple's looking cheap here - and Financials too.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:46 | 3378138 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Pump it up Bernanke, you stupid motherfucker!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xr22b_elvis-costello-pump-it-up_music#....

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:50 | 3378157 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

Most stocks at 52 week highs.

The bots at CNBC act as if everything is fantastic!

RE is up. Airlines are up. Financials are all up. Portable technology is way up. Now it's Netflix that's the bomb (again).

I thought the motto of "don't fight The Fed" made a lot of sense in 2009-2010.

But now? It's literally off the charts.  

 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 14:52 | 3378171 resurger
resurger's picture

this time the CB got ya back!

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:03 | 3378246 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

There is nothing sweeter than a good deal and there is no better deal than something for nothing, but the truely wealthy fully understand that to make real money you have to be the one selling the tickets. Its always those looking for the deal that are the first to be fleeced. Unforntunately the gamblers have figured out how to back their bets with our limited wealth, and when the deal goes sour, some one comes knocking on our door. We were all Greeks but are soon becoming Cypriots.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:09 | 3378282 TheMayor
TheMayor's picture

Was there a prediction in this article?

If so, I missed it.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:13 | 3378304 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

We are pretty much at the top of the belief ramp, before reality and a dump set in.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 15:13 | 3378301 css1971
css1971's picture

The Chinese said it 2000 years ago.

It is said that if you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; if you do not know your enemies but do know yourself, you will win one and lose one; if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle. - Sun Tsu

Thankfully, most people are too egocentric to recognise they have weaknesses.

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 16:07 | 3378659 venturen
venturen's picture

Zimbabwe market is higher than our....so don't talk about fundamentals! 

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 19:17 | 3379365 Disenchanted
Disenchanted's picture

Reality

Belief

Tue, 03/26/2013 - 22:26 | 3380016 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Looks like what I'm calling for: http://flic.kr/p/e3JjRS , Mar16

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