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The Next Cyprus?

Tyler Durden's picture




 

In the seven days since Slovenia's new government has been in power, their 10Y bond has seen its yield explode over 120bps as the investing world searches for the next 'Cyprus'-like land-mine. Of course, the Slovenian leaders are proudly denying it all, "Slovenia won't need aid, we can do this on our own," but with the nation needing EUR3 billion in bailout funding and the previous government proposing a 'bad-bank' style breakup, one can only imagine the capital outflows that are viciously circling this nation's financial system (given the relative size of their large 'uninsured' depositor base as shown here - SI). How will they solve the problem? By tapping international bond markets of course, "depending on market sentiment."

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Wed, 03/27/2013 - 09:59 | 3381003 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Today is a bad day to quit drinking.

GET FUCKED! ON LIKE DONKEY KONG!

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:01 | 3381005 maxmad
maxmad's picture

I'll take Slovenia for 300 Bernnake dollars..

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:02 | 3381017 toys for tits
toys for tits's picture

First they came for the bankers, but I said nothing ... because I was too busy laughing my ass off.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:06 | 3381030 SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

ot --

in yet more surveillance-style targeted advertising, the zh ads are not only asking whether I want to date more ukrainians, but now are asking me about my taste for columbians

damned rfid tags

they know everywhere you go nowdays

 

 

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:44 | 3381266 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

That's funny, I don't get those sort of ads. I keep getting some shill trying to persuade me to buy these queer round shiny things for ridiculously high prices. I mean GBP257 for a tiny round shiny thing? Why would anyone think I might be interested in a scam like that?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 12:16 | 3381626 TPTB_r_TBTF
TPTB_r_TBTF's picture

A lot of people like to buy shiny-plated tungsten. You are not alone.

 

 

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:51 | 3381284 matrix2012
matrix2012's picture

i hv no such issue with the minimalist browser: SRWare Iron - http://www.srware.net/en/software_srware_iron_download.php

 

try to tweak your HOSTS file if the problem is persistence

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 23:11 | 3384186 StychoKiller
Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:49 | 3381507 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Try using Tor browser or use VPN SW.
Also, use a cheap, basic laptop purely for surfing, and keep the real data on another PC that will NEVER be connected to the internet. USB and SD storage is now so massive that you can port data from one to the other.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 01:44 | 3384377 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

If you’re going that far you could just boot from a USB stick & reboot when you plug the hard disk back in & use the regular OS. Or in Linux you could unmount / not mount the hard drive while booting from the USB drive.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 01:44 | 3384375 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

You’re smart enough to invest but not smart enough to use firefox with adblock & noscript? Really?

I don’t see ads. Ever.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:47 | 3381503 deKevelioc
deKevelioc's picture

Big spender.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:02 | 3381010 machineh
machineh's picture

Domino theory, bItCheZ!

There's never just five cockroaches.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:02 | 3381016 McMolotov
Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:32 | 3381215 scatterbrains
scatterbrains's picture

sheet Bear Grillz couldn't even think that fast.  Give that sand nig...  guy a tv series.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 01:44 | 3384378 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Bread helmets for the muthafuckin win!

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:01 | 3381008 Super Broccoli
Super Broccoli's picture

Slovenia ? who on earth placed money there ? italian mobsters?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:05 | 3381027 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Slovenians?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:12 | 3381364 Muddy1
Muddy1's picture

Please make up your mind, Tyler.  A few moments ago I read the next to go is Luxemborg, now you are saying Slovenia.  Oh, wait, first luxemborg, then Slovenia.  How silly of me not to clearly see the race to the bottom.  Sorry, I'll do better next time.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 16:29 | 3382875 e-recep
e-recep's picture

rule of thumb : the smaller states will fall first.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 23:13 | 3384188 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

Lichtenstein is pretty small (or did you mean measured in Euroz?)

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:36 | 3385043 e-recep
e-recep's picture

population wise. there can be deviations though. who is next? malta? portugal? slovenia? ireland? lickmystein? singapore? hong kong? i dunno.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 12:19 | 3381640 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Mostly older people, civil servants, tax evaders and criminals from former Yugoslavia use Slovenian banks. The rest use local branches of Austrian banks.

Since bloody FATCA, the banks in all these countries have become 'impossible' to deal with. Not just for Americans, but others also.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:12 | 3381062 HulkHogan
HulkHogan's picture

Didn't you hear, the real estate is great in Ptuj, Trzic, Krsko, Cmomej, Ajdovscina and all the other unpronounceable city's in that country?

Why does anyone care if a country with less GDP than Disney World goes bankrupt?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:42 | 3381194 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

Lol. Go to Google Earth find the places you've named and compare that to a city. Any city.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:58 | 3381307 sangell
sangell's picture

Slovenia has an English language newspaper on line. I went to its website a couple of days ago to see what was going on. They had a tourism ad on the page where they interviewed a former finance minister of Slovenia. I felt bad for the country as their showcase attractions seemed to consist of a cave, a not spectacular lake and a moth eaten 'castle' no rock star or billionaire would ever want to buy.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:43 | 3381477 Ratscam
Ratscam's picture

nice, tall ladies though

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:55 | 3381536 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

One of them married Trump, who has a thing for German-Slavic women.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:02 | 3381011 eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

Open the motherfucking banks bitchez!

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:05 | 3381026 espirit
espirit's picture

Mother Nature says the Laws of Gravity can't be broken...

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:03 | 3381020 blabam
blabam's picture

It's all bullish! 

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:03 | 3381021 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

ECB and IMF playing wack-a-mole with these problematic countries popping up....they better get the big mallets ready for Spain and France

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:06 | 3381028 surfsup
surfsup's picture

How come no ZH comments on this:  http://www.popsci.com/technology/article/2013-03/casualties-drone-war-in...

 

 

The leaders of the so-called BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- are set to approve the establishment of a new development bank during an annual summit that starts today in the eastern South African city of Durban, officials from all five nations say. They will also discuss pooling foreign-currency reserves to ward off balance of payments or currency crises. "

“The deepest rationale for the BRICS is almost certainly the creation of new Bretton Woods-type institutions that are inclined toward the developing world,” Martyn Davies, chief executive officer of Johannesburg-based Frontier Advisory, which provides research on emerging markets, said in a phone interview. “There’s a shift in power from the traditional to the emerging world. There is a lot of geo-political concern about this shift in the western world.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/brics-nations-plan-...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 01:46 | 3384379 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

BRICS Nations Plan New Bank to Bypass World Bank, IMF

By Mike Cohen & Ilya Arkhipov - Mar 26, 2013 9:36 AM ET  

The leaders of the so-called BRICS nations -- Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa -- are set to approve the establishment of a new development bank during an annual summit that starts today in the eastern South African city of Durban.

 

O, RLY?

Cough, cough, WMD’s, al Qaeda-in-Brazil, cough, cough

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:06 | 3381032 pashley1411
pashley1411's picture

They need another slug of Bernanke Balm.

I saw this on a video game once.   Seriously.   You get to a level where the aliens just keep coming, too fast and too furious. 

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:06 | 3381034 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Next Cyprus is PORTUGAL , period.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:06 | 3381035 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

I've never once doubted my faith in physical silver, and every day I am more sure it is the best way to go. I would be terrified to hold my life's savings in any paper.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:06 | 3381036 hugovanderbubble
hugovanderbubble's picture

Then Latvia and Hungary

 

Then SPAIN

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:08 | 3381044 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

Ooh! Ooh! Don't forget Italy!

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:09 | 3381046 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

And France... No.. Wait France has only poor people.

UK then! £25 bln capital shortfall in banks, most of it in the 83% State-owned RBC.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:10 | 3381051 Edward Fiatski
Edward Fiatski's picture

DoucheBank with it's 50x leverage as well - don't you forget that.

Hope you're not saddened, if I didn't mention your country/farm.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:18 | 3381387 NoClueSneaker
NoClueSneaker's picture

DoucheBank HAD an 50X leverage . The stock lost 10% in 3 days.

The risk of bankrupcy WAS 38,5% . ( Champ is Unicredit, Douches must improve ).

But, Jens Weidmann will bail them out . He has 900 Bn. € in PIIGS Bonds wich everyone want to have so desperately.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:43 | 3381261 Boondocker
Boondocker's picture

Just confiscate the City of London....

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:48 | 3381278 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

You mean you actually want all those banksters? Thank God. I thought we'd never get rid of them.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:19 | 3381389 bichat
bichat's picture

I remember watching a program about Greece ... it was around their 1st bailout

They said it will happen in that order

Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, France...and then Germany

The big question is what is Germany without its partners? Nothing

Never forget that France is Germany's main trading partner

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:09 | 3381041 timbo_em
timbo_em's picture

With NPL at a record high of roughly 20 percent of GDP and a socialist government in power, that surge seems reasonable. Troika coming to town! Looking forward to the new one-off measure.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 01:46 | 3384380 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Troika to claw back / claw out any money they can?

 No longer in season but…

Better not save,

Better not try,

Better not bank, I’m tellin you why….

Troika-claws is comin’ to town!

:D

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:09 | 3381047 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

We won't need aid, we can do this on our own...  same words spoken by the Cypriot Central Bank in January...  And Spain's Bankia in 2012...  and Ben Bernanke for years....

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:27 | 3381420 Urban Redneck
Urban Redneck's picture

"We won't need aid, we can do this on our own..." ONLY IF THEY EXCISE THAT CANCEROUS TUMOR ON THEIR BACKS THAT IS THE EURO, before Dr. Frankenfreak and his Brussels Bitchez arrive in town to do their medieval version of "surgery"...

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:11 | 3381055 Mister Ponzi
Mister Ponzi's picture

Slovenian borrowing costs are comparable to Portugal, the bad assets in the banks sum up to 20% of (steadily falling) Slovenian GDP. GDP numbers (YOY) read as follows: Q3 2011: -0.5%, Q4 2011: -2.8%, Q1 2012: -0.2%, Q2 2012: -3.2%, Q3 2012: -3.3%, Q4 2012: -3.0%

I visited Slovenia last summer and was shocked to see prices in supermarkets. For many products the price level was higher compared to European core countries like Austria or Germany. A disaster in the making.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 12:09 | 3381589 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Their prices were lower than the core, before they got the Euro as their currency and were not in NATO. Since then, the Gov bureaucracy has mushroomed and prices risen to levels that only a shadow economy (not paying taxes) can afford.

Plus, their first Conservative gov, upon getting elected, gave the Catholic Church back all the lands, properties and buildings that was confiscated/nationalized in 1945. With a stroke of a pen, the Church became the largest land owner in the country. Guess which candidate they backed?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:12 | 3381063 Alex Lionson
Alex Lionson's picture

Bloody Russians! Again, they will be the first to pull out their money from Slovenia, while nobody suspects anything!

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:56 | 3381297 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Yeah, the bastards!  Always paying attention to events and taking appropriate action to protect their money!  Why can't they be like everybody else and just take the Central Bankers and politicians at their word when they promise 'no confiscation, no capital controls, everything's great....'?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:12 | 3381068 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

Has there ever been a greater economically eplicable law than the law of unintended consequences?

All those neo-classical, keynesian pan heads, who believed that a little tinkering here and there was all that was needed to "tide us over" until "growth could resume" must really hang their heads now. This snowball is quickly becoming a meteor. 85 billion dollars a month forever from the FED, interest rates at zero,everywhere, forever, bank-runs, currency controls, currency wars hotting up, trade wars next and still no growth. 

Law of unintended consequences rules, bitchez: )

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:15 | 3381085 TrumpXVI
TrumpXVI's picture

But...there WILL be growth....right?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:23 | 3381148 Sheeple Shepard
Sheeple Shepard's picture

Someone wiser tham myself once said " If you walk half the distance to the wall, and then half that distance again, and again, and again....... you never reach the wall. So Yes, and no.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:15 | 3381078 Anasteus
Anasteus's picture

They should finally shut it all down and start dissolving the whole project in a controlled way. This farce is becoming embarrassing.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:24 | 3381161 geotrader
geotrader's picture

This might exactly what they are doing....inadvertently.  

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:18 | 3381101 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

It's good thing that Cyprus was or wasn't or was again a template.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:20 | 3381127 WallowaMountainMan
WallowaMountainMan's picture

so...let's see...

smart money is already rotating around to the next 'we have no way to go but broke country' as the next short.

and probably, some matrix of the next countries.

if not already algo'd in, then funny monied cds'd written to hedge.... (as it was in ahead of cyprus, 'cause that was public knowledge to at least all cypriots and everybody who had an interest in it well ahead of negotioned deal).

so....

well....

let's see...

ummm...

sounds familiarity...

good, nothing more for me to say. i am going for a hike.

:)

 

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:20 | 3381129 laomei
laomei's picture

The only safe money is the money in your hands. And once there's too much out of the system, that money's not safe either.  Have fun!

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:26 | 3381172 CaptainSpaulding
CaptainSpaulding's picture

The biggest story in my local newspaper was Amanda Knox. Go figure

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 16:32 | 3381213 ThisIsBob
ThisIsBob's picture

Slovenia?  Where the fuck is Slovenia?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 01:49 | 3384384 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

Isn't that a side-quest in Castlevania II ?

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:44 | 3381255 L_Conquistador
L_Conquistador's picture

300 wooly bears!!

(According to my Slovenian friend, these curse words are unique to Slovene.)

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 10:58 | 3381305 Going Loco
Going Loco's picture

"300 wooly bears!! (According to my Slovenian friend, these curse words are unique to Slovene.)"

That could be indicative of the intellectual capacity of your average Slovenian, if that's the best they can come up with for a curse.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 01:48 | 3384383 MeelionDollerBogus
MeelionDollerBogus's picture

I guess that depends on if it’s ever happened or not :D

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 11:00 | 3381318 Al Huxley
Al Huxley's picture

Hey MDB, here's some more quality high-yield govt paper for you to invest in!  Hurry before it's all snapped up by savvy value investors!

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 12:06 | 3381586 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Just rolling up all the pieces, starting with the little ones.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 12:07 | 3381588 Spurs
Spurs's picture

It was fun back in 1991 to commit war crimes which were conveniently swept under the carpet. Now is payback time for Slovenians. Fuck you! You killed my friend's son.

Wed, 03/27/2013 - 14:45 | 3382368 L_Conquistador
L_Conquistador's picture

Uhm, are you talking about Serbians, not Slovenians?

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