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Chart Of The Day: Deja Vu All Over Again
The miss in the Kansas City Fed data makes it four out of four today for weaker-than-expected macro prints and of course, equity markets are pushing to new highs. Under the surface of each of these reports the data is even more compellingly ugly - and we have seen this pattern of mass delusion before. As the chart below shows (confirming many of our macro-reality to market-unreality divergences) the crash in Kansas City Fed employment data relative to the S&P 500 is as divergent as ever. The last time this happened, things didn't work out so well.
Charts: Bloomberg
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get some other fed bank to produce the data
yes but the VIX is still 1.5 points from the 3-14 low which should equate to at least 60 more positive ES points....nothing else matters......all of these economic reports you speak of, were they unearthed from some ancient burial site? /s
TD said "The last time this happened, things didn't work out so well." Of course not TD, but then again that was 2006/07. The Bernank wasn't hell bent yet on running the digital ink press until it blows a tube....
US Indices might be up today but the volumes are MINISCULE so far.
DavidC
Carlos on CNBC just said that S&P500 'closing' above the all time highs....FUCKIN CLOSE IS STILL 4 HOURS AWAY YOU Fuckin dumbass!!!
Well, maybe if S&P does actually close above all-time previous megabubble highs, then the goal-seekers job will be considered done?
I guess you didn't get the memo from the head office. Markets are closing higher today in advance of the good friday holiday. maybe check your spam folder, I'm sure its in there.
+1
He so totally missed the ***WAIT UNTIL 4:01 P.M. EST TO ANNOUNCE*** banner.
Yeah, last time we made the mistake of thinking we could all get rich just buying and selling houses to eachother at constantly increasing prices. You see where that plan went off the rails, right? There were actual houses involved in that scheme.
THIS TIME we aren't going to make that mistake. This time we're not going to have ANYTHING real involved in our get-rich-quick scheme. We're going to simply print money to get rich. And not even on paper- just ones and zeroes in a computer.
THIS TIME IT'S GONNA WORK, BABY!
Only problem with this is last time FED was not printing 85 Billion per month and Interest rates where near 5%. So this time it is different. And then what is there to stop FED printing another 45 billion on top what they are doing?
Nothing...
And we know Bernank will find excuse and justification to do this...
"what is there to stop FED printing another 45 billion " - In a round about way, the answer to that question is oil.
Oil is not spiking as I would already expect it in 120$ area with amount of spending so that leaves (They manipulate this too)
Update needed to BTFD strategy since they are so hard to catch:
BTFP (parabola)
BTFSH&S (scary head & shoulder)
BTFGN (good news)
BTFBN (bad news)
BTFEEGS&CECYG (everthing except gold, silver & copper every chance you get)
And as a hedge:
BTFOYSOAD&ABTC (one year supply of adult diapers & ammo by the case)
nice chart - looks like a croc getting set for lunch on the Mara River
The correction that re-aligns equity market valuations with economic reality won't come until a severe externality forces the Fed to significantly alter monetary policy (or at least future credible expectations regarding monetary policy), regardless as to whether they want to or not.
In other words, when the correction comes, it will set upon the markets quickly & signify that the Fed is impotent to stop it.
This has always and forever been true, and will continue to be.
Monetary policy addiction is exactly like any other addiction, which in reality, regardless of the substance one is addicted to, is all a form of Dopamine addiction:
1) First, the consumption of the substance gets you high;
2) Any dopamine-related highs decrease in intensity & longevity with continued consumption of the substance;
3) Soon, consumption of the substance, and in increasingly larger doses, is undertaken not in an attempt to get high, but to feel a relative normal (i.e. prevent from crashing, becoming physically and/or phsychologically unwell, etc.);
4) Finally, the consumer of the product is either killed by increasing dosage due to such a high tolerance that doses become fatally toxic, or the consumer ceases using the product by tapering off of it or by withdrawing suddenly (in either case, the supplier is rendered moot).
All that matters is the dollar. It is really that simple. The dollar is rising or stable relative to many other currencies so QE will continue. This may go on for a LONG LONG time. Deal with it. The markets may have a long long way to go.
The minute the dollars starts falling, if it ever starts falling...then the fed will sit up in their chair. The minute it falls below a certain level QE will be gone like a fart in the wind and the official US bail in will happen in earnest.
As long as other domino's fall ahead of us the dollar will be just fine. More than fine. That is a curse because the financial repression here will be unprecedented. The mindfucking that has taken place will go exponential from here. You ain't seen nothing yet.
It will also be a blessing to anyone who has the ability to move their assets and preserve their wealth and prepare for the inevitable. But that day could be very far away.
This could go on a long long time or it could end yesterday. The endpoint is inevitable.
I disagree. I don't think Bernanke, and the oligarchs he serves, gives a rat's ass about the dollar for the simple reason that they can generate them as needed. What they care about are two things - (1) controlling more and more of the real, tangible, wealth-producing assets in the U.S. and abroad (2) keeping the people just hopeful or divided enough to avoid French Revolution 2.0.
As long as (1) or (2) are proceeding according to plan, the dollar can do whatever it wants as far as the oligarchs are concerned.
A continued strengthening USD relative to the €, JPY, CNY, CAD, Rs, etc. over the long term would murder the U.S. equity markets, in real & nominal terms.
The addiction to debt is so textbook addiction and so obvious, it is almost surreal. The endpoints are all the same in one way: the end of debt consumption (either due to death or admitting the problem).
TIS, did you not read anything this year from Professor Dr. Krugman?
He writes that deliciou$ $ugar has never been so cheap, and that we eurozoners should stop trying to do silly things like starving the state, balance budgets, living within our means or do "silly currency experiments" like the EUR and just $pend, $pend, $pend
now you talk about stuff like "monetary addiction" just to get me confused? are you anti-business or something?
Do you have a Nobel Prize? Do you have more money than Jamie? No? then you must be wrong... ;-)
Great post TIS. +1 Addiction is addiction. No matter what form it comes in, the out come is always the same.
I forgot to add that Bernanke is like a drug dealer who is running extremely low on the "good stuff."
He has a near infinite supply of the less sought after product (in the form of fiat that's been adulterated, cut & stepped on so much that the addicts can't even estimate how much they'll need to feel any response), but his stash of the good stuff, that sweet, sweet nectar that is ZIRP/NIRP, has already been rapidly & continuously utilized by his "best customers" for years now, and they've begun to build a strong tolerance to it, as well.
There are rumors from the really dark abysses populated by the fractional reserve banksters that some "really potent shit" known as "less than zero" and also called "sub zero bound" has hit the streets, but there are also rumors it has a really, really high mortality rate associated with usage.
Killer analogy, literally.
.......fucking genius insight.
Nobody cares about Kansas
Dorathy does. Her little dog too.
Those would be the top 2 out of 2 total...
I'm not in Kansas anymore.
Dust in the wind?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH2w6Oxx0kQ
This tune doesn't really swing.
The 70s - great for music, a nightmare for fashion.
And the 'yellow-brick' road too.
With silver shoes.
Hey! That middle area of the continent that nobody cares about - well you may want to.
Those fly-over states faired well compared to the East/West coasts when the bubble popped, thus they have "recovered" better over the past few years; particularly housing.
Traditionally they have very low unemployment (roughly 4%). If shits getting bad there, just multiply it to extrapolate how bad it is in major centers.
Just because it's Kansas doesn't mean it should be dismissed. Probably less manipulated too... though still manipulated.
you can buy your portable surveillance towers from ks
http://www.securitymanagement.com/marketplace/product/portable-surveilla...
disclaimer: I am no longer the Chief Product Design Architect for this product
I saw one of those things along I-70 east of KC last fall. Was wondering just what it was for.
it's Kansas City, MO. retard.
There is also a KC, Kansas. The border is about a mile from the Fed building. I think retard is a little harsh Mr. Geography.
Great chart, thanks for the reality.
With all the non-stop BULLSHIT in the MSM today I needed that.
I'm going to buy a bottle of champagne to pop when this biggest lie of all time crashes.
it looks like the Kansas City Fed Employment Sub Index number mirrors the 10yr too?
If you mean steadily and reliably down for 30 years and continuing, yes.
http://www.research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?id=DGS10
Civilian labor force participation rate looks the same as well:
http://www.research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/CIVPART
And that ramp from 1945-1990 was people leaving farms and going to manufacturing; post 1990 is offshoring of manufacturing (and the beginning of the end of career employment and the middle class).
No more farms to go back to (corprate farms now - no family North 40). No outhouses, no chickens, no subsistence crops - just Welfare and Food Stamps or fucking over the middle class working on Wall Street or in Washington, or insurance/healthcare.
better to buy it now while you think you still can afford it.
fucker actually might be going boom soon
Not so sure about that...
CME Group Inc. CME -0.03% and Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. NDAQ -0.22% have detailed plans to launch a wireless network joint venture in May that will beam stock and derivatives prices between Chicago and New York in fractions of a second.
The service is pitched at high-frequency traders and Wall Street banks seeking a competitive edge using the data to place trades more quickly than rivals.
CME and Nasdaq are the first exchanges to challenge the existing array of fiber-optic and microwave links established by communications firms to link big financial centers, tapping demand from high-speed traders seeking a competitive edge.
Because the HFT and Wall Street Banks were at such a disadvantage before this development.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732468510457838834322157529...
it might make a difference, but in which way, to make or loose money even faster
NOTHING is FASTER, OR MORE SECURE than fiber optic cable. Beaming anything through the "air" via microvave, satellite, wireless, etc., opens the window to the rest of the world to capture, modify, steal, etc. said information.
Modify!! Now that would be interesting. Crash the bastards with modified data. Hmmmmm
Encryption has made the "air" secure. So this is no longer the case.
"NOTHING is FASTER, OR MORE SECURE than fiber optic cable." Well, wrong. Propagation through air is faster than through glass, even before repeater delays.
Don't know enough to argue the point of speed, but any idiot should realize that if you beam ANYTHING through the airwaves, it's up for grabs by anyone with a suitable receiver. Encrypted, or NOT. Wonder why the Washington DC establishment uses fiber optic instead of beaming all their secret shit through the air. just sayin, "beam me up thorny!"
What ever happened to that guy that was spending billions to string fiber in a straight line between the exchanges?
I really just can't wait to see the morning when OOPSIE the DOW seems to be opening down -800....omfg...
they wont even broadcast that day , they will play "the best of...." shows.
My personal favorite is when ES is down 10 pts in the morning, and Bloomberg radio triples the usual amount of sports coverage.
It's coming Dog....
That's just what I said to the wife last night!!
Internet going down before that happens
Drudge has a link right now saying that the scary towel headed bogey-men are currently setting up racks of servers in their caves, in preparation of the "big attack".
I betcha bin laden created bitcoin...........it all makes sense now..............
Throw Bernanke in it's mouth!!!!
Hearing that a POMO van collapsed to its axles in front of the Marriners Eccles building. Brace for momentary uncertainty.
In other news, apparently Ben Bernanke recently bought Schaueble's cook book. It has been revealed that Ben Bernanke eats babies, too. OMG! Hearing that he prefers wheat fed babies.........from Kansas.
dust in the wind
And gee....so great it only cost around $20 trillion in debt to get us 'you are here' again....fukin shitwinds are blowin.
Trailer Park Boys - Winds of Shit - YouTube
+100. "Fuckin shit winds are a comin."
looking for a massive dollar rally and crushing of all assets next month into May
Ah yes, but you need to take into account that K-Hen didn't join the Fed until April of '09.
This time is different....I promise.
OK....I'll say it.
It's different this time.
/sarc
It's always different this time, brother Cog. Always!
The way I look at it, bottom line is talking monkeys are still running the show no matter how fancy their suit and watches are, they'll fuck it up, guaranteed.
Need.Moar.Time.....Must.Hold.On
<Still.Haven't.Stolen.Kitchen.Sink.Yet>
You mean like the talking monkeys at Laikia bank, which recently had so much cash that they misallocated into Greek bonds in a search for yield [the process of some mouse clicking lay-a-bout trying to make some gravy with someone else's jing], which then suffered fool's losses 'no one could have foreseen'...only to result in the collapse of the Cypriot economy, and the transfer of that country's sovereignty over to bankers in Germany? You mean like those talking monkeys?
Oh don't worry, it's just a "one off..." For the millionth time.
Sadly, they pretend the asset purchases are helping. Obviously by those two charts, all its doing is blowing bubbles. The real economy isn't being helped whatsoever.
One of two things are actually going on here.
1) The real economy is MUCH worse than the numbers portray, or
2) The real economy would be better without the QE.
Need someone here to name the CATALYST that will cause a collapse:
1) Middle East
2) EU
3) student debt
4) Russia
5) Bernanke chairmanship expiry
All of these CATALYSTS are invalid. The only catalyst for collapse is "things getting better" leading to the Fed withdrawing QE. But then the market should rise THEN TOO.
There will be no catalyst. The student debt is a side benefit as it gives Bernak another asset to buy.
5 years from now there will be 150 million people on food stamps eating chained cpi rat sandwiches while gas is $7 a gallon and that will still be a leading indicator of the recovery that is just around the corner.
I hear those rat sandwiches come with "green shoots."
well said
Yep, what he said. How often have we heard "The last time this happened, things didn't work out so well." Infinite bad news about global economy is trumped by POMO. This is the new abnormal. Deal.
sunny
Higher interest rates.
No collapse. A global massage to numbness.
Long week-end. I sense something's gonna be called after-hours.
Sorry, what did you say? I can't hear any negative Fed reports over the printer running at $85 billion a month.
THAT is funny!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! +100000000 (I would print you 1 trillion up arrows if I were Ben)
It's high time to go short.
If you can short more than Ben can print, then go for it. Otherwise....
Yeah I'm a little light on the 5.25 Billion for today
It's not about me or Ben's printer. It depends on the banks when they decide to reap the harvest from a moderate concerted fall. Profit is profit. Furthermore, if the divergence is becoming so apparent it's necessary to 'help' screw the chart curve to rectify the difference so that the illusion of functional market remains plausible.
Et voila, you'll kill two birds with one stone.
Americans migrating to more free GOP states....
http://news.investors.com/032813-649561-americans-are-migrating-to-more-...
The freest state overall, the researchers concluded, was North Dakota, followed by South Dakota, Tennessee, New Hampshire and Oklahoma. The least free state by far was New York, followed by California, New Jersey, Hawaii and Rhode Island.
Run like hell from the Liberal plague.....
Unfortunately it seems to be contagious. It already infected Colorado which is in the process of becoming Californicated. It will spread to wherever there are public schools being taught by unionized teachers, which seem to be one of the primary sources of contagion.
Hunters across country say they are boycotting Colorado because over new gun laws....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/tv/hunters-across-country-be...
The Pod people have been migrating from Kalifornia to Kolorado for some time now...
North Dakota has about 500K people in it. And one of its Senators is this piece of work. There is nothing liberal about this country and there is no escape. Also, hell resembles driving between Fargo and Grand Forks in December.
Well it is different this time.
We have an additional $7 trillion of debt, 16 million more people on disability, 50 million more on food stamps, and a labor force smaller than 1980.
But the stock market is up from 2007, so all that other stuff doesn't count. Collateral damage from the battle, best just to forget about all that.
A Keynesian sacrifice. Focus on the now in very specific places, like equity values. ALL IS WELL!!!
And $1 trillion in student loan debt with 36% defulting, incomes back to 1970-80 numbers, more retirees getting SS, drones, Monsanto, Europe recessionary, record high military suicides...
But gay marriage is in the news.
Think there is delusion out there? Behold the US housing recovery:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
That is from Fed data so the NAR didn't get a chance to spin it.
Note that's 1980s levels with about 50 million more people in the market and mortgage rates a fraction of then.
That's what recovery looks like!
Yay....buy the housing dip!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Buy stocks too, and crappy foreclosed homes to rent, and derivatives, and commodities, and IPOs, and farms, and everything else....just keep buying!!!!!!!!
Weeee, the central bank Disneyland is so much fun! And you don't even have to pay to get in the park.
That is the chart of the day. Well done.
And ZIRP.
Who cares, where is Kansas?
West and a little north of Cyprus. Or east. You can get there both ways...
Well, wur not in Kansas anymore.
Being from and in kansas, keep this in mind too, usually kansas is around two years behind the coasts economically. Meaning when the shoe dropped in 2008 it took two years for the damage to be felt here, likewise the inverse, when things turn around it will take around two years to see a rise in the numbers showing health. It's just an observation worth noting for your assessments.
I got lost in Kansas for a week one day. Nothing but corn as far as the eye can see, and if you miss the freeway exit in the middle of the state, it takes you 10 hours to get to the next one and turn around...
Kansas City BBQE party. I hear Ben is coptering in greens as a side.
The Sh!t&Poo should be at least 500 points lower than it is
The conclusion of the chart is that $85B/month is the going price of forestalling re-coupling.
(for now)
Go ahead and eat spend them. We'll make print moar.
(Old Lay's potato chip TV commercial.)
This world is getting pathetic faster than I believed....always I hoped for some sort of push back as the pendulum swings back.
It is like living in the movie Idiocracy but with an incompetent and cruel fascist government working for money-lenders.
God save our poor, unsuspecting children.
Pendulum! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gC-Q7Jtbig R.I.P. Steve C.
the GOP wants to wrap up extended unemployment benefits, and put the lazy folks back to work, and maybe they'll stick it bernanke and let asset prices fall to a level commensurate with wages once everyone has to go back to work or starve. maybe they won't. i want to see productivity numbers, employment is dead. is the economy reallocating labor with technology in a more (or less) efficient manner? if its more, then we can all just get along until a real wealth distribution plan is conceived. if its less then the barter system and bitcoin (money that moves outside the taxmans purview) are the future.
Bernanke sees the failure of his efforts.
Did he commit suicide yet?
I predict he will. He doesn't have a clue. And he knows it. He won't be able to find anywhere to hide from himself.
He has given the money to banking cronies who have led him around like a little lamb.
He has supported nothing but mal-investment that will continue to crumble.
His thesis is shot. And that is what gets to him the most.
The soft patch is the first slip off the cliff.
Reality cannot be avoided.
(PS: Wait for the algos to hear this!)
bullish again! no doubt, Ben will be anouncing trllion in bond buys any minute.
New Hampshire?????
I am amazed that day after day the market pushes higher with the internals most days very poor at best. Volumes are very low. New high upon new high on record low volume used to mean something. Now it just means strong buy. Selloffs happen on 3-4x the volume of ramps - means nothing. Market up every week but 1 since beginning of the year and even that one was only 0.1% lower. Shocked that not one analyst makes any note of any of this, nor that any bigger funds would decide its time to take some chips off the table - none of them.
'Very poor, at best'...good enough now in the 'Brave New Normal' to push past all time record highs every day.
they are all in; there are no new fools. the new, new fools are the same as the old fools, recycled and re-inserted by the Fed. REITs to the moon and beyond.
The Zimbabwe stawk market(s) went on a tear also -- for pretty much the same reason(s)...
Most things are not confirming this move in stocks. I am becoming very leery of how much volatility the Zimbabwe effect can create. At this time there are much better places to park than hot stocks. I don't think it is going to take much to get a massive correction because of the number of assets that are not participating in this move.
Banking
Banking is a family business. Over time, a small number monopolize the banks, then government, and then everything else, to ensure that the new family formation banking enterprise is eliminated, which places a premium on intelligent family formation. Ask any old person; government grows itself by destroying effective new families, hence global Planned Parenthood, replacing it with the dumbest version possible, replicating robots. “Free Trade” is about global financial leverage AGAINST labor, and always has been.
Banking is your feedback mechanism to improve the family work ethic. Naturally, the empire pays to destroy the work ethic, replacing it with demographic financial leverage, which, sooner or later comes crashing down. If you are minority labor, you want to breed on the work ethic by employing a banking system to drive down capital cost accordingly. That was the point of the farming co-ops back in the day.
There are two ways to increase power; drive the empire back in time and jump new family formation forward. The idiots have printed and thrown $15T + into the black hole. Why wouldn’t they print another $30T? Why isn’t the baseline in your family Madison or Einstein level discourse? An empire gets dumber every day, as it fails to measure advances in new family formation, until it, the majority, can no longer afford to ignore reality. At that point, it tends to get ugly, fast.
From the perspective of the empire, I have lost every battle, as it has successfully prevented me from re-joining the workforce for five years. From the perspective of labor, I have already won the war, because the output gap between empire education and my students has widened dramatically. Whether they choose to employ the propulsion to build bombs or ships is irrelevant to me; I’m old.
So, here we are in ‘frisco’ again, a ton of construction and a ton of homeless people. Social services will get you all the food, clothing, and housing you want. What it will not get you is work boots and a drivers license. Back in the day, when America actually worked, the unions pulled people up from the bottom. Now, they are just another middle class family replicating machine, serving the banks and the families that own them, building an ever larger pension Ponzi machine, grinding to a halt with the inertia of relative scale.
The Wongs have been replaced by Wells Fargo, in a City Hall built for the purpose, moving faster and faster digitally, and slowing materially as a result, hence $4 gallon, coming on rail cars, and a transportation terminal built on the assumption of high speed rail before it is even approved, and a preemptive lawsuit to prevent anyone from stopping it. Remember that little game we played in San Diego with the second convention center expansion? Have you noticed that all the union construction workers here are moving in super slow-mo?
Commodities plunge.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/corn-leads-grain-plunge-on-ample-u-s-inventories-acreage-gains.html
What that graph shows is exactly the time the FED became fully jacked in. At the end of 2011 the FED was able to place the US stock markets under complete control by running infinite money, as the source of control, through computer systems under their control and into the indexes. It does not matter what happens as long as Holder and Washington D.C. does not arrest any of the banksters.
They have it under control. BTFD