Chart Of The Day: Deja Vu All Over Again

Tyler Durden's picture

The miss in the Kansas City Fed data makes it four out of four today for weaker-than-expected macro prints and of course, equity markets are pushing to new highs. Under the surface of each of these reports the data is even more compellingly ugly - and we have seen this pattern of mass delusion before. As the chart below shows (confirming many of our macro-reality to market-unreality divergences) the crash in Kansas City Fed employment data relative to the S&P 500 is as divergent as ever. The last time this happened, things didn't work out so well.



Charts: Bloomberg

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SafelyGraze's picture

get some other fed bank to produce the data

spastic_colon's picture

yes but the VIX is still 1.5 points from the 3-14 low which should equate to at least 60 more positive ES points....nothing else matters......all of these economic reports you speak of, were they unearthed from some ancient burial site? /s

ihedgemyhedges's picture

TD said "The last time this happened, things didn't work out so well." Of course not TD, but then again that was 2006/07. The Bernank wasn't hell bent yet on running the digital ink press until it blows a tube....

DavidC's picture

US Indices might be up today but the volumes are MINISCULE so far.


Divided States of America's picture

Carlos on CNBC just said that S&P500 'closing' above the all time highs....FUCKIN CLOSE IS STILL 4 HOURS AWAY YOU Fuckin dumbass!!!

SheepDog-One's picture

Well, maybe if S&P does actually close above all-time previous megabubble highs, then the goal-seekers job will be considered done?

astoriajoe's picture

I guess you didn't get the memo from the head office. Markets are closing higher today in advance of the good friday holiday. maybe check your spam folder, I'm sure its in there.

TruthInSunshine's picture


He so totally missed the ***WAIT UNTIL 4:01 P.M. EST TO ANNOUNCE*** banner.

NoDebt's picture

Yeah, last time we made the mistake of thinking we could all get rich just buying and selling houses to eachother at constantly increasing prices.  You see where that plan went off the rails, right?  There were actual houses involved in that scheme.

THIS TIME we aren't going to make that mistake.  This time we're not going to have ANYTHING real involved in our get-rich-quick scheme.  We're going to simply print money to get rich.  And not even on paper- just ones and zeroes in a computer.


Obchelli's picture

Only problem with this is last time FED was not printing 85 Billion per month and Interest rates where near 5%. So this time it is different. And then what is there to stop FED printing another 45 billion on top what they are doing? 




And we know Bernank will find excuse and justification to do this...

LawsofPhysics's picture

"what is there to stop FED printing another 45 billion "  -  In a round about way, the answer to that question is oil.

Obchelli's picture

Oil is not spiking as I would already expect it in 120$ area with amount of spending so that leaves (They manipulate this too)

effing idiot's picture

Update needed to BTFD strategy since they are so hard to catch:

BTFP (parabola)

BTFSH&S (scary head & shoulder)

BTFGN (good news)

BTFBN (bad news)

BTFEEGS&CECYG (everthing except gold, silver & copper every chance you get)

And as a hedge:

BTFOYSOAD&ABTC (one year supply of adult diapers & ammo by the case)


aint no fortunate son's picture

nice chart - looks like a croc getting set for lunch on the Mara River

TruthInSunshine's picture

The correction that re-aligns equity market valuations with economic reality won't come until a severe externality forces the Fed to significantly alter monetary policy (or at least future credible expectations regarding monetary policy), regardless as to whether they want to or not.

In other words, when the correction comes, it will set upon the markets quickly & signify that the Fed is impotent to stop it.

This has always and forever been true, and will continue to be.

Monetary policy addiction is exactly like any other addiction, which in reality, regardless of the substance one is addicted to, is all a form of Dopamine addiction:

1) First, the consumption of the substance gets you high;

2) Any dopamine-related highs decrease in intensity & longevity with continued consumption of the substance;

3) Soon, consumption of the substance, and in increasingly larger doses, is undertaken not in an attempt to get high, but to feel a relative normal (i.e. prevent from crashing, becoming physically and/or phsychologically unwell, etc.);

4) Finally, the consumer of the product is either killed by increasing dosage due to such a high tolerance that doses become fatally toxic, or the consumer ceases using the product by tapering off of it or by withdrawing suddenly (in either case, the supplier is rendered moot).

fonzannoon's picture

All that matters is the dollar. It is really that simple. The dollar is rising or stable relative to many other currencies so QE will continue. This may go on for a LONG LONG time. Deal with it. The markets may have a long long way to go.

The minute the dollars starts falling, if it ever starts falling...then the fed will sit up in their chair. The minute it falls below a certain level QE will be gone like a fart in the wind and the official US bail in will happen in earnest.

As long as other domino's fall ahead of us the dollar will be just fine. More than fine. That is a curse because the financial repression here will be unprecedented. The mindfucking that has taken place will go exponential from here. You ain't seen nothing yet.

It will also be a blessing to anyone who has the ability to move their assets and preserve their wealth and prepare for the inevitable. But that day could be very far away.

tarsubil's picture

This could go on a long long time or it could end yesterday. The endpoint is inevitable.

ElvisDog's picture

I disagree. I don't think Bernanke, and the oligarchs he serves, gives a rat's ass about the dollar for the simple reason that they can generate them as needed. What they care about are two things - (1) controlling more and more of the real, tangible, wealth-producing assets in the U.S. and abroad (2) keeping the people just hopeful or divided enough to avoid French Revolution 2.0.

As long as (1) or (2) are proceeding according to plan, the dollar can do whatever it wants as far as the oligarchs are concerned.

TruthInSunshine's picture

A continued strengthening USD relative to the €, JPY, CNY, CAD, Rs, etc. over the long term would murder the U.S. equity markets, in real & nominal terms.

tarsubil's picture

The addiction to debt is so textbook addiction and so obvious, it is almost surreal. The endpoints are all the same in one way: the end of debt consumption (either due to death or admitting the problem).

Ghordius's picture

TIS, did you not read anything this year from Professor Dr. Krugman?

He writes that deliciou$ $ugar has never been so cheap, and that we eurozoners should stop trying to do silly things like starving the state, balance budgets, living within our means or do "silly currency experiments" like the EUR and just $pend, $pend, $pend

now you talk about stuff like "monetary addiction" just to get me confused? are you anti-business or something?

Do you have a Nobel Prize? Do you have more money than Jamie? No? then you must be wrong... ;-)

Yen Cross's picture

   Great post TIS. +1   Addiction is addiction. No matter what form it comes in, the out come is always the same.

TruthInSunshine's picture

I forgot to add that Bernanke is like a drug dealer who is running extremely low on the "good stuff."

He has a near infinite supply of the less sought after product (in the form of fiat that's been adulterated, cut & stepped on so much that the addicts can't even estimate how much they'll need to feel any response), but his stash of the good stuff, that sweet, sweet nectar that is ZIRP/NIRP, has already been rapidly & continuously utilized by his "best customers" for years now, and they've begun to build a strong tolerance to it, as well.

There are rumors from the really dark abysses populated by the fractional reserve banksters that some "really potent shit" known as "less than zero" and also called "sub zero bound" has hit the streets, but there are also rumors it has a really, really high mortality rate associated with usage.

firstdivision's picture

Nobody cares about Kansas

HD's picture

Dorathy does. Her little dog too.

RSBriggs's picture

Those would be the top 2 out of 2 total...

Ex-Pat's picture

I'm not in Kansas anymore.

HD's picture

The 70s - great for music, a nightmare for fashion.


SheepDog-One's picture

And the 'yellow-brick' road too.

Political_Savage's picture

Hey! That middle area of the continent that nobody cares about - well you may want to.

Those fly-over states faired well compared to the East/West coasts when the bubble popped, thus they have "recovered" better over the past few years; particularly housing.

Traditionally they have very low unemployment (roughly 4%). If shits getting bad there, just multiply it to extrapolate how bad it is in major centers.

Just because it's Kansas doesn't mean it should be dismissed. Probably less manipulated too... though still manipulated.

SafelyGraze's picture

you can buy your portable surveillance towers from ks

disclaimer: I am no longer the Chief Product Design Architect for this product

NotApplicable's picture

I saw one of those things along I-70 east of KC last fall. Was wondering just what it was for.

viahj's picture

it's Kansas City, MO.  retard.

I Am Not a Copper Top's picture

There is also a KC, Kansas.  The border is about a mile from the Fed building.  I think retard is a little harsh Mr. Geography.

ebworthen's picture

Great chart, thanks for the reality.

With all the non-stop BULLSHIT in the MSM today I needed that.

I'm going to buy a bottle of champagne to pop when this biggest lie of all time crashes.

Dr. Richard Head's picture

it looks like the Kansas City Fed Employment Sub Index number mirrors the 10yr too?

ebworthen's picture

If you mean steadily and reliably down for 30 years and continuing, yes.

Civilian labor force participation rate looks the same as well:

And that ramp from 1945-1990 was people leaving farms and going to manufacturing; post 1990 is offshoring of manufacturing (and the beginning of the end of career employment and the middle class). 

No more farms to go back to (corprate farms now - no family North 40).  No outhouses, no chickens, no subsistence crops - just Welfare and Food Stamps or fucking over the middle class working on Wall Street or in Washington, or insurance/healthcare.

astoriajoe's picture

better to buy it now while you think you still can afford it.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

fucker actually might be going boom soon

Ness.'s picture

Not so sure about that...


CME Group Inc. CME -0.03% and Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. NDAQ -0.22% have detailed plans to launch a wireless network joint venture in May that will beam stock and derivatives prices between Chicago and New York in fractions of a second.

The service is pitched at high-frequency traders and Wall Street banks seeking a competitive edge using the data to place trades more quickly than rivals.

CME and Nasdaq are the first exchanges to challenge the existing array of fiber-optic and microwave links established by communications firms to link big financial centers, tapping demand from high-speed traders seeking a competitive edge.

Because the HFT and Wall Street Banks were at such a disadvantage before this development.



the not so mighty maximiza's picture

it might make a difference, but in which way, to make or loose money even faster

H E D G E H O G's picture

NOTHING is FASTER, OR MORE SECURE than fiber optic cable. Beaming anything through the "air" via microvave, satellite, wireless, etc., opens the window to the rest of the world to capture, modify, steal, etc. said information.

Doubleguns's picture

Modify!! Now that would be interesting. Crash the bastards with modified data. Hmmmmm

RebelDevil's picture

Encryption has made the "air" secure. So this is no longer the case.

Thorny Xi's picture

"NOTHING is FASTER, OR MORE SECURE than fiber optic cable."   Well, wrong.  Propagation through air is faster than through glass, even before repeater delays.