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Final Q4 GDP Misses As Personal Consumption Slides Once More - Full Breakdown
Moments ago, as we prepare to put Q1 2013 to a close with a bout of window dressing that will send the S&P to all time highs, we got the final Q4 2012 GDP revision: a number largely meaningless, although it does put closure to the economy in 2012. And as with all economic numbers in the past year, it was not pretty, coming in at 0.37%, below estimates of a 0.5% print, although modestly better than the second Q4 revision when it was 0.14%. The full breakdown by various components is shown below, with the most notable, Personal Consumption Expenditures, showing a gradual and consistent decline over the past three months as it was revised relentlessly lower, dropping from 1.52% in the first revision, to 1.47% in the second, to 1.28% in the final. Offsetting this was a jump in Fixed Investment which rose to 1.69%, the highest since Q3 2011. Supposedly this implies that capital spending is soaring, when in reality companies continue to curb CapEx plans, instead focusing on short term shareholder gains such as buybacks and dividends, which is to be expected in the absence of any actual end-demand.
And with that we look forward to the Q1 2012 GDP number which while initially supposed to be around 0.5% on the terror from the sequester, has seen Wall Street estimates rise to a range of 2-3% most recently, as supposedly US consumers have many more untapped credit cards left with which to spend, spend, spend.
Source: BEA
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Interesting reading:
http://gawker.com/hello-from-the-underclass/
Using my proprietary Bullshit Adjustment Factor ("BAF") I calculated final Q4 2012 GDP @ .01%.
To boot, using a real deflator such as that of John Wiliams' Shadowstats the growth is NEGATIVE, which has been the case for years now.
@holdbuysell
Real growth: negative, money velocity: negative, money creation: hockeystick.
If all they could manage was showing GDP barely positive as their best dress-up the pig, imagine how far negative actual GDP must be.
The economy is overheating.
Well, the growth is negative - if you look at things produced.
However, thanks to our bloated banking (and hedge fund) sector, 80% of the US's GDP is mostly through investment and banking transactions.
I guess we lead the world in shuffling money around.
You gotta love it. The most powerful empire ever, just tryin' to look busy.
There was a lot of that in ancient Rome and a whole lotta work going on elsewhere than Rome. . Also, did you complete your brackets? How did you make out so far?
...I remember when someone wrote a book claiming that after manufacturing was driven outof the US, paper-pushing would be the best next big thing. So here we are...
Gawker's stuff recently has been awesome. Highly recommend the "Stories from the Unemployed" series.
Anyone who thinks the economy is "recovering" after reading it.......has rose colored glasses.
Moar 'best news eva' who cares, certainly not equities nothing can ding those things.
Bullish!!!
Must....Buy....Moar....CheezyPoofs.....SnackyCakes....
And kettle corn.
We're saved, it's not deflationary!!!! Power down that helicopter Ben.
Revisions means: We lied to you last time, but this time we're telling you the truth... we swear!
it also means the original estimates flatter and provide good headlines and then after revision the next Q estimate can be calculated off a lower base level to help flatter the next estimate...
Remember folks insider trading is BAD UMKAY?
(Reuters) - Steven A. Cohen, the hedge find titan who runs SAC Capital Advisors, agreed last week to buy an oceanfront home in East Hampton, New York for $60 million, the New York Times said, citing a person with direct knowledge of the sale.
At the same time, Cohen put his duplex apartment in a midtown Manhattan tower on the market for $115 million, the newspaper said, citing the person.
News of the real estate activity surfaced one day after reports that Cohen bought Pablo Picasso's "Le Reve" from casino owner Stephen Wynn for $155 million.
Billionaire Handjob Boyz Club.
0.37%....well played Bernank...well played. 'Better than the expected' 0.35% I'm sure....but DON'T WORRY I'm sure a 'firm bottom' has been confirmed here.
And meanwhile the ObaMao with the false name and SS# still gets to strut about acting like the best thing that ever happened and no one says a word.... do you also get the feeling you're in 1 long weird Salvadore Dali dream? I sure do.
he struts his stuff like a mutt
Sequester...sequester ...sequester...I'm so sick of hearing them cry about their little 85 billion that I wish they would have went ahead and spent it. That way thei would have to point their finger somewhere else for blame, and we would be 85 billion closer to a collapse.
and remember it's not even a true $85b cut from this years level....it's an $85b reduction in the already baked in increase from last year to this year.
so last year I sepnd $1,000. This year I planned to spend $1,200. But then I change my mind and I ratchet it back to $1,150. I'd say I increased spending $150 this year....but the jack-holes in DC would cry about the devestating $50 "cut".
only in politics.
Did you get a new baby? Millions of people enter this country every year by birth or immigration.
Just iagine when GDP is -3.5%, S&P should be around 2,500 easily.
there are further revisons in later years. when you dig deep into the alchemy of GDP reporting, you find that numbers from 1-3 years ago sometimes get changed as the final, actual, real, not-fake, totally legit, last-call-for-alcohol data are tallied. by then it's a distant memory.
"D" is back..QE just makes the cliff dive a higher starting point.
This is disgraceful and the clown in chief is on another expensive taxpayer funded vaction.
Corporate profits after taxes declined year over year for the fourth quarter...won't hear that being discussed on CNBC today.
Another excuse for the maggots to steal more.
Dow Jones is up 11% in Q12013. That's 44% annualized.
One Orville Redenbacher with extra butter please.
According to Fur-Fish-Game, "Wild fur prices hit 30 yr. highs". Wall Street types and politicians are draping their girlfriends in spotted cat this spring apparently............
It's good to be da king...
Has anyone else been inundated with 0% for 18 months credit card offers? Chase sends me an offer every friggin' week. Isn't this exactly what happened in 2007 leading up to 2008? 0% credit cards paving the way for a big boom in the economy.
I like how each GDP component is almost exactly the same.
Shocking (not really):
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/27/trickle-down-...
Shat Shit Shatter