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Final Q4 GDP Misses As Personal Consumption Slides Once More - Full Breakdown

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Moments ago, as we prepare to put Q1 2013 to a close with a bout of window dressing that will send the S&P to all time highs, we got the final Q4 2012 GDP revision: a number largely meaningless, although it does put closure to the economy in 2012. And as with all economic numbers in the past year, it was not pretty, coming in at 0.37%, below estimates of a 0.5% print, although modestly better than the second Q4 revision when it was 0.14%. The full breakdown by various components is shown below, with the most notable, Personal Consumption Expenditures, showing a gradual and consistent decline over the past three months as it was revised relentlessly lower, dropping from 1.52% in the first revision, to 1.47% in the second, to 1.28% in the final. Offsetting this was a jump in Fixed Investment which rose to 1.69%, the highest since Q3 2011. Supposedly this implies that capital spending is soaring, when in reality companies continue to curb CapEx plans, instead focusing on short term shareholder gains such as buybacks and dividends, which is to be expected in the absence of any actual end-demand.

And with that we look forward to the Q1 2012 GDP number which while initially supposed to be around 0.5% on the terror from the sequester, has seen Wall Street estimates rise to a range of 2-3% most recently, as supposedly US consumers have many more untapped credit cards left with which to spend, spend, spend.

Source: BEA

 

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Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:46 | 3384835 Cursive
Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:52 | 3384858 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Using my proprietary Bullshit Adjustment Factor ("BAF") I calculated final Q4 2012 GDP @ .01%.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:57 | 3384885 holdbuysell
holdbuysell's picture

To boot, using a real deflator such as that of John Wiliams' Shadowstats the growth is NEGATIVE, which has been the case for years now.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:00 | 3384908 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@holdbuysell

Real growth: negative, money velocity: negative, money creation: hockeystick.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:02 | 3384916 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

If all they could manage was showing GDP barely positive as their best dress-up the pig, imagine how far negative actual GDP must be.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:28 | 3385019 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

The economy is overheating.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:08 | 3384940 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Well, the growth is negative - if you look at things produced.

However, thanks to our bloated banking (and hedge fund) sector, 80% of the US's GDP is mostly through investment and banking transactions.

I guess we lead the world in shuffling money around.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:47 | 3385333 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

You gotta love it. The most powerful empire ever, just tryin' to look busy.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:22 | 3385671 TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

There was a lot of that in ancient Rome and a whole lotta work going on elsewhere than Rome. . Also, did you complete your brackets? How did you make out so far?

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 14:41 | 3389034 dizzyfingers
dizzyfingers's picture

...I remember when someone wrote a book claiming that after manufacturing was driven outof the US, paper-pushing would be the best next big thing. So here we are...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:06 | 3384936 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Gawker's stuff recently has been awesome.  Highly recommend the "Stories from the Unemployed" series. 

Anyone who thinks the economy is "recovering" after reading it.......has rose colored glasses.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:47 | 3384840 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Moar 'best news eva' who cares, certainly not equities nothing can ding those things.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:47 | 3384844 natronic
natronic's picture

Bullish!!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:49 | 3384850 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Must....Buy....Moar....CheezyPoofs.....SnackyCakes....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:54 | 3384871 Fishthatlived
Fishthatlived's picture

And kettle corn.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:51 | 3384855 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

We're saved, it's not deflationary!!!! Power down that helicopter Ben.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:50 | 3384856 GrinandBearit
GrinandBearit's picture

Revisions means:  We lied to you last time, but this time we're telling you the truth... we swear!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:52 | 3385109 LibertarianX
LibertarianX's picture

it also means the original estimates flatter and provide good headlines and then after revision the next Q estimate can be calculated off a lower base level to help flatter the next estimate...

 

 

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:54 | 3384868 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Remember folks insider trading is BAD UMKAY?

(Reuters) - Steven A. Cohen, the hedge find titan who runs SAC Capital Advisors, agreed last week to buy an oceanfront home in East Hampton, New York for $60 million, the New York Times said, citing a person with direct knowledge of the sale.

 

At the same time, Cohen put his duplex apartment in a midtown Manhattan tower on the market for $115 million, the newspaper said, citing the person.

 

News of the real estate activity surfaced one day after reports that Cohen bought Pablo Picasso's "Le Reve" from casino owner Stephen Wynn for $155 million.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:00 | 3384910 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Billionaire Handjob Boyz Club.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:04 | 3384869 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

0.37%....well played Bernank...well played. 'Better than the expected' 0.35% I'm sure....but DON'T WORRY I'm sure a 'firm bottom' has been confirmed here.

And meanwhile the ObaMao with the false name and SS# still gets to strut about acting like the best thing that ever happened and no one says a word.... do you also get the feeling you're in 1 long weird Salvadore Dali dream? I sure do.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:44 | 3385082 the not so migh...
the not so mighty maximiza's picture

he struts his stuff like a mutt

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:54 | 3384870 Dr. Engali
Dr. Engali's picture

Sequester...sequester ...sequester...I'm so sick of hearing them cry about their little 85 billion that I wish they would have went ahead and spent it. That way thei would have to point their finger somewhere else for blame, and we would be 85 billion closer to a collapse.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:10 | 3384947 nantucket
nantucket's picture

and remember it's not even a true $85b cut from this years level....it's an $85b reduction in the already baked in increase from last year to this year.

so last year I sepnd $1,000.  This year I planned to spend $1,200.  But then I change my mind and I ratchet it back to $1,150.  I'd say I increased spending $150 this year....but the jack-holes in DC would cry about the devestating $50 "cut".

only in politics.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:21 | 3384990 bnbdnb
bnbdnb's picture

Did you get a new baby? Millions of people enter this country every year by birth or immigration.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:00 | 3384904 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Just iagine when GDP is -3.5%, S&P should be around 2,500 easily.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:03 | 3384921 nantucket
nantucket's picture

there are further revisons in later years.  when you dig deep into the alchemy of GDP reporting, you find that numbers from 1-3 years ago sometimes get changed as the final, actual, real, not-fake, totally legit, last-call-for-alcohol data are tallied. by then it's a distant memory.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:10 | 3384952 virgilcaine
virgilcaine's picture

"D"  is back..QE just makes the cliff dive a higher starting point.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:19 | 3384982 MFLTucson
MFLTucson's picture

This is disgraceful and the clown in chief is on another expensive taxpayer funded vaction.  

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:25 | 3385009 ejmoosa
ejmoosa's picture

Corporate profits after taxes declined year over year for the fourth quarter...won't hear that being discussed on CNBC today.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:34 | 3385034 buzzsaw99
buzzsaw99's picture

Another excuse for the maggots to steal more.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:42 | 3385066 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Dow Jones is up 11% in Q12013.  That's 44% annualized.

 

One Orville Redenbacher with extra butter please.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:57 | 3385122 pine_marten
pine_marten's picture

According to Fur-Fish-Game, "Wild fur prices hit 30 yr. highs".  Wall Street types and politicians are draping their girlfriends in spotted cat this spring apparently............

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:23 | 3385675 edifice
edifice's picture

It's good to be da king...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:11 | 3385157 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

Has anyone else been inundated with 0% for 18 months credit card offers? Chase sends me an offer every friggin' week. Isn't this exactly what happened in 2007 leading up to 2008? 0% credit cards paving the way for a big boom in the economy.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:07 | 3385178 adr
adr's picture

I like how each GDP component is almost exactly the same.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:21 | 3385228 Shizzmoney
Shizzmoney's picture

Shocking (not really):

There are also signs — albeit tentative — that growing inequality at the top end is affecting politics in unexpected ways. The two economists find that members of Congress in districts with higher levels of income inequality were more likely to vote for a 1992 bill that greatly expanded credit for housing. That was true even after controlling for ideology.

In an interview, Bertrand said it was still unclear why this is. One possibility is that in areas with high top-end inequality, politicians are more likely to favor policies that allow middle-class Americans to borrow more so that they can keep up. Another possibility, though, is that high inequality at the top is driven by a growing financial sector — and so politicians are more willing to loosen credit to placate the banks.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/03/27/trickle-down-...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:52 | 3385351 Notarocketscientist
Notarocketscientist's picture

Shat Shit Shatter

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