This page has been archived and commenting is disabled.
Initial Jobless Claims Miss By Most In Over 4 Months; Emergency Claims In V-Fib
The extrapolators had expected an initial jobless claims print below 340k as the recent trend of noisy drift lower was expected to continue but alas it was not to be. The stretched rubber band of Arima-X revisions and adjustments had to correct sooner or later and sure enough, with a jump of 16,000 this week, initial claims missed expectations by the most since the second week of November (following Hurricane Sandy). The chaotic idiocy continues in Emergency Unemployment Compensation (which jumped 125k in the latest week) as the footprint of statistical manipulation is oh so evident in the V-Fib-like chart below.
Initial claims worst miss in almost 5 months...
as Emergency Unemployment Compensation continues to flip-flop ridiculously...
Charts: Bloomberg
- 13167 reads
- Printer-friendly version
- Send to friend
- advertisements -




That "What is this?" arrow could be used all over the place
I wish they would just tell me what that is...
"I wish they would just tell me what that is..."
..its a LIE
Is there a natural disaster this can be blamed on? No?! Then we'll use traffic.
What reliable source (the govt is NOT) can we get the new unemployment claims/new jobs numbers from?
Tax receipts data would sure be a step in that right direction
The DOJ lawyer who didn’t prosecute Wall St. execs said to get $4 million job
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/03/28/the-doj-lawyer-who-didnt-prosecute-wall-st-execs-said-to-get-4-million-job/
A great segment from a very surprising source as to how private agencies are hired by states to get those presently receiving welfare (state funded) rolled onto the disability rolls (federally funded).
These contractors scour the records of state welfare recipients, then based on the most tenuous of medical "conditions," contact the individuals' physicians & other medical care providers, to get the disability forms filled out (the employees of the contractor do all the talking and actually fill out the forms for the welfare-soon-to-be-disabled applicant).
The contractor receives $2,300 to $4,700 for each welfare recipient it is able to shove onto federal disability (14 million at present, or 1 for every 10 people of working age who are in the labor force), the disabled person then receives approximately 85% more on disability ($13,000 tax free annually + unlimited free medical coverage) than they received on welfare, and the state saves massive amounts of money. Win-Win-Win. Okay, Win(contractor)-Win(disabled)-Win(state)-Loss(federal taxpayer).
Moving People From Welfare To Disability Rolls Is A Profitable, Full-Time Job
The irony is that at my wife works in a fairly large city and there is actually a guy that should be on disability because he has the early stages of alzheimer's but they can't get him on disability. I tell my wife it is due to the fact that the process is so broken that they don't know how to add someone legitimately.
Another irony is my neighbor who was smashed by a tree while logging several years ago and cannot get disability despite hiring a lawyer to work on his behalf. I think his problem is that he's not on welfare or unemployment, lives off of his savings.
As a physician I can tell you that just prior to the 2012 presidential election people were getting placed immediately on disability. Usually it takes multiple attempts. The dems needed their captured voters.
You would think this would be an obvious basis for a qui tam suit (public disclosure notwithstanding)... too bad the SCOTUS was too fucking stupid to apply the federal false claims act to the states... as soon as they do, I'll be able to retire with a few suits in limbo.
States pound the shit out of fed.gov... aww day. Without this largesse, states go tits up in a matter of seconds.
earthquake
"What is this?"
The kick drum needs more compression.
It's ventricular fibrillation.
http://hqmeded-ecg.blogspot.com/2011/12/ventricular-fibrillation-on-12-lead-ecg.html
Time for the paddles
"What is this" should be replaced with WTF?
'WTF is this'?
Looks like what happens when computer programs control everything.
I'm pretty sure it's the skittles per unicorn ratio.
I think we're gonna need a bigger rainbow.
"The continuing claims figure doesn’t include Americans receiving extended unemployment benefits under federal programs.
Those who have used up their traditional benefits and are collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 125,500 to 1.91 million in the week ended March 9."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/jobless-claims-in-u-s-increased...
Nor 14 million who are now on federal disability rolls, which have absolutely skyrocketed in the last 4 years (as a huge % of people on disability could work if they could find a job).
This is yet one more reason, among many, that the official statistics reporting unemployment (U3) and even unemployment+underemployment (U6) put forth by the BLS are so useless.
My proprietary Bullshit Adjustment Factor ("BAF") convincincly demonstrates that U3 unemployment is actually at 15.4% (updated BAF index coming soon may show that U3 has risen to 17%) and that U6 unemployment+underemployment is actually at 29.03%.
Whenever I sneak out of work to run an errand during the day, it seems like NO ONE is working; they're all out shopping or driving around somewhere.
Shit Ben, we need moar money given to banks to fix this.
It looks like they're using a spring model with a large damping coefficient. Good news is it looks like their model will show zero oscillations in only a few weeks.
It does look harmonic with the amplitude diminishing that way. Interesting, almost like it was fitted to an equation.
Quick, run a Fourier Transform on that decaying oscillation, someone is trying to tell us something...
Lemme know where the meeting place is when you figure it out.
I just saw a black cat walk by twice. Think they are on to me.
pods
The Johnson rod seems to be out of sync, causing a parabolic shimmy of unknown unknowns. It needs more lube.
Well, it IS spring, after all, and rather damp. Oh, wait... Math.... You must be a racist to refer to something mathematical like that.
LOL when science shows are narrated by them...not one Fields Medal from an entire race. State Farm lost all my business with that shit.
Would some of these people mind standing by some of our fruit and nut trees and simply breathing heavy? The recent cold in the southeast is becoming a problem damn it. The good news is we have lots of water, for now. Stand by a tree for a day and you can have an apple.
That may not be good news, those people will be using their Federally Guaranteed bail-in money at a faster rate now.
reidiculously ?
I see what you did there....
Will all be solved when bennie increases monthly LSAP purchases to $100B. And promises ZIRP until 2018.
Fed balance sheet target is $10T by 2016.
I would win FED jeopardy.
"What is MOAR?"
pods
They are making it sound like it's good news on Gov't Owned MSNBC......................god those people make me want to vomit
If you are in the business of dependency, this is good news. Just like a weapons manufacturer views war as good for business.
357,000 new regime supporters
Keep in mind who owns the major media outlets... rich people with something to gain from stock market rallies. The propaganda will continue as they line their pockets.
This is a consistent theme, from the AP no less
US unemployment aid applications rise 16,000 to 357,000, consistent with modest job gains - @APapplication rise so jobs are gained?????
Victory Gin for everyone!!! (vodka would be better, my boss can smell Gin a mile away)
I would love to hear another zinger from Jack Welch about these credible statistics.
Jack was always good with zingers. Zingers are definitely a key part of a CEO's toolkit.
Oh good! So we CAN haz S&P all-time highs this morning! Done deal.
The soothsayer(s) face some sort of punishment for placing too much Truth in the latest sooth...
Well, it can't be an after shock, considering what preceded it. Therefore it must be an..................EVERYBODY, GET UNDER YOUR DESK NOW!!!!!
The "V-fib" pattern is just way too neat. Each peak is lower than the previous peak and each trough is higher than the previous one. Just eyballing it, it is way too symmetrical to be a real world occurence.
It's a form of feedback; evidence of a Digital Signal Processing filter, or more likely several of them interfering with one another.
The economy is having a seizure.
followed closely by deposit seizures, lol
I hear the unemployment agencies are laying off.
You are here -----> Welcome to the world of hopes and dreams
Quick Ramp the Stock Market and Sell off Gold. ---> Look everything is going to plan....
Gonna need a new model...