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Initial Jobless Claims Miss By Most In Over 4 Months; Emergency Claims In V-Fib

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The extrapolators had expected an initial jobless claims print below 340k as the recent trend of noisy drift lower was expected to continue but alas it was not to be. The stretched rubber band of Arima-X revisions and adjustments had to correct sooner or later and sure enough, with a jump of 16,000 this week, initial claims missed expectations by the most since the second week of November (following Hurricane Sandy). The chaotic idiocy continues in Emergency Unemployment Compensation (which jumped 125k in the latest week) as the footprint of statistical manipulation is oh so evident in the V-Fib-like chart below.

Initial claims worst miss in almost 5 months...

 

as Emergency Unemployment Compensation continues to flip-flop ridiculously...

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:46 | 3384839 FLUSA.com
FLUSA.com's picture

That "What is this?" arrow could be used all over the place

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:51 | 3384859 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

I wish they would just tell me what that is...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:58 | 3384898 Mark Urbo
Mark Urbo's picture

"I wish they would just tell me what that is..."

..its a LIE

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:03 | 3384922 The Juggernaut
The Juggernaut's picture

Is there a natural disaster this can be blamed on?  No?!  Then we'll use traffic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:45 | 3385088 boogerbently
boogerbently's picture

What reliable source (the govt is NOT) can we get the new unemployment claims/new jobs numbers from?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:38 | 3385298 Au Shucks
Au Shucks's picture

Tax receipts data would sure be a step in that right direction

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:45 | 3385319 Randall Cabot
Randall Cabot's picture

The DOJ lawyer who didn’t prosecute Wall St. execs said to get $4 million job

 

 

 

 

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/election/2013/03/28/the-doj-lawyer-who-didnt-prosecute-wall-st-execs-said-to-get-4-million-job/   

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:06 | 3384935 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

A great segment from a very surprising source as to how private agencies are hired by states to get those presently receiving welfare (state funded) rolled onto the disability rolls (federally funded).

These contractors scour the records of state welfare recipients, then based on the most tenuous of medical "conditions," contact the individuals' physicians & other medical care providers, to get the disability forms filled out (the employees of the contractor do all the talking and actually fill out the forms for the welfare-soon-to-be-disabled applicant).

The contractor receives $2,300 to $4,700 for each welfare recipient it is able to shove onto federal disability (14 million at present, or 1 for every 10 people of working age who are in the labor force), the disabled person then receives approximately 85% more on disability ($13,000 tax free annually + unlimited free medical coverage) than they received on welfare, and the state saves massive amounts of money. Win-Win-Win.  Okay, Win(contractor)-Win(disabled)-Win(state)-Loss(federal taxpayer).

Moving People From Welfare To Disability Rolls Is A Profitable, Full-Time Job


Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:12 | 3384961 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

The irony is that at my wife works in a fairly large city and there is actually a guy that should be on disability because he has the early stages of alzheimer's but they can't get him on disability.  I tell my wife it is due to the fact that the process is so broken that they don't know how to add someone legitimately.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:22 | 3384997 aka Gil
aka Gil's picture

Another irony is my neighbor who was smashed by a tree while logging several years ago and cannot get disability despite hiring a lawyer to work on his behalf. I think his problem is that he's not on welfare or unemployment, lives off of his savings.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:41 | 3386149 Dane17
Dane17's picture

As a physician I can tell you that just prior to the 2012 presidential election people were getting placed immediately on disability. Usually it takes multiple attempts. The dems needed their captured voters.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:18 | 3386066 MachoMan
MachoMan's picture

You would think this would be an obvious basis for a qui tam suit (public disclosure notwithstanding)...  too bad the SCOTUS was too fucking stupid to apply the federal false claims act to the states...  as soon as they do, I'll be able to retire with a few suits in limbo.

States pound the shit out of fed.gov...  aww day.  Without this largesse, states go tits up in a matter of seconds.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:30 | 3385021 Sean7k
Sean7k's picture

earthquake

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:33 | 3385031 Abiotic Oil
Abiotic Oil's picture

"What is this?"

The kick drum needs more compression.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:58 | 3384901 Decay is Constant
Decay is Constant's picture

It's ventricular fibrillation. 

http://hqmeded-ecg.blogspot.com/2011/12/ventricular-fibrillation-on-12-lead-ecg.html

Time for the paddles

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:03 | 3384919 Osmium
Osmium's picture

"What is this" should be replaced with WTF?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:09 | 3384942 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

'WTF is this'? 

Looks like what happens when computer programs control everything.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:37 | 3385734 Esso
Esso's picture

I'm pretty sure it's the skittles per unicorn ratio.

I think we're gonna need a bigger rainbow.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:48 | 3384843 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"The continuing claims figure doesn’t include Americans receiving extended unemployment benefits under federal programs.

Those who have used up their traditional benefits and are collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 125,500 to 1.91 million in the week ended March 9."

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/jobless-claims-in-u-s-increased...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:43 | 3385063 TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

Nor 14 million who are now on federal disability rolls, which have absolutely skyrocketed in the last 4 years (as a huge % of people on disability could work if they could find a job).

This is yet one more reason, among many, that the official statistics reporting unemployment (U3) and even unemployment+underemployment (U6) put forth by the BLS are so useless.

My proprietary Bullshit Adjustment Factor ("BAF") convincincly demonstrates that U3 unemployment is actually at 15.4% (updated BAF index coming soon may show that U3 has risen to 17%) and that U6 unemployment+underemployment is actually at 29.03%.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:01 | 3385138 eaglerock
eaglerock's picture

Whenever I sneak out of work to run an errand during the day, it seems like NO ONE is working; they're all out shopping or driving around somewhere.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:48 | 3384848 firstdivision
firstdivision's picture

Shit Ben, we need moar money given to banks to fix this.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:49 | 3384849 ElvisDog
ElvisDog's picture

It looks like they're using a spring model with a large damping coefficient. Good news is it looks like their model will show zero oscillations in only a few weeks.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:54 | 3384872 BandGap
BandGap's picture

It does look harmonic with the amplitude diminishing that way. Interesting, almost like it was fitted to an equation.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:57 | 3384889 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Quick, run a Fourier Transform on that decaying oscillation, someone is trying to tell us something...   

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:13 | 3384970 pods
pods's picture

Lemme know where the meeting place is when you figure it out.

I just saw a black cat walk by twice.  Think they are on to me.

pods

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:47 | 3385960 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

The Johnson rod seems to be out of sync, causing a parabolic shimmy of unknown unknowns. It needs more lube.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:00 | 3384873 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Well, it IS spring, after all, and rather damp.  Oh, wait...  Math....  You must be a racist to refer to something mathematical like that.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:11 | 3384959 AssFire
AssFire's picture

LOL  when science shows are narrated by them...not one Fields Medal from an entire race. State Farm lost all my business with that shit.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:55 | 3384852 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Would some of these people mind standing by some of our fruit and nut trees and simply breathing heavy?  The recent cold in the southeast is becoming a problem damn it.  The good news is we have lots of water, for now.  Stand by a tree for a day and you can have an apple.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:51 | 3384860 fuu
fuu's picture

That may not be good news, those people will be using their Federally Guaranteed bail-in money at a faster rate now.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:52 | 3384862 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

reidiculously ?

I see what you did there....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:53 | 3384863 lizzy36
lizzy36's picture

Will all be solved when bennie increases monthly LSAP purchases to $100B. And promises ZIRP until 2018.

Fed balance sheet target is $10T by 2016.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:14 | 3384973 pods
pods's picture

I would win FED jeopardy.

"What is MOAR?"
pods 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:52 | 3384865 natronic
natronic's picture

They are making it sound like it's good news on Gov't Owned MSNBC......................god those people make me want to vomit

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 08:59 | 3384896 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

If you are in the business of dependency, this is good news.  Just like a weapons manufacturer views war as good for business.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:00 | 3385135 azzhatter
azzhatter's picture

357,000 new regime supporters

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:21 | 3384993 John Law Lives
John Law Lives's picture

Keep in mind who owns the major media outlets... rich people with something to gain from stock market rallies.  The propaganda will continue as they line their pockets.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:44 | 3385079 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

This is a consistent theme,  from the AP no less

US unemployment aid applications rise 16,000 to 357,000, consistent with modest job gains - @AP

application rise so jobs are gained?????

Victory Gin for everyone!!! (vodka would be better, my boss can smell Gin a mile away)

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:01 | 3384913 Glass Seagull
Glass Seagull's picture

I would love to hear another zinger from Jack Welch about these credible statistics.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:08 | 3384946 Bicycle Repairman
Bicycle Repairman's picture

Jack was always good with zingers.  Zingers are definitely a key part of a CEO's toolkit.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:06 | 3384929 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh good! So we CAN haz S&P all-time highs this morning! Done deal.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:06 | 3384932 StychoKiller
StychoKiller's picture

The soothsayer(s) face some sort of punishment for placing too much Truth in the latest sooth...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:11 | 3384953 Downtoolong
Downtoolong's picture

What is this?

Well, it can't be an after shock, considering what preceded it. Therefore it must be an..................EVERYBODY, GET UNDER YOUR DESK NOW!!!!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:12 | 3384966 jpc578
jpc578's picture

The "V-fib" pattern is just way too neat. Each peak is lower than the previous peak and each trough is higher than the previous one. Just eyballing it, it is way too symmetrical to be a real world occurence.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:13 | 3385176 css1971
css1971's picture

It's a form of feedback; evidence of a Digital Signal Processing filter, or more likely several of them interfering with one another.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:21 | 3384989 TumblingDice
TumblingDice's picture

The economy is having a seizure.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:45 | 3385089 stormsailor
stormsailor's picture

followed closely by deposit seizures, lol

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:47 | 3385095 mayhem_korner
mayhem_korner's picture

 

 

I hear the unemployment agencies are laying off. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:49 | 3385100 Curt W
Curt W's picture

You are here -----> Welcome to the world of hopes and dreams

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 09:51 | 3385106 Platinum_Investor
Platinum_Investor's picture

Quick Ramp the Stock Market and Sell off Gold.  --->  Look everything is going to plan....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 10:38 | 3385301 azengrcat
azengrcat's picture

Gonna need a new model...

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