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Just Four Charts
Since the Cyprus headlines hit, the markets have been 'confused'. Bonds have been bid, protection has been aggressively chased in credit (CDX) and equity markets (VIX), and FX carry markets have completely decoupled from a quarter-end heat-seeking missile of an equity market. Can it last? Who knows, but one way or another these short-term divergences suggest there are better ways than stocks to play a long bet or, alternatively, the marginal buyer of equities here is disconnected from every other asset classes' reality.
Interesting in this first chart that each time Gold and Stocks recoupled post Cyprus, Stocks plunged...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Everyone is a trend follower nowadays. They will continue to ignore the fundamentals until the trend is broken.
A few months ago Anonymous sent out a video where they threatened to release all sorts of private info on the web as a result of someone's suicide. Did anything happen?
Yes, it was a bull-flag.
charts picture more crocs dining on the mara river
I wonder if the bernank ever read any books on catastrophe theory. He sure is making one unstable system that looks poised for a non-linear jump. What was it that Kyle Bass said about Jump-Risk? Oh yes, 23 year-old wiz-kids were selling him Jump_Risk protection for pennies. I want in on that!
Four pieces of negative macro news released today, plus Cyprus in the backround and markets still up. How long can this level of retardation last?
$85 billion a month from Uncle Ben — so, longer than you can stay solvent and/or sane.
You can bet that amount will rise and extend for years too.
We will look back in the future and wonder how stock markets existed before money printing. It will be that out of wack.
Amen. Bernanke promised $40 billion, yet before we knew it, the monthly counterfeiting became $85 billion. What's to say it won't become $200 billion a month? Answer: nothing.
"What's to say it won't become $200 billion a month?" - The petrodollar. Despite the printing, others are printing as well. BRICs already trying to do their own thing, but do you really beleive the numbers reported by the Chinese? Yes, the earth is insolvent, but the bernanke has the petrodollar, for now.
Good point. Either way, it's checkmate for the world. Everyone loses.
Beat me to it... That is THE reason... Oh and end of quarter window dressing of course...
Think about this metaphor. Ever notice how those pent up religious kids end up being the craziest ones at spring break? The point is that when a system represses a group of people's "normal" behavior for a long time, those people tend to over react once the restrictions are removed. They don't know how to self-govern. It should be fun to watch the behavior of the market participants once the Bernank-Curfew has been lifted.
Use this lull in PM prices to stack higher. You have been warned what banks are going to do if you have any deposits.
Till morale improves.
Hey everybody… If your Euro has a "G" in the serial number that means it was printed in Cyprus. How much longer you gonna hold those?
As Ambrose Pritchard-Evans wrote, "The Cyprus debacle has taught us yet again that EMU has gone off the rails, is a danger to stability, and should be dismantled before it destroys Europe’s post-War order." You can read more in "Cyprus has finally killed myth that EMU is benign."
Also in Greece, Kathimerini had these headlines:
Cyprus euro controls may last years as Sarris vows ‘weeks’
Euro area depositors fastest to leave Cyprus in February
And up and holding on miniscule volume, which has exactly 0 meaning lately. There are just very few net sellers of anything - all algos are on the same bandwagon. There are no funds that want to take profits at all so we keep going higher. Other than very, very short term selloffs (1-3 hours) perhaps one time per week, we spend 95% of the time going higher across most sectors, most names. What does not move today will move tomorrow.
Commodities plunge.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/corn-leads-grain-plunge-on-ample-u-s-inventories-acreage-gains.html
I can confirm the soybean stockpiles. Perhaps I should ask for gold in exchange for our next shipment east?
Whats the deal with gold today?
Are all the people that lost money in banks selling their gold so they can replenish the money they had in the bank?
Naked short selling of paper gold that doesn't exist...
See you on Tuesday, April 2nd. :)
Fundamentals don't mean DICK in this market.
Are we looking at DOW 20000 by the end of the year? At the rate of about 30 points up everyday for 200 trading days it would seem so. On the other hand, if I get into the market now as a buyer, the market may tank all the way to 10,000. Strange.
Are we looking at DOW 20000 by the end of the year? At the rate of about 30 points up everyday for 200 trading days it would seem so.
"each time Gold and Stocks recoupled post Cyprus, Stocks plunged..." Whew, those 10 & 20 point "plunges" musta really have shaken the sheeple to the core!!!!
I guess we could round-up those loses to, what, 2%; only to retrace the "plunge" the next day?
One of the serious dangers with all this manipulation is that if the boyz fuck around with the grains too much we'll all starve to death. Oh wait, maybe that's the plan?