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Spot The Housing Recovery
The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic' so we decided to go in search of this mystical anecdotal surge that is so often heard on the airwaves of the preachers. It turns out, the recovery (if that's what you want to call it) is not so much. Just as in Europe, it seems if we repeat the same lie (or hope) often enough, it may just come true. So it is in the US. Headlines crow of YoY gains and ad hoc surges (Vegas and Silicon Valley) but if you dig down just an inch or two into the real data, the housing 'recovery' is the little train that isn't. As Bloomberg notes, regional home prices have recovered to only 2004 levels and while the REO-to-Rent model remains for the late-to-the-gamers, it is inevitably a self-destroying bubble if there is no organic growth and one glance at the rate of mortgage applications ('real' buyers) says all we need to know about the housing 'recovery'.
Charts: Bloomberg
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Admittedly we are only in the early stages of parabolic.
Every parabolic curve has got to start somewhere.
Could be an inverted parabola. Technically, still parabolic.
I'm sure MillionDollarBonus will be along shortly to explain it all to us.
He's too busy buying Greek debt hand over fist.
"This is not the recovery you were looking for"...."move along"....
Maybe the muppet meant "Paralytic?"
No. The muppet meant 'we won't let facts dictate our narrative'.
If by muppets you mean MSM, then right you are!
Gotta protect "Hope & Change!"
You didn't build that parabola.
The housing recovery is just beyond the right side margin of the chart...as usual.
LVXR-SA - ooof
Las Vegas still struggling to get back 2000 levels
What'd you say, I was guzzling the kool aid
She had a pair of parabolas that could cause cardiac arrest in a yak.
- W. Allen
If we really, really believe; then Tinkerbelle will be able to fly ! All together now; do you really believe !.
Yea, and some autistic dweeb yanked out his mother's "assault" weapons and slaughtered a bunch of teachers and little kids... You mean that kind of fairytale magic?
Jesus! Let me guess, a youtube video?
+ 1 - And every journey ends with a single step.
Clearly. And I get real tired of the calls of "tight supply". When most homeowners are underwater they can't afford to sell. After selling fees and the cost of relocating, there just isn't any financial way homeowners can dump their shitty tract boxes. They just sit under the burden of negative equity. There goes the "wealth effect" for spending as well. It's gonna be a long haul.
Here's the housing recovery -- with 40 million more people than there were then:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
That StLouisFed chart says it all.
I'm thinking that last gray line should be a 1/2" wider at minimum.
It helps too when they are living in their underwater houses and not paying the mortgage for 4 years and counting. Why sell?
wealth effect
Technically, a parabola can be very flat. You just set the focus F at a distance equal to a stack of money $16 Trillion tall. See... parabola.
No...no it's a new metric called the diabolic.
The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic'...
There's never been a better time to lie.
We just need to have a couple more million short sales and most of the excess stock will have been cleared.
"It's not a lie... if you BELIEVE it."
So the guy who bought my foreclosed home to rent it back to me is more screwed than I am?
Sure. You get shelter; he gets increasingly worthless electronic FRN's subject to Bail-Ins....
Here's the thing though...you're referring to the last man(or woman) holding the bag.
Unlike 2004, I bet 90% of buyers today do not plan to do that. Many know damn well what they are getting into. Of course, it's easier said then done and they never know when the music stops. But they know they'll have to exit some day.
The victims, as always, are not the ones preaching about the parabolic rise but the ones buying last...
I don't about others, but majority of people I know that are buying today are the ones that sold before 2007. Some bought back in as early as 2010.
I don't know, some say timing the market is stupid but somehow my stupid friends just make it look easy.
Sigh.....just a lonely ZH'er whining......move on folks
'Round here, it looks like the new for sale signs are popping up faster than new contracts are being written.
Sold in 2007, rented, then the profit used to buy with cash in 2011. Timing, I suppose, but also macro and personal finance analysis. Macroeconomics is my hobby. I have a friend who thinks I have too much time on my hands. Sucker.
Still, young people who can get a loan have no memory of being wiped out. It's very hard to fight that nesting feeling. So, I disagree, because people are not getting smarter, and longer term thinking is being overwhelmed by ADHD and autism.
I guess that's why Fannie and Freddie are now 5years later just decided to give no docs modifications.
/Sarc
The HOUSING recovery positive numbers are strictly for RENTAL units being built.
Just foreign cash buyers propping up the market for the time being
We're blowing real estate bubbles again out here in Silicon Valley.
Just sold my house in two weeks for way over asking, and with multiple offers,
and pocketed close to $100k.
Funny, a year ago, I was under water and trying to get BOA to do a loan mod.
Only in America. I sure am gonna miss the place after it is repossessed and sold as scrap.
!!
I always figured the housing bust would be much like the '29 stock bubble crash...the so called "dumb" money lost theirs in '29, in the crash, while the "smart" money (that rushed in to buy the crashed shares) lost theirs in '32 or '37. Housing market needs eventually to adjust to fact that most people simply do not have the $ to afford the overpricing that sector got used to. Japan's bust housing over 20 year decline.,,attitudes there finally changed, with new generations, that real estate values only decline.
Amazing how around $25 trillion hot fake money can make things look good on the surface.
Wow; a 1,000oz. bar of Silver is only 29,600$; you have a real opportunity there. (intended as a reply to Alan Beekman; I don't understand where these things end up; I'm not exactly a computer programmer).
DHS is a work in progress.
It takes a few seconds to scan your message, your brain, your dog, the contents of your stomach, etc, etc,
The funny thing is, buy local standards, I'm not a tin hat;)
Why did you sell??? Prices are going to go parabolic.
I suspect FED money, in the form of Hedge Funds, is pouring into select markets. In my area(NC), there are many of the same houses sitting on the market for years now. Only cash sales, at 1/2 or more of the tax value, get moved.
98% of mortgages are straight to Fannie/Freddie: which are urgently asking for another Federal bailout. BofA got a new law passed that says that mortgage holders can no longer sue for misconduct/crime by their lender. Yeah, that's healthy.
details or link? some of us try to stay current. Thanks.
before the ink is even dry on the paperwork for home purchase that thing is jammed onto on freddie/fannie's books
To a muppet only inches tall that is parabolic.
Oh you should see what is happening in Florida, the nation's "leading Real Estate indicator" all over again.
Spec developments.
Contractors defaulting.
Foreclosures increasing.
Delinquencies on the rise (gee, with all these $9 per hour jobs Obama created whoulda thunk it?)
And of course, banksters offering NINJA's, 3% down, and other creative bullcrap to totally unqualified applicants so they can pass the bill on to FHA/Fannie/Freddie and stick it to the taxpayers.
In 1926, Florida started the real estate crash preceding the Great Depression. It crashed again in 1934-1936. Welcome back to 1936. Anyone check the charts out for 1937 lately.....
Parabolic Swampland...
Bulldoze it all. You pussies.
Funny comment, but really, why bother? Bulldozing costs money too. With the price of lumber being what it is, why not de-construct?
What heppens when the hedge funds are forced to liquidate?
Technically it all looks fine when they're riding the free money bubble up...bummer trying to pass off the pump to someone else however.
What heppens when the hedge funds are forced to liquidate?
We bail their ass out.
Again.
There are very few "independent hedge funds. Been to the Caymans ever? Check out their post offices and see how many PO Boxes are actually subsidiaries of Federal Reserve members. All hedge funds do by and large is launder money for the Bernank.
I would stop trying to figure out what a parabolic is, and just except that it is an out right lie,
more fraud, more theft, more lawlessness. There is no recovery!
I can't believe that most zerohedgers still do not understand that there is nothing like a market. The market (FED, ECB, stock marketyou and i and everybody in it) forces us to have confidence in a lot of worthlessness (Fiat, CDO, CDS, bonds and similar type of junk). Gold will remain good until there is a visible shortage of resources. Dont waste your time with these graphs man.
Its called strategic default
We will see real home buyers flood in once folks start realizing prices are on the upswing. Combined with shale gas revenue, factories moving to states ... Sorry to rain on ya Tyler but they are wagging the dog now....cant stop this process.
LMFAO obvious troll is obvious.
I'll be the troll's real name is "joe" and he has an Obama or McCain blow up doll to play with.
Happy days are here again!
The skies above are clear again!
So let's sing a song of cheer again!
Happy days are here again!
There's about to be a FLOOD of panicked retail home buyers I tells ya! And price is no object!!
Must....Buy...Another....Bubble...
I have massive knowledge within this industry and can tell you watched some MSM news figure state this.
"Combined with shale gas revenue, factories moving to states...." - Umm The very high decline rates of shale gas wells require continuous inputs of capital—estimated at $42 billion per year to drill more than 7,000 wells—in order to maintain production. In comparison, the value of shale gas produced in 2012 was just $32.5 billion.
(This leaves out the ecological costs and public relations cost for shale drilling)
"We will see real home buyers flood in once folks start realizing prices are on the upswing."
In the equity market they're called dumb money.
In my area, lately, there have been a barrage of radio ads trying to snag anyone who is interested in 'flipping houses' as the latest money making scheme to beat the stagnant economy...
~~~
100% true...
I've heard one by Than somethingorother from TLC's "Flip that house". I've seen the Montelingo dude's infomercial on late night TV. A friend of mine just bought a house to flip. It's 2006 all over again
Props to that fucker BS Benanke for reflating this fucker so fast. He prints so fast, even Gono is amazed...
Yea here too.
no shit SD1...
~~~
I'm not making this up... Here [& I'll qualify this by saying that the 'radio ads' are on 'CLASSIC ROCK' stations, but probably others too}... The ads aren't even subliminal... Instead ~ they actually use the term 'FLIP HOUSES TO MAKE MONEY' as the hook...
UFB
I heard an ad the other day about how there was such a shortage of housing inventory in my area they were trying to encourage current homeowners to list their properties whether those properties were underwater, in foreclosure, or pre-forclosure. The real hook was to let the homeowner know that even if the property needed any type of work to make it more saleable, loans could be provided to pay for the work that needs to be done.
There's a sucker born every minute.
oh boy; that's really sick.
Same here along with the street corner signs and Ugly House buyer billboards (Dallas).
I should start a new LLc. called, 'SFH-Mc Management'. (single family home-rental) is our specialty.
Hedge Funds and Private Equity preferred.
I guess with so many having called for a further 10-20% decline from the lows the fact that many markets are up 20% or more is noteworthy. Here in SWFL the housing market is screaming hot - with the bottom feeders starting to flip their stables of properties at prices as much as 50% higher than what they paid in the gloom of 2010 and 2011 -- will it last who knows
How's employment in that neck of the woods? I still have family in Miami and Orlando but when I left Tampa Bay in 2009 the job market sucked banker balls...where are the gangstas getting the extra loot to start flipping houses again? The bath salt market's tanked over the past year...
funny thing don't ya know, some folks make money on the way down and on the way up
it's the bystanders that get slaughtered
We're all RICH I tell ya! Thanks da Bernank! Let's all go on a home buying spree, money is no object, I reiterate...WE'RE ALL RICH!!
Oh my fuck! The recovery...it's positively PARABOLIC!!
Spot the parabola:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
It's different this time. Or soon will be!
People STILL haven't yet learned real estate is the worst 'investment' you could ever make? It's totaly manipulated, and besides that you never own it. Just see what they do if you're late paying the taxes on the property you 'own'...go ahead.
I don't pay a dime of tax on my 30 condos in Bangkok.
Average monthly "Association Fees" come to a little over $20 on each one.
Ohh and there are gold shops all over town.
That's harder than Where's Waldo
what I am seeing is that the really bad houses went up with the good stuff during the boom. it then went down equally with the bad stuff in the bust. what I am seeing now is that the good stuff is back to close to 2008 levels while the garbage is not selling and prices remain at below 2004 levels.
all of it is inflation caused not syaing any of it is healthy but taking averages in housing does not tell you much.
parabolic = wait for it.
There's never been a better time to re-buy the bubble with a 30 year mortgage with banks paying .01% interest and eager at any minute to just steal all your deposits...they're totaly honest this time I tells ya...sheeple herd PANIC RUSH to the loan officer! What could possibly go wrong? We got 0.56 GDP...economy is smokin.
Fuckin house has been on the market for 8 months and we have just completed our 3rd price lowering. It's a lie. I'm gonna lose thousands when it's all said and done. Prices keep deflating and I bought when they already had plummeted. It's gonna keep going down. At this point just crash the motherfucker. I'm sick of this limping along shit. RESET.
It's fucking rough, not living on 'Unicorn Lane', I/R. If it's any solace? I live on Cul-De-Shit Circle.
You're 10 times smarter any of those [trouser sharks] looking for a quick $. I know you want to get out of Bloomturd Land.
Are you in NJ ?
Once back in 2000 was enough for me. I'm on the left coast, which is a another can of worms in it's own right...
CT(currently)
We are moving to Ohio.
My condolences.
I'm from SE CT (New London County), and my family's there, so I still keep an eye on the real estate in CT and SW RI. I'm very sorry that you are trying to sell there. The same houses have been on the market for years and years now. Asking prices keep dropping and dropping and dropping, slowly, slowly. Except in Westerly, RI, where the stubborn elderly Italians refuse to reduce their prices. Nothing is selling, from what I can see. There are few young people, and no good jobs.
And, my dad (in CT) looks at local real RI estate flyers, and tells me that there are far more foreclosures showing up in the flyers, than I see on the (free parts of the) online foreclosure sites.
What part of CT are you in? What is the price range? Type of town?
Why would there be a need for new mortgages?
You have heard of "Obama-phones"?
Now there are "Obama-houses"! The taxpayers give the poor free houses ... oh wait, we have always done that.
Lots of Hollywood celebs are still selling their properties in LA/Malibu/Santa Monica at considerable losses - sometimes millions of dollars lower than asking price.
If the US housing market was recovering you would be seeing prices rise in these prime real estate areas. Instead, they are apparently dropping.
tawse - Hollywood "celebs" are not getting paid what they used to. Even most "name" actors are only getting 10 to 20% of what they used to get up front. They now get back end points on profits of the film. Studios spreading that risk around.
Movie business getting like music business...all the "big" acts taking big haircuts..
I missed the moral of the story . "Spot The Housing recovery". Need to supply the 'case shiller' code list next time. That chart is like looking for an airport. http://www.caseshiller.fiserv.com/about-fiserv-case-shiller-indexes.aspx
S&P | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices | Americas
Spot the recovery:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv
40 million more people and mort rates 1/2 of what they were then, and we can't even equal the 1980s
Thanks for the link Crash. ;-) That chart was amazing!
The recovery in sales volume reflects the recovery in prices shown in the above graph. First derivative is more important than absolute level.
Since when does 2 pieces of shit become worth more than 4 pieces of shit? In absolute value yes. In tangible (multipied discount) value? Not so much<
The model that's being used is antiquated. How can you have a common denominator, without a primary factor (shadow inventory)?
Reminds me of the inflation adjusted DOW and S&P; losing ground despite "record highs" and the "recovery in housing".
Losing ground as a society, and $8 Trillion deeper in debt.
Post-industrial-service-information economy.
Parasitic debt economy.
Tapeworm economy?
This is an actual comment on the Jim Rogers story running on CNBC.com:
"Rogers, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Max Keiser, Gerald Celente, and all those other nuts can have a camping party in the hills and trade gold bars with each other. The market is booming, stocks and Real Estate are making people gazillions of dollars now. ALL the smart money is going into the Dow and into Real Estate (which is up 37% in the last 3 years) Do not listen to these people, invest in stocks (and on margin if you can), buy Real Estate from a knowledgeable and trustworthy agent, and it's a good time to buy big ticket items as you can finance at very low rates. Rally ON Baby"
I wonder how much message board trolls get paid to spout positive things about the market? I may have to switch careers... MDB, hook me up with a job bro!
Looks good.
Gold has doubled since March 2009. How's that real estate working out for you?
Patience is the greatest of all virtues.
Cato the Elder (234 BC - 149 BC)
Philly Housing Index (index of housing vendors) shows the "housing recovery".
http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-philly-housing-index-closing-061...
A nice run since end of 2011 through 2012. Obviously the Fed had to start owning these shares since no one else did between 2009 and 2011.
Green Shoots! Bullish! Homebuilders will be up another 20% by the end of April. When this whole shebang blows, it is going to be epic.
In the low 200s, Mort Apps are currently at 1997 levels. If they get to the high 200s, they will be at quasi-normal levels over the past 15 years. Starting the graph at 2005 is misleading.
It is what I love about graphs. Mess with the X and Y scales and you can tell any story you want.
Here's a chart of annualized new and existing home sales from 1994 through Sept. 2012:
http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q-U8Xn9GNrQ/UGMlX0C7DrI/AAAAAAAARnE/0x_Y0LQfzL...
Existing home sales are at 1998 levels, and new home sales are at . . . well, it's not on the chart.
Brian Wesbury assures me things are fine so I have no need for your charts.
thanks for the sanity check!
So the Mort Apps graph in the post really does not tell the story......agreed.
Perfectly natural for people to be skiddish about buying houses while civil war is brewing.
Cover the chart right of 2008 and you can clearly spot the bottom.
Just like stocks you have to buy the right ones at the right time. Live in a Cleveland suburb, sorry you're losing at least 20% since 2009. YOU GOTTA GET IN THE HOT MARKETS BROTHA!!!
I guess we can fit 300 million people in Miami. Or maybe we split it up 100 million in Vegas, 100 million in Phoenix, and 100 million in Miami.
We can't fit any into LA because 1 billion Chinese own every property and will be relocating soon.
IMAGINE THE WEALTH EFFECT FROM FLIPPING A HOME 100 MILLION TIMES!!!!
Chinese are going to convert any farmland they have into ghost towns, make huge profits from buying and selling and then they will come to America to do the same. Bullish.
http://ochousingnews.com/news/loan-modification-defaults-soar-24-can-kicking-fails
(ZeroHedge’s:)
Chart Of The Day: Housing Starts - Found In Seasonal Translation... Again
http://pages.citebite.com/d1t2l6x3l0iie
@ 4:90/not back to prior highs for
perhaps 50 years
CNBC/Don’t Get Snookered
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100589622
"Low Fed Rates 'Akin to Price-Fixing':
JPMorgan Strategist"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100572622
This
"Fed's $4 Trillion Question:
Where's the Exit Door?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100569744
"Mortgages’ Future Looks
Too Much Like the Past"
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/24/business/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-and-the-same-old-song.html?ref=business&_r=2&
Can Housing Recover With
Zombie Lenders?; Eisenbeis:
Will Our Children Pay?
by way of muckrack.com, 1/30/2013
http://muckrack.com/link/VrIu/
can-housing-recover-with-zombie-
lenders-eisenbeis-will-our-children-pay
From:
irabankratings.com, 3/12/2013
"A Housing Recovery--Or Bubble?"
of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we
wonder how a housing recovery can
be achieved with the TBTF banks firmly
in control of the US mortgage market.
And we feature a comment by Bob
Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisor's Vice
Chairman and Chief Monetary Economist,
asking whether tomorrow's children will
really pay those benefits that their
parents anticipate today."
(Reference Insert Not From Orig. Form;
URL Present Is For Highlighting Source)
"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bubble-begins-pop
"...while it’s true that the data don’t lie,
it’s also true that there’s more in the
data than meets the eye. For example,
did you know that there are currently
9.8 million vacant housing units in the
US, but only 1.74 million of those homes
are listed for sale on the MLS? That’s
less than 20 percent of the total.
So where did the rest of the homes go?
Did they just vanish into the ether
or are they being kept off the market
http://pages.citebite.com/f1n1r8m6s3uyp
for some other reason, like to keep
prices artificially high?..."
Mike Whitney, Counterpunch, 3/8/2013
http://pages.citebite.com/u1a1f8r6h4hgl
Must Sell Shadow Inventory Has Morphed
Into Can’t Sell Cloud Inventory
Must Sell Shadow Inventory Has Morphed Into Can't Sell Cloud Inventory
http://ochousingnews.com/news/must-sell-shadow-inventory-has-morphed-into-cant-sell-cloud-inventory
U.S. Banks Still Exposed To $1 Trillion
In Unsecured Mortgage Debt
U.S. Banks Still Exposed To $1 Trillion In Unsecured Mortgage Debt
http://ochousingnews.com/news/banks-are-still-exposed-to-1-trillion-in-unsecured-mortgage-deb
Highlight From Banks Still Exposed To $1
Trillion In Unsecured Mortgages
Highlight From Banks Are Still Exposed To $1 Trillion In Unsecured Mortgages
http://pages.citebite.com/d1a2r1o3g9fmw
Loan Mod Defaults Soar, Can-Kicking Fails
Loan Mod Defaults Soar, Can-Kicking Fails
http://ochousingnews.com/news/loan-modification-defaults-soar-24-can-kicking-fails
Bailouts And False Hopes
Bailouts And False Hopes
http://ochousingnews.com/news/bailouts-and-false-hopes
Contrary To Media Spin, Mortgage
Delinquencies Are Trending Higher
Contrary To Media Spin, Mortgage Delinquencies Are Trending Higher
http://ochousingnews.com/news/contrary-to-media-spin-mortgage-delinquencies-are-trending-higher
Banks Go All In Betting On Success
Of Loan Mods
Banks Go All In Betting On Success Of Loan Mods
http://ochousingnews.com/news/banks-go-all-in-betting-on-success-of-loan-modifications
Low Housing Inventory’s An Indicator
Of Residual Mortgage Distress
Low Housing Inventory Is An Indicator Of Residual Housing Distress
http://ochousingnews.com/news/low-housing-inventory-indicator-of-residual-mortgage-distress
BUNDLE
http://www.multiurl.com/ga/Can_An_Unsuccessful_Bailout_Of_Folly_Be_Worse_Than_The_Original_
Can An Unsuccessful Bailout Of
Folly Be Worse Than The Original Folly?
Menendez, Boxer Plan Bill To
Transfer Bank Losses To US Taxpayer
http://ochousingnews.com/news/
menendez-boxer-plan-bill-to-transfer-
bank-losses-to-us-taxpayer
http://sdhousingnews.com/east-county/bonita/the-move-up-market-will-suffer-for-another-decade
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/house-prices-nowhere-near-bottom-says-analyst-125114464.html
("look at price per sq ft, not Case Shiller")
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/cheap-money-era-that-saved-u-s-housing-seen-bottoming.html
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/cheap-money-era-that-saved-u-s-housing-seen-bottoming.html
http://pages.citebite.com/x9a6m4p0hnwb
http://pages.citebite.com/c9h6f4a1cgih
http://ochousingnews.com/news/delinquent-jumbo-loans-in-coastal-california-pollute-bank-balance-sheets
http://pages.citebite.com/x8e7h5d8tlyj
http://pages.citebite.com/b8i3v2s7trsw
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-05/16-reasons-why-david-rosenbergs-not-buying-employment-report
http://pages.citebite.com/x9q8y7k1vqta
Next bubble's seeds being sowed in bailing out the last one. Today's grandchildren
will be bailing the banks now.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-money-down-home-loans-are-back-2013-02-01
@3:30:
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/house-prices-nowhere-near-bottom-says-analyst-125114464.html
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/house-prices-nowhere-near-bottom-says-analyst-125114464.html
http://pages.citebite.com/y9b2m0d5frpp
PRICE DISPERSION (ESSENCE OF THE ILLUSION)
http://pages.citebite.com/p4v3h4u5ukuk
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-10/mysterious-case-americas-negative-real-wage-growth
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bond-bubble-bigger-catastrophe-real-estate-bust-casey-161402082.html
http://pages.citebite.com/x9a6m4p0hnwb
http://pages.citebite.com/c9h6f4a1cgih
ttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-30/shrinkage-us-economy-declined-01-q4
http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs130116.cfm
(Dallas Fed: End TBTF)
http://www.aol.com/video/gary-shilling-on-the-housing-market/517141434/
Bullish Hoopla In Housing Is Driven By Bogus Inventory Reports
http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/07/16/the-great-housing-swindle-shadow-reo-artificially-boosting-prices/
http://ochousingnews.com/news/delinquent-jumbo-loans-in-coastal-california-pollute-bank-balance-sheets
http://pages.citebite.com/x9a6m4p0hnwb
http://pages.citebite.com/c9h6f4a1cgih
http://pages.citebite.com/x9q8y7k1vqta
http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/01/04/the-curious-predictability-of-the-payrolls-report/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEqkO_GENHA
(Video--Gary Shilling On The
Housing Market)
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bond-bubble-bigger-catastrophe-real-estate-bust-casey-161402082.html
(Video)
Low Housing Inventory’s An Indicator
Of Residual Mortgage Distress
Low Housing Inventory Is An Indicator Of Residual Housing Distress
http://ochousingnews.com/news/low-housing-inventory-indicator-of-residual-mortgage-distress
"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bubble-begins-pop http://caliscreaming.com/2012/10/30/where-is-the-shadow-inventory-right-... Sorry for any duplications. There's actually aso much factual basis for bearishness it's rather unwieldy.Wow.
yep...wow...now all we need is a lead article that summarizes the main points in <1500 words with a further summary ..PLUS...we need someone to sue the ministry of prop(the market)aganda - CNBC, for advising its client base in a grossly misleading way that is, in fact, malfeasance and a breach of its charter as a news site.
Thank you, splendid article.
I thought it was strange (these are strange times): Cyprus banks (bankrupt) sells their Greek branches (bankrupt) to Greek banks (bankrupt), all using EU tax money.
Now I get it: that was the ultimate trick to get billions out of Cyprus. Who profited (the most, I mean, not the Cypriotic middle man, not the Greek middle man)? Anyway, it was very well done!
Transfer a bank (extremely leveraged) to another bank in a country without capital restrictions and no retributions, and you effectively transfer a multitude. More Uniastrum s around? (see elsewhere on ZH)
its a lot worse than that.
yanno..they were given a loan of 10 billion if they put 6 billion down on a 16 billion euro "asset"..the russians lent the money without "strings", just a helping hand until the half of cyprus that is greek and not turkish gets it hands on gas fields...that don't belong to turkey, israel or egypt that is
I see the recovery! I see it! Sorry, it was just a fly on my screen.
Looks like the market started heading upwards pretty stronglysince 2012. Why don't you show a logarithmic graph showing year over year price gains. It looks like we would be clearly in the positive territory.
These articles are strawman BS.
States prices are back only to 2004 levels.
Charts only go back to 2005.
Look, if you've not got access to a better chart, then don't write the article.
errr...the charts start from 31 dec 2004? do you mean "since 2004" means the charts shoudl have started from 31 dec 2003?
chinese are buying without getting any loans. They pay CASH!!!. I know people buying multimillion dollar houses. They all pay CASH.
Go to Rowland Height in CA. You will see what I mean.
Since the American government is stupid enough to allow it, the Chinese are wise to buy American real estate. In the long run it's more valuable than all of that Treasury toilet paper they would be stuck with.
Here's how it works in Silicon Valley: A Chinese person buys a $1.4 million house with cash (that he has taken illegally out of China). Buying with cash gives him an edge in the bidding process. After the closing, he takes out a mortage on the house, and extracts the cash. He lends the cash to Chinese person #2, who buys a house using that cash. Then, Chinese person $2 takes out a mortgage, extracts the cash, and lends it to - Chinese person #3!!!!
Fortunately for one's sense of justice, these idiots are going to be way-pverpaying in the long run. However, in the short run, I suppose that getting out of the corrupt and polluted girl-baby-killing s***-hole of China may be worth it.
It might be parabolic, but is it "granular"? Jamie Dimon wants to know.
All kidding aside, unless it's productive farmland I wouldn't touch real estate until prices come down another 80%, as they're likely to after the great reset. Gold and silver are where it's at right now. And this is not investment advice.
Free Jon Corzine! Oh, no, wait.....
Did you know the AVERAGE LTV for an FHA mortgage was 96%, and the average DTI was 41?
As the FHA withdraws from the market (another rate hike happening Monday) the market will soften.
Heard these recently:
"Other landlords used to laugh at me for renting to disabled people. Now their tenants are out of work and months behind on rent, while mine are still paying."
"Yes, we accept Section 8. In fact, we prefer it, because the rent gets paid on time."
And you fools are bearish on housing!
Why do people think bubble is normal?
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MORTG
if the rate on the 30 year mortage went back to 7% which was the norm before Bubble bothers Alan and Ben, it would increase the monthly payment on a fixed rate 30 year mortgage by almost 50%.
There are houses near me that are vacant now for 3+ years. Most have been trashed by assholes looking for something valuable. But no "For Sale" signs on any of them. Tight must refer to just cherry picked areas.