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Spot The Housing Recovery

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic' so we decided to go in search of this mystical anecdotal surge that is so often heard on the airwaves of the preachers. It turns out, the recovery (if that's what you want to call it) is not so much. Just as in Europe, it seems if we repeat the same lie (or hope) often enough, it may just come true. So it is in the US. Headlines crow of YoY gains and ad hoc surges (Vegas and Silicon Valley) but if you dig down just an inch or two into the real data, the housing 'recovery' is the little train that isn't. As Bloomberg notes, regional home prices have recovered to only 2004 levels and while the REO-to-Rent model remains for the late-to-the-gamers, it is inevitably a self-destroying bubble if there is no organic growth and one glance at the rate of mortgage applications ('real' buyers) says all we need to know about the housing 'recovery'.

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

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Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386875 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Admittedly we are only in the early stages of parabolic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:50 | 3386935 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Every parabolic curve has got to start somewhere.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:00 | 3386973 Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

Could be an inverted parabola.  Technically, still parabolic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:07 | 3386991 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

I'm sure MillionDollarBonus will be along shortly to explain it all to us.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:13 | 3387002 rockraider3
rockraider3's picture

He's too busy buying Greek debt hand over fist.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:16 | 3387008 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

"This is not the recovery you were looking for"...."move along"....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:57 | 3387122 This just in
This just in's picture

Maybe the muppet meant "Paralytic?"

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:09 | 3387140 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

No. The muppet meant 'we won't let facts dictate our narrative'.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 23:47 | 3387737 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

If by muppets you mean MSM, then right you are!

Gotta protect "Hope & Change!"

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:16 | 3387784 flacon
flacon's picture

You didn't build that parabola. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:59 | 3387125 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The housing recovery is just beyond the right side margin of the chart...as usual.    

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:08 | 3386995 Stackers
Stackers's picture

LVXR-SA - ooof

Las Vegas still struggling to get back 2000 levels

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:48 | 3387392 max2205
max2205's picture

What'd you say, I was guzzling the kool aid

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:41 | 3387520 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

She had a pair of parabolas that could cause cardiac arrest in a yak.

- W. Allen

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:39 | 3387075 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

If we really, really believe; then Tinkerbelle will be able to fly ! All together now; do you really believe !.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:59 | 3387128 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Yea, and some autistic dweeb yanked out his mother's "assault" weapons and slaughtered a bunch of teachers and little kids... You mean that kind of fairytale magic?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:40 | 3387518 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Jesus! Let me guess, a youtube video?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:40 | 3387512 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

+ 1 - And every journey ends with a single step.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:52 | 3386944 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Clearly.  And I get real tired of the calls of "tight supply".  When most homeowners are underwater they can't afford to sell.  After selling fees and the cost of relocating, there just isn't any financial way homeowners can dump their shitty tract boxes.  They just sit under the burden of negative equity.  There goes the "wealth effect" for spending as well.  It's gonna be a long haul.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:26 | 3387036 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Here's the housing recovery -- with 40 million more people than there were then:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:53 | 3387238 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

That StLouisFed chart says it all. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:36 | 3387509 pursueliberty
pursueliberty's picture

I'm thinking that last gray line should be a 1/2" wider at minimum.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 22:45 | 3387647 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

It helps too when they are living in their underwater houses and not paying the mortgage for 4 years and counting.  Why sell?

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 07:44 | 3388039 ATM
ATM's picture

wealth effect

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:55 | 3386953 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Technically, a parabola can be very flat.  You just set the focus F at a distance equal to a stack of money $16 Trillion tall.  See... parabola.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 06:24 | 3387996 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

No...no it's a new metric called the diabolic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386876 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic'...

There's never been a better time to lie.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:51 | 3386936 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

We just need to have a couple more million short sales and most of the excess stock will have been cleared.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 01:32 | 3387852 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

"It's not a lie... if you BELIEVE it."

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386882 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

So the guy who bought my foreclosed home to rent it back to me is more screwed than I am?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:47 | 3386926 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Sure.  You get shelter; he gets increasingly worthless electronic FRN's subject to Bail-Ins....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:08 | 3387139 kalasend
kalasend's picture

Here's the thing though...you're referring to the last man(or woman) holding the bag.

Unlike 2004, I bet 90% of buyers today do not plan to do that. Many know damn well what they are getting into. Of course, it's easier said then done and they never know when the music stops. But they know they'll have to exit some day.

The victims, as always, are not the ones preaching about the parabolic rise but the ones buying last...

I don't about others, but majority of people I know that are buying today are the ones that sold before 2007. Some bought back in as early as 2010. 

I don't know, some say timing the market is stupid but somehow my stupid friends just make it look easy. 

Sigh.....just a lonely ZH'er whining......move on folks

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:01 | 3387418 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

'Round here, it looks like the new for sale signs are popping up faster than new contracts are being written.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 12:36 | 3388664 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Sold in 2007, rented, then the profit used to buy with cash in 2011. Timing, I suppose, but also macro and personal finance analysis. Macroeconomics is my hobby. I have a friend who thinks I have too much time on my hands. Sucker.

Still, young people who can get a loan have no memory of being wiped out. It's very hard to fight that nesting feeling. So, I disagree, because people are not getting smarter, and longer term thinking is being overwhelmed by ADHD and autism.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386883 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I guess that's why Fannie and Freddie are now 5years later just decided to give no docs modifications.

/Sarc

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:52 | 3386945 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The HOUSING recovery positive numbers are strictly for RENTAL units being built.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 02:40 | 3387884 PC Load Letter
PC Load Letter's picture

Just foreign cash buyers propping up the market for the time being

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:39 | 3386886 ALANBEEKMAN
ALANBEEKMAN's picture

We're blowing real estate bubbles again out here in Silicon Valley.

Just sold my house in two weeks for way over asking, and with multiple offers,

and pocketed close to $100k.

Funny, a year ago, I was under water and trying to get BOA to do a loan mod.

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:57 | 3386960 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Only in America. I sure am gonna miss the place after it is repossessed and sold as scrap.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:40 | 3387080 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:04 | 3386982 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

I always figured the housing bust would be much like the '29 stock bubble crash...the so called "dumb" money lost theirs in '29, in the crash, while the "smart" money (that rushed in to buy the crashed shares) lost theirs in '32 or '37.  Housing market needs eventually to adjust to fact that most people simply do not have the $ to afford the overpricing that sector got used to.  Japan's bust housing over 20 year decline.,,attitudes there finally changed, with new generations, that real estate values only decline.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:07 | 3386990 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Amazing how around $25 trillion hot fake money can make things look good on the surface.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:43 | 3387087 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Wow; a 1,000oz. bar of Silver is only 29,600$; you have a real opportunity there. (intended as a reply to Alan Beekman; I don't understand where these things end up; I'm not exactly a computer programmer).

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:33 | 3387193 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

DHS is a work in progress.

It takes a few seconds to scan your message, your brain, your dog, the contents of your stomach, etc, etc,

The funny thing is, buy local standards, I'm not a tin hat;)

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:09 | 3387777 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Why did you sell??? Prices are going to go parabolic.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 15:28 | 3389191 daveO
daveO's picture

I suspect FED money, in the form of Hedge Funds, is pouring into select markets. In my area(NC), there are many of the same houses sitting on the market for years now. Only cash sales, at 1/2 or more of the tax value, get moved.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:38 | 3386889 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

98% of mortgages are straight to Fannie/Freddie: which are urgently asking for another Federal bailout. BofA got a new law passed that says that mortgage holders can no longer sue for misconduct/crime by their lender. Yeah, that's healthy.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:34 | 3387197 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

details or link?  some of us try to stay current.  Thanks.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:55 | 3387407 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

before the ink is even dry on the paperwork for home purchase that thing is jammed onto on freddie/fannie's books

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:40 | 3386896 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

To a muppet only inches tall that is parabolic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:42 | 3386900 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

Oh you should see what is happening in Florida, the nation's "leading Real Estate indicator" all over again.

 

Spec developments.

Contractors defaulting.

Foreclosures increasing.

Delinquencies on the rise (gee, with all these $9 per hour jobs Obama created whoulda thunk it?)

And of course, banksters offering NINJA's, 3% down, and other creative bullcrap to totally unqualified applicants so they can pass the bill on to FHA/Fannie/Freddie and stick it to the taxpayers.

In 1926, Florida started the real estate crash preceding the Great Depression. It crashed again in 1934-1936. Welcome back to 1936. Anyone check the charts out for 1937 lately.....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:49 | 3386933 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Parabolic Swampland...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:42 | 3386901 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

Bulldoze it all. You pussies.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 12:40 | 3388675 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Funny comment, but really, why bother? Bulldozing costs money too. With the price of lumber being what it is, why not de-construct?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:42 | 3386903 q99x2
q99x2's picture

What heppens when the hedge funds are forced to liquidate?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:55 | 3386954 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Technically it all looks fine when they're riding the free money bubble up...bummer trying to pass off the pump to someone else however.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:44 | 3387093 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

What heppens when the hedge funds are forced to liquidate?

 

We bail their ass out.

 

Again.

 

There are very few "independent hedge funds. Been to the Caymans ever? Check out their post offices and see how many PO Boxes are actually subsidiaries of Federal Reserve members. All hedge funds do by and large is launder money for the Bernank.

 

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:42 | 3386905 Mr. Fix
Mr. Fix's picture

I would stop trying to figure out what a parabolic is, and just except that it is an out right lie,

 more fraud,  more theft, more lawlessness. There is no recovery!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:43 | 3386907 Herbman
Herbman's picture

I can't believe that most zerohedgers still do not understand that there is nothing like a market. The market (FED, ECB, stock marketyou and i and everybody in it) forces us to have confidence in a lot of worthlessness (Fiat, CDO, CDS, bonds and similar type of junk). Gold will remain good until there is a visible shortage of resources. Dont waste your time with these graphs man. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:44 | 3386910 ghandi
ghandi's picture

Its called strategic default

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:44 | 3386914 JJSF
JJSF's picture

We will see real home buyers flood in once folks start realizing prices are on the upswing. Combined with shale gas revenue, factories moving to states ... Sorry to rain on ya Tyler but they are wagging the dog now....cant stop this process.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:51 | 3386941 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

LMFAO obvious troll is obvious.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:12 | 3387454 johngaltfla
johngaltfla's picture

I'll be the troll's real name is "joe" and he has an Obama or McCain blow up doll to play with.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:58 | 3386965 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Happy days are here again!

The skies above are clear again!

So let's sing a song of cheer again!

Happy days are here again!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:00 | 3386972 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There's about to be a FLOOD of panicked retail home buyers I tells ya! And price is no object!! 

Must....Buy...Another....Bubble...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:03 | 3386980 denverdolomte
denverdolomte's picture

I have massive knowledge within this industry and can tell you watched some MSM news figure state this.

"Combined with shale gas revenue, factories moving to states...." - Umm The very high decline rates of shale gas wells require continuous inputs of capital—estimated at $42 billion per year to drill more than 7,000 wells—in order to maintain production. In comparison, the value of shale gas produced in 2012 was just $32.5 billion.
(This leaves out the ecological costs and public relations cost for shale drilling)

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:14 | 3387156 prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture

"We will see real home buyers flood in once folks start realizing prices are on the upswing."

In the equity market they're called dumb money.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:46 | 3386917 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

In my area, lately, there have been a barrage of radio ads trying to snag anyone who is interested in 'flipping houses' as the latest money making scheme to beat the stagnant economy...

~~~

100% true...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:53 | 3386951 ghengis86
ghengis86's picture

I've heard one by Than somethingorother from TLC's "Flip that house". I've seen the Montelingo dude's infomercial on late night TV. A friend of mine just bought a house to flip. It's 2006 all over again

Props to that fucker BS Benanke for reflating this fucker so fast. He prints so fast, even Gono is amazed...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:55 | 3386957 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea here too.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:04 | 3387135 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

no shit SD1...

~~~

I'm not making this up... Here [& I'll qualify this by saying that the 'radio ads' are on 'CLASSIC ROCK' stations, but probably others too}... The ads aren't even subliminal... Instead ~ they actually use the term 'FLIP HOUSES TO MAKE MONEY' as the hook...

UFB

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 22:11 | 3387577 Pure Evil
Pure Evil's picture

I heard an ad the other day about how there was such a shortage of housing inventory in my area they were trying to encourage current homeowners to list their properties whether those properties were underwater, in foreclosure, or pre-forclosure. The real hook was to let the homeowner know that even if the property needed any type of work to make it more saleable, loans could be provided to pay for the work that needs to be done.

There's a sucker born every minute.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:47 | 3387097 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

oh boy; that's really sick.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:57 | 3387121 Blano
Blano's picture

Same here along with the street corner signs and Ugly House buyer billboards (Dallas).

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:46 | 3386922 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

      I should start a new LLc. called, 'SFH-Mc Management'.  (single family home-rental) is our specialty.

      Hedge Funds and Private Equity preferred.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:49 | 3386924 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

I guess with so many having called for a further 10-20% decline from the lows the fact that many markets are up 20% or more is noteworthy.  Here in SWFL the housing market is screaming hot - with the bottom feeders starting to flip their stables of properties at prices as much as 50% higher than what they paid in the gloom of 2010 and 2011 -- will it last who knows

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:55 | 3386955 A. Magnus
A. Magnus's picture

How's employment in that neck of the woods? I still have family in Miami and Orlando but when I left Tampa Bay in 2009 the job market sucked banker balls...where are the gangstas getting the extra loot to start flipping houses again? The bath salt market's tanked over the past year...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 22:12 | 3387579 Zer0head
Zer0head's picture

funny thing don't ya know, some folks make money on the way down and on the way up

it's the bystanders that get slaughtered

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:56 | 3386963 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

We're all RICH I tell ya! Thanks da Bernank! Let's all go on a home buying spree, money is no object, I reiterate...WE'RE ALL RICH!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:51 | 3386940 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Oh my fuck! The recovery...it's positively PARABOLIC!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:28 | 3387048 CrashisOptimistic
Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:56 | 3386961 syntaxterror
syntaxterror's picture

It's different this time. Or soon will be!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:58 | 3386966 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

People STILL haven't yet learned real estate is the worst 'investment' you could ever make? It's totaly manipulated, and besides that you never own it. Just see what they do if you're late paying the taxes on the property you 'own'...go ahead.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 13:41 | 3388861 Minburi
Minburi's picture

I don't pay a dime of tax on my 30 condos in Bangkok.

Average monthly "Association Fees" come to a little over $20 on each one.

Ohh and there are gold shops all over town.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:58 | 3386969 natronic
natronic's picture

That's harder than Where's Waldo

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:58 | 3386970 riphowardkatz
riphowardkatz's picture

what I am seeing is that the really bad houses went up with the good stuff during the boom. it then went down equally with the bad stuff in the bust. what I am seeing now is that the good stuff is back to close to 2008 levels while the garbage is not selling and prices remain at below 2004 levels. 

all of it is inflation caused not syaing any of it is healthy but taking averages in housing does not tell you much. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:00 | 3386974 little buddy bu...
little buddy buys the dips's picture

parabolic = wait for it.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:04 | 3386977 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

There's never been a better time to re-buy the bubble with a 30 year mortgage with banks paying .01% interest and eager at any minute to just steal all your deposits...they're totaly honest this time I tells ya...sheeple herd PANIC RUSH to the loan officer! What could possibly go wrong? We got 0.56 GDP...economy is smokin.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:08 | 3386992 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Fuckin house has been on the market for 8 months and we have just completed our 3rd price lowering. It's a lie. I'm gonna lose thousands when it's all said and done. Prices keep deflating and I bought when they already had plummeted. It's gonna keep going down. At this point just crash the motherfucker. I'm sick of this limping along shit. RESET.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:36 | 3387063 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    It's fucking rough, not living on 'Unicorn Lane',  I/R.    If it's any solace? I live on Cul-De-Shit Circle.

 You're 10 times smarter any of those [trouser sharks] looking for a quick $.  I know you want to get out of Bloomturd Land.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:36 | 3387067 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

Are you in NJ ?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:53 | 3387113 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Once back in 2000 was enough for me. I'm on the left coast, which is a another can of worms in it's own right...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:18 | 3387472 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

CT(currently)
We are moving to Ohio.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 01:38 | 3387857 kareninca
kareninca's picture

My condolences.

I'm from SE CT (New London County), and my family's there, so I still keep an eye on the real estate in CT and SW RI.  I'm very sorry that you are trying to sell there.  The same houses have been on the market for years and years now.  Asking prices keep dropping and dropping and dropping, slowly, slowly.  Except in Westerly, RI, where the stubborn elderly Italians refuse to reduce their prices.  Nothing is selling, from what I can see.  There are few young people, and no good jobs.

And, my dad (in CT) looks at local real RI estate flyers, and tells me that there are far more foreclosures showing up in the flyers, than I see on the (free parts of the) online foreclosure sites.

What part of CT are you in?  What is the price range?  Type of town?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:09 | 3386994 IamtheREALmario
IamtheREALmario's picture

Why would there be a need for new mortgages?

You have heard of "Obama-phones"?

Now there are "Obama-houses"! The taxpayers give the poor free houses ... oh wait, we have always done that.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:10 | 3386996 tawse57
tawse57's picture

Lots of Hollywood celebs are still selling their properties in LA/Malibu/Santa Monica at considerable losses - sometimes millions of dollars lower than asking price.

If the US housing market was recovering you would be seeing prices rise in these prime real estate areas. Instead, they are apparently dropping.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 11:57 | 3388592 Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

tawse - Hollywood "celebs" are not getting paid what they used to. Even most "name" actors are only getting 10 to 20% of what they used to get up front. They now get back end points on profits of the film. Studios spreading that risk around.

Movie business getting like music business...all the "big" acts taking big haircuts..

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:23 | 3386997 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I missed the moral of the story . "Spot The Housing recovery".  Need to supply the 'case shiller' code list next time. That chart is like looking for an airport.  http://www.caseshiller.fiserv.com/about-fiserv-case-shiller-indexes.aspx

                                       S&P | S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices | Americas

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:31 | 3387053 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Spot the recovery:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

40 million more people and mort rates 1/2 of what they were then, and we can't even equal the 1980s

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:38 | 3387068 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Thanks for the link Crash. ;-)   That chart was amazing!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:57 | 3387250 juggalo1
juggalo1's picture

The recovery in sales volume reflects the recovery in prices shown in the above graph.  First derivative is more important than absolute level.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:12 | 3387274 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Since when does 2 pieces of shit become worth more than 4 pieces of shit? In absolute value yes. In tangible (multipied discount) value?  Not so much<  

   The model that's being used is antiquated. How can you have a common denominator, without a primary factor (shadow inventory)?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:13 | 3387004 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Reminds me of the inflation adjusted DOW and S&P; losing ground despite "record highs" and the "recovery in housing".

Losing ground as a society, and $8 Trillion deeper in debt.

Post-industrial-service-information economy.

Parasitic debt economy.

Tapeworm economy?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:16 | 3387009 vulcanraven
vulcanraven's picture

This is an actual comment on the Jim Rogers story running on CNBC.com:

 

"Rogers, Peter Schiff, Marc Faber, Max Keiser, Gerald Celente, and all those other nuts can have a camping party in the hills and trade gold bars with each other. The market is booming, stocks and Real Estate are making people gazillions of dollars now. ALL the smart money is going into the Dow and into Real Estate (which is up 37% in the last 3 years) Do not listen to these people, invest in stocks (and on margin if you can), buy Real Estate from a knowledgeable and trustworthy agent, and it's a good time to buy big ticket items as you can finance at very low rates. Rally ON Baby"

 

I wonder how much message board trolls get paid to spout positive things about the market? I may have to switch careers... MDB, hook me up with a job bro!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:16 | 3387011 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

Looks good.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:25 | 3387034 Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture

Gold has doubled since March 2009. How's that real estate working out for you?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:27 | 3387042 100pcDredge
100pcDredge's picture

Patience is the greatest of all virtues.

Cato the Elder (234 BC - 149 BC)

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:41 | 3387085 orangegeek
orangegeek's picture

Philly Housing Index (index of housing vendors) shows the "housing recovery". 

 

http://bullandbearmash.com/chart/weekly-philly-housing-index-closing-061...

 

A nice run since end of 2011 through 2012.  Obviously the Fed had to start owning these shares since no one else did between 2009 and 2011.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:48 | 3387099 teamr2
teamr2's picture

Green Shoots! Bullish! Homebuilders will be up another 20% by the end of April. When this whole shebang blows, it is going to be epic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:49 | 3387103 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

In the low 200s, Mort Apps are currently at 1997 levels.  If they get to the high 200s, they will be at quasi-normal levels over the past 15 years.  Starting the graph at 2005 is misleading.  

It is what I love about graphs.  Mess with the X and Y scales and you can tell any story you want.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:16 | 3387160 AynRandFan
AynRandFan's picture

Here's a chart of annualized new and existing home sales from 1994 through Sept. 2012:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Q-U8Xn9GNrQ/UGMlX0C7DrI/AAAAAAAARnE/0x_Y0LQfzL...

Existing home sales are at 1998 levels, and new home sales are at . . . well, it's not on the chart.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:54 | 3387243 CvlDobd
CvlDobd's picture

Brian Wesbury assures me things are fine so I have no need for your charts.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:18 | 3387789 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

thanks for the sanity check!

Tue, 04/02/2013 - 14:19 | 3400334 Bob Sacamano
Bob Sacamano's picture

So the Mort Apps graph in the post really does not tell the story......agreed.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:52 | 3387112 gwar5
gwar5's picture

Perfectly natural for people to be skiddish about buying houses while civil war is brewing.  

 

 

 

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:11 | 3387149 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Cover the chart right of 2008 and you can clearly spot the bottom.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:15 | 3387161 adr
adr's picture

Just like stocks you have to buy the right ones at the right time. Live in a Cleveland suburb, sorry you're losing at least 20% since 2009. YOU GOTTA GET IN THE HOT MARKETS BROTHA!!!

I guess we can fit 300 million people in Miami. Or maybe we split it up 100 million in Vegas, 100 million in Phoenix, and 100 million in Miami.

We can't fit any into LA because 1 billion Chinese own every property and will be relocating soon.

IMAGINE THE WEALTH EFFECT FROM FLIPPING A HOME 100 MILLION TIMES!!!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:46 | 3387225 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Chinese are going to convert any farmland they have into ghost towns, make huge profits from buying and selling and then they will come to America to do the same. Bullish.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:28 | 3387186 evernewecon
evernewecon's picture

 

 

 

 

 

 


http://ochousingnews.com/news/loan-modification-defaults-soar-24-can-kicking-fails
 
 

(ZeroHedge’s:)

Chart Of The Day: Housing Starts - Found In Seasonal Translation... Again

http://pages.citebite.com/d1t2l6x3l0iie 

 
 
 
 
 

@ 4:90/not back to prior highs for

perhaps 50 years

CNBC/Don’t Get Snookered

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100589622 

 
 

"Low Fed Rates 'Akin to Price-Fixing':

JPMorgan Strategist"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100572622 

This

"Fed's $4 Trillion Question:

Where's the Exit Door?"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100569744

"Mortgages’ Future Looks

Too Much Like the Past"

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/24/business/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-and-the-same-old-song.html?ref=business&_r=2&

Can Housing Recover With

Zombie Lenders?; Eisenbeis:

Will Our Children Pay?

by way of muckrack.com, 1/30/2013

http://muckrack.com/link/VrIu/

can-housing-recover-with-zombie-

lenders-eisenbeis-will-our-children-pay

From:

irabankratings.com, 3/12/2013

"A Housing Recovery--Or Bubble?"

of The Institutional Risk Analyst, we

wonder how a housing recovery can

be achieved with the TBTF banks firmly

in control of the US  mortgage market.

And we feature a comment by Bob

Eisenbeis, Cumberland Advisor's Vice

Chairman and Chief Monetary Economist,

asking whether tomorrow's children will

really pay those benefits that their

parents anticipate today."

(Reference Insert Not From Orig. Form;

URL Present Is For Highlighting Source)

"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bubble-begins-pop







"...while it’s true that the data don’t lie,

it’s also true that there’s more in the

data than meets the eye. For example,

did you know that there are currently

9.8 million vacant housing units in the

US, but only 1.74 million of those homes

are listed for sale on the MLS? That’s

less than 20 percent of the total.

So where did the rest of the homes go?

Did they just vanish into the ether

or are they being kept off the market


http://pages.citebite.com/f1n1r8m6s3uyp

for some other reason, like to keep

prices artificially high?..."

Mike Whitney, Counterpunch, 3/8/2013



http://pages.citebite.com/u1a1f8r6h4hgl








Must Sell Shadow Inventory Has Morphed

Into Can’t Sell Cloud Inventory

Must Sell Shadow Inventory Has Morphed Into Can't Sell Cloud Inventory

http://ochousingnews.com/news/must-sell-shadow-inventory-has-morphed-into-cant-sell-cloud-inventory




U.S. Banks Still Exposed To $1 Trillion

In Unsecured Mortgage Debt

U.S. Banks Still Exposed To $1 Trillion In Unsecured Mortgage Debt

http://ochousingnews.com/news/banks-are-still-exposed-to-1-trillion-in-unsecured-mortgage-deb








Highlight From Banks Still Exposed To $1

Trillion In Unsecured Mortgages

Highlight From Banks Are Still Exposed To $1 Trillion In Unsecured Mortgages

http://pages.citebite.com/d1a2r1o3g9fmw



Loan Mod Defaults Soar, Can-Kicking Fails

Loan Mod Defaults Soar, Can-Kicking Fails

http://ochousingnews.com/news/loan-modification-defaults-soar-24-can-kicking-fails




Bailouts And False Hopes

Bailouts And False Hopes

http://ochousingnews.com/news/bailouts-and-false-hopes





Contrary To Media Spin, Mortgage

Delinquencies Are Trending Higher

Contrary To Media Spin, Mortgage Delinquencies Are Trending Higher

http://ochousingnews.com/news/contrary-to-media-spin-mortgage-delinquencies-are-trending-higher




Banks Go All In Betting On Success

Of Loan Mods

Banks Go All In Betting On Success Of Loan Mods

http://ochousingnews.com/news/banks-go-all-in-betting-on-success-of-loan-modifications





Low Housing Inventory’s An Indicator

Of Residual Mortgage Distress

Low Housing Inventory Is An Indicator Of Residual Housing Distress


http://ochousingnews.com/news/low-housing-inventory-indicator-of-residual-mortgage-distress



BUNDLE

http://www.multiurl.com/ga/Can_An_Unsuccessful_Bailout_Of_Folly_Be_Worse_Than_The_Original_


Can An Unsuccessful Bailout Of

Folly Be Worse Than The Original Folly?




Menendez, Boxer Plan Bill To

Transfer Bank Losses To US Taxpayer


http://ochousingnews.com/news/

menendez-boxer-plan-bill-to-transfer-

bank-losses-to-us-taxpayer

 

 

 

http://sdhousingnews.com/east-county/bonita/the-move-up-market-will-suffer-for-another-decade






http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/house-prices-nowhere-near-bottom-says-analyst-125114464.html


("look at price per sq ft, not Case Shiller")

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/cheap-money-era-that-saved-u-s-housing-seen-bottoming.html





http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-07/cheap-money-era-that-saved-u-s-housing-seen-bottoming.html





http://pages.citebite.com/x9a6m4p0hnwb




http://pages.citebite.com/c9h6f4a1cgih




http://ochousingnews.com/news/delinquent-jumbo-loans-in-coastal-california-pollute-bank-balance-sheets




http://pages.citebite.com/x8e7h5d8tlyj





http://pages.citebite.com/b8i3v2s7trsw





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-05/16-reasons-why-david-rosenbergs-not-buying-employment-report





http://pages.citebite.com/x9q8y7k1vqta




Next bubble's seeds being sowed in bailing out the last one.   Today's grandchildren

will be bailing the banks now.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/no-money-down-home-loans-are-back-2013-02-01



@3:30:

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/house-prices-nowhere-near-bottom-says-analyst-125114464.html





http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/house-prices-nowhere-near-bottom-says-analyst-125114464.html



 

 

http://pages.citebite.com/y9b2m0d5frpp




PRICE DISPERSION (ESSENCE OF THE ILLUSION)

http://pages.citebite.com/p4v3h4u5ukuk






http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-10/mysterious-case-americas-negative-real-wage-growth

 

 

 



http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bond-bubble-bigger-catastrophe-real-estate-bust-casey-161402082.html






http://pages.citebite.com/x9a6m4p0hnwb





http://pages.citebite.com/c9h6f4a1cgih

 

 

 

ttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-01-30/shrinkage-us-economy-declined-01-q4





http://www.dallasfed.org/news/speeches/fisher/2013/fs130116.cfm

(Dallas Fed: End TBTF)

 

 



http://www.aol.com/video/gary-shilling-on-the-housing-market/517141434/



Bullish Hoopla In Housing Is Driven By Bogus Inventory Reports

http://news.firedoglake.com/2012/07/16/the-great-housing-swindle-shadow-reo-artificially-boosting-prices/



 





http://ochousingnews.com/news/delinquent-jumbo-loans-in-coastal-california-pollute-bank-balance-sheets








http://pages.citebite.com/x9a6m4p0hnwb






http://pages.citebite.com/c9h6f4a1cgih







http://pages.citebite.com/x9q8y7k1vqta








http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2013/01/04/the-curious-predictability-of-the-payrolls-report/







http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEqkO_GENHA


(Video--Gary Shilling On The

Housing Market)


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/bond-bubble-bigger-catastrophe-real-estate-bust-casey-161402082.html


(Video)

 

 

 


Low Housing Inventory’s An Indicator

Of Residual Mortgage Distress

Low Housing Inventory Is An Indicator Of Residual Housing Distress 

 

http://ochousingnews.com/news/low-housing-inventory-indicator-of-residual-mortgage-distress


"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop"Boomerang Foreclosures" Are Back As Bernanke's Second Housing Bubble Begins To Pop

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-02-14/boomerang-foreclosures-are-back-bernankes-second-housing-bubble-begins-pop http://caliscreaming.com/2012/10/30/where-is-the-shadow-inventory-right-... Sorry for any duplications. There's actually aso much factual basis for bearishness it's rather unwieldy.

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 23:08 | 3387694 edb5s
edb5s's picture

Wow.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:17 | 3387785 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

yep...wow...now all we need is a lead article that summarizes the main points in <1500 words with a further summary ..PLUS...we need someone to sue the ministry of prop(the market)aganda - CNBC, for advising its client base in a grossly misleading way that is, in fact, malfeasance and a breach of its charter as a news site.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:35 | 3387199 noguess
noguess's picture

Thank you, splendid article.
I thought it was strange (these are strange times): Cyprus banks (bankrupt) sells their Greek branches (bankrupt) to Greek banks (bankrupt), all using EU tax money.
Now I get it: that was the ultimate trick to get billions out of Cyprus. Who profited (the most, I mean, not the Cypriotic middle man, not the Greek middle man)? Anyway, it was very well done!

Transfer a bank (extremely leveraged) to another bank in a country without capital restrictions and no retributions, and you effectively transfer a multitude. More Uniastrum s around? (see elsewhere on ZH)

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:13 | 3387782 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

its a lot worse than that.

yanno..they were given a loan of 10 billion if they put 6 billion down on a 16 billion euro "asset"..the russians lent the money without "strings", just a helping hand until the half of cyprus that is greek and not turkish gets it hands on gas fields...that don't belong to turkey, israel or egypt that is

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:35 | 3387200 Poetic injustice
Poetic injustice's picture

I see the recovery! I see it! Sorry, it was just a fly on my screen.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:54 | 3387240 juggalo1
juggalo1's picture

Looks like the market started heading upwards pretty stronglysince 2012.  Why don't you show a logarithmic graph showing year over year price gains.  It looks like we would be clearly in the positive territory.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:00 | 3387256 haskelslocal
haskelslocal's picture

These articles are strawman BS.

States prices are back only to 2004 levels.

Charts only go back to 2005.

Look, if you've not got access to a better chart, then don't write the article.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:10 | 3387779 hooligan2009
hooligan2009's picture

errr...the charts start from 31 dec 2004? do you mean "since 2004" means the charts shoudl have started from 31 dec 2003?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:36 | 3387354 mliu_01
mliu_01's picture

chinese are buying without getting any loans. They pay CASH!!!. I know people buying multimillion dollar houses. They all pay CASH.

Go to Rowland Height in CA. You will see what I mean.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 01:12 | 3387841 Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture

Since the American government is stupid enough to allow it, the Chinese are wise to buy American real estate. In the long run it's more valuable than all of that Treasury toilet paper they would be stuck with.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 01:52 | 3387862 kareninca
kareninca's picture

Here's how it works in Silicon Valley:  A Chinese person buys a $1.4 million house with cash (that he has taken illegally out of China).  Buying with cash gives him an edge in the bidding process.  After the closing, he takes out a mortage on the house, and extracts the cash.  He lends the cash to Chinese person #2, who buys a house using that cash.  Then, Chinese person $2 takes out a mortgage, extracts the cash, and lends it to  -  Chinese person #3!!!!

Fortunately for one's sense of justice, these idiots are going to be way-pverpaying in the long run.  However, in the short run, I suppose that getting out of the corrupt and polluted girl-baby-killing s***-hole of China may be worth it.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:39 | 3387367 Westcoastliberal
Westcoastliberal's picture

It might be parabolic, but is it "granular"?  Jamie Dimon wants to know.

All kidding aside, unless it's productive farmland I wouldn't touch real estate until prices come down another 80%, as they're likely to after the great reset.  Gold and silver are where it's at right now. And this is not investment advice.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 22:16 | 3387590 Darth Stacker
Darth Stacker's picture

Free Jon Corzine! Oh, no, wait.....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 22:49 | 3387656 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

Did you know the AVERAGE LTV for an FHA mortgage was 96%, and the average DTI was 41?

As the FHA withdraws from the market (another rate hike happening Monday) the market will soften.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 09:37 | 3387665 DaveA
DaveA's picture

Heard these recently:

"Other landlords used to laugh at me for renting to disabled people. Now their tenants are out of work and months behind on rent, while mine are still paying."

"Yes, we accept Section 8.  In fact, we prefer it, because the rent gets paid on time."

And you fools are bearish on housing!

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 05:04 | 3387958 css1971
css1971's picture

Why do people think bubble is normal?

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 09:04 | 3388204 JonNadler
JonNadler's picture

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MORTG

 

if the rate on the 30 year mortage went back to 7% which was the norm before Bubble bothers Alan and Ben, it would increase the monthly payment on a fixed rate 30 year mortgage by almost 50%.

 

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 10:41 | 3388441 Silverhog
Silverhog's picture

There are houses near me that are vacant now for 3+ years. Most have been trashed by assholes looking for something valuable. But no "For Sale" signs on any of them. Tight must refer to just cherry picked areas.  

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