Spot The Housing Recovery

Tyler Durden's picture

The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic' so we decided to go in search of this mystical anecdotal surge that is so often heard on the airwaves of the preachers. It turns out, the recovery (if that's what you want to call it) is not so much. Just as in Europe, it seems if we repeat the same lie (or hope) often enough, it may just come true. So it is in the US. Headlines crow of YoY gains and ad hoc surges (Vegas and Silicon Valley) but if you dig down just an inch or two into the real data, the housing 'recovery' is the little train that isn't. As Bloomberg notes, regional home prices have recovered to only 2004 levels and while the REO-to-Rent model remains for the late-to-the-gamers, it is inevitably a self-destroying bubble if there is no organic growth and one glance at the rate of mortgage applications ('real' buyers) says all we need to know about the housing 'recovery'.

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Jake88's picture

Admittedly we are only in the early stages of parabolic.

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Every parabolic curve has got to start somewhere.

Chuck Norris's picture

Could be an inverted parabola.  Technically, still parabolic.

Rick Blaine's picture

I'm sure MillionDollarBonus will be along shortly to explain it all to us.

rockraider3's picture

He's too busy buying Greek debt hand over fist.

PiratePawpaw's picture

"This is not the recovery you were looking for"...."move along"....

This just in's picture

Maybe the muppet meant "Paralytic?"

Xibalba's picture

No. The muppet meant 'we won't let facts dictate our narrative'.

wee-weed up's picture

If by muppets you mean MSM, then right you are!

Gotta protect "Hope & Change!"

flacon's picture

You didn't build that parabola. 

Cdad's picture

The housing recovery is just beyond the right side margin of the chart...as usual.    

Stackers's picture

LVXR-SA - ooof

Las Vegas still struggling to get back 2000 levels

max2205's picture

What'd you say, I was guzzling the kool aid

WmMcK's picture

She had a pair of parabolas that could cause cardiac arrest in a yak.

- W. Allen

SAT 800's picture

If we really, really believe; then Tinkerbelle will be able to fly ! All together now; do you really believe !.

El Oregonian's picture

Yea, and some autistic dweeb yanked out his mother's "assault" weapons and slaughtered a bunch of teachers and little kids... You mean that kind of fairytale magic?

Jack Burton's picture

Jesus! Let me guess, a youtube video?

WmMcK's picture

+ 1 - And every journey ends with a single step.

RockyRacoon's picture

Clearly.  And I get real tired of the calls of "tight supply".  When most homeowners are underwater they can't afford to sell.  After selling fees and the cost of relocating, there just isn't any financial way homeowners can dump their shitty tract boxes.  They just sit under the burden of negative equity.  There goes the "wealth effect" for spending as well.  It's gonna be a long haul.

CrashisOptimistic's picture

Here's the housing recovery -- with 40 million more people than there were then:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

SamuelMaverick's picture

That StLouisFed chart says it all. 

pursueliberty's picture

I'm thinking that last gray line should be a 1/2" wider at minimum.

ghostfaceinvestah's picture

It helps too when they are living in their underwater houses and not paying the mortgage for 4 years and counting.  Why sell?

Big Slick's picture

Technically, a parabola can be very flat.  You just set the focus F at a distance equal to a stack of money $16 Trillion tall.  See... parabola.

Wile-E-Coyote's picture

No...no it's a new metric called the diabolic.

McMolotov's picture

The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic'...

There's never been a better time to lie.

tarsubil's picture

We just need to have a couple more million short sales and most of the excess stock will have been cleared.

Big Slick's picture

"It's not a lie... if you BELIEVE it."

Lost Wages's picture

So the guy who bought my foreclosed home to rent it back to me is more screwed than I am?

SokPOTUS's picture

Sure.  You get shelter; he gets increasingly worthless electronic FRN's subject to Bail-Ins....

kalasend's picture

Here's the thing though...you're referring to the last man(or woman) holding the bag.

Unlike 2004, I bet 90% of buyers today do not plan to do that. Many know damn well what they are getting into. Of course, it's easier said then done and they never know when the music stops. But they know they'll have to exit some day.

The victims, as always, are not the ones preaching about the parabolic rise but the ones buying last...

I don't about others, but majority of people I know that are buying today are the ones that sold before 2007. Some bought back in as early as 2010. 

I don't know, some say timing the market is stupid but somehow my stupid friends just make it look easy. 

Sigh.....just a lonely ZH'er whining......move on folks

Professorlocknload's picture

'Round here, it looks like the new for sale signs are popping up faster than new contracts are being written.

donsluck's picture

Sold in 2007, rented, then the profit used to buy with cash in 2011. Timing, I suppose, but also macro and personal finance analysis. Macroeconomics is my hobby. I have a friend who thinks I have too much time on my hands. Sucker.

Still, young people who can get a loan have no memory of being wiped out. It's very hard to fight that nesting feeling. So, I disagree, because people are not getting smarter, and longer term thinking is being overwhelmed by ADHD and autism.

Seasmoke's picture

I guess that's why Fannie and Freddie are now 5years later just decided to give no docs modifications.

/Sarc

DosZap's picture

The HOUSING recovery positive numbers are strictly for RENTAL units being built.

PC Load Letter's picture

Just foreign cash buyers propping up the market for the time being

ALANBEEKMAN's picture

We're blowing real estate bubbles again out here in Silicon Valley.

Just sold my house in two weeks for way over asking, and with multiple offers,

and pocketed close to $100k.

Funny, a year ago, I was under water and trying to get BOA to do a loan mod.

 

Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Only in America. I sure am gonna miss the place after it is repossessed and sold as scrap.

Just Ice's picture

I always figured the housing bust would be much like the '29 stock bubble crash...the so called "dumb" money lost theirs in '29, in the crash, while the "smart" money (that rushed in to buy the crashed shares) lost theirs in '32 or '37.  Housing market needs eventually to adjust to fact that most people simply do not have the $ to afford the overpricing that sector got used to.  Japan's bust housing over 20 year decline.,,attitudes there finally changed, with new generations, that real estate values only decline.

SheepDog-One's picture

Amazing how around $25 trillion hot fake money can make things look good on the surface.

SAT 800's picture

Wow; a 1,000oz. bar of Silver is only 29,600$; you have a real opportunity there. (intended as a reply to Alan Beekman; I don't understand where these things end up; I'm not exactly a computer programmer).

kaiserhoff's picture

DHS is a work in progress.

It takes a few seconds to scan your message, your brain, your dog, the contents of your stomach, etc, etc,

The funny thing is, buy local standards, I'm not a tin hat;)

Bunga Bunga's picture

Why did you sell??? Prices are going to go parabolic.

daveO's picture

I suspect FED money, in the form of Hedge Funds, is pouring into select markets. In my area(NC), there are many of the same houses sitting on the market for years now. Only cash sales, at 1/2 or more of the tax value, get moved.

OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

98% of mortgages are straight to Fannie/Freddie: which are urgently asking for another Federal bailout. BofA got a new law passed that says that mortgage holders can no longer sue for misconduct/crime by their lender. Yeah, that's healthy.

kaiserhoff's picture

details or link?  some of us try to stay current.  Thanks.

otto skorzeny's picture

before the ink is even dry on the paperwork for home purchase that thing is jammed onto on freddie/fannie's books

Doubleguns's picture

To a muppet only inches tall that is parabolic.