• Sprott Money
    04/29/2016 - 05:58
    There is unfortunately no basis for renewed optimism that this current litigation will have any meaningful impact on precious metals manipulation – with respect to either silver or gold.

Spot The Housing Recovery

Tyler Durden's picture




 

The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic' so we decided to go in search of this mystical anecdotal surge that is so often heard on the airwaves of the preachers. It turns out, the recovery (if that's what you want to call it) is not so much. Just as in Europe, it seems if we repeat the same lie (or hope) often enough, it may just come true. So it is in the US. Headlines crow of YoY gains and ad hoc surges (Vegas and Silicon Valley) but if you dig down just an inch or two into the real data, the housing 'recovery' is the little train that isn't. As Bloomberg notes, regional home prices have recovered to only 2004 levels and while the REO-to-Rent model remains for the late-to-the-gamers, it is inevitably a self-destroying bubble if there is no organic growth and one glance at the rate of mortgage applications ('real' buyers) says all we need to know about the housing 'recovery'.

 

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386875 Jake88
Jake88's picture

Admittedly we are only in the early stages of parabolic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:50 | 3386935 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Every parabolic curve has got to start somewhere.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:00 | 3386973 Chuck Norris
Chuck Norris's picture

Could be an inverted parabola.  Technically, still parabolic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:07 | 3386991 Rick Blaine
Rick Blaine's picture

I'm sure MillionDollarBonus will be along shortly to explain it all to us.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:13 | 3387002 rockraider3
rockraider3's picture

He's too busy buying Greek debt hand over fist.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:16 | 3387008 PiratePawpaw
PiratePawpaw's picture

"This is not the recovery you were looking for"...."move along"....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:57 | 3387122 This just in
This just in's picture

Maybe the muppet meant "Paralytic?"

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:09 | 3387140 Xibalba
Xibalba's picture

No. The muppet meant 'we won't let facts dictate our narrative'.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 23:47 | 3387737 wee-weed up
wee-weed up's picture

If by muppets you mean MSM, then right you are!

Gotta protect "Hope & Change!"

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:16 | 3387784 flacon
flacon's picture

You didn't build that parabola. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:59 | 3387125 Cdad
Cdad's picture

The housing recovery is just beyond the right side margin of the chart...as usual.    

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:08 | 3386995 Stackers
Stackers's picture

LVXR-SA - ooof

Las Vegas still struggling to get back 2000 levels

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:48 | 3387392 max2205
max2205's picture

What'd you say, I was guzzling the kool aid

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:41 | 3387520 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

She had a pair of parabolas that could cause cardiac arrest in a yak.

- W. Allen

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:39 | 3387075 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

If we really, really believe; then Tinkerbelle will be able to fly ! All together now; do you really believe !.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:59 | 3387128 El Oregonian
El Oregonian's picture

Yea, and some autistic dweeb yanked out his mother's "assault" weapons and slaughtered a bunch of teachers and little kids... You mean that kind of fairytale magic?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:40 | 3387518 Jack Burton
Jack Burton's picture

Jesus! Let me guess, a youtube video?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:40 | 3387512 WmMcK
WmMcK's picture

+ 1 - And every journey ends with a single step.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:52 | 3386944 RockyRacoon
RockyRacoon's picture

Clearly.  And I get real tired of the calls of "tight supply".  When most homeowners are underwater they can't afford to sell.  After selling fees and the cost of relocating, there just isn't any financial way homeowners can dump their shitty tract boxes.  They just sit under the burden of negative equity.  There goes the "wealth effect" for spending as well.  It's gonna be a long haul.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:26 | 3387036 CrashisOptimistic
CrashisOptimistic's picture

Here's the housing recovery -- with 40 million more people than there were then:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fredgraph.png?g=7iv

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:53 | 3387238 SamuelMaverick
SamuelMaverick's picture

That StLouisFed chart says it all. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:36 | 3387509 pursueliberty
pursueliberty's picture

I'm thinking that last gray line should be a 1/2" wider at minimum.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 22:45 | 3387647 ghostfaceinvestah
ghostfaceinvestah's picture

It helps too when they are living in their underwater houses and not paying the mortgage for 4 years and counting.  Why sell?

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 07:44 | 3388039 ATM
ATM's picture

wealth effect

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:55 | 3386953 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

Technically, a parabola can be very flat.  You just set the focus F at a distance equal to a stack of money $16 Trillion tall.  See... parabola.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 06:24 | 3387996 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

No...no it's a new metric called the diabolic.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386876 McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

The housing recovery was described by one muppet on CNBC yesterday as 'parabolic'...

There's never been a better time to lie.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:51 | 3386936 tarsubil
tarsubil's picture

We just need to have a couple more million short sales and most of the excess stock will have been cleared.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 01:32 | 3387852 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

"It's not a lie... if you BELIEVE it."

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386882 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

So the guy who bought my foreclosed home to rent it back to me is more screwed than I am?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:47 | 3386926 SokPOTUS
SokPOTUS's picture

Sure.  You get shelter; he gets increasingly worthless electronic FRN's subject to Bail-Ins....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:08 | 3387139 kalasend
kalasend's picture

Here's the thing though...you're referring to the last man(or woman) holding the bag.

Unlike 2004, I bet 90% of buyers today do not plan to do that. Many know damn well what they are getting into. Of course, it's easier said then done and they never know when the music stops. But they know they'll have to exit some day.

The victims, as always, are not the ones preaching about the parabolic rise but the ones buying last...

I don't about others, but majority of people I know that are buying today are the ones that sold before 2007. Some bought back in as early as 2010. 

I don't know, some say timing the market is stupid but somehow my stupid friends just make it look easy. 

Sigh.....just a lonely ZH'er whining......move on folks

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:01 | 3387418 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

'Round here, it looks like the new for sale signs are popping up faster than new contracts are being written.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 12:36 | 3388664 donsluck
donsluck's picture

Sold in 2007, rented, then the profit used to buy with cash in 2011. Timing, I suppose, but also macro and personal finance analysis. Macroeconomics is my hobby. I have a friend who thinks I have too much time on my hands. Sucker.

Still, young people who can get a loan have no memory of being wiped out. It's very hard to fight that nesting feeling. So, I disagree, because people are not getting smarter, and longer term thinking is being overwhelmed by ADHD and autism.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:37 | 3386883 Seasmoke
Seasmoke's picture

I guess that's why Fannie and Freddie are now 5years later just decided to give no docs modifications.

/Sarc

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:52 | 3386945 DosZap
DosZap's picture

The HOUSING recovery positive numbers are strictly for RENTAL units being built.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 02:40 | 3387884 PC Load Letter
PC Load Letter's picture

Just foreign cash buyers propping up the market for the time being

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:39 | 3386886 ALANBEEKMAN
ALANBEEKMAN's picture

We're blowing real estate bubbles again out here in Silicon Valley.

Just sold my house in two weeks for way over asking, and with multiple offers,

and pocketed close to $100k.

Funny, a year ago, I was under water and trying to get BOA to do a loan mod.

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:57 | 3386960 Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

Only in America. I sure am gonna miss the place after it is repossessed and sold as scrap.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:40 | 3387080 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:04 | 3386982 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

I always figured the housing bust would be much like the '29 stock bubble crash...the so called "dumb" money lost theirs in '29, in the crash, while the "smart" money (that rushed in to buy the crashed shares) lost theirs in '32 or '37.  Housing market needs eventually to adjust to fact that most people simply do not have the $ to afford the overpricing that sector got used to.  Japan's bust housing over 20 year decline.,,attitudes there finally changed, with new generations, that real estate values only decline.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:07 | 3386990 SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Amazing how around $25 trillion hot fake money can make things look good on the surface.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:43 | 3387087 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Wow; a 1,000oz. bar of Silver is only 29,600$; you have a real opportunity there. (intended as a reply to Alan Beekman; I don't understand where these things end up; I'm not exactly a computer programmer).

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:33 | 3387193 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

DHS is a work in progress.

It takes a few seconds to scan your message, your brain, your dog, the contents of your stomach, etc, etc,

The funny thing is, buy local standards, I'm not a tin hat;)

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 00:09 | 3387777 Bunga Bunga
Bunga Bunga's picture

Why did you sell??? Prices are going to go parabolic.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 15:28 | 3389191 daveO
daveO's picture

I suspect FED money, in the form of Hedge Funds, is pouring into select markets. In my area(NC), there are many of the same houses sitting on the market for years now. Only cash sales, at 1/2 or more of the tax value, get moved.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:38 | 3386889 OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

98% of mortgages are straight to Fannie/Freddie: which are urgently asking for another Federal bailout. BofA got a new law passed that says that mortgage holders can no longer sue for misconduct/crime by their lender. Yeah, that's healthy.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 19:34 | 3387197 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

details or link?  some of us try to stay current.  Thanks.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 20:55 | 3387407 otto skorzeny
otto skorzeny's picture

before the ink is even dry on the paperwork for home purchase that thing is jammed onto on freddie/fannie's books

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:40 | 3386896 Doubleguns
Doubleguns's picture

To a muppet only inches tall that is parabolic.

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