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When Will Deposit Haircuts Take Place In Other European Countries?

Tyler Durden's picture





 

When all is said and done, what happened in Cyprus over the past two weeks, is nothing but the culmination of re-marking the "assets" in the country's financial system (which as noted previously, were a preponderance of worthless Greek bonds and countless other non-performing loans), long priced at assorted "myth" levels, to a long overdue reality.

As a result of delaying resolving the mismatch between non-performing assets and liabilities for years, the resolution was one which saw some €16 billion of the total asset base impaired, which in turn necessitated the impairment of billions of deposits: the primary liability funding the Cypriot financial system.

Furthermore, as a result of the "Freudian Slip" by the Eurogroup's new head earlier this week, we know that Cyprus will be the template for all future bank resolutions, which seek to avoid a democratic popular vote of depositor self-impairment (a vote which is now known will never actually pass) and proceed to restructuring the banking sector a la carte, by liquidating bad banks and impairing liabilities to the point where the balance sheet is once again viable (however briefly).

The bottom line is that at its core, it is all simply a bad-debt problem, and the more the bad debt, the greater the ultimate liability impairments become, including deposits. Which means that the real question in Europe is: how much impairment capacity is there in the various European nations before deposits have to be haircut? Thanks to Credit Suisse we now know the answer.

The chart below shows the liability breakdown for various Eurozone nations, of which the key line item is the Total Deposits, and which in Europe comprises the bulk of bank funding. It becomes obvious why Cyprus had no choice but to crush depositors: they make up a whopping 84% of all liabilities (the highest in Europe and matched only by Greece), so assuming all other liabilities are liquidated, there still would be impairments if the total bad assets (assuming all bank assets are loans which in Europe, unlike the US, is more or less the case) pushed above 16% which in Cyprus they did.

So applying some simple balance sheet equality math, one can quickly calculate how much of a "Bad-Debt Impairment" assorted European financial systems can withstand before they too have no choice but to follow in Cyprus' footsteps and begin crushing depositors, who in bankruptcy court are known by a different, less friendly term: General Unsecured Claims.

The resulting chart is below:

Not surprisingly, in first place is Cyprus which underwent precisely the deposit haircut exercise that would have befallen Greece as well (at the same bad debt capacity), if only Greece had an easily expendable, for political reasons, deposit class - Russian Oligarchs. However, as more and more bad-debt accumulates within the system, the ability to provide a liquidity buffer, instead of resolving what is fundamentally a solvency issue, evaporates, and soon Greece, then Belgium, the Slovenia, then Spain, then Portugal, and so on, will have to address which, as Cyprus clearly demonstrated, is a solvency problem, not liquidity!

When will such days of reckoning happen? Ask the Cypriots: they had no idea they would wake up one day with virtually all of their deposits over €100,000 wiped out. Point being - nobody knows, or more specifically, fundamentally this is a political decision, usually one which is taken ahead of elections (i.e., those in Germany this September), and which has nothing to do with actual finances.

The reality however is that all of Europe's banks have a soaring bad-asset overhang, and sooner or later it will have to be resolved.

It is now common knowledge that such resolution will not take place via additional liquidity injections, but through impairment of the various liability classes as per the reverse waterfall of seniority: first equity, then capital and reserves then junior debt, and finally, senior debt and deposits (with secured senior debt last).

The lesson here is: do your homework, and know your bank. If one's deposits are in a bank that has, or is rumored to have, many bad loans, then pull your money and either put it in a safe bank, put it offshore, or just keep it under the mattress.

Because what happened in Cyprus is now, despite all promises to the contrary, the template for what will happen to all the countries to the right of Cyprus on the chart above.

It's only a matter of "when."

 


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Thu, 03/28/2013 - 11:58 | Link to Comment ziggy59
ziggy59's picture

CYA... Cover Your ASSets!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment whotookmyalias
whotookmyalias's picture

Get it out now!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

"Furthermore, as a result of the "Freudian Slip" by the Eurogroup's new head ..."

Freudian slips made by Jungean Shadows.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Passage
Passage's picture

ECB won every battle (in Ireland, Greece, Spain, Cyprus... ...), 
BUT they are losing the war.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Pinto Currency
Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

The real question is, is anyone who has more than 100k Euro in the bank going to stick around to find out?  I'd think not.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:26 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

What kind of economy is this? How are we supposed to tackle problems in a globalized world with non-uniform, disorganised policies enacted by a labyrinth of local governing institutions? The idea that we can tackle today's global problems with local government is a myth that is rapidly losing favor with global leaders. The time for a new world order is here. It's now just a question of how we will structure our global governing institutions.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I suppose you are in favor of an unelected 'Supercommittee' consisting of Ivy League educated scholars [with you playing the part of their sychophant pool boy & the rest of us playing the part of their ornamental lawn niggers wearing jockey silks...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:39 | Link to Comment Mountainview
Mountainview's picture

More pragmatic: What should I put in my mattress?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Manthong
Manthong's picture

I am so through all this negativity.

I am buying all fiat stuff until I bust.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:43 | Link to Comment gold-is-not-dead
gold-is-not-dead's picture

MillionDollarBonus_ for a world president and a mandotory first wedding night wife deflorator!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:05 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

American (FDIC), Russian, Canadian (CDIC) and Phillipine account insurance claim payout protocols in brief.

http://www.fdic.gov/bank/analytical/quarterly/2010_vol4_2/claims.html

They try to do it in months but they can if they wish or need (especially under exceptional circumstances hint hint...) take years to pay you back. However I am sure there will be no chance of inflation in the interim.

And they merge all individual account balances that you own.

Just so you know...

Now if you'll kindly excuse me I have got to place an order for some fish and chips for the fishbank to deliver to me in a couple of days...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment american eyedol
american eyedol's picture

there was no panic no banklines etc,,,,,i don't care anymore move on, obama needs to do what he needs to do devalue etc and move on,,,,,,,,,if our middle class turns out to be like every other county then that great and for the better,,,,people were aholes in the mid 2000's anyway

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:52 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

Is "haircut" the new PC term for scalping?

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Shearing the sheep. Not scalping. Remember, you can shear a sheep every year but you can only skin him once.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:05 | Link to Comment macholatte
macholatte's picture

 

The lesson here is: do your homework, and know your bank. If one's deposits are in a bank that has, or is rumored to have, many bad loans, then pull your money and either put it in a safe bank, put it offshore, or just keep it under the mattress.

 

Yes. Good advice, but how do you know? The "truth" is buried deeply in the lies & propaganda as has been demonstrated repeatedly. I submit that no amount of research could have provided the correct result. Insider information is the only real way to navigate the fog.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:28 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

But, but, but - the stress tests, they always pass!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:55 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

it's a lot like.... food

when you can't trust your money or your food things are....pretty fucked up

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 16:44 | Link to Comment Totentänzerlied
Totentänzerlied's picture

When in doubt, and when there's money at stake, stereotype: They're all bad.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment Dumpster Fire
Dumpster Fire's picture

Searching for that missing right bracket is driving me nuts

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:17 | Link to Comment jimmytorpedo
jimmytorpedo's picture

Here it is....]

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:31 | Link to Comment Joe Davola
Joe Davola's picture

Technically, shouldn't it be:  >

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment joak
joak's picture

NWO troll is back... 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:47 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

"how we will structure our global governing institutions"

A couple of suggestions come to mind like;

1) Without central banks

2) Without fractional reserve banking

There, problems solved!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:51 | Link to Comment MillionDollarBonus_
MillionDollarBonus_'s picture

National central banks will become less significant. Each will have to work in conjunction with a single world central bank. Monetary policy needs to be centralized in the global economy. This bank will be responsible for managing the supply and exchange rates of the new global currency. Interest rates will be set by a committee with a representative from each country, in conjunction with daily exchange rate fixings.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:09 | Link to Comment BigJim
BigJim's picture

Stop, before Paul Krugman's erection gets bigger than he is!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:11 | Link to Comment ghandi
ghandi's picture

An error does not become truth by reason of multiplied propagation, nor does truth become error because nobody sees it.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:41 | Link to Comment Tombstone
Tombstone's picture

We already have a new world order.  Capitalism, responsibility and free markets have been replaced by welfare/statism and Kommies drunk on spending. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:53 | Link to Comment bagehot99
bagehot99's picture

MDB - are you just a provocateur or are you really that dumb? The supranational institutions such as the EU have caused this mess, precisely because economies are very much local (albeit with global components), and ONE SIZE DOES NOT FIT ALL. It never has and never will.

The answer to this isn't process or governance driven. It's behavioral - running up massive debt using artificially created wealth to justify cheap money, and then wondering why asset bubbles keep inflating and bursting.

If there is a company paying you a million dollar bonus they must be run by fucking simpletons.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 21:11 | Link to Comment BTFDemocracy
BTFDemocracy's picture

MDB - He's quite smart to come up with those perfect lines.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 18:16 | Link to Comment theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

MDB -you aren't reading enough. What do you think the Eurozone is if not a single central bank for almost an entire continent? A perfect microcosm to try out your experiment.

Maybe you might bless us with your analysis of how it turned out.

Here are a few clues how to run an economy-

You can play with inflation

You can play with employment

You can play with taxes and government spending

You can print money

You can tamper with interest rates

You can try to devalue your currency and mess around with import/export trade imbalances

You can work harder.

You can invade your neighbours.

But if you have given control of your finances to someone in another land who doesn't share your local concerns, you are at their mercy.

 

Go study France- since 2001, they have been trying to support a massive welfare state, and accomodate powerful unions and a bloated agricultural sector, without their own currency.

Hollande has found out they are stoney broke, and tried to do his own form of theft by punitive taxes (on the wealthy this time however). He is praying Germany leaves the Euro before the Frogs are found out to be destitute cousins.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Haircuts?... Well ~ the Marc Faber baldheaded ponytail is, after all, a 'fashion statement'...

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 14:33 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

The statement is "I want to look like a horse's ass"

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Larry Dallas
Larry Dallas's picture

Being cynical at best, paranoid at worst, did anyone bother to think that this could be a globally coordinated scheme to force repatriated dollars back into the US? For whatever the reason (inflate USD, Treasuries, Commercial/High end Resi real estate)?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Stackers
Stackers's picture

must keep gold under $1600

must keep gold under $1600

must keep gold under $1600

must keep gold under $1600

must keep gold under $1600

must keep gold under $1600

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

THE SAME PATTERN DAY AFTER FUCKING DAY...

slam at or just after the open in London followed by attemtps to regain that are beat back...

slow continuous decline that accelerates at or around the open in Fraud City (NY)

attempts to regain are twarted and sideways trading up until the end of trading in London where a gradual decline occurs around the last hour until the close...

Sideways trading for the rest of the day in Fraud City until around the close where further selling takes place......

IF SOMEONE CAN PULL THE CHARTS FOR ALL OF THIS YEAR TO DATE YOU WILL C THIS SHIT IS NOT FUCKING COINCIDENCE AND IS COMPLETE FRAUD AND M A N I P U L A T I O N!!!!!!!!!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:16 | Link to Comment Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

Let these fools play their game. You get more gold and they have to spend energy and resources doing this. There must be some arbritage going on that costs them.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:17 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

good point...if they weren't screwing all our children

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:25 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

good find

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:27 | Link to Comment yrbmegr
yrbmegr's picture

Interesting.  In the U.S., I think that would be a Fifth Amendment "taking", requiring compensation to the depositors.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:28 | Link to Comment TruthInSunshine
TruthInSunshine's picture

It's not deemed legally "ripe" as a constitutional controversy that has standing to be heard by the courts until the FDIC is declared insolvent and/or otherwises announces its inability to compensate FDIC account holders at a rate exceeding 1/5th of one cent on their "insured" Federal Reserve Debt Notes.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:38 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

for those with non-pdf mobile devices, here is the relevant passage

Establishing a Risk Management Framework for Domestic SystemicallyImportant Banks

Economic Action Plan 2013 will implement a comprehensive risk management framework for Canada’s systemically important banks.

Canada’s large banks are a source of strength for the Canadian economy. Our large banks have become increasingly successful in international markets, creating jobs at home.

The Government also recognizes the need to manage the risks associated with systemically important banks—those banks whose distress or failure could cause a disruption to the financial system and, in turn, negative impacts on the economy. This requires strong prudential oversight and a robust set of options for resolving these institutions without the use of taxpayer funds, in the unlikely event that one becomes non-viable.

The Government intends to implement a comprehensive risk management framework for Canada’s systemically important banks. This framework will be consistent with reforms in other countries and key international standards, such as the Financial Stability Board’s Key Attributes of Effective Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions, and will work alongside the existing Canadian regulatory capital regime. The risk management framework will include the following elements:

- Systemically important banks will face a higher capital requirement, as determined by the Superintendent of Financial Institutions.

- The Government proposes to implement a "bail-in" regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that, in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes its capital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to viability through the very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital. This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consult stakeholders on how best to implement a bail-in regime in Canada. Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affected institutions, investors and other market participants.

- Systemically important banks will continue to be subject to existing risk management requirements, including enhanced supervision and recovery and resolution plans.

This risk management framework will limit the unfair advantage that could be gained by Canada’s systemically important banks through the mistaken belief by investors and other market participants that these institutions are "too big to fail."

 

notes:

"large banks are a source of strength" .. which is why this section is about how to deal with their spectacular weakness

"reduce risk to taxpayers" is a phrase that allows both depositors and taxpayers to be be "assessed" .. otherwise the language would be more like "the government will not disburse tax revenues to any failed bank"

"the mistaken belief .. that these institutions are too big to fail" means "the accurate belief", since the whole point of this section is to describe how to keep the large banks from ever "failing" .. a belief supported not only the "bail in" but also the term "systemically" in this section

 

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:41 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

but dont worry...

this is for one of those "unique" situation thing of ma' jiggies....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:59 | Link to Comment angel_of_joy
angel_of_joy's picture

You're getting boring, mate.

If you are dumb enough to keep more than 100k in ANY Canadian bank (or whatever they decide the insurance limit is), then you deserve it good and hard !

5th grade knowledge, really...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:06 | Link to Comment ZerOhead
ZerOhead's picture

That would be me...

And fifth grade was tougher than you think...

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 14:37 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

The 100K insured limit does not apply to a bail in. It only applies to a default. The bail in makes a default impossible by converting a liability (depositors' money) to an asset (banks' money).

Therefore, there is no insurance and no limit on what size account they can tap.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:53 | Link to Comment SafelyGraze
SafelyGraze's picture

et pour les zero-hedgeurs francophones:

http://www.budget.gc.ca/2013/doc/plan/budget2013-fra.pdf

pages 159 160

"Le gouvernement propose d’établir un régime de recapitalisation interne pour les banques d’importance systémique. "

recapitalisation interne

that's right

internal recap

like a script for a canadian porn flick
or a script from the island of jersey

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:56 | Link to Comment Creepy Lurker
Creepy Lurker's picture

Just more proof that the crap they pull in Europe comes across the pond. It's just a matter of time, folks.

If its not in your hand, you don't own it. Them's the new rules.

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 01:53 | Link to Comment The Navigator
The Navigator's picture

Them's the old rules..... that almost everyone has forgotten. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment YBNguy
YBNguy's picture

"Haircut" - Don't you mean decapitation, or Sweeny Todd-esque straight razor to the neck?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:03 | Link to Comment Cdad
Cdad's picture

Haircut = spleenectomy

redraft and submit 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

Hahahaha jokes on them.  I sold my spleen in 2010 to put a downpayment on a new iWatch.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:21 | Link to Comment redpill
redpill's picture

My Ukranian mail order bride stole mine and sold it on eBay.  Dumb bitch thought it was a kidney.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:32 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

What is her return policy?  Does she have her own oligarch?  And why are there only oligarchs in Russia?  These are questions I need answers to.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:39 | Link to Comment Sandmann
Sandmann's picture

Buy a 3-D printer and get them to fax you another

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:50 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Haircut is the new name for shearing the sheep. Keep in mind, you can shear a sheep every year but you can only skin him once.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:34 | Link to Comment StandardDeviant
StandardDeviant's picture

I believe the precise term used to be "scalping".

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Sounds like a new business.  Do they come in multiple colors?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:00 | Link to Comment SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

bail-ins are most assuredly headed to other Euro nations.  It appears they're headed to all Western nations with future bank crises.

I commented on this yesterday, but Tyler hasnt posted it yet, Canada included a bail-in provision for bank failures in its 2013 budget!

The Government proposes to implement a bail-in regime for systemically important banks. This regime will be designed to ensure that, in the unlikely event that a systemically important bank depletes its capital, the bank can be recapitalized and returned to viability through the very rapid conversion of certain bank liabilities into regulatory capital.
This will reduce risks for taxpayers. The Government will consult stakeholders on how best to implement a bail-in regime in Canada.
Implementation timelines will allow for a smooth transition for affected institutions, investors and other market participants…

 

http://www.silverdoctors.com/canada-includes-bail-in-provision-for-syste...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:06 | Link to Comment Uber Vandal
Uber Vandal's picture

certain bank liablities = bank deposits

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bank-deposits.asp

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Tyler Durden
Tyler Durden's picture

"Provisions" and "rules" are now completely meaningless: we are in unchartered territory, where the political elites make ad hoc decisions with the capital structure as it suits them purely for political reasons, which means absolutely no certainty about seniority, primacy, or liquidation position (see GM and Chrysler).

Unless the global reflation attempt manages to devalue the bad debt at far faster pace, it is inevitable that haircuts will happen. What is most disturbing is that bad debt impairments, especially in Europe, are rising at a far faster pace than global inflation, which means that what happened in Cyprus will certainly happen on at least several more occasions before the central banks go into printing overdrive.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

So you're saying we should all just buy stocks.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Skateboarder
Skateboarder's picture

"Is there still time to get in?"

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:11 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

everyday is the dip .

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:21 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

have multiple currencies ever hit hyper inflation simultaneously?

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 14:40 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

If they did how would you know?

(This is whythey had to demonetize gold)

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Abraxas
Abraxas's picture

"...before the central banks go into printing overdrive."

This is when having some physical gold will come in real handy.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

excellent point tyler.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:18 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Jim Rogers in a phone interview this morning, he had to say it twice for Carl Quintanilla on CNBC.

"You'd better hurry and get your money out of Europe before it's too late." 

"The IMF and the ECB have condoned stealing depositor money.  The politicians say 'Don't worry this is a unique circumstance' and if a politician says that you know it isn't true so people need to get their money out now." Rogers said (paraphrased but pretty close).

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

ebworthen I heard part of that interview and I thought I heard JR saying to make sure that your deposits fell under the insured limits. I did not hear him say get out. I was surprised at that.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

True, he said spread your money between different banks in different world regions with deposits under the insured limits, and said he was doing that with any European accounts he had and looking to invest outside of anything in Europe.  Sounded like a two-stage plan; get deposits under insured limits as they will likely take money above that first, then move it out of Europe entirely over time.

CNBC has the interview up now:  http://www.cnbc.com/id/100600824

"If you give me a trillion dollars I'll show you a good time, but it's going to end badly."

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:36 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

...different banks in different world regions...  Good luck with that! 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 16:33 | Link to Comment OpenThePodBayDoorHAL
OpenThePodBayDoorHAL's picture

Not that difficult but you will need to travel, they want to see you in person these days to oepn the account. Except in the very dodgy jurisdictions...which look increasingly safe these days.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:17 | Link to Comment WillyGroper
WillyGroper's picture

I heard JR also. While it sounds good to spread it out, why would anyone believe these thieving rodents of questionable heritage would make good on an "insured" limit? Solvency being the issue. They'd steal it from "Tiny Fucking Tim"!

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 14:50 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

The deposit insurance does not apply to a bail in. It only applies to a default. In a bail in there is no default because the bank's assets are topped up by turning a liability (depositors' money) into an asset (banks' money). The  bail in is a tax and it applies to every depositor. The only way to avoid it is to take your money out before it happens.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment eclectic syncretist
eclectic syncretist's picture

And yet these haircuts will only devastate economies and not stimulate them, so one has to ask, "Why would the ECB want to implode their own economies?"

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:01 | Link to Comment GlobalCtzn
GlobalCtzn's picture

Maybe a better question to ask would be "Why would those that control the ECB want to destroy the European economies?"

 

The destruction of the whole enchilada IS the plan. And when every corner of the world is filled with starving, scared, huddled serfs clamoring for their governments to do something to help them, the cunts that are ultimately manipulating this shit show will offer their hand and their new grand global plan from atop their white horse. And the sheeple will reach out and happily take it. The End.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:24 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

...or they could just revolt

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:43 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

Haircuts on deposits won't harm the economy directly, because that money was not it productive use and was not earning interest. Giving the banks the money to pay off nonperforming assets won't improve the economy because those debts were off the books already due to accounting gimmicks. However getting money out of deposits into circulation might increase inflation eventually, and that will happen if deposits are used to pay off bad assets, and the CBs desperately need inflation right now, lots of it.

The money being printed by the CBs is aimed at liquidity and is going into bank accounts and sitting there. That's why the CBs are not able to create inflation; the velocity of money is still in the shitter. They want to start easing money back into motion, and are starting with deposits since that has the knock-on advantage of reducing a bank liability, improving their books.

All this is a sign of desperation.

Things are very very bad.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:26 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

good points

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 15:01 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

But it was in productive use and it was earning interest. Nearly all small and medium size businesses in Cyprus are now ruined because their working capital was in the bank. It has been out of reach for 2 weeks and most of it is gone. No money to buy goods, pay wages, etc means they are out of business and thousands have lost their jobs.

Ordinary depositors who need the money to pay their bills and buy souvlaki are frozen out meaning the retail sector is on the skids.

The bail in is radically deflationary and it was all done to save banks that are doomed anyway. Can you see anyone putting money in a Cyprus bank after this? If they even  have any money?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:06 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

"Provisions" and "rules" are now completely meaningless!

No they are not meaningless! Provisions means when the banks largest credit exposures implodes and be NPL with Zero Hypothecation the banks will:

1- Restructure till Judgment Day

2- Print and fill the gap

3- Reflate.

Please dont mention haircut and default on Government debt, those two words are so negative and we have a dow 36K to catch.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

I'd love to see a bail in happen in the USA while at the same time Exxon and GE etc. pay zero taxes. If there has ever been a bigger sign that both parties are out to fuck everyone I don't know what it is.

To Tyler's point above.... How about those fortress balance sheets on companies that keep their money overseas take the hit first since that money is completely useless?

Nah...what the fuck am I thinking....let's skank some savings accounts.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

Both parties also famously get together when it comes to crafting election laws that, in essence, are intended to stamp out the rise of a third party.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:35 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yes, 30+ years of watching those clowns and they always collude to fuck over their constituencies in favor of banks and corporations; and the Supine Court deciding that corporations are individuals means the judicial branch is "on board" the "rape the citizen" party boat.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:12 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

What people are failing to realize is that what we're dealing here with is a Global, Enonomic, Political, Judicial, Corporate Systems that are CRIMINAL and beyond repair.

LIBOR

Fast & Furious

Bengazi

Bailouts

NDAA

Torture

Illegal Wars

CIA Rendition Drug Running and Laudering the Drug money through the TBTFB.

The Crimes are all out in the open to see and aren't "Hidden In Plain Veiw" anymore.  Now, what is anyone going to do about the Prosecuting the Criminality.  Nothing. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:14 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

DHS

Dept. of Human Sacrifice.

2 Billion Rds. Hollow Point

Automatic Weapons

Armored Pill Boxes

2700 Amored Trucks

 

It's coming. 

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:34 | Link to Comment DaveyJones
DaveyJones's picture

if you think about it, this was innevitable. These entities would surely rise to global power. As the physical resource limits hit the wall, the incompetent leaders fail to plan, and all the false structures begin to crack, the entities are in a perfect position to exploit - despite being the cause. The people are the wildcard.  

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:12 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

The self-described most sound banking cartel in all the world and their government is legislating a "bail-in" ? The smell of rotten fish abounds.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment bullnutz
bullnutz's picture

Holy cow!!!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:53 | Link to Comment Diogenes
Diogenes's picture

Interesting that the Canadian budget came out on the 21st and the Cyprus bail in only became common knowledge on the 18th.

This implies that the bail in, and the budget, were both planned long before the 17th. I wonder by who?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:39 | Link to Comment Chupacabra-322
Chupacabra-322's picture

The stage is set for complete, total full spectrum World domination from The Global Elite. Understand the core reason these Criminals continue to rape, pillage and steal wealth is though Illusion/Cover. We are not THE UNITED STATES but we are The United States of America. It is not The Constitution of The United States, it is The Constitution For The United States of America. Notice the difference. Do you see the Cover/Illusion.

These Criminals have been hiding behind the Corportate version of The Constituiton. Get it? That's the Cover and the reason behind their Crimes Against Humanity and The American People. Ask yourselves, why CIA propaganda, misinfomation/disinfomation is so good? Because it works. And the Elite own the media and have it staffed with their CIA agents/Council of Foreign Relation stooges like Andersen Cooper and Dianne Sawyer. The PsyOp runs deep, very deep.

The American people can continue to stay divided and blame the puppets Obama/Bush. Like they have any say in the matter. Both parties are the same sides of the same coin, bought and paid for a long time ago by The Elite Orligarchs. These Criminals sold their souls long ago.

So, continue to follow their lies, cover stories and false narratives such as Osama Bin Laden. A convenient CIA funded and trained Operative, code name Tim Osman. Sorry, But I digress.

Divide and Conquer. That's the Elite's game. Total Complete Full Spectrum World Domination.  Via The City of London. The financial location of The Banksters, which Wall Street is just an extension. They own the Military, Media and have put forth hundreds of years worth of planning to complete their goals of the aforementioned.

It began with The Fascist Patriot Act which morphed into The Military Commissions Act, John Warner Defense Act, NDAA, PD51, Torture, Illegal Wire Tapping etc..etc... You get the picture? We're dealing with pure Evil, which cannot be reasoned or negotiated with. Their goal was to break the sovereignty of The United States along with our good men and women of the Military while simultaneously ushering in their NWO protective force of Their Global Military/Police Force to protect their Corrupt system/Crimes Against Humanity. We're just their Debt Slaves. Divided and Conquered.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:43 | Link to Comment LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Not quite, it actually began with the Federal Reserve Act.  At that point, citizenship was revolked.  Everyone became tenants of the Corporation of the United States of America.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:43 | Link to Comment Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Planned by whom? By the CROWN! I.e. The City.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 11:57 | Link to Comment Dr. Richard Head
Dr. Richard Head's picture

I believe Jim Grant is correct when he said something to the effect of "Your money is NOT yours when the state neeeds it."

http://www.dailypaul.com/279752/james-grant-fed-opponent-shot-heard-around-the-world

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:06 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Grant mentioned in passing on CNBC last week that the market rebelled against the Fed in the 70s. I'd like to learn more about that if anyone is in the know...

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:29 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Nixon cancelled the ability to redeem dollars for Gold @35$/oz. in 1971; during a period of slowly accellerating inflation; this was done uni-laterally without consultation with our allies; it was in violation of solemn agreements made by the US Govt. and it resulted in a spiraling increase in the rate of inflation;( actually the on-going overspending on the part of the Govt. caused the inflation). Nixon appeared on Tele. in around 1974 to denounce "dollar speculators"; who were supposedly "driving down the value of the dollar"; and he anounced Federal Gold Sales from Fort Knox to "punish" the speculators. This backfired, badly; as the market absorbed all the gold made available while the price of gold continued to rise. So this was the market fighting the US financial system; if not, precisely the FED. The outcome was clear; the US, lost, the market won. Nixon sat down and shut up. Paul Volcker saved us from ouselves by forcing the Federal Government to actually pay buyers of Federal Bonds real interest, (above and beyond the levels of inflation). If you bought a Federal Bond in 1981, for instance, and held it until 1991; the returns were fantastic; it was far and away the investment of the decade. This killed interest in the Gold Market on the part of the well-informed and wealthy; and left only the small-time enthusiasts to their fate. Volcker really did save us from spiralling inflationary collapse, as far as I've been able to determine; only to live to see us do it all over again on a vastly greater scale. The problem is, and always has been, the Federal Govt. which buys votes; interferes in sectors of the economy, and most recently, simply sold the industrial capacity of the country to China; thereby apparently sealing its demise as a world power; although these things take time.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 17:12 | Link to Comment HD
HD's picture

Great post - thank you for taking the time to respond with such detail. I was aware of more of this than I realized. A few months ago I was having a running conversation - if Ben sticks around long enough, would eventually get himself fired like Volcker (for different reasons).

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:06 | Link to Comment SemperFord
SemperFord's picture

The Tylers had an article a few months back, the Fed basically said, don't fuck with us while DC was trying to blame the Fed for their over spending. Tried to find it, can't.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment SilverDoctors
SilverDoctors's picture

and Grant stated that on Bloomberg no less.  How much longer until the mainstream wakes up and the real bank runs begin?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Yes. If he actually said that; he deserves credit for a nice easy to remember truth of modern politicks. That this is the case is attested to by the historical performance of financial systems in many, many, countries in the twentieth century alone; and many others, and in many cases, the same ones again, in the 19th. Century. Inflation, of course, is a primary tool of confistication of actual value; but more dramatic and traumatic measures are frequently resorted to; when the peoplel with the guns and the "legal authority" spend themselves into bankruptcy. The actual history of the "Continetnal Dollar"; as in "not worth a Continental"; is very instructive, as it involves a large scale criminal conspiracy to rip off the people and families who were still recovering from the wounds suffered in fighting the Revolutionary War; on behalf, of course, of the ruling class who gleefully engineered the rip-off. In plain English, The USA has been a hot bed and testing ground of criminal financial schemes since day one. Anyone who believes their IRA's, or 401's, or money market funds, are "untouchable" is touchingly naive.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:19 | Link to Comment Arturo
Arturo's picture

Well that's an actual Spanish Constitution article:

 

Article 33

1. The right to private property and inheritance is recognized.

2. The social function of these rights shall determine the limits of their content in

accordance with the law.

3. No one may be deprived of his property and rights except for justified cause of

public utility or social interest after proper indemnification in accordance with the

provisions of law.

 

Fri, 03/29/2013 - 04:13 | Link to Comment Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

"Your money is NOT yours when the state neeeds it."

I start to understand Marc Faber's thinking that "even in gold, it will be difficult to hide". 

I don't want to give the State ideas, so I won't spell out what could be legislated or "regulated".

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 11:59 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Um sir, the customer is already bald.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment edifice
edifice's picture

That's when they break out the grater and go for the folicles.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Yep, if the state needs a new wig they will harvest even your future hair.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:25 | Link to Comment krispkritter
krispkritter's picture

In that case I'm glad I shave my balls.  Now to have my back waxed...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:10 | Link to Comment Winston Churchill
Winston Churchill's picture

MUCH more than we needed to know.

Please use HufPro comments for info like that.

This is fight club,not fright club.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:00 | Link to Comment GolfHatesMe
GolfHatesMe's picture

April Fool, you thought you had money

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Pretty neat knowing that at any minute your so-called 'assets' can just get a -40%+ SuperCut's Machette Special....sleep tite Europe.

The U.S. has got this shit though, don't worry 'can't happen here'....endless SnackeyCakes for everyone. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment kito
kito's picture

why only EUROPEAN countries tyler???? wont it be a GLOBAL wealth heist??????

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:11 | Link to Comment Passage
Passage's picture

Asia is so pleased. Every struggle sinks Eurozone further. Big fish don't even trust Switzerland anymore; they are shifting funds to Asia, particularly Singapore and HK.

We will live to see the day Europe declines into third-world status.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:07 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Kito if the circumstances ever arise that cause the USD to sell off to a certain point QE will be history and the bail in that will take place here will make people's heads explode.  But with Ben's foot on the gas and the reserve currency, we will watch the rest of the domino's fall first and that money will rush over here and buy us more time than many people could imagine.

Kyle Bass is right.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:33 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Euros are pouring into the US, right now; that is the basis for the price trading down on the EUR/USD pair; supply and demand. And yes, Kyle Bass is probably right; I'm certainly not going to argue with him.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:37 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Explain what does "money coming here" mean?

 

Large amounts of money cannot be deposited with retail banks.

Large amounts of money usually look for COLLATERAL.

 

Collateral:

- Treasuries

- corporate bonds

- Stocks

- Crude oil

- Gold

 

The price of all these can be crashed easily at it happened in 2008 and there is a shortage of treasuries.

 

Question: Who will sell their treasury holding to the new money coming?

Question: Is the US Gov going to provide more new treasuries to this new money, hence higher debt limit, more debt etc. Not great politically.

 

It is not as easy as you explain it. I agree it is simple, but not easy. 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 15:39 | Link to Comment Catch-22
Catch-22's picture

...you forgot the biggest one; REAL ESTATE. Here we go again...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:07 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Yea...whatever happened to the 'GLOBAL banking system'? Now they've all got it rehypothecated and sequestered into single nation banks again? My, how convenient.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:42 | Link to Comment UpAndComing
UpAndComing's picture

Bravo sir...fucking nailed it

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:25 | Link to Comment Meat Hammer
Meat Hammer's picture

Tyler knows that, but he probably has the same aversion to Hellfire missles as the rest of us.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:33 | Link to Comment Zwelgje
Zwelgje's picture

The code word for Hellfire missiles is 'gas explosion'. ;-

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:01 | Link to Comment observer007
observer007's picture

Bundesbank sends billions of cash Euros to Cyprus by LUFTHANSA....

 

(ECB is running out of cash obviously)

More (german)

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/wirtschaft/12529-bundesbank-schickt-milla...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Wouldn't it be great if the pilots hijacked the plane and flew the bail-in billions to Bolivia or some shit? 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:26 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

"We're charge here.  Now drive this bus to Cuba!"  <old Monty Python>

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:23 | Link to Comment Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

I bet the fumes in that Lufthansa plane are unbearable,  due to the fresh, wet ink and all.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:02 | Link to Comment DocinPA
DocinPA's picture

I'd like to see where the good ol' of USA would fall on that chart.....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:02 | Link to Comment Zola
Zola's picture

which is how it should have worked in 2008. WHy did we have 5 years stolen from us all for this charade... That's the real question...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:02 | Link to Comment ArkansasAngie
ArkansasAngie's picture

Bernanke's stated desire is to drive money towards riskier assets.  Well ... I guess he has been successful ... sorta ... kinda ... maybe ... he's succeeded in making all assets riskier.  WTF!!!

 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

You won't buy my risky garbage? FINE then....I'll just make EVERYTHING risky garbage!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:15 | Link to Comment Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

You might be speaking more truth than you might have intended. This "recovery" was built on the back of transferring all kinds of idio(t)syncratic risks to a systemic risks and driving correlation towards 1 across asset classes. It's gonna get real messy when SHTF.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

They will not reprice using any and all mechanisms available until they must reprice. ONly when thay are looking directly into the abyss will they pull the trigger. Once the Big Lie is started it can never be stopped without admitting it was a Big Lie. Thus total ruin in the only outcome that will bring change.

<Meaning the elevator must go further down. Much further.>

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment SheepDog-One
SheepDog-One's picture

Reprice it? I'm watching out for wooden nickels.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:19 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Wood is rapidly becoming too expensive for currency.

 Electronic nickles are Bernanke's TrickFuck to the world. The Exorbitant Priviledge isn't easy to fuck up, but Bernanke is doing a mighty fine job trying to fuck it up.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:04 | Link to Comment Racer
Racer's picture

Wow and look where Germany is and.... Ireland

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:51 | Link to Comment Ourrulersknowbest
Ourrulersknowbest's picture

Hey the German economy is rock solid .their banks are supar safe.their productive economy is flat out making quality shit that everyone needs.
Buy the myth baby!

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:08 | Link to Comment Pairadimes
Pairadimes's picture

This is not a 're-marking' exercise. It is theft on a grand scale, and an ultimately futile act from the standpoint of economic health, since the institutions and behaviors that brought us to this point will not change as a result.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:09 | Link to Comment Cognitive Dissonance
Cognitive Dissonance's picture

"The lesson here is: do your homework, and know your bank. If one's deposits are in a bank that has, or is rumored to have, many bad loans, then pull your money and either put it in a safe bank, put it offshore, or just keep it under the mattress."

Financial planning via the rumor mill. This is how far we have fallen.....and we have only just begun to fall.

<Help......I've fallen and I can't get up.> 

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:22 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

You beat me to it.  I said basically the same thing in a separate post, below.  I even bolded the same word.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:10 | Link to Comment Unprepared
Unprepared's picture

Growing more and more convinced that Cyprus is the template not for deposit raids and capital controls but the masses behavioral responses: if they are able to put those limits just about the right amounts, the STOCKholm syndrome within each sheep should kick in to make them grateful they at least can access enough money to buy necessities.

 

And again, not a single banker has been mistreated in the making of this confiscation attempt. The neutral villains (x-KGB's) have been made full. And all lived happy ever after.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:35 | Link to Comment blu
blu's picture

Yes. And Cyprus was also a test-case. Small country, few weapons. What could go wrong? After they hit a few others and nothing blows up, they'll be ready to try it on the US banks.

The media in the US will start spinning all this as "making the rich pay their share" and waving the populist red flag. When they do, will be a time to watch out.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:13 | Link to Comment GeorgeHayduke
GeorgeHayduke's picture

When will they take place in the US? However, when it happens in the US it will happen just like everything else happens here, the money will be taken from those who have LESS than $1 million in savings and given to those who have over $1 million in savings. Socialism for the upper tier, it's an American tradition.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:23 | Link to Comment Kayman
Kayman's picture

Exactly what happened with Paulson's $700 billion heist. Rob from the poor and give to the filthy rich.

Oh yeah, and they have repaid every penny. What, from earnings ? How about from unlimited Benny Bucks buying shit assets.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:14 | Link to Comment Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Folks, I'm reading fifty different versions of what has happened in Cyprus. Can someone tell me exactly how much money accounts have lost? Was it all accounts? Was it different for "wealthy" versus "average"? Or is it that we are waiting to see what happens after the lines die down at the ATMs today?

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:28 | Link to Comment Non Passaran
Non Passaran's picture

Read most recent articles.

Then go to the Web page of the Cyprus CB.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:36 | Link to Comment Van Halen
Van Halen's picture

Non, thank you. I just wasn't sure if the most recent articles... actually had the most recent information!

For instance, the home page of the CBC has, in it's press announcement, "1.    The resolution of Laiki Bank involves its separation into a "good" and a "bad" bank, with full protection of insured depositors (up to €100.000 per depositor). This arrangement also covers joint accounts."

Really? I thought EVERY account had been hit with a tax per some of the most recent news I've seen.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 14:16 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

You fucked up as soon as you thought CBC was going to inform you of something substantive, credible, or current.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:16 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

Bloomberg went to commercial with the comment "why gold is going nowhere for many years...."

then when they came back from break had this blonde bitch trot of guess mother fucking who for commentary???????????????

 

JEFFREY CHRISTIAN...............................................................

FUCK MOTHER FUCKING BLOOMBERG...

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:30 | Link to Comment Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

The 24-hour anti-gold propaganda and it is still at $1600.  Is there anything more bullish?  Jefferey Shitstain said gold would trade around $1000 and it averaged $1265 in 2010 and ended the year at $1400.  Same guy who in 2009 predicted a quick and fast recovery?  That winner?  The only TV mouthpiece that gets it wrong with more frequency and depth is Crammer.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:40 | Link to Comment SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

You don't have to watch this you know. you could sell your television; books are nice and quiet; they don't hum and flicker and hypnotize you; they contain actual information that hasn't been chopped up into sound bites.

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 13:32 | Link to Comment Kaiser Sousa
Kaiser Sousa's picture

In war it is always wise to monitor the communique's of your enemy even when you know it is disinformation and propganda...

be aware as well as vigilant....

Thu, 03/28/2013 - 12:54 | Link to Comment resurger
resurger's picture

I feel you Sousa!

I hope someone snipe that mother fucker pointblank fatal T shot.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!