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Europe's Last Green Shoot Is Wilting

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Germany, it seems, has had enough with its taxpayers implicitly bearing the burden of the rest of Europe's profligacy as the final solution chosen for Cyprus clearly shows (especially in light of pending German elections). But with all that 'stabilitee' based on one nation's shoulders, the following chart suggests Europe's Atlas is about to shrug. For the last six months, non-German Europe has seen its economies collapse with PMI New Orders pushing new lows now - after some brief episode of hope at the start of the year. Germany, in the meantime has been surging back as expectations of recovery have led sentiment higher and hopes for a European green shoot renaissance. That is until recently. In the last month, Germany's economic momentum has faltered; the green shoots are wilting; and combining real economic weakness with the Europe-wide deposit outflows (hurting the 'financial' economy), Europe is back in the crosshairs.

 

 

Chart: Credit Suisse

 

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Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:45 | 3392297 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

The Euro will bring peace and prosperity to Europe!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:54 | 3392310 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Ich bin ein sausage sandwich?

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:59 | 3392320 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Soylent Green Shoots

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:17 | 3392452 Schmuck Raker
Schmuck Raker's picture

"...the final solution chosen for Cyprus..." [stifled giggle]

Tyler, you naughty, naughty boy.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:35 | 3392389 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

I seem to have acquired my own personal troll.

I am honored.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:50 | 3392939 ebear
ebear's picture

"Ich bin ein sausage sandwich?"

Nein!  Du bist ein Jelly Donut!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lxdm70LbtDQ

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:57 | 3392314 thisandthat
thisandthat's picture

Arbeit macht frei!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:00 | 3392512 ebear
ebear's picture

Arby's makes fries!

They're not free, but if you hang around near closing time the manager might fix you up.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:23 | 3392667 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The US educational system - second to none.

 

e.g.  We're below zero on a world scale, worse than uneducated but MISeducated (well indoctrinated..... USA!!! USA!!!! We're number 1!!!!   - in percentage of population in prison, in military spending..... all kinds of things you really DON'T want to be #1 in)

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 08:09 | 3393130 Wile-E-Coyote
Wile-E-Coyote's picture

Of course economic data from Germany wouldn't be manipulated would it?

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:50 | 3392305 IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

"Recovery Summer Part 5: This time it's real!"

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:52 | 3392306 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Accelerating.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:52 | 3392498 Go Tribe
Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:54 | 3392311 ekm
ekm's picture

What else would happen if energy is being withheld from the world economy?

 

Brent at $120 is simply 100% overprices at least.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:59 | 3392319 surf0766
surf0766's picture

Germany will reprint its' own currency before year end.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:19 | 3392358 ekm
ekm's picture

Rumor is they have already printed it and is sitting in a military warehouse there............just in case

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:25 | 3392371 Nussi34
Nussi34's picture

The EUR bills will be recycled as toilet paper for political refugee camps!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:42 | 3392837 lrdrvrZH
lrdrvrZH's picture

Not as far fetched as it sounds. I remember reading an article in either 'Das Handelsblatt' or 'Die Welt' about a year ago that outlined preliminary courses of action and considerations by the Bundesbank for printing Mark again.

I don't think the Germans will go alone if they leave but one just never knows. I wouldn't be surprised in a common currency with The Netherlands and Finland though.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 17:58 | 3392323 Assetman
Assetman's picture

Don't worry... Uncle Ben has only just started providing European banks with endless liquidty.

If you're a tiny soverrign like Cyprus or Luxemborg, well that's pretty tough luck.  But certainly Ben has the back of French and German bankers, no?

 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:01 | 3392325 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

If ever an "experiment" was designed for failure this was......and of course its ultimate implosion will benefit those best positioned to buy assets for pennies on the dollar.....regardless of what ultimate currency system is the outcome.......

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:24 | 3392672 cynicalskeptic
cynicalskeptic's picture

The EURO was designed to limit and cripple Europe - to PREVENT Europe from ever challenging the US economically on a world scale.  Look at the history of the EURO and those behind it.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 04:40 | 3393036 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

"France and the UK were opposed to German reunification, and attempted to influence the Soviet Union to stop it.[7] However, in late 1989 France extracted German commitment to the Monetary Union in return for support for German reunification." 

this?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 19:07 | 3394383 tango
tango's picture

The road to the EU was discussed for years - Europe as the new superpower, Europe as the middle way between the US and USSR (which it was, I guess).  The stated goal was political unification beginning with monetary unification.  But of course nationalism and culture reared their heads and since there was no political union, the financial side was destined to fail.  I don't buy for a minute that there were any long-range plans or conspiracies or "other goals".   They thought a super nation could be created by committee and that was not the case. 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:02 | 3392328 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

well, we all got a internal memo saying: NO MORE MEETINGS WITH SALES

meaning they need to hit the road 5/5 8 hours a day.
And that shit is everywhere now.

On fridays We always go to a nice restaurant to finish the week with friends. It's been already 2 months since I had to make reservations because there's always more than enough room to just walk in. And the service these last few months is just super great! meaning that they are having a hard time. When times are good you almost need to throw your knige to a waitor, when times a bad they serve you like your grandmother did.
And after eating we go out, and also that shows it's pretty quiet these last few months. and those who are there don't spend a lot of money. plenty of beer hughers :)

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:10 | 3392343 ekm
ekm's picture

Location? State?

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:19 | 3392357 kliguy38
kliguy38's picture

Throw a dart at the map of the US excluding NY and DC

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:24 | 3392360 ekm
ekm's picture

makes sense

 

(nice blog)

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:24 | 3392562 W74
W74's picture

Upstate NY is a wonderful place to visit and to travel through as well, but holy shit is that landmass attached to a communist fuckhole.  NY really needs to be 3 separate states, (East) Long Island, New York (the city part), and Adirondackia (name probably needs work).

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:28 | 3392380 Cursive
Cursive's picture

@ekm

IIRC, Sudden Debt lives in Holland. He's definitely in Euroland.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:32 | 3392387 kaiserhoff
kaiserhoff's picture

Belgium, unless he's over in Frogland raiding the silver;)

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:04 | 3392329 Ourrulersknowbest
Ourrulersknowbest's picture

Germany out the gate first.everyone else can go fuck themselves.
What could go wrong with that?
Who's gonna buy your bmws ?????

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:10 | 3392341 PontifexMaximus
PontifexMaximus's picture

The chinese will!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:21 | 3392362 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

at the right price..."everybody." It is a myth that Germany has an aversion to inflation "because of Weimar." Everyone has an aversion to inflation..."until they don't." The bulk of Europe's capital now resides in Germany...if you're gonna re-introduce the D-mark now's the time. these things are not telegraphed...they are always "found out." (Mexico is a textbook example.) Fer sure there is a "mayhem problem." nothing moving to Germany can't cure of course. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0G8XJNz4bY

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:21 | 3392347 falak pema
falak pema's picture

the Euro was made as a financial hedge against PAx American hegemony after they realised the petrdollar noose made them addicts to the eurodollar fractional reserve printing without gold back up in post 1971 floating rate PM decoupling.

The Euros reacted by making the Euro serpent and then went full monetary union with Maastricht on a one legged money construct!

Whatever that construct achieved the crisis of 2008 has made Pax Americana now a troubled empire and king $ a dinosaur. 

If the dinosaur dies or loses hegemonic influence over the coming years the Euro continent will not need a hedge and the nation states can rebuild around a free market but national monies to suit their own paradigms. There will be no single national currency that throttles the world market. China will not achieve that role as its economy is too big and inward looking as history keeps teaching us.

Demise of USD hegemony will spell that first link to fall will be that of Euro, as that hedge not only is TOO costly as protective straight jacket in austerity crisis for diverse economies, but more importantly, is now NOT relevant.

Multipolar world will move to a new currency; too bad for first world it wont be their money...

That's history's pendulum and the Columbus chapter now comes to an end. This current globalisation is a pure Pax Americana concoction to suit its neo liberal oligarchy via "labour arbitrage" colonial model. Its now part of the false facade.

The proverbial saying now is more and more : "young man, go east, go south!".

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:25 | 3392374 falak pema
falak pema's picture

To be more precise : the probable first link to fall should be one of its two surrogates, aka Euro or Yen, and Euro seems more divided currently but Yen is not far off.

It will then cascade all across the fiat reserve empire.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:22 | 3392367 taraxias
taraxias's picture

"Europe is back in the crosshairs"

 

Europe never left the crosshairs.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:24 | 3392370 Black Markets
Black Markets's picture

Bullshit.

Any day now Germany is going to open a giant door in the Bergwerk and a million strong army of 7ft ogres are going to swarm out wearing Kevlar body armour and carrying rail guns.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:49 | 3392493 max2205
max2205's picture

4 years and counting for the eurocrashzone

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:59 | 3392511 q99x2
q99x2's picture

It can't happen. They don't have our guns yet.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:45 | 3392592 orez65
orez65's picture

Germany's exports benefitted greatly from the Euro scam.

Germany was able to sell their exports, at low interest rates, to EU countries that could not afford them, like Greece.

So don't be so arrogant about how well you handle your finances.

You are as much of a scumbag as the Greeks.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:00 | 3392623 Oldwood
Oldwood's picture

 

 

Desperate times call for desperate actions. I am still inclined to believe that this is all part of the plan. A planned collapse that will drive the dependent directly into the arms of the EU. If the economy was nose-diving from a reasonably healthy economy the citizens wouldn't put up with it, but they are on their knees right now. Too weak to fight back and nothing to fight with. The EUcrats, have them exactly where they want them.

 

 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:55 | 3392947 Anusocracy
Anusocracy's picture

I don't think this is part of a plan, it's a variation of what happened to the Soviet Union.

What these useless idiots in control believe in just doesn't work.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 10:58 | 3393259 redd_green
redd_green's picture

Yeah, agreed.   They're already IN the arms of the EU (or jail).    The EU crats are the owners of all that debt, who get to call the shots.

 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:18 | 3392651 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

That's the trouble with exporting your way to prosperity: You're only rich if your customers can pay. Once they're broke, so are you.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:17 | 3392747 Tourist2008
Tourist2008's picture

So your recommendation would be ? To PRINT your way to prosperity perhaps?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 09:13 | 3392763 three chord sloth
three chord sloth's picture

Nope. Prosperity based on internal markets would be nice. Make things and sell them to your neighbors. Make enough babies so you still have neighbors in the future. Things like that...

There are more ways to grow than beggar-thy-neighbor or beggar-thy-children models. Well, at least there used to be...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:00 | 3393264 redd_green
redd_green's picture

Baloney. Once your customers are broke, you own everything.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:26 | 3392813 Lost Wages
Lost Wages's picture

Soon the grey and black lines shall meet again.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:36 | 3392920 Dull Care
Dull Care's picture

FORWARD BITCH!

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 09:36 | 3393177 StarTedStackin'
StarTedStackin''s picture

Bullshit!

 

 

 

Recovery summer 4 is just getting ready to start! The O'Bowel Movement said so

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 10:54 | 3393253 redd_green
redd_green's picture

fairly stupid article.  Like the Germans didn't set the whole thing up.  Who do you think owns the rest of Europe now?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 12:23 | 3393422 RaceToTheBottom
RaceToTheBottom's picture

The real question is what language will the crash test dummies speak?

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