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Risk - It's Not Just A Board Game

Tyler Durden's picture


"The world is a very risky place right now for an investor," is the cautious manner in which Grant Williams (of Things That Make You Go Hhmm infamy) begins this excellent presentation, even though he notes that "the general perception is that there is very little risk," as all markets from equities to bonds (and even risk itself) are priced as though 2007/8 never happened. It appears, Williams notes, given the market's perceptions that, "all the problems are behind us." He chides, "Nothing could be further from the truth." Williams focuses on the corruption of traditional price signals by Central Banks' ZIRP (and LSAP) policies, financial repression, and the possibility that the gold leasing market is about to fall apart - because one of these days, someone is going to ask for their gold back and be told they can't have it.

"By definition, risk-takers often fail. So do morons. In practice it's difficult to sort them out."


Scott Adams - The Dilbert Principle



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Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:54 | 3392422 Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

39mins... wtf?!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:27 | 3392464 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Worth every minute. Watched it earlier today - twice.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:48 | 3392596 Argos
Argos's picture

Very good presentation, good charts.  Very sound logic.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:30 | 3392914 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture


Sun, 03/31/2013 - 12:23 | 3393427 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture


If you don't hold it -

You don't own it! Simple.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 15:53 | 3393969 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

7 years to  return Germany's part of their gold is an eternity considering High frequency trading. It is actually a way of saying to Germany we will think about it for 7 years and we will let you know if you can have it.

Germany should demand it now. Just like Chavez. Unless the whole request is a rouse that the US does not have a problem handing it over to calm the restless.

Either way. Something is fishy and whoever counts on gold better buy it and hold it in their own hands or in places where they consider safe. there are millions of us and we have millons of ideas where it will be safe.

BTW: 22k gold wire or page size gold sheets for jewlery making do not look anything like gold until they are bathed in acid.


Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:51 | 3397002 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Yes indeed.

It makes you wonder how long a typical gold lease is....

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:47 | 3392594 Tinky
Tinky's picture

A.D.D.? Yessiree!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:01 | 3392792 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

ted watched it all and took notes.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:40 | 3392835 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Go commit suicide Plath

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 04:58 | 3393042 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture



She just wanted hope and change.....without the time investment.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:46 | 3392933 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Sylvia Plath said:  "39mins... wtf?!"

What, you think 39 mins of Dancing With the Stars is time well spent?  Goes faster than 39 minutes, it's full of fiber.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 04:19 | 3393025 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

Sylvia Plath "39"

ADD????? Wtf!


Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:54 | 3392425 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold, it's not just for breakfast anymore.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:15 | 3392449 Stuart
Stuart's picture

As far as the gold leasing game goes, it absolutely is a case of first to the exit (wanting their gold back) wins!  One of those points that is irrefutable, if you're last, you end up with NOTHING!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:28 | 3392462 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I keep trying to tell people ~ You need to pile up all your armies in Irkustk & invade Yakustk...

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:48 | 3392491 Mox E
Mox E's picture

Everybody knows you start off in Australia, sandbag your cards, amass a formidable army and then sweep through the board. Risk 101.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:20 | 3392554 dark pools of soros
dark pools of soros's picture

nah you team up with the dumbest players to take out the smartest one first - like in real life

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:28 | 3392573 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

That's only when the 'SMART' guy puts it all in Australia... Then you team up with the dumb guys to pin him in there...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:53 | 3392946 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Sho Bro you send it all over heyer, and wes gonna look after it reeeel gud fo yo, honest injun.....cos you just know ya cin trust us Awstrayians.......

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:26 | 3392748 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

can you provide an example?  better yet, what i want to know where the hofjuden fit in.  dumb or smart?  because they have not been taken out even once in the last 350 years;  furthermore, i just looked into my crystal ball and i can see that the money changers are perpetuating their financial fraud since the time of jesus.  so, can you kinda explain how this works for the real life we live today?

team up with the dumbest players to take out the smartest one first - like in real life

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:53 | 3392845 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Oh never mind....

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:21 | 3392556 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Damn, start in Australia?  Brilliant!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:27 | 3392571 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

aka: the 'Lex Luthor" strategy

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:24 | 3392754 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

have you been smoking those funny cigs tonight?  we talk gold, you jump in with irkutsk, then you shift to australia and finish with kryptonite.  wtf? ;)

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:30 | 3392915 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

as always ~ watch what the OTHER hand is doing...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:57 | 3392951 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Are you talking Wakky Baccy, if so please send it with the other stuff....Ok?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 14:11 | 3393707 theprofromdover
theprofromdover's picture

Confusiun say park your armies in Omsk, go invade Tomsk.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:27 | 3392674 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

the first to panic, panics best. 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 14:54 | 3393809 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, actually, I think if you're third or so; you'll end up with nothing. But, yes.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:54 | 3392426 Yellowhoard
Yellowhoard's picture

The world today is a chimpanzee with a machine gun and a hit of acid.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:05 | 3392439 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

I thInk we can take him.
Remember the story where the chimp got "trapped"
after he reached in to get the banana through the bars,
but then wouldn't let go?

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:15 | 3392448 negative rates
negative rates's picture

Wrong story, it was a 2 year old and a gumball machine. They had to take machine apart and pull the gumball up from the top of the machine. It took fire fighters 2 hrs to get the key and dismantle the machine. After the whole episode was over and the boy was comming down off the adventure, he said "that was tramatic, I think I need a few more gumballs".  

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:09 | 3392444 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I think we should all feel safe since the government has faith that Bernank and the Fed minions know what they're doing.

I hope the Easter bunny brings me some gold.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 09:04 | 3393147 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Yes - monkeys and footballs........

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:12 | 3393289 dobermangang
Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:01 | 3392430 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

LOL.. If any US alphabet taxpayers government agency copies my torture techniques. You’re in big trouble copying my internet patient claim.


Place your politicians under wraps.

Insert iPod ear buds on victim.

Max volume on IPod, press play.  Trololo Remix - 10 HOURS

Begin Chinese water torture.  


Sit back & wait for results.


How?? By your very own rules.. Bwhahahahahahaha

Copyrights and Internet Piracy (SOPA and PIPA Legislation) 

Just remember, if you start interrogating people on my devised plan. The lite attorney case load muppets who need the gay marriage deal to expand business will be all over this. 

System breakdown alert. Watching the snake eat its tail will be the grand TV finale. Coming soon…

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:14 | 3392446 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I would rather sleep with a 'Bangkok Hooker 'without a condom, then trust a 'bankster' with my hard earned cash.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:22 | 3392459 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture


if I could chose between my money...
and my dick falling off after some nasty shit happened to it...
I'll give you my money man....

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:32 | 3392471 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

ya gotta point there. I would only wear one condom.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:41 | 3392485 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

With the hooker or the banker? 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:32 | 3392685 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture


fielding mellish? now how many people do you suppose know where that name is from? two out of a million, and one is alan konigsberg? 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:26 | 3392759 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

The same unwashedmass that went to school with Ben? 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:51 | 3392851 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

What do you mean?  It's from an old Woody Allen flick.  People here are fairly well educated, and most of them are old enough to have watched it when it originally came out...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 06:50 | 3393083 Longtermnotreally
Longtermnotreally's picture

At least with the Bangkok Hooker you know what price you're going to pay

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:25 | 3393106 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Depends upon when you pay. The Hooker Principle - "The perceived value of services rendered declines dramatically once the service has been performed."

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:56 | 3393123 de3de8
de3de8's picture

Up to the 80's the worst you could get was the sting, but now a death sentence.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:27 | 3393312 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

+1 YC:-)

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:19 | 3392456 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Those people who call themselves the 99% ...
and 99% of the 1%...

will figure it out when the music has stopped and when they see there was only 5 chairs for 500 people dancing.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:32 | 3392470 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

For some reason people look at bond yields sub 2% and think "risk off" start buying equities...but that says risk ON in a BIG WAY to me. Sure..."look at how little interest i have to pay when i borrow." At the same time though "look at what passes for an asset these days as well." if the market determines that the price is far too high for "what's called that asset thingy you claim to have"..guess what "here we go again."

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:40 | 3392481 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

DAV did you notice how bond yields were creeping higher a few weeks ago, and the fed jumped all over that one. The markets took it as a buy signal. In a normal world low yields show flight to quality. We live in a POMO fake world.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:34 | 3392475 Oquities
Oquities's picture

credit unions, bitchez!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:11 | 3392800 Bear
Bear's picture

So they are safer? They are a row of dominoes waiting to fall. FDIC will print dollars (may be worthless though) to cover bank deposits ... credit unions will not be covered.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 05:32 | 3393061 Dieselclam
Dieselclam's picture

Why is there even discussion of savings accounts and credit unions? Credit LINES, Bitchez! Leave THEM with ALL of the risk. Only deposit enough money to pay off the credit line monthly and use the "savings" more wisely than giving it to a bank or credit union to steal.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:40 | 3393113 WTFx10
WTFx10's picture

Credit unions have there own insurance, all federal credit unions are insured by the NCUSIF.

Same fiat and we will see what happens when TSHTF?

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:35 | 3392476 Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers: Greatest Hits "Breakdown" (2:48)

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:41 | 3392482 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture



  1. Monopoly
  2. Stratego
  3. Risk
  4. Jenga
  5. You sunk my battleship
  6. illuminati card game
  7. UNO
  8. Candyland
  9. Play-Doh
  10. Easy Oven– You remember the days.. Metrosexual Ken cooking 3D printing/scanning food for transvestite Barbie who is howling for gay marriage rights. Most of the bark comes from the BAR association.


The list goes on… Don’t forget Chinese marbles

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:57 | 3392612 Jendrzejczyk
Jendrzejczyk's picture

"Chinese marbles" ....

Dats rayciss.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:58 | 3392789 NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

I thought it was called Chinese Checkers.  Yeah, there's marbles on the board and you start with all yours in a triangle off to one side.  Multiple people can play, not just two.  Same game?

If so, that's still raciss.  ;)

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:10 | 3393098 TheFourthStooge-ing
TheFourthStooge-ing's picture

US citizens have troubles with perceptation. Once brought down to more representatively scale, one can know betterly the game as Chinese Citizenism Checkers with gladness of heart.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:50 | 3392492 Racer
Racer's picture

Okay some of that is very probably manipulated but it shows that they... the FED... do.... not.... like .... deflation and will rob the people of the value of 'money'... smoke and mirrors just like the 'market' ... as long as it goes up you are getting wealthier... FAKE FRAUD ROBBERY THEFT

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:20 | 3392808 Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture



Federal Reserve Accounting Unit DollarS - FRAUDS

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:20 | 3392809 Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture



Federal Reserve Accounting Unit DollarS - FRAUDS

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:55 | 3392506 Banksters
Banksters's picture

Investor:  I want my gold

ETF:  You can't have it.   But you can have it reedemed in cash- refer to page 132 line c with the asterisk.  In the event that we get caught pretending to hold a product  that we've sold to you, we can give some fiatscos.   


During this time the price has gone up 200 dollars an ounce.  


Not if, but when.    

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:09 | 3392797 Bear
Bear's picture

Then why not just sell GLD and buy GC ... GLD can balk at delivering (or holding gold) before Comex fails delivery ... there can be no safer trade, except; buy Physical and sell GLD. As gold rises, one may have to sell some physical to cover margin calls. If the SHTF and all gold goes crazy up (GLD and GC), you will be liquidated and declare bankruptcy ... keep your house, your car, and your gold.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:01 | 3392515 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

Opps. i forgot number 11

Bill gates playing dungeons dragons game

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:03 | 3392517 eddiebe
eddiebe's picture

When interest rates are low, stocks will grow. Stocks are now a store of value. Granted they may tank, but then again so may the dollar. Diversify was and still is the ticket to ride.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:42 | 3392927 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Stocks are a store of value like credits in a 777 slot machine, but good luck to you.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:06 | 3392522 spanish inquisition
spanish inquisition's picture

Every country that wanted it gold back was told it could have it, just not right now...

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:07 | 3392523 stuman
stuman's picture

Also, tried to find a reference online referring to Germany's request/demand? for it's gold back in Jan...last I heard or read, the reply was "sure but it'll take 5-6 yrs".

Has there been any further development to that situation or time-line?  



Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:11 | 3392532 earleflorida
earleflorida's picture

`'The Finite Conterminous of a Anachronistic Timeline: The immature fractional abomination of a FRB's nascent-- 'Artificial Insemination'... gone terribly awry?!'`

Dotcom Bubble: 1999 ~ early 2000

Subprime Crisis: 2001 ~ Nov/2009

Financial [ Inchoate?] Crisis: ~ Aug/2007 - present?

EU/ EZ Coming to Terms: An, incipient 'Systemic Crisis'--  Present Day - ??? 


thankyou Tyler

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:24 | 3392564 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

That's a long one but a great review.   It's magic. 

Lots of hairspray can fix it though I bet.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:30 | 3392575 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Gold leasing will not fall apart for a long time given that its controllers can use dollars to buy off any threat of physical delivery bing demanded.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:08 | 3392635 seek
seek's picture

Until other banks/countries get wind of the free money and go to grab more gold.

This means the CBs have a choice of printing even faster to pay off those going for physical delivery, or pull back on leasing to stop making false promises.

My guess is they'll print faster -- but the outcome is the same -- asking for the gold back triggers a massive unwind and a price spike, or a price spike gets generated from the dollar settlements. Think COMEX is going to keep "selling" leased gold when there's a line around the block demanding delivery and settling for a cash prize instead? It's a game of poker where you know the other guy is bluffing 100% of the time.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:52 | 3392783 Bear
Bear's picture

Where are Hunts when we need them?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:18 | 3393104 BidnessMan
BidnessMan's picture

Who needs the Hunt Brothers when we have the Chinese and Russians? They are still stacking, and have no interest in the price going up while they still have lots of paper to unload.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:25 | 3392757 AllWorkedUp
AllWorkedUp's picture

Wish you were wrong about that but I'm afraid you're right at least for now. I wish I had a buck for every time I heard that the phyzz market was going to overwhelm the paper market, the lease rates were gonna blow, the Comex was going to collapse. Been hearing this stuff for at least six years now and it never happens.

  The banksters can still buy off whoever they want with fiat dollars and that doesn't change until it does. Think about it, if you demanded delivery of gold and they offered you twice the amount in fiat for you NOT ot take delivery, would you do it? Apparently 98% of the players do. In fact they take alot less.

 Unfortuantely fiat dollars still buy real goods - until they don't. Nobody has a clue when that will change.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:21 | 3392810 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

I appreciate your post allworkedup.  Yeah, a bit difficult.  It is all about time/reality/patience.  Nothing is over.  Nothing at all.  It will not end well for the banksters. 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:52 | 3393120 Temporalist
Temporalist's picture

"if you demanded delivery of gold and they offered you twice the amount in fiat for you NOT ot take delivery, would you do it? Apparently 98% of the players do. In fact they take alot less."

Of couse your argument is fudamentally flawed because most people that have a clue aren't going to just stop buying contracts+physical again, they will buy more than the original amount with the proceeds and hold for delivery again.  This means that the demand for physical is increasing in multiples but the supply of money to pay for the bribes is not.  The physical doesn't have to be purchased via comex or LBMA it is heading to places that actually deliver so the physical supply is dwindling somewhere even if the flood of paper is rising.

Incidentally six years is not a very long time.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:38 | 3392924 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Until the real tangible asset is demanded.

You know, that "put up or shut up" moment.

It comes to every relationship in time; just a matter of time.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:38 | 3392582 Tinky
Tinky's picture

Comment from the Youtube thread of this video:

"Dutch bank ABN Amro? has refused to deliver physical gold to its clients in recent days."

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:45 | 3392702 dbarrett
dbarrett's picture

I do know where my bullion is becasue I have it in my possession and I am not as stupid as the Germans or French, or all the other countries that left it with the Fed in NYC. I also know where my gold price girl is! 

I can't wait for tomorrow's girl....

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:56 | 3392787 mt paul
mt paul's picture

if you can not 

deliver my gold


you may pay me

in adrenial gland extract..

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:28 | 3392910 ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Excellent presentation.

Clear and to the point, full of common sense talk - just like your articles.

Thank You!

(glad I bought more gold at the last dip)


Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:36 | 3392918 palmereldritch
palmereldritch's picture

Serenity Now!

Thanks for the vid Tyler...this link deserves to be widespread

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 05:29 | 3393058 laomei
laomei's picture

The easy way around this is to simply refuse delivery and advise that the owners sell their bars and repurchase them locally.  Call it security or whatever you feel like.  Thus maintaining the fraud and placing pressure on other people who are not you.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 05:31 | 3393059 waldo simon
waldo simon's picture

Great presentation.logical and succinct

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:09 | 3393095 s2man
s2man's picture

Yep, great presentation.  Nothing new to ZH regulars, but an interesting watch.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 16:48 | 3394086 Gief Gold Plox
Gief Gold Plox's picture

I was just about to say the same thing. Nothing new to regulars, but quite reassuring nontheless.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:54 | 3393122 Central Wanker
Central Wanker's picture

Brilliant presentation. Worth the time spent, and more.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 09:22 | 3393159 boooyaaaah
boooyaaaah's picture

Thank you Tyler

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 09:25 | 3393168 d edwards
d edwards's picture

Tyler-they already have. Remember Germany asked for it's gold and was told it would take SEVEN YEARS?


Also, the state of Texas has asked to take possesion on it's gold. Gotta love TX.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 10:03 | 3393198 TLT
TLT's picture

One of the best presentations I have seen in a while. Must see!

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 12:21 | 3393417 Punch Bag
Punch Bag's picture

If you have to watch something this week, watch this! Absolutely first rate.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 10:28 | 3393214 Stud Duck
Stud Duck's picture

Frau Merkel, we have found an old unpaid invoice from back in the 40's. It is for the bombs dropped on Berlin, Dresden, and other assorted ciities in Germany.

We have decided to hang onto that gold of yours until we get this old invoice taken care of. Any problem with that? Oh we have been digging around in that some box of invoices and we also have a few other unpaid discreptancies that you may have to address before you get your gold back.

Oh yes, Frau Merkel they are very legitimate, oh we also have this Berlin airlift thing that needs to be taken care of, its not that much.


Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:09 | 3393279 dobermangang
dobermangang's picture

Buy gold bitchez!  Don't forget to buy some guns and ammo to protect your gold as well.   We live in interesting times.  Stay well.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:54 | 3393357 Ignorance is bliss
Ignorance is bliss's picture

I just bought junk silver. Gold might be a little pricey for everyday transactions. Nor do I want my neighbors to see me making purchases with gold while they are suffering the pain of America on the decline. Gold is an excellent investment, but silver will have its role to play.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:58 | 3393370 e-recep
e-recep's picture

transcript (if you prefer reading to watching) :

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 16:27 | 3394053 Pareto
Pareto's picture

Carmina Burana.  How appropriate.

Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!