Risk - It's Not Just A Board Game

Tyler Durden's picture

"The world is a very risky place right now for an investor," is the cautious manner in which Grant Williams (of Things That Make You Go Hhmm infamy) begins this excellent presentation, even though he notes that "the general perception is that there is very little risk," as all markets from equities to bonds (and even risk itself) are priced as though 2007/8 never happened. It appears, Williams notes, given the market's perceptions that, "all the problems are behind us." He chides, "Nothing could be further from the truth." Williams focuses on the corruption of traditional price signals by Central Banks' ZIRP (and LSAP) policies, financial repression, and the possibility that the gold leasing market is about to fall apart - because one of these days, someone is going to ask for their gold back and be told they can't have it.

"By definition, risk-takers often fail. So do morons. In practice it's difficult to sort them out."


Scott Adams - The Dilbert Principle


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JustObserving's picture

Worth every minute. Watched it earlier today - twice.

Argos's picture

Very good presentation, good charts.  Very sound logic.

OutLookingIn's picture


If you don't hold it -

You don't own it! Simple.

Oracle of Kypseli's picture

7 years to  return Germany's part of their gold is an eternity considering High frequency trading. It is actually a way of saying to Germany we will think about it for 7 years and we will let you know if you can have it.

Germany should demand it now. Just like Chavez. Unless the whole request is a rouse that the US does not have a problem handing it over to calm the restless.

Either way. Something is fishy and whoever counts on gold better buy it and hold it in their own hands or in places where they consider safe. there are millions of us and we have millons of ideas where it will be safe.

BTW: 22k gold wire or page size gold sheets for jewlery making do not look anything like gold until they are bathed in acid.


flyingpigg's picture

Yes indeed.

It makes you wonder how long a typical gold lease is....

jeff montanye's picture

ted watched it all and took notes.

GetZeeGold's picture



She just wanted hope and change.....without the time investment.

ebworthen's picture

Sylvia Plath said:  "39mins... wtf?!"

What, you think 39 mins of Dancing With the Stars is time well spent?  Goes faster than 39 minutes, it's full of fiber.

BadKiTTy's picture

Sylvia Plath "39 mins...wtf"

ADD????? Wtf!


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Gold, it's not just for breakfast anymore.

Stuart's picture

As far as the gold leasing game goes, it absolutely is a case of first to the exit (wanting their gold back) wins!  One of those points that is irrefutable, if you're last, you end up with NOTHING!

francis_sawyer's picture

I keep trying to tell people ~ You need to pile up all your armies in Irkustk & invade Yakustk...

Mox E's picture

Everybody knows you start off in Australia, sandbag your cards, amass a formidable army and then sweep through the board. Risk 101.

dark pools of soros's picture

nah you team up with the dumbest players to take out the smartest one first - like in real life

francis_sawyer's picture

That's only when the 'SMART' guy puts it all in Australia... Then you team up with the dumb guys to pin him in there...

Dugald's picture

Sho Bro you send it all over heyer, and wes gonna look after it reeeel gud fo yo, honest injun.....cos you just know ya cin trust us Awstrayians.......

Pseudo Anonym's picture

can you provide an example?  better yet, what i want to know where the hofjuden fit in.  dumb or smart?  because they have not been taken out even once in the last 350 years;  furthermore, i just looked into my crystal ball and i can see that the money changers are perpetuating their financial fraud since the time of jesus.  so, can you kinda explain how this works for the real life we live today?

team up with the dumbest players to take out the smartest one first - like in real life

jekyll island's picture

Damn, start in Australia?  Brilliant!

francis_sawyer's picture

aka: the 'Lex Luthor" strategy

Pseudo Anonym's picture

have you been smoking those funny cigs tonight?  we talk gold, you jump in with irkutsk, then you shift to australia and finish with kryptonite.  wtf? ;)

francis_sawyer's picture

as always ~ watch what the OTHER hand is doing...

Dugald's picture

Are you talking Wakky Baccy, if so please send it with the other stuff....Ok?

theprofromdover's picture

Confusiun say park your armies in Omsk, go invade Tomsk.

unwashedmass's picture

the first to panic, panics best. 

SAT 800's picture

Well, actually, I think if you're third or so; you'll end up with nothing. But, yes.

Yellowhoard's picture

The world today is a chimpanzee with a machine gun and a hit of acid.

freewolf7's picture

I thInk we can take him.
Remember the story where the chimp got "trapped"
after he reached in to get the banana through the bars,
but then wouldn't let go?

insanelysane's picture

I think we should all feel safe since the government has faith that Bernank and the Fed minions know what they're doing.

I hope the Easter bunny brings me some gold.

Yamaha's picture

Yes - monkeys and footballs........

Atomizer's picture

LOL.. If any US alphabet taxpayers government agency copies my torture techniques. You’re in big trouble copying my internet patient claim.


Place your politicians under wraps.

Insert iPod ear buds on victim.

Max volume on IPod, press play.  Trololo Remix - 10 HOURS

Begin Chinese water torture.  


Sit back & wait for results.


How?? By your very own rules.. Bwhahahahahahaha

Copyrights and Internet Piracy (SOPA and PIPA Legislation) 

Just remember, if you start interrogating people on my devised plan. The lite attorney case load muppets who need the gay marriage deal to expand business will be all over this. 

System breakdown alert. Watching the snake eat its tail will be the grand TV finale. Coming soon…

Yen Cross's picture

    I would rather sleep with a 'Bangkok Hooker 'without a condom, then trust a 'bankster' with my hard earned cash.

Sudden Debt's picture


if I could chose between my money...
and my dick falling off after some nasty shit happened to it...
I'll give you my money man....

Yen Cross's picture

ya gotta point there. I would only wear one condom.

FieldingMellish's picture

With the hooker or the banker? 

unwashedmass's picture


fielding mellish? now how many people do you suppose know where that name is from? two out of a million, and one is alan konigsberg? 

Manipuflation's picture

The same unwashedmass that went to school with Ben? 

RSBriggs's picture

What do you mean?  It's from an old Woody Allen flick.  People here are fairly well educated, and most of them are old enough to have watched it when it originally came out...

Longtermnotreally's picture

At least with the Bangkok Hooker you know what price you're going to pay

BidnessMan's picture

Depends upon when you pay. The Hooker Principle - "The perceived value of services rendered declines dramatically once the service has been performed."

de3de8's picture

Up to the 80's the worst you could get was the sting, but now a death sentence.

Sudden Debt's picture

Those people who call themselves the 99% ...
and 99% of the 1%...

will figure it out when the music has stopped and when they see there was only 5 chairs for 500 people dancing.

disabledvet's picture

For some reason people look at bond yields sub 2% and think "risk off" start buying equities...but that says risk ON in a BIG WAY to me. Sure..."look at how little interest i have to pay when i borrow." At the same time though "look at what passes for an asset these days as well." if the market determines that the price is far too high for "what's called that asset thingy you claim to have"..guess what "here we go again."

Yen Cross's picture

DAV did you notice how bond yields were creeping higher a few weeks ago, and the fed jumped all over that one. The markets took it as a buy signal. In a normal world low yields show flight to quality. We live in a POMO fake world.