Risk - It's Not Just A Board Game

Tyler Durden's picture




 

"The world is a very risky place right now for an investor," is the cautious manner in which Grant Williams (of Things That Make You Go Hhmm infamy) begins this excellent presentation, even though he notes that "the general perception is that there is very little risk," as all markets from equities to bonds (and even risk itself) are priced as though 2007/8 never happened. It appears, Williams notes, given the market's perceptions that, "all the problems are behind us." He chides, "Nothing could be further from the truth." Williams focuses on the corruption of traditional price signals by Central Banks' ZIRP (and LSAP) policies, financial repression, and the possibility that the gold leasing market is about to fall apart - because one of these days, someone is going to ask for their gold back and be told they can't have it.

"By definition, risk-takers often fail. So do morons. In practice it's difficult to sort them out."

 

Scott Adams - The Dilbert Principle

 

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Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:54 | 3392422 Sylvia Plath
Sylvia Plath's picture

39mins... wtf?!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:27 | 3392464 JustObserving
JustObserving's picture

Worth every minute. Watched it earlier today - twice.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:48 | 3392596 Argos
Argos's picture

Very good presentation, good charts.  Very sound logic.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:30 | 3392914 Supernova Born
Supernova Born's picture

Aussome.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 12:23 | 3393427 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

K.I.S.S.

If you don't hold it -

You don't own it! Simple.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 15:53 | 3393969 Oracle of Kypseli
Oracle of Kypseli's picture

7 years to  return Germany's part of their gold is an eternity considering High frequency trading. It is actually a way of saying to Germany we will think about it for 7 years and we will let you know if you can have it.

Germany should demand it now. Just like Chavez. Unless the whole request is a rouse that the US does not have a problem handing it over to calm the restless.

Either way. Something is fishy and whoever counts on gold better buy it and hold it in their own hands or in places where they consider safe. there are millions of us and we have millons of ideas where it will be safe.

BTW: 22k gold wire or page size gold sheets for jewlery making do not look anything like gold until they are bathed in acid.

  

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:51 | 3397002 flyingpigg
flyingpigg's picture

Yes indeed.

It makes you wonder how long a typical gold lease is....

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:47 | 3392594 Tinky
Tinky's picture

A.D.D.? Yessiree!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:01 | 3392792 jeff montanye
jeff montanye's picture

ted watched it all and took notes.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:40 | 3392835 Deacon Frost
Deacon Frost's picture

Go commit suicide Plath

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 04:58 | 3393042 GetZeeGold
GetZeeGold's picture

 

 

She just wanted hope and change.....without the time investment.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:46 | 3392933 ebworthen
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Sylvia Plath said:  "39mins... wtf?!"

What, you think 39 mins of Dancing With the Stars is time well spent?  Goes faster than 39 minutes, it's full of fiber.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 04:19 | 3393025 BadKiTTy
BadKiTTy's picture

Sylvia Plath "39 mins...wtf"

ADD????? Wtf!

K@

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:54 | 3392425 DoChenRollingBearing
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Gold, it's not just for breakfast anymore.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:15 | 3392449 Stuart
Stuart's picture

As far as the gold leasing game goes, it absolutely is a case of first to the exit (wanting their gold back) wins!  One of those points that is irrefutable, if you're last, you end up with NOTHING!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:28 | 3392462 francis_sawyer
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I keep trying to tell people ~ You need to pile up all your armies in Irkustk & invade Yakustk...

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:48 | 3392491 Mox E
Mox E's picture

Everybody knows you start off in Australia, sandbag your cards, amass a formidable army and then sweep through the board. Risk 101.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:20 | 3392554 dark pools of soros
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nah you team up with the dumbest players to take out the smartest one first - like in real life

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:28 | 3392573 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

That's only when the 'SMART' guy puts it all in Australia... Then you team up with the dumb guys to pin him in there...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:53 | 3392946 Dugald
Dugald's picture

Sho Bro you send it all over heyer, and wes gonna look after it reeeel gud fo yo, honest injun.....cos you just know ya cin trust us Awstrayians.......

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:26 | 3392748 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

can you provide an example?  better yet, what i want to know where the hofjuden fit in.  dumb or smart?  because they have not been taken out even once in the last 350 years;  furthermore, i just looked into my crystal ball and i can see that the money changers are perpetuating their financial fraud since the time of jesus.  so, can you kinda explain how this works for the real life we live today?

team up with the dumbest players to take out the smartest one first - like in real life

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:53 | 3392845 RSBriggs
RSBriggs's picture

Oh never mind....

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:21 | 3392556 jekyll island
jekyll island's picture

Damn, start in Australia?  Brilliant!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 20:27 | 3392571 francis_sawyer
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aka: the 'Lex Luthor" strategy

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:24 | 3392754 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

have you been smoking those funny cigs tonight?  we talk gold, you jump in with irkutsk, then you shift to australia and finish with kryptonite.  wtf? ;)

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:30 | 3392915 francis_sawyer
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as always ~ watch what the OTHER hand is doing...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 00:57 | 3392951 Dugald
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Are you talking Wakky Baccy, if so please send it with the other stuff....Ok?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 14:11 | 3393707 theprofromdover
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Confusiun say park your armies in Omsk, go invade Tomsk.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:27 | 3392674 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

the first to panic, panics best. 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 14:54 | 3393809 SAT 800
SAT 800's picture

Well, actually, I think if you're third or so; you'll end up with nothing. But, yes.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 18:54 | 3392426 Yellowhoard
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The world today is a chimpanzee with a machine gun and a hit of acid.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:05 | 3392439 freewolf7
freewolf7's picture

I thInk we can take him.
Remember the story where the chimp got "trapped"
after he reached in to get the banana through the bars,
but then wouldn't let go?

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:09 | 3392444 insanelysane
insanelysane's picture

I think we should all feel safe since the government has faith that Bernank and the Fed minions know what they're doing.

I hope the Easter bunny brings me some gold.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 09:04 | 3393147 Yamaha
Yamaha's picture

Yes - monkeys and footballs........

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:12 | 3393289 dobermangang
Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:01 | 3392430 Atomizer
Atomizer's picture

LOL.. If any US alphabet taxpayers government agency copies my torture techniques. You’re in big trouble copying my internet patient claim.

 

Place your politicians under wraps.

Insert iPod ear buds on victim.

Max volume on IPod, press play.  Trololo Remix - 10 HOURS

Begin Chinese water torture.  

 

Sit back & wait for results.

 

How?? By your very own rules.. Bwhahahahahahaha

Copyrights and Internet Piracy (SOPA and PIPA Legislation) 

Just remember, if you start interrogating people on my devised plan. The lite attorney case load muppets who need the gay marriage deal to expand business will be all over this. 

System breakdown alert. Watching the snake eat its tail will be the grand TV finale. Coming soon…

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:14 | 3392446 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

    I would rather sleep with a 'Bangkok Hooker 'without a condom, then trust a 'bankster' with my hard earned cash.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:22 | 3392459 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

eeeuuuhhh...

if I could chose between my money...
and my dick falling off after some nasty shit happened to it...
I'll give you my money man....
THAT'S A MANS MOST IMPORTANT HARD ASSET YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT!!!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:32 | 3392471 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

ya gotta point there. I would only wear one condom.

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:41 | 3392485 FieldingMellish
FieldingMellish's picture

With the hooker or the banker? 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 21:32 | 3392685 unwashedmass
unwashedmass's picture

 

fielding mellish? now how many people do you suppose know where that name is from? two out of a million, and one is alan konigsberg? 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 22:26 | 3392759 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

The same unwashedmass that went to school with Ben? 

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 23:51 | 3392851 RSBriggs
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What do you mean?  It's from an old Woody Allen flick.  People here are fairly well educated, and most of them are old enough to have watched it when it originally came out...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 06:50 | 3393083 Longtermnotreally
Longtermnotreally's picture

At least with the Bangkok Hooker you know what price you're going to pay

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:25 | 3393106 BidnessMan
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Depends upon when you pay. The Hooker Principle - "The perceived value of services rendered declines dramatically once the service has been performed."

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 07:56 | 3393123 de3de8
de3de8's picture

YC,
Up to the 80's the worst you could get was the sting, but now a death sentence.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 11:27 | 3393312 Manipuflation
Manipuflation's picture

+1 YC:-)

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:19 | 3392456 Sudden Debt
Sudden Debt's picture

Those people who call themselves the 99% ...
and 99% of the 1%...

will figure it out when the music has stopped and when they see there was only 5 chairs for 500 people dancing.
WHY DIDN'T ANYBODY SEE THIS COMMING?!?!?!

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:32 | 3392470 disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

For some reason people look at bond yields sub 2% and think "risk off" start buying equities...but that says risk ON in a BIG WAY to me. Sure..."look at how little interest i have to pay when i borrow." At the same time though "look at what passes for an asset these days as well." if the market determines that the price is far too high for "what's called that asset thingy you claim to have"..guess what "here we go again."

Sat, 03/30/2013 - 19:40 | 3392481 Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

DAV did you notice how bond yields were creeping higher a few weeks ago, and the fed jumped all over that one. The markets took it as a buy signal. In a normal world low yields show flight to quality. We live in a POMO fake world.

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