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Guest Post: Preparing for Inflationary Times

Tyler Durden's picture




 

Submitted by Jeff Clark of Casey Research,

"All this money printing, massive debt, and reckless deficit spending – and we have 2% inflation? I'm beginning to believe that either the deflationists are right, or the Fed's interventions are working." – Anonymous Casey Research reader

The CPI, in our view, does not accurately measure inflation, which accounts for some of the discrepancy our reader is pointing out. However, the proper definition of inflation is "an increase in the quantity of money," which we've had in spades. We've not experienced the concomitant increase in prices, which is what we're addressing in this article.

It's logical to assume that when you create more of something, you dilute the value of what's already in existence. That's exactly what has happened to the US dollar since the 2008 financial crisis hit. Economics 101 says this should lead to higher inflation – yet official Consumer Price Index (CPI) levels remain benign.

It's this unexpected development that led a reader to pen the above quote. Is the inflation argument dead? If so, does that mean gold's big run is over? It's a timely question since the current selloff in gold is largely attributed to low inflation expectations.

This is the first installment in our in-depth series of examining the next big catalysts for the gold price. This month we're looking at inflation. While a low CPI may be puzzling in the midst of massive, global currency abuse, there are three realities about inflation that convince us it's not only coming, but will catch an unsuspecting citizenry off guard.

Let's take a look at why we're convinced inflation will be one of the next big catalysts for the gold price…

Reality #1: History shows that high levels of debt and deficit spending eventually lead to inflation.

This statement makes sense on the face of it, but seminal research has been done that confirms it. A country simply cannot escape high inflation when carrying oversized debt levels and/or running massive deficits. Sooner or later, these sins catch up to you, regardless of what the current thinking may be.

Debt. The first of these historical studies is detailed in the book, This Time Is Different by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff, who've extensively researched the impact of high debt on inflation and gross domestic product (GDP).

Based on a comprehensive study of global incidences, Reinhart and Rogoff gave the following conclusion:

  • Debt levels over 90% of GDP are linked to significantly elevated levels of inflation.

When specifically studying US history, they again observed that:

  • Debt levels over 90% of GDP are linked to significantly elevated inflation.

When US debt levels met or exceeded 90% of GDP, inflation rose to around 6% – roughly triple current levels – vs. the 0.5% to 2.5% range when the ratio was below 90%.

However, with regard to timing, they state:

  • There is no apparent pattern of simultaneous rising inflation and debt.

In other words, inflation is a clear and definite result of high debt levels, but it's not a day-to-day link. This likely explains the current lag between high debt and a low CPI reading.

So are we nearing that 90% mark? Bud Conrad, chief economist of Casey Research, estimates we're currently at approximately 110%. Further, he projected from his research in December that…

  • Using my assumptions, gross debt to GDP crosses 120% in 2014. That is well past the danger point of 90% that Reinhart and Rogoff cite. What's scary is that my assumptions are not even close to a worst-case scenario, so the situation could be much worse.

Bud does not expect to see much more deflation. One reason is because…

  • In essence, much of the deflationary pressures have been cleared out. Going forward, there should be fewer outright losses from bad loans, and thus less deflationary pressure. For that reason (and many others), I expect higher inflation sooner rather than later.

Deficit Spending. Peter Bernholz is widely considered the leading expert on the link between deficit spending and hyperinflation. He conclusively states from his research that…

  • Hyperinflation is caused by government budget deficits.

The US budget deficit totaled $5.1 trillion during Obama's first term in office. The longer deficits last and the bigger they are, the closer a country moves toward very high inflation levels.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) recently reported, however, that the 2013 deficit will drop to $845 billion. Good news, right? Not exactly, because the reduction is largely a result of higher taxes. The CBO was therefore forced to admit…

  • The fiscal tightening from higher taxes and lower spending will slow economic growth to an anemic 1.4 percent by the end of 2013, causing the unemployment rate to edge back higher.

It turns into a vicious cycle, because if unemployment grows, money printing will continue and even increase. The CBO further admitted…

  • Deficits are projected to increase later in the coming decade, however, because of the pressures of an aging population, rising health care costs, an expansion of federal subsidies for health insurance, and growing interest payments on federal debt.

If deficits grow – or even just remain elevated – we inch closer and closer to the hyperinflation Bernholz warns about. Breaking this cycle will be very difficult, if not impossible... at least not without serious consequences.

These studies present clear and direct evidence that spending more than is brought in and continually adding to the national credit card leads to higher inflation. Sooner or later, this type of reckless behavior catches up to an economy. The sobering reality is that avoiding moderate to high levels of inflation in our current fiscal state would be an historical first.

Unfortunately, that's not the only inflationary fear we have to contend with.

Reality #2: History shows that inflation can occur suddenly and grow rapidly.

Not only is higher inflation a near certainty, history tells us that once it grabs hold, it can quickly spiral out of control. Given our crumbling fiscal state, we must consider the possibility that price inflation could kick in abruptly and rise rapidly.

Amity Shlaes, a senior fellow of economic history at the Council on Foreign Relations and a best-selling author, provides some examples from the past century of US inflation that was at first subdued but then abruptly rocketed to alarming levels. Look how quickly inflation rose in just two years from "benign" levels.

According to Shlaes, US inflation was 1% in 1915 (based on an earlier version of the CPI-U). Within just two years, it soared to 17%. As she states, it happened because the Treasury "spent like crazy on the war, creating money to pay for it…"

In 1945, the official inflation rate was 2%; it accelerated to 14% in 24 months. Inflation registered 3.2% in 1972 and hit 11% by 1974.

It's clear that the arrival of inflation can be sudden, and that prices can quickly spiral out of control. Given the profligate amount of money being printed by many countries around the globe, we could easily become victim to rapidly rising inflation. If we matched the increases in the chart, our CPI would register 11%, 15%, and 19% respectively, by February 2014.

Regardless of the timing, though, this is a clear warning from history: expecting the CPI to remain low indefinitely is a dangerous assumption.

Reality #3: Most developed-world governments need inflation.

It is a fact that high inflation reduces the real cost of servicing debt. Our debt levels have grown so high that the only politically acceptable way to deal with them is to inflate the currency. Politicians and central bankers have no incentive to stop, and thus will continue until disastrous price inflation emerges. Just because it hasn't occurred yet doesn't mean it won't.

Other political solutions simply aren't realistic. There is no amount of politically acceptable increase in tax revenue or austerity measures that can meet existing and future obligations. Printing money is the only viable solution. Once you internalize this, an understanding of the most likely consequences becomes clear.

Even if deflation in select asset classes persists or we get another deflationary event like 2008, we can rely on central bankers to concoct more rescue schemes financed with freshly created money. Perhaps just as likely is that the economy does improve and all the money that's been held back enters the system and sparks inflation.

Conclusions

Based on these realities, we can draw some well-grounded conclusions about the coming rise in inflation.

  1. The onset of higher inflation isn't certain, but the outcome is. These realities make clear that higher inflation is virtually ensured at some point. It's thus imperative we prepare for it.
  2. What we use for money will experience a significant – perhaps catastrophic – loss of purchasing power. As shown, this is not speculation, but a process of cause and effect observed repeatedly throughout history. As a result, you will likely use some of your gold and silver to protect your standard of living – that is, after all, one of its purposes. The point here is to make sure you own enough ounces to offset a significant decline in purchasing power.
  3. When inflation begins rising, precious metals will respond and move to higher levels. We don't know if this is the next catalyst for gold, but we're confident it will be a major driver of future prices.
  4. Keep in mind that gold tends to moves in anticipation of inflation – think of it as inflation insurance. By the time inflation is "high," the big moves in gold and silver will have most likely already occurred.

Stay vigilant, my friends, because higher inflation is coming – and as a result, so are higher gold and silver prices.

 

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Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:28 | 3394542 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

Turnips.com

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:33 | 3394559 Scarlett
Scarlett's picture

you guys are going to love this -->  http://richkidsofinstagram.tumblr.com/  I think these partyboyz are in for a surprise after loss of reserve status

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:06 | 3394790 DoChenRollingBearing
DoChenRollingBearing's picture

 

Perhaps not as exciting as rich doofus kids, but here for anyone interested:

"Review of Barron's -- Dated 1 April 2013"

http://tinyurl.com/ckqmfuq

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 01:15 | 3395163 EscapingProgress
EscapingProgress's picture

A little history on gold price manipulation.

http://www.gata.org/node/4279

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 02:05 | 3395198 Boris Alatovkrap
Boris Alatovkrap's picture

To decide is gold price inflation or deflation...

- Will risk in assets increase or decrease?

- Will Central Bank ease or tighten?

- Will interest rate increase or stay to ZIRP?

- Can discount rate or Treasury Rate increase without drain Bank reserve capital force confrontation of duration mismatch?

- Will Britany Spear have more mental breakdown?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 04:07 | 3395231 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

In our new PermaSale world, disposable razor cartridges are the best gauge of inflation.

Reasoning:

1. Difficult to make much cheaper
2. Oligopoly (Schick, Gillette, Bic) allows for price setting
3. Need (borderline), not a want
4. Consumable product, not durable
5. High consumption rate
6. Sales do not directly affect key industries or the economy

Keep an eye on the number of cartridges per pack and the price increase.

Since 1996 the average razor cartridge has increased by 265%...or...about 6% compounded.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 04:15 | 3395256 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

TSP Prediction: Before Dec 2014, you'll be able to buy Aust/S.A./Chinese Gold in Yuan Spot from HKME or SME over USD Spot.

Broader Scope: This will facilitate China's takeover of Oil Futures Markets.

.....you didn't think China wanted Gold to back its' currency, did ya?!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 07:31 | 3395370 new game
new game's picture

some things are unstopable...
timeless tradition sewen in garments

short buffons never split.

silver gone at 30 and 29>just too manipulated for my likeing

gold, though, much harder to control...

lead for trade> nice 50+ percent trade s.t.(yea i'm one of those assholes selling bricks at gb).

good luck> buy low sell high...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 08:28 | 3395437 TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Buy low, buy high, buy at any price.

When you have what the Oil entities want to keep accumulating, the Elites already have, and every country needs in order to fund their ongoing future energy needs....well....you're already in 'The Great Game', without knowing it, aren't you, Prince Andrew?!

...oh, and Prince Andrew, you might be a Royal, but you stuck your dick in something I never would have...and married it! You filthy fucking animal. LOL

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:15 | 3394966 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

Si, esto es verdad!  Ja, ganz genau, affen geil!   No matter in what language you say it, there are several different outcomes possible to the dollar's dethronement as reserve currency.  And only one of them is a "gold" standard.  The other 3 are not pretty at all and are all worse than what we got now.  So, careful what you wish for.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:52 | 3394607 eigenvalue
eigenvalue's picture

Bingo! Last year this author also penned another piece of "pump and dump" advocating owning gold and silver. However, anybody who followed his advice saw the portfolio underwater.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:09 | 3394644 King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Developed is a synonym for bankrupt or on the verge of bankruptcy.

It all makes sense now.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:23 | 3394684 old naughty
old naughty's picture

"...portfolio underwater"

So, are you saying it will again not moving much this time?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:48 | 3394745 bigkahuna
bigkahuna's picture

he's referring to all of the boating accidents...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:19 | 3394817 Long_Xau
Long_Xau's picture

A very tragic and inexplicable curse, indeed.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:41 | 3394878 Professorlocknload
Professorlocknload's picture

It's caused by putting too much on one side of the boat. 

Oh THAT kinda under water. I remember when I got a coin there in the late 90's for $300. Misplaced it, and had to replace it for $275 in 2000. But I found it again. That $25 loss was hard to take though!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 07:39 | 3395378 new game
new game's picture

if you have a timeline.

but what if you dont?

how fucking stupid of a comment

underwater, no safe and secure you fucking idiot...

got paper?-fuck off

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:15 | 3394807 Long_Xau
Long_Xau's picture

Alas, this is true. I followed such an advice a while ago and accumulated a modest stack of gold and silver. It all went underwater in a very unfortunate sampan boat accident.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 00:28 | 3395097 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

C'mon people, eiginvalid trys so hard to be early in the thread, certainly that chutzpa has to be worth something? 

C'mon eiginvalid, show 'em your reeeel stuff.  You show 'em all how the price of paper metal relates to the value of the physical metal, how the avialability of paper metal relates to the avialability of physical metal, and how to correctly predict those relationships going forward, and in our Fed manipulated markets, no less.  C'mon, hit it Pikachu!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 23:28 | 3396395 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Post deleted due to my poor memory.

 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:23 | 3394682 All Risk No Reward
All Risk No Reward's picture

Watch out for deflation before the hyperinflation - that's how the mega banks bankrupt everyone, eliminate their competition, turn their debt holdings into physical assets and buy up Earth for pennies on the dollar with all the looted bailout cash.

When they most of the physical Earth and are buried in debt themselves, THEN they will hyperinflate to erase their own debts...  BUT NOT YOUR DEBT BECAUSE THEY WILL WIPE YOU OUT FIRST.

That's why they are giving 3.5% 30 loans to all comers right now.

It is going to happen...  it is what makes sense from their sociopathic self interest analysis.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:49 | 3394746 markettime
markettime's picture

Commodities have not gone up in price because all of benny-lava's funny money has been purchasing dow & S&P indexes while going short on commodities. Also the velocity of money has not increased due to the banksters hoarding cash. They are hoarding cash because they are afraid of runs on the banks. What better way to protect the banking system? 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:01 | 3396561 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Ummmm.... which "banksters" are you referring to? The FED and his pet Megabanks are the only ones in a position to hoard anything. Bennie is holding all the money for the non-megabanks in "excess reserve" acounts that he pays minimal interest on (so the accounts can be cash equivalents and thus have a value on the balance sheets - so the banks - even though they have no money, can be considered "solvent.") All part of the Fed's charitable "buying" of the nearly 1.5 to $2 TN in MBS' which the FED is now collecting mortgage payments from. (Most of the MBS mortgages actually WERE AAA loans!)

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 07:54 | 3395393 new game
new game's picture

they are firmly in control and yes price will fall first because the money is spiraling in their black hole, not lost though.

no velocity, now the upper middle to lower uppers(last holders of  larger amounts)get corzined-macmansions with high taxes and heating/cooling bills a fucking dime a dozen. things start collapsing as desparate sellers (and gold too-keep wick dry)push everything down as shalom amps printing; then finally v. temp relief b/4 weinmer 2014 2nd edition best seller...

 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:27 | 3394693 HeliBen
HeliBen's picture

2% is a joke to begin with. We've been at 2% for what, 15 years now? Yet prices have doubled and tripled at least. That's not 2%. That's 8-10%.

God forbid we get to 10% plus in Cpi cause it will be a factor of 4 or 5 in actual life.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:10 | 3394794 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

Inflation is 2% because they have tricked us into believing its 2%.

 

1. Changing the parameters of how inflation is calculated

2. Changing container sizes.--If they give you half as much and it costs the same amount, thats 100% inflation.

3. Things are made cheaply--they don't last as long--if something lasts half as long, but costs the same amount, thats 100% inflation

It's all an illusion.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:57 | 3394910 Long_Xau
Long_Xau's picture

Probably more like a power of 4 or 5, not a factor of.

Since the last FED policies were announced (the inflation and unemployment targets) it should be clear that the statistics2 that the BS (Bureau of labor Statistics2, formally in the executive branch as part of the DoLe (Department of Labor)) reports publicly are now to be forged according to whatever pleases the FED (to some degree, at least formally also determined by the con-gress), or at least what the executive thinks would please the FED. Therefore, for all intents and purposes, this figure is now the propaganda about what they want you to see as the inflation figure.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 07:23 | 3395361 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

16 dislikes???

A bit to subtle eh,

Hat tip to the 3 people who knew what I was saying,

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:07 | 3396580 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Maybe more would have got it if you'd said "potatoes"?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:29 | 3394544 ShortTheUS
ShortTheUS's picture

One day, American central planners are going to stumble onto the fact that they can cure the debt problem and the money supply/inflation problem by just confiscating people's bank accounts.

 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:33 | 3394557 Stoploss
Stoploss's picture

"Stay vigilant, my friends, because higher inflation is coming"

 

If i had a dime for every time i heard that......

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:44 | 3394588 kito
kito's picture

Silver dime or modern one??????????

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:49 | 3394604 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It's looking like you are looking pretty damn smart kito. 85 bil a month and it can't keep up with the beautiful deleveraging. Banks are just grabbing stuff now because the printing is not keeping up with the implosions happening. Cash is king.

I truly can't wait to see the day CNBC, which has been talking endlessly about the fed's exit strategy, has to explain why Ben doubled down again to 170 bil a month.

85 bil a month and we need guest posts assuring us that inflation is coming. I would have thought we would have $200 crude here and now at this pace of printing. But it's not enough. The will print until the engine explodes though. Apparently we ain't seen nuthin yet.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:25 | 3394687 ekm
ekm's picture

What is deleveraging?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:38 | 3394725 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

as I understand it there are two types of deleveraging. Paying down debt, and debt being eliminated through bankruptcy/foreclosure etc.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:51 | 3394749 ekm
ekm's picture

Ok, why is it bad?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:58 | 3394772 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

Depends on who's asking...also depends on which type. But my personal belief is we are seeing a hell of a lot more of the bankruptcy/foreclosure type of deleveraging which is tearing a hole in the banks. It is deflationary in nature and it is what the fed is fighting to prevent.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:14 | 3394804 Beam Me Up Scotty
Beam Me Up Scotty's picture

House prices are starting to rise again in lots of areas however, and sales are happening at a faster pace.  What happens if people start to feel like they have money again?  I finally got some positive equity in my home equity line of credit a few months ago.  Could home ATM's trigger inflation?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:28 | 3394833 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

i bought my house in 07. If i could get what i paid for it now i'd sell in 2 seconds flat and downsize. I may see some more paper dollars on my statements but we all know it will be evaporated in a millesecond.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:37 | 3394862 kito
kito's picture

moving cellulite and fat deposits from your ass to your stomach doesnt mean youre losing weight ekm..........assholes like dalo have the temerity to call it deleveraging when the debt just gets moved from the individual onto the collective...............................all the while the banks are made whole..................

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:13 | 3394956 Long_Xau
Long_Xau's picture

Why are you taking the same point of view as the cartel/establishment by presuming it is bad? I advise you to take a neutral point of view when asking such important questions.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:29 | 3396641 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Swimming upstream here...

"What is deleveraging? Why is it bad?"

It is but at the same tijme it's not. You see, things move in cycles. You know - what goes up must come down, what goes around comes around, etc. Everything moves in cycles. Some cycles are loooong, some are short - but everything moves in cycles.

Some people do better on the up cycle than the down cycle. Some do better on the down cycle. So what you get is a resistence to both.

BUT TRUTH is that if you don't let the cycle proceed, the forces that REQUIRE cycles start to build up pressure to complete the cycle. And the prssure builds and builds until it BLOWS UP and the cycle is completed - but not in an orderly fashion. ie The continuation of an impeded cycle does vast amounts of damage to the system.

The Powers That Be (PTB) do well on the economic up cycle. So they seek to prolong it as long as possible. And when it should reset, they prevent it from doing so. While the pressures build, these PTBs know what is coming and so delay the reset as long as possible while positioning themselves for the explosive reset and the resulting down cycle. So we see the same people/powers that benefit from the up cycle, taking over the down cycle, and using the destruction caused by the explosive turnaround to set up the next upcycle - with them on top again.

So the "bad" part of cycles is when they are artificially interfered with and they cause destruction, which the PTBs benefit from - and the rest of us suffer from.

But the thing to remember is that the cycles MUST RESET and WILL RESET. If the cycles were left alone, ie protected from artificial manipulation, then everyone benefits from the up and down renewal caused by the cycles... which the bad people do not want.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:32 | 3394849 kito
kito's picture

fonz, printing is part of dalios beautiful deleveraging.....its so beautiful....banks get oodles of free money to recapitalize and the fed takes all their shit and shoves it into bens boxer shorts.........................savers get robbed........................ citizens get loads of debt thrown onto their sovereign shoulders...........but hey....its all good....its beautiful......good times are right around the corner........mcmansions for all..............3 home equity loans.............trips to the mall with the 5 new amex cards........................too bad dalio doesnt see the massive structural, not cyclical problems this country faces.....like the fact that america is now a welfare state and the middle class is slowly slipping away.......................................

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 00:54 | 3395139 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

yeah, banks get free moolah and regular peeps get bubbles in their fuel and grocery pricing...beautiful only for those that spend barely any percentage of their take on necessities...ugliness elsewhere

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:35 | 3394719 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

LMAO Kito!

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:06 | 3394638 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

Latest Shadowstats CPI, using govt methodology until changed in 1990, 9.62%. Unless you are stupid enough to believe the US government stats, higher inflation is here.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:08 | 3394642 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It is clearly not keeping up with deleveraging. That's all I am saying.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:41 | 3394731 CrazyCooter
CrazyCooter's picture

Correct. That is why the DHS bought all the ammo. My newest theory is that it isn't for the US to use, they will dump it into the hands of drug cartels, mobsters, etc so we can have a nice police state when shit crashes and lots of shooting starts.

Fast and furious was just the first step.

Time will tell ... but time is short!

Regards,

Cooter

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:19 | 3394668 Missiondweller
Missiondweller's picture

Thanks for sharing. looks like it was 6% at end of 2012 but I'm not a subscriber so I don't get to see up to date info.

Looks like that $85B /per month is going somewhere!

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:15 | 3394658 orez65
orez65's picture

Just paid $0.99 per pound of potatoes.

Is that inflation?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:41 | 3394730 fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

what is it called if gas is $2 a gallon but your bank account is gone so you have nothing? Seems to me it may as well be the same as hyperinflation. what difference does the price of something make if no one can afford it.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:45 | 3396717 nofluer
nofluer's picture

That's the result of what I'll call the downcycle - ie the deflationary part of the monetary cycle. INflation causes businesses to fail and people to have no money because the old money became worthless via hyper-inflation.

So when hyperinflation runs its course, and "new" money is created, (In Germany the "new money" was called the "Rentenmark") or you have the same money at higher per-unit value, (less buys more) it doesn't matter to you because you don't have any and can't get any because there are no jobs. But it probably wouldn't matter anyway as you sold your car for a bag of potatoes two months ago, and you're sleeping on a grate two blocks from the bread line's location.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:48 | 3394742 ironsky
ironsky's picture

No, but it is anecdotal.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 00:51 | 3395134 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

No, it's poor shopping skills. Buy a 10lb bag of potatoes when they go on sale, for a dollar. They you pay 10¢ a pound.

Store them away from onions, in a cardboard box with no light but plenty of ventilation. Use the more wrinkled ones first. If one sprouts, cut it up and bury the pieces in the yard.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 09:42 | 3395605 gaoptimize
gaoptimize's picture

Signed in to vote you up.  If I starve to death, I'll die knowing what a fool I've been all these years with sprouting potatoes I threw out because I thought they were innedible.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 13:20 | 3396412 e-recep
e-recep's picture

spoken like a true prepper.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:53 | 3396737 nofluer
nofluer's picture

Since potatoes only grow certain times of the year, you'd probably have to tear up the concrete in someone's basement (What do you care? You're just squatting in an abandoned house!) and plant them in the dirt, and hope you can run an invisible tap on a power line for the growlights and heater.

Potatoes aren't wheat, and Johnny Appleseed died a LOOOOOONG time ago.

Wed, 04/03/2013 - 20:49 | 3406323 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

They only GROW certain times of the year, but you can plant them whenever you have them.

You ARE going to want to eat next year, right?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:34 | 3394855 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

A nickel ain't worth a dime anymore. - Y.Berra

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:37 | 3394569 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

Governments can print or confiscate any result they want, in order to achieve a certain level of prices. In the end it is not about the level of prices but instead it is about what you can buy with the money you get on a weekly basis.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:46 | 3394591 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

"It is a fact that high inflation reduces the real cost of servicing debt."

Seriously Dude!! It also reduced the real cost of labor (great for big business) and reduces the real VALUE of the 99%'s income (sucks for the 99%).   If inflation has a value, then we should bypass the debt process and just print money to pay for crap.  At least the Bankers don't scalp the entire debt process.

When will inflation begin?  Here's the answer.   When people stop believing that stacking fiat is a means of preserving wealth.   period.   that is the only answer.  Right now...people still believe in stacking fiat...mostly electronic.  Its the tsunami of fiat rushing for something tangible that triggers inflation.   Printing shiploads of cash doesn't cause inflation.  On that ship look looking for crap to buy will cause inflation.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:25 | 3394993 Big Slick
Big Slick's picture

I think the author is not arguing in favor of inflation, but stating why things will naturally evolve that way.

If you are a massive debtor, high inflation indeed reduces the real cost of servicing debt.  This is the case if you a credit card debtor (a  voter), a mortgage debtor (taxpayer), or the US Govt (wealth redistributor).  Three good reasons why the forces will fight for inflation rather than deflation.

One other, you can tax inflation.  Cannot tax deflation.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:23 | 3394985 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

ShortTheUS: "One day, American central planners are going to stumble onto the fact that they can cure the debt problem and the money supply/inflation problem by just confiscating people's bank accounts."

Yes, but in their efforts to save the Fed and keep the Dollar from crashing, they will (a) first institute Capital Controls to prevent flight of capital from the US, and then (b) cut Entitlement Benefits and (c) raid your IRA/401k by forcing you to buy Treasuries.  Like all organized criminals:  Nobody gets out alive or unscathed.  At that point, they will need the drones, ammo and armored vehicles for the militarized LEA's to hang on to power at all costs.  Basic stuff, really.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:29 | 3394547 cherry picker
cherry picker's picture

Of course PMs will be higher as currency is worth less and finished goods, food, fuel and services will all be higher.

What they should study is how much in goods or services can an ounce of gold purchase on an annual basis and break down the basket of goods for the last fifty years.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:34 | 3394565 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

I agree with you, therefore the question is, has gold lagged the CPI and therefore a poor inflation hedge OR is gold due for a major uptick to reflect the damage to currency?

 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:11 | 3394650 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

An ounce of gold bought $19 in 1913.  It buys about $1600 now, so the dollar has depreciated almost 99% against gold since then.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:55 | 3394763 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

You are correct but the point I am making is how many dollars did the average man take home back then and how many is he taking home today. Or to put it differently what fraction of an ounce were weekly wages back then and how much are they now?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:58 | 3395059 masterinchancery
masterinchancery's picture

According to the US govt, CPI has gone up by a factor of 23.5 since 1913. So gold has roughly quadrupled the general CPI in that period.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 13:22 | 3396424 e-recep
e-recep's picture

the site pricedingold.com is what you need.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:30 | 3394550 khakuda
khakuda's picture

Look, outside of anything made in China, EVERYTHING else has skyrocketed in price over the past 25 years. Home prices, gas prices, stock prices, bond prices, healthcare cost, college costs. Everything but wages as jobs left for China. Thanks a lot Fed. You guys continue to fuck it up. Print some more douchebags and cause prices to go ever higher.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:48 | 3394896 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

The Fed is not f--king it up. It is all going according to plan.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:11 | 3394952 Antifaschistische
Antifaschistische's picture

So, has China saved our economic ass? That case could be made. Personally, I hate junk and never buy it. So, the crap that gets sold at Wal-Mart that's made in China doesn't get my business. But, the productivity of the Chinese people combined with the desperate materialism of American's is slowly draining the wealth pool of America and flowing to China.   The Chinese will eventually have to figure out what to do when the pool of wealth in the US runs dry, but for now...America is still too desperate.    And if you don't like Chinese and have the "i'm a hater" attitude I think you should visit China and see how hard people work every single day of the week with no break just to make a little money.  These people are constantly asking themselves, what can I sell (product or service) to make a buck and they don't care what it is.  Shoes, beads, labor, candy, massages...it's all part of the game.   Holy cow...yesterday I see a Chinese dude on a scooter with 8 five gallon water bottles tied to his scooter to deliver.  This is his livelihood.  I have no idea how he balances that thing or how that could be legal...but no one here cares.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:04 | 3396782 nofluer
nofluer's picture

The Chinese will eventually have to figure out what to do when the pool of wealth in the US runs dry

Already done. They have been shifting their consumer target from the US to domestic. As Chinese wages have risen, the Chinese worker has become "rich" enough to buy that cheap Chinese stuff. Now all they need to do is figure out how to get a handle on their high inflation... and how to breathe in the toxic soup they call an atmosphere.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:30 | 3394553 Peter Pan
Peter Pan's picture

When truly high inflation arrives we can be sure that the government will not follow up with enough printing of high denomination notes. This will force people to use credit cards and bank transfers so as to make all transactions visible to big brother.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:18 | 3394667 TalkToLind
TalkToLind's picture

Those who are in possession of certain barbarous relics won't have to worry about scrutiny from big brother.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:30 | 3395000 Kirk2NCC1701
Kirk2NCC1701's picture

You hope.  But "Hope is not a viable or actionable strategy", as they say.  What they are guaranteed to do, is to impose an extremely high windfall ('speculator') tax at point of sale. 

/You think you can outsmart the small army of IQ> 160 guys that they can afford?  Next move, Einstein?/s

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:56 | 3397773 Tompooz
Tompooz's picture

"all transactions visible"... which ties in nicely with the VAT/GST that is coming.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:31 | 3394555 OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

Printing money - adds to the supply.

Add to the supply - waters it down - devalues it.

Devalued currency = higher production cost = higher consumer price.

Higher consumer prices = inflation. Or, put another way;

Devalued currency induced cost/push inflation. Thats what we have and its getting worse.  

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:11 | 3396807 nofluer
nofluer's picture

"Cost push inflation" ROTFLMBO!!! Keynesian BS always makes me laugh.

The ONLY thing that causes inflation is printing. PERIOD!!!

Please learn to differentiate between "cost" and "price".

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:33 | 3394556 fockewulf190
fockewulf190's picture

Save us Phyzzi-wan-Kenobi, you're our only hope!

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:32 | 3394561 ghandi
ghandi's picture

Wake me when

 

Gas is $20/gallon

Milk is $35/gallon.

 

No inflation, huh.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:54 | 3394619 LawsofPhysics
LawsofPhysics's picture

Speaking of gas/oil, some folks are getting some free oil from exxon.

http://www.pentagonpost.com/exxon-mobil-pipeline-in-arkansas-ruptures-sp...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:33 | 3394563 TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

Inflationary=Apocalyptic

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:45 | 3394566 newengland
newengland's picture

Bull$hit. It's not about inflation now.

It is about nazionists stealing again in a new bigger way.

The Dodd Frank Bill of 2010 allows the theft of U.S. deposits, and Cyprus was the test case to see what people would endure before killing banksters and corrupt politicians.

Go to jsminset.com to see a summary of how the Dodd Frank Bill in its small print aims to steal big. Resist your nanosecond gnat fly impatience, and scroll down for the article ref: the Dodd Frank theft coming soon to your bank balance. Tick tock. Never let a crisis go to waste, say the nazionists.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:14 | 3394799 awakening
awakening's picture

For future reference when this article gets archived, a Tyler Durden has already responded to the above post over here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-31/currency-wars-dummies#comment-3...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:35 | 3394567 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

I'm a greenhorn around here,

I know it's fightclub an all, but I have a question,

What does "Moar" mean?

A straight answer will do, but if ye wanna take a shot, go ahead,

If you wanna swing on a drunk Irishman, that's your choice,

:)

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:41 | 3394582 CH1
CH1's picture

It means "More," but with style and emphasis... unless I'm missing something too. :)

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 01:30 | 3395176 BooMushroom
BooMushroom's picture

Yeah, it's just "more," intentionally misspelled for comedic effect. Many of us have visited some dark corners of the Internet on our journey to Fight Club.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:37 | 3394570 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Google it.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:41 | 3394571 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

I was watching the opening day [baseball] game on tonight & they're all [stadium fans, players, & TV audience] lined up at attention to a color guard of military holding flags, yes, with gold fringes around all the flags & yes, of course, the 'Stars & Stripes' decked out this way, singing the national anthem... Made me want to puke...

~~~

I mean, for crying out loud, they might as well just construct a big Wicker Man out in centerfield, light it ablaze, join hands & goosestep the feathery owl God dance while they work themselves into a trance...

Oh well, tomorrow IS April Fools Day I guess...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:42 | 3394585 newengland
newengland's picture

Bread and circuses. Pity you despise your innocent countrymen, and count your lonely money. They have heart and community, worth more than money, and will cling to each other in good times and bad.

What have you?

You can speak for them or hate them. Choose.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:38 | 3394869 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

New England is right, Francis. Those willfully ignorant automatons will someday shovel you and your kids into shallow graves as they are ordered to do.  So pity them, love them, for they know not, and care not, what they do.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 00:33 | 3395105 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

...a timely easter reminder from RafterMan

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:46 | 3394595 TheSettler
TheSettler's picture

gold fringes around all the flags...does this have meaning...


Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:10 | 3394632 francis_sawyer
francis_sawyer's picture

Admirality Law... Yes it has meaning... It means you're fucked...

~~~

@newengland

'BREAD & CIRCUSES'... Fuck off... If I want to entertain myself watching some boys with sticks play a game, I'm going to do it... Would you prefer I sat up all night by candlelight doing math equations?...

My comment was towards the fact that I can do without the pagan worship [& the shit they slide under the noses of people who don't know any better]...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:27 | 3394680 newengland
newengland's picture

You are poor, francis_sawyer.

So is anyone who puts love of money above love of community. Long after this fiatsco  burns, the community will thrive and prosper, for that is the way of honest folk who truly love each other, for no better reason than love itself.

The USA was founded long before cynics like you. You surrender to Admiralty Law, pet.

Do pay attention to the Dodd Frank Bill of 2010, and the small print. G'luck. You want bread, and like circuses, and will lose both if you carry on hating your countrymen.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:53 | 3394908 Cornfedbloodstool
Cornfedbloodstool's picture

Oh give me a break.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 00:40 | 3395122 Bananamerican
Bananamerican's picture

dear newbyEngland, is it ok if i dislike my countrymen a bit for being large of ass and small of brain these days?

for voting SIXTEEN YEARS worth of blatant bullshit into the White house...

...for their silence, more deafening, more damning than that earned by "the silent majority" back in the day; as their jobs were shifted overseas, as stereo wanton wars of corpoRAT profit were waged, as a security state was constructed around them, as torture was conducted, as banks were bailed out, as borders were opened etc etc....

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:28 | 3394694 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

Admiralty Law -- Not the law of this land, but a legal system both parallel to, and higher than, the law of this land. It is in fact the law of the sea, Uniform Commercial Code, which touches all lands irrespective of nationality, language or ostensible allegiance.

The Stars 'n' Stripes is American, the gold fringe is NWO.

Welcome to ZH... and, uh, fuck off.

(With warmest regard....)

.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:34 | 3394711 newengland
newengland's picture

Well said, Ludwig Van.

No surrender to Admiralty Law, for this is our land, our people, our decision. And the same should be true of every land, in my opinion. Self-determination is a good thing. Patriots can speak to each other honestly.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:40 | 3396683 Thisson
Thisson's picture

Stop perpetrating ignorance.  Admiralty law and the Uniform Commercial Code are two completely unrelated and distinct things. 

Admiralty law is the law of the sea.  Uniform Commercial Code is a default set of rules for interpreting contract law for use in contracts between businesses.  It has been enacted into state law in most US states. 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:57 | 3394769 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

it's about jurisdiction, suspended constitution, bankruptcy, martial, admiralty and maritime law

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:38 | 3394868 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

 

MILITARY FLAG WITH THE GOLD FRINGE

Martial Law Flag "Pursuant to 4 U.S.C. chapter 1, §§1, 2, & 3; Executive Order 10834, August 21, 1959; 24 F.R.6865; a military flag is a flag that resembles the regular flag of the United States, except that it has a YELLOW FRINGE border on three sides. The President of the United States designates this deviation from the regular flag, by executive order, and in his capacity as Commander-in-Chief of the military. The placing of a fringe on the national flag, the dimensions of the flag and the arrangement of the stars in the union are matters of detail not controlled by statute, but are within the discretion of the President as Commander in Chief of the Army and Navy." 34 Ops. Atty. Gen. 83.

President, Dwight David Eisenhower, by Executive Order No.10834, signed on August 21, 1959 and printed in the Federal Register at 24 F.R. 6865, pursuant to law, stated that: "A military flag is a flag that resembles the regular flag of the United States, except that it has a yellow fringe border on three sides."

THE LAW OF THE FLAG

The Law of the Flag, an International Law, which is recognized by every nation of the planet, is defined as:

"... a rule to the effect that a vessel is a part of the territory of the nation whose flag she flies. The term is used to designate the RIGHTS under which a ship owner, who sends his vessel into a foreign port, gives notice by his flag to all who enter into contracts with the ship master that he intends the Law of that Flag to regulate those contracts, and that they must either submit to its operation or not contract with him or his agent at all." Ref.: Ruhstrat v. People, 57 N.E. 41

By the doctrine of "four cornering" the flag establishes the law of the country that it represents. For example, the embassies of foreign countries, in Washington D.C., are "four cornered" by walls or fencing, creating an "enclave." Within the boundaries of the "enclave" of the foreign embassy, the flag of that foreign country establishes the jurisdiction and law of that foreign country, which will be enforced by the Law of the Flag and international treaty. If you enter an embassy, you will be subject to the laws of that country, just as if you board a ship flying a foreign flag, you will be subject to the laws of that flag, enforceable by the "master of the ship," (Captain), by the law of the flag.

When you enter a courtroom displaying a gold or yellow fringed flag, you have just entered into a foreign country, and you better have your passport with you, because you may not be coming back to the land of the free for a long time. The judge sitting under a gold or yellow fringe flag becomes the "captain" or "master" of that ship or enclave and he has absolute power to make the rules as he goes. The gold or yellow fringe flag is your warning that you are leaving your Constitutionally secured RIGHTS on the floor outside the door to that courtroom.

This is exactly why so many judges are appointed, and not elected by the people. The Federal judges are appointed by the President, the national military commander in chief. The State judges are appointed by the Governors, the state military commanders. The judges are appointed because the courts are military courts and civilians do not "elect" military officers.

Under martial law, you are presumed guilty until proven innocent.

The gold-fringed flag only stands inside military courts that sit in summary court martial proceedings against civilians and such courts are governed in part by local rules, but more especially by "The Manual of Courts Martial", U.S., 1994 Ed., at Art. 99, (c)(1)(b), pg. IV-34, PIN 030567-0000, U.S. Government Printing Office, Wash. D.C. The details of the crimes that civilians can commit, that are classed as 'Acts of War,' cover 125 pages in the Manual of Courts Martial.

Under Article IV, section 3, of the Constitution for the united States of America, no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State. So -- Why have the judges of the State and Federal courts been allowed to erect foreign enclaves within our public courthouses under a foreign flag with the yellow fringe upon the soil of your state?

We just thought you would like to know, so that the next time you see this yellow fringed flag you will know what you are looking at and what it really means. If you are in Spain and you see the National Flag of Spain, you would know that you are under the jurisdiction of Spain; and their laws govern you at this time. You are officially NOTICED when you see their flag. This is an admiralty law that says that all who see this flag understand they are governed by the laws of the country that this flag represents. You SHOULD understand that the gold or yellow fringed flag signifies the same thing. It is a notice to you that you are under the rules and regulations of the military force that is flying that flag.

Are you familiar with martial law?

Does your attorney understand what this flag means?

"It is an elementary rule of pleading, that a plea to the jurisdiction is a tacit (silent) admission that the court has a right to judge the case and is a waiver to all exception to the jurisdiction."(Girty v. Logan, 6 Bush KY, 8)

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:55 | 3394914 Pseudo Anonym
Pseudo Anonym's picture

this is the key:

"It is an elementary rule of pleading, that a plea to the jurisdiction is a tacit (silent) admission that the court has a right to judge the case and is a waiver to all exception to the jurisdiction."(Girty v. Logan, 6 Bush KY, 8)

jurisdiction comes from law, not from a flag.  the flag does not determine the law.  anybody who pleads in such court voluntarily submits himself to the court's jurisdiction.  many cases failed due to a wrong argument after they sumbited themselves to the court's jurisdiction.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 14:45 | 3396707 Thisson
Thisson's picture

What's your fucking point?  "Personal Jurisdiction," a concept familira to every first year law student, is completely irrelevant to this thread. 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:53 | 3394615 FiatFapper
FiatFapper's picture

The patriotic hypnosis would make hitler proud; the lyrics crack me up...

And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:41 | 3394726 newengland
newengland's picture

And it is not permissible to down vote 'fiatfapper'...nazionist funding ZH? Unless down vote is permitted by ZH.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:59 | 3394929 Dapper Dan
Dapper Dan's picture

And who is not patriotic?

 

How Big Corporations are Unpatriotic by RALPH NADER

Many giant profitable U.S. corporations are increasingly abandoning America while draining it at the same time.

General Electric, for example, has paid no federal income taxes for a decade while becoming a net job exporter and fighting its hard-pressed workers who want collective bargaining through unions like the United Electrical Workers Union (UE). GE’s boss, Jeffrey Immelt, makes about $12,400 an hour on an 8-hour day, plus benefits and perks, presiding over this global corporate empire.

Telling by their behavior, these big companies think patriotism toward the country where they were created and prospered is for chumps. Their antennae point to places where taxes are very low, labor is wage slavery, independent unions are non-existent, governments have their hands out, and equal justice under the rule of law does not exist. China, for example, has fit that description for over 25 years.

Other than profiteering from selling Washington very expensive weapons of mass destruction, many multinational firms have little sense of true national security.

Did you know that about 80 percent of the ingredients in medicines Americans take now come from China and India where visits by FDA inspectors are infrequent and inadequate?

More at: http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/03/29/how-big-corporations-are-unpatriotic/

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:39 | 3394572 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

And buy silver NOW!

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:39 | 3394577 Silver Garbage Man
Silver Garbage Man's picture

Homer......USA...USA.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:44 | 3394590 ISEEIT
ISEEIT's picture

Oh come on now...The swarmy little punk on forex live tells us that "the tin-foil hat morons" who worship gold are complete idiots.

All less than 30 years of 'education' have taught his poor little self to apparently actually belive this?

But the TRUTH is that on a long enough timeline ( not very much longer at all)

Bitchez are going to get schooled in reality.

It's the "no brainer" truth of eternity.

Bullshit fails and Truth walks.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:45 | 3394592 andrewp111
andrewp111's picture

We may not be done with deflation yet. A collapse of the Eurozone could be the final deflationary event. Then the mad money printing really goes into high gear.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:34 | 3394716 ekm
ekm's picture

That is bad deflation you're talking about.

There's good deflation and bad deflation

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:47 | 3394596 H E D G E H O G
H E D G E H O G's picture

wtf. "We've not experienced the concomitant increase in prices, which is what we're addressing in this article." This is as far as I got. Looks like you fuckers don't eat, drive, or get paid regularly. When is the last fucking time you bought a loaf of bread? Put gas in your cars? Buy any necessity? INFLATION is unequivically running @ least 10 percent, NOT the 2percent that the fucking government wants you to believe. What makes this whole charade harder to stomach is the powers that be want to replace it with a new and improved way of impoverishment with the "CHAINED CONSUMER PRICE INDEX", whereas that loaf of bread is replaced by a box of crackers. That pound of hamburger with cat or dog food, and that car or truck you're desparately trying to keep on the road and paying $5, 6, or more for a gallon of gas will give way to fucking walking to work at McDonalds. I believe it's way overdue to start publishing the addresses of every asshole that has anything to do with making any rule, law, or judgement that has to do with anything that concerns my life, and yours. (just so we all know where to send a thank you note).

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:53 | 3394611 One of We
One of We's picture

^ This! Amen! Can I get a witness?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:52 | 3394614 newengland
newengland's picture

But those who make the rules don't publish their address, and demand ours. This is tyranny.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:21 | 3394675 KickIce
KickIce's picture

The USDA is currenty doing its part to curb inflation by forecasting huge acreage planting, the farmers are still trying to figure out from where exactly.  Too bad most of your food cost is tied to bloated overheads so not sure how effective it will be.  Since we have no gold standard and hence the currencies of the world our measured on relative strength, I think it will require a shortage of some to really drive up prices.  This spring should be interesting, grain prices have been high and livestock prices low, so mant farmers chose culling their herds rather than taking it in the shorts with high feed costs.

Watch China for high prices as well, if it hits there it will certainly get us.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:00 | 3394932 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

perhaps they cut back on the amount of acreage they pay not to be grown...

fwiw, I have medium term d/s targets for beans of $11.50-11.80...and $2.15 for copper

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:37 | 3395019 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Maybe, but some are also thinking drought conditions will cominue.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:45 | 3394888 RafterManFMJ
RafterManFMJ's picture

Your passion has aroused me Hedgehog. As soon as I've taken in a steam, I'll ask my butler if what you say is true.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 05:00 | 3395278 IrritableBowels
IrritableBowels's picture

Bastards even inflated Taco Mix.  It used to be 1.25 oz., now most are 1.0...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:47 | 3396044 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

(just so we all know where to send a thank you note)

or, "high-speed lead poisoning," a term a deer-hunting friend coined.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:47 | 3394597 Rastadamus
Rastadamus's picture

I just hope they wait a few more years and then I'll be ready for a party

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:48 | 3394598 loveyajimbo
loveyajimbo's picture

Japan has huge deficits... and they have been in a deflationary slump for many years... as long as the velocity of money is dropping, and it is, deflation is the worry... gold still may be OK...

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:55 | 3394621 newengland
newengland's picture

Deflation is the least of Japan's worry now, given their proximity to the international money wars: Fukishima poisoning them, and North Korea wanting to kill them, soon.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 09:50 | 3395626 sunnyside
sunnyside's picture

Japans list of worries in importance:

1. demographics

2. energy

3. radiation poison

4. feaky ass population into weird kinky shit

5. China

.......

420. North Korea.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:48 | 3394599 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

Ok so prices are going to go up, but where do we pick up our wheelbarrow's of cash?  After cashing our payroll checks?

 

These are the things I need to know to prepare for the upcoming hyperinflation!!!

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:48 | 3394600 adr
adr's picture

Ha, CPI figures.

Two years ago a Star Wars figure was $6.99. Now the same figure is $9.99.

I could go on and on with more and more figures that mock the official CPI number.

We have had 30%+ inflation across the board over the last three years.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:53 | 3394757 Tuffmug
Tuffmug's picture

Demand did not cause that price increase. Stupid brainwashed consumers willing to pay too much for a branded crappy toy allowed the producer to jack the price up.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:17 | 3394809 ekm
ekm's picture

Shortage of raw materials caused it

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 15:03 | 3396778 e-recep
e-recep's picture

indeed. rising costs are pushing the prices up, not the airhead consumer.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:42 | 3394875 dark_matter
dark_matter's picture

This is why I have transferred all my wealth into Chuckee Cheese tokens. Each token still buys the same number of kiddie car rides and turns in the ball pit as it did 20 years ago. Plus the tokens are backed by the full faith and credit of the Chuckee Cheese Corporation which is now more credible than the US government.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:48 | 3394603 One of We
One of We's picture

I have to disagree with the premise that we have not seen inflation yet. A few years ago I was able to buy lean ground beef for $1.99/lb. Now I can find it occasionally for as low as $3.50/lb and with all the stories about pink slime and dog/horse/mystery meat diluting the actual quantity of what I'm trying to buy (beef) I'm not only paying more per pound but likely getting less of what I think I'm buying in each pound. I also used to get quarts of spaghetti sauce that are now 28oz and half-gallons of ice cream that are now a quart and a half and pay more now than I did for the larger (and probably purer) quantity just a few years ago.....

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:58 | 3394626 newengland
newengland's picture

The honest person pays. The dishonest person plays  official 'inflation' figures, and profits from that lie.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:50 | 3394605 NoWayJose
NoWayJose's picture

To believe in inflation, you must recognize that the Fed's goal is to inflate housing prices in order to get all of the underwater mortgages held by the big banks back to even. They are covering up the huge losses that would show up using mark-to-market prices. The Fed will print until that happens, and who believes they can stop without overshooting the inflation? I don't. They are already running too hot with everything except housing and wages.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:03 | 3394633 newengland
newengland's picture

Old men fight yesterday's war with young men's blood and money.

This story is pure bull$hit.

The Frank Dodd Bill of 2010 has given CONgress paid by its biggest banksters the right to steal even bigger beyond the silent theft of inflation.

CONgress now has the power to steal deposits in the U.S. to bail out insolvent banks which bribe CONgress. That was in the small print of the Dodd Frank Bill of 2010.

All this whining about inflation is yesterday's war, for the sophists.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:51 | 3394608 bugs_
bugs_'s picture

Here in the Deflationists' Lounge we are quite worried about this inflation thing but we've been hearing about it for a long time

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 00:25 | 3395093 Just Ice
Just Ice's picture

lol...and we all know very well the earth is cubed, not flat

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 20:58 | 3394628 BigDuke6
BigDuke6's picture

It reminds me of Hemingway

"How did you go bankrupt?"

"At first slowly...
Then very quickly"

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:00 | 3394629 Ribeye
Ribeye's picture

I live in a socialist hellhole, but I love the US Constitution, and I would give my life for Ron Paul, and I currently have a broken hand from fighting against the corrupt Irish police force,

And what are you lot doing?

In the land of the free,

FCK ALL,

I can't even come to the US, coz I'm on the "no fly list"

For fck sake, will you please fight,

Coz if we lose America, there's nowheree left,

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:02 | 3394636 Alcoholic Nativ...
Alcoholic Native American's picture

Fuck off.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:35 | 3394692 KickIce
KickIce's picture

Sober up and maybe you won't be such a douche?

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 23:51 | 3395053 SubjectivObject
SubjectivObject's picture

Guise n grrills, if we can with justifiable conviction tell Benanke and every of his ilk to fuck off, for what they've done and will continue to do to us, then, AmerIndians can justifiably tell we all USlessA's to fuck off.  It's only fair.  After all, and too, we have let the Iroquois contribution to the constitution of our civilization be trampled for lack of attention.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 07:23 | 3395363 A82EBA
A82EBA's picture

We chose to go into debt instead

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:09 | 3394649 newengland
newengland's picture

Fight for our Republic, friend. Yes, we will. Best wishes to you and yours. 

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:28 | 3394696 DirkDiggler11
DirkDiggler11's picture

Well spoken Ribeye.

"If we lose America, there's nowhere left".

People should really think about that statement.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 21:43 | 3394735 debtandtaxes
debtandtaxes's picture

Like Ireland, Canada is owned by elite families owned by bigger and older European elite families.

So far our owners in Canada are more benevolent than those in Ireland, Greece and Cyprus.

So far.....

Ribeye is right. If you "crazy" Yankees don't revolt, the rest of the world never will.

Sheeple everywhere need a "good example". But many people will die providing it.

Sun, 03/31/2013 - 22:40 | 3394876 Debt Slave
Debt Slave's picture

The election of 2012 proved that we (the producers) have already lost America. Keep stacking.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 00:47 | 3395130 Ludwig Van
Ludwig Van's picture

"If we lose America, there's nowhere left."

People should really think about that statement.

.

Yeah, I've been thinking about that. Been thinking about 1.6 billion rounds of H.P. on order by USG. Been thinking about ~300 million guns & rifles held by Americans, and that if each weapon was accompanied by a thousand rounds -- average more or less (realistic? dunno, maybe) -- then that's 3.0 billion rounds *in hand.*

Been thinking about how many tough guys it would take (tough irrespective of sex), and the number 5 million keeps coming to mind. Five million could retake it. For some uncanny reason, I believe it.

Been thinking about leadership. No quaint and easy formula comes to mind: The work would have to be diffused but coordinated, wide, wide spread but concentrated. Need a leader, a lot of leaders, seasoned guys to get the others up and back into that *next* skirmish.

Been thinking about a vision. That comes fun and easy -- thinking about my niece's 13th birthday party yesterday, my son who'll turn 5 this year. It's in there somewhere, the vision. It's what a man or woman would die for without question.

So maybe I've got it backward: Vision first, the rest will come.

.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 11:55 | 3396076 FreeNewEnergy
FreeNewEnergy's picture

If five million is the number, then I suggest we start with farmers and then move down the chain to gardeners (junior farmers). These are the people who are the backbone of our nation. They are hale and hearty and will fight. And most of them are pretty handy with firearms and machines, engines, etc.

The rest can just watch on Teevee. This revolution will be televised.

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