Europe Back To 19th Century Growth Rates

Tyler Durden's picture

Long-term growth conditions in Spain, Italy and France are as weak as they have been (other than during wartime) in over a century. The chart below tells the story. As JPMorgan's Michael Cembalest notes, while European sovereign debt spreads have rallied across the board, European bank lending to households and businesses is still declining, and the cost of small business loans in Italy and Spain is higher than both real and nominal growth. With ECB policy now clearly useless given Europe's fragmentation, and with Germany's forward expectations rolling over, it is hard to see how, absent wholesale devaluation and/or inflation (or as Cembalest notes destruction & rebuilding), Europe will recover from this.



Charts: JPMorgan

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SheepDog-One's picture

Better than expected!!

DJ Happy Ending's picture

I am long fiefdoms and the dark ages

McMolotov's picture

Yes, Europe is back to 19th century growth rates and headed for 13th century feudalism.

BaBaBouy's picture

And The ONLY WINNER In This Fecking Debacle IS ....................


King Of EVERY Market ... SacksManGOLD ...

BaBaBouy's picture

OT ...

Noat ... Plat & Pal Soaring On Russian Plan For Cartel Type.

AU & AG will rocket when CB's Lose Cuntrol ...


redpill's picture

More OT.


New ad "He weighs 170.  He benches 420."

Maybe so, but the ZH comment section will still drink you under the table, pussy! 

pods's picture

But what is his personal best in the Dwarf Toss?


Dr Paul Krugman's picture

We should go back on a gold standard (wonkish).

Europe’s Second Depression:

DoChenRollingBearing's picture


That's because they are not Socialist enough.

Ahmeexnal's picture

War is Peace!
Freedon is Slavery!
Ignorance is Strength!
Debt is Wealth!
Real Wealth is a Barbarous Relic!
Retreating is Advancing!
Backwards is FORWARD!

slightlyskeptical's picture

The difference is who the printing was for. In the 30's the printing was used to rebuild. Today the printing is to bail out banks and an economy that cannot stand on it's own.  Fed policies are propping up a failed system. Let's get real the conomy right now is nothing but a redo of "Weekend at Bernie's"

tarsubil's picture

What is wonkish about that article? BS stats thrown up next to each other. Wow, very impressive. Don't you get tired of carrying all the secrets?

Sudden Debt's picture

the only problem is that there's a few more people since the 19th century....
how... could they... FIX THIS?!?!?

Sudden Debt's picture


Only problem is... where are they?
are we alone after all?.... this is... not good...


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Paul Krugman supports your message.  Alien battlecruisers would break lots of windows over in Europe.

Ahmeexnal's picture

USSS LeMay is about to launch a few more "meteorites" like the one hurled at Chelyabinsk a few weeks ago.

RafterManFMJ's picture

Just need a shower of asteroids. They break windows. Um, set them to explode in the atmosphere though...impact is not so good.

redpill's picture


Mototard at Large's picture

Unfortunately, if this keeps going we might get more war....  Having attended a war once while wearing a uniform and carrying a gun, I do  think this whole war thing is over rated.  Systemic war at the Euro/North Atlantic level will do no one good.

francis_sawyer's picture

BITCOINS are certain to put us all back on track to the UNLIMITED GROWTH ON A FINITE PLANET paradigm...

DoChenRollingBearing's picture

+ $101 for sarcasm that even a Bearing can understand!

francis_sawyer's picture

"101' [or was it "102", I forget]... I see what you did there :-)...

Sudden Debt's picture

That answer deserves a mMONEY PRICE!!!

wait.. let me create some money for you...




HERE ARE... 50 BITCOINS FOR YOU!!! >>°*0011101101<<<

just print this text and show it when you go shopping... I'm sure you'll be able to pay your groceries with it...

Ghordius's picture

mhh... "19th century growth rates and headed for 13th century feudalism" in both centuries we had a few free cities

Jonas Parker's picture

Note to self: buy "Serf Torch & Pitchfork Co." shares...

Sudden Debt's picture


Martial's picture

Yep this is bullish all the way!

Ancona's picture

Depression.....not just for depressed people any more. I wonder how long before this shit is happening here?

Sudden Debt's picture

... you guys have OBarry to save you all...

so... America... 110% debt to GDP... a industry base that makes... whatever... and a lot of...


pods's picture

Take away our monetization of 8-10% of GDP yearly, and, ummm, about 5 years ago.


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

@ Ancona

Kind of makes you wonder how many people in Europe are depressed.

And then what will happen here (which will happen after FRANCE goes down)?

Sudden Debt's picture

We'll be fine here in Europe...


DoChenRollingBearing's picture

Doesn't do a Bearing much good that gave up drinking...

Ahmeexnal's picture

Zoloft in high concentrations is being added to the water supply (along with fluorides, estrogens, and other "FREE" goodies).

RafterManFMJ's picture

Sweet! Add moar Estrogen! I've always wanted my own set of tig ol' bitties!

Jason T's picture

fascinating ... yeah, productivity, which is gotton from REAL INVESTMENT where WORK is required is poor and hence, you get shitty productivity growth.  Europe is done for and US productivity mind you sucks too... it's only Asia that is rising for real.

q99x2's picture

Destruction and rebuilding. Dudes probably depressed that the asteroid missed us.

WTF_247's picture

Thats as bullish a signal as I have ever seen.  EURUSD should trade to at least 1.6 on that, European debt prices should rocket as should stocks - all in.

otto skorzeny's picture

ECB does not have ability to print the shit out of their currency like The Fed-does that make it more valuable in and of itself?

Yen Cross's picture

    I guess this means JPMorgue is now short European sovereign debt.

JustObserving's picture

Europe should hire some US BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) personnel.  They are experts at creating the growth you want - especially through hedonic adjustments.

the not so mighty maximiza's picture

1862 was a good year for playing the hermonica

Navymugsy's picture

All we need is some black plague and we are on the road to recovery!

WTF_247's picture

That would be mega-bullish. Imagine how the unemployment levels would drop if half the population died.  Plus get rid of the older generation that is "taking" - in the ground = more for the rest of us.  

SS solved.  Disability = solved.  Medicare = solved. Old people taking jobs from younger workers = solved

Man - this seems almost like a Cinderella scenario ...

machineh's picture

If black plague don't exist, we'll have to invest it.

Svendblaaskaeg's picture

"All we need is some black plague.."

No thank you, I take white, like my men (Airplane, modified quote)

kito's picture

such a shame they dont have an agressive, competent, focused and GENEROUS central bank master like we do..........................

Mototard at Large's picture

Derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction which could unwind during a crisis. Here is a simple explanation of what they are and why they can be both good and dangerous. It is written in plain language by ex-central bankers for a non-specialist audience. With the current “difficulties” in Cyprus about to spread, it will be curious to see if derivatives raise their ugly heads again. Who knows how much exposure the TBTF banks have once things unwind a bit?