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Global Economic Slowdown Accelerates Again

Tyler Durden's picture





 

It would appear that between the historical revisions of over-optimistic initial prints in macro data in the last few months and the reality of the weakness in Europe; the global economy is in Slowdown. Goldman's Swirlogram has now seen its Global Leading Indicator in the 'slowdown' phase for two months as momentum fades rapidly and seven of the ten major factors in the index declining with Global (Aggregate) PMI, and Global New Orders-less-Inventories worsening. Quite comically, the three factors providing some positivity are the Baltic Dry Index (which we are told is irrelevant when it drops), Japanese Inventory/Sales (which improved but remains at depression-era levels), and US initial jobless claims (which have become a farce statistically from what we can tell). Of course, none of this macro reality matters for now - until it does that is.

 

The red arrows show the relative size of adjustments from the initial estimates...

 

 

and the last 3 days have seen the biggest drop in US macro data in 9 months...

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs

 


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Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment Alpo for Granny
Alpo for Granny's picture

That first swirly thing looks like this weekend's gold chart.

http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:49 | Link to Comment dbarrett
dbarrett's picture

I think you will like this better than kitco....

http://www.gold-price-girls.com/graphs/#Gold

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:54 | Link to Comment TheGermanGuy
TheGermanGuy's picture

Looks like a flushing toilet!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment King_of_simpletons
King_of_simpletons's picture

Mr. Bernanke has a simple fix for this -  increase bond buying to $125 Billion per month.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

waht happens to monetary V ? 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:09 | Link to Comment fourchan
fourchan's picture

falcon punch?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:07 | Link to Comment OutLookingIn
OutLookingIn's picture

The craps going down!

Tue, 04/02/2013 - 02:07 | Link to Comment TwoShortPlanks
TwoShortPlanks's picture

Plot velocity and displacement of a small rocket flown vertically......where did the energy for the flight come from in the first place? The chemical motor, right?!

Where did the energy for the 12 month GLI rocket flight come from?

Operation Twist: more 'Bang for Ya Buck' than ongoing Fed purchases?
http://ochousingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Fed-vs-SP.jpg

Is there a correlation (with 6mth lag) between the S&P uplift from OpTwist and the GLI Accel on graph above? (NOTE: QE3 did nothing!)

If so, we're merely buying short rocket flights in markets which temporarily drags up the economy, but they're debt nonetheless, and they're not being paid for.

I'm sure some smarty-pants could calculate the time, or number of iterations, to the drain.

If history repeats, I'd say Montagu Norman is on the boat to see Andrew Mellon right now.

DRAIN. HOLE. ECONOMY.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:46 | Link to Comment prodigious_idea
prodigious_idea's picture
"I think you will like this better than kitco...."
I agree, except that I switched the chart to 10 years.  Looks a little different than the 1 year sound-bite doesn't it?
Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:43 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

April fools!!! Oh wait back to reality.....

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

It's all due to crude oil price.

 

Re: youtube video this mornng. Available for viewing only in USA

What was it about?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:50 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

It showed  Reagan giving a speech and this guy:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Regan

leaning over and telling him to speed it up (maybe try this one)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NR3RqMMIwD4

and Regan reacted like a scolded lap dog. The point is you had a banker pull the President strings like he was a toy.

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:56 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Oh, I've seen that one.

No different with Bush clinton bush obama.

 

Obama even shows it blatantly he doesn't have the reins. He's on vacations most of the time. At least Bush stopped playing golf during iraq war, but obama doesn't even care to show he's got no pull on anything.

 

He's just letting them fight each other off I'd say and he'll speak with the winner.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment fonzannoon
fonzannoon's picture

But I thought you said it's the President's call to make?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:05 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Yes. Legally it's the presindent only who makes the call, nobody else.

 

You won't have the boss of Bechtel or Lockheed or GS's Lloyd Blankfein show up on TV and make a decision or sign executive orders, that's what I mean.

 

Obama was and is a community organizer. He has no capacity to understand strategy, nuclear weapons, derivatives. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:16 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

Take obamacare for example. It's the worst thing ever devised and it only shifts money from people to insurance companies.

It is not single payer like in Canada or fully liberalized like before in USA. 

 

It is like Car Insurance. You are obligated to buy car insurance hence you are obligated to give money to private corporations.

Same with obamacare, you will be obligated to buy health insurance from private corporations.

 

It's not socialism, it's not capitalism. Obamacare is typical faschism. Why? Because that's what they told him to do. He's got no clue anyway.

Tue, 04/02/2013 - 01:40 | Link to Comment TBT or not TBT
TBT or not TBT's picture

Uh, no. You can opt out of buying insurance for a penalty, you know the penalty the supreme court called a tax, therefore constitutional. But the two catches here are the penalty is MUCH less than the cost of insurance, but get this, if you get an illness you need insurance for, you can buy it at that time, AFTER the I sured event has occurred, and insurance companies cannot refuse. Guaranteed red ink for insurance companies, forced to pay for, not "insure," simply pay for, treatment of catastrophic illnesses or injuries to persons who are not paying customers, routinely.

So you have it exactly backwards. The Democrat staffers and lobbyists who wrote this thin designed to DESTROY private health insurance in the USA. It is designed to create a crisis in which government will be positioned to nationalize the healthcare segment of the economy.

Note that, at the same time it incentivizes businesses to drop insurance for millions of people all at once, dumping them into the pool of uninsured people, future giant liabilities for insurance companies who'll be forced o take them on at a loss. In response, they must raise prices to paying customers or go out of business, and ideally both, the better to create crisis into which the progressivist control freaks can invade and metastasize into this last bastion of individuals lives.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 20:08 | Link to Comment ekm
ekm's picture

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2013/04/transpacific-partnership-threaten...

Fresh. This is how the president leads, by ......doing nothing.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment TeamDepends
TeamDepends's picture

How can a slowdown accelerate?  Physics was never our strong suit.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:46 | Link to Comment whisperin
whisperin's picture

Its kinda like when the working end of your "depends" begins to grow exponentially.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:00 | Link to Comment falak pema
falak pema's picture

when you press the brakes you accelerate the deceleration. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment NoDebt
NoDebt's picture

It's like when you hit the brakes in your car harder and harder.  You're experiencing an accelerating rate of deceleration.  Second derivative, baby!

Once the car stops, rate of acceleration (first derivative) and rate of change in acceleration (second derivative) both go to zero.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:36 | Link to Comment Carl Spackler
Carl Spackler's picture

Easy one... MOVE the goal line.

We have "experts" at the Department of Labor who know how to do this !

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:54 | Link to Comment Bastiat
Bastiat's picture

32ft/sec^2

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:44 | Link to Comment Gamma735
Gamma735's picture

What will be the final shock to our non-functioning system?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:57 | Link to Comment McMolotov
McMolotov's picture

We'll learn Bernanke is a robot sent from the future to destroy us.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment Caviar Emptor
Caviar Emptor's picture

This was predicted. There are many causes. Some have nothing whatsoever to do with "markets". The big game plays on

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 17:47 | Link to Comment dbarrett
dbarrett's picture

With M2 money supply growth slowing sharply over the past few weeks (although its still at a heady 9% y-y or so), we might see the recent strong US numbers also start to disappoint expectations. Of course, that will just mean more QE. I don't think anyone knows how effective that will be at this stage other than it will have diminishing returns. 

Silver sucks. And by that I mean the price action, not the physical metal. I think institutions are becoming non-believers as it continues to underperform. That means it gives us more time to accumulate at cheaper prices....probably down today because today's Gold Price Girl sucks!

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:29 | Link to Comment dogbreath
dogbreath's picture

I bet she can.  Nice skin too.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:02 | Link to Comment brace_brace_brace
Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment IridiumRebel
IridiumRebel's picture

Why?

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 20:39 | Link to Comment Go Tribe
Go Tribe's picture

+1000

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment Mr.Sono
Mr.Sono's picture

Looks like a death spiral, to me.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:08 | Link to Comment disabledvet
disabledvet's picture

i'm a big fan of "sea shell geometry" for what's it worth. (off the charts on the dorko meter again?) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seashell_surface while most vis a vis markets talk in turns of "mean reversion" (the Jack and the Beanstalk hypothesis) i think a more interesting "representation" is the math behind "crawling in your shell" vs "expanding your shell" as "exponentialism" runs wild these days. it's kind of a "geometry as lazy investing" approach which still allows for the possibility to "poke you head (or is it your foot?) out once in a while to get some food." some of these things used to be huge "back in the day": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parapuzosia_seppenradensis it think the ideas behind this market move are similar in scope and scale to that ancient and now extinct mollusk.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:46 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Yup, Fibonacci or Golden Spiral.

All those Trillions of FED calcium, and growth spirals inward as debt spirals outward.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:09 | Link to Comment blindman
blindman's picture

http://www.fdic.gov/about/srac/2012/2012-01-25_minutes.pdf
The Meeting of the Systemic Resolution Advisory Committee
of the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
Held in the Board Room
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Building
Washington, D.C.
Open to Public Observation
January 25, 2012 8:45 A.M.
.
FDIC & Bank of England Create Resolution Authority for Unlimited Cyprus-Style “Bail-Ins” for TBTF Banks!
http://silverdoctors.com/fdic-bank-of-england-create-resolution-authorit...

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:09 | Link to Comment Goldilocks
Goldilocks's picture

Fool's Overture Roger Hodgson w Orchestra
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aWDxuhD0FI (10:42)

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:13 | Link to Comment Yen Cross
Yen Cross's picture

     Three days of shitty U.S. macro news, mediocre news out of China and Japan, outright theft/confiscation in Europe, and all I got was a measly (7 spx) points? We need a chainsaw to cut through the wall of market complacency.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:24 | Link to Comment Doode
Doode's picture

Slowdown accelerates - a funny one. We must slowdown the slowdown acceleration then and put it in reverse. I am scared to think of what that would look like sentence wise.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:31 | Link to Comment ebworthen
ebworthen's picture

Does the toilet flush clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere?

Either way that is our savings, retirement, and future being flushed by the central banking and financial warlocks in collusion with their legislative and judicial homunculi.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:33 | Link to Comment Iam Yue2
Iam Yue2's picture

There is no growth looking ahead. Market likely to correct 10% over the next four months. Year high is now in. Nikkei trade vis a vis eurostox is massively over crowded.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 18:47 | Link to Comment The Alarmist
The Alarmist's picture

Pshaw! Everything will be golden right up to 2017 when the next President Bush takes the reins from Barak the Kind. There will never, ever be another recession again.

/sarc>

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 21:52 | Link to Comment HalinCA
HalinCA's picture

A Repubican President?  Unlikely, for at least 12 years ....

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:17 | Link to Comment Aquarius
Aquarius's picture

The simple fact is that "leadership" is comprised of self-interest, monied and very powerful groups which are fighting for the greater portion of the wealth, assets and control of global resources. The US paradigm supports this for US organizations and accordingly will continue to bring military chaos to destroy nations and peoples it considers future markets belonging to the US.

The West, led by the dying and mad USA is in the state of "extremis" and wrenching from its cancerous infection that has now invaded the minds of formerly sane men and women; The State of Fascism always marks the final measure of insanity.

"leadership" is not trained, prepared or interested in the art, intellect or reason of governance and besides, the more chaos that is imposed on the World, the better the US sees the future - of the US. Look at the US history in colonialization and you will see that the only social building it has ever engaged in has been flopshops and bars and ripping the heart out of cultures that have taken millenea to emerge.

There is no difference between the US today and the end days of the Roman Empire; none, but the details which are insignficant, compared to the trend.

None see the Big Picture which is merely the biggest and most enormous social failure of humanity ever to be recorded in written history, that is to say, if one hand is left standing.

Why? Simply due to the fact that as a Society, we function "subjectively" and not "objectively". So, our milieu of natural physics takes it course, to protect life from the human disease.

Interestingly, speaking of pardigms, the Eastern or Shaman traditional Philosophies that the US is so bent on destroying, all have concordance with Nature at the heart of he who listens, while the sword of the Western "religions" (institutionalized militant recruitment strategies and centers) all carry the cry to Nature to yield to the might of man. But, to the West, this is also ignored to favour wealth, power, and imposition amidst destruction, thoughtlessness and lust.

Why do we feed the dedicated drunk which knows not but drooling lust, and to whom we have no intention of helping, and worse, cannot be helped?

Ho hum

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:24 | Link to Comment Legolas
Legolas's picture

<sarc>

Does this mean we might have a recession?

</sarc>

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:26 | Link to Comment tictawk
tictawk's picture

It seems to me that the Fed is monetizing annual deficit but that's it.  So there is still a deflationary force prevailing as the economy slowly winds down and this is ominous given that with ZIRP the economy cannot gain any real traction. 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:31 | Link to Comment Clowns on Acid
Clowns on Acid's picture

Acceleration of the de-acceleration of the economy leads to acceleration of Bernanke's printing press and a de-acceleration individual freedoms.

Now this leads to the acceleration of the de-acceleration of Bernanke and his pack of smirking jackals influence on the price of pms.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 19:52 | Link to Comment robertocarlos
robertocarlos's picture

Water swirls the other way in the northern hemisphere.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 20:32 | Link to Comment logicalman
logicalman's picture

How can a slowdown accelerate???!!

 

 

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 22:00 | Link to Comment MichiganMilitiaMan
MichiganMilitiaMan's picture

How can an inflation stimulate??

Tue, 04/02/2013 - 02:26 | Link to Comment Pareto
Pareto's picture

2nd derivative > 0

Tue, 04/02/2013 - 04:14 | Link to Comment css1971
css1971's picture

There's a fuck of a lot of noise there though.

Mon, 04/01/2013 - 21:56 | Link to Comment MichiganMilitiaMan
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