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Jack 'Buy-And-Hold' Bogle Goes Offscript - Two 50% Declines To Come In Next Decade
Buy-and-hold is alive and well and living (ubiquitously) in the Vanguard funds, courtesy of Jack Bogle. Invest for the long-term, stay the course, stocks beat bonds over the long-term; he trotted them all out in a recent CNBC clip but then left the permabull host speechless when he noted:
- *JACK BOGLE SEES 2 DECLINES UP TO 50% OVER NEXT DECADE
Of course, investors should not wait for these dips to buy (he suggests), as no one can time the markets. Better to hold your nose, feel lucky, and drip-feed your money-on-the-sidelines into something that he suggests will drop by half twice in a decade. It seems someone went a little off script.
Just keep holding... it'll all be ok in the end...
Charts: Bloomberg
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Watta douchebag..........
What happened to BTFD? Jack wants you to buy the f---ing peak.
Are those nominal declines or real? Because that Dow 30,000 guy might still be right. It's just that we'll be using wampum.
Agree if it's in real terms tho.
They forgot to play the record player scratching needle sound effect when he said that!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9RwkNVqtog&sns=em
BTFD... But when is dip!?
The dip happens when you bend over to grab your ankles.
Jee. I won't retire in the next decade. I should probably time the dip buying and make it out like a bandit.
2 - 50% dips is irresistable. I will time it..
"Mr. Bogle...voted for Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, and plans to vote for Mr. Obama again."
- The New York Times, August 11, 2012.
Yet another hypocrite plutocrat.
Whatever.
Literally talking his book.
Cue your iPhones to play "BOOM" by P.O.D.
Here the comes the BOOM!
Here the comes the BOOM!
Ready or not!Here the comes the BOOM!
Here the comes the BOOM!
When?
Intraday... Apparently, buy when the DOW is down 30 (that seems to be the limit). Or go buy a gun and take the rest of the day off.
admit it tyler, you are the second to use ubiquitous today. at 15:53 comment number 3397249 in the stocton banc. rupt article...first mention...did i win?
edit ...thats one in the cooler..
If you're that impressed with the use of the word "ubiquitous" you should probably be rotating a dictionary into your blog reading schedule...
its ashame that a little comment, that is obviously tongue in cheek bothers you so much....
edit...thats 2 in the box...i will limit out soon..
Just keep holding (your gold)... it'll all be ok in the end.
If the situation is going to get ugly, then gold will continue to be the best investment. However, we must still wait for the market clearer signals. Today Wall Street fell (mainly Nasdaq). It's just a bad day and the market will test us. We are at a defining moment. The market will have to be defined. Continues to rise, sparking a new Secular Bull Market. Or instead, turns, starting third major correction (50% or more). But that will be defined in the following days.
So your saying that the market could go up, or it could go down and that Gold may or may not go up. Thanks for the heads-up.
Did Jack mention me by name: namely, 'Mr Muppet' or was he only making talk for the general muppet audience at large.
Jack "Bungle" and people like him are the ones responsible for the corporate governance problem, where executives who ruin their companies end up with golden parachutes in the hundreds of millions or billions. The mutual funds and ETF's just approve whatever management asks for rather than looking out for the interests of their investors.
Where's the clip? I'd like to see that.
That would finally shut up all the assholes who keep using the 80's and 90's as the basis for all stock market performance analysis. Two decades of zero return and substantially negative after fees/inflation. All the while we were robbed of interest.
Thanks Ben!
P.S this was April fools eh Tyler? No clip. I fell for it. Nice job.
http://tinyurl.com/btwhfmp here you go
the fed is in 'bail-out-mode' for 'europes' eye's only' with nuttin for us`sa!
Hopefully the 50% declines are days apart....
the 'pi'... has been rationalized
Now I don't feel so nervous about dumping my life savings over the past 8 years slowly into Beanie Babies stock.
haha great Aprils Fools Joke, Tyler.
@random shots
Almost fell for it. Hasn't the last 5 years all been an April Fool's joke?
Jack is a mutual fund guy - buy and hold. Then over time buy more and keep holding. Buy and holders got slaughtered in 2008 and many smaller investors got out at the bottom. His main point is a good one, that he has seen many big corrections, and that he thinks there will be more in the future. Where he is a little 'off base' is that he says the markets always recover. Yes, they recover, but only when the Fed creates massive bubbles. He is seemingly blind to the actual bubbles and their cause, and it is foolish to think that the Fed will always be there to inflate the next bubble.
not in treasuries. that thing soared on news of "yet another insane financing scheme blowing up Wall Street." there had better be a retracement sometime in the future...otherwise the hyperinflationists will indeed have a point. but a "jobless prosperity" can only carry the US economy so far. the theory that "all i need to do i have the Government create an American consumer for me the business guy" simply is not a viable business plan. you can devalue labor to the point where there is no economy to sell into anymore. "good luck taxing that."
50% dick lines ... as in lines of dicks who listen to some prick who says buy the fucking peak.
But......this time it's different
I HOPE WHEN THEY COME THEY'RE BACK TO BACK...LIKE A WEEK APART.
Nex decade? How about next week you fucking brain donor...
I saw the segment on CNBS.
I had to have my buddy smack me upside the head with a frying pan afterwards, to make sure I was awake.
It looks like Jack is trying to do a little 'pre-outflow' damage control for his funds.
http://www.google.com/finance?q=MUTF:VFINX (click on 10yr)
Tyler just played the fart game and all our mouths were open.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSZJJc3T1RQ
@fonzannoon
Now THAT is some serious cropdusting, my friend.
@Yen Cross
This is NOT an April Fools joke?
Of course it is. The second there was no clip I had a feeling. I should have known right away the king buy and hold putz would only be saying what he actually said, which was that you will double your money over the next decade.
No Joke fellas. Here's the clip/ http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000158038
Ha, he did say it. Wow. I heard him on a different clip saying the average return will be 7% for the next decade and you will double your money.
You will double your money despite two massive corrections. Is he completely senile?
@Yen Cross
Damn. Maybe so, but Jack can still always say, "April Fools, Bitchez!" And all will be well again.
Mean annual return over past 10 years is 0.75%, but people who buy Treasuries are "crazy" to not invest in equities.
Uh-huh.
I'd bet Vanguard made more than 0.75% a year in fees.
VTSAX (Total Stock Mkt Index) expense ratio is six basis points. VBTLX (Total Bond Market Index) is ten basis points.
Aw, shucks, and I thought it was different this time.
The old man's eyes boggled. Overcome by art. [/xmas story]
If anyone follows my comments from the top of the thread to here they should have little doubt going forward that I am one dumb asshole.
And isn't that the Wall Street game in a nutshell?
"Drip feed us your hard earned savings with every paycheck so we can make fees, bonuses, fat salaries, and gamble with it. When we crash the markets, you lose, we win. Remember to diversify your losses as we win coming and going and you lose no matter what."
Hahahaha. Jack Bogle Sees 2 declines up to 50% OVER NEXT DECADE. But, of course, investors Should not Wait For These dips to buy (I Suggests), as no one can time the markets. So he can see what happened in the decade while nobody can siguinte time of markets. Hahahaha.
@Stock Tips Investment
Whiskey-Tango-Foxtrot! Love how he nonchalantly says oh yeah, your net worth is gonna be more volatile than a coed on MDMA at Spring Break Fort Lauderdale, but don't worry. If there was ever one clip to explain why investors have left the market, this is it.
@ebworthen:
Hey, you must work for Blackrock, I think you wrote the perspectus I just revieved in the mail for my SLV shares, except you left out the very last line "And at the end of the day when the dust settles, we don't owe you shit".
Jack wants all you chumps to make his buddies like Jamie and Lloyd liquid so they can get in and out of the market preserving their net worth. Shit never changes. I don't care what generation of morons your dealing with. Quick!!!!! Shoe Shine Johnny or Jim the Jew Cramer says says buy stocks and the masses go wild and speculate their hard earned Jew confetti away like a compulsive gambler. I mean it's only fair you know you little people with all your social welfare schemes will be just fine. The Guberment will take good care of you........ Little do they know people like Warren and Soros and all the usual suspects know what is going to happen before it happens so they are perfectly positioned to buy your shares from you for .02cents on the dollar as you panic and sell your portfolio to preserve your precious Jew confetti. It is the greatest crime and scam ever perpetrated on humanity.
I say 2nd biggest scam in history ... at least he's asking you to put your money in.
Unlike in Cyprus, or with the Global Warming crowd, they want to just forcibly take your money, for your own good, of course. That is the world's biggest scam!!
Yeah maybe, I would just call that rape by goverments and financial sodomy. Tomato, tomaaaaaaahhhtow....
I suppose that buying equities would not be so bad IF:
A. We were actually buying ownership of the company and not: 1) a pseduo equity such as ETFs, 2) the DTCC did not maintain all ownership and make stock buyers simple beneficiaries of the stock. 3) when bond/debt ownership can wipe out equity ownership at anytime and with no recourse for the equity owners, 4) when execs can skim the vast majority of the benefits of ownership, with the willing approval of corrupt and interconnected boards.
B. Price reflected fundamentals and not aome bankko-poliically managed price for politico-econometric reasons.
Buy and Hold is crap marketing verbage. One of the top marketers in the business once sold toilet soap, to give you an idea of how stupid it is to pay any attention to this stuff. Holding a diversified asset allocation may make sense over time, but you would need to have 10-20% in a money market fund, hopefully without Lehman like paper, and have 20% in a bond fund that only held US T-bonds with >10 avg. maturity. Then if your equities very truely diversified globally, i.e. you owned the whole market, you would probably have an annualized return in the past 15 years that look like the net, net 3-5% total return. Meanwhile your broker or fund is skimming you for a percent per year while taking no risk. This is where the Vanguard value comes into play, however, since is you buying the market for diversification, you should be using them. The Load guys... This is the same industry that used to market bond funds to granny, telling them they were like CDs.
How many retirement accounts have 20% of their money in a bond fund holding only long-term US Government debt? 5 years ago it was hard to find a bond fund that wasn't loaded up with securitized mortgage crap, which is a joke because the marketers and portfolio managers killed their clients down side protection via that crap...where were the suitability lawsuits....all this to gain a few hundred basis points of extra TR??? Again, this is what happens when you have marketers making decisions.
The real problem is that such true diversification may now be dead on a buy and hold basis due to interest rates being so low. So now granny has to compete with Steve Cohen or hope that the FED Buys and holds till the second coming! Instead of Granny get your gun, its granny get your PHD or JD, if you can't make it back you can sue. Oh, there is one way to beat the system. Send your grand kids to Harvard and hope they get a job at a Primary Dealer, cause that liquidity is never coming out.
A better way to look at it would be "the liquidity will be coming out just it is not for you".
I think what Bogle may have been trying to say is, "This is as good as it gets now for 99% of all investors, and it really really sucks."
Buffett said it another way, "95% of all investors in the stock market shouldn't be there". That means you Mila Kunis.
LOL
I think Jack gets one thing wrong: that we will have TWO dips.
I think the next "dip" we will have is sovereign bonds (and its been a due dip. For countries like the UK, a 324-year-due-type-of-crash).
The Market's next "dip" will spur on its last........because it will be destroyed (and eventually replaced).
.... "all investors in the stock market". You must mean the "Investors" that are not robots?
I don't know how anybody can speak the word "investor" with a straight face when they are talking about US "markets". You are either playing along with the Feds agenda or you have no clue whats going on, calling it investing at this point is a joke.
I think Jack was trying to give the little guy a hint....without a full blown disclosure of the first 50% correctoin happening within the next 12 months. Otherwise the Illuminati will chop his head off and overnight it to the CEO of Vanguard....
Styx - Fooling Yourself
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtzIWPeun7c (5:25)
If you "buy and hold" any financial instrument other than physical precious metals, you will lose and the Wall Street boyz will win.
If you buy and hold physical precious metals, you will win and the Wall Street boyz will lose.
Any questions?
If you had all the money in the world you should pump the value ever higher then when you have enough pull the plug create the fall and because you were out first you fleeced the market.
missed one thing. and by again. low. sell high. in between ---- lie.
One fact to add to the discussion:
A diversified portfolio of 40% SPY,20% IJR, 20% IJH, 15% EFA, 5% EEM (modified Nick Murray) has returned 120% over the last 10 years. People that follow him and do what he says have done ok for themselves. The key is to keep investing regardless to what the market is doing. I know a bunch of people sitting in cash that wish they would followed such advice.
fact: a holdings of 35% cash 35% gold 30% silver would have outperformed what you listed in the same time-frame by a long-shot. 120% or 2.2x factor in only 10 years is pitiful: annualized that's only 8.2% per year and with inflation steadily rising from 5% to 10% in that time across the majority of goods one needs that's a ludicrously small real return. NO thanks. I'm better off just SPENDING the money on things that will last or things I'll truly enjoy just that once before I'm old and slow.
I heard this lying, sinile old dinosaur today on CNBC touting his efficient market crapola. He forgot disclosure....it helps Vanguard if people (read, suckers) buy and hold no matter what.
He said he winessed 3 50% market haircuts in his lifetime....in the early 70's and twice in 7 years this last decade.....HELLO....computer trading now Bogleheads....
Crashes of 50% are most often or maybe even always caused by bad govt. policies. He must have little faith in our political future, neither do i. I believe he is right about double crashes in 10 years. Worse, i do not see an end to boom and bust after ten years. His investment advice is johnny one note.
My, that chart looks familiar!