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Manufacturing ISM Tumbles, Biggest Miss In 13 Months
Typically, when the ISM-leading Chicago PMI has a horrible print as it did last week, the subsequent ISM response in a "baffle with BS" centrally planned regime is one of a stunning beat just to make sure all vacuum tubes are kept on their binary toes, and the bad news is good news, good news is better news meme continues propagating. Not this time: moments ago, the March ISM printed at 51.3, the biggest miss to expectations (of 54.0) in 13 months, in fact below the lowest estimate, driven by a collapse in New Orders which tumbled from 57.8 to 51.4, as the rapid deceleration in the US economy is confirmed in virtually every recent metric. The good news, and what will be used to spin the market back into green following its epic 0.2% selloff on the news, is that the Employment Index rose from 52.6 to 54.2, the highest since June 2012. Elsewhere, the 1.2% increase in construction spending came in better than estimated... on a seasonally adjusted basis. Unadjusted it had its biggest drop since July 2011 but who cares: we all live in a seasonally-adjusted "reality" in which only the daily record S&P prints matter. And now, with yet another economic miss in tow, we resume your regularly scheduled no-volume Federal Reserve mandated "stock market" levitation.
Per the release:
"The PMI™ registered 51.3 percent, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from February's reading of 54.2 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for the fourth consecutive month, but at a slower rate. Both the New Orders and Production Indexes reflected growth in March compared to February, albeit at slower rates, registering 51.4 and 52.2 percent, respectively. The Employment Index registered 54.2, an increase of 1.6 percentage points compared to February's reading of 52.6 percent. The Prices Index decreased 7 percentage points to 54.5, and the list of commodities up in price reflected far fewer items than in February. In addition, the Backlog of Orders, Exports and Imports Indexes all grew in March."
From the respondents:
- "Beginning to feel the seasonal upswing in business — energy and resin remain a concern." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products)
- "Medical reimbursements from insurance companies, particularly Medicare, are slowing." (Miscellaneous Manufacturing)
- "While the second half of 2013 looks promising, the first half is a mixed bag." (Computer & Electronic Products)
- "Things seem slightly better than last year, but still not great." (Printing & Related Support Activities)
- "Automotive is still very strong." (Fabricated Metal Products)
- "Post-election in the U.S. — companies within the oil and gas sector are still waiting for signs of some regulatory certainty or stability." (Petroleum & Coal Products)
- "Reduced government spending in the defense sector lowers business output." (Transportation Equipment)
- "Business is continuing to be brisk." (Furniture & Related Products)
- "Market continues to be strong, and our production is exceeding plans at this time." (Wood Products)
- "Sales are low, even adjusted for seasonal variation." (Chemical Products)
Full release here
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Bullish, more QE down the road
Backlog of orders only 1 pt away from contracting......
Again remember, this is PROPAGANDA DATA. The real data is way worse.
how do you know?
who told you?
I've lived in a totaliarian country for quite a long time in the past. I can recognize sheer data idiocy just looking at them.
In communism we used to be told that the economy is not doing well due to .......WEATHER. It's cold in winter and hot in the summer.
Does it ring a bell?
I would guess the "real" numbers are double of what is posted.
It is NATURALLY IMPOSSIBLE to get manufacturing growth with crude oil at above $90 for 18+ months.
Economy rebounded from 2009 not because of QE but because crude oil was $40-50 which is the normal price, right before QE started.
QE came out, then oil tookoff. QE has ruined the economy.
It is NATURALLY IMPOSSIBLE to get manufacturing growth with crude oil at above $90 for 18+ months.
DING DING DING !!!!
WE HAVE A DOUBLE WINNER !!!!!
Economy rebounded from 2009 not because of QE but because crude oil was $40-50 which is the normal price, right before QE started.
OOHHH !!!!........then he BLEW IT !!!
Yes my friend....some of oil price is QE related.....but most is because we have run out of the cheap stuff. Fracking, Canadian Tar Sands and VERY deep water extraction....(along with pie in the sky plans to drill the artic) are all signs that the days of sticking a straw in the ground and getting light sweet crude....(much less shooting the ground ala Jed Clampett) are over.
Hey but two out three ain't bad.
Wrong.
Don't you listen to ANYTHING Obama says!?
Expensive Oil is because of the evil speculators. Not QE or The Bernank.
High Oil price is to keep OPEC on the petro-dollar
There is good chance that is the case, but it can't continue forever. It is not in opec's interest that the western economies collapse.
OPEC could care less about the western economies
I've lived in a totaliarian country for quite a long time in the past. I can recognize sheer data idiocy just looking at them.
DING DING DING !!!
We have a WINNER !!!!!
I told him.
Real products, require real inputs and energy, good fucking luck. Can someone remind me what the real value of all this monetization/financialization is? Long guillotines and sharecropping...
Give me plenty of energy, I give you REAL GOOD DATA.
You keep reminding people of this, they keep forgetting it.
What, you mean we can't export litigation?
LOL
I would argue that litigation and financial "products" of mass destruction are two things the U.S. has been very successful at exporting. Blowback is gonna be a bitch.
You left out two more:
3) Fraud
4) War
April always contracts. To many holliday days in the month.
that one point will be erase in the comming weeks and next month we're in contraction.
ON CYBERTRON THEY ARE GODS!!!
And over here we call them machines.... that don't work 100%...
Who needs manufacturing when you've got a printing press- dr bernak
Let's see how Obama's approval rating will keep doing with crude oil 100% overpriced in hyperinflation for 18 + months already.
Just remember also, these are government PROPAGANDA data. Imagine the real data, a loooooot worse.
Exactly, 'all-is-well' just like Cyprus until one morning everyone in the U.S. is wondering 'Hey, what happened to all my money it's gone!'
"with crude oil 100% overpriced in hyperinflation for 18 + months already." -
Please, educate yourself and go talk to an engineer for an oil company. The fed is printing 85 billion per month (that we know of). Priced in dollars, oil will go higher, so will physical gold.
Oh I have already done my homework.
Media says that canadian oil sands cost price is $70/barrel. Reality is that it's $35/barrel.
Furthermore, it's not the engineers that control that price. It's the middlemen Blackrock, JPM, Bridgewater,GS who own huge tankers onshore and off shore.
The price in fiat is irrelevant. How much energy in calories must be consumed to deliever the final product. Once more calories (or Joules if you prefer) must be consumed compared with the calories or Joules recovered, the "price" is irrelevant. Go talk to an engineer about how many Joules of energy go into delivering the final product and how many Joules you get out of burning (oxidizing the product). Moreover, these distillates are used as feedstocks for many other chemical products. There is a reason why all this is subsidized. The middlemen are a problem, but irrelevant as all they do is hasten the collapse. Bring it, roll the guillotines and take out the middlemen, any other outcome, isn't going to "fix" anything.
Disagree.
EROEI is quite manipulated for political purpose.
Whether or not you agree, is irrelevant. Go talk to some rig workers and an engineer. The "politicians" are also irrelevant. Go talk to those who actually get the stuff out of the ground, they can tell you precisely how much work goes into the extraction process. You can only do that work if you have excess calories to spend.
Reality is that it's $35/barrel.
BULLSHIT !!!
It's a physical reality that scraping that stillborn (petrolium speaking) shit out of the ground, extracting the sand and dirt, chemically treating to bring it up to spec, storing and transporting....altogether....costs WAY too much in input costs to be anywhere CLOSE to profitable (well....an exceptible profit to an oil company exec) at $35 dollars a barrel. Particularly looking at the cost of paying the Cannucks salary, union costs, universal health care, taxes, etc..etc....
I've done my homework.
You either believe me or do not believe me.
Disagree.
EROEI is quite manipulated for political purpose.
Really????
http://williammclennan.files.wordpress.com/2011/04/ca09-148.jpg
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Wtv1yXaLG30/T1-Zemck0YI/AAAAAAAAImM/RU7ReJhSaK...
http://thinkprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/TarSands.jpg
http://corpethics.org/img/original/tsc_pipe.jpg
http://www.dominionpaper.ca/weblogs/dru/2121
http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/tarsands/
http://ostseis.anl.gov/guide/tarsands/
http://priceofoil.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/tar-sands1.jpg
OH YEAH....THAT LOOKS CHEAPER.....LOL !!!!
I've done my homework too....been looking into this for the last 8 years.....mostly at tar sand company data.
You're full of shit.
Fine
I have the right to disagree.
Yes you do, won't change what the facts are either. I suggest putting your fingers in your ears and going "nah, nah, nah, nah..."
Fine
I have the right to disagree.
Of course you have that right silly. But you look at the costs too narrowly and too naively. On paper everything should work....but in reality nothing works as it seems. Thus is the human equation. Looking at just pure extraction costs you MIGHT be able to make a play on paper that tar sand oil should be $35 dollars a barrel and profitable to boot. But this ignores other costs...some long term....such as envrionmental damage and clean-up, water usage, the amount of energy needed just to run the equipment and refineries on site...etc...etc....
Health care costs from this type of oil extraction....the list goes on and on. It is most legitimate to look at government costs from onerous taxation to regulation. But corporate malfeasance and the crashing down of utopian, pie in the sky projections when smacked in the face by reality also must come into play in anyone's calculation of true (well....tru-er) costs.
Less Ayn Rand and more reality please.
Let's use facts rather than conjecture....
Why do you think BP drilled the deep horizon well? Was it for their health? If there were better and easier geological formations brimming with oil, don't you think one of the largest oil companies in the world would invest there rather than a risky investment... if they had a choice?
My point is that we are currently running anywhere from 9-7 to 1 for new wells..... for every one barrel of oil of energy consumed, the well might return anywhere from 7 to 9 barrels of oil as product. The replacement wells, though, are being depleted at a faster rate due to numerous factors to include....there's just less oil in the same levels of concentration. We've punched so many holes that the choices are to go for the increasingly more difficult extraction options. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that in 1900, we were getting 100 to 1....... and now.... not so much....that we are on a harsh declining curve. Additionally, there is more demand coming on line, even with the great recession. There will be energy in the future... it just won't be cheap. It will change the available standard of living for most of the developed world.
ive been pumping 85bill. gallons of water in my pool since jan 1....my pool is lookng good....my neighbors yards not so much.....my pool only holds 20,000 gals but im going to keep filling it ...who cares if my neighbors think they live in venice....what could go wrong...
I am not sure it is overpriced if there is hyperinflation. Unaffordable, but properly priced might be the better wording.
Are we pretending that fundamentals matter this morning.
The print was awful, but not exactly like capital markets and economic performance are related.
Monetary policy not economic performance determines capital market performance.The former uses capital markets as both a transmission mechanism and feedback loop in otherword tis a "total clusterfuck"........resurrection and all.
Always remember that PROPAGANDA DATA is way, way, way better than reality
Every day that bad figures come out and the market mysteriously levitates courtesy of the educated fool Bernanke, increases the odds of a severe correction.
DavidC
I want to believe that. I need to believe that. I just don't know what actually counters 85 billion a month. If anyone knows I'm listening.
85 billion plagues and locutst counter 85 billion FED ClownBux?
I'm not even sure if the question can even be answered....it's like asking 'What can possibly compare to unicorns farting gold dust?'
I just don't know.
It's 115 billion if you include the MBS principal reinvestment.
I wish it mattered
Silver also tumbled. Worst performance among all the commodities
"Silver also tumbled. Worst performance among all the commodities" - Are you talking about paper commodities, or physical. Big difference.
I totally uparrowed EV, but not for the reasons EV thinks.
Can't wait for the stampede out of schtocks.. it's going to be awesome. It's getting late in the Game stock monkeys. Fundamentals of a weak Economy can only be ignored for so long.
85 billion per month is going into stocks. Fundamentals can be ignored right up until WWIII starts.
Recovery? Not so much.
What do we manufacture? Pls remind me again.
It's mostly military related stuff. The rest of economy is shipped overseas.
That's why all this gun control idiocy is just propaganda.
Nobody is out of mind, even Obama, to put the brakes on the only thing USA has got going.
Facebook
brainwashed sheep....
fed lies: growing.......faster
fed deception: growing.....faster
govt centralized control.......growing....faster
national debt: growing....faster.......
Open the storage facilities. The channel stuffing is so maxed out the pigeons ain't got nowhere to act pigeon in.
Bullish on "Funemployment"!
I've spoken to a few vendors who sell firearms. They have told me the gun makers and ammo producers are working three shifts a day producing as much as they can. They simply can't do more business.
One outdoor chain has tried to obtain 9mm and .223 ammo any way they can. They haven't had any in stock for two months. Local cops have come in asking to purchase ammo because their departments are running low. When the buyer contacted his ammo vendor, he was told all production has been bought. Federal contracts come first and there isn't much left to fulfill state law enforcement contracts. Retail orders simply can not be filled.
This is starting to have a huge impact on gun sales because people do not want to purchase a firearm they can not buy ammo for. Another huge problem is that guns that can fire the ammo stores have in stock are not popular, or are difficult for first time owners to handle. A Mosin Nagant really isn't practical for most people, ammo is plentiful though.
While gun makers and gn shops have enjoyed a few years of record sales, it seems the new gun control strategy is to starve them out. You might not be able to ban the guns, but you can make them worthless. Make sure to thank your local DHS agent, maybe you can buy some ammo from him.
I think it's got a lot to do with GDP artificial boost.
Scaring people into buying guns and ammo increases the GDP. Gov buying ammo increases the GDP.
Approval ratings are important. There's nothing else going on and I know I'm preaching to the choir.
No guns or ammo left except at crazy high prices...glad I stored up long ago.
Where there is demand there will be supply.
Don't worry it's coming. Business can't catch up immediately to sudden increased demand. It takes time for the supply chain to complete from raw to finished products if something unusual happens.
The only thing that may hold them back are the raw materials.
You need metal to make a bullet. If you can only obtain enough to produce 100 million rounds a month, yet you have a DHS contract for 1 billion rounds, you will not be able to produce any ammo for retail until that government contract is filled.
One more reason for the obscene government orders. If the order can't be filled, no orders can be filled.
You aren't ever going to see mass availability of standard ammo types again. Gun makers are going to need to produce new handguns of different caliber in order to allow the production of ammo that can be sold to retail.
Exactly what I'm saying, thank you. It takes time to re-adjust, but they will if the demand stays high.
You're a businessman, you won't purchase all that input material if you wouldn't be 100% sure that the demand would stay high.
Maybe the goal is to essentially seize all forward demand (and hijack the suppy chain) of metals mining.
Stand by for bargains when the hysteria suddenly fades and the companies are over stocked. Assuming this is not he Big One, that is. If it is, I'd appreciate your support in my campaign for Lord of the Flies.
And Gold and silver had a heart attack; flatlined deader than a doornail.
Markets close sometimes, guy.
pricing pressures are now deflating in the energy patch...with food soon to follow. the Fed has pursued a policy of combating "potential deflation" since Day 1 of this catastrophe...appears now to have been the correct call. Government "disbursements" i think will now fall DRAMATICALLY at the Federal level as simply put "the money is not there." all eyes on the certain States that kept their Eyes on the Prize of sound economic planning and execution as some States come out huge winners...and others do nothing but continue to lose. i do agree "things should be a lot worse than they in fact are." i'm sure there's a war somewhere everyone can get all lathered up about. i'll be waiting for the Mea Culpa from the "collapsionists" however.
+ for the fed limerick!
Gold was slammed down in the typical, predictable, 10:30am manipulation. Nothing new to see here...except perhaps for the fact that they can no longer bring it down $10/oz per smack. Only $2-$3/oz = decreasing marginal efficiency.
Awesome! QE now a proven an obvious total failure to anyone with half a functioning brain, but we'll get MORE of it so that's very good news!
WOW someone stop this stupid ride I'm sick of it.
they will always say it just wasn't big enough.
You can get off the ride anytime you like, but you can never leave.
[que sweet guitar solo]
Hey, I got it. That's from my favorite Beagles LP, "Carnival California".
BBG is pimping the Construction Spending number (and ignoring that it dropped from prior print).
QE was only effective with a slightly growing Economy and only for speculative assets..a declining Economy no way. It's all based on levarege and margin, from schtocks, Real estate, junk bonds.. all of it! A proverbial orgy of margin speculation!
The V shape reovery is here. Enjoy it folks
http://www.ftportfolios.com/Commentary/EconomicResearch/2013/4/1/the-v-i...
;0)
Hey, but it's Growing... Just slower. :)
Real inventory at retailers is way down. In effect becoming showrooms. It makes the stores look full, but there is nothing behind it. Stocks of grills, patio furniture, and other home goods are lower than the start of 2009. Seems the retailer is trying to create demand by restricting inventory. When you've had to mark down 50% of what you bought by more than 60% to get it out the door fr the past four years, it seems to have an effect.
If you truly had a massive housing recovery, wouldn't that stuff be flying off the shelves?
Best Buy is going to stock less than three units of the 2013 model big screen TVs per store. Some stores will receive 0 inventory. If you want one, it will be ordered and shipped to the store.
The latest push from retail is zero inventory risk. They are asking vendors to store all the inventory and ship on demand. Large bulk inventory purchases are just about nill. This places a huge burden on independent vendors and severely restricts cash flow. How can you run a business not having any clue what will come in or go out each month?
Walmart and Dick's Sporting Goods are in severe financial distress. It is being hidden as much as possible, but people within the industry are noticing problems. You can't operate a giant store when 5% of it is producing positive sales.
Keep giving us this info ADR.
Very, very, very much appreciated.
You are welcome. I am directly connected to what I call, "Fly Over Retail". I don't sell to luxury retail, but have in the past. It is hard to see numbers day after day that don't jive with the language I hear from those in my business.
Ultra-Lux retail is doing more business than they have in years. Brands like Coach and Uggs, not so much. Coach is actually a peasant brand now, faux luxury. The wife of a hedge funder wouldn't be caught dead with a brand the peasants carry. Uggs have run their course. Once the ghetto market starts running around in them, it's pretty much over.
Saks and Nordstrom should have a good quarter. However, most of the Ultra-Lux buying is concetrated to a few areas, and much of it is boutique buying. The 1% likes to buy exclusive merchandise from exclusive shops the 99% don't have access to.
The product moving huge numbers right now is Under Armour backpacks. They are the new Jansport for high school right now.
It's even worse here in Yurope/UK.
Been trying to source Lenovo Thinkpad Tablet 2s (and other latest tech tablets/convertibles, that are selling like HOTCAKES in Asia) forever: either it's on a 2-3 months wait (Hur-hur, production hasn't started in capacity, hur-dur due to no demand hur-dur-dur), or there isn't even an est. delivery date specified.
Those motherfuckers. Fucking peasant Europe.
WTB M$ Surface Pro in Yurope, k.
Pm's are the lei.. they lead out of the bottom in 08 and topped in May 2011. Stocks are way way overvalued and in lala land. I like pm's but they do best in a Growing Vibrant Economy.. esp silver.
Dicks sporting goods, stock is near a High and the stores are always empty. Bens magic elixir. Nothing makes sense with it.
Ed Stack is very well connected to bankers and Wall Street insiders. Dick's was planned as a stock scam from the start in the early 1990s.
He made a load of money for himself and those he knows loading up his stores with Skull Candy and Shock Doctor. Dick's is like the GM of the sporting goods world, channel stuffing extraordinaire. Dick's annual report is a complete joke.
Nike and Under Armour are being loaded to the gills. To of course support the stocks of those two corporations.
My family actually knows Ed. In the late 80s he told my grandfather he was planning to build a nationwide chain of huge sporting goods stores the size of a K-Mart. He had secured money from Wall Street and the company would go public quickly. Ed also needed an excuse to visit his mistress in Pittsburgh.
My grandfather told him "Good luck", since Sporting Goods stores were closing left and right. The number of kids actively playing sports was plummeting. My grandfather was looking through the eyes of actual business, not running a scam to sell off shares. Eh, such is life. The fraudsters have complete control.
Holy shit Batman, I can take my ROSE colored glasses off. The markets are actually trading in the RED!
I love the comment:
"Things seem slightly better than last year, but still not great."
Read: It seems business is better but we don't use fancy metrics like "revenue" or "sales", but I mean just look at how those chicken bones are scattered. That's got to be good right?
And in July when the market is in the tank, these "experts" will surprisingly come back and adjust numbers - look everyone, no lying.
I don't believe these numbers for a second - anything to keep them above 50.
Just like Cyprus (in January everything is fine - in March deposits are confiscated).
Weak US data and people buy the euro? It wasn't that long ago that weak US data resulted in the euro being sold.
"The euro should be weaker, but it hasn't weakened," Mark Mobius said. "That's the amazing thing, means there are people out there holding euro and even buying euro, it's a very strange phenomenon."
Same thing with the gbp. The $ is still being treated as a risk currency.(not safe haven) It's weakening across the board. I think we need a bigger (equity market) move, and then you will see a reversion back into long $ vs the risk currencies. Silver and copper are getting hit, but the T10 is up 2bps. The market is batshit crazy right now.
Consolidation on thin liquidity.
Wait till tomorrow's PMIs, Italian & E-Z Unemployment, German CPIs.
BULLISH!!!
Benny and the media says that we have been in recovery for over 3 years. Would these trusted sources ever lie to us?
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